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Decision time - which premium FA are you choosing?

Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 10:36 am
like most FA classes there are about a dozen players on the market who look likely to get premium multi-year contracts (3-4 years or more). below i've compared them to UFA contracts from the last 2 offseasons and also included their projected AAV.

it is my view that most roster decisions are top down so i would guess a few of these players are the giant's plan A's and in less than 1 week, 1 of them is in blue.

Quote:
1. Chris Jones - entering age 30 season
projected at 30m aav * 4 years (80m gtd)
comparable to von miller signing in BUF for 6x120m, with 50m gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 5.2m

2. Christian Wilkins - entering age 28 season
projected at 25 aav * 4 years (67.5m gtd)
comparable to hargave signing in SF for 4x84m, with 40m gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 6.6m

3. Danielle Hunter - entering age 29 season
projected at 22m aav * 3 years (40m gtd)
the best recent comp is probably also Von Miller's deal in BUF, though id guess it's shorter and higher AAV

4. Kendall Fuller - entering age 29 season
projected at 13m * 3 years (25m gtd)
comparable to bradberry last year in PHI, 3x38m with 20m gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 3m

5. Bryce Huff - entering age 26 season
projected at 17m * 3 years (25m gtd)
comparable to zach allen in DEN, 3x48m with 33 gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 6m

6. Patrick Queen - entering age 25 season
projected at 18m * 4 years (50m gtd)
comparable to treamine edmunds in CHI, 4x72m, 50m gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 14.6m

7. Kevin Dotson - entering age 27 season
projected at 15m * 4 years (36m gtd)
comparable to ben powers in DEN, 4x52m, 29m gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 5.2m

8. Calvin Ridley - entering age 29 season
projected at 18.5m * 3 years (33m gtd)
comparable to christian kirk in JAX, 4x72m, 37m gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 7.5m

9. Mike Onwenu - entering age 26 season
projected at 14.5m * 4 years (33m gtd)
i think his comparable is higher bc he's played a lot of RT so im taking the over on his projection big time, i think it will be closer to Mike McGlinchey 5x87m in DEN, 50m gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 6m

10. Robert Hunt - entering age 28 season
projected at 17.5m * 4 years (42m gtd)
comparable to ben powers in DEN, 4x52m, 29m gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 5.2m

11. Jonathan Greenard - entering age 27 season
projected at 19m * 4 years (53m gtd)
comparable to zach allen in DEN, 3x48m with 33 gtd, his year 1 cap hit was 6m


it is possible they add 2 but that doesn't usually work out great because the hit rate is only about 30% for free agents on this level. so while it's pretty easily doable to add 2 from a cap standpoint you are doing so at your own risk. the more prudent strategy would probably be whichever player you like best from the list above and then smaller scale signings to fill depth elsewhere.

also even if they want 2 from the above list, these are guys that are going to have multiple teams bidding, most of whom will be the 13 teams with more cap space than nyg. denver added 3 of the top 13 last year, each are listed as comps above (powers, mcglinchey, allen) so it's not impossible. but that's a pretty good example of the pitfalls of spending big. a year later Allen is probably the only signing of the 3 that looks good.

so who's your guy?
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the more I really think about it  
djm : 3/7/2024 10:53 am : link
trying to be pragmatic while appreciating what Schoen may want to do here, I can get behind the approach of letting Barkley walk, even if the 12 million really isn't THAT much for a good impact player. The facts are we have lost with BArkley and while that can't all be blamed on the best player, it still doesn't change things. And going a step further, it's more likely you find a good NFL RB in rounds 2-3 of a draft compared to finding a good edge or WR in that same space. And deeper still, you're probably better off spending the money on the premium positions like edge or WR or using that money to fix a positional crisis like guard.

I don't love the idea of breaking the bank for a position like WR when the draft seems loaded at WR and I don't think Schoen throws a mint at a player like Calvin Ridley. I think he goes after edge (hunter seems like a good choice) and guard swing tackle. Dotson and or the dude from NE seem like targets.

And with all that said about the positional value stuff, if Schoen truly wants to implement this strategy and process here, he needs to be allowed a lot of rope and patience.

Go get the guard and edge. Draft a QB if he's there. Draft BPA everywhere else but we're gonna need a RB if BArk leaves.
Onwenu would be my #1 target,  
Section331 : 3/7/2024 10:54 am : link
BUT I think he’s going to be overpaid by someone, and I hope it’s not us. I’d rather go for Eluemunor from LV, even if he’s a few years older. Like Onwenu, he can play both G and T, and I think that flexibility is important if they decide to kick Neal inside.

I’m probably an outlier on this, but I am not a fan of Ridley. He excelled in ATL when he had Julio Jones lining up alongside of him, but he was not very good in Jax. I also don’t think the Giants will (or should) go big game hunting this year. Next year is a(nother) rebuilding year, draft well, play the young guys, and save your FA bullets for 2025.
You get a G and a G/T  
jvm52106 : 3/7/2024 10:55 am : link
swingman, add a VET to the DB's- CB or S (no, you do NOT over pay for Xman), you get a utility RB and an Edge guy.
RE: Wouldn't mind reuniting Wilkins with Lawrence  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 10:55 am : link
In comment 16419904 jeff57 said:
Quote:
But that's too much money.


idk, they dont have any $ at edge right now so having 2 two way DL is appealing to me for same reasons it was with williams. they won a national championship together for a reason. wilkins hasnt missed any games as a pro. its as close to adding another dex as you can get.

with the way sf, bal, kc defenses took them as far as they did last year im tempted to try to build that unit into elite. sf has a lot of $ on their dl even aside from bosa (armstead, hargrave).
Wilkins at DE  
djm : 3/7/2024 10:56 am : link
wouldn't bother me either. Turn the DL into a dominant unit. You win with dominant units. Not pretty ones.
...  
christian : 3/7/2024 10:57 am : link
If they can put the Waller blunder to bed, I vote Ridley and Onwenu.
Onwenu  
logman : 3/7/2024 10:58 am : link
and Huff

Anything after that is gravy
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 11:00 am : link
In comment 16419933 christian said:
Quote:
If they can put the Waller blunder to bed, I vote Ridley and Onwenu.


ridley is an interesting choice. his flashes are close to elite. if any team feels that way though i think he ends up closer to 100m.

so i think id go trenches first.
I'd group two in the same area  
Go Terps : 3/7/2024 11:03 am : link
Two OL or two DL. OL first. Onwenu and Hunt, Huff and Greenard, etc.
RE: I’m paying Bryce Huff  
Amtoft : 3/7/2024 11:04 am : link
In comment 16419905 bigblue12 said:
Quote:
and an O lineman


Bryce Huff is a part time pass rusher... he can't play the run at all... he will cost a fortune... Pass
If the price is right...  
Amtoft : 3/7/2024 11:05 am : link
I wouldn't mind Leo back. He loves playing with Dex.
 
christian : 3/7/2024 11:08 am : link
I think age comes into play with Ridley.

Even Adams and Hill have no real guarantees after their age 32 season.

He could definitely draw 100M topline, but the back 40 would probably be a paper tiger.
Onwenu is a good not great player who  
charles355 : 3/7/2024 11:10 am : link
will be paid as an amazing player

...
Onwenu...  
Capt. Don : 3/7/2024 11:12 am : link
.
RE: I'd group two in the same area  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 11:13 am : link
In comment 16419948 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Two OL or two DL. OL first. Onwenu and Hunt, Huff and Greenard, etc.


i agree theoretically but i think id go wilkins or hunter over huff or greenard (who has had a bunch of injury issues going back to college). huff is tempting especially factoring in age but id rather spend a little more to go up a class of player. wilkins and hunter are pro bowl/all pro types.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 11:15 am : link
In comment 16419963 christian said:
Quote:
I think age comes into play with Ridley.

Even Adams and Hill have no real guarantees after their age 32 season.

He could definitely draw 100M topline, but the back 40 would probably be a paper tiger.


probably but the ~60m front end would be pretty steep. a 4x85m with more than half guaranteed wouldn't surprise me. in fact i expect him to easily get past kirk's 4x72m because he is a much more talented player.
Huff is a very good player...  
bw in dc : 3/7/2024 11:17 am : link
Wonder if he would fit the new system for Bowen.

I'd take any of the guards.

Zero interest in a high priced safety or WR.
The focus of the off-season  
JFIB : 3/7/2024 11:17 am : link
Or at least the priority has to be fix the O-line. We need two Guards at a minimum. Onwenu may be too rich for our blood if we intend to sign two so He's likely out. Hopefully Bricillo has insight, and we can find two affordable additions.
If the Jonan Jackson and Danielle Hunter stuff is real  
Rjanyg : 3/7/2024 11:18 am : link
Then I would go there and maybe sign Ezra Cleveland as well. Could play Guard and Tackle.
None.  
AcidTest : 3/7/2024 11:23 am : link
I'd pass on all of them and find players in the second wave of FA that don't count against the comp pick formula. This team has a ton of holes. A few expensive FAs will not make us Super Bowl contenders. Build the team through the draft and lower-priced FAs. It's up to the FO and the scouts to find those players. If they can't, then they should be fired.
RE: None.  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 11:26 am : link
In comment 16419992 AcidTest said:
Quote:
I'd pass on all of them and find players in the second wave of FA that don't count against the comp pick formula. This team has a ton of holes. A few expensive FAs will not make us Super Bowl contenders. Build the team through the draft and lower-priced FAs. It's up to the FO and the scouts to find those players. If they can't, then they should be fired.


my head says that's the smart thing to do, but it would be a reasonably big departure from what they did last year. they have more spending power in FA this year and their most successful signing (okereke) was their biggest. so id be kind of surprised if they didnt try to find "another okereke" this year.

their midlevel signings have been pretty meh (campbell, glowinski, felciano, robinson, etc).
2 I find intriguing  
bc4life : 3/7/2024 11:32 am : link
Brock Wright Detroit Lions TE

John Simpson - Guard - Ravens
I can't  
Amtoft : 3/7/2024 11:32 am : link
believe so many people want Huff... Good pass rusher, can't play the run. Give me Danielle Hunter if we are paying 18 mil a year for Huff spend 4-5 more and get the guy who is great again the run and a stud pass rusher.
Might bring back Bredeson too  
bc4life : 3/7/2024 11:33 am : link
based on new OL Coach's assessment
There are some good  
bc4life : 3/7/2024 11:34 am : link
edge rushers in the draft and they'd be a lot cheaper.

RE: None.  
M.S. : 3/7/2024 11:36 am : link
In comment 16419992 AcidTest said:
Quote:
I'd pass on all of them and find players in the second wave of FA that don't count against the comp pick formula. This team has a ton of holes. A few expensive FAs will not make us Super Bowl contenders. Build the team through the draft and lower-priced FAs. It's up to the FO and the scouts to find those players. If they can't, then they should be fired.

Dead on!
Hunter will be cost prohibitive IMO  
bc4life : 3/7/2024 11:42 am : link
What about Bryce Huff?
L'J  
Ron Johnson : 3/7/2024 11:42 am : link
Sneed
Jonah Jackson  
mittenedman : 3/7/2024 11:44 am : link
depending on the injury situation.
I think expectations are too high on this thread  
SirYesSir : 3/7/2024 11:49 am : link
giants aren't signing 2 of the top 15 or 20 FA's. They don't have the money or the appeal for that
Hunter  
Toth029 : 3/7/2024 11:55 am : link
Is the best pure pass rusher of all of the FA's but will come with a price. For a structured 3 year deal, it can work.

I got to imagine they also target OG and use the other job for competition between Ezeudu, McKethan, and others.
RE: L'J  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 11:56 am : link
In comment 16420034 Ron Johnson said:
Quote:
Sneed


he's tagged, what are you trading for him? next year's #1? what if that's needed to move up this year?
RE: I think expectations are too high on this thread  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 11:58 am : link
In comment 16420048 SirYesSir said:
Quote:
giants aren't signing 2 of the top 15 or 20 FA's. They don't have the money or the appeal for that


they have the money and the money is 99% of the appeal for any FA. i agree they probably arent signing 2 but if they want to it's doable.
Dotson and Onwenu  
barens : 3/7/2024 11:59 am : link
if possible. I'm sure both are unlikely, but it would free up the draft a bit.
RE: Wilkins at DE  
djm : 3/7/2024 11:59 am : link
In comment 16419931 djm said:
Quote:
wouldn't bother me either. Turn the DL into a dominant unit. You win with dominant units. Not pretty ones.


Not pretty good ones. Pretty ones definitely won't do either.
I can't argue with the Onwenu logic though.  
mittenedman : 3/7/2024 12:01 pm : link
What a luxury having this guy available if Neal flops at RT. (Either with his play or continuing to get injured.)
OL, OL, OL  
BillT : 3/7/2024 12:02 pm : link
Get that done. Now! And if that's all they get done I'm fine with that. Then maybe something else. Not sure what but a position that has FA value. TE maybe?
RE: RE: L'J  
Ron Johnson : 3/7/2024 12:04 pm : link
In comment 16420063 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16420034 Ron Johnson said:


Quote:


Sneed



he's tagged, what are you trading for him? next year's #1? what if that's needed to move up this year?


I missed the tag. smart move by the Chiefs
The 25th PFF  
Amtoft : 3/7/2024 12:04 pm : link
ranked OG should be available for pretty cheap also.
I wouldn't sign any of them.  
BH28 : 3/7/2024 12:09 pm : link
I think the Giants should concentrate on solid depth signings this offseason, put together a plan at QB and eye next offseason to take some swings at premium FAs.
RE: The 25th PFF  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 12:15 pm : link
In comment 16420087 Amtoft said:
Quote:
ranked OG should be available for pretty cheap also.


the 25th ranked guard allowed the 5th most sacks only playing half the season. if you dig into his "rank" even in limited time he was one of the worst guards in pass pro. his run blocking graded well, which pulled up his overall "rank".

id be focused on pass pro > run blocking for any OL added. the one year onwenu played RG his pass blocking was excellent. notable i guess that 4 guys in this top 15 are FA's this year.

onwenu was the 3rd best overall guard this season as well, 1 spot ahead of thuney who was in his first year of a 5x80m which is another good comp for onwenu.

Yeah, Onweno and Huff  
PatersonPlank : 3/7/2024 12:18 pm : link
I'd also take back Leo W if the price was right
RE: RE: I think expectations are too high on this thread  
Section331 : 3/7/2024 12:59 pm : link
In comment 16420067 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16420048 SirYesSir said:


Quote:


giants aren't signing 2 of the top 15 or 20 FA's. They don't have the money or the appeal for that



they have the money and the money is 99% of the appeal for any FA. i agree they probably arent signing 2 but if they want to it's doable.


True, but for money to be an appeal, it’s going to have be more than a contending team is willing to pay. Money being equal, is Hunter signing with NYG or, say, SF? As I said earlier, I don’t think the Giants will, or should, go big game hunting this year. Get a good draft, play the kids, save your FA bullets for 2025, when we’re (hopefully) ready to contend.
RE: There are some good  
Rjanyg : 3/7/2024 1:29 pm : link
In comment 16420016 bc4life said:
Quote:
edge rushers in the draft and they'd be a lot cheaper.


Braswell from Bama in round 2 @ 47
Onwenu makes sense on many levels  
Biteymax22 : 3/7/2024 1:43 pm : link
First, we need to upgrade guard, badly...

Second, we need someone who can play RT if Neal fails there, they could switch if this happens and we want to try Neal at guard

Third, he's at that "ascending player" age

Forth and finally, he's played for our OL coach and has success within his blocking schemes. There won't be a "well he's not good her because we ask him to do different things"
RE: RE: RE: I think expectations are too high on this thread  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 2:11 pm : link
In comment 16420172 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 16420067 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16420048 SirYesSir said:


Quote:


giants aren't signing 2 of the top 15 or 20 FA's. They don't have the money or the appeal for that



they have the money and the money is 99% of the appeal for any FA. i agree they probably arent signing 2 but if they want to it's doable.



True, but for money to be an appeal, it’s going to have be more than a contending team is willing to pay. Money being equal, is Hunter signing with NYG or, say, SF? As I said earlier, I don’t think the Giants will, or should, go big game hunting this year. Get a good draft, play the kids, save your FA bullets for 2025, when we’re (hopefully) ready to contend.


contending teams tend to be the teams without money. SF is over the cap right now, so they have guys to cut before they make any moves. Bills, Ravens, Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers, Steerls, Chargers, Dolphins other teams presently looking unlikely to be active beyond taking care of their own business.
RE: I agree fix the OL  
Since1965 : 3/7/2024 2:20 pm : link
In comment 16419903 Chip said:
Quote:
nothing else matters.


100%!!!!
I like Wilkins  
Lines of Scrimmage : 3/7/2024 2:55 pm : link
but I would like to add to OL. The only issue with Onewu is how big he is. You don't see many 6'3" 350lb OL but I don't believe he has had injury concerns so that's a positive.
RE: Onwenu  
illmatic : 3/7/2024 3:42 pm : link
In comment 16419939 logman said:
Quote:
and Huff

Anything after that is gravy


Yep. The trenches always win games. Give me these two.
dotson off the board  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2024 5:47 pm : link
16m AAV ties Thuney, 3m more than Powers.

good number for Onwenu, can't imagine he takes less than this since he has the added ability of playing RT.


Jordan Schultz
@Schultz_Report
·
3m
BREAKING: The #Rams are re-signing star guard Kevin Dotson on a 3-year deal worth 48M, sources tell
@BleacherReport
.

That’s a big 16 APY for Dotson to solidify LA’s O-Line.
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