In the upcoming NFL draft, the Los Angeles Rams are scheduled to make their first first-round pick since 2016, when they used the No. 1 overall pick on Jared Goff.
people this on every "can't trade up we need the picks" thread.
obviously there are more than just 1st round picks, but they didn't have a great track record in the draft overall until this past draft where they crushed it.
also wouldn’t have a first round pick this year or next if they had been able to trade for Brian Burns. They offered Carolina first round picks this year and next and a second round pick next year for Burns. They also offered second, third, and fifth-round picks along with running back Cam Akers to Carolina for Christian McCaffrey.
Of course, they also drafted Byron Young, Kobe Turner, Davis Allen, and Puka Nacua in the third and fifth rounds last year. If you can draft that well from the third round through day three, then maybe you are smart to trade your first and second rounds picks most years.
and as much as i think there are some things they do that can be copied (like comp picks and aggressive trades for prime aged vets...like lw/burns) there is 1 thing that only after this year am i able to fully appreciate, sean mcvay is the most valuable person in the NFL, including any player.
last year people forget they entered the year with Kupp injured, an even more questionable OL than NYG protecting Stafford off an IR season, and many thinking they may be tanking for Caleb. then after a lifeless 0-3 preseason, without kupp, and as a big underdog they went up to seattle, scored 30 points even with their kicker missing 2, and beat them down week 1 (see thread linked below).
if my math is correct here - 28/34 players who ended up playing the most snaps for them last year were either on rookie deals or minimum contracts, including everyone on defense except Donald. the 6 others were kupp (injured), stafford (coming off IR), higbee, 2 OL, and Donald.
this what excellent coaching/drafting/developing looks like.
this current giant roster that everyone says stinks by contrast has 11/22 starters on veteran contracts above the minimum - plus 3 first round picks starting the Rams didnt have.
at age 38 with multiple decades left to keep doing his thing i dont think there is no single player in the NFL worth more than Sean McVay. are rams biggest week 1 surprise? - ( New Window )
and as much as i think there are some things they do that can be copied (like comp picks and aggressive trades for prime aged vets...like lw/burns) there is 1 thing that only after this year am i able to fully appreciate, sean mcvay is the most valuable person in the NFL, including any player.
last year people forget they entered the year with Kupp injured, an even more questionable OL than NYG protecting Stafford off an IR season, and many thinking they may be tanking for Caleb. then after a lifeless 0-3 preseason, without kupp, and as a big underdog they went up to seattle, scored 30 points even with their kicker missing 2, and beat them down week 1 (see thread linked below).
if my math is correct here - 28/34 players who ended up playing the most snaps for them last year were either on rookie deals or minimum contracts, including everyone on defense except Donald. the 6 others were kupp (injured), stafford (coming off IR), higbee, 2 OL, and Donald.
this what excellent coaching/drafting/developing looks like.
this current giant roster that everyone says stinks by contrast has 11/22 starters on veteran contracts above the minimum - plus 3 first round picks starting the Rams didnt have.
at age 38 with multiple decades left to keep doing his thing i dont think there is no single player in the NFL worth more than Sean McVay. are rams biggest week 1 surprise? - ( New Window )
Sean McVay is awesome but he's not as valuable as a top QB. And certainly not close in value to Mahomes.
The objective is to build a Super Bowl champion. The goal isn't to hoarde picks.
the Rams DO hoard picks, comp picks. they have had the maximum of +4 comp picks each of the last 3 drafts - and then they use them well. Puka Nacua was a 5th round comp pick in 2023 thanks to the LA Chargers signined sebastian joseph-day in 2022.
they made 14 draft picks last year and added 4 starters.
they made 8 draft picks in 2022 and added 3.
they made 9 draft picks in 2021 and added 4.
they made 9 draft picks in 2000 and added 3.
their roster is built on drafting/developing depth. and then they've used first round picks to add stars.
RE: RE: i've tried to explain the rams unique success for years
and as much as i think there are some things they do that can be copied (like comp picks and aggressive trades for prime aged vets...like lw/burns) there is 1 thing that only after this year am i able to fully appreciate, sean mcvay is the most valuable person in the NFL, including any player.
last year people forget they entered the year with Kupp injured, an even more questionable OL than NYG protecting Stafford off an IR season, and many thinking they may be tanking for Caleb. then after a lifeless 0-3 preseason, without kupp, and as a big underdog they went up to seattle, scored 30 points even with their kicker missing 2, and beat them down week 1 (see thread linked below).
if my math is correct here - 28/34 players who ended up playing the most snaps for them last year were either on rookie deals or minimum contracts, including everyone on defense except Donald. the 6 others were kupp (injured), stafford (coming off IR), higbee, 2 OL, and Donald.
this what excellent coaching/drafting/developing looks like.
this current giant roster that everyone says stinks by contrast has 11/22 starters on veteran contracts above the minimum - plus 3 first round picks starting the Rams didnt have.
at age 38 with multiple decades left to keep doing his thing i dont think there is no single player in the NFL worth more than Sean McVay. are rams biggest week 1 surprise? - ( New Window )
Sean McVay is awesome but he's not as valuable as a top QB. And certainly not close in value to Mahomes.
in 10 years patrick mahomes is 38.
in 10 years sean mcvay is still 1 year younger than brian daboll.
2023 draft and draw the conclusion the Rams just hit draft picks all over the draft board.
but reality is since their last year with a 1st round pick (2016) until 2023 they have made 53 draft picks and yielded just a handful of consistent starters (maybe 5-7) so they have probably a 10-15% hit rate (so for every 100 picks they make they get between 10 and 15 players who start) and that doesn't include qualitative analysis where they have gotten some quality (like Kupp and Kyren Williams) but that doesn't make them draft savants in fact it's not a scalable strategy unless they have more drafts like 2023 which is unlikely and against their track record.
2023 draft and draw the conclusion the Rams just hit draft picks all over the draft board.
but reality is since their last year with a 1st round pick (2016) until 2023 they have made 53 draft picks and yielded just a handful of consistent starters (maybe 5-7) so they have probably a 10-15% hit rate (so for every 100 picks they make they get between 10 and 15 players who start) and that doesn't include qualitative analysis where they have gotten some quality (like Kupp and Kyren Williams) but that doesn't make them draft savants in fact it's not a scalable strategy unless they have more drafts like 2023 which is unlikely and against their track record.
5-7 starters is just not correct. just in the super year of 2021 they had 8 starters drafted by mcvay (highlighted blue), plus another 3 they drafted before mcvay (donald, havenstein, higbee).
the rookie class from 2023 is also not a 1 year occurrence - since 2011 the rams have gotten the 2nd most snaps out of their draft picks.
if more snaps played is not your preferred metric of grading drafts since after all anyone can play snaps even if they stink, they also have the 4th most drafted players extended over that period of time and 9th most players drafted who got 2nd contracts whether from them or another team (which then lead to the comp picks).
they have been among the best drafting and developing teams in the NFL - dallas, baltimore, sf, pit, cincy - except unlike those teams they've somehow managed to do it without first round picks. https://overthecap.com/rookie-class-evaluation - ( New Window )
to pro-football-reference. if you mean the 2021 draft?
the 2021 draft is below and they have a stat for "became a primary starter" = ST.
And that is purealy quantitative. When people start counting Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek and even Darrell Henderson as starters without applying intelligence to a discussion there isn't much to discuss really. If you are going to make a case the Rams are a great drafting team because Van Jefferson was drafted by them or Ben Skowronek was or Darrell Henderson was then you win - whatever your point is you win, lol. i want no part in that discussion and I stand by my comments but will not engage at all - have a great day and add all the charts and graphs you want.
Hard to argue with their process... trade picks for proven top players
...then let the players leave in FA so you get a lot of comp picks.
Rinse and repeat.
If you have great scouts and internal evaluation, you can build up a great team with midrounders. And the Rams consistently get extra 3rd and 4th rounders.
ST seems to say that Puka and Kyren aren't primary starters
even though the both made the pro bowl last year so not sure id use that as the only counter point to the fact that in reality a bunch of players the rams drafted - darrell henderson and van jefferson included whatever you think of them - started and won a lot of games for them.
another reason i may not use that metric if i'd said this:
but reality is since their last year with a 1st round pick (2016) until 2023 they have made 53 draft picks and yielded just a handful of consistent starters (maybe 5-7)
is because I count 18 primary starters drafted since McVay became head coach, 13 of them primary starters for 2 or more seasons drafted between 17-20. that seems like more than 5-7 and it's not even counting kyren, puka, young, avila, jones, turner who are starters just from their last 3 drafts.
famously did this in the 70's. Their highest pick between 72 and 79 was 4th round. They went to a SB in 72 and remained contenders thru the decade.
The wheels finally came off in 1980 but they bounced back quickly under Gibbs and were SB champs by 1982 despite so few picks for so long.
Great example. I was also thinking of Allen. I didn't know that between 72 and 79 their highest draft pick was in the fourth round. Wow.
Also, that same Washington franchise then resumed trading first round picks throughout the 80s, under Gibbs. Off the tip of my head they did so at least 2-3 times (Wilber Marshall x2 picks, Gerald Riggs and byner x2 picks)
What you guys are missing is the percentage of picks..
that turn out to be contributors which allows you to pass on high cost free agents, and not HAVE TO sign a veteran to a rich contract because you have other options on your bench.
The Giants found themselves in a situation where the top picks did not produce, and many of the high contract free agents didnt either. You and up with a shitty team and a bad cap situation.
people this on every "can't trade up we need the picks" thread.
obviously there are more than just 1st round picks, but they didn't have a great track record in the draft overall until this past draft where they crushed it.
PJ, this is completely different than trading up for an unknown rookie. They spend their picks on proven vets. They also took a huge hit with the cap because of it.
people this on every "can't trade up we need the picks" thread.
obviously there are more than just 1st round picks, but they didn't have a great track record in the draft overall until this past draft where they crushed it.
PJ, this is completely different than trading up for an unknown rookie. They spend their picks on proven vets. They also took a huge hit with the cap because of it.
The Rams have done both this "philosophy" began when they traded away future 1sts for Goff. and then doubled down on it including Goff in the trade for Stafford (with more 1sts) - so they two have executed two very different philosophies.
but my point is if you have conviction on the player get the player. picks have more risk. So many people on here get depressed "the Giants don't have their full complement of picks" and it's the 6th or 7th they don't have. lol.
obviously there are more than just 1st round picks, but they didn't have a great track record in the draft overall until this past draft where they crushed it.
We have failed in this aspect for over a decade.
Of course, they also drafted Byron Young, Kobe Turner, Davis Allen, and Puka Nacua in the third and fifth rounds last year. If you can draft that well from the third round through day three, then maybe you are smart to trade your first and second rounds picks most years.
The wheels finally came off in 1980 but they bounced back quickly under Gibbs and were SB champs by 1982 despite so few picks for so long.
last year people forget they entered the year with Kupp injured, an even more questionable OL than NYG protecting Stafford off an IR season, and many thinking they may be tanking for Caleb. then after a lifeless 0-3 preseason, without kupp, and as a big underdog they went up to seattle, scored 30 points even with their kicker missing 2, and beat them down week 1 (see thread linked below).
if my math is correct here - 28/34 players who ended up playing the most snaps for them last year were either on rookie deals or minimum contracts, including everyone on defense except Donald. the 6 others were kupp (injured), stafford (coming off IR), higbee, 2 OL, and Donald.
this what excellent coaching/drafting/developing looks like.
this current giant roster that everyone says stinks by contrast has 11/22 starters on veteran contracts above the minimum - plus 3 first round picks starting the Rams didnt have.
at age 38 with multiple decades left to keep doing his thing i dont think there is no single player in the NFL worth more than Sean McVay.
are rams biggest week 1 surprise? - ( New Window )
last year people forget they entered the year with Kupp injured, an even more questionable OL than NYG protecting Stafford off an IR season, and many thinking they may be tanking for Caleb. then after a lifeless 0-3 preseason, without kupp, and as a big underdog they went up to seattle, scored 30 points even with their kicker missing 2, and beat them down week 1 (see thread linked below).
if my math is correct here - 28/34 players who ended up playing the most snaps for them last year were either on rookie deals or minimum contracts, including everyone on defense except Donald. the 6 others were kupp (injured), stafford (coming off IR), higbee, 2 OL, and Donald.
this what excellent coaching/drafting/developing looks like.
this current giant roster that everyone says stinks by contrast has 11/22 starters on veteran contracts above the minimum - plus 3 first round picks starting the Rams didnt have.
at age 38 with multiple decades left to keep doing his thing i dont think there is no single player in the NFL worth more than Sean McVay. are rams biggest week 1 surprise? - ( New Window )
Sean McVay is awesome but he's not as valuable as a top QB. And certainly not close in value to Mahomes.
They followed a certain strategy for a while that suited their situation.
But they didn't draw the conclusion that draft picks aren't important (as accumulating 14 picks for one draft amply demonstrates).
the Rams DO hoard picks, comp picks. they have had the maximum of +4 comp picks each of the last 3 drafts - and then they use them well. Puka Nacua was a 5th round comp pick in 2023 thanks to the LA Chargers signined sebastian joseph-day in 2022.
they made 14 draft picks last year and added 4 starters.
they made 8 draft picks in 2022 and added 3.
they made 9 draft picks in 2021 and added 4.
they made 9 draft picks in 2000 and added 3.
their roster is built on drafting/developing depth. and then they've used first round picks to add stars.
Quote:
and as much as i think there are some things they do that can be copied (like comp picks and aggressive trades for prime aged vets...like lw/burns) there is 1 thing that only after this year am i able to fully appreciate, sean mcvay is the most valuable person in the NFL, including any player.
last year people forget they entered the year with Kupp injured, an even more questionable OL than NYG protecting Stafford off an IR season, and many thinking they may be tanking for Caleb. then after a lifeless 0-3 preseason, without kupp, and as a big underdog they went up to seattle, scored 30 points even with their kicker missing 2, and beat them down week 1 (see thread linked below).
if my math is correct here - 28/34 players who ended up playing the most snaps for them last year were either on rookie deals or minimum contracts, including everyone on defense except Donald. the 6 others were kupp (injured), stafford (coming off IR), higbee, 2 OL, and Donald.
this what excellent coaching/drafting/developing looks like.
this current giant roster that everyone says stinks by contrast has 11/22 starters on veteran contracts above the minimum - plus 3 first round picks starting the Rams didnt have.
at age 38 with multiple decades left to keep doing his thing i dont think there is no single player in the NFL worth more than Sean McVay. are rams biggest week 1 surprise? - ( New Window )
Sean McVay is awesome but he's not as valuable as a top QB. And certainly not close in value to Mahomes.
in 10 years patrick mahomes is 38.
in 10 years sean mcvay is still 1 year younger than brian daboll.
but reality is since their last year with a 1st round pick (2016) until 2023 they have made 53 draft picks and yielded just a handful of consistent starters (maybe 5-7) so they have probably a 10-15% hit rate (so for every 100 picks they make they get between 10 and 15 players who start) and that doesn't include qualitative analysis where they have gotten some quality (like Kupp and Kyren Williams) but that doesn't make them draft savants in fact it's not a scalable strategy unless they have more drafts like 2023 which is unlikely and against their track record.
The wheels finally came off in 1980 but they bounced back quickly under Gibbs and were SB champs by 1982 despite so few picks for so long.
Great example. I was also thinking of Allen. I didn't know that between 72 and 79 their highest draft pick was in the fourth round. Wow.
but reality is since their last year with a 1st round pick (2016) until 2023 they have made 53 draft picks and yielded just a handful of consistent starters (maybe 5-7) so they have probably a 10-15% hit rate (so for every 100 picks they make they get between 10 and 15 players who start) and that doesn't include qualitative analysis where they have gotten some quality (like Kupp and Kyren Williams) but that doesn't make them draft savants in fact it's not a scalable strategy unless they have more drafts like 2023 which is unlikely and against their track record.
5-7 starters is just not correct. just in the super year of 2021 they had 8 starters drafted by mcvay (highlighted blue), plus another 3 they drafted before mcvay (donald, havenstein, higbee).
the rookie class from 2023 is also not a 1 year occurrence - since 2011 the rams have gotten the 2nd most snaps out of their draft picks.
if more snaps played is not your preferred metric of grading drafts since after all anyone can play snaps even if they stink, they also have the 4th most drafted players extended over that period of time and 9th most players drafted who got 2nd contracts whether from them or another team (which then lead to the comp picks).
they have been among the best drafting and developing teams in the NFL - dallas, baltimore, sf, pit, cincy - except unlike those teams they've somehow managed to do it without first round picks.
https://overthecap.com/rookie-class-evaluation - ( New Window )
the 2021 draft is below and they have a stat for "became a primary starter" = ST.
And that is purealy quantitative. When people start counting Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek and even Darrell Henderson as starters without applying intelligence to a discussion there isn't much to discuss really. If you are going to make a case the Rams are a great drafting team because Van Jefferson was drafted by them or Ben Skowronek was or Darrell Henderson was then you win - whatever your point is you win, lol. i want no part in that discussion and I stand by my comments but will not engage at all - have a great day and add all the charts and graphs you want.
Rinse and repeat.
If you have great scouts and internal evaluation, you can build up a great team with midrounders. And the Rams consistently get extra 3rd and 4th rounders.
another reason i may not use that metric if i'd said this:
In comment 16468278 pjcas18 said:
but reality is since their last year with a 1st round pick (2016) until 2023 they have made 53 draft picks and yielded just a handful of consistent starters (maybe 5-7)
is because I count 18 primary starters drafted since McVay became head coach, 13 of them primary starters for 2 or more seasons drafted between 17-20. that seems like more than 5-7 and it's not even counting kyren, puka, young, avila, jones, turner who are starters just from their last 3 drafts.
Quote:
famously did this in the 70's. Their highest pick between 72 and 79 was 4th round. They went to a SB in 72 and remained contenders thru the decade.
The wheels finally came off in 1980 but they bounced back quickly under Gibbs and were SB champs by 1982 despite so few picks for so long.
Great example. I was also thinking of Allen. I didn't know that between 72 and 79 their highest draft pick was in the fourth round. Wow.
Also, that same Washington franchise then resumed trading first round picks throughout the 80s, under Gibbs. Off the tip of my head they did so at least 2-3 times (Wilber Marshall x2 picks, Gerald Riggs and byner x2 picks)
The Giants found themselves in a situation where the top picks did not produce, and many of the high contract free agents didnt either. You and up with a shitty team and a bad cap situation.
obviously there are more than just 1st round picks, but they didn't have a great track record in the draft overall until this past draft where they crushed it.
PJ, this is completely different than trading up for an unknown rookie. They spend their picks on proven vets. They also took a huge hit with the cap because of it.
Quote:
people this on every "can't trade up we need the picks" thread.
obviously there are more than just 1st round picks, but they didn't have a great track record in the draft overall until this past draft where they crushed it.
PJ, this is completely different than trading up for an unknown rookie. They spend their picks on proven vets. They also took a huge hit with the cap because of it.
The Rams have done both this "philosophy" began when they traded away future 1sts for Goff. and then doubled down on it including Goff in the trade for Stafford (with more 1sts) - so they two have executed two very different philosophies.
but my point is if you have conviction on the player get the player. picks have more risk. So many people on here get depressed "the Giants don't have their full complement of picks" and it's the 6th or 7th they don't have. lol.