Just a hypothetical about job security. Imagine you are Brian Daboll and you and your advisors look at the history of your employer.
You are the first head coach to get a third year since 2006. And even that head coach was reportedly nearly fired after his third year.
Your immediate predecessors (three of them) were all fired after two years.
You had an unexpectedly good first year, and presumably endorsed investing in Jones. He got battered, and allegedly has lingering issues from his neck and shoulder.
You can influence management, and there three possibilities.
1) Stick with your original position Jones is the guy, and not draft a quarterback who will meaningfully compete with him
2) Hedge your bet, keep Jones, but draft a quarterback who can meaningfully compete with him
3) Let Jones go and bet on the new guy
Again, if you're just trying to ensure you get a 4th year, what would you pick?
Schoen presumably has the final say, but I am wondering what you endorse if you were the head coach.
I would not have after the 2022 season.
Politics, personal connections, poor perspective on the 2022 season and playoff win, all contribute to this mess known as QB Hell.
His only decision(and it is coupled with Schoen) should be to build a team that is competitive and sustainable.
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if he didn’t get injured, but he did so this seems like an obvious answer - 2 or 3 since I see them as pretty much the same thing and would be up to Schoen more IMO on which route to take.
Schoen presumably has the final say, but I am wondering what you endorse if you were the head coach.
I don’t think it matters unless the options are #2 is no QB at 6 (round 2 or later) and #3 is QB at 6.
Maybe you are confused on what the difference between a hypothetical and speculation is?
If you were in his shoes, what would option would you pick? That's the hypothetical posed in the thread starter.
If your job was on the line, would you comfortable if that reasonable replacement wasn't available until 2025?
Given that Schoen SI interview, I am back on the "They're keeping Jones because they believe in him" side of the fence this week = )
Based on your preamble it's clear you would vote #1.
as much as people bag on the contract, the way it was structured gave them a clear ripcord in this exact worst case scenario.
if jones sucked last year or had a major injury (he hit the daily double), they were likely to pick high and be in position to get a qb in what has been projected as a good QB draft for over a year with caleb/drake.
of course there is never any guarantee they can get a QB they like from the draft but that is basically the only place to get a franchise QB and the contract they signed jones to was never prohibitive of that.
as schoen has said ad nauseam they met with all the QBs last year even after signing him. heck if they liked levis last year they could have taken him. i think they top 30's a few qbs last year too (hendon hooker?).
if you are ever on the clock with a QB you feel strongly about available, unless you have burrow mahomes or herbert you should take that player. and honestly maybe you take that guy anyway even if it's just injury backup (burrow has hit IR twice now right?).
I think this is the only thing that makes sense. Medicals are a wildcard, if docs start whispering Jones is toast, 3 becomes real. Since the end of last season I felt Jones would get a shot if healthy and the Giants would draft a QB.
Still feel that way.
I don't see Daboll(or schoen for that matter) as that type of guy who's going to be coaching for his job. In fact, in reality the way for an NFL head coach to keep their job is to win football games and the way to win football games is to get good players. So if I'm worried about my job don't give me some rookie who might take 2-3 years to get up to speed get me an impact player who can help me win right now.
If you guys weren't so caught up in your narrative of the day you might see something beyond your noses!
Imagine Lock comes out of the gate poorly and they lose a few games, do they go to the rookie or to Jones?
Imagine the rookie comes out of the gate poorly, do they go to Jones or let the rookie work through growing pains?
Daboll has to juggle trying to win and developing a rookie who is the presumptive future. Do you blow a year for the team like Coughlin did in '04, or do you blow a year of development for the rookie?
I've seen Daniel Jones be a bottom-tier NFL QB for years. Is that far enough beyond my nose for you?
Seems like you need to familiarize yourself with the definition of "straw man."
That's the Jones experience. He's too unreliable, but he convinces everyone.
I don't think anyone would bet on Jones currently, but they bet on Jones after 2022.
I think the better question is, are the Giants better in 2024 with Jones and one of the WRs or a rookie QB no #2 pick and no #1 next year or a Rookie QB and keep the picks.
I personally think you have to swallow the Jones pill this year. Get the WR, keep your picks. If Jones gets hurt again they have the excuse again that he is injured and still have picks to get a QB next year and his salary is at least managable.
Most people want to replace Jones with a rookie QB but dont say if they would be OK with any of the 4. They dont say how much they are willing to trade to get the QB or if they make that trade how they are going to improve the roster with a tight cap and no premium picks? Every QB needs a star player, all of the top 10 QBs have at least one other player and some have 2 or 3. The players on the Giants roster currently do not meet that criteria. Look at every playoff team, they all have at least 1 stud playmaker.
Getting the 4th QB at 6 is OK but I am against trading up. The WR is a much better option than trading up.
The question in this thread, is if you were Daboll and you could influence management, what choice do you think would best preserve your job.
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And it's why I think a lot of BBI is going to be stunned when they see the package given to move up for Maye.
Given that Schoen SI interview, I am back on the "They're keeping Jones because they believe in him" side of the fence this week = )
The biggest takeaway from those quotes for me were that he doesn't expect to be picking that high again. QB.
I agree, no injury, then I would. I get that it's been 5 years, but can anyone honestly say they've ever had an average offensive line since he's been here? There just aren't many QB's who can succeed with a shitty offensive line.
The question in this thread, is if you were Daboll and you could influence management, what choice do you think would best preserve your job.
Youre assuming the 4th QB available is one the Giants want. If Im Mara, I ask the question in what order would you put the QBs? And of the 4 which guy do you not want? I am pretty confident that there is no option to get the 1st 3, so we are stuck with the QB thats left. If that QB is the guy the coach didnt want then there is no discussion.
4 QB will get drafted in the top 10 but that doesnt mean 4 should be drafted in the top 10. Plus, any deal that includes next years #1 would be off the table for me. The Giants are going to have to rework some contracts already to be able to operate this season. Cutting Jones saves nothing. Next year they are on the hook for at least $22 Mil on Jones. I'd say option 3 is out.
For me Id roll with Jones this year, get the WR and hope that the OL is improved. There is very little wiggle room in either option. If the rookie QB isnt very good Daboll will be fired probably along with Schoen. They both endored Jones after 2022.
+1
But, if they love a QB and he's there at #6, it could also work in his favor as expectations tend to lower with a rookie QB being indoctrinated to the NFL level.
If the slate stays muddy that is the biggest danger to Daboll. But if you clean the slate as much as possible and wash that sucker then you have a case to show what you can do with your vision, and hence the best argument for more time.
This team will not be good in 2024, no matter what Daboll does. 5-7 wins is the likely win total. Since we know that going in, neither Schoen nor Daboll will be fired if this is the result having cut DJ. So start Lock, have Cutlets back him up and then add a quarterback from the 2024 draft. And begin the annual process of adding in and rotating out a quarterback from the room every year until the "top five elite guy" is finally in place.
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In comment 16464543 UConn4523 said:
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if he didn’t get injured, but he did so this seems like an obvious answer - 2 or 3 since I see them as pretty much the same thing and would be up to Schoen more IMO on which route to take.
Schoen presumably has the final say, but I am wondering what you endorse if you were the head coach.
I don’t think it matters unless the options are #2 is no QB at 6 (round 2 or later) and #3 is QB at 6.
Right.
Obviously they want new franchise QB
But trading away too much to get a guy you are not 100% sold on is not the way to go.
The question in this thread, is if you were Daboll and you could influence management, what choice do you think would best preserve your job.
Youre assuming the 4th QB available is one the Giants want. If Im Mara, I ask the question in what order would you put the QBs? And of the 4 which guy do you not want? I am pretty confident that there is no option to get the 1st 3, so we are stuck with the QB thats left. If that QB is the guy the coach didnt want then there is no discussion.
I think you're assuming a lot of things I am not asking.
This isn't a discussion about draft strategy and who will/won't be available.
Take a step back, and put yourself in Daboll's shoes today. Presumably you have some influence over what Schoen does or tries to do. Your motive is to keep your job after the 2024 season. Would you be pushing for him to:
1) Stick with Jones and not draft a quarterback high
2) Draft a quarterback high and keep Jones
3) Draft a quarterback high and not keep Jones
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But if this is how Dabol is thinking, maybe he is counting on Lock (not DJ) and additional roster improvements to get the team to 8/9 wins.
Maybe you are confused on what the difference between a hypothetical and speculation is?
If you were in his shoes, what would option would you pick? That's the hypothetical posed in the thread starter.
Gotcha, then I think the theory underlying your hypothetical and options is faulty. I see no scenario where Dabol relies on DJ in any form or combination, which brings me back to my original response to your post.
If I'm fighting for my job, I want to do it my way with my guys.
I don't think anyone would bet on Jones currently, but they bet on Jones after 2022.
I think the better question is, are the Giants better in 2024 with Jones and one of the WRs or a rookie QB no #2 pick and no #1 next year or a Rookie QB and keep the picks.
I personally think you have to swallow the Jones pill this year. Get the WR, keep your picks. If Jones gets hurt again they have the excuse again that he is injured and still have picks to get a QB next year and his salary is at least managable.
Most people want to replace Jones with a rookie QB but dont say if they would be OK with any of the 4. They dont say how much they are willing to trade to get the QB or if they make that trade how they are going to improve the roster with a tight cap and no premium picks? Every QB needs a star player, all of the top 10 QBs have at least one other player and some have 2 or 3. The players on the Giants roster currently do not meet that criteria. Look at every playoff team, they all have at least 1 stud playmaker.
Getting the 4th QB at 6 is OK but I am against trading up. The WR is a much better option than trading up.
Let's say the take a WR and run with Jones/Lock and go 4-13
Daboll fired. Jones cut. Rookie QB drafted April 2025 and is going to be starting immediately with a new HC. 2025 probably has a lot of growing pains, meaning the first 2 years of that WRs rookie contract are wasted, with the 5YO decision looming after 2026.
Let's say the take a WR and run with Jones/Lock and go 4-13
Daboll fired. Jones cut. Rookie QB drafted April 2025 and is going to be starting immediately with a new HC. 2025 probably has a lot of growing pains, meaning the first 2 years of that WRs rookie contract are wasted, with the 5YO decision looming after 2026.
Ok, let's take QB 4 or 5. That QB sits because he has bad footwork or throwing technique issues or is a little slow reading NFL defenses. (reasonable level of growing pains)
They go 4-13? Is Daboll still fired?
What is the difference except they have a QB of questionable ability (unproven)?
Maybe you are confused on what the difference between a hypothetical and speculation is?
If you were in his shoes, what would option would you pick? That's the hypothetical posed in the thread starter.
Gotcha, then I think the theory underlying your hypothetical and options is faulty. I see no scenario where Dabol relies on DJ in any form or combination, which brings me back to my original response to your post.
So if you were Daboll and you were influencing management to make a decision at quarterback to preserve your job -- you would choose Drew Lock and roster improvements?
That's an unorthodox opinion.
They go 4-13? Is Daboll still fired?
What is the difference except they have a QB of questionable ability (unproven)?
In that scenario, isn't it likely Daboll goes to the rookie when the Giants are out of contention and starts a few games?
And given his reputation and track record in developing quarterbacks, isn't it reasonable ownership would be inclined to give Daboll an opportunity to develop the quarterback further?
He cannot be blamed for Jones failure or injury, and has fallback of rookie QB who likely will not be expected to immediately perform at a high level. So, based on the hypothetical proposed, that would be the safest path for Daboll to maximizing his potential for continued employment.
What do I think is in the best interests of the franchise? Get the QB you like this year; it’s a very good position at six to maneuver from. If he wins the competition coming out of camp and preseason, it’s his job; otherwise he lies in wait behind Jones or Lock until they deem he’s ready.
If the rookie or Lock starts the season, do you think they ever go back to Jones?
The red flags with Jones were visible at the end of 2019.
Surely you can't be serious...
If the rookie or Lock starts the season, do you think they ever go back to Jones?
Different question, assuming now this has nothing to do with maximizing his job retention potential.
If Lock starts the season and ‘fails’, would think they go to the rookie QB and stick it out with him - trial by fire.
If the rookie QB starts the season (you said Jones ‘wasn’t ready’) and fails or is injured, I think it’s Lock for the duration.
I guess my gut feeling is if Jones is not ready at the start of the season AND they have drafted a QB, then Jones will not take another snap as Giants QB
The red flags with Jones were visible at the end of 2019.
Herbert decided to stay at Oregon, unfortunately.
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I wasn't sold on Herbert so I didn't know that I would have drafted him at the time. But knowing that the Giants loved Herbert, it's amazing to me they didn't draft him.
The red flags with Jones were visible at the end of 2019.
Herbert decided to stay at Oregon, unfortunately.
I mean it's amazing they didn't draft him in 2020.