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| WBG84 @WBG84 "The headliner of the running back free agent class is New York Giants star Saquon Barkley, who has targeted the Texans as his top potential destination and has been communicating with Stroud, per league sources." - @AaronWilson_NFL #NYGiants #Texans |
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1. if you simply had a choice of 1 player or the other, cap considerations aside since they are likely comparable, is the answer not obvious?
The "cap considerations aside" in this context reads to me like asking if I would keep Barkley for a $7M incremental cap hit in 2024 with no guaranteed 2025 cap obligations or liability, and to that I'd personally answer yes.
i expect that a barkley 2024 cap hit would be close to the waller saved $ delta and the barkley 2025 cap hit would be less than wallers by more than that difference (id imagine his 2 year cap hits total around 22m vs waller 29.5m). there would obviously be more guaranteed money to barkley which would make that 2nd year effectively guaranteed but that can be structured to where he's as tradeable as he was this year. either year you cut waller there is dead$ (7.4m this year, 5m next year, plus the 12m+ or so non-gtd salary he'd collect this year).
i put cap considerations aside because i think those 2 scenarios aren't that different (one side is cheaper AAV the other side less gtd - neither contract would be prohibitive given nyg cap situation so i think you'd just want to pick whichever was the preferable player). if you keep waller this year and cut him next year, that's $5m of cap space lost so maybe that's 5m-7m less than barkley's year 2 would cost?
we aren't deciding anything.
the new regime is deciding. put yourself in their shoes, which do you think they value more, their own first hand time with the player or whatever happened when they werent there?
when/if you ask(or asked) a partner to marry you, would you base that decision on the years you spent together or prior years when they were with someone else?
Thanks, I didn’t know we aren’t deciding anything.
If you’ve spent the last year and half in a disappointing marriage are you going to spend more money to hope it turns around just because the first couple of months were really good?
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2. assuming the most common answer is "dump both of them" because people generally lash out at rhetorical questions, why aren't there multiple threads and 100s of comments each day wanting waller gone?
Barkley was the #2 pick in the draft. A home-grown product with enormous expectations who happens to play one of the most controversial positions in the NFL.
So, it should come as no surprise he gets the attention, especially after last season's drama with the FT.
didnt he report on time while taylor/jacobs held out?
Barkley was the #2 pick in the draft. A home-grown product with enormous expectations who happens to play one of the most controversial positions in the NFL.
So, it should come as no surprise he gets the attention, especially after last season's drama with the FT.
didnt he report on time while taylor/jacobs held out?
Yes.
But what does that have to do with your question about Barkley v Waller?
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In comment 16412377 Eric on Li said:
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1. if you simply had a choice of 1 player or the other, cap considerations aside since they are likely comparable, is the answer not obvious?
The "cap considerations aside" in this context reads to me like asking if I would keep Barkley for a $7M incremental cap hit in 2024 with no guaranteed 2025 cap obligations or liability, and to that I'd personally answer yes.
i expect that a barkley 2024 cap hit would be close to the waller saved $ delta and the barkley 2025 cap hit would be less than wallers by more than that difference (id imagine his 2 year cap hits total around 22m vs waller 29.5m). there would obviously be more guaranteed money to barkley which would make that 2nd year effectively guaranteed but that can be structured to where he's as tradeable as he was this year. either year you cut waller there is dead$ (7.4m this year, 5m next year, plus the 12m+ or so non-gtd salary he'd collect this year).
i put cap considerations aside because i think those 2 scenarios aren't that different (one side is cheaper AAV the other side less gtd - neither contract would be prohibitive given nyg cap situation so i think you'd just want to pick whichever was the preferable player). if you keep waller this year and cut him next year, that's $5m of cap space lost so maybe that's 5m-7m less than barkley's year 2 would cost?
We're already on the hook for Waller though, so the only way to realistically put cap considerations aside would be to ask if Barkley is worth retaining for precisely the dollar-to-dollar cost of terminating Waller's contract, right?
Ironically, it could be be argued that the guaranteed money attached to Waller's contract right now is only there in part due to the Giants' failure to reach a multi-year contract agreement with Barkley last year.
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we aren't deciding anything.
the new regime is deciding. put yourself in their shoes, which do you think they value more, their own first hand time with the player or whatever happened when they werent there?
when/if you ask(or asked) a partner to marry you, would you base that decision on the years you spent together or prior years when they were with someone else?
Thanks, I didn’t know we aren’t deciding anything.
If you’ve spent the last year and half in a disappointing marriage are you going to spend more money to hope it turns around just because the first couple of months were really good?
you are labeling the good 2 months vs the rest on 1 stat. he had a midseason slump in 2022 after the 40 carries vs houston but from the washington win on played well. his pff grade was comparable both years. tds same both years (even w 2 fewer games). same with big plays (20+ yards). same with rush yards over expected. both years graded at the top of pass pro with near the most pass pro snaps among rbs.
the offense was worse because they got worse qb play but most of his production was the same. his 3.9 ypc you are basing your argument around was still more than 1 yard per carry better than both his backups. even missing the 3 games he had the 10th most rush yards over expectation league wide.
those are all the reasons his contract projection is what it is and why he's ranked in the top 5-10 free agents that wont get tagged on most lists - apart from anything related to nyg.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing/2023/REG/all#ryoe - ( New Window )
Our OL can't block, we have no QB, and our passing game is a joke. The defense puts a spy or two on Barkley who follows him wherever he goes. Its an impossible situation, and the Giants know this because they try to run plays off of faking to Barkley (to draw the D to him). Raw stats are meaningless without context. No RB is going to succeed here. Put him on a team with a legitimate passing game that the D has to worry about, and an OL that can hold a block for a second or two, and it becomes much easier
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Barkley was the #2 pick in the draft. A home-grown product with enormous expectations who happens to play one of the most controversial positions in the NFL.
So, it should come as no surprise he gets the attention, especially after last season's drama with the FT.
didnt he report on time while taylor/jacobs held out?
Yes.
But what does that have to do with your question about Barkley v Waller?
i dont think it has anything to do with anything, which is why i didnt bring it up (you did)?
the question about barkley/waller was simply who anyone would rather have on the field going forward putting contracts aside since i see both costs as similar.
i dont think it has anything to do with anything, which is why i didnt bring it up (you did)?
the question about barkley/waller was simply who anyone would rather have on the field going forward putting contracts aside since i see both costs as similar.
I brought up Jacobs and Taylor holding out...??
You seem like a smart guy, but sometimes you really are hard to follow.
This is what you wrote:
And that was what I responded to.
We're already on the hook for Waller though
i think this is where there's a subtle misunderstanding of how the cap works as a practical thing when base salary is "not guaranteed". guaranteed or non-guaranteed doesnt matter IF it gets paid. then its all the same. the question waller vs barkley was who would you rather have, meaning to choose waller is to not cut him and pay him the non-guaranteed $ due this year.
waller currently carries 7.5m dead$. if cut right now that's where the story stops.
but if NOT cut (which again, was the question) this year waller is due 10.5m base plus another 1.5m of bonuses. so if you wait to cut waller until next year his 2 years worth of cap hits will total 18m-19.5m depending on how much of the bonuses he earns. barkley's first 2 year cap hits will prob be a little more than that but not by much without much dead money beyond.
7.5m of waller is already sunk cost so the delta is bigger when you consider that but you are also getting 2 years of barkley vs 1 for waller and paying for 1 of those 2 barkley years with wallers non-guaranteed $ this year.
i see keeping waller and committing a fresh $10.5-12m to him as a worse version of throwing good $ after bad than barkley and its my belief that most big spends are choosing from the least bad options.
You’re going to pay $13 million a year for a 27 year old running back in case the performance was because of the oline and the QB? Cmon man get out of the fantasy.
Barkley has been healthy for two of his six years. He hasn’t been elite in a year and a half. He hasn’t made a big enough impact on winning, and making the Giants a better team. He’s heading toward the downside of his career. As it currently stands there’s a good chance the Giants aren’t going to be good again next year, and who knows what age 28 and 29 seasons are going to bring for Barkley.
The Giants have been bad with Saqoun, and if they’re bad without him, so what? There’s zero logic to signing him to a multi year contract. Just sign a stop gap and draft a rookie if the opportunity presents itself.
Just because your favorite internet people project a value doesn’t mean it’s the right move to sign them to the contract.
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...why aren't there multiple threads and 100s of comments each day wanting waller gone?
And that was what I responded to.
you brought up the barkley ft drama as the reason people want him gone more than waller when barkley reported and didnt miss any of camp.
dont you think that's kind of a silly reason when waller has a contract that takes up more cap room than barkley's is projected to while being the more injured/less productive/5 years older player?
But this isn't about getting better. It's about wanting to keep a fan favorite. That's a perfectly valid approach to being a fan.
But so is wanting to build a winning team. Paying Barkley, Henry, or any other RB isn't the way to do that.
Take the Barkley money and invest it in the OL and/or DL. That's a better use of money in today's NFL.
Let Barkley go somewhere else. It will be evident early that he won't be missed.
You’re going to pay $13 million a year for a 27 year old running back in case the performance was because of the oline and the QB? Cmon man get out of the fantasy.
my question was if anyone thinks it's a better use of cap space to pay a 32 year old tight end who has missed 4x as many games as barkley the last 2 years 15m against the cap the next 2 years, including 11-13m new cash per year? for all the hot air about barkley i think that's the worse use of $ personally.
But this isn't about getting better. It's about wanting to keep a fan favorite. That's a perfectly valid approach to being a fan.
But so is wanting to build a winning team. Paying Barkley, Henry, or any other RB isn't the way to do that.
Take the Barkley money and invest it in the OL and/or DL. That's a better use of money in today's NFL.
Let Barkley go somewhere else. It will be evident early that he won't be missed.
if henry costs meaningfully less than barkley id have no issue with that. he has almost twice as many carries in his career and is 2 years older, so that's the only risk but if it means he comes at a discount that would be fine with me. no issue buying really low on ekeler off a down year either.
expensive vets are all flawed in some way or they wouldnt be available in the first place. christian's thread yesterday articulated it better than ive been able to (linked below). last year the same people who criticized deandre hopkins as washed up (he wasnt) and injury prone (he wasnt) were jumping for joy when they traded for waller because it was out of nowhere so nobody had time to tear it to shreds before it happened. acquiring expensive veterans is like entering the casino. doesnt matter what game you choose to play, dont walk in money you arent prepared to lose.
Another Look at NFL Free Agency in 2023 - ( New Window )
Didn’t love the DW trade but it was an understandable gamble. The injury part played out as expected. I’m leaning towards hoping he is cut before next year but don’t have a good sense what JS is gonna do.
As far as Barkley, I have no problem admitting I see both Jones and Barkley through Gettleman colored glasses. But now I just don't like the odds they will be successful players over the next year or two.
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You’re going to pay $13 million a year for a 27 year old running back in case the performance was because of the oline and the QB? Cmon man get out of the fantasy.
my question was if anyone thinks it's a better use of cap space to pay a 32 year old tight end who has missed 4x as many games as barkley the last 2 years 15m against the cap the next 2 years, including 11-13m new cash per year? for all the hot air about barkley i think that's the worse use of $ personally.
They should cut Waller too, not sure how that’s relevant to you trying to explain why signing Barkley is good
As for drafting a rookie, both sides are valid. People tend to make it really easy to find the gems some other teams do while dismissing our utter failure at it over the past decade, and all the other teams in the same boat. This time last year Dameon Pierce was a steal, then he became a liability and now it looks like they want a clear upgrade.
The Giants have a number of decisions to make on their existing roster. But they'll need to make the big rock decisions about the guys who are not first.
Yea it would be great to sign Barkley for $8 million, but that’s not going to happen, so let’s deal in reality and all my posts are based off of the projected contract value that Eric keeps posting.
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In comment 16412459 ajr2456 said:
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You’re going to pay $13 million a year for a 27 year old running back in case the performance was because of the oline and the QB? Cmon man get out of the fantasy.
my question was if anyone thinks it's a better use of cap space to pay a 32 year old tight end who has missed 4x as many games as barkley the last 2 years 15m against the cap the next 2 years, including 11-13m new cash per year? for all the hot air about barkley i think that's the worse use of $ personally.
They should cut Waller too, not sure how that’s relevant to you trying to explain why signing Barkley is good
it's not - the point was nobody is as emotional about cutting waller, which is the more obvious move.
if you do move on from both of them i am curious which better players everyone has targeted to replace them.
it's not - the point was nobody is as emotional about cutting waller, which is the more obvious move.
if you do move on from both of them i am curious which better players everyone has targeted to replace them.
If the Giants dont get their QB at 6 for whatever reason, I am all for drafting Bowers in the first and a WR in the 2nd round.
Then maybe look at a Pratt, Rattler later in the 3rd. Running back? Sign one of the guys on the cheap.
Zach Moss/Trey Benson or Corum combo at RB. Gerald Everett at $8 million a year on a three year deal is probably better than Waller on his contract.
If Waller is the perennially injured part-time players he's proven to be, I'd invest the 50M in cap holds he now represents over the three years as *part* of the investment in a UFA WR.
Zach Moss/Trey Benson or Corum combo at RB. Gerald Everett at $8 million a year on a three year deal is probably better than Waller on his contract.
Yuck to Everett. But I see your point.
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I’m sure if you took a poll on Waller there’d be a good amount who want to cut him.
Zach Moss/Trey Benson or Corum combo at RB. Gerald Everett at $8 million a year on a three year deal is probably better than Waller on his contract.
Yuck to Everett. But I see your point.
The only tight end that intrigues me is Schultz but I can’t see Houston letting him walk
As for drafting a rookie, both sides are valid. People tend to make it really easy to find the gems some other teams do while dismissing our utter failure at it over the past decade, and all the other teams in the same boat. This time last year Dameon Pierce was a steal, then he became a liability and now it looks like they want a clear upgrade.
correct on both.
if barkley is willing to extend reasonably, which i view his current projection as since it's essentially a 2 year 22m deal, id rather do that than take a lesser player like swift and make him this year's miles sanders (who got essentially a 2 year 14m deal in a 13% lower cap). id definitely pay barkley as opposed to waller given the costs are comparable - even though those are 2 independent decisions of each other.
if barkley wont extend reasonably then you let him test the market. id still expect them to sign some version of a veteran RB, which will probably cost in the range of the sanders deal bc nobody is just going to hope for the best with a day 3 pick 2 months ahead of the draft. if eric gray was kyren williams the situation would be different, but he's not so they are going to have to put some money into the position to buy time to find a rookie scale replacement.
If Waller is the perennially injured part-time players he's proven to be, I'd invest the 50M in cap holds he now represents over the three years as *part* of the investment in a UFA WR.
what UFA WR do you see on the market you like? pls dont type gabe davis.
The only tight end that intrigues me is Schultz but I can’t see Houston letting him walk
Agreed. And Schultz may ask for too much as well. Thats why I am not totally against Bowers if we dont get a QB at 6.
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If Barkley is the 69 rush yards per game back he was last year, I'd take my chances on a day 2 rookie and a tier 2 UFA.
If Waller is the perennially injured part-time players he's proven to be, I'd invest the 50M in cap holds he now represents over the three years as *part* of the investment in a UFA WR.
what UFA WR do you see on the market you like? pls dont type gabe davis.
I think you have to wait and see what Ridley and Pittman get first.
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The only tight end that intrigues me is Schultz but I can’t see Houston letting him walk
Agreed. And Schultz may ask for too much as well. Thats why I am not totally against Bowers if we dont get a QB at 6.
i dont believe in throw the remote picks, but any 1st round TE is as close as i can get to that, especially top 10. the only TE in the NFL good enough to be worth a first round pick is Kelce. Maybe Andrews. so start with the fact that it is rare to get elite production from the position.
then add in the bust rate - here's the last decade of first round tight ends - at the times i wanted eifer, ebron, and howard so call it learning from experience because as it turns out over a full decade it's possible engram was the 2nd or 3rd best TE picked in the first round. he may even have an argument over hockenson.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
No. 4 overall, 2021
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
No. 8, 2019
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
No. 20, 2019
Hayden Hurst, Baltimore Ravens
No. 25, 2018
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No. 19, 2017
Evan Engram, New York Giants
No. 23, 2017
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
No. 29, 2017
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions
No. 10, 2014
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
No. 21, 2013
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In comment 16412681 christian said:
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If Barkley is the 69 rush yards per game back he was last year, I'd take my chances on a day 2 rookie and a tier 2 UFA.
If Waller is the perennially injured part-time players he's proven to be, I'd invest the 50M in cap holds he now represents over the three years as *part* of the investment in a UFA WR.
what UFA WR do you see on the market you like? pls dont type gabe davis.
I think you have to wait and see what Ridley and Pittman get first.
pittman is getting tagged or extended.
if your offering odds on barkley producing more than sanders did in 2023 in 2024 im all ears and happy to take them.
Fair.
But I am in the mindset that a Bowers and maybe Worthy/Coleman/Leggete in the second round can be very exciting for the future. We all want that big time passing game. The more weapons the better.
If Waller is the perennially injured part-time players he's proven to be, I'd invest the 50M in cap holds he now represents over the three years as *part* of the investment in a UFA WR.
what UFA WR do you see on the market you like? pls dont type gabe davis.
The WR I'd keep an eye on is Ridley, but if the UFA market spirals, then my preference would be a TE like Schultz.
More than anything, I'm way more bullish on the Giants pass catchers than most. I don't think there is a huge vacuum to fill if Waller is cut.
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if your offering odds on barkley producing more than sanders did in 2023 in 2024 im all ears and happy to take them.
Barkley may already be heading that way. Barkley’s been a 3.9 YPC back since midway through 2022. Sanders averaged 3.3 YPC last year, that’s an 140 yard difference over Barkley’s 247 carries.
The same excuses that were made for Barkley earlier in the thread (oline, QB) apply to Sanders too.
Even if the oline and QB improve, is it worth banking $22-$30 million on an oft injured RB to stay healthy and reclaim his elite production through age 27-30? Or is it a better idea to spend half that on a player who has performed, albeit on a small sample size, on some bad offensive lines in Detroit?
If Barkley and Swift were signing for the same contract, the obvious answer would be Barkley. However the price difference is going to be at least 50% if not more.
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If Barkley is the 69 rush yards per game back he was last year, I'd take my chances on a day 2 rookie and a tier 2 UFA.
If Waller is the perennially injured part-time players he's proven to be, I'd invest the 50M in cap holds he now represents over the three years as *part* of the investment in a UFA WR.
what UFA WR do you see on the market you like? pls dont type gabe davis.
The WR I'd keep an eye on is Ridley, but if the UFA market spirals, then my preference would be a TE like Schultz.
More than anything, I'm way more bullish on the Giants pass catchers than most. I don't think there is a huge vacuum to fill if Waller is cut.
Agreed. There’s no rush to immediately replace Waller, he didn’t bring much to the table last year
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If Barkley is the 69 rush yards per game back he was last year, I'd take my chances on a day 2 rookie and a tier 2 UFA.
If Waller is the perennially injured part-time players he's proven to be, I'd invest the 50M in cap holds he now represents over the three years as *part* of the investment in a UFA WR.
what UFA WR do you see on the market you like? pls dont type gabe davis.
The WR I'd keep an eye on is Ridley, but if the UFA market spirals, then my preference would be a TE like Schultz.
More than anything, I'm way more bullish on the Giants pass catchers than most. I don't think there is a huge vacuum to fill if Waller is cut.
i agree about waller. bellinger is a solid player so they have part of the answer.
ridley is ironically projected to get the same contract waller signed a few years ago (3x51m, 30m gtd). id be ok with that but id also bet the over.
I imagine 3/60 with a little more than half guaranteed is a closer target.
I tend to agree. But I think Bowers is one of the top three players in this draft. For two years, he's been catching balls and literally running away from SEC DBs like he's in the Conference USA. He runs like a gazelle.