"New" is a relative term since the attached analysis ("How to Value NFL Draft Picks" by Kevin Meers) was generated back in 2011 but nevertheless makes for interesting reading. Don't let the nitty-gritty stats analysis get in your way. What's important is the overall message that can be summarized as follows:
(1) The same Draft Value Chart, created by Jimmy Johnson in the 1980s, is still the one most fans and draft sites use when assessing possible trades.
(2) The problem is that it was based solely on judgement with no data analytic underpinning. For example, the #1 pick has a point value of 3000 and #16 has a value of 1000. Bottom line: there is no historical data to prove that the first pick is indeed 3-times better than the sixteenth. It's arbitrary!
(3) The author's Draft Value Chart utilizes a statistic known as "Career Approximate Value" that, "...compare(s) players across seasons and positions..., which is exactly the objective here." For a deep dive into the CAV: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm#:~:text=Weighted%20Career%20Approximate%20Value&text=For%20each%20player%2C%20the%20following,%2C%20and%20so%20on...
(4) The authors primary finding: "The old system massively over values the earliest picks and significantly undervalues mid-to-late round picks."
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if one team value pick #6 as x, but another team uses a different scale and values pick #6 as y it would be hard to come to terms on trade agreement.
the volume of draft pick trades indicates team generally operate under the same understanding/scale
Agreed. It provides a starting point for negotiations, but if you have a situation like multiple teams angling for NE’s #3 pick, that chart won’t mean diddly.
I've analyzed numerous trades based on the traditional Value Chart.
My overall finding is that for the majority of trades the traditional Value Chart holds up quite well. It's not perfect, but it seems clear to me that numerous teams are using it as a starting point for discussion and do not stray too far from the actual values.
Where it can fall apart is when someone wants to trade up to the #1 pick, as well as #2 and #3. That's when the chart values fall apart. Typically, the team that trades up pays with a lot more points than the chart would suggest.
The value chart works reasonably well once you get down a ways, and the QB "need" variable is out of the equation.
The value chart works reasonably well once you get down a ways, and the QB "need" variable is out of the equation.
Definitely... spot on!