I see a lot of arguments to take the BPA (WR) and then punt QB until 2025. What does that look like though? Let's say the Giants are picking anywhere from 6th and 12th next April. What if a QB doesn't meet the value then either, aren't they just in the same predicament?
From all accounts, this is a strong QB draft. I see no reason why QB shouldn't be the pick this year, but let's play it out if it isn't the pick:
1. Is Daniel Jones on the roster in 2025?
I think a lot of us assume Schoen will cut Jones after 2024 and save roughly $19M in cap space. Is that a safe assumption? If Jones does play in 2024, what does he need to do to earn a roster spot in 2025 and justify that salary?
2. What if the 2025 QB class is weaker than 2024?
It's way too soon to project a QB class, but what if it turns out to be weak? 2019 was a weak class. 2022 was such a weak class that NYG had two top 10 picks and couldn't draft a QB.
3. What if Jones & Lock both play poor in 2024?
If this is the case, Jones will very likely be cut and Lock would be a UFA. The QB room would be non existent and NYG will be forced to do something. This is a scary proposition which I think is very realistic to happening.
4. Do the Giants enter the veteran QB market?
You never know who could become available. This route is the most expensive. Dak Prescott may be a free agent. Could a current high end QB become available via trade? Deshaun Watson & Russell Wilson both were traded but the cost is enormous via trade plus salary. Could Josh Allen or Justin Herbert become available via trade if their teams struggle? I doubt it, but you never know.
The issue is there is no QB pipeline on the team. That's the issue when you choose not to draft a QB since 2019.
It's hard for me to be convinced that not taking any of Maye, McCarthy, Penix or Nix in the first round is the answer. This team desperately needs a QB and the value is there. But, if they don't - how would you handle the position?
I believe we have to get that stud WR in the 1st round and then it depends on who’s available … either take a developmental guy or and I’ve said this before … Get Browning from the Bengals. I like what he showed when given a chance last year.
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is another option here...
Stick with Daniel Jones.
But even if they stick with him for 2024, there is no realistic scenario they don't get out of that contract after the season.
He would have to elevate his game so dramatically to a level he's never come anywhere close to in 5 seasons ( or college for that matter).
Even if he had a good season ( and excellent season for his standards) -25-30 tds/ 3500 yards, are you still committing to him with that contract easy out?
I really don't see any way he's the Giants QB in 2025 which is why they should just rip the band aid off now.
Actually, 2025 is the bargain year of the contract: DJ's salary goes down to $30M before ballooning in 2026.
He would only count $8M more than his current scheduled dead cap to play in 2025.
And that's assuming his 2025 dead cap doesn't go up because of a restructure. In the scenario in which Giants don't draft a QB, a restructure is a real possibility.
Because of Jones' poor play and 2023 injuries, it is very possible Giants will get out of his contract before Year 3.
But that was not the design. This was supposed to be a three year deal, not two. The bargain salary in Year 3 says that.
They either:
1) End up with QB3 or QB4 drafted (might be their QB2 or QB3) at 6th overall or sooner
2) Trade back from #6 or up from #47 and end up with QB5 or QB6
3) Take a 3rd round or later flyer on a developmental QB
One of 1) through 3) will happen.
4. What if DJ actually plays well. Then what do we do in 2025
There is the possibility that Daniel plays well in 2024. I would think he would need to repeat his 2022 success with a better touchdown percentage. To help in that regard drafting Marvin Harrison or Brian Thomas would be a great support and would benefit the team even if they move on from Jones. Also TE Jared Wiley, RB Bucky Irving and RB Tyrone Tracy have good receiving touchdown numbers.
2. What if the 2025 QB class is weaker than 2024?
Even in a weak class there are good quarterbacks to be had. In
2023 1 2 HOU C.J. Stroud
2022 7 262 SFO Brock Purdy
2021 1 1 JAX Trevor Lawrence
2019 1 1 ARI Kyler Murray
3. What if Jones & Lock both play poor in 2024?
Then you have hopefully added talent in support positions of WR, OL, TE and RB in the 2024 draft and free agency. Now you move on for the quarterback (see question2).
4. Do the Giants enter the veteran QB market?
Personally I would not go that route. The team is in need of additional talent across the board. This seems to be more apt for a team that is lacking mainly in the quarterback position and has no good draft options.
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QB than Tyrod Taylor. I know that isn't saying much, but if they can win 6 with TT and DeVito, they can win 7 with Lock!
There is no evidence Lock is better than TT, and ample evidence that TT is better. It’s fine to believe that Lock has untapped potential, I happen to agree with that, but the fact is that TT has had a far better career. I don’t know why so many Giants fans love to shit on the guy. He has his wart, but he was easily the best QB this year, even if that means being the tallest midget…er…little person.
The main reason for dislike of TT is his penchant for injury. Definately the wrong backup for DJ who is also injury prone. Thats why the Giants had to play Devito who despite winning a couple of games looked lousy and won by default
There are currently 3 QBs projected to go top 3 and 1 QB to go top 10 and 2 QBs to go maybe in first and as high as the teens.
If they cannot trade up to top 3 which I accept as reality then
#1- Giants are currently in position to draft the 4th QB (presumably McCarthy) right now and they would need to be jumped by a team (Vikings, Broncos, Raiders ) to not be in position
#2- To get jumped that would mean the Cardinals or Chargers would need to be willing to drop down to the teens (at minimum 11) . I think this unlikely because both the Cards and Chargers need the positions on the board WR & OL and those positions have elite graded prospects (Harrison, Nabers. Odunze and Alt) that will not be available at 11 or later. Both of these teams have “franchise QBs” with huge levels of financial commitment to and are in need of the #1 WR that these guys usually need or the franchise LT.
What’s interesting is that the Giants also need WR/OL and you see very little advocating to drop down to 11 and 23 and take the lesser talents at these spots. Most people seem to be very intrigued at adding a WR here for Jones but for some reason don’t think the Cards/Chargers want same for Herbert/Murray. What exactly is the real reason from a Cards/Chargers POV for trading down?
The Cards actually own 11 draft picks already including 2 firsts already. The Chargers have 9 picks in this draft. Neither are hurting for more draft picks.
#3- the Vikings do have an extra first round draft choice this year at 23 but it comes at the cost of dropping out of the elite talent tier at a position of need. They would have to drop tiers in prospect quality and these are the type of players teams don’t want to lose especially when grade meets need. They also would need to drop behind the Jets, a team who will be looking WR/OL .
#4- the Giants can offer the 47 pick to jump up to 4 or 5 and that with the 6 pick is a better offer considering the talent drop off to 11. Both the Cards or Chargers can get a similar if not the exact same player at 6 then they would have drafted and pick up the 47 pick overall (in a deep draft that has as many as 38 first round grades) . This is a better offer than dropping down to a different talent tier at 11 for the price of the 23 pick.
#5- if all else fails, the Giants do have next years #1 which is likely to be better than the Vikings next years 1 as the team has been drafting 2, 6, 4, 5 and 6 in 5 of last 6 seasons. Nor do the Vikings own a 2nd rounder next year while the Giants do
#6- if the Giants feel like they are going to get jumped and absolutely cannot land one of the top 4, then take the escape hatch and deal with the Vikings for 11 and 23 and chose between Penix and Nix at 11 and pick up the 23 while keeping the 47.
What the Giants need is the will to draft QB
Yes maybe they get another Daniel Jones. But maybe they don’t . And there are worse fates
In 2018 the Giants had the 2 pick and investigated the QBs. They decided against a draft that had 5 first round QBs. Yes they avoided Rosen and Darnold. But one, both franchises moved on at least once and now sit with Murray and Rodgers.
But two, they could have landed Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. 2 players on track for Hall of Fame careers. (No I’m not suggesting they should have drafted Lamar at 2 but how about a trade up from round 2 into round 1 to draft Lamar? I suggest a similar move down here for Penix/Nix)
Instead we missed a 40% shot at a future HoFer and we then desperately overdraft Daniel Jones at 6 the following year. Jones, was given an 80 grade by Sy which just lands as a first round talent and was owner of 17-19 record and just 52 TDs in 36 college starts in 3 years.
And that’s what Jones was; a desperate pick by a desperate team because they needed to draft a QB in a draft that only had 1 QB worthy of pick that high. Jones was at best a late first round guy. He was in range of Haskins on Sy grades and not substantially higher than Lock .
This is not that level of draft at QB.
You want the road to another Daniel Jones draft pick? Pass on Qb this year and go with Jones/Lock/mid-round rookie. jones has a typical season with 1-5 start and 2-4 TD passes and the season over by end of October. The Giants finish with 5-6 wins and wind up with the 4-6 pick. Daboll gets fired and maybe Schoen too. The Giants mercifully cut Jones and eat a massive 23 mil dead cap hit (if there is no injury hit on top) and they realize that they need a QB. But unfortunately they have 4-6 pick and it’s not a QB draft! So, maybe there is no one to take so they desperately move on to a vet QB in FA or trade. Like Denver did.
Or if someone does emerge, they are long gone at 1-2.
Or they massively overpay in a deal to move up for one of them.
Or they overdraft someone with an 8pm or so grade like Jones.
Another worse fate is the Broncos. Who fail to draft QB in 2017nbefause they hWho failed to draft QB in 2018 at the 5 pick and passed on Josh Allen. ( or Lamar later) because they didn’t find anyone they liked and were afraid of another Paxton Lynch. So they take Chubb at 5.
In 2019, they couldn’t do anything at top of draft and trade down and so they take a falling second rounder in Lock who fails. They took Noah Fant at 20
In 2020, Denver sits at 15 and doesn’t make a move up for either Tua or Herbert. So once again no QB. They take Jeudy
In 2021, they pass on Fields and Mac Jones (perhaps wisely) and still have no QB. They take Surtain
In 2022, sick and tired of having no QB they pull off perhaps one of worst trades in NFL a history and go big for Russell Wilson.
In 2024, t hey cut Wilson and take the biggest cap hit in NFL history and once again have no QB and little draft capital to move up for one now.
You will note that all the guys that Denver took were not really bad players and all still are either pretty good, still in league and/or hold some value. Most are not even in Denver now. These were all good value picks at the time. Mostly praised. Yet Denver has had a losing record every year, they have had multiple GMs, HCs and QBs and most of these guys are not even on the team. They haven’t had a QB.
There story is taking no shots and getting desperate and they have paid with losing, loss of picks and a bill still due.
Outstanding post brother. I think you nailed the problem but I would be curious to see a chart of all the teams and their starting QBs plus their QB room. How many other teams have "invested" in their QB situation.
4. What if DJ actually plays well. Then what do we do in 2025
And what if I win the Powerball?
Next year see who's in the draft for QB, if they dont like it go all in on a trade for a current QB, maybe Allen from the Bills. If that team takes a big step backwards in 2024, who knows maybe he's available in 2025.
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Because of the injury risk and injury clause, I wouldn’t even let Jones see the field. Let the NFLPA fight it if they do choose.
+1
It would be irresponsible and leveling up an already colossal mistake.
Not sure John will go for this, not fair to DJ.
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the OL improves big-time and the stud WR we pick and the TEs we acquired from FA can actually block...so #4 should be.
4. What if DJ actually plays well. Then what do we do in 2025
And what if I win the Powerball?
Did you buy a ticket?
+1 though I would like a QB earlier in the draft.
At this point, you have to assume Lock will be the starter in Week 1.
If they don't get the QB they want, I'm hoping they can grab a good RB in R3 or R4.
I'm also thinking if QB is gone, they take a WR at 6.
3 massive QB failures so far
Jets 31-68 since drafting Darnold
Giants 34-64-1 since not drafting QB in 2018
And drum roll please… have fared no worse than Giants over this time?
What do we have to fear by drafting a QB at 6???
Of the 14 playoff teams last year, only 3 started a QB that they drafted with a top 10 pick. The prior year, 6/14 teams and one of them was the Giants.
The 4 NFC Division winners last year
TB - acquired Mayfield via FA
DET - acquired Goff via trade
DAL - acquired Dak via day 3 pick
SF - acquired Purdy via day 3 pick
Point is, the blueprint for building a winning NFL team does not require spending a top 10 pick on a QB. All of those teams have assembled top tier talent at premium positions - something I believe the Giants are in the process of doing (Thomas, Dex, Burns, Banks, Thibs, the WR they draft at #6)
Given our history of drafting QBs since 2004, I wouldn't trust a later pick. Maybe JS can do it better than our previous "braintrust".
I also think that IF ( a big if) AZ really wants a top WR and they’re just not willing to trade down to the teens (where the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders select) AND Arizona has the top 2 WRs (probably MHJ and Nabers) rated even or close… then they would be foolish to pass up the Giants trade offer.
I’ve seen other posts suggesting that the Giants trading up to 4 would take picks 6 and 47 this year, plus a 1st and a 3rd next year, and I’m just not seeing it. I think AZ with 11 picks this year (including 2 ones, a 2nd and 3 threes) might settle for swapping 4 for 6 this year, plus the Giants’ #1 next year.
3 massive QB failures so far
Jets 31-68 since drafting Darnold
Giants 34-64-1 since not drafting QB in 2018
And drum roll please… have fared no worse than Giants over this time?
What do we have to fear by drafting a QB at 6???
Yup, I've made this point before: basically every team that busted on QBs from the 2018 and 2021 classes that people bring up here as 'cautionary tales' still have records comparable to the Giants! Only the Bears have been noticaebly worse from 2021 on, and even they parlayed that into an awesome position for Caleb Williams + a bevy of skill guys.
I also think that IF ( a big if) AZ really wants a top WR and they’re just not willing to trade down to the teens (where the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders select) AND Arizona has the top 2 WRs (probably MHJ and Nabers) rated even or close… then they would be foolish to pass up the Giants trade offer.
I’ve seen other posts suggesting that the Giants trading up to 4 would take picks 6 and 47 this year, plus a 1st and a 3rd next year, and I’m just not seeing it. I think AZ with 11 picks this year (including 2 ones, a 2nd and 3 threes) might settle for swapping 4 for 6 this year, plus the Giants’ #1 next year.
Yeah, that's nonsense. Modern trade valuation based on top 6 picks and qbs say we could get pick 4 for pick 6 a 2025 2nd and 3rd or pick 6, 107 and a 2025 2nd.
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In comment 16457203 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Because of the injury risk and injury clause, I wouldn’t even let Jones see the field. Let the NFLPA fight it if they do choose.
+1
It would be irresponsible and leveling up an already colossal mistake.
Not sure John will go for this, not fair to DJ.
We would more likely release him.
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In comment 16457242 Eric from BBI said:
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is another option here...
Stick with Daniel Jones.
But even if they stick with him for 2024, there is no realistic scenario they don't get out of that contract after the season.
He would have to elevate his game so dramatically to a level he's never come anywhere close to in 5 seasons ( or college for that matter).
Even if he had a good season ( and excellent season for his standards) -25-30 tds/ 3500 yards, are you still committing to him with that contract easy out?
I really don't see any way he's the Giants QB in 2025 which is why they should just rip the band aid off now.
Actually, 2025 is the bargain year of the contract: DJ's salary goes down to $30M before ballooning in 2026.
He would only count $8M more than his current scheduled dead cap to play in 2025.
And that's assuming his 2025 dead cap doesn't go up because of a restructure. In the scenario in which Giants don't draft a QB, a restructure is a real possibility.
Because of Jones' poor play and 2023 injuries, it is very possible Giants will get out of his contract before Year 3.
But that was not the design. This was supposed to be a three year deal, not two. The bargain salary in Year 3 says that.
Spotrac has his 2025 cap hit listed as 41 million. With the 2026 hit being a ridiculous 58 million, they would really want to restructure him after the 2024 season. That's why his combo of a bad performance + injury in 2023 put him way in the hole despite it being only one year. His odds of playing his way into a restructure in the 2025 offseason sareo long that the Giants are rightfully looking to move on.
Again means nothing.. Revisionist history.. Every win us bad and every loss is good in this scenario and that is loser mentality at its worst...
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are foolish enough to choose McCarthy over Maye. That would give the Giants a path to trade up to 4 or 5 to land Maye, the QB my gut tells me would be the Giants top QB choice (after Caleb).
I also think that IF ( a big if) AZ really wants a top WR and they’re just not willing to trade down to the teens (where the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders select) AND Arizona has the top 2 WRs (probably MHJ and Nabers) rated even or close… then they would be foolish to pass up the Giants trade offer.
I’ve seen other posts suggesting that the Giants trading up to 4 would take picks 6 and 47 this year, plus a 1st and a 3rd next year, and I’m just not seeing it. I think AZ with 11 picks this year (including 2 ones, a 2nd and 3 threes) might settle for swapping 4 for 6 this year, plus the Giants’ #1 next year.
Yeah, that's nonsense. Modern trade valuation based on top 6 picks and qbs say we could get pick 4 for pick 6 a 2025 2nd and 3rd or pick 6, 107 and a 2025 2nd.
The problem is, the Giants won't know if AZ values being able to choose the 2nd best WR plus whatever the Giants add over Minny's offer (11 and 23 +++?).
The Giants also won't know if the Vikes would be willing to pay almost any price to land (Maye/McCarthy).
I think situation 3 fits that if we let it play out.
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yes, sweeping the Commanders bit us in the butt.
Again means nothing.. Revisionist history.. Every win us bad and every loss is good in this scenario and that is loser mentality at its worst...
Yeah, I'm so sick of people talking about this. I was rooting for losses and if it weren't for near wins against Buf, Nyj, and LAR then this would hurt more. Our near losses canceled out with our near wins. It is what it is, Mara and Co aren't the tanking type. If we were we surely would have traded Barkley for whatever we could get. The Commies totally tanked and we will see if it pays off for them. I like how we destroyed the Eagles to close the season and I like how Daboll was able to get the very most out of a doomed season that he possibly could. I really don't see us having a pick this high again for a while and I think we need to capitalize. I believe they like JJM and Maye a lot, so there's really no reason to not get one of them.
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In comment 16457458 Jim in Tampa said:
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are foolish enough to choose McCarthy over Maye. That would give the Giants a path to trade up to 4 or 5 to land Maye, the QB my gut tells me would be the Giants top QB choice (after Caleb).
I also think that IF ( a big if) AZ really wants a top WR and they’re just not willing to trade down to the teens (where the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders select) AND Arizona has the top 2 WRs (probably MHJ and Nabers) rated even or close… then they would be foolish to pass up the Giants trade offer.
I’ve seen other posts suggesting that the Giants trading up to 4 would take picks 6 and 47 this year, plus a 1st and a 3rd next year, and I’m just not seeing it. I think AZ with 11 picks this year (including 2 ones, a 2nd and 3 threes) might settle for swapping 4 for 6 this year, plus the Giants’ #1 next year.
Yeah, that's nonsense. Modern trade valuation based on top 6 picks and qbs say we could get pick 4 for pick 6 a 2025 2nd and 3rd or pick 6, 107 and a 2025 2nd.
The problem is, the Giants won't know if AZ values being able to choose the 2nd best WR plus whatever the Giants add over Minny's offer (11 and 23 +++?).
The Giants also won't know if the Vikes would be willing to pay almost any price to land (Maye/McCarthy).
Schoen will know that, we won't. This isn't cold war games. Schoen likely already has an understanding of both NE's and AZ's scenarios. In other words, Schoen knows if NE will trade if Maye isn't there and won't trade if Daniels is there or if they are not likely to budge no matter the circumstances; he knows AZ wants one of the top 2 receivers and had them graded closely or if they're dead set on MHJ or if they're open to moving down and not getting one of the blue chip WRs.
I think AZ will either be dead set on MHJ or like MHJ and Nabers close enough to take the extra picks from us and get one of the two. Kyler Murray is being paid top $ and they absolutely need to get him a top WR; they also have 7 picks in the top 104, I really don't see any way they trade down to 11 as they could even miss out on Brian Thomas Jr there if MHJ goes 5, Nabers/Odunze 6, then you have the Falcons, Bears and possibility of a team trading up.
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yes, sweeping the Commanders bit us in the butt.
Again means nothing.. Revisionist history.. Every win us bad and every loss is good in this scenario and that is loser mentality at its worst...
That's a rather simplistic view, but I guess if it works for you ... it hasn't worked for NYG brass or the fans.
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are foolish enough to choose McCarthy over Maye. That would give the Giants a path to trade up to 4 or 5 to land Maye, the QB my gut tells me would be the Giants top QB choice (after Caleb).
I also think that IF ( a big if) AZ really wants a top WR and they’re just not willing to trade down to the teens (where the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders select) AND Arizona has the top 2 WRs (probably MHJ and Nabers) rated even or close… then they would be foolish to pass up the Giants trade offer.
I’ve seen other posts suggesting that the Giants trading up to 4 would take picks 6 and 47 this year, plus a 1st and a 3rd next year, and I’m just not seeing it. I think AZ with 11 picks this year (including 2 ones, a 2nd and 3 threes) might settle for swapping 4 for 6 this year, plus the Giants’ #1 next year.
Yeah, that's nonsense. Modern trade valuation based on top 6 picks and qbs say we could get pick 4 for pick 6 a 2025 2nd and 3rd or pick 6, 107 and a 2025 2nd.
That's not how trades at the top of the draft for QBs work. Throw the trade chart out. Supply and demand governs deals. Not your chart. If the Vikings jump the Giants and the Giants fail to get one of the top 4 QBs when they have pick 6, it will be a disgrace.
Spotrac has his 2025 cap hit listed as 41 million. With the 2026 hit being a ridiculous 58 million, they would really want to restructure him after the 2024 season. That's why his combo of a bad performance + injury in 2023 put him way in the hole despite it being only one year. His odds of playing his way into a restructure in the 2025 offseason sareo long that the Giants are rightfully looking to move on.
Yes, $11M of that $41M has already been paid as bonus. The scheduled $30M salary for 2025 is the lowest of the four years of the deal, thus the bargain characterization.
Jones' contract was already restructured before he played a down on it. There's no doubt that what happened in 2023 reduces the chances of a restructure for 2024 overall, but the hypothetical we're considering in this thread is that no QB is drafted.
And in that scenario, however likely or unlikely, I think the possibility of a restructure for 2024 is real.
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In comment 16457458 Jim in Tampa said:
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are foolish enough to choose McCarthy over Maye. That would give the Giants a path to trade up to 4 or 5 to land Maye, the QB my gut tells me would be the Giants top QB choice (after Caleb).
I also think that IF ( a big if) AZ really wants a top WR and they’re just not willing to trade down to the teens (where the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders select) AND Arizona has the top 2 WRs (probably MHJ and Nabers) rated even or close… then they would be foolish to pass up the Giants trade offer.
I’ve seen other posts suggesting that the Giants trading up to 4 would take picks 6 and 47 this year, plus a 1st and a 3rd next year, and I’m just not seeing it. I think AZ with 11 picks this year (including 2 ones, a 2nd and 3 threes) might settle for swapping 4 for 6 this year, plus the Giants’ #1 next year.
Yeah, that's nonsense. Modern trade valuation based on top 6 picks and qbs say we could get pick 4 for pick 6 a 2025 2nd and 3rd or pick 6, 107 and a 2025 2nd.
That's not how trades at the top of the draft for QBs work. Throw the trade chart out. Supply and demand governs deals. Not your chart. If the Vikings jump the Giants and the Giants fail to get one of the top 4 QBs when they have pick 6, it will be a disgrace.
I'm not using a trade chart. The trade chart would suggest pick 6 and pick 70 for pick 4 and their 5th round pick. These guys have an advanced analytics formula that has been accurate for recent QB trades at the top of drafts. Their formula is proprietary and you can't see any chart of it, I agree those charts are archaic. If AZ have Nabers and MHJ closely rated and they want one of them, then they will trade with us for pick 6, a 2025 2nd and 3rd or something in that ballpark.
Here's a link of you're interested. - ( New Window )
If Jones plays well in 2024, it will be the first time in his career.
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In comment 16457465 BleedBlue46 said:
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In comment 16457458 Jim in Tampa said:
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are foolish enough to choose McCarthy over Maye. That would give the Giants a path to trade up to 4 or 5 to land Maye, the QB my gut tells me would be the Giants top QB choice (after Caleb).
I also think that IF ( a big if) AZ really wants a top WR and they’re just not willing to trade down to the teens (where the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders select) AND Arizona has the top 2 WRs (probably MHJ and Nabers) rated even or close… then they would be foolish to pass up the Giants trade offer.
I’ve seen other posts suggesting that the Giants trading up to 4 would take picks 6 and 47 this year, plus a 1st and a 3rd next year, and I’m just not seeing it. I think AZ with 11 picks this year (including 2 ones, a 2nd and 3 threes) might settle for swapping 4 for 6 this year, plus the Giants’ #1 next year.
Yeah, that's nonsense. Modern trade valuation based on top 6 picks and qbs say we could get pick 4 for pick 6 a 2025 2nd and 3rd or pick 6, 107 and a 2025 2nd.
That's not how trades at the top of the draft for QBs work. Throw the trade chart out. Supply and demand governs deals. Not your chart. If the Vikings jump the Giants and the Giants fail to get one of the top 4 QBs when they have pick 6, it will be a disgrace.
I'm not using a trade chart. The trade chart would suggest pick 6 and pick 70 for pick 4 and their 5th round pick. These guys have an advanced analytics formula that has been accurate for recent QB trades at the top of drafts. Their formula is proprietary and you can't see any chart of it, I agree those charts are archaic. If AZ have Nabers and MHJ closely rated and they want one of them, then they will trade with us for pick 6, a 2025 2nd and 3rd or something in that ballpark. Here's a link of you're interested. - ( New Window )
Fair enough. But charts don't matter. All that matters is what are the Cardinals (@4) or Pats (@3) willing to accept. And what are the Giants willing to pay.
So if they don't get a quarterback at six, than you either move back up into the first round and try to get Penix, get lucky and hope he falls to 47 or select a developmental guy like Milton in a later round. Under any of these circumstances, the quarterback position is handled the same. Go with Drew Lock as your starter, cut DJ as soon as he passes a physical, have Tommy Cutlets as the backup and assign the rookie as the third quarterback in the room until he demonstrates he is ready to start.
What, to make the playoffs? LOL! I kid, I kid!
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In comment 16457569 Darwinian said:
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In comment 16457465 BleedBlue46 said:
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In comment 16457458 Jim in Tampa said:
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are foolish enough to choose McCarthy over Maye. That would give the Giants a path to trade up to 4 or 5 to land Maye, the QB my gut tells me would be the Giants top QB choice (after Caleb).
I also think that IF ( a big if) AZ really wants a top WR and they’re just not willing to trade down to the teens (where the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders select) AND Arizona has the top 2 WRs (probably MHJ and Nabers) rated even or close… then they would be foolish to pass up the Giants trade offer.
I’ve seen other posts suggesting that the Giants trading up to 4 would take picks 6 and 47 this year, plus a 1st and a 3rd next year, and I’m just not seeing it. I think AZ with 11 picks this year (including 2 ones, a 2nd and 3 threes) might settle for swapping 4 for 6 this year, plus the Giants’ #1 next year.
Yeah, that's nonsense. Modern trade valuation based on top 6 picks and qbs say we could get pick 4 for pick 6 a 2025 2nd and 3rd or pick 6, 107 and a 2025 2nd.
That's not how trades at the top of the draft for QBs work. Throw the trade chart out. Supply and demand governs deals. Not your chart. If the Vikings jump the Giants and the Giants fail to get one of the top 4 QBs when they have pick 6, it will be a disgrace.
I'm not using a trade chart. The trade chart would suggest pick 6 and pick 70 for pick 4 and their 5th round pick. These guys have an advanced analytics formula that has been accurate for recent QB trades at the top of drafts. Their formula is proprietary and you can't see any chart of it, I agree those charts are archaic. If AZ have Nabers and MHJ closely rated and they want one of them, then they will trade with us for pick 6, a 2025 2nd and 3rd or something in that ballpark. Here's a link of you're interested. - ( New Window )
Fair enough. But charts don't matter. All that matters is what are the Cardinals (@4) or Pats (@3) willing to accept. And what are the Giants willing to pay.
Agreed it really comes down to A. If NE or AZ is willing to trade down B. If they would much rather be at pick 6 than 11
Otherwise, I agree it could get nasty in a bidding war if they don't really prefer to be at pick 6 vs 11. Then if it's a bidding war, it comes down to how much Schoen n Co love the QB available. T-20 days 5 hrs 2 minutes and counting...
Fair enough. But charts don't matter. All that matters is what are the Cardinals (@4) or Pats (@3) willing to accept. And what are the Giants willing to pay.
Agreed it really comes down to A. If NE or AZ is willing to trade down B. If they would much rather be at pick 6 than 11
Otherwise, I agree it could get nasty in a bidding war if they don't really prefer to be at pick 6 vs 11. Then if it's a bidding war, it comes down to how much Schoen n Co love the QB available. T-20 days 5 hrs 2 minutes and counting...
Yes! I'm not going to lie I find this very exciting. And it's not just pressure on the Giants. At some point, when there are three #1s on the table, the Pats for example, if they aren't in LOVE with the QB have a lot to think about. three firsts incl a #6 pick which can land them a franchise LT or WR is a great inducement to deal.
So if they don't get a quarterback at six, than you either move back up into the first round and try to get Penix, get lucky and hope he falls to 47 or select a developmental guy like Milton in a later round. Under any of these circumstances, the quarterback position is handled the same. Go with Drew Lock as your starter, cut DJ as soon as he passes a physical, have Tommy Cutlets as the backup and assign the rookie as the third quarterback in the room until he demonstrates he is ready to start.
The mistake was not going QB in 2018 when we had 5 first round QBs and 2 of them are already future HOFers and them desperately reaching for Jones the following year
But the real mistake is sitting with Jones year after year despite being a bottom 3 team during his time.
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Nobody on this site is more anti-DJ than me. But making the exact same mistake in reaching for a second tier quarterback at six is asinine. Trading back also makes no sense since you would be foregoing an elite talent at WR if none of the top three quarterbacks fall. If this team hasn't learned the lesson of Micah Parsons for Kadarius Toney and Evan Neal than the quarterback situation is the least of our problems.
So if they don't get a quarterback at six, than you either move back up into the first round and try to get Penix, get lucky and hope he falls to 47 or select a developmental guy like Milton in a later round. Under any of these circumstances, the quarterback position is handled the same. Go with Drew Lock as your starter, cut DJ as soon as he passes a physical, have Tommy Cutlets as the backup and assign the rookie as the third quarterback in the room until he demonstrates he is ready to start.
The mistake was not going QB in 2018 when we had 5 first round QBs and 2 of them are already future HOFers and them desperately reaching for Jones the following year
But the real mistake is sitting with Jones year after year despite being a bottom 3 team during his time.
No doubt. But perhaps the biggest mistake of all was not drafting Justin Herbert in 2020 when he fell right to us at four. Believing that DJ has been anything but a backup level talent because he has had good games against terrible football teams has been the fundamental reason that two coaches and a GM were fired and the worst contract in Giants history was awarded by the current regime.
I’m hoping this scenario becomes reality and I’m not saying it can’t. I saw what we did in 2022, so why can’t we do it in 2024 as well?
I’m willing to cut Jones some slack for the 5 games he did not look good in 2023. We did play two great defenses in Dallas and SF….plus he didn’t have Andrew Thomas for all but one of those games. I believe he also didnt have Waller and WnDale for those 5 games….not to mention he still had a crappy OL especially without Thomas and a crappy Neal.
I much rather see Jones or Lock if he impresses over Pennix, Nix, or McCarthy.
To keep DJ for 2025 costs $30MM (the additional comp he makes in 2025; doesn't much matter when you pay it to him.) Can't imagine we want to pay him that, but maybe he has a great year.
To me don't reach or overpay. If you don't get your QB then play the hand you have and try again next year. The landscape next year is way too uncertain to let it control this year.
To keep DJ for 2025 costs $30MM (the additional comp he makes in 2025; doesn't much matter when you pay it to him.) Can't imagine we want to pay him that, but maybe he has a great year.
To me don't reach or overpay. If you don't get your QB then play the hand you have and try again next year. The landscape next year is way too uncertain to let it control this year.
Cap hit in 2025 is 41.6 million for DJ, base salary is 30 but that doesn't mean anything.
We save nearly 20 million if he isn't on the team for 2025 and he doesn't trigger his injury clause. Best business practice would be to just cut him sometime after june 1st when he can pass a physical.
To keep DJ for 2025 costs $30MM (the additional comp he makes in 2025; doesn't much matter when you pay it to him.) Can't imagine we want to pay him that, but maybe he has a great year.
To me don't reach or overpay. If you don't get your QB then play the hand you have and try again next year. The landscape next year is way too uncertain to let it control this year.
That 20 million could go a long ways toward building the team.
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yes, sweeping the Commanders bit us in the butt.
Again means nothing.. Revisionist history.. Every win us bad and every loss is good in this scenario and that is loser mentality at its worst...
What exactly is being revised here?
Seems more like an observation to me.