What's Your Guess on Waller

If you are thinking retirement to the point you say if out loud that he should just retire.

he won't be on the roster opening day

will released if not traded at the draft.

He is either done or wants out.

that he is going to retire. They are going with Bellinger as the main TE and the rest of the signed players will fill in. Bellinger was an important player his rookie year then the whole Waller mess changed that.

I think the Giants may go after a TE in the draft so they dont want to tip their hand. Plus it will be a post June retirement so no rush.

Waller looked like he didnt want to play last year.

In comment 16444944 Rudy5757 said:

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that he is going to retire. They are going with Bellinger as the main TE and the rest of the signed players will fill in. Bellinger was an important player his rookie year then the whole Waller mess changed that. I think the Giants may go after a TE in the draft so they dont want to tip their hand. Plus it will be a post June retirement so no rush. Waller looked like he didnt want to play last year.

I hope you're right Rudy. Because if you're thinking of retired then you're retired. I don't se how you can play such a physical game half in.

I don't think there are even tea leaves to read.

However, the closer we get to the draft, if he hasn't announced, I think that suggests he wants to keep playing. "Wants to" is not the same as "can" or "will" though.

It's also possible he or his people are communicating with the Giants confidentially. The fans will probably be the last to know.

He has admitted in the past to not "loving football," though he has been very good at it for many years.

His wife lives in Las Vegas and they have been married for less than a year. I can't imagine he'd want to come back to NY for a another year given his long line of injuries, spouse in another city, and his lack of long term connection to the Giants.

On a per game basis he was the Giants number one target last year. If he's not coming back, that's definitely the hole to fill. Of course that come by way of a WR. But if both parties feel good about his health, maybe it works out.

In comment 16444957 christian said:

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On a per game basis he was the Giants number one target last year. If he's not coming back, that's definitely the hole to fill. Of course that come by way of a WR. But if both parties feel good about his health, maybe it works out.

I think he can easily be replaced by using the recievers, mostly WanDale and Bellenger more.

preseason, until his hamstring issues kicked in. I'm no expert, but his injuries are seeming like the chronic variety, so if he retires, might be better off.

Then he's gonna retire when he's gotta show up to camp.

Once you start talking about retiring you mentally have retired imv

Bellinger had a disappointing sophomore year, but it's worth noting he is more of a move TE, but with Waller here, he was playing in-line with Waller at the move.

Hoping Bellinger can get back to what he showed his rookie year, playing his natural position.

if he retires as opposed to being cut?

Bellinger started and played 90%+ of the snaps when Waller was out for 5 games. He caught 11 passes for ~140 yards and no TDs.

I like Bellinger a lot, but based on last year when he had his shot, he wasn't a big part of the offense. I doubt he's going to take on the burden of a meaningful amount of more targets.

The Giants were in the bottom 4th in the league in pass attempts last year with 518. I expect them to pass more next year with the absence of Barkley and potentially Jones.

I doubt Robinson goes from 75 targets to 125+, but maybe.

All that to say if the Giants need to pass the ball more, someone needs to be on the receiving end.

I wonder if the retirement talks are really about Waller using what leverage he has.

Long distance relationships suck, maybe he wants to get closer to his significant other? Perhaps he is angling to go back to the Raiders (with change in management) or another team out that way.

It wouldn't surprise me if there were discussions happening between Schoen and Waller behind the scenes.

If you look at Waller's base salaries, that is a lot of money to leave on the table. (per over the cap)

2024: $10,525,000
2025: $11,525,000
2026: $13,525,000
Plus there is $1,275,000 each year in per game roster bonuses.

That potentially adds up to $39,400,000

I suspect Waller wants the coin, but isn't happy with either the long-distance or perhaps where the Giants are at (or both).

But they're planning as if he won't be back.

The problem for Waller (and positive for the Giants) is he has no more guaranteed money on his deal.

I can't image there is a strong trade market for a soon-to-be 32-year-old TE who's missed 6, 8, and 5 games the last years. Especially with a ~12M price tags in 2024.

The Giants would have to eat some of his salary to get anything of value back. And even then I can't imagine he would draw more than a 5th round pick in a trade.

If Waller retires (or is cut before June 1), we have $7,376,250 in dead money and $6,707,500 in extra cap space.

If we cut Waller after June 1, we have $2,458,750 and $11,625,000 in cap space.

If Waller retires, the Giants own his rights

Waller could be trying to get cut, allowing him to sign wherever he likes.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Waller was trying to use the threat of retirement to force his being traded or released.

In comment 16444969 barens said:

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preseason, until his hamstring issues kicked in. I'm no expert, but his injuries are seeming like the chronic variety, so if he retires, might be better off.

Dugan was saying how they played him way too hard in training camp and since he was coming off two injury-shortened years he should have been used sparingly like the 30 year old vet he is.

But I guess Danny needed his reps with Waller or something.

He's dealt with a lot through his life, and the current situation is about his profession. It's up to him and his wife to decide what he should do. I wish him all the best of luck in whatever decision he makes, whether to pursue a musical career like his grandfather did, or continue putting his body at risk of becoming crippled from injuries playing football.

In comment 16445057 Big_Pete said:

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If Waller retires (or is cut before June 1), we have $7,376,250 in dead money and $6,707,500 in extra cap space. If we cut Waller after June 1, we have $2,458,750 and $11,625,000 in cap space. If Waller retires, the Giants own his rights Waller could be trying to get cut, allowing him to sign wherever he likes. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Waller was trying to use the threat of retirement to force his being traded or released.

I know it would excite may of the drama queens on here, but the guy actually likes the organization and coaching staff in NY.

Retirement is legitimately on his mind due to injuries and personal life. (Fyi I'm not an asshat, but have heard things from people involved with the league, and I'll leave it at that).

receivers. That may be an indication that they hope he won't retire.

very rarely do players tease retirement in public and not retire.

In comment 16445057 Big_Pete said:

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If Waller retires (or is cut before June 1), we have $7,376,250 in dead money and $6,707,500 in extra cap space. If we cut Waller after June 1, we have $2,458,750 and $11,625,000 in cap space. If Waller retires, the Giants own his rights Waller could be trying to get cut, allowing him to sign wherever he likes. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Waller was trying to use the threat of retirement to force his being traded or released.

That's EXACTLY what he's trying to do IMO. He wants to continue to get paid and wants to be closer to his wife on the West Coast. He thinks he's slick, but he's not. I'd trade him at the draft if I could, but he's not worth anything after last season and he costs too damned much.

is extremely emotional and difficult for these guys. Especially if they feel they can still play. Yes, the idea of leaving $30 mill on the table probably adds to the dilemma.

My guess is he would love to play another year, but 6 months away from home and constant injury is beating him down.

My guess is he waits until mini-camps start(reality sets in) and then retires.

think he will retire. He has no trade value IMO.

I wish he’d make a fucking decision already.

Wish him well personally, but he can retire and get off the team.

I've heard many players say, if you're seriously thinking about retirement, it means you should retire.

him as a NY Giant?

I am pretty sure I have enough already.

i dont know if it will be a cut or trade or retiring, but that's my expectation. there are much better uses of $10.5m. you could probably sign both tredavious white and justin simmons as an example.

i dont think they signed 2 new tight ends for no reason.

I don't think he'll be a Giant either.

I am probably the most bullish defender of the current crop of skill players, but if Waller is not in the cards, on top of losing Barkley this would indicate the Giants need a pass catcher and running back.

to retire, he'd probably have done it by now.

But I continue to show up…

To save a roster spot for someone who can stay on the field

His retirement has cap implications as well as complications for Waller. He got paid a signing bonus by the Raiders which they can demand be repaid. And from a cap perspective it matters whether it iccurs before or after June 1st.

He retires.

In comment 16445297 Jim in Fairfax said:

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His retirement has cap implications as well as complications for Waller. He got paid a signing bonus by the Raiders which they can demand be repaid. And from a cap perspective it matters whether it iccurs before or after June 1st.

Why would the Raiders have a claim to a bonus when the commercial agreement was transferred to the Giants?

The Giants paid him a restructure bonus last year that was the conversion of his 2023 salary less the veteran minimum.

They could try and recover some part of that, but the results in those clawback attempts is pretty hit or miss. Because that bonus wasn't a true signing bonus, but just the reshuffling of money I doubt the Giants would succeed in a claim.

The June 1 component I agree comes into play *if* the Giants need the cap relief on 2024. Based on their draft slot, they are functionally OK for now, but will need to create more room to operate in 2024.

In comment 16445314 christian said:

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Why would the Raiders have a claim to a bonus when the commercial agreement was transferred to the Giants? The Giants paid him a restructure bonus last year that was the conversion of his 2023 salary less the veteran minimum. They could try and recover some part of that, but the results in those clawback attempts is pretty hit or miss. Because that bonus wasn't a true signing bonus, but just the reshuffling of money I doubt the Giants would succeed in a claim. The June 1 component I agree comes into play *if* the Giants need the cap relief on 2024. Based on their draft slot, they are functionally OK for now, but will need to create more room to operate in 2024.

He signed this contract with the Raiders. They paid a signing bonus. If he retires, he didn’t fulfill the contract he got the bonus for. Doesnt really matter that they traded him. OTOH, it was a small bonus so they may not bother.

Giant’s can’t clawback the restructure. That’s money was for services already performed (last years salary). You can only claw back money paid in advance for future services not performed.

I just don't see how the Raiders would have standing to a claim about unfulfilled services when they received fair compensation (draft pick) which ended their terms with Waller, and transferred the remaining obligations in the agreement to the Giants. I typically agree with you, but I don't see it here.

but i dont think it matters because his original contract with vegas was only 825k of signing bonus. he got all his guaranteed money in salaries not bonus and those salaries were due in 2022 and 2023 (no guaranteed money left).

the signing bonus was paid out for performance of a contract the nyg now own, so i would think they would have the claim even though they wouldnt have owned the initial cap hit. im not sure about the rules around that but since it's so low in this case its functionally irrelevant.

i dont think the giants would have any claim against the restructure $ last year since that was guaranteed base that would have been paid out in 2023.

so since there is no difference in cap between cut/retirement i suspect they are holding him for one of these reasons:

a) retirement lowers chances of injury claim than cut, as does him showing up for work healthy and ready to participate (possible)
b) camouflaging their intentions ahead of draft (unlikely)
c) possibility of trade (also unlikely)
d) because they want to keep him

at 10.5m d seems the hardest to believe honestly.

I think he wants to play for a different team.

In comment 16445436 JonC said:

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I think he wants to play for a different team.

certainly possible since his wife plays in vegas he'd rather be on the west coast, but it is extremely unlikely anyone wants to pay him the 10.5m on his current contract. if he were a FA i think he'd be hanging out with OBJ right now waiting for the phone to ring on a 1 year deal that's heavily incentive based.

same ages, beckham played better and played more than waller last year at the more premium position.

but he might need to have that reality punch him in the head first.

D) becomes even less likely because if he's on the roster all year it's closer to 12M.

The only chance he has to earn that IMV is in the unlikely event there is a trade where the Giants are willing to eat some of that money and the compensation back is worth it.

If the Giants were able to recoup a 3rd (near impossibly), they might be willing to eat half of the new 2024 cash.

But no one is trading anything of value for the right to pay Waller 6M this year.

People keep referring to Bellinger, but both of the veteran TEs they picked up can block and have shown the ability to catch when needed. I think both are better receivers than some may think. Hodgins also fills that big target role.

Based on potential, he would be missed. Based on performance, what he has done to date, when available, can be compensated for by those still on team after his retirement.

for him?

In comment 16445501 christian said:

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D) becomes even less likely because if he's on the roster all year it's closer to 12M. The only chance he has to earn that IMV is in the unlikely event there is a trade where the Giants are willing to eat some of that money and the compensation back is worth it. If the Giants were able to recoup a 3rd (near impossibly), they might be willing to eat half of the new 2024 cash. But no one is trading anything of value for the right to pay Waller 6M this year.

you might be able to get a day 3 pick and that may be worth it during the draft if someone they like is there at pick #140 or something like that. or maybe as a throw in for a trade up from pick #47 to pick #43 or something like that.

my best guess is the giants are looking at it like they have time to make the decision before eating new $ this year. that they have enough flexibility to do what they want now before dealing with his cap situation.

he may be be the 'in-season petty cash' they tap into if they move on after most of the business of the offseason is taken care of.