My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
Great thrower. Natural and repeated release that can layer it well. Love the touch he uses to get between levels of the defense. Gets flustered easily and needs to fix his footwork in traffic. Looks like a lost puppy when it gets crowded.
Has career backup (a good one) written all over him. And I don't mean that as an insult.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
And a lot of their success will depend on coaching and the talent surrounding them.
That's right. There is a minority of guys who virtually guaranteed to succeed regardless of situation. Far more (than people realize, IMO) that come down to factors external to them.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
We have no choice but to trust them….only time will tell
I have no problem with trading up….but as you had stated earlier it can’t be at the expense of giving up too much
We heard over and over at senior bowl that all the talk was how a team can break into the top 3 to get one of these guys. If JJ grades out, it means the phones will be ringing for Az and SD.
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
This. Michigan's offensive tackles had a really rough year in pass pro. And against the better teams, they had to abandon part of their game plan. But against Ohio State, McCarthy's TD pass was special, that was not a throw a lot of other QB's could have made.
RE: RE: RE: none of these QBs jump out as 1st round
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
How did JJ do against said top 4 defenses?
Made enough plays for them to win didn’t he? Did he do anything wrong? Or do you just look at stats.
Goal is to win games. Looked damn good against Bama - didn’t he? Three TDs and no turnovers? Ho hum…
The only QB that wows me in this class on the field is Caleb Williams. He in ways reminds me of a bigger version of Kyler Murray. Eye popping plays.
None of the other QBs in this class have ever given me that feeling of... "Whoa! Did you see that??"
Mentally I don't think he will cut it in the NFL but who knows? The other guys are all more or less Meh to me. Drake Maye has always been intriguing to me, and I love his size. That is someone I think Daboll can work with. I just don't see it with McCarthy.
But WTH do I know lol? I'll root for whoever the Giants pick (and whoever they have taking snaps from center next year).
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Thanks Sy, from a long time reader, appreciate the insight. Red flags on all the QBs, on and off the field. Don't feel great about any of the top QBs, but still think we need to draft one.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Thanks Sy, from a long time reader, appreciate the insight. Red flags on all the QBs, on and off the field. Don't feel great about any of the top QBs, but still think we need to draft one.
There's no such thing as a perfect QB prospect. You have to decide what you want to deal with.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
I don't think the Cardinals will trade back with MHJ on the board so if QBs go 1-2-3 then we trade up to 5 which allows the Chargers to get extra picks and get their guy, no other trades provide that for the Chargers and with so few elite grades on players I think they'd rather take less draft capital to ensure they get their guy.
If MHJ goes top 3 then we trade up to 4 for our choice of the remaining 2 QBs or if they have the same grade we trade up to 5. Either way, we provide the Cardinals and Chargers extra draft capital and they get one of the few elite graded prospects. If Schoen likes the QB, he will get him without having to trade anything insane to get up one spot. A 3rd and 5th or at worst our later 2nd would suffice. I don't see the Cardinals or Chargers trading away a chance at an elite prospect for extra draft capital.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
If you have reservations about this year's crop of QBs you will be very disappointed with next year's group.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
There are some interesting prospects, but there are a lot of question marks for next year beyond Sanders...
- Ward is a really good playmaker who can make a lot of throws with different arm angles.
- If Milroe can build on a very underrated 2023, he could be a big riser. Dangerous challenger for QB1...
- Allar drives me crazy as a Penn St fan. But he is a monster physically.
- Ewers can stroke it, but I can a real Jay Cutler feel with him.
- Beck has the size and a nice arm, but, JFC, he was a hard eval with the protection he got last year. Did he get his uniform dirty? ;)
- I keep drinking the Grayson McCall kool-aid, but he seems to have gone backwards the last two years. But he has size, a good arm, and some athleticism. Should be interesting seeing him play for NC State.
- Sy was very bullish on Riley Leonard, but he looked awful last year throwing. Granted, he got hurt and beat to a pulp. But he's another one to watch with a different team (ND)...
If you have reservations about this year's crop of QBs you will be very disappointed with next year's group.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
There are some interesting prospects, but there are a lot of question marks for next year beyond Sanders...
- Ward is a really good playmaker who can make a lot of throws with different arm angles.
- If Milroe can build on a very underrated 2023, he could be a big riser. Dangerous challenger for QB1...
- Allar drives me crazy as a Penn St fan. But he is a monster physically.
- Ewers can stroke it, but I can a real Jay Cutler feel with him.
- Beck has the size and a nice arm, but, JFC, he was a hard eval with the protection he got last year. Did he get his uniform dirty? ;)
- I keep drinking the Grayson McCall kool-aid, but he seems to have gone backwards the last two years. But he has size, a good arm, and some athleticism. Should be interesting seeing him play for NC State.
- Sy was very bullish on Riley Leonard, but he looked awful last year throwing. Granted, he got hurt and beat to a pulp. But he's another one to watch with a different team (ND)...
I think JJ would've been clear-cut #1 qb if he stayed, something to consider if we got him this year.
He's got good bloodlines. His brother Luke was on the UNC basketball team that won the NC in 2017 and was a very good player. And his father played QB for UNC in the '80s.
And he was a 4-star recruit who was committed to Bama at first.
Personally, I think he's made for the next level and doing big things...
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
Dude I watched alot of JJ this past season
He struck me as a game manager level QB.
Can he grow into a NFL QB???
Maybe
But he is not worth a high first rounder
Coram and Jenkins have better chances to contribute in the NFL
My personal opinion..
I am firmly in the trade back and fill gaps camp.
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
Dude I watched alot of JJ this past season
He struck me as a game manager level QB.
Can he grow into a NFL QB???
Maybe
But he is not worth a high first rounder
Coram and Jenkins have better chances to contribute in the NFL
My personal opinion..
I am firmly in the trade back and fill gaps camp.
Ik u did, I did too, but I didn't start seeing the potential of him until I really studied film and stats which you can't do while casually watching the games.
of the season, here are his aggregate stats, which include the national championship game, semis, Big Ten championship, Ohio State, Maryland, PSU.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
of the season, here are his aggregate stats, which include the national championship game, semis, Big Ten championship, Ohio State, Maryland, PSU.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
He was the main reason they beat Alabama, he literally carried the offense as their running backs had less than 70 yards rushing in regulation. And as someone mentioned, he was injured so badly they wanted to pull him at halftime of the Maryland game he was in agonizing pain but didn't want to leave the game. He's a former hockey player and is a tough SOB. Against 2 of the best defenses in the country he played great. I don't see the argument here tbh.
of the season, here are his aggregate stats, which include the national championship game, semis, Big Ten championship, Ohio State, Maryland, PSU.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
I get it. I'm all about attributes and projection.
I wouldn't underestimate the skill players McCarthy had at Michigan. Wilson is a very good day two prospect. Loveland looks like a helluva TE. And we know about the backs.
I have dug into McCarthy pretty deeply since it appears he could be in play as a day one prospect. So, I want to say I have watched over 80% of his plays in 2023. The most impressive pieces about his game are his short area burst and agility in the open field. He can gobble up ground quickly and run away from defenders. Those are plus skills for sure.
I'm all over the place with his arm. He can wind up and throw it with pace. But it's not an efficient, snappy delivery like a Rodgers where the ball explodes out of his hand.
JJs short TDs are no less impressive than long throws. They represent good decisions and good throws.
I'm good with JJ at 6.
Of the top 4 QBs, Williams is the one that scares me the most.
daniels scares me more than williams. there are things that scare me about williams but the riley system has translated a few times now. he's not a perfect prospect but it's easy to see a blend of baker, kyler, hurts and there's probably a really good argument he has the best pure skills of the 3.
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
I get it. I'm all about attributes and projection.
I wouldn't underestimate the skill players McCarthy had at Michigan. Wilson is a very good day two prospect. Loveland looks like a helluva TE. And we know about the backs.
I have dug into McCarthy pretty deeply since it appears he could be in play as a day one prospect. So, I want to say I have watched over 80% of his plays in 2023. The most impressive pieces about his game are his short area burst and agility in the open field. He can gobble up ground quickly and run away from defenders. Those are plus skills for sure.
I'm all over the place with his arm. He can wind up and throw it with pace. But it's not an efficient, snappy delivery like a Rodgers where the ball explodes out of his hand.
the throws that impressed me most were hitting guys in stride with good placement on crossers - the throw to morris vs bama is a really good example. the fadeaway flea flicker was great too.
but remember, 20 years old and still looks like 2 years away from shaving every day. tom brady and drew brees' arms changed a lot over their careers, brady was 23 years old when he got drafted, brees was 22. if jjm stayed in school 2 more years and played as many more games as nix/daniels/penix who knows what he'd be. on the high end it could easily be an obvious 1OA pick. if he went back 1 more year he'd have been in that mix for 2025.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
Great thrower. Natural and repeated release that can layer it well. Love the touch he uses to get between levels of the defense. Gets flustered easily and needs to fix his footwork in traffic. Looks like a lost puppy when it gets crowded.
Has career backup (a good one) written all over him. And I don't mean that as an insult.
And a lot of their success will depend on coaching and the talent surrounding them.
Quote:
for another great analysis Sy.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
Between the Falcons, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders. There is strong chance two of those teams acquires Cousins and Fields.
Quote:
Are molds who need to be shaped.
And a lot of their success will depend on coaching and the talent surrounding them.
Quote:
In comment 16406608 AcidTest said:
Quote:
for another great analysis Sy.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
We have no choice but to trust them….only time will tell
I have no problem with trading up….but as you had stated earlier it can’t be at the expense of giving up too much
& if Joe & Dabs are enamored with one of them, fucking take the QB. Stop spinning our wheels with Jones.
Quote:
trades for Fields. The further back any suiters are, the more leverage we have with our #6 in a deal.
Between the Falcons, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders. There is strong chance two of those teams acquires Cousins and Fields.
Russell Wilson is another. Wilson to the Patriots prior to the draft? Maybe.
Quote:
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
How did JJ do against said top 4 defenses?
Quote:
made the key comments here: McCarthy played with much better talent.
So, if you accept that and that he played with better coaching (which he clearly did), how can then not conclude that McCarthy was in a better environment to succeed?
Another way to look at this is that Maye played under more duress than McCarthy and was asked to shoulder more of the burden. So, perhaps that means something in favor of Maye...?
Yup - I won't fault anyone for that approach. It is credible.
But there are two ways to look at it. And Michigan's OL was horrific in pass pro in 2023 just FYI.
This. Michigan's offensive tackles had a really rough year in pass pro. And against the better teams, they had to abandon part of their game plan. But against Ohio State, McCarthy's TD pass was special, that was not a throw a lot of other QB's could have made.
Quote:
In comment 16406615 AROCK1000 said:
Quote:
Guarantees
IMHO
Look at JJs # vs very good to excellent Defenses..
Which in the Big 10 were few and far between.
He had 1 good drive Vs Bama...
Penn St
Ohio St
Nothing burgers
where is this hype coming from????
The big 10 had the best four of the best 5 defenses in the NCAA last year.
Why do you just look at stats to judge a player? You’re becoming stale and a bore at this point.
How did JJ do against said top 4 defenses?
Made enough plays for them to win didn’t he? Did he do anything wrong? Or do you just look at stats.
Goal is to win games. Looked damn good against Bama - didn’t he? Three TDs and no turnovers? Ho hum…
None of the other QBs in this class have ever given me that feeling of... "Whoa! Did you see that??"
Mentally I don't think he will cut it in the NFL but who knows? The other guys are all more or less Meh to me. Drake Maye has always been intriguing to me, and I love his size. That is someone I think Daboll can work with. I just don't see it with McCarthy.
But WTH do I know lol? I'll root for whoever the Giants pick (and whoever they have taking snaps from center next year).
Quote:
Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
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In comment 16406581 Optimus-NY said:
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
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In comment 16406614 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406581 Optimus-NY said:
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Thanks Sy, from a long time reader, appreciate the insight. Red flags on all the QBs, on and off the field. Don't feel great about any of the top QBs, but still think we need to draft one.
JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
That is certainly part of the eval process.
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In comment 16406660 widmerseyebrow said:
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In comment 16406614 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406581 Optimus-NY said:
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Thanks Sy, from a long time reader, appreciate the insight. Red flags on all the QBs, on and off the field. Don't feel great about any of the top QBs, but still think we need to draft one.
There's no such thing as a perfect QB prospect. You have to decide what you want to deal with.
Andrew Luck was close, though.
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In comment 16406608 AcidTest said:
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for another great analysis Sy.
My guess is that whatever the order, Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy will all be drafted before #6. Starting at pick #3, there will likely be a big bidding war for the two that remain. The cost to move up to #3, #4, or #5 will consequently be a lot more than one, two, or even three second round picks.
The worst draft strategy is to get into a bidding war for any player. Tteams know that, but every year they do it anyway in a desperate desire to try and find a franchise QB. They do so even though 50% of first round QBs bust. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work and strip teams of precious draft capital.
I'd rather draft Rattler or Pratt on day two then give up a ton of draft capital to move up for Maye or McCarthy.
But the flip side to they is that neither Pratt or Rattler solves the QB problem
Nobody knows that. But I'd rather not spend tons of draft capital to get a first round QB with a 50% bust rate. Rattler, Pratt, or Nix would be a lot cheaper. And after signing Jones to that ridiculous contract, why should we trust Schoen's judgment about which QB to pick, especially given the cost to move up?
I don't think the Cardinals will trade back with MHJ on the board so if QBs go 1-2-3 then we trade up to 5 which allows the Chargers to get extra picks and get their guy, no other trades provide that for the Chargers and with so few elite grades on players I think they'd rather take less draft capital to ensure they get their guy.
If MHJ goes top 3 then we trade up to 4 for our choice of the remaining 2 QBs or if they have the same grade we trade up to 5. Either way, we provide the Cardinals and Chargers extra draft capital and they get one of the few elite graded prospects. If Schoen likes the QB, he will get him without having to trade anything insane to get up one spot. A 3rd and 5th or at worst our later 2nd would suffice. I don't see the Cardinals or Chargers trading away a chance at an elite prospect for extra draft capital.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
UNC had a good rushing attack too, so you can't really go there. Omarion Hampton is a damn good running back for them.
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JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
UNC had a good rushing attack too, so you can't really go there. Omarion Hampton is a damn good running back for them.
One of my favorite backs in the nation for next year
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In comment 16406614 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16406581 Optimus-NY said:
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Excellent video with lots of food for thought.
Question though - Assuming the Bears take Williams first overall, do you see Daniels possibly going second to the Commanders??
I am still doing some work on what the new brass would like based on historical trends.
My gut says yes - Daniels is very much in play BUT I do know for a fact some in the league want nothing to do with the body type. As crazy as it sounds - it really bothers some.
Wouldn't McCarthy have similar body type concerns? He's pretty skinny himself.
yup - it is a negative on his report
He is 21 though - that does matter a bit when projecting mass/weight gain over the next 3-4 years
Eat a steak every day!
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In comment 16406664 M.S. said:
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JJ McCarthy had Michigan's awesome rushing attack and even more awesome defense?
Drake Maye did not.
UNC had a good rushing attack too, so you can't really go there. Omarion Hampton is a damn good running back for them.
One of my favorite backs in the nation for next year
Yeah, he's a beast. Much better prospect than any of the Michigan backs.
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
There are some interesting prospects, but there are a lot of question marks for next year beyond Sanders...
- Ward is a really good playmaker who can make a lot of throws with different arm angles.
- If Milroe can build on a very underrated 2023, he could be a big riser. Dangerous challenger for QB1...
- Allar drives me crazy as a Penn St fan. But he is a monster physically.
- Ewers can stroke it, but I can a real Jay Cutler feel with him.
- Beck has the size and a nice arm, but, JFC, he was a hard eval with the protection he got last year. Did he get his uniform dirty? ;)
- I keep drinking the Grayson McCall kool-aid, but he seems to have gone backwards the last two years. But he has size, a good arm, and some athleticism. Should be interesting seeing him play for NC State.
- Sy was very bullish on Riley Leonard, but he looked awful last year throwing. Granted, he got hurt and beat to a pulp. But he's another one to watch with a different team (ND)...
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If you have reservations about this year's crop of QBs you will be very disappointed with next year's group.
This complicates the Giant's decision.
Right now it appears that there is one QB Sanders who could break the top four this year.
This can change as it always seems to do, but last year at this time Williams and Maye were thought of as potential high picks.
There are some interesting prospects, but there are a lot of question marks for next year beyond Sanders...
- Ward is a really good playmaker who can make a lot of throws with different arm angles.
- If Milroe can build on a very underrated 2023, he could be a big riser. Dangerous challenger for QB1...
- Allar drives me crazy as a Penn St fan. But he is a monster physically.
- Ewers can stroke it, but I can a real Jay Cutler feel with him.
- Beck has the size and a nice arm, but, JFC, he was a hard eval with the protection he got last year. Did he get his uniform dirty? ;)
- I keep drinking the Grayson McCall kool-aid, but he seems to have gone backwards the last two years. But he has size, a good arm, and some athleticism. Should be interesting seeing him play for NC State.
- Sy was very bullish on Riley Leonard, but he looked awful last year throwing. Granted, he got hurt and beat to a pulp. But he's another one to watch with a different team (ND)...
I think JJ would've been clear-cut #1 qb if he stayed, something to consider if we got him this year.
He's got good bloodlines. His brother Luke was on the UNC basketball team that won the NC in 2017 and was a very good player. And his father played QB for UNC in the '80s.
And he was a 4-star recruit who was committed to Bama at first.
Personally, I think he's made for the next level and doing big things...
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Not sure he is the MAN...
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
Dude I watched alot of JJ this past season
He struck me as a game manager level QB.
Can he grow into a NFL QB???
Maybe
But he is not worth a high first rounder
Coram and Jenkins have better chances to contribute in the NFL
My personal opinion..
I am firmly in the trade back and fill gaps camp.
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In comment 16406690 AROCK1000 said:
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Not sure he is the MAN...
Have you tried forgetting all personal bias toward McCarthy and looking him as a prospect you haven't seen before? I think if you opened your mind, you'd have a different sentiment about him.
Dude I watched alot of JJ this past season
He struck me as a game manager level QB.
Can he grow into a NFL QB???
Maybe
But he is not worth a high first rounder
Coram and Jenkins have better chances to contribute in the NFL
My personal opinion..
I am firmly in the trade back and fill gaps camp.
Ik u did, I did too, but I didn't start seeing the potential of him until I really studied film and stats which you can't do while casually watching the games.
There's no such thing as a perfect QB prospect. You have to decide what you want to deal with. Andrew Luck was close, though.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
Patrick Mahomes averaged 2.3 yards per air pass this season - cause that means he wasn’t thst good either.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
He was the main reason they beat Alabama, he literally carried the offense as their running backs had less than 70 yards rushing in regulation. And as someone mentioned, he was injured so badly they wanted to pull him at halftime of the Maryland game he was in agonizing pain but didn't want to leave the game. He's a former hockey player and is a tough SOB. Against 2 of the best defenses in the country he played great. I don't see the argument here tbh.
857 yards, 126 attempts, 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs/1 INT.
In the national championship game, JJMac was ordinary at best: 10/18, 140 yards, 0/0. He was basically a passenger that night. The defense and run game were the reasons Michigan rolled UDub.
While he did have 3 TDs in the semi-final game v Bama, those TDs were very short throws. The average air distance was 8 yards. On the 38-yarder to Morris, for example, McCarthy threw the ball about ten yards and Morris puts up about 30 yards in YAC.
The game tying TD to Wilson is a two-yard toss. On that same drive, he had a nice pass play to Wilson, who made a leaping grab and then ran an additional 15+ yards.
In the Big Ten game against Iowa, McCarthy was, again, very ordinary. No TDs, < 5 YPA.
He was solid against Ohio State, but god-awful against Maryland.
So, he is a very mixed bag for sure.
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
JJs short TDs are no less impressive than long throws. They represent good decisions and good throws.
I'm good with JJ at 6.
Of the top 4 QBs, Williams is the one that scares me the most.
he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
I get it. I'm all about attributes and projection.
I wouldn't underestimate the skill players McCarthy had at Michigan. Wilson is a very good day two prospect. Loveland looks like a helluva TE. And we know about the backs.
I have dug into McCarthy pretty deeply since it appears he could be in play as a day one prospect. So, I want to say I have watched over 80% of his plays in 2023. The most impressive pieces about his game are his short area burst and agility in the open field. He can gobble up ground quickly and run away from defenders. Those are plus skills for sure.
I'm all over the place with his arm. He can wind up and throw it with pace. But it's not an efficient, snappy delivery like a Rodgers where the ball explodes out of his hand.
JJs short TDs are no less impressive than long throws. They represent good decisions and good throws.
I'm good with JJ at 6.
Of the top 4 QBs, Williams is the one that scares me the most.
daniels scares me more than williams. there are things that scare me about williams but the riley system has translated a few times now. he's not a perfect prospect but it's easy to see a blend of baker, kyler, hurts and there's probably a really good argument he has the best pure skills of the 3.
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he played as a 20 year old in a run first offense. he is a projection based on tools that start with obvious athleticism and plenty of pro throws.
add in the fact that in-game he was successful enough to win big games against top quality opponents.
it is not the perfect resume but neither was a qb with very clear accuracy issues coming out of wyoming.
im not saying mccarthy is allen, but my personal preference would be towards any of the 3 junior entries over the guys who put up better stats but in their 5th/6th years (each with elite wrs).
I get it. I'm all about attributes and projection.
I wouldn't underestimate the skill players McCarthy had at Michigan. Wilson is a very good day two prospect. Loveland looks like a helluva TE. And we know about the backs.
I have dug into McCarthy pretty deeply since it appears he could be in play as a day one prospect. So, I want to say I have watched over 80% of his plays in 2023. The most impressive pieces about his game are his short area burst and agility in the open field. He can gobble up ground quickly and run away from defenders. Those are plus skills for sure.
I'm all over the place with his arm. He can wind up and throw it with pace. But it's not an efficient, snappy delivery like a Rodgers where the ball explodes out of his hand.
the throws that impressed me most were hitting guys in stride with good placement on crossers - the throw to morris vs bama is a really good example. the fadeaway flea flicker was great too.
but remember, 20 years old and still looks like 2 years away from shaving every day. tom brady and drew brees' arms changed a lot over their careers, brady was 23 years old when he got drafted, brees was 22. if jjm stayed in school 2 more years and played as many more games as nix/daniels/penix who knows what he'd be. on the high end it could easily be an obvious 1OA pick. if he went back 1 more year he'd have been in that mix for 2025.