McCarthy has a lot of talent, I’ve always felt he was the most likely to shoot up draft boards. Sy referencing the under pressure stats mirrors what I’ve seen with Maye, he struggles with defenders at his feet.
If JJ goes top 5, that means Daniels or Maye is more likely to fall to us. I prefer Daniels, but Maye would be an interesting project for Daboll and Kafka.
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
Got to be 2004? Eli, Big Ben, Rivers and Schaub? JP Losman never came close to a Pro Bowl
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
As long as we aren't the ones who pick the JP Losman, we're good :)
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
As long as we aren't the ones who pick the JP Losman, we're good :)
By all means, someone pick JJ in the top five. Getting either Maye or Daniels as a project would totally make my day. Or at the very least, have first dibs on either Odunze (my lean, though I think they're neck and neck) or Nabers.
I've been aboard the JJ train for a couple weeks now
Sy has been able to quantify my feelings about him.
I do fear that after the combine McCarthy will move up the draft board and may be drafted before the Giants pick.
McCarthy's ability to succeed in pressure situations and his mobility in the pocket make him a better fit for the Giants.
However, I would not be disappointed with Daniels and Maye as consolation prizes.
There appear to be (4) quality QBs available.
I hope that the Giants draft one of them.
the biggest factor people still seem to overlook is the difference between the 3 juniors (williams, maye, jj) and the 3 other qbs who played 5+ years with transfers.
those extra years and extra reps, and in all 3 cases better receiving talent, were big factors in the areas where they had better stats. any JJ mccarthy fans out there? - ( New Window )
We've all witnessed the importance of a qb being able to perform well
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
Take a look at the pass McCarthy makes vs Ohio State in the 2Q of a 7-3 game with 10:25 to go on 3rd and 10. Ohio State was ranked #2 at the time and Michigan #3 in a game of two undefeated.
Especially the QB view of the pass, which is second angle on the video linked below. IIt looks rather ordinary in the broadcast view (first angle) but once you see his view, it’s spectacular.
Under pressure from3 guys, he throws a pass in anticipation of his WR who can’t even be seen yet into what looks like two defenders, except that pass is pinpoint placed over the shoulder and splits the defenders. Absolutely tremendous throw for a TD to make it 14-3. But forgetting the throw, the guts is takes to make that throw is something that’s been sorely missing around here. Go to 2:20 - ( New Window )
made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Penix has awful stats under pressure.
The worst of all the top QBs.
He is a different QB when not pressured.
The pressure in the NFL is a lot more complex than the vanilla Ds we see in college. So, I have no idea how to conclude that success against pressure in college equals success against pressure in the NFL.
Unless you plan on having a shit OL for the next 15 years
You can make a case for or against each. There are things to like about JJM - including some of the “numbers behind the numbers.”I would rank him 5th in front of only Nix but he could wind up being the best of the bunch.
All said, any of the top 6 QB prospects would be fine for me at #6. Williams or Maye if we’re trading up.
As long as we pick one of them and turn the page from Daniel Jones, we have hope for a turnaround - or at the very least a couple of years of more entertaining football than watching Danny Dumpoff attempting to play QB in the NFL.
I think he is someone who will bring that Brady-esque zero tolerance to losing and hold everyone accountable to getting better every single day. I see that kind of fire in him.
If you want a culture setter, this guy is it.
I love the coaching under Harbaugh and the confirmation of his numbers under pressure and in big game situations is EXACTLY what you want in a next level franchise QB.
I think he is someone who will bring that Brady-esque zero tolerance to losing and hold everyone accountable to getting better every single day. I see that kind of fire in him.
If you want a culture setter, this guy is it.
I love the coaching under Harbaugh and the confirmation of his numbers under pressure and in big game situations is EXACTLY what you want in a next level franchise QB.
I think this matters a lot. You can see it in the Pats doc on Apple+ and that Brady immediately started to change things in y1 as a starter that affected the whole team and even Belichick
Interesting viewpoint. I think McCarthy studies hard. He shows anticipation enough times that it makes you think he’s studied the play and the routes in a very concentrated way. That applies to the pass Hard Truth pointed to.
RE: RE: I'm on the wagon too. JJ is a winner. Period.
I think he is someone who will bring that Brady-esque zero tolerance to losing and hold everyone accountable to getting better every single day. I see that kind of fire in him.
If you want a culture setter, this guy is it.
I love the coaching under Harbaugh and the confirmation of his numbers under pressure and in big game situations is EXACTLY what you want in a next level franchise QB.
I think this matters a lot. You can see it in the Pats doc on Apple+ and that Brady immediately started to change things in y1 as a starter that affected the whole team and even Belichick
Exactly. The PERSON matters a lot. The right jockey gets the most out of a horse.
It's not enough that a player visually looks like Justin Herbert. That doesn't mean squat if the player doesn't have something special between the ears and in their heart to will a team forward.
That is a great throw. But that might very well be an INT in the NFL. McCarthy is a risk taker.
Its better than a QB eho never takes risks. Brett Favre took risks. So did Eli. You learn from mistakes. If you try to avoid them at all costs you are doomed to being mediocre.
I am just as over Jones as you. But let’s get past that and evaluate these interesting prospects. The Mich OSU game is interesting because McCarthy does impressive things vs a tier 1 defense.
That is a great throw. But that might very well be an INT in the NFL. McCarthy is a risk taker.
Maybe it is a pick in the NFL. But then again maybe he is making his calculations based on who is playing and what he anticipates they will do? So hard to tell with QBs and that’s part of why.
This was a big play (3rd & 10) vs a big time team (#2 OSU) in a big time game (two 11-0 teams with the loser probably not making the playoffs)
But looking at some highlights of the 4 QBs; I haven’t seen that kind of throw made from the other 3 guys. Not that I watch a lot of film. Williams seems to more rely on arm talent in tough spot (scramble a bit and throw it super hard or super far) Daniels takes off when pressured and Maye big plays seem to come from a clean pocket.
Take a look at the pass McCarthy makes vs Ohio State in the 2Q of a 7-3 game with 10:25 to go on 3rd and 10. Ohio State was ranked #2 at the time and Michigan #3 in a game of two undefeated.
Especially the QB view of the pass, which is second angle on the video linked below. IIt looks rather ordinary in the broadcast view (first angle) but once you see his view, it’s spectacular.
Under pressure from3 guys, he throws a pass in anticipation of his WR who can’t even be seen yet into what looks like two defenders, except that pass is pinpoint placed over the shoulder and splits the defenders. Absolutely tremendous throw for a TD to make it 14-3. But forgetting the throw, the guts is takes to make that throw is something that’s been sorely missing around here. Go to 2:20 - ( New Window )
An absolutely disgusting good throw. Elite anticipation and moxie to pull the trigger and trusting your study, ability, and the receiver. The balls and skill I wish we had.
Washington did it with RGIII and Cousins, and lo and behold they would have been better off keeping Cousins since RGIII got hurt and flamed out.
You never know. As Terps keeps shouting, keep shooting your shot. It's the most important position in the sport by far. Keep drawing until you get it right.
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
2020. Four in the first, Hurts in the second.
Maybe 2023, if Young or Hooker (injuries kept him out of the first) makes it. Stroud, Richardson, Levis (though he was second pick in second round, one pick out of top 32).
don't look at wins, I do believe Parcells said wins do matter. And then to say they look at traits...well all the traits Sy listed seem pretty doggone good.
And he is 21 years old. Was taught by Jim Harbaugh with a 27-1 record and performed extremely well in the playoffs this year. He was great under pressure and his WRs were exactly the quality of Jayden Daniel's WRs.
FWIW, I am not adhering to any specific QB. I'd probably take, gratefully, anyone of the top 6 because they are all better than Jones.
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
I like JJ and love the fact that he’s just 21 and extremely mature and talented.
I’m not thrilled with his size and body type… that is Maye’s biggest advantage.
Either should be a consideration if available.
made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
Penix has awful stats under pressure.
The worst of all the top QBs.
He is a different QB when not pressured.
I am not sure Penix being awful under pressure is correct. On the NFL Stock Exchange podcast which is presented by PFF. Trevor Sikkema mentions that PFF has Penix under pressure rating at 65.1, which is fine. But of particular note, Penix was sacked just 16 times in two full seasons and PFF has an off the charts sack avoidance rating in the 99th percentile. He and Bo Nix both come in at the 99th percentile, historically. Not sure what numbers you are looking at but Penix was great at avoiding sacks in college. And his passing performance was solid.
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
Michael Penix has an average PFF grade under pressure. Penix is only completing 43% of his passes when under pressure, but his adj. completion rate is average amongst the prospects. Penix has been sacked second least, with the lowest time to throw, even though he leads all the other in ADOT. Penix converts pressures to first downs at the 2nd lowest rate in the group.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
Michael Penix has an average PFF grade under pressure. Penix is only completing 43% of his passes when under pressure, but his adj. completion rate is average amongst the prospects. Penix has been sacked second least, with the lowest time to throw, even though he leads all the other in ADOT. Penix converts pressures to first downs at the 2nd lowest rate in the group.
Link - ( New Window )
So you are saying Penix is average under pressure and is great at sack avoidance. We agree this is what the numbers say. Which is not what you said, that he is terrible under pressure.
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
don't look at wins, I do believe Parcells said wins do matter. And then to say they look at traits...well all the traits Sy listed seem pretty doggone good.
And he is 21 years old. Was taught by Jim Harbaugh with a 27-1 record and performed extremely well in the playoffs this year. He was great under pressure and his WRs were exactly the quality of Jayden Daniel's WRs.
FWIW, I am not adhering to any specific QB. I'd probably take, gratefully, anyone of the top 6 because they are all better than Jones.
Parcells also wanted QBs who played out their college eligibility.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
Fair enough. I'll keep that in mind. I appreciate your indulgence and all your efforts to keep us informed. Many thanks!
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
Of all the QBs, I'm the most shrug emoji about JJ. Michigan didn't ask a lot of him & he didn't 'Wow' me, but a lot of talent evaluators I respect are high on him.
I think his stock is rising & I expect him to go top ten. If Joe & Dabs love him, take him.
made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
Also, JJ played against much better defenses than Maye which balances out the coaching and talent imo. I want JD, JJ or Maye in order of preference.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
If the picks go 1-2-3 as you have it, then the Giants are getting Maye at 6, and it will be an amazing steal. We'll all be getting drunk on the good stuff on draft night.
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
to love all the JJ hate now being switched to love on this site.
You SHOULD love people that forms their opinions and are willing to change those opinions as more and more information and data are presented
Your actual target should be the clowns that watch games from their sofa without a clue of what they are actually watching and then stick to their amateur guns and ignore that information and data for the sole reason that they want to be “right”.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
If QBs go 1-2-3 I expect Cards to run to podium for MHJ at 4 then we get Daniels, Maye or McCarthy with a slight trade up to 5 to ensure the Falcons, Raiders, Seahawks or Broncos don't snipe us. We would probably have to give up a 4th and 6th or something to ensure we get the QB. That's how I see it going down. If MHJ goes top 3 then we jump to 4 for our pick of the remaining 2 QBs while having to trade more. Either way I expect Schoen to ensure we get one of JD, JJM, or DM. It is a much better spot to be than I originally thought at the end of the season before studying JJM at length. Situations like this don't come very often. Schoen will capitalize and get one of the top 4 (unlikely CW) so I expect us to get JD, JJM or DM.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
Sy can obviously answer for himself but I'm certain he has CW and JD very closely ranked, he might even be higher on JD. I know I am. Who knows what the Commies do, but this is what I've seen from hints Sy has posted about his rankings. He is very high on JD.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
I have no idea what NFL teams think….but you claimed you do
Again….tell me how one can analyze performance without know one’s assignment ?
Do you have a poster of Caleb Williams on your ceiling?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
Oh and PFF has “secret data” that NFL teams don’t have access to
And if these deals with NFL teams are a “secret”….how do you know about them?
Does anyone he have to be banned multiple times on a message board to have access to this information?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
I have no idea what NFL teams think….but you claimed you do
Again….tell me how one can analyze performance without know one’s assignment ?
Do you have a poster of Caleb Williams on your ceiling?
Hopefully the Giants can nab one of these 'big 4' between Maye, Williams, Daniels or McCarthy. Maye and McCarthy are very intriguing the most for me and for Daboll's system.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Penix was pressured on 135 dropbacks this season. On those plays, he posted an NCAA Passer Rating of just 78.8, which ranked 42nd in college football. His completion percentage on those throws was 44.4 percent, which ranked 72nd in college football.
As charted by SIS, 66.0% of his throws under pressure were “catchable,” which ranked Penix 138rd in college football.
Quote:
Pressure is part of life as a quarterback. If you struggle in the face of pressure in college, things are only going to get tougher for you in the NFL. A recent example comes from the 2021 NFL Draft, and Zach Wilson. Wilson also put up huge numbers for BYU, but received the benefit of playing behind a great offensive line. When pressured, according to SIS, Wilson put up better numbers than Penix — such as a completion percentage of 54.2%, which ranked him 26th in college football during the 2020 season — but nobody who has seen him in the NFL would claim that playing under pressure is a strength.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
You forgot to include Williams with Penix and Nix with not being under pressure. And we saw how Williams did against pressure versus ND.
Still going to require a trade up. Too many QB needy teams desperate for a foothold where they can secure one of these guys. Maye is the one guy (besides CW) who I would be all for a move up to 3 or 4 to get.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
Of all the QBs, I'm the most shrug emoji about JJ. Michigan didn't ask a lot of him & he didn't 'Wow' me, but a lot of talent evaluators I respect are high on him.
I think his stock is rising & I expect him to go top ten. If Joe & Dabs love him, take him.
I respect the view. There is more gray / unknown with McCarthy. I still think he should have went back to school and be the no-doubt #1 guy in 2025
But in all honesty - how much of McCarthy did you watch? There are several wow throws and plays.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
I would also rather trade down in the first round and take Nix instead of moving up.
Maye is much more a pocket passer while JJ can thrive outside the pocket not only as a runner, but a passer.
Something tells me Dabooly sees JJ as a closer match to Allen than Maye. Maye may have size closer to Allen, but JJ has the better ability to improvise along with the power arm to make up for mistakes.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
Great thrower. Natural and repeated release that can layer it well. Love the touch he uses to get between levels of the defense. Gets flustered easily and needs to fix his footwork in traffic. Looks like a lost puppy when it gets crowded.
Has career backup (a good one) written all over him. And I don't mean that as an insult.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
And a lot of their success will depend on coaching and the talent surrounding them.
That's right. There is a minority of guys who virtually guaranteed to succeed regardless of situation. Far more (than people realize, IMO) that come down to factors external to them.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
We have no choice but to trust them….only time will tell
I have no problem with trading up….but as you had stated earlier it can’t be at the expense of giving up too much
We heard over and over at senior bowl that all the talk was how a team can break into the top 3 to get one of these guys. If JJ grades out, it means the phones will be ringing for Az and SD.
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
This. Michigan's offensive tackles had a really rough year in pass pro. And against the better teams, they had to abandon part of their game plan. But against Ohio State, McCarthy's TD pass was special, that was not a throw a lot of other QB's could have made.
RE: RE: RE: none of these QBs jump out as 1st round
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
How did JJ do against said top 4 defenses?
Made enough plays for them to win didn’t he? Did he do anything wrong? Or do you just look at stats.
Goal is to win games. Looked damn good against Bama - didn’t he? Three TDs and no turnovers? Ho hum…
The only QB that wows me in this class on the field is Caleb Williams. He in ways reminds me of a bigger version of Kyler Murray. Eye popping plays.
None of the other QBs in this class have ever given me that feeling of... "Whoa! Did you see that??"
Mentally I don't think he will cut it in the NFL but who knows? The other guys are all more or less Meh to me. Drake Maye has always been intriguing to me, and I love his size. That is someone I think Daboll can work with. I just don't see it with McCarthy.
But WTH do I know lol? I'll root for whoever the Giants pick (and whoever they have taking snaps from center next year).
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Thanks Sy, from a long time reader, appreciate the insight. Red flags on all the QBs, on and off the field. Don't feel great about any of the top QBs, but still think we need to draft one.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Thanks Sy, from a long time reader, appreciate the insight. Red flags on all the QBs, on and off the field. Don't feel great about any of the top QBs, but still think we need to draft one.
There's no such thing as a perfect QB prospect. You have to decide what you want to deal with.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
I don't think the Cardinals will trade back with MHJ on the board so if QBs go 1-2-3 then we trade up to 5 which allows the Chargers to get extra picks and get their guy, no other trades provide that for the Chargers and with so few elite grades on players I think they'd rather take less draft capital to ensure they get their guy.
If MHJ goes top 3 then we trade up to 4 for our choice of the remaining 2 QBs or if they have the same grade we trade up to 5. Either way, we provide the Cardinals and Chargers extra draft capital and they get one of the few elite graded prospects. If Schoen likes the QB, he will get him without having to trade anything insane to get up one spot. A 3rd and 5th or at worst our later 2nd would suffice. I don't see the Cardinals or Chargers trading away a chance at an elite prospect for extra draft capital.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
If you have reservations about this year's crop of QBs you will be very disappointed with next year's group.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
There are some interesting prospects, but there are a lot of question marks for next year beyond Sanders...
- Ward is a really good playmaker who can make a lot of throws with different arm angles.
- If Milroe can build on a very underrated 2023, he could be a big riser. Dangerous challenger for QB1...
- Allar drives me crazy as a Penn St fan. But he is a monster physically.
- Ewers can stroke it, but I can a real Jay Cutler feel with him.
- Beck has the size and a nice arm, but, JFC, he was a hard eval with the protection he got last year. Did he get his uniform dirty? ;)
- I keep drinking the Grayson McCall kool-aid, but he seems to have gone backwards the last two years. But he has size, a good arm, and some athleticism. Should be interesting seeing him play for NC State.
- Sy was very bullish on Riley Leonard, but he looked awful last year throwing. Granted, he got hurt and beat to a pulp. But he's another one to watch with a different team (ND)...
If you have reservations about this year's crop of QBs you will be very disappointed with next year's group.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
There are some interesting prospects, but there are a lot of question marks for next year beyond Sanders...
- Ward is a really good playmaker who can make a lot of throws with different arm angles.
- If Milroe can build on a very underrated 2023, he could be a big riser. Dangerous challenger for QB1...
- Allar drives me crazy as a Penn St fan. But he is a monster physically.
- Ewers can stroke it, but I can a real Jay Cutler feel with him.
- Beck has the size and a nice arm, but, JFC, he was a hard eval with the protection he got last year. Did he get his uniform dirty? ;)
- I keep drinking the Grayson McCall kool-aid, but he seems to have gone backwards the last two years. But he has size, a good arm, and some athleticism. Should be interesting seeing him play for NC State.
- Sy was very bullish on Riley Leonard, but he looked awful last year throwing. Granted, he got hurt and beat to a pulp. But he's another one to watch with a different team (ND)...
I think JJ would've been clear-cut #1 qb if he stayed, something to consider if we got him this year.
He's got good bloodlines. His brother Luke was on the UNC basketball team that won the NC in 2017 and was a very good player. And his father played QB for UNC in the '80s.
And he was a 4-star recruit who was committed to Bama at first.
Personally, I think he's made for the next level and doing big things...
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
Dude I watched alot of JJ this past season
He struck me as a game manager level QB.
Can he grow into a NFL QB???
Maybe
But he is not worth a high first rounder
Coram and Jenkins have better chances to contribute in the NFL
My personal opinion..
I am firmly in the trade back and fill gaps camp.
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
Dude I watched alot of JJ this past season
He struck me as a game manager level QB.
Can he grow into a NFL QB???
Maybe
But he is not worth a high first rounder
Coram and Jenkins have better chances to contribute in the NFL
My personal opinion..
I am firmly in the trade back and fill gaps camp.
Ik u did, I did too, but I didn't start seeing the potential of him until I really studied film and stats which you can't do while casually watching the games.
of the season, here are his aggregate stats, which include the national championship game, semis, Big Ten championship, Ohio State, Maryland, PSU.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
of the season, here are his aggregate stats, which include the national championship game, semis, Big Ten championship, Ohio State, Maryland, PSU.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
He was the main reason they beat Alabama, he literally carried the offense as their running backs had less than 70 yards rushing in regulation. And as someone mentioned, he was injured so badly they wanted to pull him at halftime of the Maryland game he was in agonizing pain but didn't want to leave the game. He's a former hockey player and is a tough SOB. Against 2 of the best defenses in the country he played great. I don't see the argument here tbh.
of the season, here are his aggregate stats, which include the national championship game, semis, Big Ten championship, Ohio State, Maryland, PSU.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
I get it. I'm all about attributes and projection.
I wouldn't underestimate the skill players McCarthy had at Michigan. Wilson is a very good day two prospect. Loveland looks like a helluva TE. And we know about the backs.
I have dug into McCarthy pretty deeply since it appears he could be in play as a day one prospect. So, I want to say I have watched over 80% of his plays in 2023. The most impressive pieces about his game are his short area burst and agility in the open field. He can gobble up ground quickly and run away from defenders. Those are plus skills for sure.
I'm all over the place with his arm. He can wind up and throw it with pace. But it's not an efficient, snappy delivery like a Rodgers where the ball explodes out of his hand.
JJs short TDs are no less impressive than long throws. They represent good decisions and good throws.
I'm good with JJ at 6.
Of the top 4 QBs, Williams is the one that scares me the most.
daniels scares me more than williams. there are things that scare me about williams but the riley system has translated a few times now. he's not a perfect prospect but it's easy to see a blend of baker, kyler, hurts and there's probably a really good argument he has the best pure skills of the 3.
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
I get it. I'm all about attributes and projection.
I wouldn't underestimate the skill players McCarthy had at Michigan. Wilson is a very good day two prospect. Loveland looks like a helluva TE. And we know about the backs.
I have dug into McCarthy pretty deeply since it appears he could be in play as a day one prospect. So, I want to say I have watched over 80% of his plays in 2023. The most impressive pieces about his game are his short area burst and agility in the open field. He can gobble up ground quickly and run away from defenders. Those are plus skills for sure.
I'm all over the place with his arm. He can wind up and throw it with pace. But it's not an efficient, snappy delivery like a Rodgers where the ball explodes out of his hand.
the throws that impressed me most were hitting guys in stride with good placement on crossers - the throw to morris vs bama is a really good example. the fadeaway flea flicker was great too.
but remember, 20 years old and still looks like 2 years away from shaving every day. tom brady and drew brees' arms changed a lot over their careers, brady was 23 years old when he got drafted, brees was 22. if jjm stayed in school 2 more years and played as many more games as nix/daniels/penix who knows what he'd be. on the high end it could easily be an obvious 1OA pick. if he went back 1 more year he'd have been in that mix for 2025.
of the season, here are his aggregate stats, which include the national championship game, semis, Big Ten championship, Ohio State, Maryland, PSU.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
I was surprised to read that nugget about Big 10 defenses.
Wonder if that was mostly the result of Big 10 offenses being awful including a lot of the QB play, and they got to play each other.
Saw plenty of big plays under pressure executed by him. Little small but should be able to add some weight.
If the Giants do draft him then bring some of the Michigan playbook with him. Love to see the Giants build a top running game via the RB's. More QB under center w/ heavy play action and less QB runs.
I only saw a half of Maye so not sure what to think of him but I can see teams liking his size arm physical attributes.
well, whoever is the QB with the Giants is definitely going to
to love all the JJ hate now being switched to love on this site.
We are fans of the NY Giants. What are fans supposed to do? Root against him if the Giants draft him?
That is a really stupid post by Amtoft. Ryankeane level “I am a better fan than you because I love the QB more than you!!!!”
The fact that some posters can’t understand the difference between liking/not liking certain prospects vs. rooting for them when they become Giants is surprising for anyone older than 12.
weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s near the top of their board. And I wouldn’t be shocked if they moved up to 3 or so to land him if he’s there., assuming he’s their top QB.
McCarthy sounds like the more versatile player based on Sy's observations.
I haven't had a strong feeling like I do about McCarthy and the Giants since Hakeem Nicks, that worked out pretty well. It got us a super bowl and he would've been a HOFer if he didn't get injured.
I just feel like he's gonna be the guy to get us out of the gutter. I feel like he's got it between the ears. Who knows. But I got a really good strong feeling about him and us. It sure would be wild here, divisive almost like Daniel Jones already, only Sy is on board with him unlike Jones. Sy's analysis of Jones predraft was prophetic
The Giants are not trading up to draft McCarthy. If anything they would trade down.
To say this at all is com0letely silly. To say it before the combine/pro day is utterly laughable.
If the Giants like him a lot after BD and Schoen interview him, they might have to swap with Zona because it would be very likely that other teams like him too. This kid is skyrocketing up boards and has every single tangible trait a team would look for in a QB, plus he's young, plus he has won consistently. I honestly don't see how the Giants can take any of the 4 qbs in the 1st round without trading up at all.
With 2 picks on the top 100 makes it difficult for them to move up, especially from 12th overall.
Giants may just need to go up to 4 or 5 to secure a QB.
We might have to give up one or both of our second rounders this year in order to do that.
Value chart says differently but it all depends on negotiations. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp - ( New Window )
I would love it if we only gave up our 3rd, or thereabouts, but all bets are off when it comes to a QB. The Jets traded three 2nd round picks to move up from #6 to #3 overall a few years back to take Darnold (lol).
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Thank you Sy! This is a great thread. Lots to unpack here.
1 - I'm fascinated by what the new Commanders brass might want in their QB. The classic QB build in Maye or the high performing guy in Daniels with the thinner upper body.
2 - It shouldn't be surprising to anyone but casuals that Daniels's upper body is a question mark. How much of a difference would a single season of an NFL strength & conditioning program gonna actually do for him? His upper body dimensions aren't gonna get any wider (look what happened to the kid the Colts took from Florida last year). Fascinating.
Mr personally, I'll take the classic NFL prototypical QB build in Maye. He'll last longer, but who the heck am I at the end of the day? I hope the Commanders take Daniels and the Pats take McCarthy. McCarthy is someone I can see putting on some weight after a season and being able to take the pounding and rigors of a strenuous NFL season.
If JJ goes top 5, that means Daniels or Maye is more likely to fall to us. I prefer Daniels, but Maye would be an interesting project for Daboll and Kafka.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
Gonna be brutal when the Giants take another position at 6.
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It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
Got to be 2004? Eli, Big Ben, Rivers and Schaub? JP Losman never came close to a Pro Bowl
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It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
As long as we aren't the ones who pick the JP Losman, we're good :)
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In comment 16406430 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
As long as we aren't the ones who pick the JP Losman, we're good :)
Agreed! :)
Sy has been able to quantify my feelings about him.
I do fear that after the combine McCarthy will move up the draft board and may be drafted before the Giants pick.
McCarthy's ability to succeed in pressure situations and his mobility in the pocket make him a better fit for the Giants.
However, I would not be disappointed with Daniels and Maye as consolation prizes.
There appear to be (4) quality QBs available.
I hope that the Giants draft one of them.
the biggest factor people still seem to overlook is the difference between the 3 juniors (williams, maye, jj) and the 3 other qbs who played 5+ years with transfers.
those extra years and extra reps, and in all 3 cases better receiving talent, were big factors in the areas where they had better stats.
any JJ mccarthy fans out there? - ( New Window )
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Quote:
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
The 2004 draft.
I am with you Jon. Maye at 6 would be ideal.
As good as Darnold, Jackson, Mayfield and Rosen? LOL
So you think Sy is lying? wtf?
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It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
As good as Darnold, Jackson, Mayfield and Rosen? LOL
You left out the best one, Josh Allen.
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In comment 16406430 Heisenberg said:
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It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
As good as Darnold, Jackson, Mayfield and Rosen? LOL
You left out the best one, Josh Allen.
It’s also hysterical that he lumped Lamar Jackson in with Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen, lol
Especially the QB view of the pass, which is second angle on the video linked below. IIt looks rather ordinary in the broadcast view (first angle) but once you see his view, it’s spectacular.
Under pressure from3 guys, he throws a pass in anticipation of his WR who can’t even be seen yet into what looks like two defenders, except that pass is pinpoint placed over the shoulder and splits the defenders. Absolutely tremendous throw for a TD to make it 14-3. But forgetting the throw, the guts is takes to make that throw is something that’s been sorely missing around here.
Go to 2:20 - ( New Window )
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
The worst of all the top QBs.
He is a different QB when not pressured.
The worst of all the top QBs.
He is a different QB when not pressured.
Yeah, good luck with that in the NFL.
Honestly, the only really attractive point on Penix is he isn't Daniel Jones.
The worst of all the top QBs.
He is a different QB when not pressured.
The pressure in the NFL is a lot more complex than the vanilla Ds we see in college. So, I have no idea how to conclude that success against pressure in college equals success against pressure in the NFL.
All said, any of the top 6 QB prospects would be fine for me at #6. Williams or Maye if we’re trading up.
As long as we pick one of them and turn the page from Daniel Jones, we have hope for a turnaround - or at the very least a couple of years of more entertaining football than watching Danny Dumpoff attempting to play QB in the NFL.
I know that traits are most important to the NFL evaluators but they look at projectable traits.
McCarthy has raw untapped potential.
Also, I believe that the ability to win under duress is a skill and the best have it.
I think he is someone who will bring that Brady-esque zero tolerance to losing and hold everyone accountable to getting better every single day. I see that kind of fire in him.
If you want a culture setter, this guy is it.
I love the coaching under Harbaugh and the confirmation of his numbers under pressure and in big game situations is EXACTLY what you want in a next level franchise QB.
I think he is someone who will bring that Brady-esque zero tolerance to losing and hold everyone accountable to getting better every single day. I see that kind of fire in him.
If you want a culture setter, this guy is it.
I love the coaching under Harbaugh and the confirmation of his numbers under pressure and in big game situations is EXACTLY what you want in a next level franchise QB.
I think this matters a lot. You can see it in the Pats doc on Apple+ and that Brady immediately started to change things in y1 as a starter that affected the whole team and even Belichick
Gonna be brutal when the Giants take another position at 6.
If we work up enough reverse psychology they might make the right decision.
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I would be happy getting him.
I think he is someone who will bring that Brady-esque zero tolerance to losing and hold everyone accountable to getting better every single day. I see that kind of fire in him.
If you want a culture setter, this guy is it.
I love the coaching under Harbaugh and the confirmation of his numbers under pressure and in big game situations is EXACTLY what you want in a next level franchise QB.
I think this matters a lot. You can see it in the Pats doc on Apple+ and that Brady immediately started to change things in y1 as a starter that affected the whole team and even Belichick
Exactly. The PERSON matters a lot. The right jockey gets the most out of a horse.
It's not enough that a player visually looks like Justin Herbert. That doesn't mean squat if the player doesn't have something special between the ears and in their heart to will a team forward.
Its better than a QB eho never takes risks. Brett Favre took risks. So did Eli. You learn from mistakes. If you try to avoid them at all costs you are doomed to being mediocre.
I'd love it. The Giants have too long neglected QB, I don't think DeVito is anything special.
Maybe it is a pick in the NFL. But then again maybe he is making his calculations based on who is playing and what he anticipates they will do? So hard to tell with QBs and that’s part of why.
This was a big play (3rd & 10) vs a big time team (#2 OSU) in a big time game (two 11-0 teams with the loser probably not making the playoffs)
But looking at some highlights of the 4 QBs; I haven’t seen that kind of throw made from the other 3 guys. Not that I watch a lot of film. Williams seems to more rely on arm talent in tough spot (scramble a bit and throw it super hard or super far) Daniels takes off when pressured and Maye big plays seem to come from a clean pocket.
Especially the QB view of the pass, which is second angle on the video linked below. IIt looks rather ordinary in the broadcast view (first angle) but once you see his view, it’s spectacular.
Under pressure from3 guys, he throws a pass in anticipation of his WR who can’t even be seen yet into what looks like two defenders, except that pass is pinpoint placed over the shoulder and splits the defenders. Absolutely tremendous throw for a TD to make it 14-3. But forgetting the throw, the guts is takes to make that throw is something that’s been sorely missing around here. Go to 2:20 - ( New Window )
An absolutely disgusting good throw. Elite anticipation and moxie to pull the trigger and trusting your study, ability, and the receiver. The balls and skill I wish we had.
I'd be thrilled if McCarthy was drafted by NYG.
It's not unprecedented.
Washington did it with RGIII and Cousins, and lo and behold they would have been better off keeping Cousins since RGIII got hurt and flamed out.
You never know. As Terps keeps shouting, keep shooting your shot. It's the most important position in the sport by far. Keep drawing until you get it right.
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It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
2020. Four in the first, Hurts in the second.
Maybe 2023, if Young or Hooker (injuries kept him out of the first) makes it. Stroud, Richardson, Levis (though he was second pick in second round, one pick out of top 32).
And he is 21 years old. Was taught by Jim Harbaugh with a 27-1 record and performed extremely well in the playoffs this year. He was great under pressure and his WRs were exactly the quality of Jayden Daniel's WRs.
FWIW, I am not adhering to any specific QB. I'd probably take, gratefully, anyone of the top 6 because they are all better than Jones.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
I’m not thrilled with his size and body type… that is Maye’s biggest advantage.
Either should be a consideration if available.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
The worst of all the top QBs.
He is a different QB when not pressured.
I am not sure Penix being awful under pressure is correct. On the NFL Stock Exchange podcast which is presented by PFF. Trevor Sikkema mentions that PFF has Penix under pressure rating at 65.1, which is fine. But of particular note, Penix was sacked just 16 times in two full seasons and PFF has an off the charts sack avoidance rating in the 99th percentile. He and Bo Nix both come in at the 99th percentile, historically. Not sure what numbers you are looking at but Penix was great at avoiding sacks in college. And his passing performance was solid.
Here is a link to the youtube version of the show, and the Penix sack discussion happens around 39:30
Penix under pressure numbers - ( New Window )
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... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
Link - ( New Window )
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
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In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
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... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
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Michael Penix has an average PFF grade under pressure. Penix is only completing 43% of his passes when under pressure, but his adj. completion rate is average amongst the prospects. Penix has been sacked second least, with the lowest time to throw, even though he leads all the other in ADOT. Penix converts pressures to first downs at the 2nd lowest rate in the group.
Link - ( New Window )
So you are saying Penix is average under pressure and is great at sack avoidance. We agree this is what the numbers say. Which is not what you said, that he is terrible under pressure.
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In comment 16406544 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
Quote:
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
Players who will the team to win.
You cherish those players and you will go to war for them.
Look at Mahomes and Brady they are not great because of their skills they are great because they are winners.
And he is 21 years old. Was taught by Jim Harbaugh with a 27-1 record and performed extremely well in the playoffs this year. He was great under pressure and his WRs were exactly the quality of Jayden Daniel's WRs.
FWIW, I am not adhering to any specific QB. I'd probably take, gratefully, anyone of the top 6 because they are all better than Jones.
Parcells also wanted QBs who played out their college eligibility.
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In comment 16406549 Manhattan said:
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In comment 16406544 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
Quote:
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
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.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
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In comment 16406550 Sy'56 said:
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.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
Fair enough. I'll keep that in mind. I appreciate your indulgence and all your efforts to keep us informed. Many thanks!
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
True, but UNC's wasn't much better.
I have argued one of the reasons Nix looked so good the last two years was the protection he received. That OL built a Berlin Wall around Nix..
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In comment 16406558 Mbavaro said:
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In comment 16406549 Manhattan said:
Quote:
In comment 16406544 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
Quote:
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
I think his stock is rising & I expect him to go top ten. If Joe & Dabs love him, take him.
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made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
Also, JJ played against much better defenses than Maye which balances out the coaching and talent imo. I want JD, JJ or Maye in order of preference.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
If the picks go 1-2-3 as you have it, then the Giants are getting Maye at 6, and it will be an amazing steal. We'll all be getting drunk on the good stuff on draft night.
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In comment 16406560 Manhattan said:
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In comment 16406558 Mbavaro said:
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In comment 16406549 Manhattan said:
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In comment 16406544 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
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... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
You SHOULD love people that forms their opinions and are willing to change those opinions as more and more information and data are presented
Your actual target should be the clowns that watch games from their sofa without a clue of what they are actually watching and then stick to their amateur guns and ignore that information and data for the sole reason that they want to be “right”.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
If QBs go 1-2-3 I expect Cards to run to podium for MHJ at 4 then we get Daniels, Maye or McCarthy with a slight trade up to 5 to ensure the Falcons, Raiders, Seahawks or Broncos don't snipe us. We would probably have to give up a 4th and 6th or something to ensure we get the QB. That's how I see it going down. If MHJ goes top 3 then we jump to 4 for our pick of the remaining 2 QBs while having to trade more. Either way I expect Schoen to ensure we get one of JD, JJM, or DM. It is a much better spot to be than I originally thought at the end of the season before studying JJM at length. Situations like this don't come very often. Schoen will capitalize and get one of the top 4 (unlikely CW) so I expect us to get JD, JJM or DM.
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
Sy can obviously answer for himself but I'm certain he has CW and JD very closely ranked, he might even be higher on JD. I know I am. Who knows what the Commies do, but this is what I've seen from hints Sy has posted about his rankings. He is very high on JD.
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In comment 16406571 Manhattan said:
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
I have no idea what NFL teams think….but you claimed you do
Again….tell me how one can analyze performance without know one’s assignment ?
Do you have a poster of Caleb Williams on your ceiling?
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In comment 16406571 Manhattan said:
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
Oh and PFF has “secret data” that NFL teams don’t have access to
And if these deals with NFL teams are a “secret”….how do you know about them?
Does anyone he have to be banned multiple times on a message board to have access to this information?
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In comment 16406577 Mbavaro said:
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In comment 16406571 Manhattan said:
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
I have no idea what NFL teams think….but you claimed you do
Again….tell me how one can analyze performance without know one’s assignment ?
Do you have a poster of Caleb Williams on your ceiling?
Duh.... Data points
Hopefully the Giants can nab one of these 'big 4' between Maye, Williams, Daniels or McCarthy. Maye and McCarthy are very intriguing the most for me and for Daboll's system.
As charted by SIS, 66.0% of his throws under pressure were “catchable,” which ranked Penix 138rd in college football.
Pressure is part of life as a quarterback. If you struggle in the face of pressure in college, things are only going to get tougher for you in the NFL. A recent example comes from the 2021 NFL Draft, and Zach Wilson. Wilson also put up huge numbers for BYU, but received the benefit of playing behind a great offensive line. When pressured, according to SIS, Wilson put up better numbers than Penix — such as a completion percentage of 54.2%, which ranked him 26th in college football during the 2020 season — but nobody who has seen him in the NFL would claim that playing under pressure is a strength.
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In comment 16406550 Sy'56 said:
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.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
You forgot to include Williams with Penix and Nix with not being under pressure. And we saw how Williams did against pressure versus ND.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
I think his stock is rising & I expect him to go top ten. If Joe & Dabs love him, take him.
I respect the view. There is more gray / unknown with McCarthy. I still think he should have went back to school and be the no-doubt #1 guy in 2025
But in all honesty - how much of McCarthy did you watch? There are several wow throws and plays.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
I would also rather trade down in the first round and take Nix instead of moving up.
Something tells me Dabooly sees JJ as a closer match to Allen than Maye. Maye may have size closer to Allen, but JJ has the better ability to improvise along with the power arm to make up for mistakes.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
Great thrower. Natural and repeated release that can layer it well. Love the touch he uses to get between levels of the defense. Gets flustered easily and needs to fix his footwork in traffic. Looks like a lost puppy when it gets crowded.
Has career backup (a good one) written all over him. And I don't mean that as an insult.
And a lot of their success will depend on coaching and the talent surrounding them.
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for another great analysis Sy.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
Between the Falcons, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders. There is strong chance two of those teams acquires Cousins and Fields.
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Are molds who need to be shaped.
And a lot of their success will depend on coaching and the talent surrounding them.
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In comment 16406608 AcidTest said:
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for another great analysis Sy.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
We have no choice but to trust them….only time will tell
I have no problem with trading up….but as you had stated earlier it can’t be at the expense of giving up too much
& if Joe & Dabs are enamored with one of them, fucking take the QB. Stop spinning our wheels with Jones.
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trades for Fields. The further back any suiters are, the more leverage we have with our #6 in a deal.
Between the Falcons, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders. There is strong chance two of those teams acquires Cousins and Fields.
Russell Wilson is another. Wilson to the Patriots prior to the draft? Maybe.
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Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
How did JJ do against said top 4 defenses?
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made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
This. Michigan's offensive tackles had a really rough year in pass pro. And against the better teams, they had to abandon part of their game plan. But against Ohio State, McCarthy's TD pass was special, that was not a throw a lot of other QB's could have made.
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In comment 16406615 AROCK1000 said:
Quote:
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
How did JJ do against said top 4 defenses?
Made enough plays for them to win didn’t he? Did he do anything wrong? Or do you just look at stats.
Goal is to win games. Looked damn good against Bama - didn’t he? Three TDs and no turnovers? Ho hum…
None of the other QBs in this class have ever given me that feeling of... "Whoa! Did you see that??"
Mentally I don't think he will cut it in the NFL but who knows? The other guys are all more or less Meh to me. Drake Maye has always been intriguing to me, and I love his size. That is someone I think Daboll can work with. I just don't see it with McCarthy.
But WTH do I know lol? I'll root for whoever the Giants pick (and whoever they have taking snaps from center next year).
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
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In comment 16406581 Optimus-NY said:
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
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In comment 16406614 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406581 Optimus-NY said:
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Thanks Sy, from a long time reader, appreciate the insight. Red flags on all the QBs, on and off the field. Don't feel great about any of the top QBs, but still think we need to draft one.
JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
That is certainly part of the eval process.
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In comment 16406660 widmerseyebrow said:
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In comment 16406614 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406581 Optimus-NY said:
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Thanks Sy, from a long time reader, appreciate the insight. Red flags on all the QBs, on and off the field. Don't feel great about any of the top QBs, but still think we need to draft one.
There's no such thing as a perfect QB prospect. You have to decide what you want to deal with.
Andrew Luck was close, though.
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In comment 16406608 AcidTest said:
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for another great analysis Sy.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
I don't think the Cardinals will trade back with MHJ on the board so if QBs go 1-2-3 then we trade up to 5 which allows the Chargers to get extra picks and get their guy, no other trades provide that for the Chargers and with so few elite grades on players I think they'd rather take less draft capital to ensure they get their guy.
If MHJ goes top 3 then we trade up to 4 for our choice of the remaining 2 QBs or if they have the same grade we trade up to 5. Either way, we provide the Cardinals and Chargers extra draft capital and they get one of the few elite graded prospects. If Schoen likes the QB, he will get him without having to trade anything insane to get up one spot. A 3rd and 5th or at worst our later 2nd would suffice. I don't see the Cardinals or Chargers trading away a chance at an elite prospect for extra draft capital.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
UNC had a good rushing attack too, so you can't really go there. Omarion Hampton is a damn good running back for them.
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JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
UNC had a good rushing attack too, so you can't really go there. Omarion Hampton is a damn good running back for them.
One of my favorite backs in the nation for next year
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In comment 16406614 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406581 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Eat a steak every day!
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In comment 16406664 M.S. said:
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JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
UNC had a good rushing attack too, so you can't really go there. Omarion Hampton is a damn good running back for them.
One of my favorite backs in the nation for next year
Yeah, he's a beast. Much better prospect than any of the Michigan backs.
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
There are some interesting prospects, but there are a lot of question marks for next year beyond Sanders...
- Ward is a really good playmaker who can make a lot of throws with different arm angles.
- If Milroe can build on a very underrated 2023, he could be a big riser. Dangerous challenger for QB1...
- Allar drives me crazy as a Penn St fan. But he is a monster physically.
- Ewers can stroke it, but I can a real Jay Cutler feel with him.
- Beck has the size and a nice arm, but, JFC, he was a hard eval with the protection he got last year. Did he get his uniform dirty? ;)
- I keep drinking the Grayson McCall kool-aid, but he seems to have gone backwards the last two years. But he has size, a good arm, and some athleticism. Should be interesting seeing him play for NC State.
- Sy was very bullish on Riley Leonard, but he looked awful last year throwing. Granted, he got hurt and beat to a pulp. But he's another one to watch with a different team (ND)...
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If you have reservations about this year's crop of QBs you will be very disappointed with next year's group.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
There are some interesting prospects, but there are a lot of question marks for next year beyond Sanders...
- Ward is a really good playmaker who can make a lot of throws with different arm angles.
- If Milroe can build on a very underrated 2023, he could be a big riser. Dangerous challenger for QB1...
- Allar drives me crazy as a Penn St fan. But he is a monster physically.
- Ewers can stroke it, but I can a real Jay Cutler feel with him.
- Beck has the size and a nice arm, but, JFC, he was a hard eval with the protection he got last year. Did he get his uniform dirty? ;)
- I keep drinking the Grayson McCall kool-aid, but he seems to have gone backwards the last two years. But he has size, a good arm, and some athleticism. Should be interesting seeing him play for NC State.
- Sy was very bullish on Riley Leonard, but he looked awful last year throwing. Granted, he got hurt and beat to a pulp. But he's another one to watch with a different team (ND)...
I think JJ would've been clear-cut #1 qb if he stayed, something to consider if we got him this year.
He's got good bloodlines. His brother Luke was on the UNC basketball team that won the NC in 2017 and was a very good player. And his father played QB for UNC in the '80s.
And he was a 4-star recruit who was committed to Bama at first.
Personally, I think he's made for the next level and doing big things...
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Not sure he is the MAN...
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
Dude I watched alot of JJ this past season
He struck me as a game manager level QB.
Can he grow into a NFL QB???
Maybe
But he is not worth a high first rounder
Coram and Jenkins have better chances to contribute in the NFL
My personal opinion..
I am firmly in the trade back and fill gaps camp.
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In comment 16406690 AROCK1000 said:
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Not sure he is the MAN...
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
Dude I watched alot of JJ this past season
He struck me as a game manager level QB.
Can he grow into a NFL QB???
Maybe
But he is not worth a high first rounder
Coram and Jenkins have better chances to contribute in the NFL
My personal opinion..
I am firmly in the trade back and fill gaps camp.
Ik u did, I did too, but I didn't start seeing the potential of him until I really studied film and stats which you can't do while casually watching the games.
There's no such thing as a perfect QB prospect. You have to decide what you want to deal with. Andrew Luck was close, though.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
Patrick Mahomes averaged 2.3 yards per air pass this season - cause that means he wasn’t thst good either.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
He was the main reason they beat Alabama, he literally carried the offense as their running backs had less than 70 yards rushing in regulation. And as someone mentioned, he was injured so badly they wanted to pull him at halftime of the Maryland game he was in agonizing pain but didn't want to leave the game. He's a former hockey player and is a tough SOB. Against 2 of the best defenses in the country he played great. I don't see the argument here tbh.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
JJs short TDs are no less impressive than long throws. They represent good decisions and good throws.
I'm good with JJ at 6.
Of the top 4 QBs, Williams is the one that scares me the most.
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
I get it. I'm all about attributes and projection.
I wouldn't underestimate the skill players McCarthy had at Michigan. Wilson is a very good day two prospect. Loveland looks like a helluva TE. And we know about the backs.
I have dug into McCarthy pretty deeply since it appears he could be in play as a day one prospect. So, I want to say I have watched over 80% of his plays in 2023. The most impressive pieces about his game are his short area burst and agility in the open field. He can gobble up ground quickly and run away from defenders. Those are plus skills for sure.
I'm all over the place with his arm. He can wind up and throw it with pace. But it's not an efficient, snappy delivery like a Rodgers where the ball explodes out of his hand.
JJs short TDs are no less impressive than long throws. They represent good decisions and good throws.
I'm good with JJ at 6.
Of the top 4 QBs, Williams is the one that scares me the most.
daniels scares me more than williams. there are things that scare me about williams but the riley system has translated a few times now. he's not a perfect prospect but it's easy to see a blend of baker, kyler, hurts and there's probably a really good argument he has the best pure skills of the 3.
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he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
I get it. I'm all about attributes and projection.
I wouldn't underestimate the skill players McCarthy had at Michigan. Wilson is a very good day two prospect. Loveland looks like a helluva TE. And we know about the backs.
I have dug into McCarthy pretty deeply since it appears he could be in play as a day one prospect. So, I want to say I have watched over 80% of his plays in 2023. The most impressive pieces about his game are his short area burst and agility in the open field. He can gobble up ground quickly and run away from defenders. Those are plus skills for sure.
I'm all over the place with his arm. He can wind up and throw it with pace. But it's not an efficient, snappy delivery like a Rodgers where the ball explodes out of his hand.
the throws that impressed me most were hitting guys in stride with good placement on crossers - the throw to morris vs bama is a really good example. the fadeaway flea flicker was great too.
but remember, 20 years old and still looks like 2 years away from shaving every day. tom brady and drew brees' arms changed a lot over their careers, brady was 23 years old when he got drafted, brees was 22. if jjm stayed in school 2 more years and played as many more games as nix/daniels/penix who knows what he'd be. on the high end it could easily be an obvious 1OA pick. if he went back 1 more year he'd have been in that mix for 2025.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
Preach
Never has been before
We are fans of the NY Giants. What are fans supposed to do? Root against him if the Giants draft him?
Odunze or McCarthy or Fashanu or Nabers
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Sy - let’s say Giants stay at 6. Draft has gone: Williams, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Alt. Who do Giants take at 6?
Odunze or McCarthy or Fashanu or Nabers
Fuaga intrigues me as OL2 in this class
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trades for Fields. The further back any suiters are, the more leverage we have with our #6 in a deal.
Between the Falcons, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders. There is strong chance two of those teams acquires Cousins and Fields.
Great points by both posters.
It seems Sean Payton and Russel Wilson are headed for a divorce in Denver too, if I'm not mistaken. Here's how I think things go:
Falcons - trade for Fields before the draft
Cousins might go to the Vikings or Raiders
I think the Broncos draft Nix if they can.
Picks 11 through 13 are as follows:
11 - Minny
12 - Denver
13 - Da Raidahs
.
.
.
16 - Seattle - Look out for the Seahawks too.
There are rumors floating around about Fields to the Steelers too and even Wilson to the Steelers.
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In comment 16406698 ryanmkeane said:
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Sy - let’s say Giants stay at 6. Draft has gone: Williams, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Alt. Who do Giants take at 6?
Odunze or McCarthy or Fashanu or Nabers
Fuaga intrigues me as OL2 in this class
The Jets apparently love Fuaga Mike at 10.
Never has been before
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes say hello.
JJs short TDs are no less impressive than long throws. They represent good decisions and good throws.
I'm good with JJ at 6.
Of the top 4 QBs, Williams is the one that scares me the most.
This is exactly where I am.
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Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
I was surprised to read that nugget about Big 10 defenses.
Wonder if that was mostly the result of Big 10 offenses being awful including a lot of the QB play, and they got to play each other.
Never has been before
The Draft is all about projection. What do you mean?
If the Giants do draft him then bring some of the Michigan playbook with him. Love to see the Giants build a top running game via the RB's. More QB under center w/ heavy play action and less QB runs.
I only saw a half of Maye so not sure what to think of him but I can see teams liking his size arm physical attributes.
McCarthy sounds like the more versatile player based on Sy's observations.
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to love all the JJ hate now being switched to love on this site.
We are fans of the NY Giants. What are fans supposed to do? Root against him if the Giants draft him?
That is a really stupid post by Amtoft. Ryankeane level “I am a better fan than you because I love the QB more than you!!!!”
The fact that some posters can’t understand the difference between liking/not liking certain prospects vs. rooting for them when they become Giants is surprising for anyone older than 12.
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In comment 16406610 UberAlias said:
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trades for Fields. The further back any suiters are, the more leverage we have with our #6 in a deal.
Between the Falcons, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders. There is strong chance two of those teams acquires Cousins and Fields.
Great points by both posters.
It seems Sean Payton and Russel Wilson are headed for a divorce in Denver too, if I'm not mistaken. Here's how I think things go:
Falcons - trade for Fields before the draft
Cousins might go to the Vikings or Raiders
I think the Broncos draft Nix if they can.
Picks 11 through 13 are as follows:
11 - Minny
12 - Denver
13 - Da Raidahs
.
.
.
16 - Seattle - Look out for the Seahawks too.
There are rumors floating around about Fields to the Steelers too and even Wilson to the Steelers.
the broncos/wilson situation is going to be interesting - i think albright reported payton loves mccarthy but they dont think they can get him.
Giants may just need to go up to 4 or 5 to secure a QB.
Giants may just need to go up to 4 or 5 to secure a QB.
We might have to give up one or both of our second rounders this year in order to do that.
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With 2 picks on the top 100 makes it difficult for them to move up, especially from 12th overall.
Giants may just need to go up to 4 or 5 to secure a QB.
We might have to give up one or both of our second rounders this year in order to do that.
No thanks.
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With 2 picks on the top 100 makes it difficult for them to move up, especially from 12th overall.
Giants may just need to go up to 4 or 5 to secure a QB.
We might have to give up one or both of our second rounders this year in order to do that.
Value chart says differently but it all depends on negotiations.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp - ( New Window )
McCarthy sounds like the more versatile player based on Sy's observations.
I haven't had a strong feeling like I do about McCarthy and the Giants since Hakeem Nicks, that worked out pretty well. It got us a super bowl and he would've been a HOFer if he didn't get injured.
I just feel like he's gonna be the guy to get us out of the gutter. I feel like he's got it between the ears. Who knows. But I got a really good strong feeling about him and us. It sure would be wild here, divisive almost like Daniel Jones already, only Sy is on board with him unlike Jones. Sy's analysis of Jones predraft was prophetic
One of them will be there at 4. I'm not so sure about 6 with the Chargers at 5 not needing a QB and at least 3 other clubs wanting\needing a young QB.
To say this at all is com0letely silly. To say it before the combine/pro day is utterly laughable.
If the Giants like him a lot after BD and Schoen interview him, they might have to swap with Zona because it would be very likely that other teams like him too. This kid is skyrocketing up boards and has every single tangible trait a team would look for in a QB, plus he's young, plus he has won consistently. I honestly don't see how the Giants can take any of the 4 qbs in the 1st round without trading up at all.
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In comment 16406907 Toth029 said:
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With 2 picks on the top 100 makes it difficult for them to move up, especially from 12th overall.
Giants may just need to go up to 4 or 5 to secure a QB.
We might have to give up one or both of our second rounders this year in order to do that.
Value chart says differently but it all depends on negotiations. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp - ( New Window )
I would love it if we only gave up our 3rd, or thereabouts, but all bets are off when it comes to a QB. The Jets traded three 2nd round picks to move up from #6 to #3 overall a few years back to take Darnold (lol).
Maybe from your perspective, but it appears many professionals think otherwise. I wonder who is right? Time will tell.
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Thank you Sy! This is a great thread. Lots to unpack here.
1 - I'm fascinated by what the new Commanders brass might want in their QB. The classic QB build in Maye or the high performing guy in Daniels with the thinner upper body.
2 - It shouldn't be surprising to anyone but casuals that Daniels's upper body is a question mark. How much of a difference would a single season of an NFL strength & conditioning program gonna actually do for him? His upper body dimensions aren't gonna get any wider (look what happened to the kid the Colts took from Florida last year). Fascinating.
Mr personally, I'll take the classic NFL prototypical QB build in Maye. He'll last longer, but who the heck am I at the end of the day? I hope the Commanders take Daniels and the Pats take McCarthy. McCarthy is someone I can see putting on some weight after a season and being able to take the pounding and rigors of a strenuous NFL season.