Chris Pflum: deep dive: Michael Penix Jr...{long}

Are the potential rewards with Michael Penix worth the risk? Penix has obvious arm talent and can make every throw likely to be asked of him at the NFL level. He’s a smart, experienced quarterback, and highly productive quarterback who finished second in the 2023 Heisman Trophy voting. However, he also has significant injury concerns and has had lapses in his accuracy and efficiency on tape.

Football IQ and Mental processing

Penix shows a good football IQ throughout his game.

He has a very good command of his offense, with an understanding of the various passing concepts as well as the blocking schemes. Penix understands where his answers are in any given play and also understands where pressure is likely to come from.
He understands how to manipulate defenses and he uses his eye discipline to manipulate defensive backs, expanding receiving windows. Penix works through his progressions well. He doesn’t get stuck on his reads and is generally a responsible decision maker. He doesn’t often get flustered or put the ball in danger due to miscommunication or misreading the defense.

Arm talent

He is a generally accurate quarterback who flashes the ability to deliver the ball with pinpoint precision in the short-to-intermediate area as well as timing and anticipation down the field. He throws a tight spiral and is able to generate the velocity to attack all areas of the field as well as challenge tight windows underneath.

His large hands allow him to throw with good touch for a strong-armed quarterback, and Penix does have the ability to throw with a higher trajectory and layer the ball between defenders.

His accuracy is inconsistent and can break down in certain situations.

Final Word

Michael Penix Jr. might have the widest range of possible career paths among any of the top quarterback prospects.

At the high end, his football IQ and ability to act upon his reads – that is, his ability to make any throw asked of him without taking drive-damaging sacks – suggests a very high ceiling. At the opposite extreme, Penix could see his career derailed by injury.

Teams that are considering drafting Penix should assess their appetite for his associated risk, and make sure they have a plan in place to allow him to play to his strengths. The right team could be richly rewarded, as long as they understand that they may also be frustrated or never see their investment pay off.





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