I see a lot of arguments to take the BPA (WR) and then punt QB until 2025. What does that look like though? Let's say the Giants are picking anywhere from 6th and 12th next April. What if a QB doesn't meet the value then either, aren't they just in the same predicament?
From all accounts, this is a strong QB draft. I see no reason why QB shouldn't be the pick this year, but let's play it out if it isn't the pick:
1. Is Daniel Jones on the roster in 2025?
I think a lot of us assume Schoen will cut Jones after 2024 and save roughly $19M in cap space. Is that a safe assumption? If Jones does play in 2024, what does he need to do to earn a roster spot in 2025 and justify that salary?
2. What if the 2025 QB class is weaker than 2024?
It's way too soon to project a QB class, but what if it turns out to be weak? 2019 was a weak class. 2022 was such a weak class that NYG had two top 10 picks and couldn't draft a QB.
3. What if Jones & Lock both play poor in 2024?
If this is the case, Jones will very likely be cut and Lock would be a UFA. The QB room would be non existent and NYG will be forced to do something. This is a scary proposition which I think is very realistic to happening.
4. Do the Giants enter the veteran QB market?
You never know who could become available. This route is the most expensive. Dak Prescott may be a free agent. Could a current high end QB become available via trade? Deshaun Watson & Russell Wilson both were traded but the cost is enormous via trade plus salary. Could Josh Allen or Justin Herbert become available via trade if their teams struggle? I doubt it, but you never know.
The issue is there is no QB pipeline on the team. That's the issue when you choose not to draft a QB since 2019.
It's hard for me to be convinced that not taking any of Maye, McCarthy, Penix or Nix in the first round is the answer. This team desperately needs a QB and the value is there. But, if they don't - how would you handle the position?
Current "worst case" scenario is fate has conspired against the Giants in their obvious attempts to land a QB in this draft (can't compete with Vikings offer and/or teams unwilling to trade down).
In this case, the Giants would still have their 2025 #1 pick, which will likely range from mid-round (if team overachieves and hovers around .500) to top 10 (terrible season).
There will likely be 1-3 first round QBs in 2025. Giants will have to try again.
One of the odd dichotomies I've seen this year is that fans are worried about a rookie QB needing (or wanting them) to sit for parts pf this season and want to punt, but drafting a rookie QB in 2025 necessitates they throw him in game 1 of that season.
IMO, we need a guy who can compete with the likes of the Allens/Herberts/Lamars/ etc. Maybe not exacatly at that level, but in range to compete (and no I don't care that they are in the AFC). If we can get a guy like that, we go get him. If not, we settle for a guy we can win with though perhaps not because of, and keep searching until we get that guy. Don't settle for mediocrity at QB. The Cousins type of QBs who can win games for you but don't move the needle are easier to get than people make out if you are willing to dive in the FA market.
We may have to figure ways to accumulate some extra picks if we don't get our guy.
I don't want a great WR to be stuck on a team that is never able to find a QB for years. Imagine drafting Odunze and 5 years later we have only had journeymen and washed up vets? That would suck and are still stuck in QB hell. What a waste of the WR and his talent and rookie deal.
I would rather take the QB, the most important position, restore hope, leverage QB pay scale, and for the next several years take all the WR's you want with whatever picks we have. I have confidence Daboll can make that work.
+1
It would be irresponsible and leveling up an already colossal mistake.
So, here are the only two scenarios where I see that passing on a QB works:
1. Lock, DeVito, or scrap heap guy (training camp veteran or rookie FA) start and play well. If Lock plays well, we could probably bring him back at a modest amount. Any one of Lock, DeVito, or rando guy playing well allows the Giants to bring them back next year as starter while drafting the best quarterback available to develop. I have no idea how the 2025 class will hash out, but I love either Cam Ward or Quinn Ewers as tools-heavy guys to bring along.
2. Sign a veteran QB in 2025 - I think this only works if the Giants roster makes real strides this year. The DL dominates as advertised, Okereke and McFadden continue to play well, and the young guys in the secondary and receiver room show promise. Ergo, you have a competitive roster and can bring in Dak or Goff and backload their contracts. Unfortunately, you're probably looking a 2-3 year window before you hit cap hell.
I think either path could be viable, but it's a narrow one, and if the Giants QBs struggle in 2024 while any one of McCarthy, Penix, or Nix look great, than this regime is probably toast.
1) How much conviction do they have on one or more of these QBs?
2) Where Jones is in his knee rehab?
3) How much lingering damage (if any) does he have from his neck injuries?
4) How much do Schoen/Daboll/Kafka/Tierney actually still want to roll with a recovered version of Jones?
5) What can Schoen/Daboll/Kafka/Tierney coax out of Drew Lock?
This is such an interesting year. I won't be sad if they end up with a QB or one of the top QBs in round 1. I also wouldn't be sad to get Dallas Turner or even another OT (although I'd be more shocked with an OT) in Rnd 1.
It's really such an interesting draft. Way moreso than any I can remember. I feel like a little kid waiting for Xmas.... lol
Stick with Daniel Jones.
Draft, draft, draft. Hopefully Schoen and Daboll use the WR smoke as backup but use every resource within reason to get your guy.
devito is turning 26 in august.
i would think those 2 will be in a competition for reps no matter who is brought in/healthy. they are going to get a lot of reps in the spring along with any rookies that come in with jones injured. lock has more experience and talent but devito is a year ahead in this offense.
if they draft nix or penix, they are almost as experienced as devito but adapting from very spread offenses to pro style.
if they draft mccarthy or maye, they are both a lot less experienced but more comfortable in pro concepts, and were likely also higher picks.
jones likely is on some kind of restriction for a time period where any of the above are competing/sharing reps.
just play whoever the best guy is and win as many games as possible. the rest will take care of itself. you may start the year intending the qb to be trey lance with jimmy g backing up and end the year with brock pury. who knows.
there is no reason to commit to anything right now beyond having options.
That said, if they don’t see a high chance of it recurring, and it was just dumb luck that it happened twice, then I could see them rolling with Jones until they can find a suitable replacement. With a better OL and more talent at WR, there’s no reason why Jones can’t be solid, although I think NFL defenses have figured out how to defend him. He’s never going to be a top 15 QB, but if he can make some plays downfield, or with his legs, the Giants could be a WC contender. I just don’t see them being much more than that with Jones’s limitations.
Waiting until next draft is a fool’s errand, I’m afraid. Generally regarded as a weaker QB draft, and there is no guarantee the Giants get the top 5 pick necessary to get one of the top QB’s. I think they need to maximize any opportunity this year to get one.
Teams with outstanding run games especially when it comes primarily from the RB's with a outstanding D can win a lot of games with less than optimal QB play. Strong specials is part of that as well. Outstanding coaching.
I would also look for a opportunity to move a chip or two (draft picks) to the following year that can be used to move up and strike when you see a quality QB within reach.
There is no evidence Lock is better than TT, and ample evidence that TT is better. It’s fine to believe that Lock has untapped potential, I happen to agree with that, but the fact is that TT has had a far better career. I don’t know why so many Giants fans love to shit on the guy. He has his wart, but he was easily the best QB this year, even if that means being the tallest midget…er…little person.
I believe 100% they want to use their first pick in 2024 on a QB. Via a trade up or if one falls to them at 6. I have no idea if the Giants like all 3 QBs (Daniels, Maye, JJM - since Williams will be the #1 pick) as top 6 picks or if it's just 1 or 2 of them they grade high enough to trade for or pick.
I would be very surprised if Schoen isn't prepared to trade back if they can't get their QB this year. Maybe even trade back far enough to get a #1 plus a mid round pick in 2025 (a 3 or a 4). There are so many good WRs and OTs in round 1 the Giants could still have a strong draft and pick a QB in round 2 or 3 and have set themselves up to get a QB next year.
It would be very disappointing to go into 2024 with Jones, Lock and Devito/Developmental draft pick but at #6 they may not have a choice.
The defenses are playing a QB that they don’t need to defend past 10 yards
Stick with Daniel Jones.
If DJ plays this year, i think it’s a near certainty that he triggers his 2025 injury guarantee, which I presume will keep him around for 2025. NYG should follow DEN example and ask DJ to waive the guarantee, but that would not be the NYG way. It will not end well.
Stick with Daniel Jones.
But even if they stick with him for 2024, there is no realistic scenario they don't get out of that contract after the season.
He would have to elevate his game so dramatically to a level he's never come anywhere close to in 5 seasons ( or college for that matter).
Even if he had a good season ( and excellent season for his standards) -25-30 tds/ 3500 yards, are you still committing to him with that contract easy out?
I really don't see any way he's the Giants QB in 2025 which is why they should just rip the band aid off now.
Stick with Daniel Jones.
That would be like comceding New York to the Jets.
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is another option here...
Stick with Daniel Jones.
If DJ plays this year, i think it’s a near certainty that he triggers his 2025 injury guarantee, which I presume will keep him around for 2025. NYG should follow DEN example and ask DJ to waive the guarantee, but that would not be the NYG way. It will not end well.
And some still insist that Jones contract wasn't that bad.
There are currently 3 QBs projected to go top 3 and 1 QB to go top 10 and 2 QBs to go maybe in first and as high as the teens.
If they cannot trade up to top 3 which I accept as reality then
#1- Giants are currently in position to draft the 4th QB (presumably McCarthy) right now and they would need to be jumped by a team (Vikings, Broncos, Raiders ) to not be in position
#2- To get jumped that would mean the Cardinals or Chargers would need to be willing to drop down to the teens (at minimum 11) . I think this unlikely because both the Cards and Chargers need the positions on the board WR & OL and those positions have elite graded prospects (Harrison, Nabers. Odunze and Alt) that will not be available at 11 or later. Both of these teams have “franchise QBs” with huge levels of financial commitment to and are in need of the #1 WR that these guys usually need or the franchise LT.
What’s interesting is that the Giants also need WR/OL and you see very little advocating to drop down to 11 and 23 and take the lesser talents at these spots. Most people seem to be very intrigued at adding a WR here for Jones but for some reason don’t think the Cards/Chargers want same for Herbert/Murray. What exactly is the real reason from a Cards/Chargers POV for trading down?
The Cards actually own 11 draft picks already including 2 firsts already. The Chargers have 9 picks in this draft. Neither are hurting for more draft picks.
#3- the Vikings do have an extra first round draft choice this year at 23 but it comes at the cost of dropping out of the elite talent tier at a position of need. They would have to drop tiers in prospect quality and these are the type of players teams don’t want to lose especially when grade meets need. They also would need to drop behind the Jets, a team who will be looking WR/OL .
#4- the Giants can offer the 47 pick to jump up to 4 or 5 and that with the 6 pick is a better offer considering the talent drop off to 11. Both the Cards or Chargers can get a similar if not the exact same player at 6 then they would have drafted and pick up the 47 pick overall (in a deep draft that has as many as 38 first round grades) . This is a better offer than dropping down to a different talent tier at 11 for the price of the 23 pick.
#5- if all else fails, the Giants do have next years #1 which is likely to be better than the Vikings next years 1 as the team has been drafting 2, 6, 4, 5 and 6 in 5 of last 6 seasons. Nor do the Vikings own a 2nd rounder next year while the Giants do
#6- if the Giants feel like they are going to get jumped and absolutely cannot land one of the top 4, then take the escape hatch and deal with the Vikings for 11 and 23 and chose between Penix and Nix at 11 and pick up the 23 while keeping the 47.
What the Giants need is the will to draft QB
Yes maybe they get another Daniel Jones. But maybe they don’t . And there are worse fates
In 2018 the Giants had the 2 pick and investigated the QBs. They decided against a draft that had 5 first round QBs. Yes they avoided Rosen and Darnold. But one, both franchises moved on at least once and now sit with Murray and Rodgers.
But two, they could have landed Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. 2 players on track for Hall of Fame careers. (No I’m not suggesting they should have drafted Lamar at 2 but how about a trade up from round 2 into round 1 to draft Lamar? I suggest a similar move down here for Penix/Nix)
Instead we missed a 40% shot at a future HoFer and we then desperately overdraft Daniel Jones at 6 the following year. Jones, was given an 80 grade by Sy which just lands as a first round talent and was owner of 17-19 record and just 52 TDs in 36 college starts in 3 years.
And that’s what Jones was; a desperate pick by a desperate team because they needed to draft a QB in a draft that only had 1 QB worthy of pick that high. Jones was at best a late first round guy. He was in range of Haskins on Sy grades and not substantially higher than Lock .
This is not that level of draft at QB.
You want the road to another Daniel Jones draft pick? Pass on Qb this year and go with Jones/Lock/mid-round rookie. jones has a typical season with 1-5 start and 2-4 TD passes and the season over by end of October. The Giants finish with 5-6 wins and wind up with the 4-6 pick. Daboll gets fired and maybe Schoen too. The Giants mercifully cut Jones and eat a massive 23 mil dead cap hit (if there is no injury hit on top) and they realize that they need a QB. But unfortunately they have 4-6 pick and it’s not a QB draft! So, maybe there is no one to take so they desperately move on to a vet QB in FA or trade. Like Denver did.
Or if someone does emerge, they are long gone at 1-2.
Or they massively overpay in a deal to move up for one of them.
Or they overdraft someone with an 8pm or so grade like Jones.
Another worse fate is the Broncos. Who fail to draft QB in 2017nbefause they hWho failed to draft QB in 2018 at the 5 pick and passed on Josh Allen. ( or Lamar later) because they didn’t find anyone they liked and were afraid of another Paxton Lynch. So they take Chubb at 5.
In 2019, they couldn’t do anything at top of draft and trade down and so they take a falling second rounder in Lock who fails. They took Noah Fant at 20
In 2020, Denver sits at 15 and doesn’t make a move up for either Tua or Herbert. So once again no QB. They take Jeudy
In 2021, they pass on Fields and Mac Jones (perhaps wisely) and still have no QB. They take Surtain
In 2022, sick and tired of having no QB they pull off perhaps one of worst trades in NFL a history and go big for Russell Wilson.
In 2024, t hey cut Wilson and take the biggest cap hit in NFL history and once again have no QB and little draft capital to move up for one now.
You will note that all the guys that Denver took were not really bad players and all still are either pretty good, still in league and/or hold some value. Most are not even in Denver now. These were all good value picks at the time. Mostly praised. Yet Denver has had a losing record every year, they have had multiple GMs, HCs and QBs and most of these guys are not even on the team. They haven’t had a QB.
There story is taking no shots and getting desperate and they have paid with losing, loss of picks and a bill still due.
Second would be a trade for a prospect/reclamation project on another team -- someone like Hooker, Trask, Stidham or O'Connell. Hopefully you could get someone like this for a pretty low future pick. Maybe Daboll can coach them up to be a top QB and if not (the likely scenario) you have no ties to them going forward
Third would be just to run it back with Jones, Lock and Devito and give Lock every chance to win. This would be the hardest to stomach as fans and would not have us feeling much excitement going into the season.
Because of the last scenario, I would be very surprised if they do not come away from the draft process with at least one qb, even if it's a late round pick or an undrafted FA.
Of the 14 playoff teams last year, only 3 started a QB that they drafted with a top 10 pick. The prior year, 6/14 teams and one of them was the Giants.
The 4 NFC Division winners last year
TB - acquired Mayfield via FA
DET - acquired Goff via trade
DAL - acquired Dak via day 3 pick
SF - acquired Purdy via day 3 pick
Point is, the blueprint for building a winning NFL team does not require spending a top 10 pick on a QB. All of those teams have assembled top tier talent at premium positions - something I believe the Giants are in the process of doing (Thomas, Dex, Burns, Banks, Thibs, the WR they draft at #6)
While he may have entertained the idea of grabbing one, he was comfortable falling back on Jones. And Lock is insurance until Jones is ready.
The question in the OP is how I would handle this. Well, I would still cut Jones, roll with Lock, keep Cutlets as a back-up, and hope Davoli can develop Lock into a late bloomer.
Simultaneously, I hope the benefits from those six amazing wins in 2023 carry over into 2024 and we get an extra bounce from that.
For what it's worth, I checked out a Vikings message board and few of their fans bitched about beating the Raiders late in the season and beating the 49ers earlier because it screwed them out of being at 6. So, we're not the only ones bitching about meaningless late season wins.
For what it's worth, I checked out a Vikings message board and few of their fans bitched about beating the Raiders late in the season and beating the 49ers earlier because it screwed them out of being at 6. So, we're not the only ones bitching about meaningless late season wins.
That sounds like the best rational plan, even if success is still a long shot. (I like Pratt, but flyers like him rarely pay off.) Winning just enough to prolong being in QB limbo, if not hell, would be the most likely outcome.
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IR Jones or cut him after he passes a physical. Go into the preseason with an open competition between Lock/DeVito/rookie.
That sounds like the best rational plan, even if success is still a long shot. (I like Pratt, but flyers like him rarely pay off.) Winning just enough to prolong being in QB limbo, if not hell, would be the most likely outcome.
I think the only rational plan is to come out of this draft with one of the six top QBs.
There are currently 3 QBs projected to go top 3 and 1 QB to go top 10 and 2 QBs to go maybe in first and as high as the teens.
If they cannot trade up to top 3 which I accept as reality then
#1- Giants are currently in position to draft the 4th QB (presumably McCarthy) right now and they would need to be jumped by a team (Vikings, Broncos, Raiders ) to not be in position
#2- To get jumped that would mean the Cardinals or Chargers would need to be willing to drop down to the teens (at minimum 11) . I think this unlikely because both the Cards and Chargers need the positions on the board WR & OL and those positions have elite graded prospects (Harrison, Nabers. Odunze and Alt) that will not be available at 11 or later. Both of these teams have “franchise QBs” with huge levels of financial commitment to and are in need of the #1 WR that these guys usually need or the franchise LT.
What’s interesting is that the Giants also need WR/OL and you see very little advocating to drop down to 11 and 23 and take the lesser talents at these spots. Most people seem to be very intrigued at adding a WR here for Jones but for some reason don’t think the Cards/Chargers want same for Herbert/Murray. What exactly is the real reason from a Cards/Chargers POV for trading down?
The Cards actually own 11 draft picks already including 2 firsts already. The Chargers have 9 picks in this draft. Neither are hurting for more draft picks.
#3- the Vikings do have an extra first round draft choice this year at 23 but it comes at the cost of dropping out of the elite talent tier at a position of need. They would have to drop tiers in prospect quality and these are the type of players teams don’t want to lose especially when grade meets need. They also would need to drop behind the Jets, a team who will be looking WR/OL .
#4- the Giants can offer the 47 pick to jump up to 4 or 5 and that with the 6 pick is a better offer considering the talent drop off to 11. Both the Cards or Chargers can get a similar if not the exact same player at 6 then they would have drafted and pick up the 47 pick overall (in a deep draft that has as many as 38 first round grades) . This is a better offer than dropping down to a different talent tier at 11 for the price of the 23 pick.
#5- if all else fails, the Giants do have next years #1 which is likely to be better than the Vikings next years 1 as the team has been drafting 2, 6, 4, 5 and 6 in 5 of last 6 seasons. Nor do the Vikings own a 2nd rounder next year while the Giants do
#6- if the Giants feel like they are going to get jumped and absolutely cannot land one of the top 4, then take the escape hatch and deal with the Vikings for 11 and 23 and chose between Penix and Nix at 11 and pick up the 23 while keeping the 47.
What the Giants need is the will to draft QB
Yes maybe they get another Daniel Jones. But maybe they don’t . And there are worse fates
In 2018 the Giants had the 2 pick and investigated the QBs. They decided against a draft that had 5 first round QBs. Yes they avoided Rosen and Darnold. But one, both franchises moved on at least once and now sit with Murray and Rodgers.
But two, they could have landed Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. 2 players on track for Hall of Fame careers. (No I’m not suggesting they should have drafted Lamar at 2 but how about a trade up from round 2 into round 1 to draft Lamar? I suggest a similar move down here for Penix/Nix)
Instead we missed a 40% shot at a future HoFer and we then desperately overdraft Daniel Jones at 6 the following year. Jones, was given an 80 grade by Sy which just lands as a first round talent and was owner of 17-19 record and just 52 TDs in 36 college starts in 3 years.
And that’s what Jones was; a desperate pick by a desperate team because they needed to draft a QB in a draft that only had 1 QB worthy of pick that high. Jones was at best a late first round guy. He was in range of Haskins on Sy grades and not substantially higher than Lock .
This is not that level of draft at QB.
You want the road to another Daniel Jones draft pick? Pass on Qb this year and go with Jones/Lock/mid-round rookie. jones has a typical season with 1-5 start and 2-4 TD passes and the season over by end of October. The Giants finish with 5-6 wins and wind up with the 4-6 pick. Daboll gets fired and maybe Schoen too. The Giants mercifully cut Jones and eat a massive 23 mil dead cap hit (if there is no injury hit on top) and they realize that they need a QB. But unfortunately they have 4-6 pick and it’s not a QB draft! So, maybe there is no one to take so they desperately move on to a vet QB in FA or trade. Like Denver did.
Or if someone does emerge, they are long gone at 1-2.
Or they massively overpay in a deal to move up for one of them.
Or they overdraft someone with an 8pm or so grade like Jones.
Another worse fate is the Broncos. Who fail to draft QB in 2017nbefause they hWho failed to draft QB in 2018 at the 5 pick and passed on Josh Allen. ( or Lamar later) because they didn’t find anyone they liked and were afraid of another Paxton Lynch. So they take Chubb at 5.
In 2019, they couldn’t do anything at top of draft and trade down and so they take a falling second rounder in Lock who fails. They took Noah Fant at 20
In 2020, Denver sits at 15 and doesn’t make a move up for either Tua or Herbert. So once again no QB. They take Jeudy
In 2021, they pass on Fields and Mac Jones (perhaps wisely) and still have no QB. They take Surtain
In 2022, sick and tired of having no QB they pull off perhaps one of worst trades in NFL a history and go big for Russell Wilson.
In 2024, t hey cut Wilson and take the biggest cap hit in NFL history and once again have no QB and little draft capital to move up for one now.
You will note that all the guys that Denver took were not really bad players and all still are either pretty good, still in league and/or hold some value. Most are not even in Denver now. These were all good value picks at the time. Mostly praised. Yet Denver has had a losing record every year, they have had multiple GMs, HCs and QBs and most of these guys are not even on the team. They haven’t had a QB.
There story is taking no shots and getting desperate and they have paid with losing, loss of picks and a bill still due.
Thank you. This was very good and very well thought out.
And the only shot we had at real QB prospect worthy of the pick was in 3 of those 5 years with Darnold/Rosen/Allen, Tua/Herbert and this year.
So not every year has a QB and that should 100% be considered in deciding to pass on QB this year
Otherwise you end up drafting a Jones who had an 80 grade from SY.
He may start, but his leash will be ruthlessly short if he does.
If he is cleared, Jones competes to start or you cut him. I don't see them playing any games with this "shelving concept" I have seen. It is a not a good way to operate imv.
God, a person can go crazy thinking about all this...
Only 2 teams received the following year's 1 in the trade down