I published this in a reply to a thread but I thought it made sense for a post:
I've seen a number posts from people I greatly respect around here saying that Joe Schoen would not pivot away from Jones based on only six games after signing him for a 4-year, $160 million contract.
However, I think the contract was structured so that Jones had to perform and stay healthy right out the gate:
Jones' cap hits for year 2, 3, and 4 are large, with year 4 being so ridiculously large ($58 mil) that there was no chance they wouldn't restructure at some point.
You know which cap hit wasn't large? Year 1. Meaning that this was Jones' chance to either elevate his game to top-10 and earn an immediate restructure to lower his $47 million 2024 cap hit with extra years, or he could he maintain his above-average (but not top-ten) level from 2022 and the team would roll the dice with him and his $47 million hit in 2024 and restructure Dex and Thomas to help build the team aroud good, but not great QB play.
This is why Schoen mentioned the 'accelerated timeline' in his end-of-year press conference. Jones really had to play well and stay healthy this past season to justify reinvestment in his contract. Now he's put the team in a rock-and-a-hard place. What if he rebounds in 2024 and plays on his 2022 level, but is only healthy for 10 games? You are then faced with a $40 million dollar cap hit for 2025, cutting him and eating the $22 million, or restructuring his contract and guaranteeing extra years of him on the roster despite totally inconsistent play and health.
This is also why Simms and Banks' comments of "support" were overblown, because both them implied that Jones had to turn around his play immediately or he would be gone fast. The contract was a 2-year test where Jones really needed to pass the first year test, so the Giant will now hedge, and Jones will need to pull a rabbit out of his hat to justify being on the roster after 2024.
They have to pivot if they're not idiots, and even if they love Jones like it's sometimes reported. The contract is scaled in a way that demands a restructure sooner rather than later if they presumably wanted to build a contender around him. He had to earn that restructure right out of the gate, and he didn't.
The more I look at that contract, the more I realize that even the getting through the 3rd year of base salary to have the very manageable dead cap hit of $11 million was unlikely. It really feels more like a restructure after 2 years or cut ties kind of deal.
In addition, Schoen has not had the opportunity to draft a first round QB. He had awful luck in 2022 having TWO top 10 picks with no QB's to meet the value - he absolutely would have taken QB there if he could imo. He did not have the opportunity last year in 2023 either picking at 25. He has that now with a top 10 pick in a strong QB draft.
In addition, Schoen has not had the opportunity to draft a first round QB. He had awful luck in 2022 having TWO top 10 picks with no QB's to meet the value - he absolutely would have taken QB there if he could imo. He did not have the opportunity last year in 2023 either picking at 25. He has that now with a top 10 pick in a strong QB draft.
Yup, and on top of that, Schoen did make moves to give Jones weapons this offseason and upgrade the skill positions. He brought in Waller and Campbell, drafted Hyatt, retained Barkley, resigned Slayton and had Wan'Dale coming back. He also was banking on the OL he drafted developing.
As we all know, many of these moves didn't work out (though I don't think the skill areas are as bad as people like to say). Jones didn't neccesarily deserve these circumstances. but as they say, deserve's got nothing to do with it.
Schoen made a critical mistake. He may have made things more difficult for himself moving forward and I am not sure what impact it may or may not have on how he addresses the position moving forward.
He lost some momentum imv with ownership imv.
If 2023 went well, he then could have tagged Barkley again and restructured Jones.
They weren't moving off either Jones or Barkley after last year. Right or wrong, that played into it.
I hope Jones contract has nothing to do with it....other than weigh his cap vs other assets.
So your point is answered by answering question below:
Is a drafted rookie QB a marked improvement....floor or ceiling....over Jones....to attain goal....weighing adding players to defense, offense.
I assume Schoen believes he can win a Super Bowl with Jones....(why sign him if he didn't)....with a better OL....better targets....better defense..etc.
Teams do not think like fans....we tend to make it black and white....Jones out....someone else in.
Schoen made a critical mistake. He may have made things more difficult for himself moving forward and I am not sure what impact it may or may not have on how he addresses the position moving forward.
He lost some momentum imv with ownership imv.
He made a judgment to value the QB over the RB. He needed the tag for Barkley once they couldn't agree to terms. If Barkley wasn't on the roster, Jones was getting tagged imo.
Schoen made a critical mistake. He may have made things more difficult for himself moving forward and I am not sure what impact it may or may not have on how he addresses the position moving forward.
He lost some momentum imv with ownership imv.
That's more of a separate debate though. I agree the contract wasn't ideal in the first place, since the team was further away than calculated and their shouldn't have been an accelerated timeline.
The question is whether Schoen can't or won't pivot away from Jones now based on a single season after giving him a 4-year, $160 million contract. I would argue that the contract is structured so that there are no mulligan years; Jones really needed to at least maintain his 2022 level of play as a baseline, because the scale of that contract reaches "restructure or cut" stage starting in the 2025 offseason, and you need a good sample of solid play from Jones to justify that restructure.
they knew they were picking #25.
Carolina traded up to #1 March 10th, so 1 QB was off the board.
Houston had 2 + 12 so it was likely they were taking a QB somewhere.
So the chances of drafting a preferred QB in 2023 were really low and preferring jones to any FA QB was pretty obvious.
If things went well on the field in 2023 obviously that would mean things probably went well for Jones.
If things didn't go well this was a predictable situation. Teams that end up in the top 10 of the draft dont typically get there thanks to good qb play. The depth of the QB position in this draft wasn't known last year but Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were. The worse things went on the field the better their chances at either of them.
Jones is again entering a prove it year and the Giants have a high enough pick to consider QBs in a good QB draft. The way things went wasn't their plan A, B, or probably even C, but they likely understood this as a potential scenario to end up in when they made the contract.
I hope Jones contract has nothing to do with it....other than weigh his cap vs other assets.
So your point is answered by answering question below:
Is a drafted rookie QB a marked improvement....floor or ceiling....over Jones....to attain goal....weighing adding players to defense, offense.
I assume Schoen believes he can win a Super Bowl with Jones....(why sign him if he didn't)....with a better OL....better targets....better defense..etc.
Teams do not think like fans....we tend to make it black and white....Jones out....someone else in.
That's the thing though, Schoen might have believed Jones was a Superbowl QB when the contract was signed. And Schoen DID go out and try to improve the weapons for year 1, and he did invest in the Oline in free agency and the draft.
The fact is Jones flopped and is now facing huge cap hits for the rest of his contract. Yes, his supporting cast also flopped (though they looked relatively fine when healthy with Tyrod), but you can't pay top dollar to a QB giving you a replacement-level performance. The contract absolutely matters, because Jones has to perform to the terms, particularly earn a restructure so his cap hits can be spread out to help build the team.
And further, a restructure after 2024 is going to be awfully tempting, locking in Jones for even more years. Jones would've have to hit some significant bencharks to earn it, at the very least play a full season and replicate his 2022 standard. You can't roll the dice with those odds, so they will try their best to bring in legitimate competition.
I think Schoen, first and foremost, missed the evaluation on Jones and gave him too much credit for 2022 performance. And in this past offseason he wanted to accomplish 3 things: 1) Extend Jones 2) Keep Barkley and 3) create some cap room to add a few select free agents (Okereke).
He was struggling accomplishing #1 & #2 as he would have liked which was get Barkley to agree to a lower longer term deal first which would have given him more leeway in dealing with Jones. But he didn't so he relied upon his evaluation of Jones (mistake) and concluded to give him the longer term deal and one where he could lower year 1 cap cost to accomplish #3. Barkley would just have to be tagged and dealt with later.
The Jones decision was a mistake. The Barkley decision was a mistake. The only saving grace was Okereke looks to be a very solid pickup but my guess is he could have accomplished #3 by playing more with the Thomas & Lawrence deals if push came to shove.
after a good playoff season in 2022 they only committed to 2 years of jones.
is it logical that they would make the decision this offseason to commit to another 2 seasons of him, at higher cap #'s, after 2 not insignificant injuries for a qb who has a lot of value in his ability to run productively and take hits?
i dont expect them to force a pick if there's not one there but they would be insane to pass on someone they like to give themselves 2 options not just this year but going forward.
The Jones injury is the new "escape hatch" imv.
I can see Schoen trading back from 6 if he has the opportunity. He can get a QB and also significantly impact the roster if he executes well.
I think he viewed him from the "I like what he accomplished in 2022" vantage point.
Both sides got good things in the agreement. Jones got more guaranteed money than 2 franchise tenders, and avoided the year-to-year risk of the tag game.
The Giants got 4 years, with no additional guarantees at signing after the first two years. If Jones plays well, those last two years will be bargains. If he doesn't, they cut him and pay none of the dollars from year 3 & 4.
And don't forget the contract was restructured before he ever played a down when Schoen needed money. The 'low' (it was still 15 mil) year one cap hit was more indicative of Giants desire to spend in FA, and resulting inability to pay DJ closer to the annual value, than some master plan to restructure 2 years in a row.
IF DJ proved himself, any restructure was going to raise the AAV. Sure, the cap hit could have been pushed down the road, but it would come at a cost.
He got a middle of the road contract, and was viewed as a middle of the road QB. Schoen structured it so that after 2 years, the Giants could dump DJ if DJ wasn't showing to be good enough.
If 2023 went well, he then could have tagged Barkley again and restructured Jones.
They weren't moving off either Jones or Barkley after last year. Right or wrong, that played into it.
In a passing league is the only move.
"Because, Tessio was always smarter. It was the smart move"
Hope it works out better for Joe than it did for Tessio. Leave the gun, take the cannoli.
I think he certainly might, but I think he'll literally and practically make that decision after the 2024 season concludes. Not before the season starts.
If Schoen picks a QB in the top 10, he's practically guaranteeing Jones won't be a Giant in 2025. For all intents and purposes he'll have "triggered" the exit after one year.
I think Schoen likes Jones, wants Jones to succeed, and will operate this year as if Jones is the future. I don't think Schoen views his injuries as career threateners or game changers.
I think he'll pick a QB as an insurance policy in the 2nd round, but not the heir apparent, which a top 10 pick would be.
It would be quite negligent not to consider that in the equation. It may not be the determining factor, but it has to be a factor.
And since this thread is a repeat, I'll repeat myself: A second round QB is still a try for a starter. It isn't as in your face as a QB at #6, but it is still a vote of limited confidence in DJ.
I'm completely lost on that.
That type of pick is a death blow to Jones. It means his time as a Giant is over at the end of this year. The two year trial has really become a one year trial.
I simply don't think the nature of his injuries + the limited amount of games/situation they were in, is enough to compel Schoen to make that definitive call already.
A second round pick is significantly less expensive, and they have two of them. It's an insurance policy, not a guaranteed replacement, in my view.
This makes drafting a successor THiS YEAR possible.
I think he viewed him from the "I like what he accomplished in 2022" vantage point.
Spot on. I'm not buying what others are selling that Schoen didn't have any other options, so Jones made the most sense per the circumstances.
If Schoen had doubts - still - about Jones there were other options that didn't require that much imagination or creativity. It would have required boldness.
As much as I hope Schoen finally has an epiphany on Jones, I fully expect the draft and free agency to be dedicated to building around Jones.
Unfortunately.
P.S. if he does invest a second round pick in QB, I actually do think that creates immediate tension in the QB room.
I think he certainly might, but I think he'll literally and practically make that decision after the 2024 season concludes. Not before the season starts.
If Schoen picks a QB in the top 10, he's practically guaranteeing Jones won't be a Giant in 2025. For all intents and purposes he'll have "triggered" the exit after one year.
I think Schoen likes Jones, wants Jones to succeed, and will operate this year as if Jones is the future. I don't think Schoen views his injuries as career threateners or game changers.
I think he'll pick a QB as an insurance policy in the 2nd round, but not the heir apparent, which a top 10 pick would be.
So, you are under the impression that Schoen is comfortable with Jones in 2025 at a $41.6M cap hit? Because imo that's what he would be committing too.
I forgot about that.
My point was that a second-round pick is a serious commitment and signal to whomever the starting QB is.
they knew they were picking #25.
Carolina traded up to #1 March 10th, so 1 QB was off the board.
Houston had 2 + 12 so it was likely they were taking a QB somewhere.
So the chances of drafting a preferred QB in 2023 were really low and preferring jones to any FA QB was pretty obvious.
If things went well on the field in 2023 obviously that would mean things probably went well for Jones.
If things didn't go well this was a predictable situation. Teams that end up in the top 10 of the draft dont typically get there thanks to good qb play. The depth of the QB position in this draft wasn't known last year but Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were. The worse things went on the field the better their chances at either of them.
Jones is again entering a prove it year and the Giants have a high enough pick to consider QBs in a good QB draft. The way things went wasn't their plan A, B, or probably even C, but they likely understood this as a potential scenario to end up in when they made the contract.
Exactly. Well said. It is what it is. We are in difficult situation for sure but I hope Schoen navigates well and gets us where we want to go.
As for the 2nd round pick, it is very reasonable to expect any of the QBs they would take in late 1st (assuming a trade) or 2nd round would be better than Jones out of the gate. That may or may not equate to a true franchise guy, but that is where we are at.
In Schoen, he did not have very many good choices with respect to QB. We drafted to late to get a high ranked QB plus Jones had a promising year in 2022. If he franchised Jones, he loses the money needed to sign free agents plus maybe Barkley. If he lets Jones go to free agency and he signs elsewhere, Schoen would have been crucified in the press and here. The same thing would have happened if Schoen did a rebuild in year 2. He did not have good choices because of 2022 success.
And don't forget the contract was restructured before he ever played a down when Schoen needed money. The 'low' (it was still 15 mil) year one cap hit was more indicative of Giants desire to spend in FA, and resulting inability to pay DJ closer to the annual value, than some master plan to restructure 2 years in a row.
IF DJ proved himself, any restructure was going to raise the AAV. Sure, the cap hit could have been pushed down the road, but it would come at a cost.
He got a middle of the road contract, and was viewed as a middle of the road QB. Schoen structured it so that after 2 years, the Giants could dump DJ if DJ wasn't showing to be good enough.
It's true that most contracts accelerate over time, but the Jones' contract is unique in that it accelerates rapidly in year 2 and stays at that level for the next 3 years, while the dead cap hit lowers significantly after year 2.
Compare with the Burrow and Hurts contracts, which rise very gradually in cap hit amount over 5 years, while the dead hits are basically astronomical until the 5th year. The point being: those guys aren't in "restructure or cut" mode until year 4 or 5, and honestly I'd be a little nervous about both due to health (Burrow) and performance (Hurts).
Jones, on the other hand, has a "restructure or cut" juncture after year two. I guess the Giants COULD theoretically live with his $41 million cap hit in 2025 because basically nobody from their 2021 draft class is worth re-signing.
If 2023 went well, he then could have tagged Barkley again and restructured Jones.
They weren't moving off either Jones or Barkley after last year. Right or wrong, that played into it.
I think by your own admission, Schoen wanted Barkley over Jones - “he wanted to sign Barkley to save the tag for Jones”, ie, he didn’t want to commit to Jones for more than a year. This past season would have been a prove it year, but he played hardball with SB and lost.
Tagging him, and therefore not having to deal with his contract anymore, would have been worth not signing any of those players.
So, you are under the impression that Schoen is comfortable with Jones in 2025 at a $41.6M cap hit? Because imo that's what he would be committing too.
I don't see that as inevitable at all. Say a player like Nix sees his value through the draft process fall, and the Giants pick him at 39.
I don't think a player picked at 39 is an existential immediate threat to Jones. There will certainly be appetite if Jones falters, but not the immediate pressure a top 10 picks brings.
If Jones doesn't play well, and Nix comes in at the end of the year and shines, they part ways with Jones.
If neither plays particularly well, they part ways with Jones and take another swing at QB.
If Jones succeeds, they keep him, and have a pretty cost controlled backup.
It will be the strongest draft investment they've made to QB since 2019 and third strongest since 2000 behind Eli & Jones. I think it'll be significant.
And yes, I agree Jones will have every opportunity to play again in 2024, but he'll have one of those 6 mentioned above behind him and another veteran as well.
It will be the strongest draft investment they've made to QB since 2019 and third strongest since 2000 behind Eli & Jones. I think it'll be significant.
And yes, I agree Jones will have every opportunity to play again in 2024, but he'll have one of those 6 mentioned above behind him and another veteran as well.
Well.. if it's Williams, Daniels, or Maye, Jones is not the starter anymore. He might, probably not but mught, get to start a few games, as the rookie prepares to take over, but the die will be cast, and whenever the rookie is ready, he takes over. It makes absolutely no sense to wait. He future will be Jayden Daniels (let's say) and the sooner he's starting the sooner the next Giants era arrives. If it's one of the other three, picked after the first, I could see a slower transition - maybe.
You can't wait until everything is just right to get your qb
In what I believe is the very unlikely event the Giants pick a QB on round one, I think he's the day one starter and they never look back. This is my preferred outcome.
What I believe will happen is the Giants pick someone in the 2nd round or later, and the Giants give Jones every opportunity to remain the starter.
Schoen didn't dip his toes in the water with Jones, he at least submerged a leg. I don't think that type of commitment is casually rewound.
You’re ignoring Jones’ contribution to bad OL performance. Jones is a roadblock to improving a poor unit.
This is not true. They spent more than the franchise tag on him in 2023. What year they recognize that hit in does not matter. You just move other people's money around. They would have saved $7MM from last year alone by doing that. They would also be $40MM ahead this year. They would, however, have lost Barkley or broken in negotiation and signed him to a higher team unfriednly deal.
they knew they were picking #25.
Carolina traded up to #1 March 10th, so 1 QB was off the board.
Houston had 2 + 12 so it was likely they were taking a QB somewhere.
So the chances of drafting a preferred QB in 2023 were really low and preferring jones to any FA QB was pretty obvious.
If things went well on the field in 2023 obviously that would mean things probably went well for Jones.
If things didn't go well this was a predictable situation. Teams that end up in the top 10 of the draft dont typically get there thanks to good qb play. The depth of the QB position in this draft wasn't known last year but Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were. The worse things went on the field the better their chances at either of them.
Jones is again entering a prove it year and the Giants have a high enough pick to consider QBs in a good QB draft. The way things went wasn't their plan A, B, or probably even C, but they likely understood this as a potential scenario to end up in when they made the contract.
This is it exactly. The contract they got with DJ was actually quite good in most respects - i.e. two year out, amt of guarantees, etc. It was higher than most expected but that difference is maybe $10 - $15MM. A lot, but not a very big number in QB world.