A half century obsession with the NFL Draft has led me to categorize Top NFL Draft Prospects into one of five narrative arcs:
(1) They rise on Mock Draft Boards and are selected relatively high.
(2) They fall on Mock Draft Boards and are selected relatively low.
(3) They rise on Mock Draft Boards but then fall back down and are selected relatively low.
(4) They fall on Mock Draft Boards but then rise back up and are selected relatively high.
(5) They pretty much stay put on Mock Draft Boards and more or less end up being selected where they were origianlly Mocked.
Just have a hunch that J.J. McCarthy ends up in Scenario 3. In his particular case that would mean starting outside the Top 20 Draft Prospects, rising up to as high as #2/#3 on several Mock Draf Boards, but ultimately falling outside the Top 10 and being drafted somewhere between 11 - 15, maybe even lower. Just a hunch.
JJM is surely going in the top 15, quite possibly the top 10 and an outside shot at top 4..
Bo Nix is the guy pop in the top 15 if the first four QB's are gone.
LAC is the team to watch.. If they truly want to reset expectations, clear off huge cap numbers and build around Harbaugh's guy then Herbert could be on the trading block. I doubt they will but if it were me, I would consider it as the haul would be huge
The op sounds like throwing darts is the arc of media draft boards.
This needs to be pinned to the top of the board. Mock drafts are just the NFL version of March Madness brackets but get treated like they're some standard the league adheres to
The op sounds like throwing darts is the arc of media draft boards.
Definitely the media.
JJM is surely going in the top 15, quite possibly the top 10 and an outside shot at top 4..
Bo Nix is the guy pop in the top 15 if the first four QB's are gone.
LAC is the team to watch.. If they truly want to reset expectations, clear off huge cap numbers and build around Harbaugh's guy then Herbert could be on the trading block. I doubt they will but if it were me, I would consider it as the haul would be huge
I disagree that this needs to be pinned. There's a lot of dodgy logic. JJM is certain to go top 15? Probably, sure. But this could all be smoke.
And Harbaugh might deal Hwrbert. It's absurd. Harbaugh took the LAC job because of Herbert. There was no other pull for that job. The Chargers are the worst franchise in the NFL. Faceless, cheap, second tier in their own city and state. If it wasn't for Herbert, Harbaugh wouldn't be there.
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within the NFL community itself, it is the pundits, the media and the fans that rise and fall...
This needs to be pinned to the top of the board. Mock drafts are just the NFL version of March Madness brackets but get treated like they're some standard the league adheres to
Of course “risers” and “fallers” are mainly a function of the media. But NFL Draft Boards are hardly static and there are indeed changes as more information is acquired about the prospect.
Yes, but again, you have no idea what NFL draft boards look like. So you're basically talking out of your ass at this point.
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within the NFL community itself, it is the pundits, the media and the fans that rise and fall...
JJM is surely going in the top 15, quite possibly the top 10 and an outside shot at top 4..
Bo Nix is the guy pop in the top 15 if the first four QB's are gone.
LAC is the team to watch.. If they truly want to reset expectations, clear off huge cap numbers and build around Harbaugh's guy then Herbert could be on the trading block. I doubt they will but if it were me, I would consider it as the haul would be huge
I disagree that this needs to be pinned. There's a lot of dodgy logic. JJM is certain to go top 15? Probably, sure. But this could all be smoke.
And Harbaugh might deal Hwrbert. It's absurd. Harbaugh took the LAC job because of Herbert. There was no other pull for that job. The Chargers are the worst franchise in the NFL. Faceless, cheap, second tier in their own city and state. If it wasn't for Herbert, Harbaugh wouldn't be there.
He clearly meant my point about risers and fallers- not my assertion on where players will go..
Yes, but again, you have no idea what NFL draft boards look like. So you're basically talking out of your ass at this point.
Agreed Eric. This bullshit of believe some media when it fits your narrative or when it fits your anti narrative (ie I think this is a joke run by clowns and look at this mock draft that has that team taking the guy I don't like, see clowns..).
I go back to 2018. Nobody had Baker Mayfield going to the Browns until late in the day of the draft- when rumors started to swirl.. BUT, if you knew what the Browns thought, the Jets, Giants etc. maybe you would have seen Mayfield was their guy all along. But instead we run with media folks saying this or that- which by the way they have to have new content daily for their jobs-and suddenly that becomes the rising and falling talk... What if the Patriots have JJM as QB 1 or Washington actually likes Nix and Pennix close enough to the other QB's that they are willing to get a WR first and then their QB later in 1 or top of 2.. What if Maye is actually QB4 on most teams lists but QB1 on the Gmen..
This idea that any team is reaching is crazy because NONE of these guys are surefire gimmes...
The only way some guys FALL is if a medical comes out that teams didn't know about until now. For all we know, the Giants might not have a guy like Pennix on their list at all because of his injury history.
The NFL teams, 32 of them, all have their own boards and teams do talk to each other. I am sure the Giants know what the Bears and Commanders are planning on doing and have talked with NE about a possible move to 3. You have to have honest conversations in order to mov (IE we like Maye, if he is at 3 we want to move up and get him- ok, but we prefer Maye too. If Maye goes to Washington then we would be willing to move out of that spot if you still want to come up.. That kind of thing...
No NFL team is like holy shit I can't believe they just drafted Thomas Lewis in the first round... (ugh, hated that draft and draft party I was at).
Yes, but again, you have no idea what NFL draft boards look like. So you're basically talking out of your ass at this point.
If you are saying I am guessing as to where JJ McCarthy goes... that is correct. It's just a hunch that media Mock Draft Boards have pushed him up too high. But who thought it was something other than a guess?
Which was where most people thought he'd be before the offseason started.
Why do you seem to have the need to clarify this?
Why do you seem to have the need to clarify this?
Because posters routinely go "but he was a secind round pick six weeks ago in all the mocks! It's impossible he could be a top ten pick now"
If you are saying that "Risers" & "Fallers" in media Mock Drafts can reflect what the media is hearing from NFL team insiders... I think there's a good deal of truth in that. The problem is that the NFL insider whisperers cut both ways -- there are facts and there is B.S.
In essence, you are saying McCarthy is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck.
Are you sure about that?
Is there anyone on this thread who either thinks or wrote otherwise?
Is there anyone on this thread who thought or wrote otherwise?
I agree with the poster who said teams may have different rankings of the QB's than what most are saying.
I am not seeing this "Big 3" concept aging well.
That would be a huge surprise as I believe Daniels is the 1b QB in this draft and the most ready to produce in the NFL out the gate. Nonetheless, I'd be much less shocked than most as I think JJM is the clear 3rd best prospect in the draft and I see him becoming elite with the right coaching and situation. He checks every single box besides with A's besides the touch on intermediate to deep throws, which will be exponentially improved by changing his throwing motion like Josh Allen did in 2020. Josh Allen had this same issue with accuracy and touch on intermediate to deep throws due to an inefficient overthetop, baseball style throwing motion vs an efficient core-based rotation. JJM is the best QB in the draft when pressured. I believe he has the mental makeup required to be elite, which is the biggest factor of all imo. JJM and Daniels have the highest floors for QBs in the draft while still having elite ceilings imo. I'd argue JJM has a higher floor than Daniels even due to Daniels being a running QB with a slender frame.
I see less of a chance of CW going pick 1 than I do seeing JJM slide outside the top 10, both are surefire bets imo. I think your point about the media being wrong in their prognostications is usually moreso with players going later than the media thought than media thought like Levis last year. When so many pros and NFL insiders report they really like a guy and he is going top 10, maybe even pick 2, that isn't the media talking, it's NFL evaluators.
I have no clue what will happen and who will be good, but history shows its unlikely all 4 "top" QBs for in the top 6.
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just mock drafts, as much fun as they are. Just because McCarthy wasn't considered a top 5 pick 6 months ago by these publications means absolutely nothing.
Is there anyone on this thread who thought or wrote otherwise?
Well, by the way you wrote the thread you appear to be valuing early pundits opinions of McCarthy too highly while neglecting to see how many NFL evaluators (former GMs, current GMs, scouts, former pros, coaches, etc) are proponents of JJM as a great QB prospect.
I have no clue what will happen and who will be good, but history shows its unlikely all 4 "top" QBs for in the top 6.
What did NFL people say about the 2022 QB class? I seem to remember many actual NFL evaluators and insiders saying it was a bad draft class with little to no great QB prospects.
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Remember in 2022 when mocks had Pickett, Willis, Ridder, and maybe Corral all going in RD 1? Closely followed by guys like Howell, Zappe, and yes Strong from Utah? Outside of Pickett they all went Rd 3 and worse, and frankly it now looks like teams stretched to take them there. Corral is with the Birmingham Stallions, teams have basically given up on Pickett, Ridder, and Howell as starters, and I have no idea what happens this season to Willis (who has only thrown 35 passes in his 2 year NFL career). Some had Willis going in the top 10.
I have no clue what will happen and who will be good, but history shows its unlikely all 4 "top" QBs for in the top 6.
What did NFL people say about the 2022 QB class? I seem to remember many actual NFL evaluators and insiders saying it was a bad draft class with little to no great QB prospects.
That's the point right. Mock drafts and social media were meaningless, the NFL guys got it right. There was a big discrepancy, although the NFL guys don't say anything before the draft usually
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In comment 16448701 barens said:
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just mock drafts, as much fun as they are. Just because McCarthy wasn't considered a top 5 pick 6 months ago by these publications means absolutely nothing.
Is there anyone on this thread who thought or wrote otherwise?
Well, by the way you wrote the thread you appear to be valuing early pundits opinions of McCarthy too highly while neglecting to see how many NFL evaluators (former GMs, current GMs, scouts, former pros, coaches, etc) are proponents of JJM as a great QB prospect.
Re-read my thread-starter and subsequent comments. I’m afraid you and I are just on different wave lengths for this one. No prob.
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just mock drafts, as much fun as they are. Just because McCarthy wasn't considered a top 5 pick 6 months ago by these publications means absolutely nothing.
Is there anyone on this thread who thought or wrote otherwise?
In this specific thread? No. But it's been a common refrain on here as well as other social media sites.
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In comment 16448772 PatersonPlank said:
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Remember in 2022 when mocks had Pickett, Willis, Ridder, and maybe Corral all going in RD 1? Closely followed by guys like Howell, Zappe, and yes Strong from Utah? Outside of Pickett they all went Rd 3 and worse, and frankly it now looks like teams stretched to take them there. Corral is with the Birmingham Stallions, teams have basically given up on Pickett, Ridder, and Howell as starters, and I have no idea what happens this season to Willis (who has only thrown 35 passes in his 2 year NFL career). Some had Willis going in the top 10.
I have no clue what will happen and who will be good, but history shows its unlikely all 4 "top" QBs for in the top 6.
What did NFL people say about the 2022 QB class? I seem to remember many actual NFL evaluators and insiders saying it was a bad draft class with little to no great QB prospects.
That's the point right. Mock drafts and social media were meaningless, the NFL guys got it right. There was a big discrepancy, although the NFL guys don't say anything before the draft usually
And this year we have NFL insiders saying it is an exceptional QB class, something our front office even told Mara. So yeah, the media got it wrong on JJM imo and many are still stubbornly holding onto that like Mel Kiper Jr predicting JJM will slide to the Vikings pick at 11.
JJM will have to play at least a season or two before we can properly debate where he should have been drafted. Just like all the rest.
JJM will have to play at least a season or two before we can properly debate where he should have been drafted. Just like all the rest.
I beg to differ.
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of what people want to hear and what GMs hope to find.
JJM will have to play at least a season or two before we can properly debate where he should have been drafted. Just like all the rest.
I beg to differ.
Ok, with what?
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In comment 16448357 jvm52106 said:
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within the NFL community itself, it is the pundits, the media and the fans that rise and fall...
JJM is surely going in the top 15, quite possibly the top 10 and an outside shot at top 4..
Bo Nix is the guy pop in the top 15 if the first four QB's are gone.
LAC is the team to watch.. If they truly want to reset expectations, clear off huge cap numbers and build around Harbaugh's guy then Herbert could be on the trading block. I doubt they will but if it were me, I would consider it as the haul would be huge
I disagree that this needs to be pinned. There's a lot of dodgy logic. JJM is certain to go top 15? Probably, sure. But this could all be smoke.
And Harbaugh might deal Hwrbert. It's absurd. Harbaugh took the LAC job because of Herbert. There was no other pull for that job. The Chargers are the worst franchise in the NFL. Faceless, cheap, second tier in their own city and state. If it wasn't for Herbert, Harbaugh wouldn't be there.
He clearly meant my point about risers and fallers- not my assertion on where players will go..
I'm not even certain about risers and fallers not being real. There was an interesting observation from someone on a podcast. He said Coaches get more heavily involved in player evals in Feb and March. before that it is mostly scouts. And he felt scouts are more focused on raw traits and coaches have a wider view and are more excited about what JJM brings to the table: plays on schedule, plays well in structure, disciplined, etc. And what you may be seeing with the changing landscape is the pov of coaches getting incorporated into the evaluations.
I've read all the threads that mention the trading of Justin Herbert, but my assumption is that Jim Harbaugh does not want to step on his jones before he even coaches a single Chargers game.
The statements of him playing in a NFL system just means he played in a system we see in the league with the same or similar concepts, and formations. He controls the LOS, makes calls, draws audibles, and motioning others. This is what several
former players who are in the media have said. Lincoln Riley guys have been used in a particular way (in the pros) to mask their issues, one example.
It isn't a buzzword. That belongs to "the safest player in the draft" which never seems to pan out.
The cap math wouldn't work even if he wanted to. He has a lot of guaranteed money and we have DJ's contract which will be to the tune of close to 70 million over the next two years at minimum.