I've decided to put all my thoughts on where the Giants are at and my thinking in general, so that I can avoid the guerilla sportsfare that has several of you hating on me.
First off, I'm not a scout and I don't pretend to be, but I do have a belief system when it comes to the importance of certain traits in a prospect or player vs other traits (things like accuracy, arm strength, mental processing, mobility, coachability, injury history, leadership, etc, in a QB), so I may prefer one QB over another based on the relative consensus among draftniks regarding these traits. One example of this is that while I may agree with the consensus among draftniks that Caleb Williams is far and away the most physically gifted QB prospect, I want nothing to do with him based on coachability and leadership issues (also he's not the kind of guy I want to be rooting for over the next ten years, but I try not to let that color my judgment).
Second of all, I believe that everything in life is governed by probabilities (a quantum mechanical approach to forecasting and decision-making). This comes into play when I see posts declaring "the Giants aren't one player away" despite the glaring examples of the 2007 and 2011 Giants, who entered those seasons with predictions of a losing record and ended it with a Super Bowl victory. There are two competing forces at play during a given season: attrition vs experience/continuity. By this I mean that as a season progresses, coaches get a better feel for what their roster does well and doesn't do well, the talent learns and develops, mistakes get corrected and so there is less and less of them (the experience/continuity part); but at the same time players are getting injured (the attrition part). So while it may be true that a team deserves predictions of a losing season, if certain "probabilities" fall their way, they could find themselves in the Super Bowl (as in the 2007 and 2011 Giants, and most glaringly, the 1999 Rams, who were 300-1 underdogs at the start of the year). Every team has a shot.
And third of all, this isn't your grandfather's NFL where there were more clearly defined tiers between the haves and have nots of the league. The Giants got killed by the Cowboys in week one last year, such that you would believe the difference between the two were tantamount to the difference between Penn and Penn State, but in week two the Giants (and Jones) orchestrated a thrilling comeback against an Arizona team that beat the Cowboys in week three. Such is the parity and mediocrity that exists in today's NFL. The gap between the Giants and the Chiefs isn't as wide as one might think, just as the gap between Jones and Mahomes isn't as wide as one might think (who can forget the 2021 MNF game at Arrowhead Stadium in which Jones outplayed Mahomes? I'm guessing a lot of you).
On to the specifics...
Daniel Jones
I see his biggest negatives are his history of injuries and his pocket awareness. The issues with pocket awareness were mitigated by Andrew Thomas's stellar play at left tackle in 2022 and he managed to avoid the injury bug that year as well. The end result was a winning record and a playoff win. This despite the meager talent at WR and the suspect OL (other than Thomas). This led to the belief by Schoen & Daboll that Jones could lead the Giants to a Super Bowl with better talent around him and it was why they opted for the four year deal with $82M guaranteed rather than the safer approach that would come from the franchise tag. Rather than on orders from Mara (as some seem to believe without any evidence of it), I think it was a fear that a winning season and better individual stats would mean having to pay him $50M/year instead of $40M/year if they waited a year. I think it's possible for Jones to lead the Giants to a Super Bowl if the Giants have a season with a favorable "experience/continuity vs attrition" result (which was a disaster in 2023 beginning with the injury to Andrew Thomas exposing Jones's greatest weakness).
Daboll
I think Daboll believes that given a favorable "experience/continuity vs attrition" result (let's call it ECVA for short), he can get a team to the Super Bowl with just about any decent and coachable QB and the right talent around him. By "decent and coachable" I mean a QB with the requisite accuracy, mobility, and smarts rather than necessitating an elite QB. This is why he and Schoen believed it was prudent to give Jones the four year deal that they did. It wasn't simply Jones who was worth the $82M guaranteed, it was the experience and continuity in the system that came with him which made him worth it to them (IMO). Of course, the injuries to Jones in 2023 have changed those calculations. Instead of "experience and continuity" giving Jones added value, it's the "attrition" side of the equation that lessens his value.
The 2024 QB prospects
It's a curious group of prospects. Each of them comes with both favorable and worrisome traits. Typically it would be Maye and Penix who I favor the most, but Maye comes with significant question marks when it comes to dealing with a muddied pocket and Penix has that scary injury history. I love Daniels's character and coachability, but question his durability and ability to have success if forced to remain in the pocket and find secondary receivers. The fact that nobody was talking about him until he had Nabers and Thomas to throw to is also a concern for someone like me who is at the mercy of what I read rather than what I see (it would be less of a worry if I was dependent on my own evaluation). McCarthy appears to be the safest of prospects, but he doesn't seem to have any traits that stand out. He's more of a jack of all trades and master of none, which IMO gives him first round consideration but makes him feel like a reach with the 6th overall pick. I don't see him becoming an "elite" QB who can put a team on his back, but can see winning a Super Bowl with him on a well coached team and the right complementary talent if the team has a good year in the ECVA department. Bo Nix also falls into that category and, based on draftnik projections, appears to be someone who can be had late in round one (as opposed to McCarthy, who will probably go top ten if you can believe what you read).
As for the remaining QB prospects, Rattler intrigues me the most as someone I believe Daboll may see as someone he can develop behind Jones and ultimately win a Super Bowl with, but it's just as possible he could see that in anyone of the third tier prospects including Jordan Travis. If Daboll has that kind of confidence in his ability to develop a non-elite QB and win a Super Bowl with him, it may pay to hold off adding a QB until round two or three, but I think adding a starting quality QB in this draft is a must. We simply can't count on Jones to still be standing come playoff time regardless of how you feel about his talent.
In any case, there was more I wanted to say, but I'll end it here and perhaps elaborate further if there's any life to this thread. I get that I've been obnoxious when it comes to my responses to what I consider the repetitive and unfair treatment of Jones (and Mara too) and the questionable sources that are used to justify the abuse. I'll try to do better in the future.
I think the difference between Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Mahomes is hugh....let alone Jones.
Now, i do not get the love for Brock Purdy...the 49ers
Has the best roster and I suspect he would be worse than Jones on the Giants.
He's 5-11 (maybe) and has the worst athletic profile I think I've ever seen for a QB. I bet Eli scored higher!
He's NOT Schoen and Daboll's type of QB and I don't see any way he can succeed.
There are plenty of differing opinions on this site. Only a few posters get grief for theirs, and it is because of the way they post, not what they post.
like most of your posts, you try and sound smart with a lot of words but in the end it just comes across as a giant word salad with little coherency and less substance.
And I'm not even debating your points other than the Caleb Williams discrepancy where you kind of contradict yourself in the first few sentences. And I won't even address the Jones and Mahomes comparison. You really show your ass on that one.
There are plenty of differing opinions on this site. Only a few posters get grief for theirs, and it is because of the way they post, not what they post.
When I get frustrated with people, I can turn to sarcasm and other tools of the trade.
What I Believe... - ( New Window )
Also, I think you take the attacks on DJ too personally. Nobody hates him and wishes him harm, except maybe Paulie Walnuts. A majority of the fanbase is just sick of the half decade long tryout and is excited for some new project with new potential. There is no need to take up arms in response to posters who are rightfully sick at tired of DJ at quarterback. He's a great hard working guy and leader, but many here including myself think it's time to open a new chapter. It would do good for him to open a new chapter too imo.
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post. You say you're not a scout and don't pretend to be and then go on to talk about Caleb Williams lack of being coachable and lack of leadership. What do you know about either of those and how do you know it?
Because with Caleb, it's not about evaluating what happens on the field, it's what he says and does off the field. How he deals with the media when he says he's been coached on media relations since he was in high school. It's about things that were said by his father in the Sports Illustrated article and what to anticipate going forward if he or the team gets off to a poor start (or during any poor stretch from him). It's about what happened vs Utah when he had "Fuck Utah" written on his knuckles but didn't have the sportsmanship to get his ass of the bench and shake hands with any of them after the loss (shades of Cam Newton, but worse)...
he's 22 years old.
maybe you're one of the rare ones, but I can guarantee you I was not a finished product at 22 despite whatever successes I had to that point. Most people are not.
if you take him off your board because of this and as mentioned you think Daniel Jones is close to Mahomes you lose any credibility (or even sense of sound logic) you had with people who afforded you either.
Shit I read on here almost overwhelmingly how CJ Stroud was a product of his Ohio State offense and not a great pick, but how Josh Rosen was "can't miss". you, and most of the rest of the posters on here, have no f-ing clue what you're talking about.
Be courteous kind and forgiving.
The point is - he just doesn't want to hear "the Giants aren't one player away," so he closed his eyes and threw out a dart looking to draw a flawed parallel to fit his narrative.
OFC he is right in a very extremely minor degree that anything is possible under extreme situations and extreme luck but then you have to take the context of the comment "the Giants aren't one player away" with a certain measure of logic/context as it was intended. That's when probability comes into play. If the version of this year's Giants team had a floor of the era he was speaking of from 2005-2012 then the parallels would be more appropriate.
."This comes into play when I see posts declaring "the Giants aren't one player away" despite the glaring examples of the 2007 and 2011 Giants, who entered those seasons with predictions of a losing record and ended it with a Super Bowl victory."
2005: 11-5, 2006-- 8-8, 2007- 10-6
2008: 12-4, 2009-- 8-8, 2010- 10-6
2011: 9-7, 2012-- 9-7
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lol What I Believe... - ( New Window )
Be courteous kind and forgiving.
LOL
:thumbsup:
But the real reason for my post is that prior to writing that sentence, you state as pretty much fact, that "This led to the belief by Schoen & Daboll that Jones could lead the Giants to a Super Bowl with better talent around him and it was why they opted for the four year deal with $82M guaranteed rather than the safer approach that would come from the franchise tag."
I've never read/heard Schoen, Daboll or even Mara mention DJ and the Super Bowl in the same sentence.
Since you seem to require evidence from others regarding their posts, perhaps you would like to share your evidence regarding management's belief that DJ will lead the Giants to a Super Bowl.
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Milton, you write, "Rather than on orders from Mara (as some seem to believe without any evidence of it)". First, I am firmly of the BELIEF that Mara had his hands all over the DJ contract. I have firmly stated that as my OPINION on the DJ contract. Most posts on this site are simply the writer's opinion on a given subject. I don't think any of us understood that we are required to provide evidence prior to posting our opinions.
When you are accusing someone of going against what they've said and what the organizational philosophy has been for generations (owners own, managers manage, coaches coach, players play), I think it should come from more than just an opinion (which feels to me like it is motivated by the fact that it's easier to contend you're a better judge of Jones than John Mara than it is to contend the same with Schoen and Daboll).
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But the real reason for my post is that prior to writing that sentence, you state as pretty much fact, that "This led to the belief by Schoen & Daboll that Jones could lead the Giants to a Super Bowl with better talent around him and it was why they opted for the four year deal with $82M guaranteed rather than the safer approach that would come from the franchise tag."
Okay, so add in an "IMO" at the start of the first sentence. I thought it was understood, but maybe that was just lazy of me.
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I've never read/heard Schoen, Daboll or even Mara mention DJ and the Super Bowl in the same sentence. Since you seem to require evidence from others regarding their posts, perhaps you would like to share your evidence regarding management's belief that DJ will lead the Giants to a Super Bowl.
Schoen, Daboll, and Mara could talk until they're big blue in the face and it wouldn't compare to the action of giving Jones $82M in guaranteed money. How can you give that kind of money to a QB if you felt you couldn't get to a Super Bowl with him behind center? The evidence in this case was simple logic.
First of all, "simple logic" does not equate to evidence.
However, if you want debate using simple logic, simple logic would tell you that two experienced football men such as Schoen and Daboll, would never bet their future success on Daniel Jones after evaluating his body of work. In addition, simple logic would tell you that an owner who has let his emotional attachment to players cloud his judgement in the past, would be capable of doing the same regarding DJ.
Anyway I just hope Schoen makes the right choice. Been a fan since Tarkenton...since that time Gants have had two franchise QB's in my view... Simms and Eli
First of all, "simple logic" does not equate to evidence.
However, if you want debate using simple logic, simple logic would tell you that two experienced football men such as Schoen and Daboll, would never bet their future success on Daniel Jones after evaluating his body of work. In addition, simple logic would tell you that an owner who has let his emotional attachment to players cloud his judgement in the past, would be capable of doing the same regarding DJ.
Your simple logic is riddled with subjectivity, whereas mine...
...relies on my ability to remain absolutely, purely objective - ( New Window )
hey, maybe Daniel Jones can win a Super Bowl because the Giants gave him a big contract!
hate to break it to you, Milton, but Daniel Jones won’t take a single snap for the NY Giants this season, regardless of what anyone thought about him at this time last year. it’s over. let it go, Indiana.
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First of all, "simple logic" does not equate to evidence.
However, if you want debate using simple logic, simple logic would tell you that two experienced football men such as Schoen and Daboll, would never bet their future success on Daniel Jones after evaluating his body of work. In addition, simple logic would tell you that an owner who has let his emotional attachment to players cloud his judgement in the past, would be capable of doing the same regarding DJ.
Your simple logic requires the inclusion of your opinion on Jones and the conjuring up a meddling owner going against the organizational philosophy and what he'd previously said about Schoen's level of autonomy when it came to personnel decisions. My simple logic has nothing to my own opinion of Jones (or anyone affected by the decision).
Your simple logic is riddled with subjectivity, whereas mine... ...relies on my ability to remain absolutely, purely objective - ( New Window )
You make absolutely no sense. Your entire argument regarding the Jones contract is based on your OPINION (subjectivity) that Mara did not exercise his right as owner to influence/decide whether Jones was offered a substantial contract. You don't know, I don't know nor does anyone on else on this board.
While most people here simply present their opinion on a subject, you scoff at others' opinions because there is no supporting "evidence". You then state your own opinion as fact (requiring no "evidence") because it seems logical to you.
I'm done with this discussion.
I do think we should try and move on from Jones (too many injuries and took a step back last year when he needed to take a step forward.) But we can't force getting a QB. Have to get the right one at the right price or keep building the roster.
I do think DJ can win in the NFL, but I doubt it will be with the Giants.
Your simple logic is riddled with subjectivity, whereas mine... ...relies on my ability to remain absolutely, purely objective - ( New Window )
So when you said in the OP that you have been obnoxious and you are going to try and do better in the future, I guess that meant starting tomorrow?
Because he led a so-so Giants team last year to the playoffs and got a playoff victory, that's not nothing. And as far as his pocket awareness, I'd like to see what some of these other QB's can do with the Giants offensive line in the first month of the 2023.
Both in 2022 and 23, I think it was pretty well known that the guy couldn't take a 5 or 7 step drop within seconds of getting a defensive lineman breathing down his neck, not blitzes, but offensive linemen getting beat consistently.
If the Giants brass decide to draft another QB, then I'm good with that. But if they go in another direction, I for one, can be just as excited.
"Good enough to win multiple Super Bowls like his predecessor, Eli Manning? 'I don't see why not,' the Giants CEO said, 'if we put the right pieces around him.'"
Giants' John Mara Says Daniel Jones Is a Super Bowl QB: 'The Sky's the Limit - ( New Window )
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I don't know how there are people in 2024 who think Jones can lead this team to a Super Bowl. Like, what? Were Giant fans going back in '97...'Dave Brown can still lead us to glory'?
Because he led a so-so Giants team last year to the playoffs and got a playoff victory, that's not nothing. And as far as his pocket awareness, I'd like to see what some of these other QB's can do with the Giants offensive line in the first month of the 2023.
Both in 2022 and 23, I think it was pretty well known that the guy couldn't take a 5 or 7 step drop within seconds of getting a defensive lineman breathing down his neck, not blitzes, but offensive linemen getting beat consistently.
If the Giants brass decide to draft another QB, then I'm good with that. But if they go in another direction, I for one, can be just as excited.
I honestly can’t think of any scenario less exciting than seeing Daniel Jones under center for the Giants in 2024.
"Good enough to win multiple Super Bowls like his predecessor, Eli Manning? 'I don't see why not,' the Giants CEO said, 'if we put the right pieces around him.'" Giants' John Mara Says Daniel Jones Is a Super Bowl QB: 'The Sky's the Limit - ( New Window )
I hope you realize his role as the owner is to sell hope...even when there is none.
"Good enough to win multiple Super Bowls like his predecessor, Eli Manning? 'I don't see why not,' the Giants CEO said, 'if we put the right pieces around him.'" Giants' John Mara Says Daniel Jones Is a Super Bowl QB: 'The Sky's the Limit - ( New Window )
I hope that was an old interview.
He's 5-11 (maybe) and has the worst athletic profile I think I've ever seen for a QB. I bet Eli scored higher!
He's NOT Schoen and Daboll's type of QB and I don't see any way he can succeed.
That is so wrong. Watch him play. He has very quick feet in the pocket and can move when he needs to. Look at his college resume it’s a career in itself. Adversity etc. mental toughness and physical toughness. Plus arm talent. He’s built very much like baker mayfield. Thick body too
To bottom and hes 6 feet and 218 lbs. that isn’t “small” it’s short. Yet he a make all the throws. To call him unathletic is lazy. He has all the tools and then some. If he was 6-3 he’d be wayyyyy ahead of every not named Caleb Williams. I’ve been touting this guy for months I think pro scouts love him. Check his college career. It’s a great story and shows great mental toughness which he’ll need New York I want this kid even if it means trading up back into round 2
So what did the Giants learn from wasting so many years of failed promises? In free agency, they drafted 4 offensive linemen with lots of experience, and supposedly better at pass blocking than run blocking. Finally! And on top of that, they added to blocking type TEs in free agency. This was necessary for any QB to be successful, whether it's Jones, Lock, or whoever they might draft. I truly hate that we never got the chance to find out beyond all doubt what a healthy Jones could have produced if provided with a decent line and better WRs and TEs who didn't bounce passes into the opponent's hands or ones with recurrent injuries.
Now on to the draft, where the Giants will seriously look for a replacement for Jones and/or select a WR1 (something they never gave Jones). My personal preference would be WR like Odunze since that seems a more sure thing as we all know how lucky you have to be to draft a stud QB. I believe we will take WR and QB with our first two picks.
The biggest issue right now is whether you like him or not his health is an issue. So a contingency plan is needed. I don’t think Lock is a viable plan but maybe Russel Wilson was. My personal opinion is that the Giants can’t get out of Jones contract this year and improve the team so the thought of Wilson was great because of the minimum contract. He could also be a mentor for a young QB is they get one.
Now on to the QBs. History has shown that it’s a bad idea to trade up for a QB. In all the trade ups for a QB, only 2 ever won a Super Bowl. Eli and Mahomes. And only a handful have been successful. Technically Eli was a player for player and picks but it counts here. I’m OK with the Giants drafting a QB as long as it’s not a trade up. We have the same terrible WR issues as of today as we had last year. We signed 2nd tier guards and still have Neal and JMS. Is it any better? Hopefully and should be but for some reason OL here don’t play well.
To be successful a QB needs talent around them. FA is how you fill gaps not the main pieces. Trading picks when you have lots of holes sets you up for long term failure. It’s how the Jets operate, always winning the off-season and never putting the pieces together. Burns was a nice add but at a big cost of picks and money. Where are the pieces on O? Slayton is a 700 yard receiver. Robinson is a nice player but health has set him back. He’s played 21 games and still doesn’t have 1000 yards. Singletary is an average back. Waller is retired ( should be). How can you improve without picks?
+1
I enjoyed that.
Thanks Milton
"Good enough to win multiple Super Bowls like his predecessor, Eli Manning? 'I don't see why not,' the Giants CEO said, 'if we put the right pieces around him.'" Giants' John Mara Says Daniel Jones Is a Super Bowl QB: 'The Sky's the Limit - ( New Window )
Thanks. I had never seen that before. Either that or I had forgotten about it since the quote is from March of 2021.
Mara is so emotionally invested in Jones, he may actually still believe that what he said back then is true.
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I don't know how there are people in 2024 who think Jones
If the Giants brass decide to draft another QB, then I'm good with that. But if they go in another direction, I for one, can be just as excited.
You're a great fan - you'll be excited either way. But what if you were a GM in which you were accountable to lead the team? Think of the Owner, the season ticket holders, you as GM wanting to prove yourself and not be left to dry etc, what would be your top priority in the draft?
Also considering how early you are going to get a pick next year. OFC the worse pick might mean your job, right? SO you also have family considerations and looking at your scale within your profession.
Now think of if your team was just as rotten this upcoming season as this past season and you stuck with Jones who did lousy while even of the top QB's you could have had such as Maye or JJM, or Penix or Nix does very well and you’re in the same draft position with a weaker QB class, how well do you think your prospects would look for job security?
VS if for example you took a QB and you had the same rotten record-- you would still be able to sell that year 1 was a learning year, right? Plus how much money you would save the owner by no longer having Jones.
Plus, a fan like you, wouldn't you be more positive with the younger QB vs Joens another year - paying hm so much - and still waiting?
He had a conclusiion in his mind then he threw out darts after-the-fact to try to justify his argument.
BTW- great job by our Huskies!!!!!!!!