and I've been trying to think of instances where a team really went against the grain from where the experts had them pegged. I come up with 2 scenarios but can't think of any others.
But I think it's bullshit you can't get to place money on the no side of the proposition, because I'd seriously consider it if I could get 4 to 1 odds anyone else is picked second
Yesterday a $100 bet would have won you $2500. Today that same bet would get you $400. This would indicate someone who matters has received information about McCarthy being picked high.
With NFL personnel gathering in Orlando, Fla., for the annual league meetings this week, a “popular” theory being speculated amongst team execs is that the Commanders — who hold the second-overall pick in next month’s draft — will select former Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, NFL Network reported Monday.
“Everybody’s always trying to figure out, especially at the top of the draft, what the other teams are doing. When I’ve had conversations here, with executives from other teams who know [first-year Washington general manager] Adam Peters well, know the situation well, the most popular answer for what they do at No. 2 is J.J. McCarthy,” NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero said. Hottest rumor from League Meetings - ( New Window )
RE: Must be all the kind words coming out from Harbaugh on his boy JJ
I'm curious what intel drives the oddsmakers to change? Is it the bets or internet rumors?
It's gotta be money they need to balance the money going in all directions. The money probably started flowing in on all the rumor coming out of the owners meeting so the drop the odds. To cool off the money flow.
Yesterday a $100 bet would have won you $2500. Today that same bet would get you $400. This would indicate someone who matters has received information about McCarthy being picked high.
AND* sportsbooks surely took more $$ on him yesterday morning, which influences the line
Since it's only a "yes" bet, with no counterpoint, they can set the odd they want, the lower the better and it doesn't mean much. The only thing it says is Vegas is "scared" he might be the 2nd pick so they won't let people have a +2500 odd, but I'm sure if you could bet on him NOT being the 2nd pick, the odds would be much higher than only +400. Probably around +4000.
Vegas isn't dumb, dumb is the guy that place this bet at +400 just because it dropped from +2500 in a day.
He’s much better under pressure statistically than Maye. He’s actually my first choice at QB and think it’s unrealistic to hope he’ll be available without a big trade up.
RE: RE: Last year Levis was favored to go #2 a few days before the draft
I'm curious what intel drives the oddsmakers to change? Is it the bets or internet rumors?
It's gotta be money they need to balance the money going in all directions. The money probably started flowing in on all the rumor coming out of the owners meeting so the drop the odds. To cool off the money flow.
Interesting. I'm not a gambler, but that makes a lot of sense.
But I think #2 is a bit of a stretch. There seems to be a portion of the population who are not very high on Maye based on some of what he showed on tape. For those teams, I can see some preferring JJM to Maye. But Daniels and Maye are very different prospects and the percentage out there who prefer JJM over both Daniels and Maye would be pretty low, I would guess.
2018 Browns going Mayfield over Darnold.
2021 49ers going Lance over Mac Jones.
25-1 is +2500
4-1 is +400
So a significant jump, but my guess it equates to NFL Network saying that Peters talk around the league about McCarthy to commanders
+400 is 5-1 odds
Yesterday a $100 bet would have won you $2500. Today that same bet would get you $400. This would indicate someone who matters has received information about McCarthy being picked high.
+400 is 4-1, so it's a massive difference. The implied probabilities are 3.8% for the former, 20% for the latter.
“Everybody’s always trying to figure out, especially at the top of the draft, what the other teams are doing. When I’ve had conversations here, with executives from other teams who know [first-year Washington general manager] Adam Peters well, know the situation well, the most popular answer for what they do at No. 2 is J.J. McCarthy,” NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero said.
Hottest rumor from League Meetings - ( New Window )
You need to watch his pro day. It was the best pro day ever - per Harbaugh.
Quote:
these days.
You need to watch his pro day. It was the best pro day ever - per Harbaugh.
I heard it went well.
They had the plays beforehand as usual.
It's gotta be money they need to balance the money going in all directions. The money probably started flowing in on all the rumor coming out of the owners meeting so the drop the odds. To cool off the money flow.
Great Question! I was wondering the same thing.
Cool
Quote:
...what's thge difference in 25-1 and +400?
Yesterday a $100 bet would have won you $2500. Today that same bet would get you $400. This would indicate someone who matters has received information about McCarthy being picked high.
AND* sportsbooks surely took more $$ on him yesterday morning, which influences the line
Vegas isn't dumb, dumb is the guy that place this bet at +400 just because it dropped from +2500 in a day.
Quote:
I'm curious what intel drives the oddsmakers to change? Is it the bets or internet rumors?
It's gotta be money they need to balance the money going in all directions. The money probably started flowing in on all the rumor coming out of the owners meeting so the drop the odds. To cool off the money flow.
Interesting. I'm not a gambler, but that makes a lot of sense.
Vegas puts out odds as plus or minus X00....
Convert them into a ratio by dividing by 100.
+2500 (bet 100 to win 2500) is 25:1. -300 (bet 300 to win 100) would be 1:3
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...I'm simple. If it is 25-1 and it moves to +400, which is 4-1, why not just call it 4-1 (or 5-1...)?
Vegas puts out odds as plus or minus X00....
Convert them into a ratio by dividing by 100.
+2500 (bet 100 to win 2500) is 25:1. -300 (bet 300 to win 100) would be 1:3
I should that this way eliminates decimals/fractions which typically aren't used in betting ratios anyway or rewriting the ratio.
For example +150 is your typical payout on getting a blackjack, so 1.5:1. But if you sit down at a blackjack table the felt says "blackjack pays 3:2"
For the win