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Allbright says League is much Higher on McCarthy (top10)

BleedBlue46 : 2/10/2024 10:15 pm
I'm not sure how connected this guy is, but this fits what I'm seeing in my own research:

"League is definitely higher on McCarthy (top 10) and lower on Nix/Penix (day2/3) than media/fans according to the people I talk to."

The more I research the more I believe we will get Daniels, Maye or McCarthy in rd1 without and trade down. Get ready for BBI mock draft worshippers to throw remotes because it's most likely McCarthy at 6 imo.

Mccarthy at 6 then OL and WR in rd2 would make me happy. Troy Franklin or Xavier Leggette at 39 and then an OL like Graham Barton out of Duke at 45 would be great.
McCarthy top 10, Nix and Pennix to day 2 or later - ( New Window )
...  
battttles : 2/10/2024 10:27 pm : link
Quote:
Dane Brugler
@dpbrugler
·
2h
I expect JJ McCarthy to be drafted somewhere in the top-12 picks.

Too early to rule anything out.
I'm not surprised...  
bw in dc : 2/10/2024 10:37 pm : link
Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.

RE: I'm not surprised...  
BleedBlue46 : 2/10/2024 10:45 pm : link
In comment 16394947 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.


He's tough to evaluate due to playing in an old school offense predicated on running the rock, controlling the clock and sound defense while minimizing turnovers. It's also tough to analyze him because he had no big time playmakers in the pass game. I thought the same as you when watching him casually and seeing his statlines. After digging deeper on him I see a qb with sky high potential and a high floor. I think he will be much better in the NFL than in college. I'm still a huge Daniels fan like you are, but I believe Dabs n Co could mold McCarthy into a bigger, more athletic version of Russell Wilson (it doesn't hurt that he is 4-5inches taller too).
I’m on the  
crooza172 : 2/10/2024 10:57 pm : link
Anything but Jones train at this point. We know what we have in him. If they like the kid, you don’t mess around. You take him at 6.
Idk what makes a college Qb a great NFL QB  
George from PA : 2/10/2024 11:10 pm : link
But I know this.....rookie QB contracts help fill roster.

40+ million, middle of the road QBs do not win Super Bowls.
RE: I'm not surprised...  
NormanAllen_95 : 2/10/2024 11:32 pm : link
In comment 16394947 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.


What is it that you dont think is "special"? He might have the strongest arm of the top 3, hes in argument for most athletic with Daniels, he has won consistently, he has 67 or better comp %, he has a better than 4:1 TD:INT ratio.

I will agree, he has never stood on his head to win games but I think that was more fue to his offensive pholosophy and its not like Michigan had monsters at WR. They jad a few TEs but not much more than that and the run game.
A friend of mine  
TommyWiseau : 2/11/2024 4:38 am : link
Works for a top NFL agency and has said the same in regards to the intel his agency is getting. They think he will go top 15 and Nix/Penix will be late 1st early 2nd. He did say this is all subject to change after Combine and workouts/interviews etc
Not surprised...  
Matt G : 2/11/2024 5:44 am : link
McCarthy won't slip past #13
Also, don't be surprised if a team prefers Rattler's upside...  
Matt G : 2/11/2024 5:49 am : link
to Nix or Penix
It is the time for smoke.  
Giant John : 2/11/2024 5:52 am : link
Lots of it.
Also hearing  
TommyWiseau : 2/11/2024 6:10 am : link
The Pats are doing a lot of homework on McCarthy.
..  
Sean : 2/11/2024 6:23 am : link
Quote:
Benjamin Allbright
@AllbrightNFL
If i had to guess today...

1. Bears - QB Williams
2. Commanders - QB Maye
3. Patriots - trade down (Odunze?)
4. Cardinals - WR Harrison
5. Chargers - (trade back OT Mims?)

Next one after the Combine.,
RE: RE: I'm not surprised...  
Mike in NY : 2/11/2024 6:40 am : link
In comment 16394958 NormanAllen_95 said:
Quote:
In comment 16394947 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.




What is it that you dont think is "special"? He might have the strongest arm of the top 3, hes in argument for most athletic with Daniels, he has won consistently, he has 67 or better comp %, he has a better than 4:1 TD:INT ratio.

I will agree, he has never stood on his head to win games but I think that was more fue to his offensive pholosophy and its not like Michigan had monsters at WR. They jad a few TEs but not much more than that and the run game.


The biggest negative I would say is that there were more than a few times where McCarthy looked like Daniel Jones and got skittish about throwing into a window that was there because he did not trust that it was big enough to make a completion. If a QB is waiting for the window it is too late. The top QB’s are able to anticipate where the windows will be and throw the receiver even more open. That is not something that is always teachable as the windows in the NFL are even smaller than college. To a lesser extent I am not sure that Roman Wilson’s play at the Senior Bowl helped in the eyes of those who are not as high on McCarthy. He definitely looked more explosive than he did at Michigan so is it the offense or is it that McCarthy just does not throw a ball that allows his receivers to make plays after the catch.
I feel like the same thing was said about Nix a month ago  
ZogZerg : 2/11/2024 6:59 am : link
It will be interesting.
RE: RE: RE: I'm not surprised...  
bluewave : 2/11/2024 7:01 am : link
In comment 16394983 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16394958 NormanAllen_95 said:


Quote:


In comment 16394947 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.




What is it that you dont think is "special"? He might have the strongest arm of the top 3, hes in argument for most athletic with Daniels, he has won consistently, he has 67 or better comp %, he has a better than 4:1 TD:INT ratio.

I will agree, he has never stood on his head to win games but I think that was more fue to his offensive pholosophy and its not like Michigan had monsters at WR. They jad a few TEs but not much more than that and the run game.



The biggest negative I would say is that there were more than a few times where McCarthy looked like Daniel Jones and got skittish about throwing into a window that was there because he did not trust that it was big enough to make a completion. If a QB is waiting for the window it is too late. The top QB’s are able to anticipate where the windows will be and throw the receiver even more open. That is not something that is always teachable as the windows in the NFL are even smaller than college. To a lesser extent I am not sure that Roman Wilson’s play at the Senior Bowl helped in the eyes of those who are not as high on McCarthy. He definitely looked more explosive than he did at Michigan so is it the offense or is it that McCarthy just does not throw a ball that allows his receivers to make plays after the catch.


To be honest, you can say that about any of the top 3 QBs, especially Caleb Williams since this year he didn't play as well this year due to a weaker team.
RE: A friend of mine  
ajr2456 : 2/11/2024 7:29 am : link
In comment 16394973 TommyWiseau said:
Quote:
Works for a top NFL agency and has said the same in regards to the intel his agency is getting. They think he will go top 15 and Nix/Penix will be late 1st early 2nd. He did say this is all subject to change after Combine and workouts/interviews etc


Can concur this.
I thought McCarthy  
Lines of Scrimmage : 2/11/2024 8:26 am : link
would go pretty high for some time as will Nix. Penix has the injuries and then he was exposed on the big stage imv so he may fall quite a bit. I am not as high on Daniels as some.

It just takes one team though to like someone so you never know for sure how things play out imv.

All these QB's have shown some a lot. They are not Willis like QB candidates with that foolish top 10 talk from some.

I have my doubts about the premise of the OP  
Manhattan : 2/11/2024 8:28 am : link
but we will soon find out. I don't think there is nearly enough good video on McCarthy to project him as a top-10 pick. He's certainly not threatening the top 3 QBs at this juncture.
I absolutely don’t see anything special about McCarthy  
Mike from Ohio : 2/11/2024 8:51 am : link
But if the Giants take him at the top of the draft I am completely open to the idea that he has what it takes and will hope they are right. I don’t fool myself into thinking I can scout QBs at the same level of the pros.

This is just some PTSD for me since I felt the exact same way about Daniel Jones coming out and it turns out the “pros” I was deferring to were some of the worst talent evaluators the NFL has seen in the last couple of decades.

I just don’t want to see this team spend another 5 years twisting in the wind while we try to build an All-Pro roster to prop up a mediocre QB.
RE: Idk what makes a college Qb a great NFL QB  
Spider56 : 2/11/2024 9:52 am : link
In comment 16394956 George from PA said:
Quote:
But I know this.....rookie QB contracts help fill roster.

40+ million, middle of the road QBs do not win Super Bowls.


+1. There are so many variables that go into the equation… coaches and systems at both levels, the speed and mental processing part of the game. To add to your point, teams have 3-4 years to figure out if a young QB has it; before giving him the money in the 2nd contract. This is where the Giants failed. The McAdoo, Shurmur, Judge mistakes derailed an objective view of tge $40M man.
RE: RE: RE: I'm not surprised...  
RCPhoenix : 2/11/2024 10:05 am : link
In comment 16394983 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16394958 NormanAllen_95 said:


Quote:


In comment 16394947 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.




What is it that you dont think is "special"? He might have the strongest arm of the top 3, hes in argument for most athletic with Daniels, he has won consistently, he has 67 or better comp %, he has a better than 4:1 TD:INT ratio.

I will agree, he has never stood on his head to win games but I think that was more fue to his offensive pholosophy and its not like Michigan had monsters at WR. They jad a few TEs but not much more than that and the run game.



The biggest negative I would say is that there were more than a few times where McCarthy looked like Daniel Jones and got skittish about throwing into a window that was there because he did not trust that it was big enough to make a completion. If a QB is waiting for the window it is too late. The top QB’s are able to anticipate where the windows will be and throw the receiver even more open. That is not something that is always teachable as the windows in the NFL are even smaller than college. To a lesser extent I am not sure that Roman Wilson’s play at the Senior Bowl helped in the eyes of those who are not as high on McCarthy. He definitely looked more explosive than he did at Michigan so is it the offense or is it that McCarthy just does not throw a ball that allows his receivers to make plays after the catch.


McCarthy is nothing like Jones. For one thing, he keeps his eyes downfield when he scrambles.

As for Wilson, he had 12 TDs last year (MH Jr had 14). It’s not as if he wasn’t productive.
I found this interesting  
jvm52106 : 2/11/2024 10:20 am : link
for those that like to play revisionist history or who claim they had this person or that person ranked high and the Giants made a mistake etc..

This is an ESPN ranking of draft prospects just prior to the 2017 NFL draft. It was by a Senior ESPN write on April 22nd, 2017.

Patrick Mahomes was the 52/53rd rated prospect. Deshaun Watson was in the late 20's.. While we know Mahomes went in Rd 1 (QB's get drafted higher) there was no guarantee that he was the IT prospect that people claim now..

With that in mind, those who claim Daniels, Maye, Williams and Penix are just better than McCarthy have ZERO and I mean ZERO information or proof as that being the case. In fact we have ZERO proof that any of the QB's will be great or reverse, that all of them WILL NOT be great..

I trust evaluators (that do this as a job) but in reality it comes down to what the player themselves can do or can't do. Tom Brady wasn't even seen by his college team as a sure fire thing and look where that went..

We just all agree that a QB is needed for this team going forward.
April 2017 - ( New Window )
The only thing not to like about McCarthy  
Dave on the UWS : 2/11/2024 10:34 am : link
is his long windup. Daboll would be able to shorten it and as was seen with Allen , better mechanics improved accuracy.
After the combine I’m betting 4 QBs will be mocked in the top 10.
along with the 3 stud WR . Sitting at 6 is a good spot.
One thing I do like  
TommyWiseau : 2/11/2024 10:35 am : link
About JJ is his pocket presence. Something our current QB lacks
RE: RE: RE: RE: I'm not surprised...  
Mike in NY : 2/11/2024 10:57 am : link
In comment 16395096 RCPhoenix said:
Quote:
In comment 16394983 Mike in NY said:


Quote:


In comment 16394958 NormanAllen_95 said:


Quote:


In comment 16394947 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.




What is it that you dont think is "special"? He might have the strongest arm of the top 3, hes in argument for most athletic with Daniels, he has won consistently, he has 67 or better comp %, he has a better than 4:1 TD:INT ratio.

I will agree, he has never stood on his head to win games but I think that was more fue to his offensive pholosophy and its not like Michigan had monsters at WR. They jad a few TEs but not much more than that and the run game.



The biggest negative I would say is that there were more than a few times where McCarthy looked like Daniel Jones and got skittish about throwing into a window that was there because he did not trust that it was big enough to make a completion. If a QB is waiting for the window it is too late. The top QB’s are able to anticipate where the windows will be and throw the receiver even more open. That is not something that is always teachable as the windows in the NFL are even smaller than college. To a lesser extent I am not sure that Roman Wilson’s play at the Senior Bowl helped in the eyes of those who are not as high on McCarthy. He definitely looked more explosive than he did at Michigan so is it the offense or is it that McCarthy just does not throw a ball that allows his receivers to make plays after the catch.



McCarthy is nothing like Jones. For one thing, he keeps his eyes downfield when he scrambles.

As for Wilson, he had 12 TDs last year (MH Jr had 14). It’s not as if he wasn’t productive.


48 for 789 is not good for 14 games. Only twice did he get more than 4 catches (Week 1 vs. ECU and later vs. Purdue). Purdue was also the only game he went above 90 yards. His longest reception all year was only 47 yards.
RE: I found this interesting  
56goat : 2/11/2024 11:09 am : link
In comment 16395102 jvm52106 said:
Quote:
for those that like to play revisionist history or who claim they had this person or that person ranked high and the Giants made a mistake etc..

This is an ESPN ranking of draft prospects just prior to the 2017 NFL draft. It was by a Senior ESPN write on April 22nd, 2017.

Patrick Mahomes was the 52/53rd rated prospect. Deshaun Watson was in the late 20's.. While we know Mahomes went in Rd 1 (QB's get drafted higher) there was no guarantee that he was the IT prospect that people claim now..

With that in mind, those who claim Daniels, Maye, Williams and Penix are just better than McCarthy have ZERO and I mean ZERO information or proof as that being the case. In fact we have ZERO proof that any of the QB's will be great or reverse, that all of them WILL NOT be great..

I trust evaluators (that do this as a job) but in reality it comes down to what the player themselves can do or can't do. Tom Brady wasn't even seen by his college team as a sure fire thing and look where that went..

We just all agree that a QB is needed for this team going forward. April 2017 - ( New Window )


+1

You know the old sayings about opinions... I fully admit I don't know enough to rate any football players, let alone QBs. Just hope the Giants people doing this for a living get it right.
RE: RE: RE: I'm not surprised...  
bigblue5611 : 2/11/2024 11:13 am : link
In comment 16394983 Mike in NY said:
Quote:

The biggest negative I would say is that there were more than a few times where McCarthy looked like Daniel Jones and got skittish about throwing into a window that was there because he did not trust that it was big enough to make a completion. If a QB is waiting for the window it is too late. The top QB’s are able to anticipate where the windows will be and throw the receiver even more open. That is not something that is always teachable as the windows in the NFL are even smaller than college. To a lesser extent I am not sure that Roman Wilson’s play at the Senior Bowl helped in the eyes of those who are not as high on McCarthy. He definitely looked more explosive than he did at Michigan so is it the offense or is it that McCarthy just does not throw a ball that allows his receivers to make plays after the catch.


I’m going to have to disagree with this, I didn’t watch too much of JJ previously but have been trying to watch more of his tape and read up lately. Made sure to watch the game against Bama and National Championship as well. Granted these are highlights and most everyone looks good on highlights, but I saw plenty of tight window throws, including 1:00, 1:47 (probably the best one against OSU) and 2:01 of the attached (I didn’t include every one, just a few). I was a proponent of Jones after his rookie year and 2022 but am on board with moving on at this point, I don’t think I can recall seeing Jones make the types of throws McCarthy has made.
Link - ( New Window )
Wilson’s reception stats  
RCPhoenix : 2/11/2024 11:14 am : link
Are heavily influenced by the type of offense they ran. Having 12 TDs in a run heavy offense is no small feat.
I think there is a top 4 at qb this year,  
BleedBlue46 : 2/11/2024 12:05 pm : link
Then the rest of the bunch after. No more talking about the top 3 then the second tier. After the combine this will be cemented as a fact imo.
RE: I found this interesting  
Mike from Ohio : 2/11/2024 12:21 pm : link
In comment 16395102 jvm52106 said:
Quote:
for those that like to play revisionist history or who claim they had this person or that person ranked high and the Giants made a mistake etc..

This is an ESPN ranking of draft prospects just prior to the 2017 NFL draft. It was by a Senior ESPN write on April 22nd, 2017.

Patrick Mahomes was the 52/53rd rated prospect. Deshaun Watson was in the late 20's.. While we know Mahomes went in Rd 1 (QB's get drafted higher) there was no guarantee that he was the IT prospect that people claim now..

With that in mind, those who claim Daniels, Maye, Williams and Penix are just better than McCarthy have ZERO and I mean ZERO information or proof as that being the case. In fact we have ZERO proof that any of the QB's will be great or reverse, that all of them WILL NOT be great..

I trust evaluators (that do this as a job) but in reality it comes down to what the player themselves can do or can't do. Tom Brady wasn't even seen by his college team as a sure fire thing and look where that went..

We just all agree that a QB is needed for this team going forward. April 2017 - ( New Window )


This post is all over the place. There is no such thing as “proof” of future performance and not a single person has ever suggested there is. You are arguing with an idea you just made up.

Nobody said Mahomes was a sure fire prospect. He was drafted 10th for a reason. Kansas City did a great job teaching him and putting him in a position to win, and he did a great job of honing his game and becoming the player he is.

The biggest knock on him was he came from a program where QBs put up video game numbers and then did not replicate that in the NFL. That just demonstrates the absurd fallacy of people who post things like “I wouldn’t touch Caleb Williams because USC QBs aren’t good in the NFL.”
RE: I think there is a top 4 at qb this year,  
UberAlias : 2/11/2024 12:40 pm : link
In comment 16395181 BleedBlue46 said:
Quote:
Then the rest of the bunch after. No more talking about the top 3 than the second tier. After the combine this will be cemented as a fact imo.
That would be incredibly fortunate for us if true.
RE: RE: I'm not surprised...  
bw in dc : 2/11/2024 12:57 pm : link
In comment 16394958 NormanAllen_95 said:
Quote:
In comment 16394947 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.




What is it that you dont think is "special"? He might have the strongest arm of the top 3, hes in argument for most athletic with Daniels, he has won consistently, he has 67 or better comp %, he has a better than 4:1 TD:INT ratio.

I will agree, he has never stood on his head to win games but I think that was more fue to his offensive pholosophy and its not like Michigan had monsters at WR. They jad a few TEs but not much more than that and the run game.


Strong arm and arm talent, to me, are different talents.

Sure, McCarthy can throw the ball far. But I prefer to see attributes like a quick release, changing ball speed and trajectories well, change arm angles with effectiveness, etc. I don't see those elements with McCarthy. I see a prospect with a very long throwing motion who looks too robotic for my tastes right now.

I don't put a lot of weight on winning, completion %, ratios, etc. Obviously, you don't ignore those pieces, but they should be much further down the list - IMV.

Here is what I see with McCarthy. A good athlete with a good initial burst when running. And he played within a system designed to dominate with the run game.
RE: RE: RE: I'm not surprised...  
BleedBlue46 : 2/11/2024 1:30 pm : link
In comment 16395223 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16394958 NormanAllen_95 said:


Quote:


In comment 16394947 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Penix and Nix are likely viewed as day two or later picks.

Team McCarthy, on the other hand, must have had compelling draft intel to leave Michigan with the Big Three available.

I don't see anything special about the kid and wouldn't touch him with the 6th pick, but he clearly seems to be the momentum prospect right now.




What is it that you dont think is "special"? He might have the strongest arm of the top 3, hes in argument for most athletic with Daniels, he has won consistently, he has 67 or better comp %, he has a better than 4:1 TD:INT ratio.

I will agree, he has never stood on his head to win games but I think that was more fue to his offensive pholosophy and its not like Michigan had monsters at WR. They jad a few TEs but not much more than that and the run game.



Strong arm and arm talent, to me, are different talents.

Sure, McCarthy can throw the ball far. But I prefer to see attributes like a quick release, changing ball speed and trajectories well, change arm angles with effectiveness, etc. I don't see those elements with McCarthy. I see a prospect with a very long throwing motion who looks too robotic for my tastes right now.

I don't put a lot of weight on winning, completion %, ratios, etc. Obviously, you don't ignore those pieces, but they should be much further down the list - IMV.

Here is what I see with McCarthy. A good athlete with a good initial burst when running. And he played within a system designed to dominate with the run game.


I agree he has some mechanical stuff that could be shared up, I don't think he had the playmakers to show off all of his throws thus seeing mostly throws on a rope into tight windows. His receivers rarely got much of any separation. He played his best against good defenses in big games. His average yards per attempt is up there with the best of prospects. He throws incredibly well when on the run, up there with CW in this regard imo. He has a good sense for pressure in the pocket and navigated pressure well. He is smart and is able to read defenses and blitzes. His stats when under pressure are top of the class. He is very good in play action and rpo, his slight of hand on PA is best in the class imo which is an underrated ability (Brady was a master at that). He just turned 21 and is a full 14 months younger than Caleb Williams. He will put on 20lbs or more of muscle in his rookie contract. He is unphased when things don't go his way; he has an ideal demeanor and mentality for the position. His arm strength is up there with the best of them. He also played injured with a labrum injury last year that hindered him throughout the season and this year with an ankle injury sustained in the Penn st game that inhibited his ability to drive off his back foot properly. His numbers on 3rd down and ratio of big play throws to turnovers while having a 70+% completion rate is top of the class as well I believe.

I'm sure I missed some positives, but I think you're underrating him. And like I've told you before, I was right there with you not seeing it with McCarthy while casually watching a few of his games and tracking his stats. I was mostly focused on Jayden Daniels and other prospects so I didn't watch a lot of full Michigan st games until later in the year. I've now been doing a deep dive on him researching him, watching all 22s and full games. I have a completely different impression of him now. I think he will be a better pro than college player with proper coaching and a system designed around his talents in a league revolving around scoring in the pass game. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up as the most successful QB from this year's draft. I think Daniels and CW are 1a and 1b while Maye and JJ are 2a and 2b. Then there are the other QBs in a completely different category and class.

McCarthy  
AcidTest : 2/11/2024 2:26 pm : link
is much better prospect than Jones was coming out of college, if only because he processes more quickly. But he is still a projection for me because he comes from a run heavy offense. His throwing motion also looks like he's a baseball player throwing a football. I wouldn't take him at #6, but I agree that if the Giants like him they will have to do so because someone will definitely take him in the first round, probably in the top 15.

McCarthy looks like a "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Nix, Penix, Pratt, and Rattler look like "high floor," "low ceiling" players. To win a SB you typically need the former, not the latter, which is why McCarthy will likely be drafted very early.
RE: McCarthy  
BleedBlue46 : 2/11/2024 2:52 pm : link
In comment 16395272 AcidTest said:
Quote:
is much better prospect than Jones was coming out of college, if only because he processes more quickly. But he is still a projection for me because he comes from a run heavy offense. His throwing motion also looks like he's a baseball player throwing a football. I wouldn't take him at #6, but I agree that if the Giants like him they will have to do so because someone will definitely take him in the first round, probably in the top 15.

McCarthy looks like a "high ceiling," "low floor" player. Nix, Penix, Pratt, and Rattler look like "high floor," "low ceiling" players. To win a SB you typically need the former, not the latter, which is why McCarthy will likely be drafted very early.
wasn't?

I think JJ's floor is pretty high actually, I don't see him busting at all floor is middle to lower tier starter imo, no worse than daniel jones for the floor lol
It's funny every year, there seems to be a fair amount of QB's  
barens : 2/11/2024 2:56 pm : link
in the draft, and plenty of teams that need them.

This year, it seems like there are a bunch of teams that can go QB in round 1, and I would not be surprised if McCarthy, Nix and Penix all go round 1.

I told you all McCarthy would go very high  
ElitoCanton : 2/11/2024 3:02 pm : link
he has elite traits. NFL scouts won't hold the Michigan conservative offense against him. I'd be thrilled if the Giants grab him.
The Jones comparisons to Jones are a little lazy IMO.  
NormanAllen_95 : 2/11/2024 3:08 pm : link
As was mentioned, McCarthy is constantly looking downfield when he has to get out of the pocket. Jones, when he busts the pocket, is almost guaranteed to pick a lane to run.

Also, ehile I think Jones' arm strength has always been underrated, JJ throws are 8ncredibly zippy. I still am a little hesitant to select him at 6, but if he blows up the combine/pro day, I could see us grabbing him and giving Danoll a chance with HIS qb
McCarthy’s release isn’t super fast but is  
cosmicj : 2/11/2024 4:04 pm : link
It slow? It looks medium speed to me.

Have you guys run into any attempts at quantifying release speed? Would seem difficult but worthwhile.

Also, in the highlight video bigblu5611 posted, make sure to watch the throw McCarthy makes v OSU at around 7::10. Brilliant. He’s going in the top 10.

Very difficult player to evaluate.
RE: The Jones comparisons to Jones are a little lazy IMO.  
BleedBlue46 : 2/11/2024 4:09 pm : link
In comment 16395304 NormanAllen_95 said:
Quote:
As was mentioned, McCarthy is constantly looking downfield when he has to get out of the pocket. Jones, when he busts the pocket, is almost guaranteed to pick a lane to run.

Also, ehile I think Jones' arm strength has always been underrated, JJ throws are 8ncredibly zippy. I still am a little hesitant to select him at 6, but if he blows up the combine/pro day, I could see us grabbing him and giving Danoll a chance with HIS qb


I believe a plus version of Jones is his floor and his ceiling is incredibly high like a clutch version of Donovan McNabb or a bigger more athletic Russ
people like to lean on stats or some special skill as a crutch  
Eric on Li : 2/11/2024 4:13 pm : link
mccarthy doesnt check either box so that makes some people uncomfortable. yet time and again QB proves to be a position where toolbox >>> tools.
RE: McCarthy’s release isn’t super fast but is  
bw in dc : 2/11/2024 4:32 pm : link
In comment 16395352 cosmicj said:
Quote:


Also, in the highlight video bigblu5611 posted, make sure to watch the throw McCarthy makes v OSU at around 7::10. Brilliant. He’s going in the top 10.

Very difficult player to evaluate.


I agree with the last point. McCarthy is a difficult evaluation. And I think we can link some of that to your first point. Yes, he made a brilliant throw against OSU (assuming you are correct), but he doesn't have a lot of quantity overall to make you comfortable that he's got the ability to consistently perform at a high level.
RE: RE: McCarthy’s release isn’t super fast but is  
BleedBlue46 : 2/11/2024 4:45 pm : link
In comment 16395387 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16395352 cosmicj said:


Quote:




Also, in the highlight video bigblu5611 posted, make sure to watch the throw McCarthy makes v OSU at around 7::10. Brilliant. He’s going in the top 10.

Very difficult player to evaluate.



I agree with the last point. McCarthy is a difficult evaluation. And I think we can link some of that to your first point. Yes, he made a brilliant throw against OSU (assuming you are correct), but he doesn't have a lot of quantity overall to make you comfortable that he's got the ability to consistently perform at a high level.


I think there is plenty of good tape on him. My biggest question mark is in regards to his touch throws. Did we not see much of that due to the offense he ran or receivers not getting separation or is it a flaw in his game? I'm absolutely astonished by Daniels touch, along with many other facets of his game hence why he is #1 in my book.
RE: RE: RE: McCarthy’s release isn’t super fast but is  
Eric on Li : 2/11/2024 5:05 pm : link
In comment 16395400 BleedBlue46 said:
Quote:
In comment 16395387 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 16395352 cosmicj said:


Quote:




Also, in the highlight video bigblu5611 posted, make sure to watch the throw McCarthy makes v OSU at around 7::10. Brilliant. He’s going in the top 10.

Very difficult player to evaluate.



I agree with the last point. McCarthy is a difficult evaluation. And I think we can link some of that to your first point. Yes, he made a brilliant throw against OSU (assuming you are correct), but he doesn't have a lot of quantity overall to make you comfortable that he's got the ability to consistently perform at a high level.



I think there is plenty of good tape on him. My biggest question mark is in regards to his touch throws. Did we not see much of that due to the offense he ran or receivers not getting separation or is it a flaw in his game? I'm absolutely astonished by Daniels touch, along with many other facets of his game hence why he is #1 in my book.


draft is a projection forward for everyone but not everyone is starting from the same place. daniels age 20 season in 2021 asu went 8-5 and he passed for 10 tds/10 ints and lost bowl game to wisconsin 20-13 while completing 11/21 passes for 150 yards and an INT. at that point he'd attempted more passes at ASU than JJM at UM.

im not knocking daniels, just pointing out that if you gave jjm 2 years and another 700+ throws to nabers + thomas he'd have a much deeper library of astonishing highlights.
RE: RE: RE: McCarthy’s release isn’t super fast but is  
bw in dc : 2/11/2024 5:29 pm : link
In comment 16395400 BleedBlue46 said:
Quote:


I think there is plenty of good tape on him. My biggest question mark is in regards to his touch throws. Did we not see much of that due to the offense he ran or receivers not getting separation or is it a flaw in his game? I'm absolutely astonished by Daniels touch, along with many other facets of his game hence why he is #1 in my book.


I agree there is a lot of good video for McCarthy.

On the other hand, you watch Williams, Daniels, or Maye and see a lot of plays that are great, and even unique.
RE: RE: RE: RE: McCarthy’s release isn’t super fast but is  
BleedBlue46 : 2/11/2024 5:57 pm : link
In comment 16395408 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16395400 BleedBlue46 said:


Quote:


In comment 16395387 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 16395352 cosmicj said:


Quote:




Also, in the highlight video bigblu5611 posted, make sure to watch the throw McCarthy makes v OSU at around 7::10. Brilliant. He’s going in the top 10.

Very difficult player to evaluate.



I agree with the last point. McCarthy is a difficult evaluation. And I think we can link some of that to your first point. Yes, he made a brilliant throw against OSU (assuming you are correct), but he doesn't have a lot of quantity overall to make you comfortable that he's got the ability to consistently perform at a high level.



I think there is plenty of good tape on him. My biggest question mark is in regards to his touch throws. Did we not see much of that due to the offense he ran or receivers not getting separation or is it a flaw in his game? I'm absolutely astonished by Daniels touch, along with many other facets of his game hence why he is #1 in my book.



draft is a projection forward for everyone but not everyone is starting from the same place. daniels age 20 season in 2021 asu went 8-5 and he passed for 10 tds/10 ints and lost bowl game to wisconsin 20-13 while completing 11/21 passes for 150 yards and an INT. at that point he'd attempted more passes at ASU than JJM at UM.

im not knocking daniels, just pointing out that if you gave jjm 2 years and another 700+ throws to nabers + thomas he'd have a much deeper library of astonishing highlights.


Agreed, Maye has that protypical size at 230 6'5 otherwise JJ would be ahead of him in my book instead I have them as 2a and 2b with Daniels as 1a and CW as 1b. McCarthy is 14 months younger than CW, 25 months younger than Daniels and 8 months younger than Maye.
RE: RE: RE: RE: McCarthy’s release isn’t super fast but is  
BleedBlue46 : 2/11/2024 5:59 pm : link
In comment 16395417 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16395400 BleedBlue46 said:


Quote:




I think there is plenty of good tape on him. My biggest question mark is in regards to his touch throws. Did we not see much of that due to the offense he ran or receivers not getting separation or is it a flaw in his game? I'm absolutely astonished by Daniels touch, along with many other facets of his game hence why he is #1 in my book.



I agree there is a lot of good video for McCarthy.

On the other hand, you watch Williams, Daniels, or Maye and see a lot of plays that are great, and even unique.


I would argue that Mccarthy's ability to throw on the run is elite to go along with all the other plus tools he has, but if I had to pick one trait out them all it would have to be his throwing ability on the move. Other than the lack of touch throws on his tape I don't see any glaring weaknesses. You could argue he is the most well rounded of the prospects really. Daniels misses a lot of throws when on the run, it's one of his biggest weaknesses imo but I think it's very coachable.
If you told me  
lax counsel : 2/11/2024 6:09 pm : link
JJ was the best qb from this draft I’d believe it. If you told me he would be the worst id believe it.

I’ve given up trying to judge these guys who have clear first round talent, which I think he does. It’s such a crapshoot with these first round qbs.
mccarthy's athleticism should end up near elite  
Eric on Li : 2/12/2024 9:40 am : link
it wont be 2nd RB like lamar jackson, justin fields, or AR, but it will likely be 95th+ percentile like allen and luck.

and his w/l record and quality of competition faced the last 2 years is pretty close to elite too. he only lost 1 game in the last 2 years (TCU CFP) while beating OSU twice, PSU twice, Bama once, undefeated UW in a year where p12 had a few quality teams, 2x big 10 champ, 1x national champ.

for QB's "winning" can be a carrying tool. deshaun watson had some holes in his game, and certainly in his tools, and before the non-happy ending in cleveland he played well enough that his on-field performance had teams tripping over themselves to give up multiple firsts and a 1/4 $bil for him.
RE: mccarthy's athleticism should end up near elite  
bigblue5611 : 2/12/2024 9:43 am : link
In comment 16396348 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
it wont be 2nd RB like lamar jackson, justin fields, or AR, but it will likely be 95th+ percentile like allen and luck.

and his w/l record and quality of competition faced the last 2 years is pretty close to elite too. he only lost 1 game in the last 2 years (TCU CFP) while beating OSU twice, PSU twice, Bama once, undefeated UW in a year where p12 had a few quality teams, 2x big 10 champ, 1x national champ.

for QB's "winning" can be a carrying tool. deshaun watson had some holes in his game, and certainly in his tools, and before the non-happy ending in cleveland he played well enough that his on-field performance had teams tripping over themselves to give up multiple firsts and a 1/4 $bil for him.


The more I watch of McCarthy, the more I like. I'd have no issues with Giants drafting him at 6.
RE: RE: mccarthy's athleticism should end up near elite  
Eric on Li : 2/12/2024 9:47 am : link
In comment 16396354 bigblue5611 said:
Quote:
In comment 16396348 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


it wont be 2nd RB like lamar jackson, justin fields, or AR, but it will likely be 95th+ percentile like allen and luck.

and his w/l record and quality of competition faced the last 2 years is pretty close to elite too. he only lost 1 game in the last 2 years (TCU CFP) while beating OSU twice, PSU twice, Bama once, undefeated UW in a year where p12 had a few quality teams, 2x big 10 champ, 1x national champ.

for QB's "winning" can be a carrying tool. deshaun watson had some holes in his game, and certainly in his tools, and before the non-happy ending in cleveland he played well enough that his on-field performance had teams tripping over themselves to give up multiple firsts and a 1/4 $bil for him.



The more I watch of McCarthy, the more I like. I'd have no issues with Giants drafting him at 6.


id have no issues with any qb they take.

josh allen had a ton of glaring flaws that continued through his first 2 years as a pro (accuracy being the big one) - so the single biggest asset on dabolls resume was/is the fact that he is 1 of the small handful who got it right in the top 10 (on a trade up no less, over a more consensus rosen too).
No Issue with JJ  
Lambuth_Special : 2/12/2024 9:49 am : link
Endorsed by a big-time coach, won in a big-time program, good arm, great athleticism.

You're having to project a little bit in drafting him, but what I like about him is that it allows the Giants to do their face-saving routine by potentially starting Jones while he gets "ready" (due to his age and lack of tape) but they still have a talented cost-controlled QB on the roster.
RE: RE: RE: mccarthy's athleticism should end up near elite  
bigblue5611 : 2/12/2024 9:58 am : link
In comment 16396361 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
id have no issues with any qb they take.

josh allen had a ton of glaring flaws that continued through his first 2 years as a pro (accuracy being the big one) - so the single biggest asset on dabolls resume was/is the fact that he is 1 of the small handful who got it right in the top 10 (on a trade up no less, over a more consensus rosen too).


Valid point and I'm pretty much in the same boat, though my preference at this point would be Maye/McCarthy. We shall see where things go though...
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