Giants Stay Put At #6; QB4 & MHJ Are Available

If it's Maye, sprint to the podium and take Maye.

If it's McCarthy, sprint to the podium and take MHJ

Add a WR in later round.

That said, I’m taking Maye or McCarthy and not looking back.

I’m going to address WR (and hopefully RB) in rounds 2 and 3 so I can have a young play making corps to grow up together along with Hyatt and Robinson.

Something like: JJM/Leggette/Corum or Maye/Benson/Pearsall

Then I’m going defense on day 3.

if not you take the highest graded guy (in this case either MHJ or Odunze). If someone makes you an overwhelming trade offer you like you consider it, but as we learned the hard way in 2021, you dont want to go so far that you lose control of the board.

I want to win now and not develop a QB who may or may not work out. None of these guys are Andrew Luck or peyton Manning coming out.

In comment 16451447 Sammo85 said:

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Add a WR in later round.

This.

He is the best player in this draft

It's as simple as that for me. WR isn't hard to find. I don't care about value with QB, you either have a first round grade on the guy or you don't.

In comment 16451454 AROCK1000 said:

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He is the best player in this draft

And so was Saquon. How'd that go?

then they’re not sold on QB3, much less QB4. In this scenario they take Harrison.

In comment 16451457 Sean said:

Quote:

In comment 16451454 AROCK1000 said: Quote: He is the best player in this draft And so was Saquon. How'd that go?

better than rosen or darnold not as good as allen or lamar.

In comment 16451457 Sean said:

Quote:

In comment 16451454 AROCK1000 said: Quote: He is the best player in this draft And so was Saquon. How'd that go?

WR is a better investment and lower injury risk than RB in today’s NFL. I don’t think the two situations are comparable. We are also picking at 6 with the top 2-3 QB’s already gone vs. picking #2 in 2018.

for me if the grade matches up.

I think MHJ is the best player in the draft, but the team needs QB. MHJ is going to be a monster IMO. Player #1 vs QB4?

In comment 16451454 AROCK1000 said:

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He is the best player in this draft

If Caleb Williams is merely good, say top 10, he is 3 times as valuable on a points per game basis, than MHJ is if he is the best WR in the game. Going from memory the best WRs are worth about 2 points per game, very good QBs about 5-6 ppg, and great QBs 8-9 ppg. Caleb Williams is the most prized player in this draft for a reason.

want Maye but will pivot to Pennix if Maye is already gone.
Asshat Thread - ( New Window )

In comment 16451457 Sean said:

Quote:

In comment 16451454 AROCK1000 said: Quote: He is the best player in this draft And so was Saquon. How'd that go?

A WR has more value and longevity than a RB.

and then trade up from 47 (would give up 2025 draft capital) to get Nix or Penix...and we need a DT and CB in the 3rd and/or 4th round, before we take a RB.

.

WR1 - MHJ
WR2 - Hyatt
WR3 - Robinson
RB1 - Singletary

Not too shabby.

TE1 - Waller/Bellinger/???

Not great.

Starting day QB is Jones/Lock

Not great.

.

In comment 16451446 Anakim said:

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If it's Maye, sprint to the podium and take Maye. If it's McCarthy, sprint to the podium and take MHJ

This is where I stand, I don’t want them trading up or down. I would prefer WR

In comment 16451472 Pete in MD said:

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I think MHJ is the best player in the draft, but the team needs QB. MHJ is going to be a monster IMO. Player #1 vs QB4?

Exactly and if we miss here with QB what a huge mistake that would be
I'm not saying that's what drives the decision, but it's part of the calculus

There is no chance that their big board doesn't have MHJ higher. I can't imagine their draft board being

QB
QB
QB
QB
WR

The Giants as an organization are way too traditional to force the QB based on the optics alone. Imagine the media after every game when MHJ is growing into his top level WR career.

Play the floor/ceiling game. Barrign injury, the floor for MHJ is Amani Toomer and the ceiling is his father.

The floor for the remainder Maye or McCarthy could be Josh Rosen and the ceiling could be Josh Allen.

The better question and the one you should be asking is what if the #1 or #2 QB on their board is sitting there at 4 and so is MHJ.

but I see it going...

1.Caleb Williams
2.Jayden Daniels
3 Drake Maye
4 M Harrison
5.M.Nabers

and then the Giants are on the clock....

In comment 16451460 Pepe LePugh said:

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then they’re not sold on QB3, much less QB4. In this scenario they take Harrison.

Or maybe they know who the Vikings liked and preferred the other guy. Possible?

In comment 16451446 Anakim said:

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If it's Maye, sprint to the podium and take Maye. If it's McCarthy, sprint to the podium and take MHJ

this

In comment 16451493 retiredmz said:

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but I see it going... 1.Caleb Williams 2.Jayden Daniels 3 Drake Maye 4 M Harrison 5.M.Nabers and then the Giants are on the clock....

I agree with this, though I could also see Daniels and Maye flipped. That's the biggest question to me. Does Washington go JD or DM?

I doubt the Chargers pass on one of the 3 WRs for OT Alt, but it is at least plausible, especially with J Harbaugh, so I included it.

Rather than:
but I see it going...

1.Caleb Williams
2.Jayden Daniels
3 Drake Maye
4 M Harrison
5.M.Nabers

I see it going...

1.Caleb Williams
2.Jayden Daniels
3 Drake Maye or JJ McCarthy
4 M Harrison
5.JJ McCarthy or Drake Maye

So the Giants choice will likely be Nabers, Odunze or trade down.

...

In comment 16451489 AROCK1000 said:

Quote:

In comment 16451472 Pete in MD said: Quote: I think MHJ is the best player in the draft, but the team needs QB. MHJ is going to be a monster IMO. Player #1 vs QB4? Exactly and if we miss here with QB what a huge mistake that would be I'm not saying that's what drives the decision, but it's part of the calculus

Drafting scared is part of the calculus?

Comfortable with JJ or maye. I think this can be a good situation for a young QB. Sit for a year and learn. Give us another your to build up the line and get some more skill players

In comment 16451502 Trainmaster said:

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I doubt the Chargers pass on one of the 3 WRs for OT Alt, but it is at least plausible, especially with J Harbaugh, so I included it. Rather than: but I see it going... 1.Caleb Williams 2.Jayden Daniels 3 Drake Maye 4 M Harrison 5.M.Nabers I see it going... 1.Caleb Williams 2.Jayden Daniels 3 Drake Maye or JJ McCarthy 4 M Harrison 5.JJ McCarthy or Drake Maye So the Giants choice will likely be Nabers, Odunze or trade down.

The Chargers would be the Giants best trade partner if it fell that way. Drop only one spot and have a chance at Nabers if Harrison goes the pick before.

This question is the heart of the matter.

Giants don't have a QB. And you can't win without a QB. However, they will be selecting the 4th QB taken. If he pans out as a top tier QB, then obviously it is the right move. If he fails, then the regime is gone. At the same time, if the Giants stand pat with what they have now at QB, they are likely gone.

On the flip side, if the QB is ordinary or busts, and Harrison goes onto a HOF career with another team...


This is a really tough question, but it's the heart of the matter.

In comment 16451452 Scooter185 said:

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In comment 16451447 Sammo85 said: Quote: Add a WR in later round. This.

+2.

In comment 16451511 Eric from BBI said:

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This question is the heart of the matter. Giants don't have a QB. And you can't win without a QB. However, they will be selecting the 4th QB taken. If he pans out as a top tier QB, then obviously it is the right move. If he fails, then the regime is gone. At the same time, if the Giants stand pat with what they have now at QB, they are likely gone. On the flip side, if the QB is ordinary or busts, and Harrison goes onto a HOF career with another team... This is a really tough question, but it's the heart of the matter.

Yup.

This is up to JS and BD to make this decision as to whether they love any of the quarterbacks that are left.

In comment 16451511 Eric from BBI said:

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This question is the heart of the matter. Giants don't have a QB. And you can't win without a QB. However, they will be selecting the 4th QB taken. If he pans out as a top tier QB, then obviously it is the right move. If he fails, then the regime is gone. At the same time, if the Giants stand pat with what they have now at QB, they are likely gone. On the flip side, if the QB is ordinary or busts, and Harrison goes onto a HOF career with another team... This is a really tough question, but it's the heart of the matter.

Is the 4th QB taken the 4th QB on the Giants rankings of QBs, or maybe he's the 2nd or 3rd Giants ranked QB is what I would like to know.

That's also a possibility.

As I've been harping on for some time too, the top QBs often bust while the guys taken later succeed. There is no rhyme or reason to it.

But we have a pretty darn good idea that Odunze, Harrison, and Nabers are going to be really good.

Eric, as I read through all the threads, mocks etc., without a trade up I see the Giants choice coming down to WR1 or even WR2 versus QB4 being that issue (hence my thread).


What if the 3 QBs taken before the Giants picked were their top 3 ranked QBs (i.e. 4th QB is their QB4)?

And what if their WR1 (probably MHJ or maybe Nabers) is still available?

A Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson type WR, with even decent OL protection could make an average at best (Jones, Lock) QB look much better.

In comment 16451536 Trainmaster said:

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Eric, as I read through all the threads, mocks etc., without a trade up I see the Giants choice coming down to WR1 or even WR2 versus QB4 being that issue (hence my thread). What if the 3 QBs taken before the Giants picked were their top 3 ranked QBs (i.e. 4th QB is their QB4)? And what if their WR1 (probably MHJ or maybe Nabers) is still available? A Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson type WR, with even decent OL protection could make an average at best (Jones, Lock) QB look much better.

No WR is making our QB room look better.

Rather than look at 1983 (other thread), let's look a the first 4 QBs drafted versus the first 3 WRs in the last 4 drafts.

2023 (too early to judge QB4 vs WR1 or WR2):
1 - B Young
2 - C Stroud
4 - A Richardson
33 - W Levis

20 - J Smith-Njibga
21 - Q Johnston
22 - Z Flowers


2022 (Putrid QB class, WRs much better than QBs)
20 - K Pickett
74 - D Ridder
86 - M Willis
94 - M Corral
(262 - B Purdy)

8 - D London
10 - G Wilson
11 - C Olave


2021 (I like WR1, WR2 & WR3 over QB2, QB3 & QB4)
1 - T Lawrence
2 - Z Wilson
3 - T Lance
11 - J Fields

5 - J Chase
6 - J Waddle
10 - D Smith
(20 - D Toney) - Ugh


2020 (QB1, QB2, QB3 & QB4 better than WR1, WR2 & WR3)
1 - J Burrow
5 - T Tagovailoa
6 - J Herbert
26 - J Love

12 - H Ruggs
15 - J Jeudy
17 - C Lamb

A real crapshoot, as often stated.

In comment 16451446 Anakim said:

Quote:

If it's Maye, sprint to the podium and take Maye. If it's McCarthy, sprint to the podium and take MHJ

I'm with this

Would be willing to bet that Schoen has Maye as the #2 or #1 player in the draft. And Harrison would likely be #3.

I would take Harrison if Maye is gone.

on how highly the Giants rank the available QB's. You won't know this until they draft

Mayes or McCarthy both have bust written all over them. Take the best WR prospect in years Harrison jr.

.

In comment 16451653 larryflower37 said:

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Mayes or McCarthy both have bust written all over them. Take the best WR prospect in years Harrison jr.

Maye has arguably the best arm talent in the entire draft, and had an incredible 2022 season. How does he have bust written all over him?

Trade back up for penix

I see it as a 6 QB draft. One of QB4, Penix, Nix or MHJ will be there at 9 in that scenario.

If trading down isn’t an option I take best available QB at 6. No matter who is available. Period.

In comment 16451735 chiro56 said:

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Trade back up for penix

Take MHJ, and trade up for Penix. We lost a super star talent in Barkley, the Giants offense now desperately needs an elite talent to fill that hole.

Both McCarthy (my preference) and Maye have franchise QB upside.

This isn't a situation where you play it safe. You need to get a franchise QB, if you're not going to try with one of these young men, when will it be the time?

If it's Joe Shoens 4th ranked QB I would hope he would pass and nake a #1 at another position on his board, like maybe WR1

In comment 16451451 Chip said:

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I want to win now and not develop a QB who may or may not work out. None of these guys are Andrew Luck or peyton Manning coming out.

Which QB currently on the roster are the Giants winning NOW with??

.

I would like Mc Carthy at 6 I think he has the QB acumen to be very good. And with our next pick I would take the best defensive player on the board.

A once in a lifetime WR comes along, you grab him because you'll never get another chance to witness having the greatest WR in the league wearing Giants' blue.

QBs are crap shoots that won't get on the field this season and are "down the road" prospects, and suffering for two or more years of ugly football with a lot of losses. Most QBs fail to live up to the hype showered on them during pre-draft season. All of them are sure things until the moment they're drafted...then it's "reality time".

Basically, it's a decision between rolling the dice or a sure thing. I take the sure thing.

What if Schoen evaluates the QBs and has JJM as his QB4, BUT he sees him as being a massive upgrade on Jones??

Would you still take Nabers or MHJ just because you put a 1 or 2 after WR for them?

All these discussions are rhetoric. It comes down to the Giants evaluation. I think they will be thorough because JS has so far SHOWN himself to be thorough. If these QBs grade out high enough (and there is EVERY indication they will), then he HAS to do whatever he needs to, to get HIS QB.

will push QB higher up the Giants draft board. There's a limit, though.

All depends on the grade pre adjustment for need. If the 4th QB is close enough to the WR, need will leapfrog MHJ.

Two things:
There's no such thing as a sure thing.
IF N is the first WR taken, the team taking him doesn't rank MHJ as the best prospect in the draft.

Prognosticating a player as a safe or sure bet. I don’t care how dominant or god like they look in college.

There’s a lot of variables and factors at play both in how players were used and developed in college, the adversity or lack thereof, unknown about future teams and health that play into it.

There are no sure things. None.

I remember this place in 2018 and how upset everyone was (including me) that we did not get one of them. God knows where Rosen is and Darnold is a career backup and Barkley despite all the injuries turned out to be a good draft choice for the team. He would have been even better if the team had ever developed an OL. Take the highest rated player we have on the Board at 6 and move on. I would be shocked if we really have QB 3 or 4 rated higher than the top WRs but if so then go for it. This team needs too much to be reaching with a high draft pick.

You are looking at the very real possibility of wasting the first two years of his career because you don’t have a QB who can throw a downfield pass. This year you have Jones and Lock who are known quantities, and then next year you probably have a veteran for a few games and then a rookie.

I am not opposed to getting a WR if the QB is just not there, but you have to realize you are putting that WR in a really bad spot to succeed. I would much rather get a QB in Rd 1 and a WR in Rd 2 since this draft is so deep in the latter.

We would be in position to get a potential franchise QB without paying a ransom to move up in the draft. I don't care how good of a prospect Harrison is, you get your QB. In addition, there are several good to great WR prospects in every draft. It's much easier to draft a WR1 than a good QB.

Nobody is losing their job over drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. Somebody is losing their job over McCarthy

I agree there are no “sure things” but MHJ is as close as it gets.

The NFL has gotten really good at scouting receivers, not so much at QB, OL. I’ve brought this up in other threads, but over the last 20 years 33% of WR’s drafted in the top 6 have gone on to have HOF careers. The biggest misses (Watkins, Davis) we’re still starting caliber players. Watkins was a miss because he was injury prone (+ a spread offense quick pass merchant in college). Davis was over-drafted, in a weak class. Plus he played in the MAC…he would be WR6 or 7 in this class…

If you research is correct (and I don't doubt it), that is another factor in the mix.

It seems like most successful NFL QBs these days are first round picks. Purdy, Prescott and Cousins are successful non 1st round QBs off the top of my head.

A lot of top 6 QBs are busts. And often it's not QB1 or even QB2 that turns out the best:

2017:
QB1 - 2 - Trubisky Chi BUST
QB2 - 10 - Mahomes KC BEST
QB3 - 12 - Watson Hou

2018:
QB1 - 1 - Mayfield Clev
QB2 - 3 - Darnold NYJ BUST
QB3 - 7 - Allen Buff BEST
QB4 - 10 - Rosen Ariz BUST

2019:
QB1 - 1 - Murray Ariz BEST ???
QB2 - 6 - Jones NYG
QB3 - 15 - Haskins Wash BUST
QB4 - 42 - Lock Den

2020:
QB1 - 1 - Burrow Cinn BEST?
QB2 - 5 - Tagovailoa Mia
QB3 - 6 - Herbert LAC
QB4 - 26 - Love GB
QB5 - 53 - Hurts Phil

2021:
QB1 - 1 - Lawrence Jack BEST
QB2 - 2 - Wilson NYJ BUST
QB3 - 3 - Lance SF BUST
QB4 - 11 - Fields Chi
QB5 - 15 - Jones NE BUST

2022:
QB1 - 20 - Pickett Pitt
QB2 - 74 - Ridder Atl
QB3 - 86 - Willis Ten
QB4 - 94 - Corral Car
QB9 - 262 - Purdy SF

Observations:

1) Some years, the multiple teams think there are potential franchise QBs in the top 12 and it works out for multiple teams (2020),

2) Some years the whole league knows the QB class is weak, with no QBs in the top 12 (2022).

3) In many / most years, there are mulitple QBs taken in the top 12 and after a few year, there are clear BESTs and BUSTs (2017, 2018, 2021).

Not having a franchise QB is a major problem. Spending a top 12 pick on a potential franchise QB and drafint a bust is a major problem.

Hopefully all the apparent time and effort the Giants are spending on the 2024 QB class will pan out.

Passing on a top 12 QB that has a non-trivial concern they could turn out to be a bust and grabbing a much more likely star WR isn't a bad way to go IMHO.

In comment 16451838 Jeffrey said:

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I remember this place in 2018 and how upset everyone was (including me) that we did not get one of them. God knows where Rosen is and Darnold is a career backup and Barkley despite all the injuries turned out to be a good draft choice for the team. He would have been even better if the team had ever developed an OL. Take the highest rated player we have on the Board at 6 and move on. I would be shocked if we really have QB 3 or 4 rated higher than the top WRs but if so then go for it. This team needs too much to be reaching with a high draft pick.

If that player is a RB, IMO you never draft him that high.

In comment 16451776 mavric said:

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A once in a lifetime WR comes along, you grab him because you'll never get another chance to witness having the greatest WR in the league wearing Giants' blue. QBs are crap shoots that won't get on the field this season and are "down the road" prospects, and suffering for two or more years of ugly football with a lot of losses. Most QBs fail to live up to the hype showered on them during pre-draft season. All of them are sure things until the moment they're drafted...then it's "reality time". Basically, it's a decision between rolling the dice or a sure thing. I take the sure thing.

You guys with the hyperbole. He might not even be the best WR is this draft. And the likelihood is that he will not be as valuable as either Caleb or Jayden, and any other QB who fashions a good career.

This is another angle on the discussion; positional value.

Brock Bowers seems like another very safe pick. 3 time All American. 3 down tight end. A very likely position of need for the Giants.

But "positional value", dictates not taking a TE this high. IF Bowers would turn out to be another Kittle or Kelse, is it too high?

I think positional value / cap management says a top 10 pick should be:

1) QB


2) Edge
3) WR
4) DT
5) OT
6) DE
7) CB


8) S

9) TE
10 RB




11) P/K

Quote:

The exclusive tag numbers will not be known until after the restricted free agency period. Position Non-exclusive tag value Transition tag value Quarterback $38 million $34 million Linebacker $24 million $20 million Wide receiver $22 million $20 million Defensive tackle $22 million $18 million Offensive line $21 million $19 million Defensive end $21 million $19 million Cornerback $20 million $17 million Safety $17 million $14 million Tight end $13 million $11 million Running back $12 million $10 million Kicker/punter $6 million $5 million

IF you are highly confident in a QB worth a top 10 pick, cap space says you draft him as there is a hugh gap between QB and not QBs and the next few positions are very closely grouped (more closely than I would have guessed).

Sporting News: NFL franchise tags, explained: Updated position values, deadlines and rules to know for 2024 - ( New Window )

In comment 16451749 Fifty Six said:

Quote:

If it's Joe Shoens 4th ranked QB I would hope he would pass and nake a #1 at another position on his board, like maybe WR1

It honestly doesn't matter a single bit on what the rank of the QB is relative to the rest of the class. What matters is if you have a good enough grade to take the player at 6. I think JJM and Maye both have a high enough grade to take them at 6. Both are players that have enormous upside.

If they meet a grade that historically speaking would be worth the pick, it's fine. You only have trouble if he doesn't meet the grade and take him, which means you probably missed on your grade rather than intentionally reached.

I had DJ as a 2nd rounder. Sy had him similarly graded, what did DG have? Probably a solid first round grade on him to take him at 6.