Washington did it with RGIII and Cousins, and lo and behold they would have been better off keeping Cousins since RGIII got hurt and flamed out.
You never know. As Terps keeps shouting, keep shooting your shot. It's the most important position in the sport by far. Keep drawing until you get it right.
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
2020. Four in the first, Hurts in the second.
Maybe 2023, if Young or Hooker (injuries kept him out of the first) makes it. Stroud, Richardson, Levis (though he was second pick in second round, one pick out of top 32).
don't look at wins, I do believe Parcells said wins do matter. And then to say they look at traits...well all the traits Sy listed seem pretty doggone good.
And he is 21 years old. Was taught by Jim Harbaugh with a 27-1 record and performed extremely well in the playoffs this year. He was great under pressure and his WRs were exactly the quality of Jayden Daniel's WRs.
FWIW, I am not adhering to any specific QB. I'd probably take, gratefully, anyone of the top 6 because they are all better than Jones.
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
I like JJ and love the fact that he’s just 21 and extremely mature and talented.
I’m not thrilled with his size and body type… that is Maye’s biggest advantage.
Either should be a consideration if available.
made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
Penix has awful stats under pressure.
The worst of all the top QBs.
He is a different QB when not pressured.
I am not sure Penix being awful under pressure is correct. On the NFL Stock Exchange podcast which is presented by PFF. Trevor Sikkema mentions that PFF has Penix under pressure rating at 65.1, which is fine. But of particular note, Penix was sacked just 16 times in two full seasons and PFF has an off the charts sack avoidance rating in the 99th percentile. He and Bo Nix both come in at the 99th percentile, historically. Not sure what numbers you are looking at but Penix was great at avoiding sacks in college. And his passing performance was solid.
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
Michael Penix has an average PFF grade under pressure. Penix is only completing 43% of his passes when under pressure, but his adj. completion rate is average amongst the prospects. Penix has been sacked second least, with the lowest time to throw, even though he leads all the other in ADOT. Penix converts pressures to first downs at the 2nd lowest rate in the group.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
Michael Penix has an average PFF grade under pressure. Penix is only completing 43% of his passes when under pressure, but his adj. completion rate is average amongst the prospects. Penix has been sacked second least, with the lowest time to throw, even though he leads all the other in ADOT. Penix converts pressures to first downs at the 2nd lowest rate in the group.
Link - ( New Window )
So you are saying Penix is average under pressure and is great at sack avoidance. We agree this is what the numbers say. Which is not what you said, that he is terrible under pressure.
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
don't look at wins, I do believe Parcells said wins do matter. And then to say they look at traits...well all the traits Sy listed seem pretty doggone good.
And he is 21 years old. Was taught by Jim Harbaugh with a 27-1 record and performed extremely well in the playoffs this year. He was great under pressure and his WRs were exactly the quality of Jayden Daniel's WRs.
FWIW, I am not adhering to any specific QB. I'd probably take, gratefully, anyone of the top 6 because they are all better than Jones.
Parcells also wanted QBs who played out their college eligibility.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
Fair enough. I'll keep that in mind. I appreciate your indulgence and all your efforts to keep us informed. Many thanks!
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
Of all the QBs, I'm the most shrug emoji about JJ. Michigan didn't ask a lot of him & he didn't 'Wow' me, but a lot of talent evaluators I respect are high on him.
I think his stock is rising & I expect him to go top ten. If Joe & Dabs love him, take him.
made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
Also, JJ played against much better defenses than Maye which balances out the coaching and talent imo. I want JD, JJ or Maye in order of preference.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
If the picks go 1-2-3 as you have it, then the Giants are getting Maye at 6, and it will be an amazing steal. We'll all be getting drunk on the good stuff on draft night.
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
to love all the JJ hate now being switched to love on this site.
You SHOULD love people that forms their opinions and are willing to change those opinions as more and more information and data are presented
Your actual target should be the clowns that watch games from their sofa without a clue of what they are actually watching and then stick to their amateur guns and ignore that information and data for the sole reason that they want to be “right”.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
If QBs go 1-2-3 I expect Cards to run to podium for MHJ at 4 then we get Daniels, Maye or McCarthy with a slight trade up to 5 to ensure the Falcons, Raiders, Seahawks or Broncos don't snipe us. We would probably have to give up a 4th and 6th or something to ensure we get the QB. That's how I see it going down. If MHJ goes top 3 then we jump to 4 for our pick of the remaining 2 QBs while having to trade more. Either way I expect Schoen to ensure we get one of JD, JJM, or DM. It is a much better spot to be than I originally thought at the end of the season before studying JJM at length. Situations like this don't come very often. Schoen will capitalize and get one of the top 4 (unlikely CW) so I expect us to get JD, JJM or DM.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
Sy can obviously answer for himself but I'm certain he has CW and JD very closely ranked, he might even be higher on JD. I know I am. Who knows what the Commies do, but this is what I've seen from hints Sy has posted about his rankings. He is very high on JD.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
I have no idea what NFL teams think….but you claimed you do
Again….tell me how one can analyze performance without know one’s assignment ?
Do you have a poster of Caleb Williams on your ceiling?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
Oh and PFF has “secret data” that NFL teams don’t have access to
And if these deals with NFL teams are a “secret”….how do you know about them?
Does anyone he have to be banned multiple times on a message board to have access to this information?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is just a numbers analysis..
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
I have no idea what NFL teams think….but you claimed you do
Again….tell me how one can analyze performance without know one’s assignment ?
Do you have a poster of Caleb Williams on your ceiling?
Hopefully the Giants can nab one of these 'big 4' between Maye, Williams, Daniels or McCarthy. Maye and McCarthy are very intriguing the most for me and for Daboll's system.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Penix was pressured on 135 dropbacks this season. On those plays, he posted an NCAA Passer Rating of just 78.8, which ranked 42nd in college football. His completion percentage on those throws was 44.4 percent, which ranked 72nd in college football.
As charted by SIS, 66.0% of his throws under pressure were “catchable,” which ranked Penix 138rd in college football.
Quote:
Pressure is part of life as a quarterback. If you struggle in the face of pressure in college, things are only going to get tougher for you in the NFL. A recent example comes from the 2021 NFL Draft, and Zach Wilson. Wilson also put up huge numbers for BYU, but received the benefit of playing behind a great offensive line. When pressured, according to SIS, Wilson put up better numbers than Penix — such as a completion percentage of 54.2%, which ranked him 26th in college football during the 2020 season — but nobody who has seen him in the NFL would claim that playing under pressure is a strength.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
You forgot to include Williams with Penix and Nix with not being under pressure. And we saw how Williams did against pressure versus ND.
Still going to require a trade up. Too many QB needy teams desperate for a foothold where they can secure one of these guys. Maye is the one guy (besides CW) who I would be all for a move up to 3 or 4 to get.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
Of all the QBs, I'm the most shrug emoji about JJ. Michigan didn't ask a lot of him & he didn't 'Wow' me, but a lot of talent evaluators I respect are high on him.
I think his stock is rising & I expect him to go top ten. If Joe & Dabs love him, take him.
I respect the view. There is more gray / unknown with McCarthy. I still think he should have went back to school and be the no-doubt #1 guy in 2025
But in all honesty - how much of McCarthy did you watch? There are several wow throws and plays.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
I would also rather trade down in the first round and take Nix instead of moving up.
Maye is much more a pocket passer while JJ can thrive outside the pocket not only as a runner, but a passer.
Something tells me Dabooly sees JJ as a closer match to Allen than Maye. Maye may have size closer to Allen, but JJ has the better ability to improvise along with the power arm to make up for mistakes.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
I'd be thrilled if McCarthy was drafted by NYG.
It's not unprecedented.
Washington did it with RGIII and Cousins, and lo and behold they would have been better off keeping Cousins since RGIII got hurt and flamed out.
You never know. As Terps keeps shouting, keep shooting your shot. It's the most important position in the sport by far. Keep drawing until you get it right.
Quote:
It's good news for the QB hungry giants that there may be 4 really good first round qbs in this draft.
When is the last time a single draft netted 4 franchise (or even pro bowl) level QBs drafted in the 1st round? It's likely 1 or 2 of these guys aren't going to turn out to be franchise QBs.
2020. Four in the first, Hurts in the second.
Maybe 2023, if Young or Hooker (injuries kept him out of the first) makes it. Stroud, Richardson, Levis (though he was second pick in second round, one pick out of top 32).
And he is 21 years old. Was taught by Jim Harbaugh with a 27-1 record and performed extremely well in the playoffs this year. He was great under pressure and his WRs were exactly the quality of Jayden Daniel's WRs.
FWIW, I am not adhering to any specific QB. I'd probably take, gratefully, anyone of the top 6 because they are all better than Jones.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
I’m not thrilled with his size and body type… that is Maye’s biggest advantage.
Either should be a consideration if available.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
The worst of all the top QBs.
He is a different QB when not pressured.
I am not sure Penix being awful under pressure is correct. On the NFL Stock Exchange podcast which is presented by PFF. Trevor Sikkema mentions that PFF has Penix under pressure rating at 65.1, which is fine. But of particular note, Penix was sacked just 16 times in two full seasons and PFF has an off the charts sack avoidance rating in the 99th percentile. He and Bo Nix both come in at the 99th percentile, historically. Not sure what numbers you are looking at but Penix was great at avoiding sacks in college. And his passing performance was solid.
Here is a link to the youtube version of the show, and the Penix sack discussion happens around 39:30
Penix under pressure numbers - ( New Window )
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... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
Link - ( New Window )
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
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In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
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... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
Quote:
Michael Penix has an average PFF grade under pressure. Penix is only completing 43% of his passes when under pressure, but his adj. completion rate is average amongst the prospects. Penix has been sacked second least, with the lowest time to throw, even though he leads all the other in ADOT. Penix converts pressures to first downs at the 2nd lowest rate in the group.
Link - ( New Window )
So you are saying Penix is average under pressure and is great at sack avoidance. We agree this is what the numbers say. Which is not what you said, that he is terrible under pressure.
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In comment 16406544 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
Quote:
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
Players who will the team to win.
You cherish those players and you will go to war for them.
Look at Mahomes and Brady they are not great because of their skills they are great because they are winners.
And he is 21 years old. Was taught by Jim Harbaugh with a 27-1 record and performed extremely well in the playoffs this year. He was great under pressure and his WRs were exactly the quality of Jayden Daniel's WRs.
FWIW, I am not adhering to any specific QB. I'd probably take, gratefully, anyone of the top 6 because they are all better than Jones.
Parcells also wanted QBs who played out their college eligibility.
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In comment 16406549 Manhattan said:
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In comment 16406544 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
Quote:
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
Quote:
.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
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In comment 16406550 Sy'56 said:
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.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
Fair enough. I'll keep that in mind. I appreciate your indulgence and all your efforts to keep us informed. Many thanks!
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
True, but UNC's wasn't much better.
I have argued one of the reasons Nix looked so good the last two years was the protection he received. That OL built a Berlin Wall around Nix..
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In comment 16406558 Mbavaro said:
Quote:
In comment 16406549 Manhattan said:
Quote:
In comment 16406544 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
Quote:
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
I think his stock is rising & I expect him to go top ten. If Joe & Dabs love him, take him.
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made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
Also, JJ played against much better defenses than Maye which balances out the coaching and talent imo. I want JD, JJ or Maye in order of preference.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
If the picks go 1-2-3 as you have it, then the Giants are getting Maye at 6, and it will be an amazing steal. We'll all be getting drunk on the good stuff on draft night.
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In comment 16406560 Manhattan said:
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In comment 16406558 Mbavaro said:
Quote:
In comment 16406549 Manhattan said:
Quote:
In comment 16406544 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
In comment 16406466 Manhattan said:
Quote:
... and NFL teams don't factor numbers as much as they factor traits.
And no, NFL teams don't care that much about wins. They care about traits.
And Maye is not the best in this class at moving the pocket, and pocket presence. Everyone I listen to says it is Williams.
Finally, if we care about college pressure stats so much, then what about Nix and Penix, who I have heard have far and away the best pressure stats in the class. So if that alone is good enough to elevate JJ, why doesn't it elevate them?
I'm not saying JJ doesn't have promise. And it seems like he might go in the top-10. I'd rather have Williams, Maye, Daniels and maybe Penix, for starters.
And I still think Maye is the clear #2 in this class, and I'd love to have him on the Giants.
Nix and Penix were two of the least pressured QBs in the country regular season. Nix was literally the least pressured QB in the nation.
They were 99 percentile all time. The number is too high. It's not least pressured, they are good at avoiding pressure.
So I guess you have broken down all of the film like SY has?😂😂😂
No. I am reporting to you what PFF is saying. And they chart every play.
PFF😂😂😂
Nuff said
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
You SHOULD love people that forms their opinions and are willing to change those opinions as more and more information and data are presented
Your actual target should be the clowns that watch games from their sofa without a clue of what they are actually watching and then stick to their amateur guns and ignore that information and data for the sole reason that they want to be “right”.
1. Caleb Williams to the Bears
2. Jaylen Daniels to the Skins
3. Pats take McCarthy
4. Cards -
5. Chargers -
6. Giants - (NYG trade one of their two second round picks in this draft to the Cards to move up from sixth overall to fourth and take Maye)
OR
Picks 1 through 3 go as posted above and the Cards insist on taking MHJr at 4 and then the Chargers take one of Alt/Bowers/Odunze/Nabers at 5. That'd leave Maye for the NYG at 6 without them having to give up a thing. This is assuming the Falcons trade for Justin Fields to be their QB before the draft.
If QBs go 1-2-3 I expect Cards to run to podium for MHJ at 4 then we get Daniels, Maye or McCarthy with a slight trade up to 5 to ensure the Falcons, Raiders, Seahawks or Broncos don't snipe us. We would probably have to give up a 4th and 6th or something to ensure we get the QB. That's how I see it going down. If MHJ goes top 3 then we jump to 4 for our pick of the remaining 2 QBs while having to trade more. Either way I expect Schoen to ensure we get one of JD, JJM, or DM. It is a much better spot to be than I originally thought at the end of the season before studying JJM at length. Situations like this don't come very often. Schoen will capitalize and get one of the top 4 (unlikely CW) so I expect us to get JD, JJM or DM.
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
Sy can obviously answer for himself but I'm certain he has CW and JD very closely ranked, he might even be higher on JD. I know I am. Who knows what the Commies do, but this is what I've seen from hints Sy has posted about his rankings. He is very high on JD.
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In comment 16406571 Manhattan said:
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
I have no idea what NFL teams think….but you claimed you do
Again….tell me how one can analyze performance without know one’s assignment ?
Do you have a poster of Caleb Williams on your ceiling?
Quote:
In comment 16406571 Manhattan said:
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
Oh and PFF has “secret data” that NFL teams don’t have access to
And if these deals with NFL teams are a “secret”….how do you know about them?
Does anyone he have to be banned multiple times on a message board to have access to this information?
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In comment 16406577 Mbavaro said:
Quote:
In comment 16406571 Manhattan said:
yea they're no good. What did they ever do. They're of no use to you, unless you want to quote them to back up a preconceived notion.
That crap is a joke
Amazing how they can analyze performance when they have literally no idea what a specific player’s assignment is
Maybe you can tell us more about how NFL front offices think with all of your vast experience working in the league
You were just more entertaining Producer obsessing on Caleb Williams
You know every NFL front office has a private deal with PFF to get data and analytics that isn't available to the public. I'm sure you know that because you seem to be implying that YOU know how front offices think. I wonder why the most efficient sports league and entertainment enterprise on the planet would decide to make PFF rich?
I have no idea what NFL teams think….but you claimed you do
Again….tell me how one can analyze performance without know one’s assignment ?
Do you have a poster of Caleb Williams on your ceiling?
Duh.... Data points
Hopefully the Giants can nab one of these 'big 4' between Maye, Williams, Daniels or McCarthy. Maye and McCarthy are very intriguing the most for me and for Daboll's system.
As charted by SIS, 66.0% of his throws under pressure were “catchable,” which ranked Penix 138rd in college football.
Pressure is part of life as a quarterback. If you struggle in the face of pressure in college, things are only going to get tougher for you in the NFL. A recent example comes from the 2021 NFL Draft, and Zach Wilson. Wilson also put up huge numbers for BYU, but received the benefit of playing behind a great offensive line. When pressured, according to SIS, Wilson put up better numbers than Penix — such as a completion percentage of 54.2%, which ranked him 26th in college football during the 2020 season — but nobody who has seen him in the NFL would claim that playing under pressure is a strength.
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In comment 16406550 Sy'56 said:
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.
Fair enough. But aren't we beyond the point where we don't give the QB credit for avoiding sacks, especially when their numbers are historical outliers? Especially, for Giants fans, who were told for 5 years that Daniel Jones' sack problems were only the result of a bad line, and had nothing to do with him, only to find out in 2023 that he was worse at avoiding sacks than a career journeyman and an undrafted rookie free agent?
Don't you acknowledge the QB has something to do with sack avoidance? And if you acknowledge this, where do you draw the line?
I'm not sure we are on the same page here.
Pressure can certainly be a QB's fault. Not being under pressure can certainly stem from good OL play and a good system and good skill players.
But there is no disputing that Nix and Penix simply did not have to deal with pressure (partially because Pac12 defenses are horrific).
We saw Penix under pressure against Texas. I haven't talked to an evaluator yet that thinks Penix is good against the kind of pressure he will see in the NFL. Not one. It is a major concern.
You forgot to include Williams with Penix and Nix with not being under pressure. And we saw how Williams did against pressure versus ND.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
I think his stock is rising & I expect him to go top ten. If Joe & Dabs love him, take him.
I respect the view. There is more gray / unknown with McCarthy. I still think he should have went back to school and be the no-doubt #1 guy in 2025
But in all honesty - how much of McCarthy did you watch? There are several wow throws and plays.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
I would also rather trade down in the first round and take Nix instead of moving up.
Something tells me Dabooly sees JJ as a closer match to Allen than Maye. Maye may have size closer to Allen, but JJ has the better ability to improvise along with the power arm to make up for mistakes.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????