Talked again to my Vikings's guy last night and here is the latest.
Vikings are ALL IN on Maye and are willing to give multiple 1's (2 this year and 1 next year) and more if necessary, to move up to 3 to take him if he's there.
If he's not there, or Wash doesn't want to trade the pick, they are still in on Penix as next in line, but have decided not trade up to top 5 to get him as previously thought. Instead, their preference now would be to take a DLine at 11 and Penix at 23.
If they feel Penix will go before 23, they will switch the scenario and take Penix at 11 and DLine at 23.
Bottom line: Penix will not be available after Pick 23.
Also, they are not high on either JJ, Daniels or Nix for various reasons.
That's all for now!
If NE isn’t really in love with moving out of 3, I suspect the NYG won’t want to match the mountain the Vikings are willing to move.
I don't think that's relevant tbh, the Vikings will pay the same exorbant price no matter whether NE prefers to move down or not NE will get as much as they can. The Vikings are much closer to contention than us and they could be willing to trade whatever it takes to get Maye at 3.
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I am confident we can outbid the Vikings.
If NE isn’t really in love with moving out of 3, I suspect the NYG won’t want to match the mountain the Vikings are willing to move.
Confident?
They can offer three #1s. That's tough to top.
You keep saying this, but not all number one picks are created equal. It depends where they are. I'm not saying the Giants will outbid the Vikings, but I don't think it's impossible to do so.
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wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings offered #11, #23, and their #1 and #3 next year to anyone as long as Maye is still available. Schoen could top that, but it would require a ton, and in my view, far too much. As others have said, the best option at that point is not to trade with anyone since JJM will likely be available at #6. I doubt Denver or Las Vegas can get to #4 or #5. The Giants might also be able to trade down and take Nix or Penix.
A trade with NE may not cost as much as you would think. If Minn isn’t targeting JJM, then that is huge in our favor. Kraft wants a QB (JJM or Maye, presumably), but his people are desperate for more picks. Good chance they can deal with us and get both. Any other option and they have to chose one or the other (stay put gets the QB but not picks, and trading beyond 6 will likely cost them their QB).
Yes, that is the only scenario in which we wouldn't have to vastly overpay for Maye which I see as very plausible. I think We would still have to trade pick 6, 47 and 2025 1st or pick 6 2025 1st, 2nd and 3rd though. If NE trades down with us I could see them having a deal in place with AZ to trade right back up for JJM for pick 6 and 2025 2nd and 3rd, they would then basically get JJM plus our 2025 1st for pick 3.
I agree and if we trade up I would sure as hell hope they kept 47 to take a WR or trade up for one of Leggette/Franklin/Coleman/Mitchell. There are legit #1 wr potential guys that will be within reach.
Maye
JJM
MHJ
Nabers
Odunze
Obviously there are others, but you can legitimately make a case for any of these 5 as being the favorite.
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wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings offered #11, #23, and their #1 and #3 next year to anyone as long as Maye is still available. Schoen could top that, but it would require a ton, and in my view, far too much. As others have said, the best option at that point is not to trade with anyone since JJM will likely be available at #6. I doubt Denver or Las Vegas can get to #4 or #5. The Giants might also be able to trade down and take Nix or Penix.
I'm 100% on board with you about letting Minnesota win a bidding war for Maye. They could even offer pick 11, 23, 2025 1st and 2026 1st for all we know. Maye is too boom or bust to pay as much as we would need to pay for him, if he wasn't boom or bust NE wouldn't trade the pick.
Yup.
New York’s 1st and 2nd are actually slightly more valuable than Minnesotas two 1st rounders. If you live by the value chart.
@AlbertBreer
One interesting thing I've picked up on making calls this week: Coaches seem to be higher than scouts on Washington QB Michael Penix, in general. Some have him ahead of the presumed top guys (excluding Caleb Williams).
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I am confident we can outbid the Vikings.
If NE isn’t really in love with moving out of 3, I suspect the NYG won’t want to match the mountain the Vikings are willing to move.
Confident?
They can offer three #1s. That's tough to top.
Eric, I still think the #6 pick is more desirable. When you have the season the Patriots had and you have no top end talent, dropping to #11 and out of the blue chip talents is tough. And picking in the 20s is a huge crapshoot anyway.
At 6, NE can draft Harrison, Nabers or Odunze. McCarthy might be there too.
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In comment 16458749 Jaenyg said:
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I am confident we can outbid the Vikings.
If NE isn’t really in love with moving out of 3, I suspect the NYG won’t want to match the mountain the Vikings are willing to move.
Confident?
They can offer three #1s. That's tough to top.
Eric, I still think the #6 pick is more desirable. When you have the season the Patriots had and you have no top end talent, dropping to #11 and out of the blue chip talents is tough. And picking in the 20s is a huge crapshoot anyway.
At 6, NE can draft Harrison, Nabers or Odunze. McCarthy might be there too.
And at 11 they’re getting Fashanu, Fuaga, Verse, or Latu.
6 isn’t that desirable unless you’re dead set on a WR.
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In comment 16458751 Eric from BBI said:
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In comment 16458749 Jaenyg said:
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I am confident we can outbid the Vikings.
If NE isn’t really in love with moving out of 3, I suspect the NYG won’t want to match the mountain the Vikings are willing to move.
Confident?
They can offer three #1s. That's tough to top.
Eric, I still think the #6 pick is more desirable. When you have the season the Patriots had and you have no top end talent, dropping to #11 and out of the blue chip talents is tough. And picking in the 20s is a huge crapshoot anyway.
At 6, NE can draft Harrison, Nabers or Odunze. McCarthy might be there too.
And at 11 they’re getting Fashanu, Fuaga, Verse, or Latu.
6 isn’t that desirable unless you’re dead set on a WR.
Add Brian Thomas Jr and maybe Turner to that list.
@AlbertBreer
One interesting thing I've picked up on making calls this week: Coaches seem to be higher than scouts on Washington QB Michael Penix, in general. Some have him ahead of the presumed top guys (excluding Caleb Williams).
Without the injuries, he'd likely be the #2 QB in this draft. He answered some questions about his health at his pro day and has been healthy the last two seasons. But four consecutive season-ending injuries, including tearing the same ACL twice, is difficult to accept in a first round pick. That is especially true for the Giants given that Jones has had a concussion, two serious neck injuries, and a torn ACL. I'm not sure the Giants want to replace one injury-riddled QB with another. I'd be OK taking Penix in the middle of the first round after a trade down but don't think he'll last that long.
The Eagles traded a 3rd pick to jump the Giants for Smith and Dallas went to 13. The Giants presumably could have done the same deal, or drafted Parsons or Slater. All with elite type grades. All filling major positions of need.
The Giants opted to trade down to 20 and pick up the Bears 2022 first round pick (which would up the 7 pick) and draft Kadarius Toney instead. He did not have an elite level grade and carried a 77 from Sy.
Big risk trading out of the elite level talent. This team could have had Parsons, Slater or Smith but instead land with Toney and Neal.
The Eagles traded a 3rd pick to jump the Giants for Smith and Dallas went to 13. The Giants presumably could have done the same deal, or drafted Parsons or Slater. All with elite type grades. All filling major positions of need.
The Giants opted to trade down to 20 and pick up the Bears 2022 first round pick (which would up the 7 pick) and draft Kadarius Toney instead. He did not have an elite level grade and carried a 77 from Sy.
Big risk trading out of the elite level talent. This team could have had Parsons, Slater or Smith but instead land with Toney and Neal.
They could have drafted Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Wilson. The problem was less with the trade down and more that we didn't pick the right players after doing so. (DG apparently did want to draft Darrisaw, but Judge wanted Toney.)
New York’s 1st and 2nd are actually slightly more valuable than Minnesotas two 1st rounders. If you live by the value chart.
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The Giants sat at the 11 pick with Devonta Smith on board at 10, Rashawn Slater, Micah Parsons all carrying very high grades.
The Eagles traded a 3rd pick to jump the Giants for Smith and Dallas went to 13. The Giants presumably could have done the same deal, or drafted Parsons or Slater. All with elite type grades. All filling major positions of need.
The Giants opted to trade down to 20 and pick up the Bears 2022 first round pick (which would up the 7 pick) and draft Kadarius Toney instead. He did not have an elite level grade and carried a 77 from Sy.
Big risk trading out of the elite level talent. This team could have had Parsons, Slater or Smith but instead land with Toney and Neal.
They could have drafted Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Wilson. The problem was less with the trade down and more that we didn't pick the right players after doing so. (DG apparently did want to draft Darrisaw, but Judge wanted Toney.)
Garret Wilson was not in this draft.
Yes the Giants could have drafted Darrisaw and yes in every draft there are still players you can take that are very good but the point was the tier that the Giants drafted in literally had several great players and could have drafted any of them. They would have needed to the one guy around where they picked . And Darrisaw has been good but no Pro Bowls or All Pros or anything like that and has missed a pretty substantial amount of time too.
Beyond the Top 3, there’s a good chance that 3 others have 1st Round grades. Maybe the Giants pick up significant draft capital, wind up drafting in the middle of the first round and selecting a very fine WR!
Beyond the Top 3, there’s a good chance that 3 others have 1st Round grades. Maybe the Giants pick up significant draft capital, wind up drafting in the middle of the first round and selecting a very fine WR!
Don't leave quality on the table for a chance at quantity.
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In comment 16458792 HardTruth said:
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The Giants sat at the 11 pick with Devonta Smith on board at 10, Rashawn Slater, Micah Parsons all carrying very high grades.
The Eagles traded a 3rd pick to jump the Giants for Smith and Dallas went to 13. The Giants presumably could have done the same deal, or drafted Parsons or Slater. All with elite type grades. All filling major positions of need.
The Giants opted to trade down to 20 and pick up the Bears 2022 first round pick (which would up the 7 pick) and draft Kadarius Toney instead. He did not have an elite level grade and carried a 77 from Sy.
Big risk trading out of the elite level talent. This team could have had Parsons, Slater or Smith but instead land with Toney and Neal.
They could have drafted Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Wilson. The problem was less with the trade down and more that we didn't pick the right players after doing so. (DG apparently did want to draft Darrisaw, but Judge wanted Toney.)
Garret Wilson was not in this draft.
Yes the Giants could have drafted Darrisaw and yes in every draft there are still players you can take that are very good but the point was the tier that the Giants drafted in literally had several great players and could have drafted any of them. They would have needed to the one guy around where they picked . And Darrisaw has been good but no Pro Bowls or All Pros or anything like that and has missed a pretty substantial amount of time too.
They could have used the #7 pick they got from the Bears to take Wilson the next year instead of Neal.
I was OK with the trade down. I would have also been OK staying and picking. As I have said several times, I am not usually a fan of trading down out of a top 10 pick (I think we picked #11 that year), largely for the reason you note, namely that you are likely to miss out on a blue chip player. I prefer trade downs in the lower rounds. But we did get a #1 the next year so I was OK with the trade.
The room always shrinks with draft strategy, so anything your guy heard could be misdirection to identify who within the building is leaking information.
Exactly
Big risk trading out of the elite level talent. This team could have had Parsons, Slater or Smith but instead land with Toney and Neal.
Yes sir, don't get too cute and try to outsmart themselves. Get the blue chipper and be thrilled.
Seems to be the case. Not automatic, but likely in this scenario.
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McCarthy should be there at 6.
Seems to be the case. Not automatic, but likely in this scenario.
I wouldn't call it likely yet, nor would I call them out on McCarthy.
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McCarthy should be there at 6.
Not if Denver or Oakland try and move up.
That ain't happening with the Chargers at 5. Harbaugh ad Hortiz won't gift one of their divisional rivals their QB of the future in this scenario. That leaves Arizona at 4. The Cardinals have something like 13 picks in this year's draft. It's not about quantity with them at this point, but quality. Even the opposite is true for the Chargers, they won't transact within their division in this scenario. Zona is also more likely to trade with the Giants at 4 so they can get a top tier WR and that's only if they're ok moving offa MHJr, who's as sure a thing in this draft as you can get.
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McCarthy should be there at 6.
Not if Denver or Oakland try and move up.
It won’t be to #5 - why would the Chargers trade with them?
This is based off the fact that you’ll get a blue chip at 6, I don’t think you do at 11
This is based off the fact that you’ll get a blue chip at 6, I don’t think you do at 11
This basic fact seems to allude many people on this site. The Giants are clearly the more attractive trade partner for the Giants compared to the Vikings.
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In comment 16458664 Sean said:
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McCarthy should be there at 6.
Not if Denver or Oakland try and move up.
The Giants can make better offers. I doubt the Vikings can make a better offer, 6 to 11 is a huge difference. If the Giants truly want one of these QBs, they can get them.
6 overall
2024 2nd rounder
2025 first rounder
2025 third rounder
Jalin Hyatt
I think that beats NE dropping all the way to 11. Going through the season they just did and not adding a blue chip talent? I doubt that.
If the Giants did that they would suck dick to at least 2026. The rookie QB would most likely ride the bench for most of 2024 and the giants would not be getting much help from the draft. Worst case scenario would be if the rookie QB busted out or just became a jag
At least 3 other people on this thread have made this same claim and I'm not buying it.
The Vikings and the Giants are not the only teams in the market for QB-3 or 4. Denver and the Raiders both need a QB and are rumored to be trying to trade up to 4 or 5.
In addition, both AZ and LAC have stated that they're willing to trade out.
Not saying it's impossible for the Giants to stay put and take JJM at 6, but I believe it's not as likely as you (and others) think.
They have options if LAC want to trade down they could trade pick 11 and 23 for pick 5 and then trade 2025 1st and 3rd with pick 5 for pick 3. That would really be rough for us haha. I'm so ready for the draft to be here. Whether we get a QB or top wr or trade down, I believe in Schoen as GM.
... and if that QB turns out to be Josh Allen?
Overall, I think that's a reasonable, and widely held, view.
Good to very good would be a nice pickup, but not at the expense of quality draft picks that are needed to round out the team. Elite will mask, to an extent, deficiencies in the rest of the team. Good to very good can be good enough if the team is solid.
You don't give up premium draft assets to trade up for less than elite prospect. It's easy to say don't get cute. But, trading up is not a no brainer.
I'm inclined to offer a minor trade to 4 or 5 if the cost isn't high. Otherwise, sweat it out and wait for #6 to be on the clock. In a scenario where Minny has traded up to 3 and taken Maye, I'm thinking it's a good risk to stay put.
Taking a health risk QB begins and ends with the future QB, not the health of the last QB.
Overall, I think that's a reasonable, and widely held, view.
Good to very good would be a nice pickup, but not at the expense of quality draft picks that are needed to round out the team. Elite will mask, to an extent, deficiencies in the rest of the team. Good to very good can be good enough if the team is solid.
You don't give up premium draft assets to trade up for less than elite prospect. It's easy to say don't get cute. But, trading up is not a no brainer.
I'm inclined to offer a minor trade to 4 or 5 if the cost isn't high. Otherwise, sweat it out and wait for #6 to be on the clock. In a scenario where Minny has traded up to 3 and taken Maye, I'm thinking it's a good risk to stay put.
JJM has every quality you look for projecting to the next level for success. He's decisive, sees the field well, is a good processor, protects the football.
Where he goes in his career as to how high he can ascend, no one knows...but he has the tools and it appears the ethic and intangibles to be great.
If you have the physical and mental ability, and tools, and add in character/intangibles, then JJM is a good gamble. Go for it.
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at good to very good. Elite is possible, but Sy didn't sound confident in it.
Overall, I think that's a reasonable, and widely held, view.
Good to very good would be a nice pickup, but not at the expense of quality draft picks that are needed to round out the team. Elite will mask, to an extent, deficiencies in the rest of the team. Good to very good can be good enough if the team is solid.
You don't give up premium draft assets to trade up for less than elite prospect. It's easy to say don't get cute. But, trading up is not a no brainer.
I'm inclined to offer a minor trade to 4 or 5 if the cost isn't high. Otherwise, sweat it out and wait for #6 to be on the clock. In a scenario where Minny has traded up to 3 and taken Maye, I'm thinking it's a good risk to stay put.
JJM has every quality you look for projecting to the next level for success. He's decisive, sees the field well, is a good processor, protects the football.
Where he goes in his career as to how high he can ascend, no one knows...but he has the tools and it appears the ethic and intangibles to be great.
If you have the physical and mental ability, and tools, and add in character/intangibles, then JJM is a good gamble. Go for it.
According to asshat reports neither the Vikings or Giants want JJM, who knows what is true. I have a feeling JJM is going to make some people regret not taking him. My thoughts and feelings don't matter though. There's a real chance they take Nabers over JJM at 6.