I just think you're wrong. These aren't career threatening injuries, and I don't think they will weigh heavily enough in their decision making to make them give up on him.
I've posted this question before, if Joe Burrow suffered the same two injuries Jones did this season, do you think the Bengals would be contemplating replacing him? Of course not. A torn ACL and a neck injury that cost a player a few games aren't cause to be deeply concerned.
Schoen is going to evaluate whether he believes he has enough information to give up on Jones. And I don't believe he has enough on-the-field information to say that.
But, Jones got nowhere near the contract that Burrow got.
I also don't think it's giving up on Jones necessarily, it's an opportunity to bring in a QB with a top 10 pick in a class which is expected to be better than 2025 (many people ignore this). When has Schoen had a prime opportunity to draft a QB high?
2022: two top 10 picks in a weak QB draft. There is little doubt Schoen would have pounced here if the QB prospects met the value.
2023: 25th pick in the draft
Logic would say this is the opportunity to draft a QB. All the noise and reports indicate they will too.
It still doesn't mean they are "giving up" on Jones. He could still start or be a viable backup.
Put yourself in Schoen's shoes: you did the medical diligence before the contract and there was no cause for concern, and you believed in the player enough to guarantee him 82M.
Would the variety of injuries be suffered + his play over the 6 games be enough to convince you unequivocally Jones is not the guy you thought he could be?
Put yourself in Schoen's shoes: you did the medical diligence before the contract and there was no cause for concern, and you believed in the player enough to guarantee him 82M.
Would the variety of injuries be suffered + his play over the 6 games be enough to convince you unequivocally Jones is not the guy you thought he could be?
who said "unequivocally" is the standard? in fact didnt schoen himself comment that jones could have a setback and they have to consider that?
other than tabloid stupidity, which will be as rampant as it already is no matter what, what is harmed by giving themselves a jones-alternative? if jones plays great and wins he can keep the job as long as they want him. if jimmy g held off lance/purdy he'd have played in the SB.
starting from jones is also the wrong way of looking at the decision. the last 2 drafts set up as poorly as could be fore nyg to consider a qb (which was likely a part of their calculus in extending jones last year, they liked him enough to commit to hedging 2 years with him).
conversely this is a really good qb draft and they have a high pick. there may be a guy they simply have a really high grade on in reach for the first time. with no guarantee of it happening again any time soon. i doubt they force a pick but if there is a guy they like a lot whose rights they can control for 2 years beyond jones (plus tags) it would be beyond moronic to pass.
QB planning is not a year to year thing. jones' injury is the perfect excuse to get 2 shots instead of 1. if there's even a 1% chance they think they may move on from jones in 2025 they would be moronic to not add an alternative in the draft this year if they get the chance.
like i said above if your offering odds im taking the bet they arent that stupid to pass, and im 99% sure the biggest risk is the guys they like get taken ahead of them.
Put yourself in Schoen's shoes: you did the medical diligence before the contract and there was no cause for concern, and you believed in the player enough to guarantee him 82M.
Would the variety of injuries be suffered + his play over the 6 games be enough to convince you unequivocally Jones is not the guy you thought he could be?
A good GM would evaluate the QB draft prospects and compare them to Jones. I don't think it matters whether Jones can still be the guy he thought or not. Schoen has an opportunity to draft a high level QB prospect at the top of the draft. A good GM looks beyond 2024 and compares the situation he's in now vs what the QB landscape looks like next year.
I've seen the Jones contract referred to as a tier 3 QB contract and also the biggest contract in team history. It depends on what perspective you look at it from.
I guess I just have a higher expectation from Schoen than a lot here. I don't think he'll double down on the Jones contract when he negotiated hard for an out after 2024.
Lastly, it's a 6 QB draft at this point. (Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix & Penix). If you are predicting a 2nd round QB, it's most likely going to be one of these 6. And it seems like the rankings with these 6 are all over the board. So, I think the QB controversy will still be present even if it's a 2nd round pick.
Lastly, it's a 6 QB draft at this point. (Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix & Penix). If you are predicting a 2nd round QB, it's most likely going to be one of these 6. And it seems like the rankings with these 6 are all over the board. So, I think the QB controversy will still be present even if it's a 2nd round pick.
bingo. the 2nd round qb is the girl still at the bar at closing time. the chances something good comes from it are heavily against.
the only thing i disagree with in your post is re schoen, this is a daboll decision and without predicting who, my guess is they end up with only 2 or 3 of the 6 you mentioned they like enough to pick at #6. and whoever they like will probably be determined in their time together the next few months as whatever is on their tape. the tape gets them in the conversation now, their direct interactions determine whether or not they will pick them.
A good GM would evaluate the QB draft prospects and compare them to Jones. I don't think it matters whether Jones can still be the guy he thought or not. Schoen has an opportunity to draft a high level QB prospect at the top of the draft. A good GM looks beyond 2024 and compares the situation he's in now vs what the QB landscape looks like next year.
I've seen the Jones contract referred to as a tier 3 QB contract and also the biggest contract in team history. It depends on what perspective you look at it from.
I guess I just have a higher expectation from Schoen than a lot here. I don't think he'll double down on the Jones contract when he negotiated hard for an out after 2024.
Lastly, it's a 6 QB draft at this point. (Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix & Penix). If you are predicting a 2nd round QB, it's most likely going to be one of these 6. And it seems like the rankings with these 6 are all over the board. So, I think the QB controversy will still be present even if it's a 2nd round pick.
I don't disagree at all with the logic in anything you've posted. I think you know what I *want* Schoen to do -- I want him to make a bold move up and pick one of the top QBs.
What I'm trying to guess is what Schoen *will* do.
My guess is Schoen really likes and believes in Jones. He challenged Jones to prove him wrong when he declined the 5th year option, and Jones did that. He rewarded Jones for that. Schoen had the means to play hardball with either the franchise or transition tag, but he negotiated a fair deal (that was both the biggest in team history and a few notches below the top guys).
Said in another way, I think Jones is his guy, and I don't think Schoen is looking to replace him. I think Schoen wants Jones to come back strong.
One area I disagree -- I don't think a 2nd round pick will create controversy in the same way a top 10 pick would.
I think that's reasonable, but all I'll say is I think you are underestimating the fan sentiment towards Jones right now. The temperature is high and I'd expect minimal patience.
Said in another way, I think Jones is his guy, and I don't think Schoen is looking to replace him. I think Schoen wants Jones to come back strong.
One area I disagree -- I don't think a 2nd round pick will create controversy in the same way a top 10 pick would.
As you know, we are in lockstep with Schoen.
But he's definitely at a fork in the road in his maiden voyage as GM. Does he go right and double down on his first big contract call as a GM and stick with Jones? Or does he go left and show real leadership flexibility by identifying a mistake right away and beginning the process to fix it?
While most might think going with a rookie is riskier, I see it the other way with Jones. You are hoping a player in his 6th year can finally show he is that guy you can trust to compete for SBs. I mean, just think how absurd that is - his sixth year??
If this was any other situation around the league where another team was giving Jones a sixth try, I feel very comfortable saying this board would be unanimous in finding that situation idiotic and laughable.
Said in another way, I think Jones is his guy, and I don't think Schoen is looking to replace him. I think Schoen wants Jones to come back strong.
One area I disagree -- I don't think a 2nd round pick will create controversy in the same way a top 10 pick would.
As you know, we are in lockstep with Schoen.
But he's definitely at a fork in the road in his maiden voyage as GM. Does he go right and double down on his first big contract call as a GM and stick with Jones? Or does he go left and show real leadership flexibility by identifying a mistake right away and beginning the process to fix it?
While most might think going with a rookie is riskier, I see it the other way with Jones. You are hoping a player in his 6th year can finally show he is that guy you can trust to compete for SBs. I mean, just think how absurd that is - his sixth year??
If this was any other situation around the league where another team was giving Jones a sixth try, I feel very comfortable saying this board would be unanimous in finding that situation idiotic and laughable.
The fact that it's basically a 2 year deal that Schoen gave Jones gives me hope that he not only understands the importance of drafting a top qb, but maybe even had it in his mind as a potential plan if things didn't go well.
The fact that it's basically a 2 year deal that Schoen gave Jones gives me hope that he not only understands the importance of drafting a top qb, but maybe even had it in his mind as a potential plan if things didn't go well.
A lot of speculation about which direction this will go is about a month away.
Because there is a 45-day window when Schoen will have no choice but to turn over his cards.
The start of free agency (March 13) to the end of the draft (April 27th).
signing a vet doesn't indicate anything, unless it is a top tier FA, which is unlikely.
Picking a QB in second round is most likely with an eye to be a starter. With so many needs on the team, 2nd round is too high to be picking a backup, especially if we sign a backup quality vet (as opposed to camp arm).
The entire team was playing like shit in the games DJ played. I missed the second half AZ comeback, but presumably DJ got the job done. IF they liked DJ enough to sign him, they aren't giving up on him after 6 games. But, between a poor showing, and injury history, I'd be shocked if QB is not a consideration IF there's a good prospect available when we pick. A likely thought process is that they may not feel desperate to take a QB, but will consider it if one is available.
Was critical to the long-term viability of his contract, and therefore it would not be some surprising about-face for Schoen to pivot now.
I don't disagree that Schoen likes Jones, but economics simply rule the roost. Jones' cap hits for year 2, 3, and 4 are large, with year 4 being so ridiculously large ($58 mil) that there was no chance they wouldn't restructure at some point.
You know which cap hit wasn't large? Year 1. Meaning that this was Jones' chance to either elevate his game to top-10 and earn an immediate restructure to lower his $47 million 2024 cap hit with extra years, or he could he maintain his above-average (but not top-ten) level from 2022 and the team would roll the dice with him and his $47 million hit in 2024 and restructure Dex and Thomas to help build the team aroud good, but not great QB play.
This is why Schoen mentioned the 'accelerated timeline' in his end-of-year press conference. Jones really had to play well and stay healthy this past season to justify reinvestment in his contract. Now he's put the team in a rock-and-a-hard place. What if he rebounds in 2024 and plays on his 2022 level, but is only healthy for 10 games? You are then faced with a $40 million dollar cap hit for 2025, cutting him and eating $22 million, or restructuring his contract and guaranteeing extra years of him on the roster despite totally inconsistent play and health.
This is why Simms and Banks' comments of "support" were overblown, because both them implied that Jones had to turn around his play immediately or he would be gone fast. The contract was a 2-year test where Jones really needed to pass the first year test, so the Giant will now hedge, and Jones will need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to justify being on the roster after 2024.
I've posted this question before, if Joe Burrow suffered the same two injuries Jones did this season, do you think the Bengals would be contemplating replacing him? Of course not. A torn ACL and a neck injury that cost a player a few games aren't cause to be deeply concerned.
Schoen is going to evaluate whether he believes he has enough information to give up on Jones. And I don't believe he has enough on-the-field information to say that.
But, Jones got nowhere near the contract that Burrow got.
I also don't think it's giving up on Jones necessarily, it's an opportunity to bring in a QB with a top 10 pick in a class which is expected to be better than 2025 (many people ignore this). When has Schoen had a prime opportunity to draft a QB high?
2022: two top 10 picks in a weak QB draft. There is little doubt Schoen would have pounced here if the QB prospects met the value.
2023: 25th pick in the draft
Logic would say this is the opportunity to draft a QB. All the noise and reports indicate they will too.
It still doesn't mean they are "giving up" on Jones. He could still start or be a viable backup.
Put yourself in Schoen's shoes: you did the medical diligence before the contract and there was no cause for concern, and you believed in the player enough to guarantee him 82M.
Would the variety of injuries be suffered + his play over the 6 games be enough to convince you unequivocally Jones is not the guy you thought he could be?
Put yourself in Schoen's shoes: you did the medical diligence before the contract and there was no cause for concern, and you believed in the player enough to guarantee him 82M.
Would the variety of injuries be suffered + his play over the 6 games be enough to convince you unequivocally Jones is not the guy you thought he could be?
who said "unequivocally" is the standard? in fact didnt schoen himself comment that jones could have a setback and they have to consider that?
other than tabloid stupidity, which will be as rampant as it already is no matter what, what is harmed by giving themselves a jones-alternative? if jones plays great and wins he can keep the job as long as they want him. if jimmy g held off lance/purdy he'd have played in the SB.
starting from jones is also the wrong way of looking at the decision. the last 2 drafts set up as poorly as could be fore nyg to consider a qb (which was likely a part of their calculus in extending jones last year, they liked him enough to commit to hedging 2 years with him).
conversely this is a really good qb draft and they have a high pick. there may be a guy they simply have a really high grade on in reach for the first time. with no guarantee of it happening again any time soon. i doubt they force a pick but if there is a guy they like a lot whose rights they can control for 2 years beyond jones (plus tags) it would be beyond moronic to pass.
QB planning is not a year to year thing. jones' injury is the perfect excuse to get 2 shots instead of 1. if there's even a 1% chance they think they may move on from jones in 2025 they would be moronic to not add an alternative in the draft this year if they get the chance.
like i said above if your offering odds im taking the bet they arent that stupid to pass, and im 99% sure the biggest risk is the guys they like get taken ahead of them.
Put yourself in Schoen's shoes: you did the medical diligence before the contract and there was no cause for concern, and you believed in the player enough to guarantee him 82M.
Would the variety of injuries be suffered + his play over the 6 games be enough to convince you unequivocally Jones is not the guy you thought he could be?
A good GM would evaluate the QB draft prospects and compare them to Jones. I don't think it matters whether Jones can still be the guy he thought or not. Schoen has an opportunity to draft a high level QB prospect at the top of the draft. A good GM looks beyond 2024 and compares the situation he's in now vs what the QB landscape looks like next year.
I've seen the Jones contract referred to as a tier 3 QB contract and also the biggest contract in team history. It depends on what perspective you look at it from.
I guess I just have a higher expectation from Schoen than a lot here. I don't think he'll double down on the Jones contract when he negotiated hard for an out after 2024.
Lastly, it's a 6 QB draft at this point. (Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix & Penix). If you are predicting a 2nd round QB, it's most likely going to be one of these 6. And it seems like the rankings with these 6 are all over the board. So, I think the QB controversy will still be present even if it's a 2nd round pick.
Lastly, it's a 6 QB draft at this point. (Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix & Penix). If you are predicting a 2nd round QB, it's most likely going to be one of these 6. And it seems like the rankings with these 6 are all over the board. So, I think the QB controversy will still be present even if it's a 2nd round pick.
bingo. the 2nd round qb is the girl still at the bar at closing time. the chances something good comes from it are heavily against.
the only thing i disagree with in your post is re schoen, this is a daboll decision and without predicting who, my guess is they end up with only 2 or 3 of the 6 you mentioned they like enough to pick at #6. and whoever they like will probably be determined in their time together the next few months as whatever is on their tape. the tape gets them in the conversation now, their direct interactions determine whether or not they will pick them.
I've seen the Jones contract referred to as a tier 3 QB contract and also the biggest contract in team history. It depends on what perspective you look at it from.
I guess I just have a higher expectation from Schoen than a lot here. I don't think he'll double down on the Jones contract when he negotiated hard for an out after 2024.
Lastly, it's a 6 QB draft at this point. (Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix & Penix). If you are predicting a 2nd round QB, it's most likely going to be one of these 6. And it seems like the rankings with these 6 are all over the board. So, I think the QB controversy will still be present even if it's a 2nd round pick.
I don't disagree at all with the logic in anything you've posted. I think you know what I *want* Schoen to do -- I want him to make a bold move up and pick one of the top QBs.
What I'm trying to guess is what Schoen *will* do.
My guess is Schoen really likes and believes in Jones. He challenged Jones to prove him wrong when he declined the 5th year option, and Jones did that. He rewarded Jones for that. Schoen had the means to play hardball with either the franchise or transition tag, but he negotiated a fair deal (that was both the biggest in team history and a few notches below the top guys).
Said in another way, I think Jones is his guy, and I don't think Schoen is looking to replace him. I think Schoen wants Jones to come back strong.
One area I disagree -- I don't think a 2nd round pick will create controversy in the same way a top 10 pick would.
Said in another way, I think Jones is his guy, and I don't think Schoen is looking to replace him. I think Schoen wants Jones to come back strong.
One area I disagree -- I don't think a 2nd round pick will create controversy in the same way a top 10 pick would.
As you know, we are in lockstep with Schoen.
But he's definitely at a fork in the road in his maiden voyage as GM. Does he go right and double down on his first big contract call as a GM and stick with Jones? Or does he go left and show real leadership flexibility by identifying a mistake right away and beginning the process to fix it?
While most might think going with a rookie is riskier, I see it the other way with Jones. You are hoping a player in his 6th year can finally show he is that guy you can trust to compete for SBs. I mean, just think how absurd that is - his sixth year??
If this was any other situation around the league where another team was giving Jones a sixth try, I feel very comfortable saying this board would be unanimous in finding that situation idiotic and laughable.
Quote:
Said in another way, I think Jones is his guy, and I don't think Schoen is looking to replace him. I think Schoen wants Jones to come back strong.
One area I disagree -- I don't think a 2nd round pick will create controversy in the same way a top 10 pick would.
As you know, we are in lockstep with Schoen.
But he's definitely at a fork in the road in his maiden voyage as GM. Does he go right and double down on his first big contract call as a GM and stick with Jones? Or does he go left and show real leadership flexibility by identifying a mistake right away and beginning the process to fix it?
While most might think going with a rookie is riskier, I see it the other way with Jones. You are hoping a player in his 6th year can finally show he is that guy you can trust to compete for SBs. I mean, just think how absurd that is - his sixth year??
If this was any other situation around the league where another team was giving Jones a sixth try, I feel very comfortable saying this board would be unanimous in finding that situation idiotic and laughable.
The fact that it's basically a 2 year deal that Schoen gave Jones gives me hope that he not only understands the importance of drafting a top qb, but maybe even had it in his mind as a potential plan if things didn't go well.
The fact that it's basically a 2 year deal that Schoen gave Jones gives me hope that he not only understands the importance of drafting a top qb, but maybe even had it in his mind as a potential plan if things didn't go well.
A lot of speculation about which direction this will go is about a month away.
Because there is a 45-day window when Schoen will have no choice but to turn over his cards.
The start of free agency (March 13) to the end of the draft (April 27th).
Picking a QB in second round is most likely with an eye to be a starter. With so many needs on the team, 2nd round is too high to be picking a backup, especially if we sign a backup quality vet (as opposed to camp arm).
The entire team was playing like shit in the games DJ played. I missed the second half AZ comeback, but presumably DJ got the job done. IF they liked DJ enough to sign him, they aren't giving up on him after 6 games. But, between a poor showing, and injury history, I'd be shocked if QB is not a consideration IF there's a good prospect available when we pick. A likely thought process is that they may not feel desperate to take a QB, but will consider it if one is available.
I don't disagree that Schoen likes Jones, but economics simply rule the roost. Jones' cap hits for year 2, 3, and 4 are large, with year 4 being so ridiculously large ($58 mil) that there was no chance they wouldn't restructure at some point.
You know which cap hit wasn't large? Year 1. Meaning that this was Jones' chance to either elevate his game to top-10 and earn an immediate restructure to lower his $47 million 2024 cap hit with extra years, or he could he maintain his above-average (but not top-ten) level from 2022 and the team would roll the dice with him and his $47 million hit in 2024 and restructure Dex and Thomas to help build the team aroud good, but not great QB play.
This is why Schoen mentioned the 'accelerated timeline' in his end-of-year press conference. Jones really had to play well and stay healthy this past season to justify reinvestment in his contract. Now he's put the team in a rock-and-a-hard place. What if he rebounds in 2024 and plays on his 2022 level, but is only healthy for 10 games? You are then faced with a $40 million dollar cap hit for 2025, cutting him and eating $22 million, or restructuring his contract and guaranteeing extra years of him on the roster despite totally inconsistent play and health.
This is why Simms and Banks' comments of "support" were overblown, because both them implied that Jones had to turn around his play immediately or he would be gone fast. The contract was a 2-year test where Jones really needed to pass the first year test, so the Giant will now hedge, and Jones will need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to justify being on the roster after 2024.