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Supply, Demand, and the Draft

LittleBlue : 3/25/2024 5:01 pm
This year may potentially see 4 quarterbacks go 1-2-3-4, or maybe four of the top 5. That's never happened before - in fact it's been extraordinarily rare for 4 quarterbacks to go in the top 10.

Funny thing is, no one seems particularly convinced that this is the best quarterback draft in history, or that these are four players who each in their own right would be #1 overall draft picks (or even top 4 picks) in many other recent years - instead, it is simply the case that more teams than usual are looking desperate to draft a quarterback.

On the other hand, we do see 3 WR talents that genuinely might be top draft choices in almost any other year, with WR another key position of need for the NYG.

In that context, should the Giants want to win the bid for this rather artificial scarcity at QB? I think not.
I can't answer.....but I certainly do not wish to over pay  
George from PA : 3/25/2024 5:05 pm : link
Especially, as a Top WR is a major need.
Take the WR  
Sec 103 : 3/25/2024 5:18 pm : link
with the 6th pick lest a QB falls there...
DO NOT OVERPAY for a 50% prop.
This is one of the best  
Amtoft : 3/25/2024 5:33 pm : link
QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.
RE: This is one of the best  
Ivan15 : 3/25/2024 5:40 pm : link
In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:
Quote:
QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.
_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.
RE: RE: This is one of the best  
Amtoft : 3/25/2024 5:41 pm : link
In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:
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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.


Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.
RE: RE: RE: This is one of the best  
LittleBlue : 3/25/2024 6:03 pm : link
In comment 16445871 Amtoft said:
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In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:


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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.



Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.


he's saying top 3-4 vs. top 3-4. not that all four are better than the top 1 here.
RE: RE: RE: This is one of the best  
NJBlueTuna : 3/25/2024 6:03 pm : link
In comment 16445871 Amtoft said:
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In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:


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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.



Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.


There is a decent shot Daniels is drafted before Williams. So I guess I agree this is a strong QB class if you view Maye as having rare talent. I don’t see Maye as a first overall draft pick like I do Williams and Daniels. Maye has that Browning Nagle vibe to him.
RE: RE: RE: This is one of the best  
Spider56 : 3/25/2024 6:04 pm : link
In comment 16445871 Amtoft said:
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In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:


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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.



Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.


1983 … Elway, Kelly and Marino …
RE: RE: RE: RE: This is one of the best  
Spider56 : 3/25/2024 6:07 pm : link
In comment 16445893 Spider56 said:
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In comment 16445871 Amtoft said:


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In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:


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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.



Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.



1983 … Elway, Kelly and Marino …

2004 … Eli, Rivers and Big Ben
But my broader point  
LittleBlue : 3/25/2024 6:09 pm : link
...is that NEVER IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL have we seen four quarterbacks go in the top 5 picks. Only very, very rarely, have we seen four quarterbacks go in the top 10.

And, this is a very strong class for high end prospects at other marquee positions like WR and OT.

So in a market with very strong alternatives to QB and a seemingly mad rush to trade up for QB - almost certainly the third or fourth off the board - why would you put yourself in that bidding war?

You would be paying the highest price in the history of the NFL for the fourth quarterback drafted, based primarily on the ravenous amount of demand, not on the amazing quality of the supply.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is one of the best  
NJBlueTuna : 3/25/2024 6:41 pm : link
In comment 16445894 Spider56 said:
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In comment 16445893 Spider56 said:


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In comment 16445871 Amtoft said:


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In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:


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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.



Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.



1983 … Elway, Kelly and Marino …


2004 … Eli, Rivers and Big Ben


The quick follow-up of the right jab by the sweeping left hook just gave Amtoft a standing eight count. Impressive display of staggering an opponent by sheer facts.
RE: RE: RE: RE: This is one of the best  
Amtoft : 3/25/2024 7:28 pm : link
In comment 16445893 Spider56 said:
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In comment 16445871 Amtoft said:


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In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:


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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.



Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.



1983 … Elway, Kelly and Marino …


That was a good draft on paper coming out of college, but not as good as this one. After the fact it is easy to say 1983... You can 2020 also where the top 5 QBs were Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, and Hurts after the fact... however that draft wasn't as good as this one.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is one of the best  
Amtoft : 3/25/2024 7:33 pm : link
In comment 16445916 NJBlueTuna said:
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In comment 16445894 Spider56 said:


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In comment 16445893 Spider56 said:


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In comment 16445871 Amtoft said:


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In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:


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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.



Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.



1983 … Elway, Kelly and Marino …


2004 … Eli, Rivers and Big Ben



The quick follow-up of the right jab by the sweeping left hook just gave Amtoft a standing eight count. Impressive display of staggering an opponent by sheer facts.


Not really... I mean Eli wouldn't be #1 in this draft, Ben was a smaller school prospect and not as good as this class, and Rivers was considered a side arm QB. Yes after the fact it is again easy to say this draft class was great or this one was great after the fact. The fact is though coming out of college Kelly, Marino, Eli, Ben, Rivers wouldn't be top 2 in this draft.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: This is one of the best  
Jim in Tampa : 3/25/2024 8:53 pm : link
In comment 16445916 NJBlueTuna said:
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In comment 16445894 Spider56 said:


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In comment 16445893 Spider56 said:


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In comment 16445871 Amtoft said:


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In comment 16445870 Ivan15 said:


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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.

_______________________
There have been other drafts where the top 3-4 QBs have been better prospects than this one. All of these players have some flaws. And some of them have physical limitations that can’t be overcome, only offset.



Name one draft where the top 3-4 QBs have been better than Caleb Williams... I will wait.



1983 … Elway, Kelly and Marino …


2004 … Eli, Rivers and Big Ben


The quick follow-up of the right jab by the sweeping left hook just gave Amtoft a standing eight count. Impressive display of staggering an opponent by sheer facts.

WRONG!

You can't compare QBs who haven't even started their NFL careers to QBs whose careers have already played out.

Not an apt comparison.

It's like saying that it's a FACT that the 1994 draft of QBs Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer and Perry Klein is better than this year's QB crop, because Dilfer won a Super Bowl, Shuler won 8 games and Klein attempted one pass... while the 2024 QB class hasn't done shit in the NFL.
Daniels and CW  
BleedBlue46 : 3/25/2024 9:01 pm : link
Would be #1 picks in most draft classes imo. JJM and Maye would be #1 picks in below average draft classes. I don't think you're valuing how good this QB class really is.
I'd say 2 drafts in the last 41 years have been as good as this one:  
BleedBlue46 : 3/25/2024 9:02 pm : link
1983 and 2004.
Is the NFL  
Scooter185 : 3/25/2024 9:05 pm : link
Static? Unchanging? The demand for QBs is driven by the changes the league has made over the last 2 decades with rules and rookie contracts. You get the right one and you're set for years. If you don't you keep trying
RE: This is one of the best  
Rudy5757 : 3/25/2024 10:59 pm : link
In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:
Quote:
QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.


That draft didn’t turn out so great for QBs. Just because 5 QBs were taken doesn’t mean they should have been taken.

Just because 6 QBs are given 1st round grades doesn’t correlate to NFL success. They could all be great or they could all be busts. The odds are that only 1 or 2 will be plus NFL QBs. But it’s no different for any position. Situation has as much to do with player success than anything else.

The Bears have a solid situation, Washington has some OL issues but has some plus targets. NE is a nightmare and the Giants are a less than desirable situation with no weapons and still a questionable line.

Minnesota has a good shot at plug and play success
RE: RE: This is one of the best  
Amtoft : 3/26/2024 1:23 am : link
In comment 16446183 Rudy5757 said:
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In comment 16445861 Amtoft said:


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QB draft classes ever on paper. 6 QBs could go in the first round. It has insane talent. This is better than 2018 when 5 QBs went round one.



That draft didn’t turn out so great for QBs. Just because 5 QBs were taken doesn’t mean they should have been taken.

Just because 6 QBs are given 1st round grades doesn’t correlate to NFL success. They could all be great or they could all be busts. The odds are that only 1 or 2 will be plus NFL QBs. But it’s no different for any position. Situation has as much to do with player success than anything else.

The Bears have a solid situation, Washington has some OL issues but has some plus targets. NE is a nightmare and the Giants are a less than desirable situation with no weapons and still a questionable line.

Minnesota has a good shot at plug and play success



Of course they should have been taken. Just because a QB can bust doesn’t mean you pass on them. Will all 6 be good probably not. Statistics are not on their side but there is a good chance that 2-4 of them will be good and we would be idiots not to take one of the top 4 if we have a chance because he may bust. They may also be Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Eli Manning, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Phillip Rivers, and so on and so on. The class is great. Probably one of the best on paper ever. Will it be one of the best ever? Only time will tell.
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