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2024 Draft: QB Discussion

Somers24 : 2/13/2024 12:02 pm
1. Caleb Williams:

-Pros: Elite in many ways: pocket presence, arm, creativity.
-Cons: There are whispers (or more) of a major ego and yes, he is a high risk/reward type.
-Comp: Ultimate gunslinger. I'll stop short of a Mahomes comp even though there are some obvious similarities. So, somewhat of a downshift to Brett Favre.

2. Jayden Daniels

-Pros: Rare speed for a QB (probably sub 4.40), easy arm strength. Flick of the wrist power like Warren Moon or Mike Vick. Has toughness that belies his body type.
-Cons: Very thin frame and takes some tough hits. You wonder about durability. The 210lb is has been listed at likely seems questionable.
-Comp: Randall Cunningham.


2a. Drake Maye:

-Pros: Great arm and size (prototypical height/weight). Good not great athlete.
-Cons: His team this past year was mediocre and his stats suffered.
-Comp: Justin Herbert.

4. JJ McCarthy:

-Pros: Intangibles kid with athleticism. Winner. Tough. Likely a sub 4.50 guy. 6'3" and 210.
-Cons: With Michigan's great running game and OL, there was little pressure on him to be more than a game manager. No indication that he is a gunslinger type.
-Comp: I do think he is better than an Alex Smith type. Has a lot of similarities to Jalen Hurts (less a power runner and more a speed runner but otherwise similar).
-Question: I am unsure of his arm talent and ability to spearhead an offense rather than "manage it".

5. Michael Penix:

-Pros: Maybe the best pure passer in this draft and in this great class, that is saying something. Throws with power, touch and anticipation. Massive hands that allows him to whip it around the field like one of those grooved Nerf balls. Also a great kid who has top leadership traits (like Teddy Bridgewater personality wise).
-Cons: Injuries. Has 2 ACLs, shoulder and rib injuries. These injuries have taken their toll on his athleticism. Now is strictly a pocket passer.
-Comp: Talent wise, the comps to Tua are pure nonsense. Has way more arm talent than Tua. If healthy, he would be more of a Matt Stafford type prospect. But if I were a GM, the injuries would make me shy away inside the first 100 picks.

6. Bo Nix;

-Pros: Solid in all facets; tangible and intangible. Experienced.
-Cons: Strikes me as a very ordinary prospect and the Senior Bowl week added to that opinion.
-Comp: Mitch Trubisky.

Others:

-I like Jordan Travis as a Bridgewater like career backup.
-I haven't seen enough of Michael Pratt.
-I don't think Joe Milton is anything more than Jacob Eason (massive arm but not a viable QB prospect).




I haven't watched enough of him  
Big Rick in FL : 2/13/2024 12:06 pm : link
But I've seen a lot of people say JJ has great arm talent.
Good job, solid write ups.  
Section331 : 2/13/2024 12:08 pm : link
Funny that you mention Favre as Williams’ comp (I mostly agree with it), but when I watched Mahomes video when he entered the draft, the one guy he reminded me of was Favre. He took a lot more chances at TX Tech than he does now.
Williams  
Mike in NY : 2/13/2024 12:13 pm : link
I would list as a con the fumble issue and overreliance on his athleticism versus proper mechanics/fundamentals. Go Terps used Kyler Murray yesterday as a comp and I kinda like that. Favre put the ball into harms way more trying to fit into the smallest of windows which I do not see Williams doing. With all of the hype Mahomes gets (and rightfully so), Williams tries to make every play look spectacular rather than focusing on doing it right.
Maye  
Mike in NY : 2/13/2024 12:15 pm : link
I would list as a con inconsistent play when faced against the highest competition. Need more scouting to see if it was because of Mack Brown not really developing NFL QB's and decline in surrounding talent versus a problem that would be more difficult for pro coaching to correct.
Are you a scout?  
BigBlue7 : 2/13/2024 12:15 pm : link
Did you watch each of these players play every game?

Or did you watch youtube highlights and read a bunch of writeups on the internet and then just put this list together?
The Matt Stafford arm talent comparison for Penix...  
Capt. Don : 2/13/2024 12:15 pm : link
is quite the statement.

As far as arm talent, Stafford is as good as any in his generation.
at this stage i think our ability to rank qbs is missing too many key  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 12:17 pm : link
factors like their aptitude/personality fit with the coaches who would be selecting and coaching them.

i think time and time again we see that as a big factor in player success and the coaches themselves are only just figuring that out as they meet these guys and go through visits, interviews, etc.

i do think they end up selecting a name on that list in round 1 though.
Nix  
Mike in NY : 2/13/2024 12:22 pm : link
I don't see Trubisky. Trubisky was an upside selection whereas Nix is more of what you see is what you get. I have said elsewhere that whether he has success in the NFL will depend largely on the system he is drafted in. A team that focuses on the short passing game and getting guys open quickly in space he could thrive, but if you want more downfield attack he will struggle.
RE: The Matt Stafford arm talent comparison for Penix...  
Heisenberg : 2/13/2024 12:23 pm : link
In comment 16397924 Capt. Don said:
Quote:
is quite the statement.

As far as arm talent, Stafford is as good as any in his generation.


Yeah, for me, the ceiling comp for Penix is not Stafford at all. The ceiling comp is a lefty Phillip Rivers.
RE: Are you a scout?  
Somers24 : 2/13/2024 12:24 pm : link
In comment 16397923 BigBlue7 said:
Quote:
Did you watch each of these players play every game?

Or did you watch youtube highlights and read a bunch of writeups on the internet and then just put this list together?


I am not a scout. Not nearly on say, Sy's level - for example.

Just have always been a draft nerd and watch a ton of college football.
I'm not as high on Jayden Daniels  
UberAlias : 2/13/2024 12:25 pm : link
as most. I know it's not a popular opinion, but he doesn't match the hype, in my eyes.
RE: Nix  
Eric on Li : 2/13/2024 12:25 pm : link
In comment 16397931 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
I don't see Trubisky. Trubisky was an upside selection whereas Nix is more of what you see is what you get. I have said elsewhere that whether he has success in the NFL will depend largely on the system he is drafted in. A team that focuses on the short passing game and getting guys open quickly in space he could thrive, but if you want more downfield attack he will struggle.


agreed. he's not brees or rivers, but as a prospect i think he is in that quality range with overall arm strength being the concern. he wont be qb2 as rivers was but i could see a team taking him top half of round 1 or i could see him falling to the top of round 2. dont see him falling farther than that but i guess you never know.
RE: RE: The Matt Stafford arm talent comparison for Penix...  
Somers24 : 2/13/2024 12:27 pm : link
In comment 16397934 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
In comment 16397924 Capt. Don said:


Quote:


is quite the statement.

As far as arm talent, Stafford is as good as any in his generation.



Yeah, for me, the ceiling comp for Penix is not Stafford at all. The ceiling comp is a lefty Phillip Rivers.


I don't think Penix will have Stafford's career either. I think injuries will prevent that. But I do think he has phenomenal arm talent with 100x the passing ability of Rivers, whose arm was quite poor (his talent resided between his ears and kudos to him for overcoming a poor athletic profile).
McCarthy Arm Strength  
NoBelichickIn25 : 2/13/2024 12:29 pm : link
He may have the strongest arm in this draft class. Again he is 21. Years matter when comparing 21, 22, 23, and 24 year olds. He was able
to throw it 80 yards while in high school. His fastball is elite, made countless high velocity throws through traffic. Harbaugh says he skyrockets as teams get to know him and break him down. I trust Harbaugh on QBs. I like that he has the physical skills, has had good coaching, yet is young enough to be further molded. Also young enough to stash a year. Reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.
RE: McCarthy Arm Strength  
NJBlueTuna : 2/13/2024 12:39 pm : link
In comment 16397943 NoBelichickIn25 said:
Quote:
He may have the strongest arm in this draft class. Again he is 21. Years matter when comparing 21, 22, 23, and 24 year olds. He was able
to throw it 80 yards while in high school. His fastball is elite, made countless high velocity throws through traffic. Harbaugh says he skyrockets as teams get to know him and break him down. I trust Harbaugh on QBs. I like that he has the physical skills, has had good coaching, yet is young enough to be further molded. Also young enough to stash a year. Reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.


JJ is that you?
RE: McCarthy Arm Strength  
Somers24 : 2/13/2024 12:40 pm : link
In comment 16397943 NoBelichickIn25 said:
Quote:
He may have the strongest arm in this draft class. Again he is 21. Years matter when comparing 21, 22, 23, and 24 year olds. He was able
to throw it 80 yards while in high school. His fastball is elite, made countless high velocity throws through traffic. Harbaugh says he skyrockets as teams get to know him and break him down. I trust Harbaugh on QBs. I like that he has the physical skills, has had good coaching, yet is young enough to be further molded. Also young enough to stash a year. Reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.


That's interesting and encouraging. He's the one guy where, because Michigan has more of a run first mentality, I have less of a finger on the pulse with him.
RE: RE: McCarthy Arm Strength  
Somers24 : 2/13/2024 12:40 pm : link
In comment 16397962 NJBlueTuna said:
Quote:
In comment 16397943 NoBelichickIn25 said:


Quote:


He may have the strongest arm in this draft class. Again he is 21. Years matter when comparing 21, 22, 23, and 24 year olds. He was able
to throw it 80 yards while in high school. His fastball is elite, made countless high velocity throws through traffic. Harbaugh says he skyrockets as teams get to know him and break him down. I trust Harbaugh on QBs. I like that he has the physical skills, has had good coaching, yet is young enough to be further molded. Also young enough to stash a year. Reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.



JJ is that you?


LOL
RE: RE: McCarthy Arm Strength  
Mike in NY : 2/13/2024 12:41 pm : link
In comment 16397962 NJBlueTuna said:
Quote:
In comment 16397943 NoBelichickIn25 said:


Quote:


He may have the strongest arm in this draft class. Again he is 21. Years matter when comparing 21, 22, 23, and 24 year olds. He was able
to throw it 80 yards while in high school. His fastball is elite, made countless high velocity throws through traffic. Harbaugh says he skyrockets as teams get to know him and break him down. I trust Harbaugh on QBs. I like that he has the physical skills, has had good coaching, yet is young enough to be further molded. Also young enough to stash a year. Reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.



JJ is that you?


Maybe it is the Carson Strong fanboy
RE: RE: RE: McCarthy Arm Strength  
NoBelichickIn25 : 2/13/2024 1:03 pm : link
In comment 16397965 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16397962 NJBlueTuna said:


Quote:


In comment 16397943 NoBelichickIn25 said:


Quote:


He may have the strongest arm in this draft class. Again he is 21. Years matter when comparing 21, 22, 23, and 24 year olds. He was able
to throw it 80 yards while in high school. His fastball is elite, made countless high velocity throws through traffic. Harbaugh says he skyrockets as teams get to know him and break him down. I trust Harbaugh on QBs. I like that he has the physical skills, has had good coaching, yet is young enough to be further molded. Also young enough to stash a year. Reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.



JJ is that you?



Maybe it is the Carson Strong fanboy


Carson Strong didn’t win a national title

As for his arm this is a breakdown of throws he made as a 19 year old.

https://youtu.be/mUwVP4hp8h4?si=oD9flSzNZnmIwHsS
RE: RE: RE: RE: McCarthy Arm Strength  
Mike in NY : 2/13/2024 1:07 pm : link
In comment 16397986 NoBelichickIn25 said:
Quote:
In comment 16397965 Mike in NY said:


Quote:


In comment 16397962 NJBlueTuna said:


Quote:


In comment 16397943 NoBelichickIn25 said:


Quote:


He may have the strongest arm in this draft class. Again he is 21. Years matter when comparing 21, 22, 23, and 24 year olds. He was able
to throw it 80 yards while in high school. His fastball is elite, made countless high velocity throws through traffic. Harbaugh says he skyrockets as teams get to know him and break him down. I trust Harbaugh on QBs. I like that he has the physical skills, has had good coaching, yet is young enough to be further molded. Also young enough to stash a year. Reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.



JJ is that you?



Maybe it is the Carson Strong fanboy



Carson Strong didn’t win a national title

As for his arm this is a breakdown of throws he made as a 19 year old.

https://youtu.be/mUwVP4hp8h4?si=oD9flSzNZnmIwHsS


JJ McCarthy alone didn't win a National title. There was a poster here immediately before 2022 Draft saying how Carson Strong was the best QB in that crop, first rounder, a future HOFer, etc. That is what my post was a reference to.
Maye-Herbert is such a lazy comp  
Cyrus the Great : 2/13/2024 1:21 pm : link
The only reason anyone is making this comp is because they have some physical resembelance. Half of the draft comps that are made every year are usually just a player who physically looks kind of like the prospect. Maye is much more mobile than Herbert. And I'm not trying to single out OP for this since it seems everyone is doing it.
I know the game has changed but I don’t think a QB can be successful  
Ivan15 : 2/13/2024 1:33 pm : link
Unless he can throw from the pocket. Ability in other situations is secondary.

From what I have seen, Williams isn’t good from the pocket. His best plays come from more off-script throws.

Maye “looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane” so no thanks. I don’t see any greatness there.

Daniels is very interesting because the only real negative I hear is his slight frame. I’m not sure I would go get him at 3 or 4, but I like him enough to watch closely at the combine.

McCarthy is hard to gauge. He may only be a game manager but if he can win that way and I really want a QB, I would take him at 6 or in a trade down.

Penix is and will continue to be damaged goods. How do you overlook the injury history. Nix, nothing special it appears. If it gets out of the first round and Penix and Nix are still there, I might prefer taking a chance on Rattler.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: McCarthy Arm Strength  
NoBelichickIn25 : 2/13/2024 1:35 pm : link
In comment 16397991 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16397986 NoBelichickIn25 said:


Quote:


In comment 16397965 Mike in NY said:


Quote:


In comment 16397962 NJBlueTuna said:


Quote:


In comment 16397943 NoBelichickIn25 said:


Quote:


He may have the strongest arm in this draft class. Again he is 21. Years matter when comparing 21, 22, 23, and 24 year olds. He was able
to throw it 80 yards while in high school. His fastball is elite, made countless high velocity throws through traffic. Harbaugh says he skyrockets as teams get to know him and break him down. I trust Harbaugh on QBs. I like that he has the physical skills, has had good coaching, yet is young enough to be further molded. Also young enough to stash a year. Reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.



JJ is that you?



Maybe it is the Carson Strong fanboy



Carson Strong didn’t win a national title

As for his arm this is a breakdown of throws he made as a 19 year old.

https://youtu.be/mUwVP4hp8h4?si=oD9flSzNZnmIwHsS



JJ McCarthy alone didn't win a National title. There was a poster here immediately before 2022 Draft saying how Carson Strong was the best QB in that crop, first rounder, a future HOFer, etc. That is what my post was a reference to.


Im not making any claims with McCarthy aside from he has franchise QB tools, the work is in front of him same as it is for every prospect in this draft class. At age 21 he can afford and possibly benefit from sitting while Jones season plays out. Add weight, learn the scheme, work on things Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney suggest. If he went back he is a top 10 pick in 2025, we get him a year early to groom.
RE: RE: RE: The Matt Stafford arm talent comparison for Penix...  
Amtoft : 2/13/2024 1:37 pm : link
In comment 16397942 Somers24 said:
Quote:
In comment 16397934 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 16397924 Capt. Don said:


Quote:


is quite the statement.

As far as arm talent, Stafford is as good as any in his generation.



Yeah, for me, the ceiling comp for Penix is not Stafford at all. The ceiling comp is a lefty Phillip Rivers.



I don't think Penix will have Stafford's career either. I think injuries will prevent that. But I do think he has phenomenal arm talent with 100x the passing ability of Rivers, whose arm was quite poor (his talent resided between his ears and kudos to him for overcoming a poor athletic profile).


Stafford had a cannon coming out... Penix is nothing like Stafford. His arm isn't close.
The problem with stating comps when comparing QBs  
Manhattan : 2/13/2024 1:39 pm : link
is that unless you are giving a low comp and a high comp, then you are just making a projection and including your bias. That's how you wind up with Nix is Trubisky while Penix is Stafford. Sure, maybe but you could also say Penix is Brisset and Nix is Dak Prescott. It's one thing to state a single comp when talking about a single player, but the miment you're comparing players I think the comps need to cover a high low range.

A few weeks ago someone said Jayden Daniels' *comp* was Lamar Jackson, while CW's *comp* was Jameis Winston. All that guy was saying was "I like Daniels and I don't like Williams. Obviously, because he was choosing a high comp for JD and a low comp for CW.
RE: I know the game has changed but I don’t think a QB can be successful  
Manhattan : 2/13/2024 1:41 pm : link
In comment 16398014 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
Unless he can throw from the pocket. Ability in other situations is secondary.

From what I have seen, Williams isn’t good from the pocket. His best plays come from more off-script throws.

Maye “looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane” so no thanks. I don’t see any greatness there.

Daniels is very interesting because the only real negative I hear is his slight frame. I’m not sure I would go get him at 3 or 4, but I like him enough to watch closely at the combine.

McCarthy is hard to gauge. He may only be a game manager but if he can win that way and I really want a QB, I would take him at 6 or in a trade down.

Penix is and will continue to be damaged goods. How do you overlook the injury history. Nix, nothing special it appears. If it gets out of the first round and Penix and Nix are still there, I might prefer taking a chance on Rattler.


If you think Williams doesn't make plays from the pocket, you have no idea what you are looking at. I don't mean to be harsh but he's the only QB in this class who makes a point of extending the pocket and fighting to throw from the pocket rather than bail. Williams has incredible pocket awareness, like Mahomes.
RE: The problem with stating comps when comparing QBs  
Mike in NY : 2/13/2024 1:47 pm : link
In comment 16398021 Manhattan said:
Quote:
is that unless you are giving a low comp and a high comp, then you are just making a projection and including your bias. That's how you wind up with Nix is Trubisky while Penix is Stafford. Sure, maybe but you could also say Penix is Brisset and Nix is Dak Prescott. It's one thing to state a single comp when talking about a single player, but the miment you're comparing players I think the comps need to cover a high low range.

A few weeks ago someone said Jayden Daniels' *comp* was Lamar Jackson, while CW's *comp* was Jameis Winston. All that guy was saying was "I like Daniels and I don't like Williams. Obviously, because he was choosing a high comp for JD and a low comp for CW.


You misunderstood my post regarding comping CW to Jameis Winston. I was tired of the people who were saying that CW was a HOF talent and using HOF/HOF caliber players only as comps to various tools and therefore we must draft him. All that means to me is "I like Williams." I was merely pointing out that the same "tools" also produce less flattering results. There is more to playing the QB position in the NFL than tools.
RE: RE: I know the game has changed but I don’t think a QB can be successful  
Somers24 : 2/13/2024 1:50 pm : link
In comment 16398026 Manhattan said:
Quote:
In comment 16398014 Ivan15 said:


Quote:


Unless he can throw from the pocket. Ability in other situations is secondary.

From what I have seen, Williams isn’t good from the pocket. His best plays come from more off-script throws.

Maye “looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane” so no thanks. I don’t see any greatness there.

Daniels is very interesting because the only real negative I hear is his slight frame. I’m not sure I would go get him at 3 or 4, but I like him enough to watch closely at the combine.

McCarthy is hard to gauge. He may only be a game manager but if he can win that way and I really want a QB, I would take him at 6 or in a trade down.

Penix is and will continue to be damaged goods. How do you overlook the injury history. Nix, nothing special it appears. If it gets out of the first round and Penix and Nix are still there, I might prefer taking a chance on Rattler.



If you think Williams doesn't make plays from the pocket, you have no idea what you are looking at. I don't mean to be harsh but he's the only QB in this class who makes a point of extending the pocket and fighting to throw from the pocket rather than bail. Williams has incredible pocket awareness, like Mahomes.


Totally agree, excellent points.
RE: RE: The problem with stating comps when comparing QBs  
Manhattan : 2/13/2024 1:52 pm : link
In comment 16398034 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16398021 Manhattan said:


Quote:


is that unless you are giving a low comp and a high comp, then you are just making a projection and including your bias. That's how you wind up with Nix is Trubisky while Penix is Stafford. Sure, maybe but you could also say Penix is Brisset and Nix is Dak Prescott. It's one thing to state a single comp when talking about a single player, but the miment you're comparing players I think the comps need to cover a high low range.

A few weeks ago someone said Jayden Daniels' *comp* was Lamar Jackson, while CW's *comp* was Jameis Winston. All that guy was saying was "I like Daniels and I don't like Williams. Obviously, because he was choosing a high comp for JD and a low comp for CW.



You misunderstood my post regarding comping CW to Jameis Winston. I was tired of the people who were saying that CW was a HOF talent and using HOF/HOF caliber players only as comps to various tools and therefore we must draft him. All that means to me is "I like Williams." I was merely pointing out that the same "tools" also produce less flattering results. There is more to playing the QB position in the NFL than tools.


I didn't remember it was you. And it's not personal. But let's hash it out. You said Daniels was like one of the best QBs of the generation and 2-time MVP and Williams was compared to a somewhat talented player who is a clown and an overall bust, never mind their games don't really resemble each other. Which is fine, you are allowed to have an opinion, but the opinion is not some measured comp between two players, the opinion is, "I think Daniels will be a stud and I think Williams will be a clown."
There seems to be some confusion  
Mike from Ohio : 2/13/2024 1:53 pm : link
between the terms "arm talent" and "strong arm." They are not the same thing.

Arm talent means you can make all the throws, but not just get the ball from point A to point B fast. Some throws need zip, some need touch. If you are just a guy with a strong arm, I wouldn't say you necessarily have arm talent.

Said another way, "look how far this guy can throw the ball!" is only one of many facets in assessing arm talent.
RE: The problem with stating comps when comparing QBs  
Somers24 : 2/13/2024 1:54 pm : link
In comment 16398021 Manhattan said:
Quote:
is that unless you are giving a low comp and a high comp, then you are just making a projection and including your bias. That's how you wind up with Nix is Trubisky while Penix is Stafford. Sure, maybe but you could also say Penix is Brisset and Nix is Dak Prescott. It's one thing to state a single comp when talking about a single player, but the miment you're comparing players I think the comps need to cover a high low range.




A few weeks ago someone said Jayden Daniels' *comp* was Lamar Jackson, while CW's *comp* was Jameis Winston. All that guy was saying was "I like Daniels and I don't like Williams. Obviously, because he was choosing a high comp for JD and a low comp for CW.



Just want to state again that I don't think Penix = Stafford. I think he also has elite passing skills (arm strength, accuracy and anticipation). Unfortunately, I think injuries will be his demise and he will not get near that ceiling.
RE: There seems to be some confusion  
Somers24 : 2/13/2024 1:55 pm : link
In comment 16398046 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
between the terms "arm talent" and "strong arm." They are not the same thing.

Arm talent means you can make all the throws, but not just get the ball from point A to point B fast. Some throws need zip, some need touch. If you are just a guy with a strong arm, I wouldn't say you necessarily have arm talent.

Said another way, "look how far this guy can throw the ball!" is only one of many facets in assessing arm talent.


Agreed. Joe Milton is a thrower (strong ass arm). Williams/Penix etc are pitchers (skillful passers; arm talent).
RE: RE: RE: The problem with stating comps when comparing QBs  
Mike in NY : 2/13/2024 2:02 pm : link
In comment 16398044 Manhattan said:
Quote:
In comment 16398034 Mike in NY said:


Quote:


In comment 16398021 Manhattan said:


Quote:


is that unless you are giving a low comp and a high comp, then you are just making a projection and including your bias. That's how you wind up with Nix is Trubisky while Penix is Stafford. Sure, maybe but you could also say Penix is Brisset and Nix is Dak Prescott. It's one thing to state a single comp when talking about a single player, but the miment you're comparing players I think the comps need to cover a high low range.

A few weeks ago someone said Jayden Daniels' *comp* was Lamar Jackson, while CW's *comp* was Jameis Winston. All that guy was saying was "I like Daniels and I don't like Williams. Obviously, because he was choosing a high comp for JD and a low comp for CW.



You misunderstood my post regarding comping CW to Jameis Winston. I was tired of the people who were saying that CW was a HOF talent and using HOF/HOF caliber players only as comps to various tools and therefore we must draft him. All that means to me is "I like Williams." I was merely pointing out that the same "tools" also produce less flattering results. There is more to playing the QB position in the NFL than tools.



I didn't remember it was you. And it's not personal. But let's hash it out. You said Daniels was like one of the best QBs of the generation and 2-time MVP and Williams was compared to a somewhat talented player who is a clown and an overall bust, never mind their games don't really resemble each other. Which is fine, you are allowed to have an opinion, but the opinion is not some measured comp between two players, the opinion is, "I think Daniels will be a stud and I think Williams will be a clown."


I don't think I compared Daniels to Lamar. I did use the Winston to Williams because the reason people were using Mahomes, Elway, etc. with Williams were the same tools people lauded about Wintson. Namely his arm, ability to move the pocket, turnovers due to trying to make highlight plays. In Winston's case it manifested with INT's whereas Williams it is more his fumbles and not being able to close out games. Winston was 26-1 in his college career (for those who value winning percentage) whereas Caleb Williams was 23-10. As I said elsewhere, if we are using current players I think Go Terps's mention of Kyler Murray is closer to where I see CW's current game.
If you want a comp for Penix: Eli Manning  
Go Terps : 2/13/2024 2:02 pm : link
Both adept at:

- Throwing with anticipation
- Throws outside the numbers
- Accurate deep balls
- Accurate back shoulder throws

Issues with both:

- Pure pocket passers
- Can have accuracy issues short and over the middle

IMO the best thing the Giants have on offense is deep speed at WR. No one in this class would take better advantage of it than Penix.
Mike in NY  
Manhattan : 2/13/2024 2:03 pm : link
one more note. I get that it's weird to comp a QB to the greatest player of the generation and maybe the greatest player of all time. You'll likely never lose money betting against a prospect becoming as good as the greatest player of all time. But I don't think that's what the comps are saying.

Williams *looks* like Mahomes when he plays, and nobody else does. That's why it is a useful comp. It doesn't mean he will become as good as PM or that he will even be a top-10 QB. But he has strong aspects of his game that resemble Mahomes, how he manipulates the pocket and creates time, how he delivers the ball with power as he goes to second and third reads. He looks a lot like Patrick. It's exciting. But it doesn't mean folks are saying he is Mahomes. He's not. There will be big differences in the NFL. He'll do some things less well, but he might do other things better. But we all talk about how we want a Mahomes, and here is a guy who has some similar traits. He is the only QB with any chance to play with Mahomes' creativity, and all some folks want to do is knock him down. Why? I bet many of these same folks were Mahomes doubters in 2017. I'm with you, I know he won't be as good, but I'd move heaven and earth to get him on my team, including 3 first round picks. I think the chance is worth it.

By the way the Kyler Murray comp for CW isn't bad in my opinion, but he is bigger, stronger, and does every aspect of pocket passing, better than Kyler, including having top-5 elite arm talent/strength. Add those qualities to Kyler's profile and you have a hell of a QB.
RE: RE: RE: RE: The problem with stating comps when comparing QBs  
Manhattan : 2/13/2024 2:08 pm : link
In comment 16398062 Mike in NY said:
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In comment 16398044 Manhattan said:


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In comment 16398034 Mike in NY said:


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In comment 16398021 Manhattan said:


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is that unless you are giving a low comp and a high comp, then you are just making a projection and including your bias. That's how you wind up with Nix is Trubisky while Penix is Stafford. Sure, maybe but you could also say Penix is Brisset and Nix is Dak Prescott. It's one thing to state a single comp when talking about a single player, but the miment you're comparing players I think the comps need to cover a high low range.

A few weeks ago someone said Jayden Daniels' *comp* was Lamar Jackson, while CW's *comp* was Jameis Winston. All that guy was saying was "I like Daniels and I don't like Williams. Obviously, because he was choosing a high comp for JD and a low comp for CW.



You misunderstood my post regarding comping CW to Jameis Winston. I was tired of the people who were saying that CW was a HOF talent and using HOF/HOF caliber players only as comps to various tools and therefore we must draft him. All that means to me is "I like Williams." I was merely pointing out that the same "tools" also produce less flattering results. There is more to playing the QB position in the NFL than tools.



I didn't remember it was you. And it's not personal. But let's hash it out. You said Daniels was like one of the best QBs of the generation and 2-time MVP and Williams was compared to a somewhat talented player who is a clown and an overall bust, never mind their games don't really resemble each other. Which is fine, you are allowed to have an opinion, but the opinion is not some measured comp between two players, the opinion is, "I think Daniels will be a stud and I think Williams will be a clown."



I don't think I compared Daniels to Lamar. I did use the Winston to Williams because the reason people were using Mahomes, Elway, etc. with Williams were the same tools people lauded about Wintson. Namely his arm, ability to move the pocket, turnovers due to trying to make highlight plays. In Winston's case it manifested with INT's whereas Williams it is more his fumbles and not being able to close out games. Winston was 26-1 in his college career (for those who value winning percentage) whereas Caleb Williams was 23-10. As I said elsewhere, if we are using current players I think Go Terps's mention of Kyler Murray is closer to where I see CW's current game.


Fair enough. I don't agree with the comp regardless, but if you take the ints out of Winson's game, you have a top-5 QB. I think there are other key differences related to athleticism and how they win in the pocket.
RE: Mike in NY  
Mike in NY : 2/13/2024 2:22 pm : link
In comment 16398065 Manhattan said:
Quote:
one more note. I get that it's weird to comp a QB to the greatest player of the generation and maybe the greatest player of all time. You'll likely never lose money betting against a prospect becoming as good as the greatest player of all time. But I don't think that's what the comps are saying.

Williams *looks* like Mahomes when he plays, and nobody else does. That's why it is a useful comp. It doesn't mean he will become as good as PM or that he will even be a top-10 QB. But he has strong aspects of his game that resemble Mahomes, how he manipulates the pocket and creates time, how he delivers the ball with power as he goes to second and third reads. He looks a lot like Patrick. It's exciting. But it doesn't mean folks are saying he is Mahomes. He's not. There will be big differences in the NFL. He'll do some things less well, but he might do other things better. But we all talk about how we want a Mahomes, and here is a guy who has some similar traits. He is the only QB with any chance to play with Mahomes' creativity, and all some folks want to do is knock him down. Why? I bet many of these same folks were Mahomes doubters in 2017. I'm with you, I know he won't be as good, but I'd move heaven and earth to get him on my team, including 3 first round picks. I think the chance is worth it.

By the way the Kyler Murray comp for CW isn't bad in my opinion, but he is bigger, stronger, and does every aspect of pocket passing, better than Kyler, including having top-5 elite arm talent/strength. Add those qualities to Kyler's profile and you have a hell of a QB.


Williams looks like Mahomes because he tries to turn everything into a highlight play rather than going through progressions, using proper fundamentals, etc. That works to an extent in college, but not so much in the pros. What makes Mahomes great is that he has a counter for everything you throw at him. I don't see that with CW.
RE: RE: Mike in NY  
Manhattan : 2/13/2024 2:29 pm : link
In comment 16398083 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16398065 Manhattan said:


Quote:


one more note. I get that it's weird to comp a QB to the greatest player of the generation and maybe the greatest player of all time. You'll likely never lose money betting against a prospect becoming as good as the greatest player of all time. But I don't think that's what the comps are saying.

Williams *looks* like Mahomes when he plays, and nobody else does. That's why it is a useful comp. It doesn't mean he will become as good as PM or that he will even be a top-10 QB. But he has strong aspects of his game that resemble Mahomes, how he manipulates the pocket and creates time, how he delivers the ball with power as he goes to second and third reads. He looks a lot like Patrick. It's exciting. But it doesn't mean folks are saying he is Mahomes. He's not. There will be big differences in the NFL. He'll do some things less well, but he might do other things better. But we all talk about how we want a Mahomes, and here is a guy who has some similar traits. He is the only QB with any chance to play with Mahomes' creativity, and all some folks want to do is knock him down. Why? I bet many of these same folks were Mahomes doubters in 2017. I'm with you, I know he won't be as good, but I'd move heaven and earth to get him on my team, including 3 first round picks. I think the chance is worth it.

By the way the Kyler Murray comp for CW isn't bad in my opinion, but he is bigger, stronger, and does every aspect of pocket passing, better than Kyler, including having top-5 elite arm talent/strength. Add those qualities to Kyler's profile and you have a hell of a QB.



Williams looks like Mahomes because he tries to turn everything into a highlight play rather than going through progressions, using proper fundamentals, etc. That works to an extent in college, but not so much in the pros. What makes Mahomes great is that he has a counter for everything you throw at him. I don't see that with CW.


I respect your opinion. But Williams does go through progressions. That's on video. He sometimes passes on easy plays to go big game hunting. That's an aspect of Williams' play that works in CFB and won't work as much in the NFL. But he has the ability to extend the play and go big game hunting, while others don't to the same degree. But yes, you can't do that all the time in the NFL. He needs a coach to help him understand when to rein it in. Also, keep in mind, he is an elite athlete, you ought to expect him to have the instincts and sense to figure out what he can get away with and when. He will be cognizant that he is on the field with faster and stronger athletes than he competed against in CFB.
RE: If you want a comp for Penix: Eli Manning  
JoeSchoens11 : 2/13/2024 4:58 pm : link
In comment 16398063 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Both adept at:

- Throwing with anticipation
- Throws outside the numbers
- Accurate deep balls
- Accurate back shoulder throws

Issues with both:

- Pure pocket passers
- Can have accuracy issues short and over the middle

IMO the best thing the Giants have on offense is deep speed at WR. No one in this class would take better advantage of it than Penix.
His other high end trait is his release is lightening fast.
RE: RE: Mike in NY  
BleedBlue46 : 2/13/2024 6:12 pm : link
In comment 16398083 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16398065 Manhattan said:


Quote:


one more note. I get that it's weird to comp a QB to the greatest player of the generation and maybe the greatest player of all time. You'll likely never lose money betting against a prospect becoming as good as the greatest player of all time. But I don't think that's what the comps are saying.

Williams *looks* like Mahomes when he plays, and nobody else does. That's why it is a useful comp. It doesn't mean he will become as good as PM or that he will even be a top-10 QB. But he has strong aspects of his game that resemble Mahomes, how he manipulates the pocket and creates time, how he delivers the ball with power as he goes to second and third reads. He looks a lot like Patrick. It's exciting. But it doesn't mean folks are saying he is Mahomes. He's not. There will be big differences in the NFL. He'll do some things less well, but he might do other things better. But we all talk about how we want a Mahomes, and here is a guy who has some similar traits. He is the only QB with any chance to play with Mahomes' creativity, and all some folks want to do is knock him down. Why? I bet many of these same folks were Mahomes doubters in 2017. I'm with you, I know he won't be as good, but I'd move heaven and earth to get him on my team, including 3 first round picks. I think the chance is worth it.

By the way the Kyler Murray comp for CW isn't bad in my opinion, but he is bigger, stronger, and does every aspect of pocket passing, better than Kyler, including having top-5 elite arm talent/strength. Add those qualities to Kyler's profile and you have a hell of a QB.



Williams looks like Mahomes because he tries to turn everything into a highlight play rather than going through progressions, using proper fundamentals, etc. That works to an extent in college, but not so much in the pros. What makes Mahomes great is that he has a counter for everything you throw at him. I don't see that with CW.


Mahomes' mental game is up there with the best to ever do it. That is the biggest factor for him being in GOAT discussions: how is mind operates. He's up there with the Mannings in his understanding of x's and o's while the quickness with which his mind processes the field in real time while under duress is up there with the best of all time, then add in the fact that he has a switch he turns on in the big moments where he goes to different level mentally from great to up around all time great level. That is the biggest facet of Mahomes game reaching GOAT conversations.

I don't think CW will ever be close to that level mentally, Mahomes is in a different universe mentally. The comparisons are silly media hype machine anecdotes.
RE: RE: Mike in NY  
BBLXIX : 2/14/2024 4:18 am : link
In comment 16398083 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16398065 Manhattan said:


Quote:


one more note. I get that it's weird to comp a QB to the greatest player of the generation and maybe the greatest player of all time. You'll likely never lose money betting against a prospect becoming as good as the greatest player of all time. But I don't think that's what the comps are saying.

Williams *looks* like Mahomes when he plays, and nobody else does. That's why it is a useful comp. It doesn't mean he will become as good as PM or that he will even be a top-10 QB. But he has strong aspects of his game that resemble Mahomes, how he manipulates the pocket and creates time, how he delivers the ball with power as he goes to second and third reads. He looks a lot like Patrick. It's exciting. But it doesn't mean folks are saying he is Mahomes. He's not. There will be big differences in the NFL. He'll do some things less well, but he might do other things better. But we all talk about how we want a Mahomes, and here is a guy who has some similar traits. He is the only QB with any chance to play with Mahomes' creativity, and all some folks want to do is knock him down. Why? I bet many of these same folks were Mahomes doubters in 2017. I'm with you, I know he won't be as good, but I'd move heaven and earth to get him on my team, including 3 first round picks. I think the chance is worth it.

By the way the Kyler Murray comp for CW isn't bad in my opinion, but he is bigger, stronger, and does every aspect of pocket passing, better than Kyler, including having top-5 elite arm talent/strength. Add those qualities to Kyler's profile and you have a hell of a QB.



Williams looks like Mahomes because he tries to turn everything into a highlight play rather than going through progressions, using proper fundamentals, etc. That works to an extent in college, but not so much in the pros. What makes Mahomes great is that he has a counter for everything you throw at him. I don't see that with CW.


He frequently goes through his reads getting to the 2nd or 3rd guy. It's all over the film. The idea that he's just some 1 read and run dude freewheeling constantly looking for highlights every play is just incorrect. He can progress his reads a little slow, get stuck on a guy at times, or turn down the easier read for the bigger play, but it's not out of the feeling that he isn't understanding what's going on.

All you're looking for is the signs, and there's nothing to suggest he won't be able to do the mundane QB thinga (fundamentals) on the next level. He has a VERY high feel and IQ for the game. It'll be up to some team (Likely the Bears) to cut back on the bad, and nurture his abilities, but all of it is there in spades. The Mahomes playstyle comparison is accurate, although I would say moreso similar styles, but different flavors. What gets lost in the shuffle is that Williams is a legit threat to gash you in the running game and will step into the league with elite rushing ability for his position.
RE: RE: RE: Mike in NY  
Mike in NY : 2/14/2024 6:26 am : link
In comment 16398534 BBLXIX said:
Quote:
In comment 16398083 Mike in NY said:


Quote:


In comment 16398065 Manhattan said:


Quote:


one more note. I get that it's weird to comp a QB to the greatest player of the generation and maybe the greatest player of all time. You'll likely never lose money betting against a prospect becoming as good as the greatest player of all time. But I don't think that's what the comps are saying.

Williams *looks* like Mahomes when he plays, and nobody else does. That's why it is a useful comp. It doesn't mean he will become as good as PM or that he will even be a top-10 QB. But he has strong aspects of his game that resemble Mahomes, how he manipulates the pocket and creates time, how he delivers the ball with power as he goes to second and third reads. He looks a lot like Patrick. It's exciting. But it doesn't mean folks are saying he is Mahomes. He's not. There will be big differences in the NFL. He'll do some things less well, but he might do other things better. But we all talk about how we want a Mahomes, and here is a guy who has some similar traits. He is the only QB with any chance to play with Mahomes' creativity, and all some folks want to do is knock him down. Why? I bet many of these same folks were Mahomes doubters in 2017. I'm with you, I know he won't be as good, but I'd move heaven and earth to get him on my team, including 3 first round picks. I think the chance is worth it.

By the way the Kyler Murray comp for CW isn't bad in my opinion, but he is bigger, stronger, and does every aspect of pocket passing, better than Kyler, including having top-5 elite arm talent/strength. Add those qualities to Kyler's profile and you have a hell of a QB.



Williams looks like Mahomes because he tries to turn everything into a highlight play rather than going through progressions, using proper fundamentals, etc. That works to an extent in college, but not so much in the pros. What makes Mahomes great is that he has a counter for everything you throw at him. I don't see that with CW.



He frequently goes through his reads getting to the 2nd or 3rd guy. It's all over the film. The idea that he's just some 1 read and run dude freewheeling constantly looking for highlights every play is just incorrect. He can progress his reads a little slow, get stuck on a guy at times, or turn down the easier read for the bigger play, but it's not out of the feeling that he isn't understanding what's going on.

All you're looking for is the signs, and there's nothing to suggest he won't be able to do the mundane QB thinga (fundamentals) on the next level. He has a VERY high feel and IQ for the game. It'll be up to some team (Likely the Bears) to cut back on the bad, and nurture his abilities, but all of it is there in spades. The Mahomes playstyle comparison is accurate, although I would say moreso similar styles, but different flavors. What gets lost in the shuffle is that Williams is a legit threat to gash you in the running game and will step into the league with elite rushing ability for his position.


What makes him more than a smaller Justin Fields, whose tenure at Ohio State was arguably more productive than anything CW produced?
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