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Is drafting a QB more or less difficult in this era?

eric2425ny : 4/1/2024 2:14 pm
I find myself wavering on this question. With the decline in line quality league wide (primarily due to use of spread offenses at the college level), mobility has become way more important than it was a few years back.

That being said, does that make finding a QB more or less difficult? One part of me feels that mobility provides not just the rushing yards on broken down plays or even designed runs, but also provides receivers more time to get open which can make the “perfect throw” not quite as important as it once was when you had that statue QB relying on some pocket movement but mainly arm talent.

At the same time mobile QB’s tend to get hurt more often.
Maybe I don't history well enough  
Pork Chop : 4/1/2024 2:23 pm : link
but it seems like there are more big misses than in the past. Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russel, Sam Bradford, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Brandon Weeden, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, and Dwayne Haskins were all back-breaking picks.

Maybe it's because they have to start much sooner than in the past, or maybe I just don't remember the busts from 20+ years ago.
In terms of scouting I think it's probably the same as ever  
Go Terps : 4/1/2024 2:30 pm : link
The big difference is that in 2011 the CBA drastically reduced the penalty for missing on a pick. The last QB to be drafted in the old structure was Sam Bradford. The following year Cam Newton was dressed in the current structure. Both were taken first overall, but look at their rookie contracts:

2010 Sam Bradford: 6-$78M
2011 Cam Newton: 4-$22M

Pre-2011 drafting a QB high in the first round was like getting married. Not so much anymore.

More difficult …  
Spider56 : 4/1/2024 2:37 pm : link
1. College Football is becoming weaker every year with the player transfers, the gimmick offenses and general degradation of the defensive game.

2. Everyone wants instant gratification and few are willing to wait for development to play out. CJStroud was an exception last year … few other star college QBs have shown themselves ready for the pro game and have been fed to the wolves.
I would say difficulty...  
bw in dc : 4/1/2024 2:44 pm : link
is the same as any era. And that's because the evaluation is still more art than science. The college game is still galaxies apart from the NFL game. So, it's incredibly difficult to determine who in college has the right stuff for the NFL.

What does help in today's game is that free agency does give teams an opportunity to solve QB problems much quicker if you are willing to spend and/or find QBs who are better fits...
I would say it has gotten easier for a few reasons  
Mike from Ohio : 4/1/2024 2:55 pm : link
1. There is much more information available. You can break down tape of every single snap these guys take, and you have access to advance statistics to see how they perform in a multitude of situations.

2. There is much more widespread draft analysis, which acts as a sounding board for your own internal analysis. While much of it is amateurish crap, you can use the critiques of others to focus on areas you may have missed as sort of a Devil's Advocate.

3. The NFL game is slowly incorporating more of the college offense concepts which makes the jump from college to NFL slightly less confusing.

4. As Terps mentioned above, with the rookie wage scale you can afford to take a chance on a guy knowing it doesn't financially cripple your team for years the way it used to.
The 1955 Draft saw  
HardTruth : 4/1/2024 3:01 pm : link
George Shaw go # 1 overall abd Johnny Unitas go in the 9th round

Shaw had just 31 starts for 5 teams and threw 41 TDs to 63 ints

In 1979, Jack Thompson went 3rd overall and Joe Montana in round 3

Thompson had 33 TDs to 45 ints.

Selecting QBs has always been hard
David B. : 4/1/2024 4:51 pm : link
Harder for OL too, because (as was mentioned above), the college game is very different, and they're not being developed the way they used to, or, in most cases, for the pro game.

Years ago before free agency it wasn’t unusual  
steve in ky : 4/1/2024 5:14 pm : link
For a qb to sit for years and learn behind a veteran qb. Now with free agency and the salary cap teams are forced to get high draft picks into action ASAP which lends itself to some guys being thrown into the fire too early and hinders their careers. Some guys handle it better than others, but the process probably burns through more guys than in the past
Very few teams allow a young QB to learn  
Rudy5757 : 4/1/2024 7:15 pm : link
On the bench like they did years ago. You basically have to make a decision on a QB in 3 years because you have to decide on the 5th year option.

If you really look at the HOF QBs over the last 30 years. The ones that were most successful sat most or all of their 1st year.

If the Giants draft a QB, I’d like them to start someone else and groom the rookie. Everyone learns differently but I like giving the young QB time to acclimate to the NFL. It just seems like the more successful path to being a good QB
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