Figured I'd spin up another thread since these conversations have been buried in other ones. The question I've been trying to answer for myself is pretty simple:
what was the supply of good players available in free agency?
Most very good players get extended early, or before free agency starts. These numbers don't include players who were franchised, or signed before free agency began. These are guys other teams had a chance at.
I'm also reluctant to make a strong case about value. The system is built to reward veteran players, while keeping the wages of players with 3 or fewer years of service artificially low. It's also only one year into what is for many players, multi-year deals. We can certainly eyeball some deals and surmise it did/didn't workout last year. But again this more about supply than reward. That said, to focus on players who aren't just filler, I drew the line at: received 3M+ in total guarantees.
Background Numbers:
- 530+ players were signed as free agents in 2023
- 139 received 3M+ in guarantees, that's mostly the players we're looking at
- The average PFF grade for that group in was 64 (which is roughly "good" in their rankings)
- 34 players had grades of 70 or higher
- 89 players had grades of 60 or higher
- 46 players had grades lower than 59
- 12 had a grade lower than 50
For the players with a 70 above, I scrubbed backup QBs and players with fewer than 300 snaps. This is the group I'd describe as having played well, often.
This might tough to read, but here all players regardless of snaps who earned 3M+ in guarantees with PFF grades above 60.
Nice look up.
There's overlap there, I phrased that weirdly.
The total number of guys with grades 60 or higher was 90.
Nice look up.
He's still a fantastic investment, and the type of player for the age you should target. Peppers, God bless him, he's really played well in New England.
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We’re positive additions. That’s pretty solid.
There's overlap there, I phrased that weirdly.
The total number of guys with grades 60 or higher was 90.
Still a good number imo
Not sure what that says. Maybe a ton graded out less than 60...
(Kelce should probably be excluded for his HoF status.)
the group in the chart looks to correctly identify the outliers who produce. a few of them i think were part time players (like oliver behind hockenson?) but if i counted right 17 of them were 10m+ gtd, who id presume had big roles whenever healthy so 17/55 = 31% if im remembering the right number of total players who got 10m+ gtd? i guessed 1 in 4 odds on hitting on a big FA but 1 in 3 is close enough i guess.
seeing love on that list really stings given that hes still not 26 years old and was a captain.
the nyg decisions with their own players are going to be fascinating. mckinney entering his age 25 was an 88 this year but a 58 last year. obviously had some issues it seemed like off the field both years. barkley entering his age 27 was a 70 this year and 77 last year. both are good enough to be on the chart next year, which is probably why we've heard nyg still considering tags for either.
Not sure what that says. Maybe a ton graded out less than 60...
(Kelce should probably be excluded for his HoF status.)
kelce also probably wasnt really on the open market. it was probably philly for a sb run or retire 1 year earlier.
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garnered at 78.7 PFF score? Played every snap? Jabril Peppers had a much higher score? Interesting.
Nice look up.
He's still a fantastic investment, and the type of player for the age you should target. Peppers, God bless him, he's really played well in New England.
Okereke was a great signing, absolutely.
Not sure what that says. Maybe a ton graded out less than 60...
(Kelce should probably be excluded for his HoF status.)
I think it speaks to how hard it is to grade oline on a number scale.
Eric in Li has posted with good insights where OTC formulates a value in dollars for each player. While I think it's imperfect because it weighs rookie contracts and veteran contracts, it's none-the-less directionally helpful.
For OBJ, monetary value for 2023 is 3.7M per OTC, which is way more accurate than 15M.
they spent roughly the same $ on glowinski in 2022 also which was another waste. the frustrating thing is there were some decent options in the guard market in 2022 at the same price point as well but like everything else tied to bobby j they got it wrong.
there's actually 1 more missing player on the list above, which is feliciano. in almost 500 snaps last year he didnt give up any sacks and graded out at an 81. so between peppers, love, feliciano almost 10% of the "good" free agents from last year's class were former nyg, and all of them also made right around what they paid campbell.
i know broken record but getting these calls right in FA arent easy. i remember plenty on the board cheering on letting love walk and "playing hardball" but they let a good player at the right age on a good contract walk.
On the far end there are very few, expensive deals, and then a long tail of low risk, cheap deals. I was curious how this relates to the draft. In this charts I am using AAV and then the Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart.
This shows us something we already know instinctively -- if you're buying in the top 50 of the draft or UFA each year -- you better get the right. Because the cost is disproportionate.
For reference that 50th marker in AAV for an UFA is 7M, and for the 100th is $4.25M. That's probably the area where buying becomes a better value.
Eric in Li has posted with good insights where OTC formulates a value in dollars for each player. While I think it's imperfect because it weighs rookie contracts and veteran contracts, it's none-the-less directionally helpful.
For OBJ, monetary value for 2023 is 3.7M per OTC, which is way more accurate than 15M.
OBJ missed time last year too, only played about 50% snaps most weeks when healthy, and had a few big games sandwiched between no-shows.
the last 3 weeks of the season combined he had 3 catches on 4 targets. heading into week 9 he had 9 total catches on 16 targets.
if there was 1 column id add to the chart its snaps because grade is obviously how you play but some of these guys were playing well in lesser roles. perine was behind javonte and at times jaleel mclaughlin. like i mentioned oliver was the backup to hockenson. obj was usually 3rd option behind andrews/flowers, though i guess he stepped up during the period andrews got hurt.
as you know the OTC methodology has snaps as 1 of the components along with pff data and garden variety raw stats. each of those components has value and in cases like OBJ that model is going to be more accurate than just a PFF grade on limited activity.
Feliciano fell under the 3M guaranteed threshold. I suspect there are other low cost gems in the long tail.
This shows us something we already know instinctively -- if you're buying in the top 50 of the draft or UFA each year -- you better get the right. Because the cost is disproportionate.
way better than i did. genuine thank you.
if i were a gm, i would basically approach UFA every year looking to add 1 "core" player (which would be around $10m+ aav at current prices). id need a really good reason to sign 2 players that expensive from the outside.
then spend aggressively in the 50-150 range on 1-2 year deals like julian love, ashawn robinson, etc.
though i guess that is assuming there are already some players on your roster that are extension worthy. if there arent it doesnt really matter and you are probably screwed already anyway so you may as well spend a lot short term.
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there's actually 1 more missing player on the list above, which is feliciano. in almost 500 snaps last year he didnt give up any sacks and graded out at an 81. so between peppers, love, feliciano almost 10% of the "good" free agents from last year's class were former nyg, and all of them also made right around what they paid campbell.
Feliciano fell under the 3M guaranteed threshold. I suspect there are other low cost gems in the long tail.
duh. and yes that's definitely true. richie james had a 71 grade for nyg in 2022 - there are finds like that every year. i think we all saw enough of feliciano to know his 80 was likely distorted by sample size but i guess allowing 0 sacks is still 0 sacks (he allowed 1 in postseason and his grade there was probably a more reflective 68).
I think for reasons we've discussed over the years, there are very few, very good players available in UFA -- only when a team has a cheaper replacement, the player has personality/health issue, or the team is in irreconcilable cap trouble.
I think that supply side is roughly the same as first round draft picks, or less. It's not an aisle I want the team depending on, it's high cost, high risk.
I think for reasons we've discussed over the years, there are very few, very good players available in UFA -- only when a team has a cheaper replacement, the player has personality/health issue, or the team is in irreconcilable cap trouble.
I think that supply side is roughly the same as first round draft picks, or less. It's not an aisle I want the team depending on, it's high cost, high risk.
and the thing that sucks most is even in the 30% of the time it looks like you got it right, like say martinez/bradberry, it can still go wrong with 1 unlucky injury or faster than expected regression. nate solder actually had a 76 grade in all 16 games his first year as nyg. it is just a very low odds game with land mines everywhere.
that's why ive always generally been fine with tagging known quantities like leonard williams or barkley. the only downside is any relationship friction (especially 2nd tag). i dont think barkley would play on the tag this year.
For OBJ, monetary value for 2023 is 3.7M per OTC, which is way more accurate than 15M.
Right. The remaining $11.3m is still on Baltimore's books. Pay me now, pay me later.