I published this in a reply to a thread but I thought it made sense for a post:
I've seen a number posts from people I greatly respect around here saying that Joe Schoen would not pivot away from Jones based on only six games after signing him for a 4-year, $160 million contract.
However, I think the contract was structured so that Jones had to perform and stay healthy right out the gate:
Jones' cap hits for year 2, 3, and 4 are large, with year 4 being so ridiculously large ($58 mil) that there was no chance they wouldn't restructure at some point.
You know which cap hit wasn't large? Year 1. Meaning that this was Jones' chance to either elevate his game to top-10 and earn an immediate restructure to lower his $47 million 2024 cap hit with extra years, or he could he maintain his above-average (but not top-ten) level from 2022 and the team would roll the dice with him and his $47 million hit in 2024 and restructure Dex and Thomas to help build the team aroud good, but not great QB play.
This is why Schoen mentioned the 'accelerated timeline' in his end-of-year press conference. Jones really had to play well and stay healthy this past season to justify reinvestment in his contract. Now he's put the team in a rock-and-a-hard place. What if he rebounds in 2024 and plays on his 2022 level, but is only healthy for 10 games? You are then faced with a $40 million dollar cap hit for 2025, cutting him and eating the $22 million, or restructuring his contract and guaranteeing extra years of him on the roster despite totally inconsistent play and health.
This is also why Simms and Banks' comments of "support" were overblown, because both them implied that Jones had to turn around his play immediately or he would be gone fast. The contract was a 2-year test where Jones really needed to pass the first year test, so the Giant will now hedge, and Jones will need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to justify being on the roster after 2024.
In Schoen, he did not have very many good choices with respect to QB. We drafted to late to get a high ranked QB plus Jones had a promising year in 2022. If he franchised Jones, he loses the money needed to sign free agents plus maybe Barkley. If he lets Jones go to free agency and he signs elsewhere, Schoen would have been crucified in the press and here. The same thing would have happened if Schoen did a rebuild in year 2. He did not have good choices because of 2022 success.
And don't forget the contract was restructured before he ever played a down when Schoen needed money. The 'low' (it was still 15 mil) year one cap hit was more indicative of Giants desire to spend in FA, and resulting inability to pay DJ closer to the annual value, than some master plan to restructure 2 years in a row.
IF DJ proved himself, any restructure was going to raise the AAV. Sure, the cap hit could have been pushed down the road, but it would come at a cost.
He got a middle of the road contract, and was viewed as a middle of the road QB. Schoen structured it so that after 2 years, the Giants could dump DJ if DJ wasn't showing to be good enough.
It's true that most contracts accelerate over time, but the Jones' contract is unique in that it accelerates rapidly in year 2 and stays at that level for the next 3 years, while the dead cap hit lowers significantly after year 2.
Compare with the Burrow and Hurts contracts, which rise very gradually in cap hit amount over 5 years, while the dead hits are basically astronomical until the 5th year. The point being: those guys aren't in "restructure or cut" mode until year 4 or 5, and honestly I'd be a little nervous about both due to health (Burrow) and performance (Hurts).
Jones, on the other hand, has a "restructure or cut" juncture after year two. I guess the Giants COULD theoretically live with his $41 million cap hit in 2025 because basically nobody from their 2021 draft class is worth re-signing.
If 2023 went well, he then could have tagged Barkley again and restructured Jones.
They weren't moving off either Jones or Barkley after last year. Right or wrong, that played into it.
I think by your own admission, Schoen wanted Barkley over Jones - “he wanted to sign Barkley to save the tag for Jones”, ie, he didn’t want to commit to Jones for more than a year. This past season would have been a prove it year, but he played hardball with SB and lost.
Tagging him, and therefore not having to deal with his contract anymore, would have been worth not signing any of those players.
So, you are under the impression that Schoen is comfortable with Jones in 2025 at a $41.6M cap hit? Because imo that's what he would be committing too.
I don't see that as inevitable at all. Say a player like Nix sees his value through the draft process fall, and the Giants pick him at 39.
I don't think a player picked at 39 is an existential immediate threat to Jones. There will certainly be appetite if Jones falters, but not the immediate pressure a top 10 picks brings.
If Jones doesn't play well, and Nix comes in at the end of the year and shines, they part ways with Jones.
If neither plays particularly well, they part ways with Jones and take another swing at QB.
If Jones succeeds, they keep him, and have a pretty cost controlled backup.
It will be the strongest draft investment they've made to QB since 2019 and third strongest since 2000 behind Eli & Jones. I think it'll be significant.
And yes, I agree Jones will have every opportunity to play again in 2024, but he'll have one of those 6 mentioned above behind him and another veteran as well.
It will be the strongest draft investment they've made to QB since 2019 and third strongest since 2000 behind Eli & Jones. I think it'll be significant.
And yes, I agree Jones will have every opportunity to play again in 2024, but he'll have one of those 6 mentioned above behind him and another veteran as well.
Well.. if it's Williams, Daniels, or Maye, Jones is not the starter anymore. He might, probably not but mught, get to start a few games, as the rookie prepares to take over, but the die will be cast, and whenever the rookie is ready, he takes over. It makes absolutely no sense to wait. He future will be Jayden Daniels (let's say) and the sooner he's starting the sooner the next Giants era arrives. If it's one of the other three, picked after the first, I could see a slower transition - maybe.
You can't wait until everything is just right to get your qb
In what I believe is the very unlikely event the Giants pick a QB on round one, I think he's the day one starter and they never look back. This is my preferred outcome.
What I believe will happen is the Giants pick someone in the 2nd round or later, and the Giants give Jones every opportunity to remain the starter.
Schoen didn't dip his toes in the water with Jones, he at least submerged a leg. I don't think that type of commitment is casually rewound.
You’re ignoring Jones’ contribution to bad OL performance. Jones is a roadblock to improving a poor unit.
This is not true. They spent more than the franchise tag on him in 2023. What year they recognize that hit in does not matter. You just move other people's money around. They would have saved $7MM from last year alone by doing that. They would also be $40MM ahead this year. They would, however, have lost Barkley or broken in negotiation and signed him to a higher team unfriednly deal.
they knew they were picking #25.
Carolina traded up to #1 March 10th, so 1 QB was off the board.
Houston had 2 + 12 so it was likely they were taking a QB somewhere.
So the chances of drafting a preferred QB in 2023 were really low and preferring jones to any FA QB was pretty obvious.
If things went well on the field in 2023 obviously that would mean things probably went well for Jones.
If things didn't go well this was a predictable situation. Teams that end up in the top 10 of the draft dont typically get there thanks to good qb play. The depth of the QB position in this draft wasn't known last year but Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were. The worse things went on the field the better their chances at either of them.
Jones is again entering a prove it year and the Giants have a high enough pick to consider QBs in a good QB draft. The way things went wasn't their plan A, B, or probably even C, but they likely understood this as a potential scenario to end up in when they made the contract.
This is it exactly. The contract they got with DJ was actually quite good in most respects - i.e. two year out, amt of guarantees, etc. It was higher than most expected but that difference is maybe $10 - $15MM. A lot, but not a very big number in QB world.
People really dont understand how the franchise works. That money comes immediately off the cap. It limits you from doing other things.
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would have likely meant not signing Okereke, Robinson, and Nacho. Nothing is free, even in hindsight.
This is not true. They spent more than the franchise tag on him in 2023. What year they recognize that hit in does not matter. You just move other people's money around. They would have saved $7MM from last year alone by doing that. They would also be $40MM ahead this year. They would, however, have lost Barkley or broken in negotiation and signed him to a higher team unfriednly deal.
They restructured his deal so the cap hit was 15.435 million in the first year. We would have had 17 million less to spend if it was a franchise tag. That's where the dead money of 22.5 million comes into play, because he only got 15.435 million of his 80 million guaranteed in the first year. This year is 47 million plus last years 15.435 leaves an extra 22.5 million in dead cap. It was a deal made to have extra cap to reinforce the team and give DJ a chance to prove himself in year 1 which would have led to a restructure and or extension. He didn't show his worth so we have an out after this year without taking any cap hit in 2025: a fresh, clean slate. Schoen devised this contract tactfully to appease Mara and give DJ a chance to prove himself worthy while having an out after 2 years to move on with a lot of extra cap and a rookie qb if things went south as they did this year. It is a perfect deal to have a promising rookie qb drafted this year. The rookie can sit and learn until he is ready and go into 2025 with some legit FA signings to take it to the next level. We will have a lot of extra cap room for the roster outside of QB for 4 years starting in 2025 with the promising rookie qb. I think it was an underrated contract, sure it would have been better to let DJ test the market but maybe Mara really didn't want to play hardball with his golden boy so this was Schoen's (and the team's) best option. We will see if Schoen was really planning ahead with this contract if he drafts one of the top 4 qbs in rd1, then we will know DJ will be traded or cut before 2025.
JJ won't last until then, Pennix might but he will require a solid o line and I don't think he's a fit for us because who knows how long that will take. Nix simply isn't a qb I would like in any way, he might be like a plus DJ but that isn't going to move the needle enough. Thus, trading up into the back half of rd1 for a qb won't be a good option for us imo.
Jones eventually had a ~15M cap charge on 2023. To incur the franchise tender the Giants needed an additional ~17M.
That means the Giants would have pushed 17M from 2023 contracts into the future, probably into 2024 and 2025. They could have achieved that with Leonard Williams and Adoree Jackson.
On it's face that scares fans because that means creating dead money. But keep in mind the Giants guaranteed 82M to Jones -- 15M(ended up 13 because he didn't hit his incentives), 47M and 22M from 2023-2025.
Said in another way, they would have paid him 50M less, which would have easily made room for the 17M they needed to push forward.
Jones eventually had a ~15M cap charge on 2023. To incur the franchise tender the Giants needed an additional ~17M.
That means the Giants would have pushed 17M from 2023 contracts into the future, probably into 2024 and 2025. They could have achieved that with Leonard Williams and Adoree Jackson.
On it's face that scares fans because that means creating dead money. But keep in mind the Giants guaranteed 82M to Jones -- 15M(ended up 13 because he didn't hit his incentives), 47M and 22M from 2023-2025.
Said in another way, they would have paid him 50M less, which would have easily made room for the 17M they needed to push forward.
Maybe Schoen knew he didn't want to keep Adoree and wanted to trade Leonard Williams or not resign him already? I think we all underestimate how smart Schoen just might be. If we get the right qb and play our hands right we could be contending in 2025 with a lot of extra cap room to build the team around a rookie qb drafted this year. That would fit right in line with the 3 year plan Schoen mentioned to get us back on track. Resteucturing players you don't have in your long term plans is very unhelpful in a rebuild. Adoree and Lenny stuck on the team right now wouldn't be that much less than DJ on the team right now. I also believe Mara didn't want to FT DJ. I have faith in Schoen's plan, but all that faith goes out the window if we don't draft one of the top 4 qbs in rd1 this year.
They both had 1 year left on their deals so correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that have been the same cap hit without an extension to put money into the future? Converting salary to bonus on a one year deal does nothing to cap?
If you look at the variables across the 3-year period Jones currently had/has cap charges on this contract, the unequivocal better option was move salary that was already going to be paid to Williams and Jackson out.
That would have saved the Giants a net 50M.
If you look at the variables across the 3-year period Jones currently had/has cap charges on this contract, the unequivocal better option was move salary that was already going to be paid to Williams and Jackson out.
That would have saved the Giants a net 50M.
Agreed but I think Mara strongly encouraged a contract for DJ vs a FT. And I also don't think you could have moved the base salaries for Adoree and Lenny without a restructure extension. Converting salary to bonus with players that have 1 year left on their deals wouldn't change the cap
If you look at the variables across the 3-year period Jones currently had/has cap charges on this contract, the unequivocal better option was move salary that was already going to be paid to Williams and Jackson out.
That would have saved the Giants a net 50M.
Without the contract for Jones I don't think we could have signed any free agents basically. We had no one left to restructure without extending and restructuring players we didn't have in the long term plans.
Yes, that money would have counted as dead money when it accelerated to 2024.
But think of it in terms of a 3-year period.
From 2023-2025 would you rather pay Jones, Jackson, and Williams a total of 112M or 62M?
Yes, that money would have counted as dead money when it accelerated to 2024.
But think of it in terms of a 3-year period.
From 2023-2025 would you rather pay Jones, Jackson, and Williams a total of 112M or 62M?
I get what you're saying, the salaries for Jackson and Williams could have been converted to bonuses which would count as dead cap this year. My only thought on that is Mara strongly encouraged giving DJ a contract to follow through on his word saying they wanted him around for a long time. Sure, this was Schoen's decision and he had final word but maybe he wanted to respect the owner's opinion and give it a chance? That's my only thought, otherwise you are completely right. Then the question would be for Barkley I think he was important to Mara and the team as well. He would have had to be signed to a 2-3 year deal even if the best decision in hindsight was to let Barkley walk and tag DJ. I assume that would have made Mara mad even if it was in his own passive aggressive way.
Yes, that money would have counted as dead money when it accelerated to 2024.
But think of it in terms of a 3-year period.
From 2023-2025 would you rather pay Jones, Jackson, and Williams a total of 112M or 62M?
For the record I agree with you, tagging DJ and signing Barkley to a reasonable deal after he tested the market or letting him walk while converting Jackson and Williams' salaries to bonuses would have been in the best interest of the franchise.
Without the contract for Jones I don't think we could have signed any free agents basically. We had no one left to restructure without extending and restructuring players we didn't have in the long term plans.
That's not true.
If the Giants franchised Jones, that would have simply required moving 17M from 2023 to 2024 on the two contracts I mentioned.
That would come at huge net savings in 2024 and 2025, and they could have used that money to fill in any gaps they needed.
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Without the contract for Jones I don't think we could have signed any free agents basically. We had no one left to restructure without extending and restructuring players we didn't have in the long term plans.
That's not true.
If the Giants franchised Jones, that would have simply required moving 17M from 2023 to 2024 on the two contracts I mentioned.
That would come at huge net savings in 2024 and 2025, and they could have used that money to fill in any gaps they needed.
Yeah i see what you're saying now, I honestly didn't realize u could convert 1 year base salaries into bonuses to be dead cap for the next year.
1) Jones was always getting a multi-year deal
2) Dead money gets emotional, and makes GMs nervous when it shouldn't
And we double agree the 50M over the next two years would have helped land some good players.
Yup, for example Jackson had 11M in salary last year.
You have to pay him 1.6M in salary at his vested minimum.
So you take 9.4M and convert it to a restructure bonus and add 4 void years to his contract. So the 9.4M can be divided by 5.
His 2023 cap hit would have been 1.6 + 1.88 = 3.48, or 7.5M in cap savings.
That 7.5M would accelerate to dead money in 2024.
1) Jones was always getting a multi-year deal
2) Dead money gets emotional, and makes GMs nervous when it shouldn't
And we double agree the 50M over the next two years would have helped land some good players.
I badly wanted Josh Allen in the 2019 draft. Was furious when we took DJ instead. Imagine in another universe the Giants took Josh Allen instead of Saquon, Josh Allen instead of DJ, Nick Chubb instead of Will Hernandez. And Orlando brown Jr instead of Lorenzo Carter. Man Gettleman was so bad jfc
In Schoen, he did not have very many good choices with respect to QB. We drafted to late to get a high ranked QB plus Jones had a promising year in 2022. If he franchised Jones, he loses the money needed to sign free agents plus maybe Barkley. If he lets Jones go to free agency and he signs elsewhere, Schoen would have been crucified in the press and here. The same thing would have happened if Schoen did a rebuild in year 2. He did not have good choices because of 2022 success.
That's just it, right? A good GM takes the hit knowing it will pay off later on.
Example - Reese letting Petitgout go and saying David Diehl could play LT. He got ripped for it, but he was right.
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His biggest mistake was following up on a successful 1st season. He , and virtually everyone on BBI assumed that because they made the playoffs and won a game, that we had a team on the rise and required sort of fine tuning rather than a rebuild. The fly in the ointment for me was the Vegas win total. They recognized the team had a long way to go.
In Schoen, he did not have very many good choices with respect to QB. We drafted to late to get a high ranked QB plus Jones had a promising year in 2022. If he franchised Jones, he loses the money needed to sign free agents plus maybe Barkley. If he lets Jones go to free agency and he signs elsewhere, Schoen would have been crucified in the press and here. The same thing would have happened if Schoen did a rebuild in year 2. He did not have good choices because of 2022 success.
That's just it, right? A good GM takes the hit knowing it will pay off later on.
Example - Reese letting Petitgout go and saying David Diehl could play LT. He got ripped for it, but he was right.
It's all on the line in this draft I really think it's make or break for Schoen. Mara will let tie his own noose and he will be ran out of town if he doesn't get one of the top 4 qbs imo. It's up to Schoen ultimately. I have faith in him to make the right decision.
The concept of dead money really triggers something in fans. But it's not always a bad thing. The cap is just accounting, the real problems are the financial decisions.
Moving money you were already going to pay Jackson and Williams as an accounting maneuver. Paying Jones 82M instead of 32M, just to avoid dead money, is insanity.
The Gettleman regime was bad at it (evaluation). The Schoen regime seems to be better, but not overwhelmingly so.
Financially, Gettleman was horrible, leaving no flexibility when he 'retired'. Too soon to rate Schoen, but so far he's done a much better job.
I think it would’ve been unlikely that he would have played 2025 on his original 41.7 mil cap hit unless he maintained his 2022 form, the Giants stayed being a 9-win team, and the team needed to see one more year before restructuring.
However, in reality, Jones’ horrible 2023 means he is significantly in the hole and would really need to put up top-ten level play and stay healthy in 2024 to justify the economics of being on the roster. Schoen should hedge against this unlikely scenario.
Unfortunately, when I hear Tiki talk about ‘building the team’ first and drafting a left tackle, or Simms preaching patience, I again get nervous that the Giants are letting sentimentally (or just plain stupidity) get in the way of the understanding the realities and urgency of the contract that Jones is under. 2023 was not a mulligan year.
1) Jones was always getting a multi-year deal
2) Dead money gets emotional, and makes GMs nervous when it shouldn't
And we double agree the 50M over the next two years would have helped land some good players.
They did not accurately assess either, having swallowed the "we're back narrative whole hog, explore any alternatives, paid over market and are now stuck with a multi year contract. The out is not "cheap"- $20 million is LT Andrew Thomas money.
Bad evaluating, bad negotiating and a bad decision whose ceiling is at "average".
This was a commitment to a qb with a slight hedge - LT money is not a "cheap" out. Oh and it provided an injury guaranty for a player who had multiple injured seasons. Jones got everything his side asked for. There's a reason the contract has drawn whispers from other GM's and put smiles on the faces of players like Mineshew and Mayfield.
Schoen needs to do better- a lot better.
The contingent that likes and dislikes the original agreement misuses the term "out" as it relates to 2025.
It's not an out, it's the just the remainder of the guarantees given, on the accounting sheet.
The contract was simply bad -- the Giants should had paid Jones 32M for one year, not 82M for two.
A QB worth paying 32 mil in a year is worth (or close enough) paying 80 for 2. You don't pay either to a player you're not sure of. It would have been wrong to tag DJ for another year of evaluation. Therefore, the assumption is that Schoen and Co thought he was worth a tag or a longer contract.
Barkley is an example of correct use of a tag. They knew what they were getting, but couldn't come to terms, so they tagged with hopes of using it as leverage to get a long term deal. That didn't happen.
Under my thinking, DJ was also a correct decision, financially. They wanted both DJ and SB, but could only tag one. Apparently, SB multiple years went beyond their value dollar limit, while DJ was within their dollar value limit, so they signed him and tagged SB.
Many BBIers thought at the time either option would be a bad choice for DJ. But the voices that count thought DJ had shown enough to be worth 30-40 mil a year. IF they had been right in their evaluation, the contract would be fine. The problem is that they seem to have been wrong. In hindsight, it would have been better to have tagged DJ, but you don't run a team assuming you are making bad evaluations.
I still think Barkley was the complicating factor. He opted for QB value over RB value. The less expensive option would have been signing Barkley and franchising Jones. I think the locker room would have supported that more as well.
It reeks of Mara passive aggressively expressing his his opinions without realizing the influence that has on decision making for the pros that have dedicated their entire lives to understanding football player personnel. Just my opinion, maybe I have too much faith in Schoen. But it's up to him to realize he has to take control and not worry about the owners opinion on football matters or he will be quickly ran out of town.
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When Schoen declined the option, he pretty strongly implied he was comfortable using the franchise tender as a one-year tool. I wish he would have.
I still think Barkley was the complicating factor. He opted for QB value over RB value. The less expensive option would have been signing Barkley and franchising Jones. I think the locker room would have supported that more as well.
That doesn't reflect well on Schoen. So much consternation over a player that doesn't matter.