Aside from my “next day” reviews, I very rarely start a thread unless I see a transaction/coaching hire etc… that hasn’t been reported. After watching Mahomes win yet another Super Bowl I went down a thought path that I’m sure many on this board did, which is how long are we going to have to wait until its “our turn” again.
The Giants Roster has holes, a lot of them, but still the biggest and most glaring one is at QB. We were 1-5 with Jones as a starter and 5-6 with the combination of Devito/Taylor. As many holes as we have, I firmly believe if we had the ability to go almost .500 with the Devito/Taylor combo, we’d be a playoff team with an actual franchise QB. The holes would need to be filled to get us to the Super Bowl.
Like everyone on this board, I have no clue what the Giants will do in the draft. There seems to be a collective nervousness surrounding this topic amongst fans of the team and rightfully so. We have a QB that has constant injury issues and has only produced one “successful” season out of six. He’s also coming off a torn ACL. Our QB situation is not good and there is no arguing this.
The good news is that despite things seeming dire, watching Pat Mahomes win the Super Bowl last night can provide us some hope. Why? Because there is a lot that our front office, particularly Mara, can learn from the events that lead to the Chiefs drafting Mahomes.
Let’s start by looking at the 2017 NFL draft. Mahomes wasn’t the first pick, he also didn’t go in the top 5, he was actually the 10th pick and also wasn’t even the first quarterback taken. What great QB went before Mahomes??? Mitch Trubisky…
This means that not only was the NFL’s top QB not the top QB prospect in his draft class, but he was behind a guy that kind of stunk… All these arguments about needing to take a certain player are irrelevant, picking the 1st QB off the board is no guarantee of success.
Let’s also look at the idea of drafting a QB with the first overall pick. Some of you may view things differently, but in my opinion, there is one goal of playing in the NFL and that is winning a Super Bowl. With that measure of success in mind, how many QBs over the last 25 years have been the first overall pick and won a Super Bowl for the team who drafted them? The answer, just 1 and that would be Peyton Manning. Matt Stafford won a Super Bowl but with another team, as did Peyton Manning once with The Broncos and Eli Manning 2x with The Giants (we didn’t draft him…).
So now we’ve established that you do not need to pick #1 to get a Pat Mahomes, nor does picking a QB at #1 increase your odds of drafting a Super Bowl winning QB. We don’t pick first this year, so this gives us some hope.
Move forward to something that our front office, particularly John Mara, really needs to take a look at, this is the circumstances around KC drafting Mahomes. In the 2015 and 2016 seasons, prior to 2017 when Mahomes was drafted, the Chiefs had a starting QB (Alex Smith) that won 22 games, threw for just under 7,000 yards and 35 TDs during that span. They didn’t need a QB…
KC still drafted Mahomes and decided to let him develop for a year while Smith started for them. Smith turned around and had the best season of his career while Mahomes was on the bench posting a 4042yd 26TD and 5INT season.
Where most teams would take this as a sign to stick with Smith, the Chiefs went with their own evaluations and decided that the back up Mahomes was a better player. They traded Smith, started Mahomes the next season and the rest is history.
How does this relate to the Giants???
There seems to be two different streams of thought regarding why we can’t pick a QB. The first being that since we are picking 6th all the good QBs will be gone and the second is that since Jones was given a big contract, we’re stuck with him.
On point one about picking 6th, we need to be a little bit more comfortable with the idea that the draft isn’t guaranteed, and you never know what you’re getting until they play a game for you. Pat Mahomes was drafted after Mitch Trubisky, really think long and hard about how absurd that sounds 7 years later, but it was consensus in 2017 that Mitch was “the guy” and the prize of the draft. Heck, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield were picked before Josh Allen the following year.
Picking 1st or even the 1st QB guarantees you nothing. There is always a gamble to drafting QBs which is why you shouldn’t bat an eye regarding moving on if you’ve picked the wrong one.
Next is the contract and viewing Jones as “stuck” here. While I won’t try and sell anyone on Smith as a high-end franchise QB, he was better than Daniel Jones has been for us. Smith was a legitimate starting QB in the NFL and had value, however, he was not a star nor would I call him a franchise QB. Kansas City recognized that unless you have a top shelf player at QB, winning a Super Bowl is rather difficult. They decided to try and upgrade the position despite having someone in place.
What is the lesson here? Unless you have Pat Mahomes, don’t let having a QB stop you from trying to draft the next Pat Mahomes.
Tying this all up, I still have no clue what the franchise will do in the draft, but I have no issue giving my opinion which is that if they see a guy available at QB they think has franchise potential, they should draft him. There is no reason that the 3rd or 4th QB drafted won’t wind up the best of the group and Jones shouldn’t prohibit you from taking one, just as Smith didn’t deter KC.
The Giants should take a long hard look from KC’s path to landing Mahomes and how it paid off. Staying with Jones and hoping he turns it around isn’t a way to run a franchise. A lot of the best front offices don’t get things right the first time but they’re honest with their evaluations and are willing to admit a mistake then try and fix it. Most importantly, they know the value of a franchise QB and don’t stand pat until they have one.
the last year before reid they went 2-14.
they hadnt won a playoff game in 10 years (since vermeil)
over that decade post-vermeil they'd cycled through 3 head coaches and a few gms.
reid came in, blew out pioli the same day, and they have had winning records ever since. including 5 years (and 2 division titles) before mahomes.
w/ mahomes everything obviously went to another level but their success together like brady/belichek (and walsh/montana) is intertwined.
No, Eli was drafted by San Diego, we then drafted Rivers and swapped the players plus picks.
Either way, I'm open to Eli being considered as the other QB who won with the team that drafted him because of how things went down. Its all really semantics.
As Giant fans we should bring some realism into this. And hope that a top QB prospect will raise this team from a consistent loser and non-playoff team to a consistent winning team. More clearly has to be done with this team but that shouldn't mean waiting to draft a QB when it is all ready-to-go.
And most importantly, try to ignore the dumb BBI takes that suggest do not risk drafting someone new because it is unlikely they will be a franchise QB who wins super bowls.
Yes - they now got a winning coach and qb combo so everything changes. Credit to them and their fate at this point in time. But no Giants fan would of traded positions with what the Hunts have accomplished just 4 years ago.
Its far easier said then done to get a generation coach paired with a generational qb.
Giants learn from Mahomes/KC? We never learn… they will pencil Neal in as the starting Right Tackle again and run it back with DJ.
I wish they had the balls to stamp one of these QB’s as their must have guy and move heaven and earth to draft him…
6th overall + two 1st rounders (‘25 & ‘26) should be a deal Chicago can’t refuse.
The Giants aren't a stacked and consistent playoff team and Jones isn't even close to Alex Smith, who he is in this scenario.
yes: draft position is no guarantee of success. As pointed out, just because player X was drafted first does not mean he'll end up being the the best QB in the draft.
No: the implied notion it doesn't matter where you draft, or that because only a couple of #1s have won a SB, it is more advantageous to pick lower.
The draft is NOT a crap shoot. It's all about evaluation and then making the choice you think best based upon your evaluation and the choices available. The year Mahomes was drafted, the teams that passed on him made the wrong evaluation. Had they made the right evaluation, he would have been selected, and KC would be out in the cold. That's why you always want to be picking as high as possible, and that means #1.
sometimes, being sloppy second, third, or 4th works out because the guy you want drops. That's a lucky stroke of good fortune that the teams ahead of you were wrong. Sometimes it works out because the guy you want is taken before your turn, and he busts, while sloppy second you settled for works out, but that is more a lucky stroke of fortune than good planning. Sometimes, the guy you want is taken, and works out, while your sloppy second busts, and you're left wondering why you won those meaningless games in December, dropping you down in the draft order.
The road to a successful QB is paved with good evaluation AND being in a position to take him. You need both. McAdoo was right in his evaluation of Mahomes, but he was not in position to take him (whether or not he could convince the brass to take him had he been on the board when Giants picked is a different issue).
However, with QB, there seems to be an imaginary threshold that once crossed there is no need to try and upgrade. What’s worse is these teams not only keep these “adequate” QBs, they pay them franchise money. You hear the argument all the time. “That’s the price of a starting QB.”
The draft should not be about “best” player available, but most “impactful” player available. That varies from team to team. As mentioned in the OP post…the Chiefs should not drat a QB since it is virtually impossible to improve on Mahomes and it would yield little to no impact. The Giants on the other hand can create a great impact by drafting a QB if they see one as an improvement on Jones even if not he most pressing perceived need.
They traded up to 1 for their guy in 04 and selected their guy at 6 in 2019 before their 04 borderline HOFer retired. They are now in a position this year where they once again select a top 5 qb and may trade up for “the next Pat Mahomes”.
I get the point if the topic - but how can you deny our efforts to do such. We just stopped having a franchise qb hofer no more then 4 years ago.
When a player is truly great, it's fairly obvious and does not take 6 years of debate and splitting hairs to convince others.
Instead of asking whether a QB is good, we should ask which QB can we not live without?
The Chiefs cannot live without Mahommes
The Bills cannot live without Allen
The Giants most certainly can live without Daniel Jones.
Find the one you cannot live without and they will take you far.
@AnitaMarks
More confirmation today that the #Giants DID TRY AND TRADE UP for #Mahomes. Ben loves the kid. Very upset it didn't happen
@AdamSchefter
3:07 PM · Apr 28, 2017
from Manhattan, NY
i've never really bought the ben mcadoo hero narrative, at the 2017 draft he had a ton of credibility having had the 11 win first season. the chiefs gave up #27, #91 and their 2018 first. the giants had #23 (engram), #87 (webb), and their 2018 first. so they had the ammo to win not just "try", but they made a bad decision not to do so.
and bad decisions are why he (and most coaches including the guys the nyg have hired since) end up not being andy reid part 2. and why reese hasnt gotten a job since nyg, and ross had to become a clown to get air time.
if daboll is the right guy they will start getting more decisions right, one of which will be finding a qb.
if daboll isnt the right guy they wont and the cycle will begin anew.
there is no magic wand anyone can wave to change that.
The Chiefs had the 28th pick in the 2016 draft and they made a trade offer to Seattle (which held the 26th pick) because KC wanted to draft QB Paxton Lynch. Denver (which held the 31st pick) made a better offer to Seattle, and they ended up taking Lynch at 26.
With Lynch no longer on the board, the Chiefs traded out of RD-1 down to pick 37 and took Chris Jones. Then of course in 2017 the Chiefs traded up to take Mahomes.
So if things had worked out for the Chiefs the way they originally wanted it to, it would have meant no Mahomes, no Chris Jones and Paxton Lynch would have been their QB.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
However, with QB, there seems to be an imaginary threshold that once crossed there is no need to try and upgrade. What’s worse is these teams not only keep these “adequate” QBs, they pay them franchise money. You hear the argument all the time. “That’s the price of a starting QB.”
The draft should not be about “best” player available, but most “impactful” player available. That varies from team to team. As mentioned in the OP post…the Chiefs should not drat a QB since it is virtually impossible to improve on Mahomes and it would yield little to no impact. The Giants on the other hand can create a great impact by drafting a QB if they see one as an improvement on Jones even if not he most pressing perceived need.
this post exemplifies a problem throughout fan-thinking.
who do you believe were the mahomes' in the last 2 drafts (current FO)? did they have a realistic shot at drafting that player?
there is a vast difference between "no need to try and upgrade (QB)" and "no mahomes available" since players on mahomes level only seem to come along once or twice every 10 years or so.
1. Stability at coaching.
2. The Turf at Met Life Stadium that keeps him for playing quite often
3. The players surrounding Jones.
4. The ability of our OC to have a proper game plan.
If we can fix all that I am not sure why Jones would be any worse than Mahomes.
The Chiefs had the 28th pick in the 2016 draft and they made a trade offer to Seattle (which held the 26th pick) because KC wanted to draft QB Paxton Lynch. Denver (which held the 31st pick) made a better offer to Seattle, and they ended up taking Lynch at 26.
With Lynch no longer on the board, the Chiefs traded out of RD-1 down to pick 37 and took Chris Jones. Then of course in 2017 the Chiefs traded up to take Mahomes.
So if things had worked out for the Chiefs the way they originally wanted it to, it would have meant no Mahomes, no Chris Jones and Paxton Lynch would have been their QB.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
that's a great story jim. also shows that reid wanted a qb but didnt force a qb in 2016 like jets did with hackenberg.
all decisions are a combo of skill/luck, so im pretty sure the only thing an nfl franchise can do to improve their odds of winning is hiring the most skilled decision makers they can. problem is those guys rarely hit the market.
If either of those qb's were on the Giants with our terrible o line neither would be successful. So it is a combination of having a good quarterback behind a good offense.
I never thought much of JJ in the draft but I am beginning to wonder if he does not end up as the best qb in the draft. I think the combine results for him will be interesting to watch.
He gets it wrong and his star will fizzle like so many you don't hear about any more.
No pressure, Joe!
The Chiefs had the 28th pick in the 2016 draft and they made a trade offer to Seattle (which held the 26th pick) because KC wanted to draft QB Paxton Lynch. Denver (which held the 31st pick) made a better offer to Seattle, and they ended up taking Lynch at 26.
With Lynch no longer on the board, the Chiefs traded out of RD-1 down to pick 37 and took Chris Jones. Then of course in 2017 the Chiefs traded up to take Mahomes.
So if things had worked out for the Chiefs the way they originally wanted it to, it would have meant no Mahomes, no Chris Jones and Paxton Lynch would have been their QB.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
Sshh. this ruins the narrative that Reid is a genius, everyone knew Mahomes was the best QB in '17 and everyone knew Lynch would suck. They all knew that Watson was great but he was going to get in trouble off the field and signing him to a big contract was a mistake as well.
1. Stability at coaching.
2. The Turf at Met Life Stadium that keeps him for playing quite often
3. The players surrounding Jones.
4. The ability of our OC to have a proper game plan.
If we can fix all that I am not sure why Jones would be any worse than Mahomes.
lol If I didn't check your posting history you almost convinced me this was sincere. Solid work.
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Here's a story from Mel Kiper that I just heard on a Bears' podcast.
The Chiefs had the 28th pick in the 2016 draft and they made a trade offer to Seattle (which held the 26th pick) because KC wanted to draft QB Paxton Lynch. Denver (which held the 31st pick) made a better offer to Seattle, and they ended up taking Lynch at 26.
With Lynch no longer on the board, the Chiefs traded out of RD-1 down to pick 37 and took Chris Jones. Then of course in 2017 the Chiefs traded up to take Mahomes.
So if things had worked out for the Chiefs the way they originally wanted it to, it would have meant no Mahomes, no Chris Jones and Paxton Lynch would have been their QB.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
Sshh. this ruins the narrative that Reid is a genius, everyone knew Mahomes was the best QB in '17 and everyone knew Lynch would suck. They all knew that Watson was great but he was going to get in trouble off the field and signing him to a big contract was a mistake as well.
Ben McAdoo knew...
The Chiefs had the 28th pick in the 2016 draft and they made a trade offer to Seattle (which held the 26th pick) because KC wanted to draft QB Paxton Lynch. Denver (which held the 31st pick) made a better offer to Seattle, and they ended up taking Lynch at 26.
With Lynch no longer on the board, the Chiefs traded out of RD-1 down to pick 37 and took Chris Jones. Then of course in 2017 the Chiefs traded up to take Mahomes.
So if things had worked out for the Chiefs the way they originally wanted it to, it would have meant no Mahomes, no Chris Jones and Paxton Lynch would have been their QB.
Sometimes you just get lucky.
Jim, I'd look at the comment I made regarding there being no guarantees and this specifically should be one of the top reasons why teams should feel okay moving on from a bad pick and trying again.
Drafting Jones is one thing. The fact that we continue to go down this road with him at QB is another. Its time Mara/Schoen have a real conversation about cutting their losses.
I can't guarantee the next guy they draft will be a success, but I know Jones won't be. We have to keep swinging here until we have the next Eli Manning.
There's NO way Barkley should be on this team this year, yet he probably will be.
They absolutely HAVE to move on from Jones, but probably won't
Mara's attachment to both players is a factor, but there are too many voices in the front office diluting the voice and power of the GM. I believe Schoen knows WHAT to do, but he may not be able to. Until this issue is resolved (and it may not be able to be), they will continue to be a bottom feeder in the league.
The problem is at what cost? The most extreme anti DJ poster here screams every year to 'take a QB, any QB'. That approach would have brought in another lack luster QB, leaving much better value on the board. On the flip side, quality picks were spent on bad players like Toney, or Baker (and maybe Neal), and maybe should have been spent on taking a flier on a QB. We'd probably be in the same situation, but also probably no worse off. The point is, though, that much better value than taking a flier QB could have been had over a not likely to succeed QB. Trading up uses even more resources, and should not be done unless you have good conviction.
Still, the point still stands that we should be looking to replace DJ. There's plenty of reasons why we haven't, mostly revolving around lack of realistic options given the choices and/or draft position. This year is no different. We're in a bad situation. At some point, the Giants are going to have to decide that they can't keep treading water waiting for next year for improved options. What's pissing off BBI as a whole is that this may not be the year they come to that realization, and BBI isn't patient enough to wait for the draft/FA to unfold before bitching incessantly about the incompetence of Giant brass.
I don't think drafting a QB at the top of the draft is as much of a "crapshoot" as people think it is. What you have to remember, is that the guys taken in the first few pick go to bad teams. Most often these are teams with constant turnover, impatient owners, and coaches in a "win now" situation. It is not surprising to me that so many never hit their potential.
Mahomes was picked by an organization that was winning and could afford to bring him along slowly. The saw the physical talent and could wait for the mind to catch up. Many teams can't and that is why the QBs fail. Consensus top picks rarely fool everybody.
What the Giants needs to do is determine which QB(s) they think can be a franchise guy - it can be more than one - and have a plan to go get them. And then they need to put the emphasis on grooming that player for success, whether that is starting Week 1 or not until his second year. Don't put him out there until he knows the offense and can read a defense. Some need to play to get that, some need to sit. You have to figure out which is which for your guy.
I don't care if Jones starts week 1 next year. He isn't important to this team's future. The injury guarantee is a problem so I would rather them start someone else who likely can't be much worse. But when the rookie plays should be decided on what is best for the rookie, not the season. This is a long term investment and you can't sell as soon as you need some quick cash.
This is the most important decision Schoen will make as Giants GM. If he gets it right it sets the team up for long term success. If he gets it wrong he won't be here to see the next QB.
Let's say McAdoo got his way and the Giants drafted Mahomes. I guess he could have sat behind Eli for at least a year, but then what? Instead of Reid, he would have had McAdoo as his coach. That's the same Ben McAdoo who took a 2 time Super Bowl MVP and "corrected" his basics McAdoo would have taken away every trait from Mahomes that made him great.
And if the Bears had picked him instead of Trubisky, he probably would have had to play immediately instead of sitting the first year to learn.
2. If the guy you drafted is going to be good, he's probably going to be good early. Mahomes was an MVP in year 2. Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, and Stroud are other examples that come to mind of guys playing very well immediately. It doesn't take many years; if you aren't seeing it by the end of year 2, it's time to start exploring options.
guess the year 2:
59%, 3100 yards, 20 tds, 9 ints, 6.7 y/a, +500 rushing 4.7 y/c.
There is more to sitting that learning from the starter. What you see in the NFL from defenses is not what you saw in college. Some guys get that right away, some need time. Mahomes played in an air raid system that does not translate to the NFL as easy, and so he may have needed more mental reps and coaching than someone coming from a pro-style offense.
I have no idea if that was the case. All of us can only guess. But I think you need to determine what a specific player needs, not simply assume what you want is what will make them succeed.
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if you aren't seeing it by the end of year 2, it's time to start exploring options.
guess the year 2:
59%, 3100 yards, 20 tds, 9 ints, 6.7 y/a, +500 rushing 4.7 y/c.
I think Josh Allen is an exception in a lot of ways. The improvement he's shown as a passer isn't something I'd use as a model.
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If anything I think Reid made a mistake not starting him from the outset. Mahomes didn't learn to play the way he does by watching Alex Smith. Mahomes was a great NFL QB the day he was drafted.
There is more to sitting that learning from the starter. What you see in the NFL from defenses is not what you saw in college. Some guys get that right away, some need time. Mahomes played in an air raid system that does not translate to the NFL as easy, and so he may have needed more mental reps and coaching than someone coming from a pro-style offense.
I have no idea if that was the case. All of us can only guess. But I think you need to determine what a specific player needs, not simply assume what you want is what will make them succeed.
sitting is a lot more about learning the playbook/scheme and learning how to prepare in the NFL from the coach than whoever the starting qb is.
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In comment 16396701 Go Terps said:
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if you aren't seeing it by the end of year 2, it's time to start exploring options.
guess the year 2:
59%, 3100 yards, 20 tds, 9 ints, 6.7 y/a, +500 rushing 4.7 y/c.
I think Josh Allen is an exception in a lot of ways. The improvement he's shown as a passer isn't something I'd use as a model.
i agree except for the fact that the giants are coached by the guy who made the right assessments on allen before it was obvious to the rest of us - which circles back to the point of my first post that these decisions always start with the guy making them more than anything else.
But yeah, you don't need the first pick in the draft to be successful, but I don't think that means you go out of your way to avoid a first overall QB just becasue more often that not, they don't end up being the best QB in the draft. Probably holds true for most positions; but statistically speaking, the higehr the draft pick, the more likely they are to be successful.
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In comment 16396716 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16396701 Go Terps said:
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if you aren't seeing it by the end of year 2, it's time to start exploring options.
guess the year 2:
59%, 3100 yards, 20 tds, 9 ints, 6.7 y/a, +500 rushing 4.7 y/c.
I think Josh Allen is an exception in a lot of ways. The improvement he's shown as a passer isn't something I'd use as a model.
i agree except for the fact that the giants are coached by the guy who made the right assessments on allen before it was obvious to the rest of us - which circles back to the point of my first post that these decisions always start with the guy making them more than anything else.
These same guys saw fit to pay Jones though, so one has to wonder about their acumen scouting QBs.
How many Mahomes are there in the past 10, 20, 30 years? How likely are Giants or any NFL team find a Mahomes level QB in the future drafts? How likely they can find a Purdy level QB in the future drafts?
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In comment 16396720 Go Terps said:
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In comment 16396716 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16396701 Go Terps said:
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if you aren't seeing it by the end of year 2, it's time to start exploring options.
guess the year 2:
59%, 3100 yards, 20 tds, 9 ints, 6.7 y/a, +500 rushing 4.7 y/c.
I think Josh Allen is an exception in a lot of ways. The improvement he's shown as a passer isn't something I'd use as a model.
i agree except for the fact that the giants are coached by the guy who made the right assessments on allen before it was obvious to the rest of us - which circles back to the point of my first post that these decisions always start with the guy making them more than anything else.
These same guys saw fit to pay Jones though, so one has to wonder about their acumen scouting QBs.
same guys also won a road playoff game with jones. and games against more than 1 playoff team this year with 2 different backup qbs. but i get it, harder to do the hyperbole schtick when opening both eyes.
The Giants seem to have evaluated him with their hearts and not their heads.