QUARTERBACK
Draft Grade Index:
90+ All-Pro Projection
85-89: Pro Bowl Projection:
81-84: 1st Round – Year 1 starter
77-80: 2nd/3rd Round – Year 1 contributor, year 2-3 starter
74-76: Early Day 3: CoresSpecial teamer and rotational player
71-74: Mid Day 3: Core special teamer and backup
68-70: Late Day 3: Developmental and special teamer
TOP 15 GRADES AND ANALYSIS
1. Jayden Daniels – LSU – 6’3 / 210
Grade: 87
Five-year starter. Earned first team All-SEC and All-American in 2023. Spent three years at Arizona State where he was the first true freshman in school history to start week one. Transferred to LSU in 2022 where he ended up winning the Walter Camp Player of the Year Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, Davey O’Brien Award, and Heisman Trophy. (in 2023). Daniels brings two important traits to the table that fit perfect into today’s NFL. He is a true dual threat that knows how and when to use his legs to enhance both the passing and running games. He also has a tremendous amount of experience with his best football coming after he transferred into the SEC. The ability to process and get the ball out actually improved after making that jump in competition against NFL-caliber speed. He plays fast and confident, he shows poise and intelligence. If he can avoid a lot of heavy contact in order to stay on the field, he will end up a dangerous big play machine at the next level. The concerns around his body type and durability are warranted, but he hasn’t missed a start since November of 2019, shows extreme dexterity in his joints, and exudes both mental and physical toughness.
*Daniels set records for explosive plays. Daniels checks every both athletically. Daniels left his mark on the LSU coaching staff when it came to leadership and work ethic qualities (among coaches that set the bar high). Daniels has impressed in private meetings with teams. What else can one want? The body type is the one thing that will prevent some from putting him into the elite category (I bet he plays closer to 200 pounds) and because of historical data, I won’t push back against those that want to steer clear. But you have to keep in mind the historical data is partially from a different era of football. With how much quarterbacks are protected now; I think him being around 205-210 pounds is not as big of a deal as it would have been in 2000-2010. Brian Daboll made this offense more efficient in year one, but he knows that will never be good enough. They need more explosive plays while maintaining the efficiency both on the ground and via the air. That sums up Daniels and what he brings to the table. The game is changing and Daniels is closer to the prototype than had he come out ten years ago, by a mile. He’s the guy if he is somehow there at 6.
NFL Comparison: Randall Cunningham / RET
NFL Ceiling: Lamar Jackson / BAL
2. Caleb Williams – USC – 6’1 / 214
Grade: 87
Three-year starter. All-Big 12 in 2021 and All-Pac 12 in both 2023 and 2022 after transferring from Oklahoma to USC. Winner of the Heisman Trophy, AP Player of the Year, and Maxwell Award in 2022 after setting a USC single season record for total offense and touchdowns. Williams was a five-star recruit that followed Head Coach Lincoln Riley out west from Oklahoma following his freshman season. Riley guided two quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield in 2018 and Kyler Murray in 2019) to eventual number one overall slots in the NFL Draft in addition to reviving Jalen Hurts’ college career prior to being selected in the second round of the 2020 Draft. Williams’ succeeded in the quarterback-friendly system as well but his overall talent is on a different level. The playmaking ability is dripping off the innovative, creative competitor. He can create on his own and there is always a credible threat for the homerun when he touches the ball. Because his offensive line was so poor, specifically in 2023, Williams was forced out of structure often. He needed to make up for one of the worst scoring defenses as well and that combination created bad habits. He tried too hard to play hero-ball and got away from taking what was available initially. While that does make it look good on the highlight reel and it did provide clarity on what he is uniquely capable of, Williams will not get away with most of those circus acts at the next level. NFL defenses are too fast and complex for that. He will need to show he can get back to basic, fundamentally sound football that centers around ball protection and sound decision making. If he applies himself properly and the system around him is strong, the sky truly is the limit for the uber-talented star.
*Williams ends up with the same grade as Daniels. While I trust Daniels more, I will acknowledge Williams does have the ceiling of a perennial All-Pro. Simply put, he can do things nobody else can on a weekly basis. I also think he has shown better pocket awareness and “sixth sense” in his game. His contact balance and lower body strength will make him tougher to take down for a sack, and he throws better on the move. What puts him as “1B” in this class has nothing to do with some of the off-field stuff that bothers some. Painting his nails, crying in his mom’s arms after a loss, his sense of fashion. None of that matters to me and none of it factored into the grade. I simply do not like the lack of ability to control his “backyard” football. I do not think it will work against NFL speed and if anything, pro defenses will leverage against it. The fumble issue was all-time bad, the Notre Dame tape was as bad as it gets among the top guys in this class, and I think he created more issues than some want to admit for that USC team. Are there whispers about how different of a dude he is? Yup. Dating all the way back to high school. Do I fear him being the face of a franchise during a bad stretch? Yup. Do I think he’s reading and taking in the talk of him being a generational talent (whatever that means)? Yup. But he has a clean slate in the NFL, period. This isn’t Johnny Manziel. I will not be surprised if the personality differences get ugly if things get bad, however. And for some, that is enough to look past him.
NFL Comparison: Kyler Murray / ARI
NFL Ceiling: Aaron Rodgers / NYJ
3. JJ McCarthy – Michigan – 6’2 / 219
Grade: 84
Junior entry. Two-year starter, La. Grange, IL. An accomplished lacrosse and hockey player in high school, McCarthy spent one season as a backup before winning the starting job in 2022 and eventually ascending to a National Champion and Manning Award finalist. He went 27-1 as a starter and set program single-season records in interception rate and completion percentage. Playing in a pro-style offense under Jim Harbaugh that was built on a power run game, McCarthy did not have the carry the team week in, week out. His drop back volume and overall need to spray it all over the field was did not reach the level of most others at the position. When it mattered, however, he showed clutch genes and dependable play. McCarthy is a very mature 21-year-old that is still only scratching the surface of what he can become. Focusing on what he does well in big moments on the national stage under the big lights gives the notion he can handle the pressure, literally and figuratively, of leading a team from under center. The fact he did not have to throw the ball as often can leave his projection a bit gray. However, considering how much this position is based on what goes on between the ears along with an ability to be a dual threat, McCarthy is set up for success at the next level and has several key variables made clear.
*I was asked a few times during the fall and December where McCarthy would go in the 2024 Draft if he were to come out. I said day two more times than I can count. Before the deep dive into all of his film from 2023 AND 2022, that is what his game looked like from the casual onlooker. I thought (and still think) he was best suited to return to school and be the unquestioned #1 overall guy in 2025. When he declared, I went all in on his film and came out with him being the #3 guy in this class. You want to know who was the best in class against pressure? McCarthy. What about the best on third + fourth down? McCarthy. What about protecting the football? McCarthy. Who’s played the most football in a pro-style offense? McCarthy. It was not enough to put him ahead of the other two, but I do think he is the number three guy and the most realistic option for NYG at 6 if they stay put. Now the question is, do you trade up for him to avoid getting leapfrogged by MIN? It is a tough call. NYG is not a quarterback away and they need the resources (draft picks) to build this thing long term. McCarthy is good, but I would not label him special. After a long time pondering, I came away saying I would not give anything more than a third-round pick to move up for him and my preference is to not trade up at all.
NFL Comparison: Rich Gannon / RET
NFL Ceiling: Joe Burrow / CIN
4. Drake Maye – North Carolina – 6’4 / 223
Grade: 83
Third-year sophomore entry, two-year starter. All-ACC both seasons, first team in 2022. Coming from an athletic family (two brothers and father played basketball at North Carolina, one played baseball at Florida), Maye has been waiting for his time seemingly forever. He arrived to the Tar Heels as a four-star recruit and backed up eventual NFL quarterback Sam Howell for a season. After the redshirt year he went on to win FWAA Freshman All-American honors, finished as a Manning Award finalist, and earned ACC Player of the Year honors with a dual-threat approach. His production coming from his arm and legs matched the levels we have seen from the likes of Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Robert Griffin III, and Marcus Mariota to name a few. He led the team in rushing, but also set a program record with 38 passing touchdowns. He was just the fifth quarterback in ACC history to amass over 5,000 total yards. While Maye did see a dip in production in 2023 and there are specific elements to his game that absolutely need to be sharpened, he does show a prototype combination of traits to be a quality starter at the next level. He can make every throw at a high level, and he does a lot of good work on the move where he needs to be the creator. If he can gain more consistency with ball placement and become more confident in his decisions, the likelihood of him becoming a quality starting quarterback is high. The hesitation comes from inconsistent ball placement and random poor decisions he will make with the ball, both correctable issues if he can be put in the right position.
*I see Maye’s name thrown around into the Josh Allen/Justin Herbert section of projections. I can see why. The size and easy arm talent is close to (not quite there) those two. I do have Maye graded as the best pocket passer in the group. To some, that is enough to label him the guy in this class (or at least QB3) and I won’t argue against it. If I had to bet on who the NYG brass will make a move for, it is Maye. I’m simply worried about the inconsistency and step backwards he took in 2023. I don’t want to hear about a lack of supporting cast either. He had Josh Downs last year (Colts 2nd leading receiver as a rookie), and 2024 prospect Tez Walker in 2023 (and a RB that we will be talking about next year) along with a few others that will be in training camps / on pro rosters. It was not a poor supporting cast. Maye simply looks and plays like Tarzan some plays, looks and plays like Jane on others. The situation around him needs to be a certain way for it to work, more so than the other guys. The one positive NYG can be for him is the fact he will sit for a full season here. That is a must for him unless a team is fully loaded (which NYG is not). That can give this front office another 12 months to build the support system for him. Any of these four quarterbacks for NYG would be fully endorsed by me, but Maye is the one that scares me the most.
NFL Comparison: Jameis Winston / FA
NFL Ceiling: Eli Manning / RET
5. Bo Nix – Oregon – 6’2 / 214
Grade: 80
Five-year starter. All-Pac 12 in both 2023 and 2022, first team in 2023 in addition to winning the conference Offensive Player of the Year Award and a spot on the All-American Squad. Nix spent three years at Auburn, following in the footsteps of his father. He was the first true freshman to start under center for the program since 1946. The son of a legendary high school coach is battle tested. After winning the 2019 SEC Freshman of the Year award, his career began to spiral. He graduated in just three years and transferred to Oregon. He left there as the program’s all-time leader in completion percentage and set single season records in completions, yards, and passing touchdowns. His completion percentage in 2023 was an all-time NCAA record. Nix started more games under center than any other quarterback in FBS history. Simply put, this is a guy that is battle-tested, mentally and physically tough, and all-time productive. The physical traits are more than good enough to make everything happen on the field a quarterback needs to make happen.
*A big part of playing and evolving in the NFL at this position is the response to adversity. Not everyone wants to talk about it, but it is the truth. Nix has had almost unfair expectations put on his shoulders since he came out of high school. It went great, then it went horrible. Sounds like some of the young quarterbacks that flame out, right? Nix resurrected his career in a big way. Now, the fact he did it in the Pac-12 and not the SEC needs to be weighed (part of what makes the Daniels ascent special). But watch some of his early tapes at Auburn and watch his 2023 at Oregon; it is easy to see the contrast in him as a player. Nix is a guy I like a lot as a day two option for the Giants. Do I think he will be there? No. But I did not think Will Levis would fall to round 2 a year ago. It is a possibility. It would likely require a day 2 trade-up but there are options at #6 overall to trade down and pick up extra capital to offset any sort of loss. Or they can get a blue chip WR at #6 and make the aggressive move up in round 2 for a guy like Nix. I think his floor is what NYG currently has in Daniel Jones. His ceiling is something in the area of what Deshaun Watson was with Houston (pre-drama). Do you like the day two risk of Nix or the top 10 risk of one the guys above? Another tough call considering what else could come in through the door if they go receiver early.
NFL Comparison: Daniel Jones / NYG
NFL Ceiling: Deshaun Watson / CLE (from his HOU days)
6. Michael Penix Jr. - Washington – 6’2 / 216
Grade: 79
Sixth-year senior, five-year starter. Spent four seasons at Indiana where he earned All-Big Ten honors in 2020. Transferred to Washington in 2022 and earned All-Pac 12 honors in both 2023 and 2022. All-American in 2023 in addition to winning the Maxwell Award. Winner of the 2022 AP Comeback Player of the Year Award. Penix’s career was marred by injuries early on. He suffered four separate season endersto his right knee and both shoulders respectively. He was turning Indiana around in 2020, as he had them as highly ranked as number seven in the country and he was leading the Big Ten in passing before he went down. The transfer to Washington displayed what he was capable of. Penix did not miss a single game in two years, he set and then broke single season passing records for the program, and he led the nation in passing in both 2023 and 2022. He is battle tested and has come out on the other side of adversity a winner. He has more than enough arm talent and athletic ability to physically do it all. The lack of pressure he dealt with during his time at Washington from opposing pass rushers does leave some gray area around his projection. He did not always deal with tight windows and quality opposing defenses well. This is a wildcard-type prospect for multiple reasons, but one that has the ability to be an explosive play engineer.
*You ever golf with someone that is an absolute monster off the tee box? Forget everything else. He’s simply a dude every time he gets to tee it up, he launches it. That is Penix as a quarterback. He can make the explosive downfield passes with the be best. Because of scheme and who he had at receiver, Penix simply did not have to do a lot with crossers and/or west coast concepts. Because of his offensive line and poor Pac-12 pass rushes, he constantly had a ton of room to navigate within the pocket. The question that he enters the league with, beyond the scary medicals, is what he can do with his long drive off the tee box. Can he chip? Can he putt? Can get the approach shot over water and in front of the sand? How many clubs in that bag does he truly use at a high level? We just don’t know. There is a level of unknown to every prospect. That is what makes some of this playing darts with a blindfold on. Penix, if healthy and that is a big if, has as much arm talent as any of the guys listed above. For the record, the medicals downgraded him from an 82 grade. So don’t get it twisted. NYG in round two makes some sense as long as the medicals are clean but that would give NYG two quarterbacks with serious concerns in that area. Robbing Peter to pay Paul?
NFL Comparison: Marcus Mariota / WAS
NFL Ceiling: Jordan Love / GB
7. Joe Milton – Tennessee – 6’5 / 235
Grade: 75
Sixth-year senior. Two-year starter. Spent three seasons at Michigan before transferring to Tennessee in 2021 where he lost his job to Hendon Hooker (Detroit third round pick in 2023). Milton has rare arm strength combined with a plus-sized frame and easy confidence. The traits are there to create the high-ceiling outlook if he can be properly developed. In order for him to come anywhere near that ceiling, he needs a lot of ducks to line up perfectly. His mechanics, ability to read a defense, and accuracy all need significant upward strides, or the bottom is going to fall out fast. Hit or miss, star or castoff. A team will likely need to keep three quarterbacks on their 53-man roster for at least a full season because of how far away he is from being ready.
*If NYG is going to punt on quarterback early (which a case can be made for), Milton is a name to keep an eye on for day three. I think coaches will know within a year of working with him whether or not he can be a guy. That Tennessee offense is something else and while some will say it is too simple to project potential NFL success from, it can actually mean Milton has ability between the ears we don’t know about yet. Milton’s tools are as good as it gets. If the processing can catch up and his lower body can get more consistent, he’s 90% there. Some are fully out on Milton, I’m not. The NYG quarterback situation, if they don’t go QB early, is an ideal spot for a guy like Milton if you’re ok with three quarterbacks on the 53 and waving goodbye to Tommy Cutlets.
NFL Comparison: Jeff Driskel / WAS
NFL Ceiling: Carson Wentz / KC
8. Michael Pratt – Tulane – 6’2 / 217
Grade: 74
Four-year starter. All-AAC three straight years including first team honors in 2023 along with winning the Conference Offensive Player of the Year Award. Pratt turned the Tulane program around during his time under center. They had not reached double-digit wins since 1998 and they went 2-10 during Pratt’s first full season as the starter. He ended his career with two straight double digit-win seasons and a Cotton Bowl win over USC in January of 2023. His consistent ascent as a quarterback puts proof to the amount of work he puts in off the field. He is a plus-athlete and hard-nosed competitor that has the ability to lead through example. There are questions about his hip rotation and general feel for coverages, but the physical ability is there to be a true dual threat at the next level.
*Pratt is the kind of backup that can come in for a few weeks when your starter goes down with an injury and keeps it together. He can lead your team to a couple wins. I see some Josh Dobbs in his game but in terms of developing him into anything more, I’m not sure there is enough on tape to project anything more. The way he approaches his game and the mental side is ideal for any quarterback room, however. And the fact he put an entire program on his back and got it out of the basement means something. He can be a leader, one that makes a real difference beyond playing on the field.
NFL Comparison: Brandon Allen / SF
NFL Ceiling: Sam Howell / SEA
9. Spencer Rattler – South Carolina – 6’0 / 211
Grade: 74
Four-year starter. Spent three years at Oklahoma prior to transferring to South Carolina for his final two seasons. Following his redshirt season in 2019, Rattler burst on the scene in 2020, winning the Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year Award and first team All-Conference honors. He went 15-2 as a starter under Lincoln Riley. However, in 2021 he was benched week six for Caleb Williams. In total, Rattler started 42 games between the two programs. He won the team-MVP award both seasons with South Carolina and set a single season record for both completions and completion percentage. He is a gifted thrower with a lot of pro traits already developed in his game. The footwork, power created from his base, and pure arm talent all scream NFL starter. There is a lot of unknown to his game despite the heavy amount of experience. He rarely threw the ball deep and did not have a lot of success when doing so. He is undersized and he does not have standout athleticism. Rattler projects to a quality backup at the next level that has the arm talent and swagger to start if he can develop and hide the shortcomings he could not extinguish over the 42 college starts.
*There is a ton of love for Rattler around the league. It really seems like he is heading toward a round two slot. I can’t get there on him. There are too many components beyond looking good when you throw that matter to me. He falls below average in multiple areas of what I look for and there were some immaturity concerns that centered around him thinking he was better than he was. That did not factor into his grade, but it did help break the tie between a few guys. Rattler will look good enough to get you excited, but once the filters come off the finished product won’t be enough.
NFL Comparison: Bailey Zappe / NE
NFL Ceiling: Baker Mayfield / TB
10. Jordan Travis – Florida State – 6’1 / 200
Grade: 74
Sixth year senior. Four-year starter. All-ACC in both 2023 and 2022, first team in 2023. Won the ACC Offensive Player of the Year Award in 2023. Travis transferred to Florida State from Louisville in 2019 and leaves the storied program as one of the most accomplished and productive quarterbacks in its history. He set records in career touchdowns and total offense in addition to finishing atop the quarterback rushing record book and second in passing. His late-season ankle injury ended his final season early and hampered his pre-draft process. He proved to be capable of leading an offense and creating on his own with both his legs and arm. The creative playmaker protected the ball, came up big in clutch situations, and led by example. There are multiple physical shortcomings to his game that do limit his ceiling, but this will be a quality addition to anyone’s quarterback room and should be in the league for a long time as an athletically-biased backup.
*If you liked Bryce Young last year – you have to at least somewhat like Travis. There is a lot of Steph Curry in their games; undersized but slippery, weak but tough to get hands on, and always ready to fire even when he isn’t fully lined up. Travis’ significant broken leg suffered late in the year should keep him off the field 100% until training camp but that won’t impact the grade. He will be drafted to provide depth and in most cases, he will be the third guy. Is there potential for more? Yes. Travis has the gamer-trait in him that I’ve been drawn to since 2022. He is a quiet-leader type that teammates respond well to. If NYG wants to wait until the round 5/6 area for a new quarterback, Travis is on my short list of guys I want that I believe will be around.
NFL Comparison: John Wolford / TB
NFL Ceiling: Case Keenum / HOU
11. Kedon Slovis – BYU – 6’2 / 223
Grade: 71
Five-year starter. Spent three seasons at USC, where he won Pac 12 Freshman of the Year in 2019 and earned first team All-Pac 12 honors in 2020. Transferred to Pittsburgh in 2022 before ending up at Brigham Young in 2023. Slovis was heading for stardom after a historic true freshman season for one of the most followed college programs in the nation. It only declined from there to the point where he lost his job in 2021. He replaced Kenny Pickett at Pittsburgh but never quite took off, prompting the second transfer. Slovis’ completion percentage decreased all five years of his career. The primary concern is that he did not progress and there is a credible durability concern. He is an underrated athlete, however, and there are a lot of fundamentals to the position that look natural and consistent to the point where he can project to back up duty for years.
*Rewind back to 2019, the year in which he looked like a first rounder, and I was initially thinking this could be the next Josh Rosen! Yes, that Josh Rosen. Yes, arguably my worst miss as an evaluator at the quarterback position. That said, maybe the projection in 2019 does end up being accurate. Rosen is currently holding on for dear life as a backup and that is where I end up slotting Slovis. This is a guy that tested athletically much better than I anticipated. He looks good in workouts and has a very clean, mature way about him on and off the field. Things just don’t seem to click when he gets pushed away from his point. Despite the experience, Slovis never quite matched what we saw in 2019. Multiple programs but the same shortcomings. He can stick somewhere as a backup, though.
12. Devin Leary – Kentucky – 6’1 / 215
Grade: 71
Sixth-year senior. Five-year starter. Spent five seasons at North Carolina State before transferring to Kentucky in 2023. He suffered season ending injuries in both 2022 (shoulder) and 2020 (fibula). His best season came in 2021 where he broke the program record set by Philip Rivers for passing touchdowns. The highly experienced, tough-minded signal caller has the arm talent to make it at the next level. He has a small, but thick frame and a fast release. The accuracy woes led to a career high in interceptions and career low in completion percentage in his one season in the SEC. The starting point is strong enough to warrant a third string job for Leary, but he will need to prove he is more the 2021 version of himself than the 2023 one fast if he wants to stick to a roster long-term.
*Everyone that watches Leary throw the ball is impressed. Everyone. He can spin it as well as anyone. I’ve been keeping an eye on him since 2021 where he really caught fire and there were rumblings about him declaring for the draft. 2022 did not pan out. The transfer to Kentucky, replacing eventual second rounder Will Levis was a gamble, one with huge upside, also did not pan out. Leary is the kind of guy that looks better in workouts than on film. His response to pressure has never been good and he has enough experience in multiple systems with some solid-enough talent surrounding him to dampen his projection. Backup life is for him, one without much upside to be more.
13. Sam Hartman – Notre Dame – 6’1 / 211
Grade: 70
Sixth-year senior. Five-year starter. All-ACC in 2022 and 2021 before transferring to Notre Dame for 2023. Left Wake Forest as the all-time leader in yards, completions, and touchdowns and finished second all-time in ACC career yards. Hartman is a free-spirit type quarterback that will take chances, play strong against pressure, and bounce back from adversity. Hartman was one of only five FBS true freshmen to start week one in 2018 before losing his job a year later. Hartman won the job again in 2020 and never looked back. This is a guy that played well in multiple systems and was often playing against defenses more talented than what he was working with offensively. He won two separate bowl game MVP awards and has an immense amount of experience under his belt. Physically, Hartman can throw the deep ball with strength and precision. Mentally, he is the coachable type and brings a level of toughness to the team with the way he plays. He will be a backup that elevates the room but lacks the upside of anything more.
*Hartman does just enough to keep him in the discussion. He is a good kid, and he is the kind of guy that raises up the quarterback room behind closed doors. The experience he has as the poster boy of multiple college program shows the needed and desired maturity coaches want from their quarterbacks. When push comes to shove, I don’t think the talent is enough to project anywhere past third string.
14. Carter Bradley – South Alabama – 6’3 / 218
Grade: 68
Sixth-year senior. Three-year starter. Two-time All-Sun Belt. Spent four seasons at Toledo before transferring to South Alabama in 2022. Son of Colts Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley. Carter never fully held the starting gig at Toledo but he did play a credible amount of snaps his final three seasons. He set a single season school record in his first year with South Alabama right away, putting himself on the NFL radar. While 2023 did not meet expectations, Bradley continued to build his reputation as a guy that can make every NFL throw while handling the mental capacity the position demands. The NFL lineage helps strengthen the notion.
*There is not much to get overly excited about with Bradley, but there is a safe feel to his game that was also seen at the Senior Bowl. He knows when to take chances and when to take the single. He plays smart. His knowledge of the game alone is worth looking at because that backup quarterback, in some cases, can be just as much of a coaching staff add-on.
15. Tanner Mordecai – Wisconsin – 6’2 / 210
Grade: 68
Sixth year senior. Three-year starter. Spent three seasons at Oklahoma before transferring to SMU, where he spent two years. Finished off at Wisconsin in 2023. All-AAC in 2021. Mordecai has had statistical successs in air-raid type offensive systems. He threw over 70 touchdowns and 7,000 yards over a two-year span. He can sling it and the athletic ability is up there with some of the best in the class. When he got matched up against a tougher schedule in the Big Ten, Mordecai did not raise his level of play. While he still has the occasional flash and his ability to run is always a threat, Mordecai proved that his ceiling is too low to credibly project anything more than a backup.
*This is a kid I found myself wanting to root for. In evaluation, you always need to be careful with a situation like that. It can hide the truth. The truth is Mordecai was in a QB-friendly system for years and it created a lot of production for him. He also turned the ball over too often in that system as well. I always speak about how I like Jayden Daniels ascending after transferring a level up to the SEC. Mordecai did the opposite at Wisconsin. The small hands factor into the equation as well but I still think he is worth a shot in training camp because the talent has always, and still is, there.
16-20
16. John Rhys Plumlee – Central Florida – 6’0 / 200: 67
17. Taulia Tagovailoa – Maryland – 5’10/202: 67
18. Jack Plummer – Louisville – 6’4 / 216: 67
19. Austin Reed – Western Kentucky – 6’1 / 220: 67
20. Jason Bean – Kansas – 6’1 / 184: 65
NYG APPROACH
The discussion that won’t go away. I don’t get to BBI much from January through March – but every time I do I see multiple threads on Daniel Jones and the future of the Giants quarterback position. The majority of fans seem ready to move on. The front office has been aggressive with their pursuit of scouting and information gathering around the quarterbacks in this class. And Joe Schoen did put in an out of the contract he signed him to after 2024. It is an expensive one, but nothing worth avoiding for financial reasons alone. So, where do they go with this top-six slot in the draft? Ironically, the same slot they chose Jones from in the 2019 NFL Draft.
I was skeptical that, after the seesaw relationship between this front office and Jones, that Schoen would pull the plug just six games (in a horrid situation) after signing him to the largest contract in franchise history. And to be real, there is a small(er) part of me that still feels that way. Do they believe in Jones? Hard to imagine especially with the two serious injuries suffered in 2023 alone. Does that mean they will go all-in on a new quarterback in 2024 which also means likely passing on a blue-chip receiver (arguably the top need on this team outside of QB)? That is where I’m coming from. NYG can punt on quarterback if their guy isn’t there and still walk away with a true nucleus player at a game-altering position. This would leave the future of this franchise on unstable ground, but whatever they end up doing in 2025 at the position would have a head start should they have a true number one target and a few solid accessory pieces to work with.
Now, if they do go quarterback with #6 overall (or higher with a trade up), who’s it gonna be? Here is where I currently see it:
Williams and Daniels are off the board
Minnesota is going to trade up for Maye or McCarthy
New England is 50/50 on taking Maye or McCarthy
So, odds are without a trade up, NYG will not get one of the top four quarterbacks. The only way I see it happening is if the Pats don’t want one. I do think it is possible they go the long-term route and build the supporting nucleus with Joe Alt or Marvin Harrison Jr. That would be best case scenario for NYG because even if they get leapfrogged by MIN, they still have the leftover between Maye/McCarthy. I have my preference, and it is the latter. But even with that, I don’t see “special”. I do see “better”. I do see “cheaper”. But keep in mind when it comes to that cheaper label, the economic advantage of the rookie quarterback window is only 2-3 years. They’re paying Jones big money in 2024 and the cap penalty for cutting him in 2025 is near $25 million. This situation is so much more complicated than it needed to be, much more than we want it to be.
So, such as in life, try to come up with simple solutions that chip away at the most glaring problems. The glaring problem on this roster both short and long term is a low ceiling quarterback situation in a league that is run by elite quarterbacks. NYG does not have one. They will not have the possibility of one until a new face comes in. NYG also has a shot at an elite wide receiver. The priority is the former and a sweet consolation prize is the latter. They are in the middle of a five-year rebuild with some key pieces in place. That said, they still are very far away from being a credible contender and because of the money already designated for Andrew Thomas and Dexter Lawrence, they can’t afford to sell multiple future premium draft slots for a good, not great, quarterback prospect. The draft is where they need to build from with multiple doubles, triples, and maybe a couple of home runs.
NYG needs to stay at 6. Coin flip between the elite receiver & good, not great, quarterback. I do not see NYG being very competitive in 2025 so it could be in their best interest to move around the rest of draft weekend in an effort to pick up extra bullets for a trade up in 2025. That is my conclusion.
I hope They are willing to roll the dice on Penix, if the top 4 are gone, I’m ok with 6, you want to talk upside, I think he has a ceiling that can match Daniels.
I don’t want to lose that #1 pick for 25, I think that may be a top 3 pick.
Good point Jim
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having a “QB Guy” with a pretty outrageous track record of predicting success. This is a former coach who put a few QB’s in college, stopped coaching and his program hasn’t put one in since, and its been a long time…. He’s not a professional evaluator but a huge Giants fan, I also usually have to beg him to watch tape. I’ve sent him things on the top 4 and got these comments back:
Williams - I guess if I had to do grades, he’d get the top one because there’s so much talent, but I wouldn’t draft him. I see a Mahomes style player but Mahomes success isn’t all due to athletic ability, he doesn’t seem to have the other things Mahomes does
Daniels - Won’t survive but fun to watch
McCarthy - I can do something with him but I wouldn’t get excited about drafting him
Maye - This is the guy I want on the Giants, I see some Eli there where he’ll just stand in, take a shot and keep going. Thats what you need to play your career in NY.
Bonus on Nix - I do have a very, very close friend who’s nephew was a NCAA prospect and accepted a PWO role to be a redshirt QB for Oregon, he spent spring and summer with the team before decided he didn’t have a future in the sport and enrolling at a college closer to home and not playing football, he did however spend a lot of time with Nix when he was at Oregon as the coaches asked him to “Tie himself to Bo.”
His comments weren’t technical as he was a 17 year old kid, however he was in awe of how knowledgable Bo was about the game, stating multiple times that he knew more about football than most of the coached. What I thought was funny is that when he met him his first impression was “who’s this bumpkin?” Until they got into the position meetings and Bo started talking about the offense. Biased opinion from the kid, but he believes Nix should be in the first round.
Great post Bitey! I agree completely on Maye. I see a huge ceiling there and think Daboll would work his incredible magic on him to overcome the concerns that Sy has mentioned here. I don't agree about Daniels. I see a future Randall Cunningham there and believe the NFL rules put in place over the past decade will protect him to a greater degree than RGIII. His assessment on Nix is interesting and I would have no problem selecting one of the receivers at six and then trading back up into the first round to get Nix or Penix if they fall far enough. But his assessment of JJM is exactly what worries me the most. It feels so reminiscent of DJ it is scary.
Regarding Daniels there’s two things worth mentioning. This person’s evaluations are solely for what he thinks is is best for the Giants, and he’s never really loved running QBs.
From his rookie season on he never liked the fact Jones ran so much and was always worried it was going to get him killed, oddly his biggest injuries have been in the pocket.
1. Daniels doesn’t attack middle of the field , drops his eyes and looks to run it not pass immediately if his first read is taken away
2. Drake Maye poor throws are footwork issues that might be correctable at next level . Agree?
3..Penix rarely attacks middle of field , and I think has a slow windup/ release ?
If all one had to go one is Bo Nix 2022-23 tape would that elevate his rating ?
Love your clearly worded assessments and willingness to own your evaluations ,. Nobody’s perfect but your humility as an evaluator is a real positive . Thanks again.
1) Middle of field stuff is overblown. His volume of passes over the middle is still about 70% of the other guys (if not more). In addition - they didn't as him to do it a lot AND they didn't have to. Saying he can't do it is not fair.
2) A lot of Maye's accuracy issues stem from footwork. Not all of them. It can be fixed. But so can everything.
3) Penix didn't get asked to. It is not in their scheme much. His release is weird, yes. And he does have mechanical issues that show up in a bad way on short to intermediate passes.
4) Bo Nix grade was barely impacted by the Auburn years, if at all.
Good, yes. Elite? Likely not.
QB class? Is there anyone who could emerge as an elite
prospect? And is there a QB in this year's group that Daboll
is saying "I WANT THIS GUY NOW"?
I don't see anyone special yet. I have 4 guys that are potential 1st rounders that are in the 80-85 range.
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Burrow. I think that's pretty good. No?
Good, yes. Elite? Likely not.
I would take Raiders-era Rich Gannon in a heartbeat. Elite would be awesome, but a guy in the Eli, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson mold who hovers around the top ten has a Super Bowl run in them? It’s a major step up.
McCarthy's ceiling has more to do with the mental state and clutch gene. Some guys get really insecure talking about it - and that is fine. I think it is a real thing.
That is whay I am drawn to him coming here to a situation where he sits for a year, giving the FO another year to build a support system, and then take off from there. He can be physically good enough to get this team into the playoffs and that is where the mental state takes over the most. To me, it is what has kept Kirk Cousins away from being a true star.
Ideally, I'd enjoy seeing your ranking of all positions from easiest to hardest for you (and most scouts) to assess success in the NFL.
Thank you – and great work, as always. I enjoy your writing style as much as the substance of your write-ups.
For me?
QB and CB are the toughest. Situation around them dictates so much of their success at the next level.
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To me he seems like a solid prospect with a higher floor than some of the others but doesn’t seem to have any sort of elite standout trait where you can squint and see him becoming a top tier QB which is essentially the conclusion Greg Cosell came to. Same goes for Nix whereas with Maye and Penix, if they clean up the other parts of their game the arm talent seems to lend itself to a higher ceiling. Cosell on JJ - ( New Window )
McCarthy's ceiling has more to do with the mental state and clutch gene. Some guys get really insecure talking about it - and that is fine. I think it is a real thing.
That is whay I am drawn to him coming here to a situation where he sits for a year, giving the FO another year to build a support system, and then take off from there. He can be physically good enough to get this team into the playoffs and that is where the mental state takes over the most. To me, it is what has kept Kirk Cousins away from being a true star.
I think if JJM can improve his throwing mechanics to hone in his touch and accuracy on the 25+ yard throws, then he will become elite. His reasonable floor is that of a QB that could get you to the playoffs and then play clutch and who knows how far you get. That's just my perspective. I would trade a future 2nd and 3rd for him, but I wouldn't do anything more because we have so many holes.
Our best case scenario is Minnesota trading the farm for Maye at 3 and we could get JJM for pick 6 plus future 2 and 3 or less. Nabers isn't a bad consolation prize, but I think we will get 7 wins next year +/- 1 or 2. That won't get us within reach of a promising qb next year and we will just be stuck on the carousel. That realistic fear of our future is enough to spend a bit to secure a QB like JJM.
These college kids.....potentially are always the next Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson.....
But never Marcus Mariotta, Josh Rosen,Ryan Leaf.
Or even just the next Kirk Cousin, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield.
I all for a QB or WR.....
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To me he seems like a solid prospect with a higher floor than some of the others but doesn’t seem to have any sort of elite standout trait where you can squint and see him becoming a top tier QB which is essentially the conclusion Greg Cosell came to. Same goes for Nix whereas with Maye and Penix, if they clean up the other parts of their game the arm talent seems to lend itself to a higher ceiling. Cosell on JJ - ( New Window )
McCarthy's ceiling has more to do with the mental state and clutch gene. Some guys get really insecure talking about it - and that is fine. I think it is a real thing.
That is whay I am drawn to him coming here to a situation where he sits for a year, giving the FO another year to build a support system, and then take off from there. He can be physically good enough to get this team into the playoffs and that is where the mental state takes over the most. To me, it is what has kept Kirk Cousins away from being a true star.
Also, JJM could likely have continued evolving and been the #1 pick in 2025. If we pick around 6 (which I think is the highest we will be in 2025) then getting JJM would cost a lot more than our 1st and a future 2nd or 3rd. So why isn't that worth it? We either take a swing on one of these guys or ride the bench for a long time without a contender QB, imp. Take a swing.
He was in severs high-leverage situations making high-difficulty throws into small, NFL -type windows. He's done enough to get a grade of very good ball protection. You just have to watch it all, which I understand takes time.
Yes - but I won't want him until the 5th
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It does sound like you think the Giants should draft a QB at some point in the draft. Would you agree that if they passed on QB on day one, they should take one later on? (Milton as you mentioned)
I do also think the rookie QB window is overstated. You are trying to find a clear upgrade at the position, the cap shouldn't factor in. You don't keep a subpar player around because you can't optimize the rookie QB window.
Building the super teams often begins with paying a QB sub-market value. KC ascended that way. SEA ascended that way with Wilson. SF is ascending that way. BUF ascended that way.
I think it is near-mandatory to build a sustainable winner in today's NFL.
If NYG does not go QB in round 1, I do not think it is mandatory to bring a new one. You can punt until next year altogether. If the value and upside match up later on, go for it. Don't force it.
Agreed, don’t take a qb in a later round just for the sake of taking one. We have too many holes and too few picks. If you can’t get one of your top rated qb’s better to punt entirely for a year
And thats even with draft picks at 2, 4, 6, 5, 7 and 11
If JJ McCarthy is on the board at 4 they should take him.
And thats even with draft picks at 2, 4, 6, 5, 7 and 11
If JJ McCarthy is on the board at 4 they should take him.
If our asshat report about Minnesota is true, then they want Maye with a fallback option of Penix at 11 or so. That would make JJM likely be there at 6 if Maye goes 3 (whether it's to the Patriots or Vikings). Minnesota would have to trade close to the same package to get up for JJM at 4 as they would have to for Maye at 3. So this asshat report seems like it could be valid, if they really want Maye then they would be dumb to just trade the same package for JJM when he isn't in the same tier to them. Penix at 11 would make much more sense, or maybe via slight trade up but I think he could likely be had at 11.
Thanks again. Great, great content.
Thanks again. Great, great content.
I look for the response to the bad - AKA what do they do next drive? Later in game? Next week?
I strongly weigh what these guys do against their best competition / big moments / high leverage situations.
Deal breakers? Not really. Certain things like getting the ball out too slow because they don't see it will matter more than arm strength.
He would be a no brainer
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And see how many times the Giants were on the clock with a QB with an 84 grade like McCarthy is likely to be at 6
And thats even with draft picks at 2, 4, 6, 5, 7 and 11
If JJ McCarthy is on the board at 4 they should take him.
If our asshat report about Minnesota is true, then they want Maye with a fallback option of Penix at 11 or so. That would make JJM likely be there at 6 if Maye goes 3 (whether it's to the Patriots or Vikings). Minnesota would have to trade close to the same package to get up for JJM at 4 as they would have to for Maye at 3. So this asshat report seems like it could be valid, if they really want Maye then they would be dumb to just trade the same package for JJM when he isn't in the same tier to them. Penix at 11 would make much more sense, or maybe via slight trade up but I think he could likely be had at 11.
He would be a no brainer
Thanks! It's a fools errand, but I fantasize about the prospects of Daboll getting his hand on a talent like Daniels.
Nothing strong. I do see a couple guys that are likely to be in the 83-87 range
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After his colossal failure in awarding the DJ contract, Schoen's biggest mistake in his tenure was not trading Barkley and McKinney at the trade deadline this past October. Had he done so, he would have received several 2024 day two picks AND it would be all but certain that we would have lost at least two of the four games we went on to win (GB, WASH, NE and PHIL). And would probably be picking second and getting one of the two quarterback prizes in this year's draft.
It wasn't about tanking. It was about managing the roster to ensure proper outcomes. As it stands, we got nothing for either Barkley or McKinney, who will now compete directly against us, and we got meaningless wins that literally hand over perhaps the biggest prize of the 2024 draft, at least according to Sy, to the one rival whom we have actually had success against over the last decade.
I certainly have to agree with this. You don't want to lose on purpose. You can't ask your team to do that. But with the handwriting on the wall, you're not going to the playoffs and you're not going to play the free agent game with those guys you got to move them for picks. And we didn't.
Exactly. In baseball, when you know you're out of it, you don't try to actually lose games (partly because the draft is very different), but what you do is trade off short term assets for longer term assets, while those in contention do the opposite. I don't think the Giants were being smart about it.
Then, why punt QB? I know things can change, but that seems significant.
I also don't think the Giants are operating as a team which expects to be picking at the top of the draft next year. You don't give up a valuable draft pick for Burns (39) if you expect to be picking top 5 and then paying him too.
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I am more confident there will be multiple 90+ WRs next year than 85+ QBs
Then, why punt QB? I know things can change, but that seems significant.
What do you mean "punt"? Pass on, say, McCarthy if he falls in their laps? Or not trade a bunch of picks to go after, say, Maye?
Drew Lock, duh!
I’m thinking this question has cost Schabs many hours of sleep the past few months. And now it’s probably total insomnia.
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I’m thinking this question has cost Schabs many hours of sleep the past few months. And now it’s probably total insomnia.
I doubt it has cost them sleep. They picked up Lock. They will run with either Lock or Jones when he is ready. They don't have a choice, do they?
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In comment 16459481 The Mike said:
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After his colossal failure in awarding the DJ contract, Schoen's biggest mistake in his tenure was not trading Barkley and McKinney at the trade deadline this past October. Had he done so, he would have received several 2024 day two picks AND it would be all but certain that we would have lost at least two of the four games we went on to win (GB, WASH, NE and PHIL). And would probably be picking second and getting one of the two quarterback prizes in this year's draft.
It wasn't about tanking. It was about managing the roster to ensure proper outcomes. As it stands, we got nothing for either Barkley or McKinney, who will now compete directly against us, and we got meaningless wins that literally hand over perhaps the biggest prize of the 2024 draft, at least according to Sy, to the one rival whom we have actually had success against over the last decade.
I certainly have to agree with this. You don't want to lose on purpose. You can't ask your team to do that. But with the handwriting on the wall, you're not going to the playoffs and you're not going to play the free agent game with those guys you got to move them for picks. And we didn't.
Exactly. In baseball, when you know you're out of it, you don't try to actually lose games (partly because the draft is very different), but what you do is trade off short term assets for longer term assets, while those in contention do the opposite. I don't think the Giants were being smart about it.
Yeah the near losses and wins balanced out, but not trading Barkley was really dumb. I'd imagine we would be picking in the 3-5 range without Barkley and we would have an extra pick however late it was. Mara's comments on this made it seem like he had an influence ("I don't like giving up, we really wanted to keep him etc").
I think it's great. If we have the chance to get the number 2 WR in this class- think of the value if we were to trade down? As long as we like one of the QB's after 4, this is a great opportunity to get a QB.
Teams know that it is no bluff. If we can't trade down-- getting a super WR is an option.
So if we like Penix or Nix-- - and trade back is the option -- then please do it!
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Still saying I would have liked Fields as a chance. With an elite WR - and then in rd 2 and rd 3 more than likely a De and CB -- we'd be potentially building an elite Defense while fields works with a supreme WR.
Sy: why do you think JJM wouldn't be worth trading more than a 3rd for? Would you not be willing to trade a future 2nd and 3rd to AZ if he could be had for that? I'm getting the sense that it won't matter and the Vikings backup option to Maye is Pennix which makes it more likely JJM could be had at pick 6 if Maye goes 3rd. I still wonder why you wouldn't trade a bit more for JJM in this theoretical scenario though?
I really appreciate your rankings and I think they are very accurate and solid, love your analysis. Thanks again.
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In comment 16459718 Go Terps said:
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I’m thinking this question has cost Schabs many hours of sleep the past few months. And now it’s probably total insomnia.
I doubt it has cost them sleep. They picked up Lock. They will run with either Lock or Jones when he is ready. They don't have a choice, do they?
True … but the overriding decision is still in front of them … what should they do, or try to do in the draft? I can’t see them resting comfortably until the die is cast and they have to play the hand (they dealt themselves).
I don’t agree. I think it’s highly likely we never see Jones take another snap if we take a QB at 6.
The smartest thing would be to bench Jones or cut him when he can pass a physical after June 1st. So no, I don't agree with your in all likelihood scenario personally.
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In comment 16459723 Spider56 said:
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In comment 16459718 Go Terps said:
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I’m thinking this question has cost Schabs many hours of sleep the past few months. And now it’s probably total insomnia.
I doubt it has cost them sleep. They picked up Lock. They will run with either Lock or Jones when he is ready. They don't have a choice, do they?
True … but the overriding decision is still in front of them … what should they do, or try to do in the draft? I can’t see them resting comfortably until the die is cast and they have to play the hand (they dealt themselves).
I doubt it bothers them as much as us...Schoen has his plans or will have them before draft night.
What bothers us and not them is they know what they want to do, who they want to do it with and what they will do if x, y, or z happens.
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has to do with Michigan not really asking him to throw nearly as much as the other guys and playing within a conservative offense?
He was in severs high-leverage situations making high-difficulty throws into small, NFL -type windows. He's done enough to get a grade of very good ball protection. You just have to watch it all, which I understand takes time.
Thank you.
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And see how many times the Giants were on the clock with a QB with an 84 grade like McCarthy is likely to be at 6
And thats even with draft picks at 2, 4, 6, 5, 7 and 11
If JJ McCarthy is on the board at 4 they should take him.
If our asshat report about Minnesota is true, then they want Maye with a fallback option of Penix at 11 or so. That would make JJM likely be there at 6 if Maye goes 3 (whether it's to the Patriots or Vikings).
What asshat report and when?
If Minnesota's strategy is Maye and fallback with Penix, maybe that should be Schoen's as well? Furthermore, maybe Penix should be QB4 and JJM QB5.
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In comment 16459645 HardTruth said:
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And see how many times the Giants were on the clock with a QB with an 84 grade like McCarthy is likely to be at 6
And thats even with draft picks at 2, 4, 6, 5, 7 and 11
If JJ McCarthy is on the board at 4 they should take him.
If our asshat report about Minnesota is true, then they want Maye with a fallback option of Penix at 11 or so. That would make JJM likely be there at 6 if Maye goes 3 (whether it's to the Patriots or Vikings).
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What asshat report and when?
If Minnesota's strategy is Maye and fallback with Penix, maybe that should be Schoen's as well? Furthermore, maybe Penix should be QB4 and JJM QB5.
Check the thread Vikings Asshat Report. I'm fine with a WR like Nabers or Odunze at 6, but I think we will be in QB hell for a long time without this high of a pick for a while. Nothing different than what we've experienced for the past decade, nothing new :).
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In comment 16459645 HardTruth said:
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And see how many times the Giants were on the clock with a QB with an 84 grade like McCarthy is likely to be at 6
And thats even with draft picks at 2, 4, 6, 5, 7 and 11
If JJ McCarthy is on the board at 4 they should take him.
If our asshat report about Minnesota is true, then they want Maye with a fallback option of Penix at 11 or so. That would make JJM likely be there at 6 if Maye goes 3 (whether it's to the Patriots or Vikings).
.
What asshat report and when?
If Minnesota's strategy is Maye and fallback with Penix, maybe that should be Schoen's as well? Furthermore, maybe Penix should be QB4 and JJM QB5.
I do like Penix a lot too, I wouldn't take him at 6 but if we could trade down to 8-10 for an extra 2nd plus Penix then I think it would be a great move.
That would be an almost-great move that Schoen can actually execute himself.