QB prospect age - Does it matter to you?

especially in NY with negative and divisive storm creators

I think understanding that ability regardless of age is the key with the QB's, especially since it seems QB's tend to play longer than most positions. Just look at Flacco.

Ideally, you draft a guy like McCarthy or Maye who is 21 and he stays with your franchise their whole career winning a couple Super Bowls, kind of like what Eli and Simms experienced.

That doesn't always happen.

Not sure if it is an advantage for the 23 or 24 year old college QB going against 18, 19 and 20 year old defensive players, but it might be.

on their style of play. If they run a lot and take bad hits it’s important. If they are more of a pocket QB and run out of bounds more than take hits age doesn’t matter as much. With the rules protecting QB’s in the pocket especially they can play forever.

But it's not the be-all, end-all factor. It's just one of the measuring sticks evaluators need to take into account.

but their individual circumstance dictates how much of a factor age is. Generally speaking healthy/longevity have nothing to do with it, however.

Someone doing it for 2/3 years....might have more upside than someone doing it for 4/5 years.

Jones issues are cost and injury...vs the rookies..and add in Up-side as well.

Wasn’t Eli 23 when he was drafted?

In comment 16454044 George from PA said:

Quote:

Someone doing it for 2/3 years....might have more upside than someone doing it for 4/5 years. Jones issues are cost and injury...vs the rookies..and add in Up-side as well.

Cost and injury, yes. But you also left out lack of talent.

Drafting a 28 year old Brandon Weeden in the first round, for example, was idiotic. Even if he panned out, which he didn't, you have him for maybe, what, three or four years before he likely declines? But that's a fairly extreme outlier (Weeden was the oldest first round pick ever).

Eli Manning was 43 days away from turning 24 when he took the field in his first NFL start. That worked out fine.

experience matters, but less so, age.

You do want to do your research and confirm a couple things:

you don't want the 20/21 year old to have just one season of competitive football to make your franchise QB decision around.

you also don't want to the 23/24 year old to be successful simply due to being physically more mature than the competition. There is a significant difference between 23/24 and 18/19.

once you satisfy those two things I don't care about the age. it's a 4 year deal rookie, best case 5th year option and then what? a 5-8 year 2nd contract? the 21 year old is 36/37 at the end of that, the 23 year old is 38/39. who the F cares?

You can go back through the recent past and find examples of successful young (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes were 21 when they were drafted) and older (Burrow and Russell Wilson were 23) picks.

What's really the difference? If you're projecting the player's NFL career out past 2-3 years after they're drafted it's just a wild guess anyway.

a 24 year old should be much further along in their development than a 21 year old. Drafting a player is as much about drafting potential rather than what you get today. There is a natural progression in both body and mind and a guy 3 years older should be performaing better. Plus they already have more wear and tear on the body.

To me if 2 players have a close grade I'm going with the younger player. I wouldnt draft a RB that is 24.

Where it matters is properly evaluating what caused them to have the seasons they did this year. If they made changes that can project to carry over to the NFL that is one thing. Being the most experienced guy and/or playing in the only scheme that can fit their skill set is not likely to carry over.

in the evaluation.

In comment 16454057 US1 Giants said:

Quote:

in the evaluation.

Yes, agreed.

Here's how I think of it, and I suspect pro scouts think somewhat simiarly:

A younger player has more time to physically and mentally mature. A 20-year-old is more likely to fill out than a 24 year old. A 20-year-old is also, biologically speaking, more likely to have an immature brain; a 24-year-old's brain is probably closer to finished. So you'd expect to see more overall improvement and maturation from a 20-year-old.

Also, would you rather have a 24-year-old rookie sit for a while or a 20 or 21-year-old?

In comment 16454050 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

experience matters, but less so, age. You do want to do your research and confirm a couple things: you don't want the 20/21 year old to have just one season of competitive football to make your franchise QB decision around. you also don't want to the 23/24 year old to be successful simply due to being physically more mature than the competition. There is a significant difference between 23/24 and 18/19. once you satisfy those two things I don't care about the age. it's a 4 year deal rookie, best case 5th year option and then what? a 5-8 year 2nd contract? the 21 year old is 36/37 at the end of that, the 23 year old is 38/39. who the F cares?

This is well said.

To me, the age question should be - as you note - more about ensuring that the QB's college tape/stats aren't misleadingly inflated simply as a result of being more physically mature and experienced than his opponents. Beyond that, I don't think it's a huge issue, although if there are two identical prospects with identical levels of experience and one is 21 while the other is 23, I'd probably favor the 21-year-old simply because I think the younger age does allow for a little extra upside.

In comment 16454073 Gatorade Dunk said:

Quote:

In comment 16454050 pjcas18 said: Quote: experience matters, but less so, age. You do want to do your research and confirm a couple things: you don't want the 20/21 year old to have just one season of competitive football to make your franchise QB decision around. you also don't want to the 23/24 year old to be successful simply due to being physically more mature than the competition. There is a significant difference between 23/24 and 18/19. once you satisfy those two things I don't care about the age. it's a 4 year deal rookie, best case 5th year option and then what? a 5-8 year 2nd contract? the 21 year old is 36/37 at the end of that, the 23 year old is 38/39. who the F cares? This is well said. To me, the age question should be - as you note - more about ensuring that the QB's college tape/stats aren't misleadingly inflated simply as a result of being more physically mature and experienced than his opponents. Beyond that, I don't think it's a huge issue, although if there are two identical prospects with identical levels of experience and one is 21 while the other is 23, I'd probably favor the 21-year-old simply because I think the younger age does allow for a little extra upside.

Same. the 21 year old probably has more room for growth if they grade the same as the 23 year old.

Except all else is never equal. There are always some differentiators which trump age.

But you do not draft a player with a high priority being his age. His maturity and experience also matters. So, to me, guys like Maye and McCarthy being as young as they are with at least two seasons of experience is a major plus to me.

it can be a very big deal but it is a case by case basis.

It is a lot more than just the physical maturation imv. College QB's playing 4/5 years or more have a big advantage from a mental standpoint. Familiarity with most defenses they face and things slow down for them in the processing part imv. More time with at least some of the players around them. Prior mistakes can be corrected and you are prepared for more situations.

Younger QB's are leaving a lot of potential production if they come out early. Older QB's who were didn't stand out in earlier years should be looked at very closely to understand the reasons why.

But it is not a deterring factor. However, all things being equal, I prefer a younger prospect. The difference between 21 and 23 is negligible for a QB.

IMO, is when you’re drafting a developmental guy. If you know it’s going to take a couple of years, you probably don’t want to take the 24 year old.

Certainly part of the evaluation process. I imagine if you have to prospects rated about the same than age could be a deciding factor. I think age can play a factor this year when you look at someone like JJ who is much younger than the other QB prospects. He has more room to grow

Age is a factor, but not a priority factor.

And I don't know why we assume because someone is younger, they will likely get better and, therefore, are a better risk.

I remember seeing a stat comparing college QBs entering the draft. The most successful ones were always the QB’s that finished their senior year. Underclassmen had a greater bust rate. Now this was back in the nineties and I can’t recall the exact stat but it always stuck with me. The way the NFL is now with it being a passing league it’s much more common to see younger players be successful.

The more reps a player has, the better he will be. Age isn't a total non factor, but a lesser talented player can end up the better player because he practices longer and harder than the more naturally gifted player. Those are the intangibles that are harder to gauge. Arm strength, accuracy, speed, and all the other physical traits are easier to evaluate.

The concern with JJ is he didn't have as many throws or yards per game as the other QBs. Therefore, he was much harder to evaluate as a prospect, as it required watching many more games to get a better overall picture. He might be fine, but he is less of a sure thing, due less to his age than to his lack of experience. Scouts simply don't have as much tape on him compared to others. That is why McCarthy is considered developmental and will likely need to sit a year.

I want the best player, not the youngest player.

Someone like Nix is already married and has a child. He may be less interested in the nightlife and capitalizing on his newfound wealth and it may help him focus on becoming the best player he can be.

I’m not suggesting I want Nix to be the pick, but there is something to getting a prospect who is a little mature already.

too young to drink or buy a gun