In July I wrote a post (link to
old post) looking forward to the Giants 3 year cap situation showing how most of a team's multi-year cap spending is tied to a handful of it's top veterans, and how those pieces are essentially the edge pieces to understanding the full puzzle of the team's multi-year roster building strategy.
Below is the updated version of the chart ahead of FA, as well as a link to a post I wrote analyzing in more depth what I think it means for the Giants plans' over the next few months. As you will see more than 50% of the Giants cap is associated with this handful of players. What's more if you look back at the version of this chart from July you will notice that 4 of the top 9 have turned over with a 5th (Waller) not on the firmest ground. Things change fast in the NFL.
There are 2 key takeaways. The first is probably not controversial but the second pertains to BBI's favorite bloodsport, Daniel Jones.
Takeaway #1
| The most important takeaway is find more Okerekes and fewer Wallers/Glowinskis. In free agency that’s easier said than done though even if you are only trying to find 1 or 2 players on that level out of hundreds of players. So that’s where the expectation level needs to be set. Free agency is a low probability game and the more you spend the more risk you create. With 7 starters contracts expiring the Giants have the resources to add a few before the draft, but how many available players are they are confident stacking on that chart for 3+ years? |
Takeaway #2
| Daniel Jones is the crossroads and the crossroads is Daniel Jones. Without him and Waller the 2025 bar would total less than 90m, which would give the team a lot of spending power in 2025 even if there were 2 or more names added in free agency 2024. There has been a lot of discussion about whether or not the Giants should take a QB high in the 2024 draft and if there’s one thing this chart tells me it’s emphatically that they should if they can get a prospect worthy of the selection (obviously you can’t force it if there’s not a player worthy of the pick). Future drafts hold no guarantees and they will have plenty of cap room to operate in the scenario where they move on from Jones. I think a simple thought experiment helps clarify this — if Daniel Jones doesn’t deliver in 2024 for whatever reason, what would be harder to buy in free agency March 2025 with the theoretical $20m of savings from Daniel Jones contract - a new QB or a position player close in quality to whomever their non-QB draft pick would be? The answer to that question is obviously the non-QB because QBs are much harder to find and the only starting QBs under $20m are rookie scale. Imagine the situation they would find themselves in if they pass on a QB this year, want to move on from Jones, but are also stuck 2 months away from a lesser QB draft with the world knowing they need a QB? What would it matter if Rome Odunze is a stud? With several quality QB prospects in this year’s draft I’d be surprised if they don’t act accordingly, unless they can’t because the guys they like go #1-3 and they can’t get up there. |
There's some more at the link below but the TLDR is that I can't imagine anyone not looking at the giants multi-year salary table and not coming to the conclusion that they need to roster a viable QB alternative ahead of whatever decision needs to be made about Daniel Jones in March 2025.
How The '25 Salary Cap Impacts '24 Decisions - The Giants aren't at the crossroads yet, but it's on the horizon - (
New Window )
The ones you’re getting the numbers mentioned usually are pretty mid.
It's likely a Dex and Thomas restructure will defer larger cap hits in subsequent years, which means guess who will be next up to plate for a restructure? Jones. He really needed to play well and stay healthy in 2023 to provide accumulated sample size/evidence to justify a future restructure.
You would really need to see top-ten play and 17-game health from him in 2024 to move forward. Weigh those odds against other options and possible outcomes; it's pretty apparent that you would need to cut bait at this point.
The ones you’re getting the numbers mentioned usually are pretty mid.
Up until 2 years ago (watson/wilson) star QBs still prime aged never changed teams.
Peyton and Brady (and now Rodgers) changed teams but all were very much at the end of the road.
I think there is a lot more noise/narrative around the QB discussion than there needs to be, and I think that's been true for 2+ years, but ironically the same forces that compelled the Giants to give Jones the contract they did incentivize them here to hedge that gamble.
Jones represented a talented prime aged QB capable of winning and possibly with some ceiling. This draft has 4-6 legitimate options that represent the same. If it was my job on the line I'd be happy to have both options rostered and sort it out on the field.
It's likely a Dex and Thomas restructure will defer larger cap hits in subsequent years, which means guess who will be next up to plate for a restructure? Jones. He really needed to play well and stay healthy in 2023 to provide accumulated sample size/evidence to justify a future restructure.
You would really need to see top-ten play and 17-game health from him in 2024 to move forward. Weigh those odds against other options and possible outcomes; it's pretty apparent that you would need to cut bait at this point.
I think when they did the Jones contract they likely planned to restructure him off a good season first, off a bad year i agree he becomes the golladay22/williams23 contract restructure of last resort.
As I mentioned in the non-QB sections though, I expect a little less aggressive spending this year because candidly their hit rate hasnt been very good in FA. I think they go big for 1 OL and then mostly depth signings other than that.
just ran the OTC cap calculator with the following moves:
1. full restructure of just Lawrence (save Thomas' restructure for later if even necessary)
2. cut Glowinski pre-June 1
3. trade Waller (since nyg would eat half of his cap hit i think someone would give you a day 3 pick for what is essentially a 1 year 7m contract)
that gets them to $44m under the cap and for context, here were the year 1 cap hits of their offseason moves last year:
Barkley $10m (tag)
Campbell $5m
Waller $5m
Okereke $4.4m
Slayton $4.2m
Nunezroches $2.6m
Robinson $2.5m
total year 1 hits = about 34m
this year's draft pool = 8m worth of space
so depending on how they structure things they should be able to get some things done but id expect a little less spending than last year since a couple of those moves were duds.
Quote:
And it lines up with what I've been saying: the simple economic reality is that the Giants need to grab the QB, especially if they plan to restructure Thomas and Dex to create room this offseason.
just ran the OTC cap calculator with the following moves:
1. full restructure of just Lawrence (save Thomas' restructure for later if even necessary)
2. cut Glowinski pre-June 1
3. trade Waller (since nyg would eat half of his cap hit i think someone would give you a day 3 pick for what is essentially a 1 year 7m contract)
that gets them to $44m under the cap and for context, here were the year 1 cap hits of their offseason moves last year:
Barkley $10m (tag)
Campbell $5m
Waller $5m
Okereke $4.4m
Slayton $4.2m
Nunezroches $2.6m
Robinson $2.5m
total year 1 hits = about 34m
this year's draft pool = 8m worth of space
so depending on how they structure things they should be able to get some things done but id expect a little less spending than last year since a couple of those moves were duds.
I'm definitely in favor of just going big for 1 or 2 great players in FA instead of bringing in bodies. Like you said, more Okerekes, less Glowinskis (and now for the first time in eons we don't have linebacker as an urgent need in the draft).
They absolutely should try to get a prime-age guard or right tackle.
Quote:
In comment 16403283 Lambuth_Special said:
Quote:
And it lines up with what I've been saying: the simple economic reality is that the Giants need to grab the QB, especially if they plan to restructure Thomas and Dex to create room this offseason.
just ran the OTC cap calculator with the following moves:
1. full restructure of just Lawrence (save Thomas' restructure for later if even necessary)
2. cut Glowinski pre-June 1
3. trade Waller (since nyg would eat half of his cap hit i think someone would give you a day 3 pick for what is essentially a 1 year 7m contract)
that gets them to $44m under the cap and for context, here were the year 1 cap hits of their offseason moves last year:
Barkley $10m (tag)
Campbell $5m
Waller $5m
Okereke $4.4m
Slayton $4.2m
Nunezroches $2.6m
Robinson $2.5m
total year 1 hits = about 34m
this year's draft pool = 8m worth of space
so depending on how they structure things they should be able to get some things done but id expect a little less spending than last year since a couple of those moves were duds.
I'm definitely in favor of just going big for 1 or 2 great players in FA instead of bringing in bodies. Like you said, more Okerekes, less Glowinskis (and now for the first time in eons we don't have linebacker as an urgent need in the draft).
They absolutely should try to get a prime-age guard or right tackle.
onwenu makes a ton of sense since he could be whatever they need. robert hunt to a slightly lesser degree but those would be the 2 guys id be on the phone with day 1 willing to pay more than 10m AAV.
thank u cosmic.