As we all know, the Giants were in a very good position in the 2022 NFL Draft, having the #5 and #7 picks. I believe this was the only time in franchise history that the Giants had two top seven picks (someone may correct me on that).
However, it was an atrocious year for quarterbacks, with only one going in the first round, Kenny Picket at #20.
How many times does that happen? No quarterback worthy of a top 10 selection?
Fast forward to 2024, and the Giants are perfectly placed to get a stud #1 wide receiver to go along with Wan'Dale Robinson in the slot and Jalin Hyatt as a dangerous #2. There are three WRs who are worthy of going in the top six.
However, the Giants have a quarterback problem and may have to pass on the WRs.
How this all fell just sucks.
The problem is you don't have someone to get those WR's the ball. So it's a big problem, probably the biggest an NFL team can face.
Perhaps in a few weeks things will show a path, but right now I expect Odunze or Nabers to be their choice.
The unfortunate luck is the Giants had a moron GM.
Also, don’t underestimate how important the Leonard Williams trade was for the extra 2. We have lots of maneuverability as of right now, and narratives like McCarthy or Bo Nix rising only helps us tremendously.
Schoen and Daboll are at a crossroads. The Jones contract backfired but the injuries gave them a second chance and all the justification they would need to pivot. If they go the “cheap vet” route they will sink. If they work this draft to get a QB they like, they’ll buy time and still have enough picks to address needs like edge or WR.
The nice thing for us as fans is we will pretty much know what route they’re going to take much sooner than later.
Schoen will succeed here if he finds a QB and he hasn't had the opportunity yet to find one. If you want to criticize him for not drafting Purdy, fine. But, I'm not.
He's extended Jones out 2 years at minimum. It's not a catastrophic contract like some want you to believe. It just isn't. It was never a "found my QB" contract.
This is the year for Schoen to acquire his QB. He needs to do it now. If there were multiple QBs sitting there in 2022, his job would be a lot easier. Adam Peters can just slide in and draft Daniels or Maye, a much easier job imo if those QBs hit.
why can't you get Rice and then get the QB?
If there is no QB at 6 or in striking distance that makes sense for the Giants this year, I see no reason why you don't take Nabers (assuming he's the guy).
and I'm also not advocating for trading up back into the 1st to get a QB or taking one in the second (unless Schoen feels like his that is his franchise QB - which I doubt - seems like settling to me - and that's how GMs lose jobs).
Be patient, but deliberate. if Nabers is a legit stud WR and the best player on the draft board - it certainly meets that intersection of need and talent - you take the player IMO.
I don't see any blueprint that says you have to have a franchise QB before taking a stud WR.
If that was the case players like Larry Fitzgerald (Josh McKown was the starting QB in ARI with Fitz was drafted) and DeAndre Hopkins (Matt Schaub the start in HOU when Hopkins was selected) never get drafted by their respective teams.
Schoen will succeed here if he finds a QB and he hasn't had the opportunity yet to find one. If you want to criticize him for not drafting Purdy, fine. But, I'm not.
He's extended Jones out 2 years at minimum. It's not a catastrophic contract like some want you to believe. It just isn't. It was never a "found my QB" contract.
This is the year for Schoen to acquire his QB. He needs to do it now. If there were multiple QBs sitting there in 2022, his job would be a lot easier. Adam Peters can just slide in and draft Daniels or Maye, a much easier job imo if those QBs hit.
While I completely agree with you that the Jones contract was structured to give Schoen some time to find a real franchise guy, that doesn’t mean the contract wasn’t a mistake. The money is too damn high, and the injury guarantee is downright disastrous. To me, the injury clause makes Jones unplayable.
He should have let Jones test the market, like he reportedly is doing with Saquon now. No one was paying Jones $42M a year, and if someone did, so be it.
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
However, the Giants have a quarterback problem and may have to pass on the WRs.
FWIW, I think they're gonna take a WR and ride with Jones for at least one more year.
Personally, I'd probably be happier with another OT or pass rusher. Especially if they could trade back a few slots and pick up more picks
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
It is possible to go too far on just grabbing the best talent. Saquon Barkley was the most talented player in the draft but should never have been the #2 pick because of the way RB careers are and their fungibility if you have the right OL. What I will say is that you can't draft Day 2 talent at 6 because you are looking to fill a position.
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
I am in violent agreement
why can't you get Rice and then get the QB?
because the QB is much harder to hit on. This is why its normally not done this way. There are studs WRs almost every year and sometimes several rounds deep. QBs not so much.
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(for example) because you don't have Joe Montana yet.
why can't you get Rice and then get the QB?
because the QB is much harder to hit on. This is why its normally not done this way. There are studs WRs almost every year and sometimes several rounds deep. QBs not so much.
And how do you know who will be the next Todd Blackledge and who will be the next Dan Marino? If you take a QB for the sake of taking a QB you are asking for a bust.
2012: Geno Smith, all others backups.
2013: If I tell you Derek Carr has had the best career of them, you'll get the idea.
2014: Winston and Mariota go #1 and #2. Not even really established starters. No one else who made it.
2015: it picks up, but none you would call elite: Goff, Wentz, Dak Prescott.
So, you could argue a run of four years of underwhelming starting QB's. Do they even have a Superbowl victory between them?.
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(for example) because you don't have Joe Montana yet.
why can't you get Rice and then get the QB?
because the QB is much harder to hit on. This is why its normally not done this way. There are studs WRs almost every year and sometimes several rounds deep. QBs not so much.
No you do not take a QB just to take a QB when you have a far superior player available at WR or ER.
I thought we'd have a shot at him!! But NOOOOOO...... he was drafted in 2020 by the Chargers
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(for example) because you don't have Joe Montana yet.
why can't you get Rice and then get the QB?
because the QB is much harder to hit on. This is why its normally not done this way. There are studs WRs almost every year and sometimes several rounds deep. QBs not so much.
this makes no sense unless the Giants are planning to take a QB this year.
My point was not take a WR over a QB, it was take a WR even if you don't have your QB.
Which is what I think Eric's point was.
Let's say the Giants love the top 3 QB's in the 2024 and only feel like the top 3 QB's are potential franchise QB's and they go 1, 2, 3. My point is don't avoid WR in that scenario.
Schoen had two top ten picks in 2022. It was up to him to use them correctly. Remember that he could have drafted Garrett Wilson at #7. He could have also traded one of the picks.
The Jones contract is a disaster IMO. Even if he is cut next year, the Giants will still at a minimum incur a $22M cap hit for doing so, the largest in team history. And absent a miracle turnaround in his career, the Giants will have gotten very little for the millions they paid Jones beforehand.
All of that is on Schoen, which is part of the reason why I don't want to trade up for a QB. I think massive trade ups for QBs fail far too often to be considered a realistic way of finding a franchise QB. But I also don't trust Schoen enough to pick the right QB if he did so, not given the draft capital that would be required to make that kind of trade.
However he does it, Schoen needs to find the next QB for the Giants in this draft. If he picks the wrong one, he should be fired. This isn't baseball. Two strikes is out.
As I said, no excuses.
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I bang this drum constantly, get the talent that fits your schemes and program and keep building. There's no rule (except stubborn stupidity) that says you must "build the OL first" or "who's gonna throw to the WR".
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
It is possible to go too far on just grabbing the best talent. Saquon Barkley was the most talented player in the draft but should never have been the #2 pick because of the way RB careers are and their fungibility if you have the right OL. What I will say is that you can't draft Day 2 talent at 6 because you are looking to fill a position.
Sure, but I didn't suggest any of that.
2018 and 2019! How about 2011 - 2021 with a couple of exceptions.
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
You have to have a program first. I'm not sure the Giants do.
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I bang this drum constantly, get the talent that fits your schemes and program and keep building. There's no rule (except stubborn stupidity) that says you must "build the OL first" or "who's gonna throw to the WR".
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
You have to have a program first. I'm not sure the Giants do.
What does that mean?
Yikes. The lack of true overall impact from those 2 picks has really hurt the rebuild IMO. And yes I’m probably being hard on Thibs but we need much more from him, including leadership.
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and it clearly began a chain of poor, crucial decision elements.
2018 and 2019! How about 2011 - 2021 with a couple of exceptions.
Sure, but the #2 and # picks were rare air and needed to be nailed in order for the franchise to reset and start a new foundation for success. Hiring the wrong GM, et al, was a typical comfortable half-measure to set the wrong stage moving forward.
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In comment 16403090 JonC said:
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I bang this drum constantly, get the talent that fits your schemes and program and keep building. There's no rule (except stubborn stupidity) that says you must "build the OL first" or "who's gonna throw to the WR".
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
You have to have a program first. I'm not sure the Giants do.
What does that mean?
Defining long-term what kind of team you want to be and acquiring the players you need to get there.
Maybe the Giants have these plans set, but in terms of their public-facing actions, the only feelings and goals I derive from them is that they really love Jones and Barkley. Hell, for the Met Life hockey games, they trotted out Barkley, Shepard, and DeVito, three guys who are either already off the team or are on their way out.
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I bang this drum constantly, get the talent that fits your schemes and program and keep building. There's no rule (except stubborn stupidity) that says you must "build the OL first" or "who's gonna throw to the WR".
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
I am in violent agreement
Wasn't this just proven to be true? A talented team with a mediocre (at best) QB went to the Super Bowl and were very close to wining.
Bill Walsh always said WR should be the last piece, not the first. The Raiders just lived this.
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In comment 16403122 Go Terps said:
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In comment 16403090 JonC said:
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I bang this drum constantly, get the talent that fits your schemes and program and keep building. There's no rule (except stubborn stupidity) that says you must "build the OL first" or "who's gonna throw to the WR".
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
You have to have a program first. I'm not sure the Giants do.
What does that mean?
Defining long-term what kind of team you want to be and acquiring the players you need to get there.
Maybe the Giants have these plans set, but in terms of their public-facing actions, the only feelings and goals I derive from them is that they really love Jones and Barkley. Hell, for the Met Life hockey games, they trotted out Barkley, Shepard, and DeVito, three guys who are either already off the team or are on their way out.
What does “they trotted out” mean? I didn’t see the games but were Barkley, Shepard and DeVito there because the Giants sent them? In what capacity? Without seeing the games my first impression would be that those guys decided to go to the games. On their own. Were they really trotted out by the Giants? I don’t even see how that’s possible when Barkley and Shepard aren’t even under contract
Yep. Need to strike now when we are relatively close at the top of the draft and there are QB options that look more than worthwhile.
Move up and do it soon.
why can't you get Rice and then get the QB?
If there is no QB at 6 or in striking distance that makes sense for the Giants this year, I see no reason why you don't take Nabers (assuming he's the guy).
and I'm also not advocating for trading up back into the 1st to get a QB or taking one in the second (unless Schoen feels like his that is his franchise QB - which I doubt - seems like settling to me - and that's how GMs lose jobs).
Be patient, but deliberate. if Nabers is a legit stud WR and the best player on the draft board - it certainly meets that intersection of need and talent - you take the player IMO.
I don't see any blueprint that says you have to have a franchise QB before taking a stud WR.
If that was the case players like Larry Fitzgerald (Josh McKown was the starting QB in ARI with Fitz was drafted) and DeAndre Hopkins (Matt Schaub the start in HOU when Hopkins was selected) never get drafted by their respective teams.
It's not the 1980s and Daboll is not in Bill Walsh's position. It's not the same.
Schoen had two top ten picks in 2022. It was up to him to use them correctly. Remember that he could have drafted Garrett Wilson at #7. He could have also traded one of the picks.
The Jones contract is a disaster IMO. Even if he is cut next year, the Giants will still at a minimum incur a $22M cap hit for doing so, the largest in team history. And absent a miracle turnaround in his career, the Giants will have gotten very little for the millions they paid Jones beforehand.
All of that is on Schoen, which is part of the reason why I don't want to trade up for a QB. I think massive trade ups for QBs fail far too often to be considered a realistic way of finding a franchise QB. But I also don't trust Schoen enough to pick the right QB if he did so, not given the draft capital that would be required to make that kind of trade.
However he does it, Schoen needs to find the next QB for the Giants in this draft. If he picks the wrong one, he should be fired. This isn't baseball. Two strikes is out.
As I said, no excuses.
Except when you need a QB and there was no QB available in the draft where you had two top seven picks, that is an excuse.
There are very good WR's that should be available in round 2. I expect NYG to grab a playmaker with pick 39.
I should remind everyone that Amani Toomer was the 5th pick of the 2nd round in 1996. We can find a WR on day 2 in a much deeper WR draft.
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excuses.
Schoen had two top ten picks in 2022. It was up to him to use them correctly. Remember that he could have drafted Garrett Wilson at #7. He could have also traded one of the picks.
The Jones contract is a disaster IMO. Even if he is cut next year, the Giants will still at a minimum incur a $22M cap hit for doing so, the largest in team history. And absent a miracle turnaround in his career, the Giants will have gotten very little for the millions they paid Jones beforehand.
All of that is on Schoen, which is part of the reason why I don't want to trade up for a QB. I think massive trade ups for QBs fail far too often to be considered a realistic way of finding a franchise QB. But I also don't trust Schoen enough to pick the right QB if he did so, not given the draft capital that would be required to make that kind of trade.
However he does it, Schoen needs to find the next QB for the Giants in this draft. If he picks the wrong one, he should be fired. This isn't baseball. Two strikes is out.
As I said, no excuses.
Except when you need a QB and there was no QB available in the draft where you had two top seven picks, that is an excuse.
Agreed. I am not faulting Schoen for not taking a QB at #5 or #7 in 2022. As you note, there were none available. Taking Pickett with either of those picks would have been awful. I'm faulting him because right now it doesn't look like he got enough value out of those picks, although I admit that isn't a final view.
This also isn't 2022. It is a QB rich draft. He and Daboll need to find a QB.
Yikes. The lack of true overall impact from those 2 picks has really hurt the rebuild IMO. And yes I’m probably being hard on Thibs but we need much more from him, including leadership.
I agree 100 percent. That draft set them back. Two top 7 picks. We’re still looking for the stud Tackle and KT has shown signs but has not lived up to expectations.
The giants were determined to get a receiver in 2021 which is never a great way to run a draft. They clearly wante D. Smith and gout out maneuvered by Philly. This was due to the leaky ship that was the giants front office. Everyone knew we wanted Smith and knew we wouldn’t take Parsons.
With smith gone they could/should have drafted Slater since the O-line was still a mess however he didn’t fit their mold. More importantly they were determined to get a receiver. They traded down and once again were in a great spot to draft Christian Darrisaw. Another player that would have fixed the line. However they took Toney. I still don’t understand how Parsons would be off the board but Toney was acceptable.
So we Schoen took over he now has 2 picks. Toney was just drafted 1st round so it removed G.Wilson from the equation. As Eric pointed out there were no QBs. Giants take Thibs and Neal. (Which seemed like appropriate value at the time).
2 years later we still don’t have a number 1 WR, consistent pass-rush, or solid play at RT…and of course no “franchise” QB.
why can't you get Rice and then get the QB?
If there is no QB at 6 or in striking distance that makes sense for the Giants this year, I see no reason why you don't take Nabers (assuming he's the guy).
and I'm also not advocating for trading up back into the 1st to get a QB or taking one in the second (unless Schoen feels like his that is his franchise QB - which I doubt - seems like settling to me - and that's how GMs lose jobs).
Be patient, but deliberate. if Nabers is a legit stud WR and the best player on the draft board - it certainly meets that intersection of need and talent - you take the player IMO.
I don't see any blueprint that says you have to have a franchise QB before taking a stud WR.
If that was the case players like Larry Fitzgerald (Josh McKown was the starting QB in ARI with Fitz was drafted) and DeAndre Hopkins (Matt Schaub the start in HOU when Hopkins was selected) never get drafted by their respective teams.
there's nothing incorrect about this but it cuts both ways. if you are in close proximity to a QB prospect you like more than any you've had a chance at in 3 years, you have to go hard. there is no guarantee it wont take another 3 drafts to be that close again.
but 100% agree you never force a pick if it's not there.
The unfortunate luck is the Giants had a moron GM.
Like when we missed out on Darnold and Rosen.
Bill Walsh always said WR should be the last piece, not the first. The Raiders just lived this.
Nick Chubb has proven to be a better pick from the same draft and he went in the second round. Using the #2 pick on a running back is just not a good strategy.
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In comment 16403115 AcidTest said:
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excuses.
Schoen had two top ten picks in 2022. It was up to him to use them correctly. Remember that he could have drafted Garrett Wilson at #7. He could have also traded one of the picks.
The Jones contract is a disaster IMO. Even if he is cut next year, the Giants will still at a minimum incur a $22M cap hit for doing so, the largest in team history. And absent a miracle turnaround in his career, the Giants will have gotten very little for the millions they paid Jones beforehand.
All of that is on Schoen, which is part of the reason why I don't want to trade up for a QB. I think massive trade ups for QBs fail far too often to be considered a realistic way of finding a franchise QB. But I also don't trust Schoen enough to pick the right QB if he did so, not given the draft capital that would be required to make that kind of trade.
However he does it, Schoen needs to find the next QB for the Giants in this draft. If he picks the wrong one, he should be fired. This isn't baseball. Two strikes is out.
As I said, no excuses.
Except when you need a QB and there was no QB available in the draft where you had two top seven picks, that is an excuse.
Agreed. I am not faulting Schoen for not taking a QB at #5 or #7 in 2022. As you note, there were none available. Taking Pickett with either of those picks would have been awful. I'm faulting him because right now it doesn't look like he got enough value out of those picks, although I admit that isn't a final view.
This also isn't 2022. It is a QB rich draft. He and Daboll need to find a QB.
Yeah, I believe Eric wasn't a fan of drafting a right tackle that high and boy does it look like that was a bad idea. Garrett Wilson there and a quality free agent right tackle or later pick for that spot would look great right now. I don't fault Schoen for much of this mess besides not letting DJ test the market or franchise tagging him, but I still question Mara's opining as a strong influence on the young new GM.
I think this sequence of seemingly bad luck is really from Gettleman making stupid decisions. It all started with drafting Saquon Barkley instead of trading down and taking Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson later on with a massive haul of picks from some stupid team trying to scoop up Darnold or Rosen. Taking a running back at 2, making him one of the highest paid running backs immediately while passing up on premier positions like QB, CB, and DL (Daron Payne, Vita Vea, Denzel Ward, Bradley Chubb) was moronic. He could have had Nick Chubb with our 2nd round pick instead of Will Hernandez out of the elite UTEP. Then in 2019, I was desperately hoping Josh Allen would fall to us and he did but Gettleman took Daniel Jones instead. Then he traded up for DeAndre Baker lol jfc. In 2020 we took Andrew Thomas, now I know is one of our few core pieces but imagine Gettleman wasn't an idiot and we had Denzel Ward, Nick Chubb and Josh Allen instead of Saquon, Will Hernandez and Daniel Jones. Justin Herbet would have been the obvious choice at pick 5 in 2020. Then in 2021 Rashawn Slater would have been the obvious choice at 11.
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if only there were QBs available in recent drafts when the Giants had a high pick.
The unfortunate luck is the Giants had a moron GM.
Like when we missed out on Darnold and Rosen.
Read my post. Gettleman was a complete imbecile. He really dug this team into the deepest of holes.
Have to assume the Giants wanted to do this but the other talent just wasn't there to trade down and get a #1 or more.
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In comment 16403083 JonC said:
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and it clearly began a chain of poor, crucial decision elements.
2018 and 2019! How about 2011 - 2021 with a couple of exceptions.
Sure, but the #2 and # picks were rare air and needed to be nailed in order for the franchise to reset and start a new foundation for success. Hiring the wrong GM, et al, was a typical comfortable half-measure to set the wrong stage moving forward.
Word.
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In comment 16403090 JonC said:
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I bang this drum constantly, get the talent that fits your schemes and program and keep building. There's no rule (except stubborn stupidity) that says you must "build the OL first" or "who's gonna throw to the WR".
Get the talent when it presents itself. The best teams consistently identify the talent and grab it. The Giants are poor at both over the past decade plus.
You have to have a program first. I'm not sure the Giants do.
What does that mean?
It means the Giants just followed a 6 year period where they hired and fired 3 head coaches with the ridiculous mishandling of the QB position over the last 2 years but the most recent regime. They don't know what they're doing.
Do you realize that if they draft a QB in round 1 they will have reversed themselves twice in two years?
What's the plan???
Prescott, Love, Purdy, Goff, Allen, Tua, Mayfield, Mahomes, Wilson, Carr, Jackson, Stafford, Hurts, Stroud, Howell
The Giants--pre Schoen included--could have drafted ten of these guys without moving up. And then add in that Mayfield, Stafford, and Goff were traded. A couple of these guys obviously suck or are boosted by the surrounding talent, but the Giants should have been taking some shots on net these two drafts.
Add in guys like Herbert, and the Giants have missed out on a lot of good QBs. I'd bet good money a really good QB is going to be drafted after pick #5. The Giants need to find that guy.
There are very good WR's that should be available in round 2. I expect NYG to grab a playmaker with pick 39.
This is draft gospel in most drafts the last decade+. If you have the right evaluators, you can find high-caliber WRs.
But in this draft in particular, even if we miss out on Harrison/Nabers/Odunze, the day two-three WRs are really interesting.
I personally think prospects like Thomas, McConkey, Franklin, Corley (what a monster he might be...), Rice, Wilson have just as much upside as the big three.
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if only there were QBs available in recent drafts when the Giants had a high pick.
The unfortunate luck is the Giants had a moron GM.
Like when we missed out on Darnold and Rosen.
Check to see if there were any other QB prospects worth taking. There may have been a few between 2018-2021.
Terps - A camel is a horse designed by a committee.
In comment 16403074 rnargi said:
Purdy's processing speed is exceptional and Shanahan tailored this into offensive play design and playcalling. He knows Purdy is limited on a few fronts (namely deep balls, tight window throws).
2016: Laremy Tunsil inhales. Giants get jumped by Titans and Bears. Result: Eli Apple
2017: Ben McAdoo has the brilliant idea to make a move to draft Mahomes. Gets laughed at. Result: Evan Engram
2018: Dave "Run the ball and stop the run" Gettleman hired as GM just in time for the 2018 QB class. Result (Not a) Gold Jacket Guy.
2019: Justin Herbert stays in school. Gettleman decides he has to draft a QB. Result: He Who Shall Not Be Named.
2020: Giants want to trade out of number 4, but nobody has a motivation to move up. Result: Andrew Thomas. Good player, but Giants could have had Tristan Wirfs plus picks.
2021: Giants win a November game against the Eagles they had no business winning. Leaves them in range on draft day for Eagles to jump up and snatch NYG's target, Devonta Smith. Result: Kadarius Toney.
2022: Giants wouldn't have drafted a QB anyway. Actual bad luck was Jets needing a CB and taking NYG's target, Sauce Gardner. Additional bad luck was Panthers taking Ekwonu over Neal, when Giants were ready to choose either.
2023: Mirage playoff win leaves NYG too far down for draft day luck to matter all that much.
2024: Can't wait!
Need to correct 2021 and 2022 (it all blurs together).
The 2020 mid-season winning streak left Giants in range for Eagles to jump them for Devonta Smith, leading to Toney.
The November 2021 win against the Eagles resulted in Kayvon instead of Aidan Hutchinson.
Just one bad decision after another. You could see this train wreck coming down the tracks. They set themselves up for misfortune with their stupid decisions and the way they have operated.
Start making good strategic and tactical decisions after critical, dispassionate analysis of what has gone wrong and the current assets and not basing decisions on fan narratives and the dubious opinions of the talking heads in the sporting press. Then you will see the "luck" change.
Bill Walsh always said WR should be the last piece, not the first. The Raiders just lived this.
Agreed
Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze aren't making a difference on this team as it is constituted. Further, we're seeing that college football is producing so much WR talent you can get them in later rounds.
I really hope they don't pick a WR #6.
Terps - A camel is a horse designed by a committee.
Agreed, go get KD or Daniels or Maye between picks 4-6 and let the chips fall where they may. It's the best bet imo