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NFT: Mets Thread - Happy Winter Meetings To All!!!

Shecky : 12/4/2023 10:28 am
- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.

Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.

Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:

Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.

Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.

Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
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the bassitt contract last year is a template i hope nym find a way to  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 10:22 am : link
match with 1 of the remaining SP on the board whether it's montgomery, imanaga, or giolito.

all 3 are multiple years younger so it makes sense if the deal length ends up 4 or 5 years instead of 3, but getting a solid #3 who can throw 180+ innings for the next several years behind senga would check a big box if they don't like snell. other than senga bassitt was one of FAs great values last year. i have to think they like how the stuff of at least one of those guys projects forward even if they havent yet come down to a price they like.
bassitt got 3x21m at age 34  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 10:26 am : link
the median projections on those 3 are:

Jordan Montgomery 31 / $122.50M x 5.0 ($24.50M)
Shōta Imanaga 30 / $80.00M x 4.0 ($20.00M)
Lucas Giolito 29 / $49.50M x 3.0 ($16.50M)

i think giolito may make most sense taking a 1 year deal (or 2 year with opt out). the other 2 seem likely to get 4 or 5 years.

ironically after all said and done, yamamoto's AAV ended up close to the projections since the deal length got almost twice as long (was originally projected at 7 or 8 years).
I  
DanMetroMan : 12/24/2023 10:28 am : link
personally would sign Giolito and then *2* of the Paxton level group, run out a 6 man rotation and certainly not "give up" on 2024 but use 2024 as an audition + yes, trade chips in mind.


Would give you the following SPers

Senga, Quintana, Giolito, Houser, 2 of Paxton/Ryu/Montas

+ Megill, Peterson + the Vasil, Scott etc arms.

I'd be happy with Montomery as well, but this wouldn't be a terrible approach
RE: bassitt got 3x21m at age 34  
DanMetroMan : 12/24/2023 10:30 am : link
In comment 16332673 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
the median projections on those 3 are:

Jordan Montgomery 31 / $122.50M x 5.0 ($24.50M)
Shōta Imanaga 30 / $80.00M x 4.0 ($20.00M)
Lucas Giolito 29 / $49.50M x 3.0 ($16.50M)

i think giolito may make most sense taking a 1 year deal (or 2 year with opt out). the other 2 seem likely to get 4 or 5 years.

ironically after all said and done, yamamoto's AAV ended up close to the projections since the deal length got almost twice as long (was originally projected at 7 or 8 years).



Ideally Giolito 1 year with a second year option (it'll be a player option if he takes a 1 year deal) BUT if he pitches well that option gives you an "easy" path to an extension if he pitches pretty well.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Interesting  
BigBlueShock : 12/24/2023 10:59 am : link
In comment 16332557 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16332490 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332486 DanMetroMan said:


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the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)



soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.

i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.

i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.



Okay Captain Obvious. Since the Nats traded him because he turned down $440M+ over two years ago, everyone and their brother knew he was going to go for more than $500M. And water is wet.

You also seem to fail to grasp the basics of payroll construction. The Yanks have the least problem of anyone to sign Soto. He will pulls down something in the range of $33M in arbitration. That means to sign him to a $50M per deal, they only have to find an additional $17M- where every other team has to find $50M to give him.

Just letting go of Rizzo and his $20M for luxury tax purposes achieves that goal.



okay captain missing the obvious where did i say the yankees would have a "problem" resigning soto?

the last couple weeks have made it pretty clear that nyy fans do occasionally need to read met fans to understand their payroll, so let me help translate the bolded parts my post for you:

"more restricted in this bidding war" = yamamoto negotiation, you know the one where the yankees just lost because they refused to increase their offer when given the chance

"that one is going to be more important" = soto next year

The Yankees offer was for a higher AAV than either the Dodgers or the Mets. That doesn’t align with your theory that they were so concerned about Soto and/or the luxury tax penalties. They didn’t want to go past 10 years for a SP. if they weee so concerned about the luxury tax, the offer they had on the table wouldn’t make sense. The issue was the years, not the money
RE: RE: The Cole thing is absolute spin.  
rich in DC : 12/24/2023 11:08 am : link
In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:


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100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.


No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.

The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.


Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.

The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.

Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.
Why are mongo Yankees fans hangin around Mets fans' threads?  
Optimus-NY : 12/24/2023 11:51 am : link
?
RE: RE: RE: The Cole thing is absolute spin.  
JayBinQueens : 12/24/2023 11:55 am : link
In comment 16332697 rich in DC said:
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In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:


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100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.



No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.

The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.


Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.

The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.

Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.


Has there been any reporting that there was no deferrals etc with the Yankees offer?


Can't wait for them to lose Soto next offseason
How about we put a moratorium on people being a complete dick to each  
CooperDash : 12/24/2023 12:12 pm : link
other over the next couple of days, lol.
RE: How about we put a moratorium on people being a complete dick to each  
Drewcon40 : 12/24/2023 1:09 pm : link
In comment 16332750 CooperDash said:
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other over the next couple of days, lol.

RE: RE: RE: RE: The Cole thing is absolute spin.  
Dave in Hoboken : 12/24/2023 1:13 pm : link
In comment 16332728 JayBinQueens said:
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In comment 16332697 rich in DC said:


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In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:


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100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.



No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.

The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.


Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.

The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.

Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.



Has there been any reporting that there was no deferrals etc with the Yankees offer?


Can't wait for them to lose Soto next offseason


Wouldn't hold my breath on that now that Yamamoto went to LA.
RE: RE: RE: The Cole thing is absolute spin.  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 3:13 pm : link
In comment 16332697 rich in DC said:
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In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:


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100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.



No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.

The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.


Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.

The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.

Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.


Interesting, so in your statistically trained opinion why do you suppose he took less to play for a team other than Yankees?
RE: I  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 3:18 pm : link
In comment 16332674 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
personally would sign Giolito and then *2* of the Paxton level group, run out a 6 man rotation and certainly not "give up" on 2024 but use 2024 as an audition + yes, trade chips in mind.


Would give you the following SPers

Senga, Quintana, Giolito, Houser, 2 of Paxton/Ryu/Montas

+ Megill, Peterson + the Vasil, Scott etc arms.

I'd be happy with Montomery as well, but this wouldn't be a terrible approach


I don’t mind the approach on field I just hate having 5/6 expire next year. Even if 2 work out well enough you extend them, you are filling 3/6 again from fa next year.

My ideal is Montgomery or imanaga on 4-5 years, then a 1 year. Ideally giolito bc he has the best workload track record but I’d be ok with Montas or manaea too.

And if the price for snell ends up closer to Nola, I’d be all over that.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Interesting  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 3:22 pm : link
In comment 16332689 BigBlueShock said:
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In comment 16332557 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332549 rich in DC said:


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In comment 16332490 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332486 DanMetroMan said:


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the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)



soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.

i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.

i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.



Okay Captain Obvious. Since the Nats traded him because he turned down $440M+ over two years ago, everyone and their brother knew he was going to go for more than $500M. And water is wet.

You also seem to fail to grasp the basics of payroll construction. The Yanks have the least problem of anyone to sign Soto. He will pulls down something in the range of $33M in arbitration. That means to sign him to a $50M per deal, they only have to find an additional $17M- where every other team has to find $50M to give him.

Just letting go of Rizzo and his $20M for luxury tax purposes achieves that goal.



okay captain missing the obvious where did i say the yankees would have a "problem" resigning soto?

the last couple weeks have made it pretty clear that nyy fans do occasionally need to read met fans to understand their payroll, so let me help translate the bolded parts my post for you:

"more restricted in this bidding war" = yamamoto negotiation, you know the one where the yankees just lost because they refused to increase their offer when given the chance

"that one is going to be more important" = soto next year


The Yankees offer was for a higher AAV than either the Dodgers or the Mets. That doesn’t align with your theory that they were so concerned about Soto and/or the luxury tax penalties. They didn’t want to go past 10 years for a SP. if they weee so concerned about the luxury tax, the offer they had on the table wouldn’t make sense. The issue was the years, not the money


So what stopped them from increasing their offer another $25m over the same number of fewer years?

Aav would still be lower than Cole as would be the total amount after they guarantee the extra year so he doesn’t opt out (which they are going to do anyway).
RE: RE: RE: RE: The Cole thing is absolute spin.  
rich in DC : 12/24/2023 3:27 pm : link
In comment 16332972 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16332697 rich in DC said:


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In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:


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.



100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.



No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.

The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.


Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.

The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.

Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.



Interesting, so in your statistically trained opinion why do you suppose he took less to play for a team other than Yankees?


Simple- he WANTED to go the Dodgers- the Mets and Yanks got played.

Áou entire theory has been debunked repeatedly here. Give up and find another post to troll on
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: The Cole thing is absolute spin.  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 3:36 pm : link
In comment 16332995 rich in DC said:
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In comment 16332972 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332697 rich in DC said:


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In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:


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.



100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.



No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.

The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.


Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.

The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.

Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.



Interesting, so in your statistically trained opinion why do you suppose he took less to play for a team other than Yankees?



Simple- he WANTED to go the Dodgers- the Mets and Yanks got played.

Áou entire theory has been debunked repeatedly here. Give up and find another post to troll on


ok so why do you suppose he gave the yankees a chance to match the $325m?

here in reality we met fans can accept the fact that he didn't give cohen a chance to beat the lad offer because he didnt want to come here. apologies if not wearing pinstripe goggles feels like trolling to you, but plain as day it has been reported the yankees had a chance to raise their bid and they refused.
and just to save some time if your answer is "he wanted a bidding war"  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 3:43 pm : link
then why didnt he go back to the mets, who almost certainly would have raised their offer and actually participated in a bidding war, but never got the chance?

you guys are seeing ghosts when the answer is plainly obvious. the yankees had a chance to get a guy they've been scouting, hyping, and holding out a uniform for and in the end they self selected not getting him by refusing to match the highest bid.

you want to think that had nothing to do with money by all means go ahead but that $25m spread over 10 (or more) years is perhaps the only reason they didnt get him.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Interesting  
BigBlueShock : 12/24/2023 3:49 pm : link
In comment 16332991 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16332689 BigBlueShock said:


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In comment 16332557 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332549 rich in DC said:


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In comment 16332490 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332486 DanMetroMan said:


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the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)



soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.

i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.

i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.



Okay Captain Obvious. Since the Nats traded him because he turned down $440M+ over two years ago, everyone and their brother knew he was going to go for more than $500M. And water is wet.

You also seem to fail to grasp the basics of payroll construction. The Yanks have the least problem of anyone to sign Soto. He will pulls down something in the range of $33M in arbitration. That means to sign him to a $50M per deal, they only have to find an additional $17M- where every other team has to find $50M to give him.

Just letting go of Rizzo and his $20M for luxury tax purposes achieves that goal.



okay captain missing the obvious where did i say the yankees would have a "problem" resigning soto?

the last couple weeks have made it pretty clear that nyy fans do occasionally need to read met fans to understand their payroll, so let me help translate the bolded parts my post for you:

"more restricted in this bidding war" = yamamoto negotiation, you know the one where the yankees just lost because they refused to increase their offer when given the chance

"that one is going to be more important" = soto next year


The Yankees offer was for a higher AAV than either the Dodgers or the Mets. That doesn’t align with your theory that they were so concerned about Soto and/or the luxury tax penalties. They didn’t want to go past 10 years for a SP. if they weee so concerned about the luxury tax, the offer they had on the table wouldn’t make sense. The issue was the years, not the money



So what stopped them from increasing their offer another $25m over the same number of fewer years?

Aav would still be lower than Cole as would be the total amount after they guarantee the extra year so he doesn’t opt out (which they are going to do anyway).

It’s really freakin simple. They had their number and they weren’t going to exceed it. Why is this so difficult to grasp? They already offered the highest AAV. On a 10 year contract. The fact they went as high as they did should instantly dismiss your little theory of them being afraid of the luxury tax.I don’t blame them for not just simply handing him a blank check. They had their value on what his worth was. Period.
RE: and just to save some time if your answer is  
rich in DC : 12/24/2023 3:51 pm : link
In comment 16333006 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
then why didnt he go back to the mets, who almost certainly would have raised their offer and actually participated in a bidding war, but never got the chance?

you guys are seeing ghosts when the answer is plainly obvious. the yankees had a chance to get a guy they've been scouting, hyping, and holding out a uniform for and in the end they self selected not getting him by refusing to match the highest bid.

you want to think that had nothing to do with money by all means go ahead but that $25m spread over 10 (or more) years is perhaps the only reason they didnt get him.


No- you are the one blinded with Yanks hate and trying to make a case that has no factual basis.

The Yanks made a bid that actually had a higher AAV, had TWO opt outs- which were both a year earlier than the Dodgers and actually was a better deal financially since under the Yanks bid, he would have been a FA at 35, not 37 like the Dodgers deal.

The Mets effectively made the same offer as the Dodgers and never got the chance to up their bid.

All of that tells you that Yamamoto had ZERO interest in signing in NY. Good on the Yanks for recognizing that upping their bid wasn’t going to get it done- they made a better offer and the Mets made the same offer as the Dodgers- and he still choose the Dodgers.

If you STILL cannot see that the NY teams got played, that’s your bias showing.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: The Cole thing is absolute spin.  
JayBinQueens : 12/24/2023 3:58 pm : link
In comment 16332995 rich in DC said:
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In comment 16332972 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332697 rich in DC said:


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In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:


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In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer

Áou entire theory has been debunked repeatedly here. Give up and find another post to troll on


You're literally in the Mets thread ya dingus
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Interesting  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 4:41 pm : link
In comment 16333008 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:



So what stopped them from increasing their offer another $25m over the same number of fewer years?

Aav would still be lower than Cole as would be the total amount after they guarantee the extra year so he doesn’t opt out (which they are going to do anyway).


It’s really freakin simple. They had their number and they weren’t going to exceed it. Why is this so difficult to grasp? They already offered the highest AAV. On a 10 year contract. The fact they went as high as they did should instantly dismiss your little theory of them being afraid of the luxury tax.I don’t blame them for not just simply handing him a blank check. They had their value on what his worth was. Period.


i know you are a nyy fan who probably hasnt been tracking the 2k+ posts of mets offseason threads, but it might surprise you to know that nothing about that is difficult to grasp because it's exactly what i've expected since the nyy got soto. you are right it is really simple, once you add a $500m+ player you want to keep for a decade it's harder to then go spend another $400m+ on a different player over the same decade. unless of course 1 of those players is willing to defer 95%+ of their compensation for a decade.

literally had this whole discussion with a different nyy fan who jumped in a few days ago before yamamoto made his decision.

In comment 16328225 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16328144 Eric on Li said:


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the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”



if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year.

boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV.

soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav.

a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.


Yankees fan here. I don't want to hijack the thread but they won't necessarily need to make that choice.

The Yankees have ~$40-50M coming off the books after this year. Even in a down year they made about $80M more than the next highest team (LAD). If they have a good year with Soto, attendance will be a little higher and that extra $ + what's coming off the books would cover Soto's next contract. The question though is whether or not they'll be willing to give it to him. That we'll have to wait and see.

Of course, YY and a Soto extension would be the last big money moves they'd make for a couple of years so would have to rely on the farm/player development to fill holes and to make trades to acquire cost-controlled talent.



i get the revenue argument, but i think the scale of the revenue doesn't equal the scale of how much more tax the yankees would be committing to in the 4 years before the end of the stanton contract.

judge (40m)
+ cole (36m)
+ rodon (27m)
+ stanton (22m)
+ let's say $75m per year for yama/soto (which may be light)

= 200m for 6 players for at minimum 4 years (this is assuming both soto extension next year and yankees giving cole his extra year).

the CBT peaks at $244m in 2026 so with benefits and even only minimum salaries other than those 6 there would be literally no way to get under it over those 4 years, so it is 4 years of 3 year repeater tax level.

now add for the next 2 years, almost $30m per year more is on lemahieu and retained money from hicks/donaldson. and another 17m on rizzo this year.

then next year torres needs an extension, cortes in 2 years, so when that bad money comes off there is new money coming right behind it.

add all that up and id be pretty confident guessing that signing yamamoto and soto locks in a $300m+ payroll for at least the 4 years with stanton, which means 60m+ luxury tax bills each of those years, not just this year. and it may even be beyond those 4 years because Stanton at 22m in CBT isn't even that significant.

maybe the plan is to go all in for those 4 years that judge is still judge and cole is still cole, but that is going to be an insanely expensive all in because id imagine they still need to spend on more in other places and even a $5m contract turns into $10m out the door.

and the cherry on top is that the last big piece to extend (soto) will be the hardest with boras squeezing every ounce to set a new record.

it's possible cashman sees this group as his last stand and figures go big or go home. if he gets it accomplished he will have sold Hal on a several hundred million dollar all in. not impossible but i think it's much more likely to end up 1 of soto/yamamoto not both.


if you think the nyy wouldn't have changed their final number and up'ed their bid for yamamoto if they hadn't already gotten soto, let's just say we very much agree to disagree.
RE: RE: and just to save some time if your answer is  
Eric on Li : 12/24/2023 4:46 pm : link
In comment 16333011 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 16333006 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


then why didnt he go back to the mets, who almost certainly would have raised their offer and actually participated in a bidding war, but never got the chance?

you guys are seeing ghosts when the answer is plainly obvious. the yankees had a chance to get a guy they've been scouting, hyping, and holding out a uniform for and in the end they self selected not getting him by refusing to match the highest bid.

you want to think that had nothing to do with money by all means go ahead but that $25m spread over 10 (or more) years is perhaps the only reason they didnt get him.



No- you are the one blinded with Yanks hate and trying to make a case that has no factual basis.

The Yanks made a bid that actually had a higher AAV, had TWO opt outs- which were both a year earlier than the Dodgers and actually was a better deal financially since under the Yanks bid, he would have been a FA at 35, not 37 like the Dodgers deal.

The Mets effectively made the same offer as the Dodgers and never got the chance to up their bid.

All of that tells you that Yamamoto had ZERO interest in signing in NY. Good on the Yanks for recognizing that upping their bid wasn’t going to get it done- they made a better offer and the Mets made the same offer as the Dodgers- and he still choose the Dodgers.

If you STILL cannot see that the NY teams got played, that’s your bias showing.


is bigblueshock "blinded by yankee hate" since he says the yankees had a number they didnt want to exceed??

i can cite reports from martino to heyman that the yankees were give a chance to increase their offer and passed - can you cite a single credible report that yamamoto wouldn't have signed with the yankees if they'd made the best offer?
RE: RE: RE: and just to save some time if your answer is  
rich in DC : 12/24/2023 8:09 pm : link
In comment 16333124 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16333011 rich in DC said:


Quote:


In comment 16333006 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


then why didnt he go back to the mets, who almost certainly would have raised their offer and actually participated in a bidding war, but never got the chance?

you guys are seeing ghosts when the answer is plainly obvious. the yankees had a chance to get a guy they've been scouting, hyping, and holding out a uniform for and in the end they self selected not getting him by refusing to match the highest bid.

you want to think that had nothing to do with money by all means go ahead but that $25m spread over 10 (or more) years is perhaps the only reason they didnt get him.



No- you are the one blinded with Yanks hate and trying to make a case that has no factual basis.

The Yanks made a bid that actually had a higher AAV, had TWO opt outs- which were both a year earlier than the Dodgers and actually was a better deal financially since under the Yanks bid, he would have been a FA at 35, not 37 like the Dodgers deal.

The Mets effectively made the same offer as the Dodgers and never got the chance to up their bid.

All of that tells you that Yamamoto had ZERO interest in signing in NY. Good on the Yanks for recognizing that upping their bid wasn’t going to get it done- they made a better offer and the Mets made the same offer as the Dodgers- and he still choose the Dodgers.

If you STILL cannot see that the NY teams got played, that’s your bias showing.



is bigblueshock "blinded by yankee hate" since he says the yankees had a number they didnt want to exceed??

i can cite reports from martino to heyman that the yankees were give a chance to increase their offer and passed - can you cite a single credible report that yamamoto wouldn't have signed with the yankees if they'd made the best offer?


Again- you are desperately trying to prove something that doesn’t exist. You do not have a single fact to support your belief. Just because you desperately WANT to believe something does not make it true.

Same here- the Yanks had the best financial offer and were effectively asked to bid against themselves with NO guarantee that upping their bid would win. Ask yourself this- if you were bidding on a house against another buyer- and the owner comes back and asks you to raise your bid- which also happens to be the high bid, will you do so?

If you answered yes, you probably shouldn’t be making those level of decisions- because where is the guarantee? No guarantee means you are just throwing money away- and the owner is more likely to shop it to the other buyers unless you get that guarantee.

While no one will likely say- the Yanks almost certainly asked if there was a guarantee that’s Yamamoto would accept if they raised their bid and the agent responded “no.” Thus the Yanks likely realized that they weren’t going to win and we just being used to raise the Dodgers bid. The fact that the Mets were not allowed to raise their bid demonstrates that Yamamoto and his agent were not really dealing in good faith with either NY team.

ok ill admit i hate nyy so much i believe $325m is higher than $300m  
Eric on Li : 12/25/2023 10:59 am : link
you can keep calling the nyy offer higher bc the aav was higher but that is only 1 component and may not even be reflective of how much actual cash he was receiving through the potential opt outs. both he and his former team were guaranteed more money on the $325m offers and it hasnt been reported anywhere ive seen whether or not either ny team was offering the $50m signing bonus (which front loads the cash he gets over the life of the deal). the aav over the full life of the deal is not nearly as important as whatever the real cash received in his bank account was at the time of opt outs. and if he doesnt opt out to get an entirely new contract with even more money its because he's underperformed or got hurt, in which case the total guarantee and actual cash received is more important than whatever the cosmetic AAV is.

here's my last question for u to consider then ill bow out - if the offer he accepted was a truly lesser offer, why wouldnt the yankees have been happy to match a lesser offer? what harm is there in instigating a bidding war by agreeing to a lesser offer?

in all sincerity merry xmas rich we arent going to agree and if you think it's just bias against the nyy maybe find your way back to a nyy thread bc im sure everyone else is over this.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/25/2023 2:33 pm : link

Francys Romero
Paid

@francysromeroFR
Dodgers are among the teams still monitoring OF Teoscar Hernández market, per sources.

They are not favorites to sign Hernandez but they can surprise.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/26/2023 12:15 pm : link
Deadline for remaining 2 "big name" IFA's to sign Woo Suk Go 1/3, Imanaga 1/11
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/26/2023 1:01 pm : link
Kiermaier back to Toronto. DiComo insinuated he was still on the Mets radar as recently as 4 days ago
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/26/2023 1:04 pm : link
Toronto is also one of the teams showing interest in Justin Turner per
@bnicholsonsmith
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/26/2023 1:13 pm : link
Yankees got a pretty decent return for Florial considering he is out of options. Morris has big-league stuff.
Alvarez  
DanMetroMan : 12/26/2023 1:23 pm : link
has def lost weight, looks like a good 10-15 pounds
RE: Alvarez  
Shecky : 12/26/2023 6:10 pm : link
In comment 16335912 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
has def lost weight, looks like a good 10-15 pounds


Blows my mind how under the radar he is.

Mets have a young MEGA star, and no one other than Mets fans talk about him.
I like it that way Shecky it's why I have  
pjcas18 : 12/26/2023 7:01 pm : link
Alvarez as a 20-something round keeper in my fantasy baseball league.

In other news so much for the small crowd of people who felt like just wait for the legal issues to resolve themselves, it's probably a cultural thing. I'm pretty sure this guy never plays MLB again if these allegations are true.

Quote:
ALERTAS MUNDIAL 🗺️
@AlertasMundial
🇩🇴 | #BREAKING • Properties in Bani are raided in search of baseball player Wander Franco.

The Santo Domingo Prosecutor's Office for Children and Adolescents carried out two raids this Tuesday in Bani, Peravia province, in search of baseball player Wander Franco.

According to information, the authorities are looking for the athlete for alleged sexual abuse of a minor in Puerto Plata.

Around 3:00 in the afternoon, police vehicles and the Santo Domingo Children's Attorney's Office were observed arriving at Franco's maternal home in the community of Palo Blanco, in Baní.

Later they went to the house where the player resides without finding evidence.

Franco, 22, did not finish the last Major League season due to the aforementioned case, in which the Major Leagues decided to initiate their own investigation and placed Franco on the restricted list.
RE: RE: Alvarez  
JayBinQueens : 12/26/2023 7:05 pm : link
In comment 16336174 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 16335912 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


has def lost weight, looks like a good 10-15 pounds



Blows my mind how under the radar he is.

Mets have a young MEGA star, and no one other than Mets fans talk about him.


Did people think he was a little overweight? I feel like catchers need a couple of extra lbs to help endure the pounding they take (gigity)

He's a big reason why I think this lineup could be at least 'good' without a big bat brought in this offseason
Now Hector Gomez on the story  
pjcas18 : 12/26/2023 7:56 pm : link


Héctor Gómez
@hgomez27
SOURCE: New evidence has been found in the case of Wander Franco that further implicates him in the accusations that have been made against him of alleged relationships with minors.
Reports  
GF1080 : 12/27/2023 7:41 am : link
Saying Mets have strong interest in Giolito.
Puma  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 9:20 am : link
Mentions Giolito, Clevinger, Ryu, Manaea as potential Mets targets and "likely" won't be pursuing Snell/Montgomery (which we have heard for a while now).
The Franco story is so horrible  
Shecky : 12/27/2023 9:42 am : link
on so many levels. May him and Bauer rot together.

And for all the franchises for this to happen to, sucks it's the Rays.
..  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 9:57 am : link

metZZ 1986🛜
@bkfan09
With the 2024 IFA Class starting on January 15, 2024 all or most players signing on that day. I figured I’d give some names for the 2025 Mets

Elian Peña (SS)
Yeison Acosta(OF)
Steuri Amancio(OF)
Cleiner Ramirez (IF)


(they will be signing all 3 "Ramirez brothers"
Imanaga  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 9:59 am : link
to visit teams after the new year, no indication if the Mets are/are not one of them.
RE: The Franco story is so horrible  
pjcas18 : 12/27/2023 10:09 am : link
In comment 16336479 Shecky said:
Quote:
on so many levels. May him and Bauer rot together.

And for all the franchises for this to happen to, sucks it's the Rays.


I like to let the legal system play out, and i know sometimes the long arm of the law can only reach so far, but from a lot of what I read Bauer may not be what you think or what has been written. Sure like, at least in one case, he was set up.

but whatever, I'm not his PR guy. I expect MLB will or has investigated and we know the law has, so if the Mets are interested in signing him good enough for me.

Bauer, from what I had read, had never been accused of anything remotely close to Franco.

and for me, facts matter. but I also defer to the legal system the league and the team to decide who to sign or not, I don't have a fake moral compass like some fans or one written in pencil or chalk so it can be adjusted when convenient.
the alvarez discussion triggered this thought  
Eric on Li : 12/27/2023 10:18 am : link
the 2023 mets zips vs 2024 not nearly as far apart as i would have guessed, rough count is about 10 wins lighter but half of those wins are from same players same positions (nimmo, alonso, lindor, mcneil).

cancel those 4 out and mets are +1 wins at C thanks to alvarez and down -2.5 wins in OF with canha gone/marte lowered (plus obviously down 1x 4+fwar SP and some RP).





last year's team obviously fell on it's face, but here's the 2022 team where the math is similar:



it seems like stearns is taking a value-focused approach to handing out new contracts while mostly putting the pressure on the core 4 to show whether or not they are a winning core (and i suppose how many young guys other than Alvarez are ready to join the core). clearly fair questions to ask while keeping open the possibility of reseting luxury tax next year, but i wouldn't do it at the expense of letting a pitcher they like get by them this offseason. obviously it appears yamamoto was the only pitcher who fit that definition enough to be worth a bidding war. for the rest it appears it will come down to matching the $ fit.

by the end of the offseason id imagine all 3 of these projections end up pretty close to each other. 1 year they overachieved, 1 year they underachieved, next year will be tie breaker.
Giolito  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 10:34 am : link
reportedly the most "popular" available SPer left. If he wants a very high AAV deal with a 2nd year player option the Mets should be in solid shape. If he wants a multi-year deal, it appears they won't go that route (I would, within reason). Guess we shall see.
.  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 10:47 am : link
Post
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Conversation
Ryan Thibodaux
Verified

@NotMrTibbs
With 49 ballots revealed/~12.8% known:

Beltré - 98.0%
Helton - 85.7%
Mauer - 79.6%
---
Sheffield - 73.5%
Wagner - 71.4%
Jones - 65.3%
Beltrán - 63.3%
Utley - 51.0%
Ramírez - 46.9%
A-Rod - 44.9%
Abreu - 18.4%
Rollins - 16.3%
K-Rod - 14.3%
Pettitte - 12.2%
Vizquel - 12.2%
Buehrle - 8.2%
Wright - 8.2%
Hunter - 4.1%
Colón - 2.0%
IKF  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 11:30 am : link
to Toronto 2 years 15
Add  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 11:39 am : link
the Reds and Red Sox connected to Yariel Rodriguez.
PJ re bauer  
Shecky : 12/27/2023 12:29 pm : link
I've heard very real stories for years. He's a POS.
I agree you let the legal system decide if it is criminal/civil. But there is way more smoke AND fire than anyone has a clue about...
Cotillo  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 12:55 pm : link
Sources: Red Sox remain among the most aggressive on Teoscar Hernandez, who has a handful of interested teams. Angels heavily involved too. Could get a 4-year deal if bidding gets there.


(Hard to believe the Mets give Hernandez that kind of deal)
RE: Cotillo  
Eric on Li : 12/27/2023 2:38 pm : link
In comment 16336707 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Sources: Red Sox remain among the most aggressive on Teoscar Hernandez, who has a handful of interested teams. Angels heavily involved too. Could get a 4-year deal if bidding gets there.


(Hard to believe the Mets give Hernandez that kind of deal)


i expect they will add another OF but it seems like they are generally value hunting. pham wouldnt be the worst reunion idea.
Yamamoto  
DanMetroMan : 12/27/2023 6:44 pm : link
admits his preference was always LAD, even before the off-season began.
RE: Yamamoto  
Eric on Li : 12/27/2023 7:11 pm : link
In comment 16337069 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
admits his preference was always LAD, even before the off-season began.


the only "what if" is how far the LAD go if ohtani didnt defer a present day $440m.

on a straight normal deal that's $44m they had to spend this year and every year for the next 9 that they dont have to. the $100m+ they are paying between signing bonus, salary, posting fee this year is a lot easier having saved a big chunk with ohtani. they could have afforded yamamoto but everyone has a budget so they probably wouldnt have been able to do whatever else they still do (like hader).

morosi making a run for the new nightengale.
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