Just how big of a "need" is QB?

realizes QB is a huge need, whether because you think Jones is ineffective, or simply because of his injuries.

Uh. A big fucking one.

We have been living in QB hell for a decade (includes Eli's down years). It is time for some hope!!!!!!!!

It's a huge issue. Most of us think it's likely Schoen will cut Jones after this season. Jones will have to really play well and win to justify the cap hit he'd be getting in 2025. Lock will be a UFA in 2025. DeVito was benched for poor play and is a UDFA,

I cringe when I see mocks not taking a QB. I'd lose all confidence in this regime if that were the case.

Logic says they are taking a real serious look at McCarthy for that reason. Now project out the 2025 QBs, it's not promising as of today.

I think if NE is at all open to trading down, Schoen will do it.

roster are currently NFL ready to be a legit QB1.

That may be the case after the draft as well even if they draft a QB high.

That's how much of a need QB is

be overestimated.

You have an overpaid, injury prone starter, who is likely more suited for a backup, wildcat role
you have a journeyman JAG as backup
you have a charismatic practice squad guy forced into action due to injury who is likely out of the NFL before his commercials stop airing

it's the most important position on the field and there is no certainty/future for it on the roster.

Still doesn't mean you should force the pick and if they don't get a QB this year but do get an elite WR or fill other needs it's ok too - maybe even better long term, but I don't see how it's possible to overestimate how big a need QB is for the Giants.

But the priority has to be getting a guy who you believe will lead you to championships. TBH, I really only see the top QBs doing that these days. That's why when we talk about QB being a need, I'm not on the same page as many. I think many here just want someone other than Jones. But to me, if the guy isn't someone who realistically doesn't project to the top 10 QBs in the league (or thereabouts), then I think we need to keep the search going. Finding a guy you can win with type isn't that difficult while we're looking.

Who is so often injured and when not injured won't throw the ball down the field. Also can't win with Drew Lock or Cutlets. If you want the Giants to actually win, we need an NFL level starting QB. Full stop.

A cost controlled decent QB is a need.....but maybe not as big as a true #1 WR.

And it all doesn't matter if the OL doesn't block.

In comment 16473184 UberAlias said:

Quote:

But the priority has to be getting a guy who you believe will lead you to championships. TBH, I really only see the top QBs doing that these days. That's why when we talk about QB being a need, I'm not on the same page as many. I think many here just want someone other than Jones. But to me, if the guy isn't someone who realistically doesn't project to the top 10 QBs in the league (or thereabouts), then I think we need to keep the search going. Finding a guy you can win with type isn't that difficult while we're looking.

I don't agree. The priority can be getting a better player who's cheap. Why does it have to be a Super Bowl caliber QB? Going to be waiting forever if that's the case. Then what happens when NYG goes 7-10 and are picking 12 next year and in a less desirable QB situation in what is likely to be a less talented class?

Upgrade the position with a cheap player who you hope can be a consistently top 12 QB in the league and then build from there. If not, try again.

You can keep working on trade up scenarios in May. The Giants QB needs don't turn on whether DiVito is an EFRA or under contract in 2025.

Because the goal is to win Superbowls. That's what every team should be building for. I'm not sure what else to say.

In comment 16473196 UberAlias said:

Quote:

Because the goal is to win Superbowls. That's what every team should be building for. I'm not sure what else to say.

I doubt any team drafts a QB in the first round and thinks "Meh, this guy can be ok. He won't win us any Superbowls, but he will likely keep me from getting fired."

They may end up with a guy who is just a decent QB and that can be ok. There are only 5-10 guys who are superstars at the position and every team won't have one. But when you draft, you are drafting potential and all of those guys have the potential to be very good.

.

I think that some of the press that are denying need for QB are intentionally carrying water for ownership and are not being objective.

In comment 16473188 George from PA said:

Quote:

A cost controlled decent QB is a need.....but maybe not as big as a true #1 WR. And it all doesn't matter if the OL doesn't block.

+1

In comment 16473189 Sean said:

Quote:

In comment 16473184 UberAlias said: Quote: But the priority has to be getting a guy who you believe will lead you to championships. TBH, I really only see the top QBs doing that these days. That's why when we talk about QB being a need, I'm not on the same page as many. I think many here just want someone other than Jones. But to me, if the guy isn't someone who realistically doesn't project to the top 10 QBs in the league (or thereabouts), then I think we need to keep the search going. Finding a guy you can win with type isn't that difficult while we're looking. I don't agree. The priority can be getting a better player who's cheap. Why does it have to be a Super Bowl caliber QB? Going to be waiting forever if that's the case. Then what happens when NYG goes 7-10 and are picking 12 next year and in a less desirable QB situation in what is likely to be a less talented class? Upgrade the position with a cheap player who you hope can be a consistently top 12 QB in the league and then build from there. If not, try again.

Sy's Rich Gannon comp for JJ is relevant for me here. Nobody thinks of RIch Gannon as an all-time QB, but with a solid team around him in the early 00s, he was great and led the Raiders to a Superbowl and two conference championships (and would've had a third without the tuck rule).

Tell that to the portion of the fan base who are advocating for just that. That post was literally responding to one.

And we have heard plenty of sentiment about QBs being "So and so is a guy you can win with". There are absolutely teams out there who reach for QBs in the first round who would have to exceed expectations to become the sort we see winning championships. What happen is they talk themselves into a guy because that's what happens when you act out of desperation.

Gannon planed in a different era of the game.

It has to be a guy you think has star quality or a guy you think has traits you can further develop. Investing in the wrong QB is also a big issue. With the status of Jones contract, you lose out on half of the rookie cap savings if you draft a qb this year. Plus that QB will most likely sit year 1. I’m not saying don’t take a QB, but a trade up makes no sense. We already have cap problems with Jones contract, so trading away low cost draft picks to get a QB hinders the team from getting better.

So how would you feel if we trade up for a QB and give away our #1 next year and that turns into the #1 pick? Or even a top 5 pick? So we gave away 2 top 10 picks for a guy that probably will play very little their 1st year and was the 4th QB in the draft. Or wait a year, Jones contract can be managed away with a much smaller cap hit. Most likely there will be a QB available of similar grade to any qb available to the Giants.

There is risk on both sides. Teams should invest in a QB in the draft every other year. So in a 3 qb system you have your starter, a guy you chose later in the draft 2 years ago that is now the backup and then a rookie to eventually take over as backup. The Giants have been chasing their tail, replacing coaches, bad drafting at almost every position (look at the 2021 draft, we have no starters going into their 4th year) and having no cap space because of bad drafts and poor FA signings. There is no long term plan for the Giants because they seem to draft for immediate need, filling holes instead of getting the best player available. Basically going into the draft hungry. You can see the holes we have and the players we brought in for visits. They line up pretty closely. WR, QB, CB. The past 2 years, we can see the Giants target the guys they bring in.

In comment 16473226 UberAlias said:

Quote:

Tell that to the portion of the fan base who are advocating for just that. That post was literally responding to one. And we have heard plenty of sentiment about QBs being "So and so is a guy you can win with". There are absolutely teams out there who reach for QBs in the first round who would have to exceed expectations to become the sort we see winning championships. What happen is they talk themselves into a guy because that's what happens when you act out of desperation.

Right now the Giants have one of the worst QB situations in the league. Next year it is likely they will only have Tommy DeVito under contract if he's still even here.

There are 6 solid QB prospects in this draft, 4 of which are being talked about in the top 10. That still isn't enough to take QB? I ultimately agree with Mike that a team drafts someone because they think he can be part of a SB winner. But, how many QBs are in that tier?

You can't just ignore the position until the perfect prospect comes along.

You use the word “middling” and “sub-par”

We arent in the zip code of either

We are the absolute bottom of the barrel

During Jones time here

We have the third worst record in NFL

We have the second lowest PPG & Pts scored in NFL

We have the third lowest Pass TDs in NFL

We have the second lowest offensive yards & passing yards in NFL

Jones has won just 22 games in 5 seasons

I constantly see people on here refer to us as being “mediocre “ or what this OP did.

The sooner we realize we arent even close to that, the closer we are to changing it

I hope the team gets their QB this year. If it were me, I would fight extremely hard to get Drake Maye. The other QBs who might be in play I am less convinced of, but if the team has a legit conviction for one of them then they have to make their move and I am fully supportive.

But when you say things like 6 solid QB prospects in this draft, 4 of which are being talked about in the top 10 --I don't agree with you that in today's game solid QBs win championships and you also have to understand that "what's being talked about" is in the media, no teams looking to draft any of the QBs are talking. Also, different teams have different evaluations on the top 6. There are strong preferences in both directions. But NYG has to draft a player based on what their board says, not what they read in the media.

It's a more pressing need than every other roster need combined. Not only are the QBs very poor but there's a completely realistic possibility, if not a likelihood, that none of these QBs are on the roster when the new league year starts next March.

Some say you can't shop hungry but that horse is out of the barn. The Giants are starving for a QB because outside of paying Jones they've ignored the position, and paying Jones has obviously been a catastrophe.

If they don't draft a QB next week I take that as a sign they are all in on Jones, and my expectations will be for a $47M season from him in 2024. When that doesn't happen I'll be hoping both Schoen and Daboll are replaced with people who know what they're doing.

In comment 16473252 Go Terps said:

Quote:

It's a more pressing need than every other roster need combined. Not only are the QBs very poor but there's a completely realistic possibility, if not a likelihood, that none of these QBs are on the roster when the new league year starts next March. Some say you can't shop hungry but that horse is out of the barn. The Giants are starving for a QB because outside of paying Jones they've ignored the position, and paying Jones has obviously been a catastrophe. If they don't draft a QB next week I take that as a sign they are all in on Jones, and my expectations will be for a $47M season from him in 2024. When that doesn't happen I'll be hoping both Schoen and Daboll are replaced with people who know what they're doing.

This.

pff 4/1/24
NEW YORK GIANTS
Team Needs: WR, TE, S

Sharp Football Analysis 4/3/24
Defensive Back
Wide Receiver
Defensive Line

Draft Analyst Consensus Says This Position Is Giants' Biggest Need - si.com 2/8/24
According to a compilation of first-round draft projections by leading draft analysts, the consensus is the receiver.

sportsnaut 2/12/24
New York Giants draft needs 2024: WR, QB, RB, CB, S, LB

how critical a need QB is. We are in a prime position to get a QB in one of the best QB crops in decades, we don’t know when we will be in this position again. Even with a decent season from Jones, the Giants were able to win 9 games, which would push us out of range for a top QB next year.

Get one now.

In comment 16473252 Go Terps said:

Quote:

It's a more pressing need than every other roster need combined. Not only are the QBs very poor but there's a completely realistic possibility, if not a likelihood, that none of these QBs are on the roster when the new league year starts next March. Some say you can't shop hungry but that horse is out of the barn. The Giants are starving for a QB because outside of paying Jones they've ignored the position, and paying Jones has obviously been a catastrophe. If they don't draft a QB next week I take that as a sign they are all in on Jones, and my expectations will be for a $47M season from him in 2024. When that doesn't happen I'll be hoping both Schoen and Daboll are replaced with people who know what they're doing.

I don't think all those advocating to "just take a quarterback next year" realize there's a very real possibility that a bad season with Jones at the helm would cause a full reset.

Lots of it.

thing I will add to my post (saying it cannot be overestimated how big a need QB is) is that every QB crop is the best QB crop since...whenever until they're not.

Forcing a QB could be worse than deliberately not picking a QB (with a premium pick).

Forcing a QB is how you wind up in QB hell and eventually you get the back of the Browns or Jets jerseys depicting QB hell.

If the GM believes the QB is their guy they should be aggressive and get the QB. But some are simply not "gettable" like Caleb Williams for example, maybe even Jayden Daniels. Settling for "next best" is not a strategy.

I also think the wrong decision though should cost the GM their job. You can't miss on the most important position on the field and expect another shot at it.

Avoid QB hell......

In comment 16473180 Sean said:

Quote:

It's a huge issue. Most of us think it's likely Schoen will cut Jones after this season. Jones will have to really play well and win to justify the cap hit he'd be getting in 2025. Lock will be a UFA in 2025. DeVito was benched for poor play and is a UDFA, I cringe when I see mocks not taking a QB. I'd lose all confidence in this regime if that were the case. Logic says they are taking a real serious look at McCarthy for that reason. Now project out the 2025 QBs, it's not promising as of today. I think if NE is at all open to trading down, Schoen will do it.

Project out the 2025 QBs if McCarthy had stayed in school.

Some scouts would currently project him as the overall #1 pick in 2025. So taking a look at what might have been that 2025 overall #1, in this year's draft, not needing to have 2024's overall #1 pick, can make a lot of sense.

Yep. Sy said that in his review.

it is:

2022 saw daniel Jones with his most wins, most "consistent" season and it accounted for 15 TD Passes in 16 games played.. 15!

It saw a team have to play mistake FREE in order to win and needed mistakes by the other team to make sure we could win. Take a look:

Wk 1- we win 21-20 (by going for 2 late in the game and with Tenn missing a GW fg attempt.

wk2- we won by 3 but won the turnover battle 2-0. We averaged 3.8 yards per play. We kicked 4 field goals.. We were at home..

wk3- we lose to Dallas who was playing Cooper Rush at QB. Jones for the third straight week doesn't 200 yards passing.

wk4- we beat Chicago in a horrible game where Jones has less than 80 yards passing but runs for 68 and 2 TD's.. If we had played any other team this week, with that kind of poor production we lose. Chicago fumbled 3 times in that game and we still only won by 8 points..

I could go on and on but you see where things are at. We won some games WITH Daniel Jones but not because of him. Last year, when things were not perfect, we lost. Games that were close, the almost wins happened with Devito and Taylor at QB, again cementing the fact that even baseline competent play at QB will get you some wins or keep you in games. That means we can accomplish that with anyone- so why are we keeping a guy who we pay to WIN games just be a guy who produces like an UDFA QB???

We need a QB to build to around. Doesn't mean he will be Mahomes etc but we can't keep rolling out the guy who just isn't it and expect that if we build everything else we will be fine.. Doesn't work that way.. The 49ers found Purdy but that was more by accident than plan- they had Jimmy G (who is better than Jones BTW) adn went after their guy in Lance. Lance didn't workout but the 49ers already had all of their other pieces that they were using with Jimmy G and when Lance failed, they put in Purdy our of necessity and it all worked..

I don't think Purdy to the Giants would have worked out..You can have that "guy" when you have all of the other pieces. You don't get that "guy" and then try to add pieces, he won't make it the point of true development. He will never be protected enough to do that.

When you are building up you need your center piece, when you are just remodeling you can have a more limited center point as all the othe3r areas over come his limitations..

We are rebuilding not remodling..

you're not going to win a Super Bowl. So since the goal every year should be to win the Super Bowl, we need a QB rather badly.

I really don't want to trade down, but if we whiff on the "big 4" QBs, or perhaps just don't like the one that falls, we need to have a serious discussion about whether or not trading down and trying to acquire a 2025 #1 is the best long term move.

If we don't get a QB this year, there needs to be a plan in place to get one in 2025 when we can get out of Jones' contract.

You can't win without smart, solid, impactful, consistent quality QB play.

Yes we don't want a QB picked just for sake of "take any guy" but the dial is done on Jones longer term. Yes - we've added Lock too as a lotto ticket for short term.

Even if its the 4th QB in the draft, if we feel a guy is smart, talented, and worth a shot to try and develop, take him.

If they leave, these two are completely replaceable and irrelevant.

Jones is the problem and the reason the need is big

In comment 16473184 UberAlias said:

Quote:

But the priority has to be getting a guy who you believe will lead you to championships. TBH, I really only see the top QBs doing that these days. That's why when we talk about QB being a need, I'm not on the same page as many. I think many here just want someone other than Jones. But to me, if the guy isn't someone who realistically doesn't project to the top 10 QBs in the league (or thereabouts), then I think we need to keep the search going. Finding a guy you can win with type isn't that difficult while we're looking.

+1

Regardless of the Brock Purdy argument - it's a cap issue.
Average QBs get $30-40 mil/year.
Purdy will get more than that on his next contract.
You need an elite guy
1- Because it's the most important position in sports
2- You have to pay elite money to keep him more than 4-5 years

It's as big of need as it gets, but merely subbing in a QB to get Jones out of there isn't good enough either.

They're there because they haven't been drafting any.

Drafting a QB "you can win a championship with" isn't a thing. How do you know before the guy has played an NFL game?

In comment 16473232 Rudy5757 said:

Quote:

There is no long term plan for the Giants because they seem to draft for immediate need, filling holes instead of getting the best player available. Basically going into the draft hungry. You can see the holes we have and the players we brought in for visits. They line up pretty closely. WR, QB, CB. The past 2 years, we can see the Giants target the guys they bring in.

It drives me fookin nuts if I allow it. They run the team like a regular fan would. See hole plug hole, continue to suck and spin wheels going nowhere.

Of course, we may not be able to get one this year and have to pick other positions instead.

They are building towards nothing. There is nothing that comes of that. It's just wasting time and counting down until March 2025 for FA and April 2025 for the draft.

As a fan, I want to feel like something is being built. To do that, you need to bring in a QB. Anything other than that is a non starter for me.

Watching Daniel Jones hand it off to Devin Singletary and checking down is a waste of time and an insult to fans.

In comment 16473345 Go Terps said:

Quote:

They're there because they haven't been drafting any. Drafting a QB "you can win a championship with" isn't a thing. How do you know before the guy has played an NFL game?

Got to be able to scout and judge pedigree. This has become a lost art in the modern NFL. Tenures are too short for coaches and front offices, too much trying to win now with bad rosters, etc.

in the first round. Plenty of the 6 QBs who end up likely getting picked in the first round this year will be JAGs or worse, but that is not what teams are aiming for. If they think a guy's ceiling is "Can win 10 games with a really good team around him" he is going to be picked in later rounds.

We all have no idea how the Giants have these guys rated, but we will know next week if they draft a guy in the first that they see him as a guy who can win superbowls for them. If they take a flyer on a guy in round 3, they probably see him as a guy to compete to start down the road while they keep searching for their long term answer.

What I do not expect to happen is the Giants take a guy in the first because he will likely be a better option than Daniel Jones. You pick based on the player, not the guy he is replacing.

QB is a need that has to be filled. Stop thinking about it as Jones is a guy who needs to be upgraded.

The New York Giants need for a QB is among the biggest needs any team has in the NFL. It's a monster need. And the fans know it. The team knows it. The league knows it. The Giants have not been serious about doing whatever it takes to upgrade the position in many years, and consequently we have been playing with backup-level QB play since 2017-ish.

Daboll squeezes some wins out of the group and they go 7-10. They pick 12. And we'll hear the same crap about no QB being worth it. Go watch Schoen then spending $50M on Dak out of desperation.

As Terps says, they'll only be hungrier next year.

In comment 16473179 crooza172 said:

Quote:

We have been living in QB hell for a decade (includes Eli's down years). It is time for some hope!!!!!!!!

I agree huge need, but still you don't force it if it's not there (especially at 6). This team is void so much talent almost everywhere except the DL. On offense, the weapons are bottom-tier. Compared to Dallas/Philly its a joke.
Slayton is our WR1 right now and Singletary is not scaring anyone with our OL. We are in serious need of fire-power and top-end talent on offense. No QB will succeed with those weapons. On D, we need depth at DT, another good/solid corner, and probably a starting safety.

We need to continually build this team almost everywhere including QB. I think if your not getting your QB at 6, then you have RD2'2024 through next draft to land your guy without question (although not sure they have that leash pending on how this year goes). I'd rather have a roster in place that can support the growth of a young QB. I don't see it yet.

The "need" is more about having the opportunity to draft an incredibly talented guy, who is a better prospect than Jones.

Do they absolutely "need" to just draft any QB? No. They should take best player available and not overdraft.

But a few of these QBs should be special. And they'll do what they can to get one.

I just want to see him get a shot early in the season, but that isn’t likely to happen if Jones is ready to start the season.

In comment 16473174 Mike from Ohio said:

Quote:

realizes QB is a huge need, whether because you think Jones is ineffective, or simply because of his injuries.

+1

For example - almost nobody is talking about the possibility of Jones playing as good or better than his 2022 season.

If that happens, which it could, Giants won't be able to draft a QB in 2025 without a significant trade up.

That's why NOW it would be imperative to try like hell to get someone like Drake Maye, who could likely use a redshirt year anyway.

If they stand pat and take the receiver or let's say, a lesser QB prospect in round 2 or 3, the QB situation gets even murkier.

Taking a QB just to take one is how bad teams stay bad.

Scout, stick to your board, get your targets, and move along.

In comment 16473368 Sean said:

Quote:

Daboll squeezes some wins out of the group and they go 7-10. They pick 12. And we'll hear the same crap about no QB being worth it. Go watch Schoen then spending $50M on Dak out of desperation. As Terps says, they'll only be hungrier next year.

Yup - Picking 6 in a historically strong QB draft.
AND - biggest team need by far....
If not now, when?

In comment 16473188 George from PA said:

Quote:

A cost controlled decent QB is a need.....but maybe not as big as a true #1 WR. And it all doesn't matter if the OL doesn't block.

Of course it matters if the OL can block. Even our 2-time SB winning QB Eli struggled behind some very bad lines. Win the battle in the trenches and watch how much the Offensive production improves.

is irrelevant, other than how it impacts the ability to get a QB in 2025. There are too many variables to leave that to chance. If they can't get a guy in the draft this year they need to start stockpiling picks for 2025 to get to #1 and hope a guy is there.

I hate forcing picks, but you simply can't keep treading water year after year hoping for the harmonic convergence of need and prospect.

In comment 16473392 gersh said:

Quote:

In comment 16473368 Sean said: Quote: Daboll squeezes some wins out of the group and they go 7-10. They pick 12. And we'll hear the same crap about no QB being worth it. Go watch Schoen then spending $50M on Dak out of desperation. As Terps says, they'll only be hungrier next year. Yup - Picking 6 in a historically strong QB draft. AND - biggest team need by far.... If not now, when?

If the choice at #6 is JJ, Penix, or Nix, you're picking QB?

Not me. Trading up isn't looking likely either.

of forcing a QB pick.
What Gettleman did, WAS force a QB pick.
He promised Mara he would draft Eli’s successor.
He wanted Herbert. THATS who he scouted.

When he went back to school he was like Ralph Kramden from the Honneymooners stammering “what do I do now?”
So he goes to an Exhibition game (the Senior Bowl), watches DJ for like 5 min and declares himself full bloom in love.
Then he panics on draft day afraid someone else will take Jones before pick 17 and he overdrafts him at 6.
THATS forcing a WB pick!

Anyone here think that has been Schoen’s procedure.
He wants a QB. Whether that happens or not is only partially in his control.

In comment 16473297 Biteymax22 said:

Quote:

you're not going to win a Super Bowl. So since the goal every year should be to win the Super Bowl, we need a QB rather badly. I really don't want to trade down, but if we whiff on the "big 4" QBs, or perhaps just don't like the one that falls, we need to have a serious discussion about whether or not trading down and trying to acquire a 2025 #1 is the best long term move. If we don't get a QB this year, there needs to be a plan in place to get one in 2025 when we can get out of Jones' contract.

Fully agree. If you can't get one of the top 4 guys this draft, trade down and load up to try and move up next year for a QB.

The problem isn't going magically solve itself, and I don't think we'll be bad enough next year to be in the top 5.

I hear your point. Personally I would absolutely take Penix at #6 because I think he will be an excellent pro, but assuming this was your decision, what is the plan at QB going forward - 2024 and beyond?

In comment 16473417 LW_Giants said:

Quote:

In comment 16473297 Biteymax22 said: Quote: you're not going to win a Super Bowl. So since the goal every year should be to win the Super Bowl, we need a QB rather badly. I really don't want to trade down, but if we whiff on the "big 4" QBs, or perhaps just don't like the one that falls, we need to have a serious discussion about whether or not trading down and trying to acquire a 2025 #1 is the best long term move. If we don't get a QB this year, there needs to be a plan in place to get one in 2025 when we can get out of Jones' contract. Fully agree. If you can't get one of the top 4 guys this draft, trade down and load up to try and move up next year for a QB. The problem isn't going magically solve itself, and I don't think we'll be bad enough next year to be in the top 5.

So in 2025 you are fine forcing the QB pick you wouldn't force in 2024?

There may be some exceptions but I highly doubt teams ever "take a QB just to take one".

Obviously, with the draft its always a BPA vs. Need "tug of war".

In this case, you have a desperate need. That's not debatable. You also have uncommonly great supply in the form of 4 terrific prospects. That may even be 5 depending on the knees (medical reports, and lefty-ness concerns about Pennix -- meaning their best player Andrew Thomas becomes less important to an extent). Lastly, if not RD1 with this premium pick, the next QB draft looks dicey at best.

In short, it would be downright irresponsible to not secure one of these QBs in RD1.

At this point.

In comment 16473362 Mike from Ohio said:

Quote:

in the first round. Plenty of the 6 QBs who end up likely getting picked in the first round this year will be JAGs or worse, but that is not what teams are aiming for. If they think a guy's ceiling is "Can win 10 games with a really good team around him" he is going to be picked in later rounds.

Skim the thread Mike. Because that's precisely what a sizable portion of the fan base is advocating for. If we don't draft a QB in round 1, they will revolt. Period. It doesn't matter to them if the team wasn't able to land one who they have a conviction for. Because the mocks say there could be 6 --that's good enough for them, and if the team doesn't deliver on that, they will declare them incompetent. Well you aren't going to get me to sign up for that. Sorry.

In comment 16473368 Sean said:

Quote:

Daboll squeezes some wins out of the group and they go 7-10. They pick 12. And we'll hear the same crap about no QB being worth it. Go watch Schoen then spending $50M on Dak out of desperation. As Terps says, they'll only be hungrier next year.

Then they trade 2026 picks to go get Carson Beck or (god forbid) Riley Leonard. No QB this year and we are fucked…

In comment 16473421 Mike from Ohio said:

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In comment 16473417 LW_Giants said: Quote: In comment 16473297 Biteymax22 said: Quote: you're not going to win a Super Bowl. So since the goal every year should be to win the Super Bowl, we need a QB rather badly. I really don't want to trade down, but if we whiff on the "big 4" QBs, or perhaps just don't like the one that falls, we need to have a serious discussion about whether or not trading down and trying to acquire a 2025 #1 is the best long term move. If we don't get a QB this year, there needs to be a plan in place to get one in 2025 when we can get out of Jones' contract. Fully agree. If you can't get one of the top 4 guys this draft, trade down and load up to try and move up next year for a QB. The problem isn't going magically solve itself, and I don't think we'll be bad enough next year to be in the top 5. So in 2025 you are fine forcing the QB pick you wouldn't force in 2024?

Two points: (1) i'm on record saying I would do whatever it takes to get a QB this year. I think this class is insanely talented; (2) for 2025, the idea would be to move up to the top 3 of the draft so you don't have to "force" the pick.

They need to come out of this draft with a QB. There is a school of thought that if they do not get one in the 1st round, they shouldn't take one.

I disagree...I think they need another QB on the roster regardless of the round, even though my preference is the 1st round if it attainable.

1) You have to take a chance on someone. If that is the view, you sell the farm to move up, pick a guy at #6, or even trade back in the first if they love Nix or Penix. But you have to take a shot.

2) You wait for the guy you love. If he isn't there - you build the rest of the team and wait. Maybe you take a flyer on a mid round guy this year but that isn't the long term plan.

What I don't necessarily follow is the "Just get the guy in 2025!" Who says "the guy" is even in the draft in 2025? Or 2026?

You can't suggest not forcing a pick in 2024, but then also say "get to the top of the draft in 2025 and get your guy." That is also forcing the pick because you are pre-deciding that a franchise QB will be there.

In comment 16473461 Mike from Ohio said:

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1) You have to take a chance on someone. If that is the view, you sell the farm to move up, pick a guy at #6, or even trade back in the first if they love Nix or Penix. But you have to take a shot. 2) You wait for the guy you love. If he isn't there - you build the rest of the team and wait. Maybe you take a flyer on a mid round guy this year but that isn't the long term plan. What I don't necessarily follow is the "Just get the guy in 2025!" Who says "the guy" is even in the draft in 2025? Or 2026? You can't suggest not forcing a pick in 2024, but then also say "get to the top of the draft in 2025 and get your guy." That is also forcing the pick because you are pre-deciding that a franchise QB will be there.

I agree, this is the draft to move up and get your guy. Don't punt.

In comment 16473427 UberAlias said:

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In comment 16473362 Mike from Ohio said: Quote: in the first round. Plenty of the 6 QBs who end up likely getting picked in the first round this year will be JAGs or worse, but that is not what teams are aiming for. If they think a guy's ceiling is "Can win 10 games with a really good team around him" he is going to be picked in later rounds. Skim the thread Mike. Because that's precisely what a sizable portion of the fan base is advocating for. If we don't draft a QB in round 1, they will revolt. Period. It doesn't matter to them if the team wasn't able to land one who they have a conviction for. Because the mocks say there could be 6 --that's good enough for them, and if the team doesn't deliver on that, they will declare them incompetent. Well you aren't going to get me to sign up for that. Sorry.

I agree. BBI does not speak for the GIANT fanbase.

Virtually every thread on this board is testament to that.

Just look at the QBs. I have no doubt that in 2-3 years when one of these QBs or WRs picked in the top 10 flames out, someone will post "But BBI told me they were a can't miss prospect!"

Those posts should get an immediate one year ban for stupidity polution.

Over the last 20 years only 10 QBs have won the Super Bowl. 5 of those won multiple and 5 won 1.

The 5 that won multiple Brady, EManning, PManning, Roethlesberger & Mahomes

The 5 that won 1 - Rodgers, Brees, Foles, Wilson and Stafford

Only 3 of the 10 were picked in the top 5. 4 were not 1st rounders.

No team that traded up into the top 5 to get a qb has ever won a Super Bowl.

In comment 16473520 Rudy5757 said:

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Over the last 20 years only 10 QBs have won the Super Bowl. 5 of those won multiple and 5 won 1. The 5 that won multiple Brady, EManning, PManning, Roethlesberger & Mahomes The 5 that won 1 - Rodgers, Brees, Foles, Wilson and Stafford Only 3 of the 10 were picked in the top 5. 4 were not 1st rounders. No team that traded up into the top 5 to get a qb has ever won a Super Bowl.

You're cheating a little here.

In comment 16473541 Dnew15 said:

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In comment 16473520 Rudy5757 said: Quote: Over the last 20 years only 10 QBs have won the Super Bowl. 5 of those won multiple and 5 won 1. The 5 that won multiple Brady, EManning, PManning, Roethlesberger & Mahomes The 5 that won 1 - Rodgers, Brees, Foles, Wilson and Stafford Only 3 of the 10 were picked in the top 5. 4 were not 1st rounders. No team that traded up into the top 5 to get a qb has ever won a Super Bowl. You're cheating a little here.

Eli was officially drafted by the Chargers and Phillips was drafted by the Giants. Accorsi took a little risk of taking Phillips to still have the ability to trade for Eli, but the deal wasnt finalized till after the picks. The Giants probably would have drafted Roethlesberger if that was the case.

Now do a Wentz/Foles Super Bowl season for the Eagles.

In comment 16473416 Dave on the UWS said:

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of forcing a QB pick. What Gettleman did, WAS force a QB pick. He promised Mara he would draft Eli’s successor. He wanted Herbert. THATS who he scouted. When he went back to school he was like Ralph Kramden from the Honneymooners stammering “what do I do now?” So he goes to an Exhibition game (the Senior Bowl), watches DJ for like 5 min and declares himself full bloom in love. Then he panics on draft day afraid someone else will take Jones before pick 17 and he overdrafts him at 6. THATS forcing a WB pick! Anyone here think that has been Schoen’s procedure. He wants a QB. Whether that happens or not is only partially in his control.

Excellent post. Schoen has done his homework on these QB's. If he selects Maye or JJM @3,4,5or 6, I will be happy with the selection.

And as for JJM, I want people to understand that he has been highly touted since his high school days. 5 star recruit, winning a state championship, played at IMG, Big 10 football is viable feeder to NFL, 27-1 as a starter, national championship. Very good athlete. Strong arm.

These are facts. If NYG thinks that he is the guy, after scouting, meetings, dinners, the combine, then they should try to move up to 4 if they can.

In comment 16473567 Dnew15 said:

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Now do a Wentz/Foles Super Bowl season for the Eagles.

Foles played very well, there is no guarantee Philly wins with Wentz. The Giants won with Hostetler.

In comment 16473578 Rudy5757 said:

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In comment 16473567 Dnew15 said: Quote: Now do a Wentz/Foles Super Bowl season for the Eagles. Foles played very well, there is no guarantee Philly wins with Wentz. The Giants won with Hostetler.

SURE - I agree...but the Eagles most likely don't get there without Wentz playing the majority of the season like the league MVP.

I'd be surprised if he can play more than 6-8 games this year. So the question becomes which QB would be a guaranteed improvement over Drew Lock? I don't know the answer to that.

In comment 16473434 LW_Giants said:

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In comment 16473421 Mike from Ohio said: Quote: In comment 16473417 LW_Giants said: Quote: In comment 16473297 Biteymax22 said: Quote: you're not going to win a Super Bowl. So since the goal every year should be to win the Super Bowl, we need a QB rather badly. I really don't want to trade down, but if we whiff on the "big 4" QBs, or perhaps just don't like the one that falls, we need to have a serious discussion about whether or not trading down and trying to acquire a 2025 #1 is the best long term move. If we don't get a QB this year, there needs to be a plan in place to get one in 2025 when we can get out of Jones' contract. Fully agree. If you can't get one of the top 4 guys this draft, trade down and load up to try and move up next year for a QB. The problem isn't going magically solve itself, and I don't think we'll be bad enough next year to be in the top 5. So in 2025 you are fine forcing the QB pick you wouldn't force in 2024? Two points: (1) i'm on record saying I would do whatever it takes to get a QB this year. I think this class is insanely talented; (2) for 2025, the idea would be to move up to the top 3 of the draft so you don't have to "force" the pick.

Beat me to it. My comment about “having a plan in place, and looking for an extra 2025 1st” is precisely so we don’t have to force a pick. There will be QB’s worth drafting next year, just likely not 4, so we need ammo.

is a guarantee.

It's all about likelihoods. I think it's likely that most of the guys at the top of this draft are better than both Jones and Lock.

But nothing is for sure.

Take BPA in a position of need in at least the first three rounds in 2024 and 2025. Where and when that is a QB is Schoen’s #1 priority.

In comment 16473642 Trainmaster said:

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Take BPA in a position of need in at least the first three rounds in 2024 and 2025. Where and when that is a QB is Schoen’s #1 priority.

They've been doing your strategy for 6 years. How's it working?

This team needs a QB.

won't help in 2025 if there are two good QB prospects, and the two teams picking at the top of the draft need a QB.

Loading up for 2025 is just a different gamble.

In comment 16473671 Mike from Ohio said:

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won't help in 2025 if there are two good QB prospects, and the two teams picking at the top of the draft need a QB. Loading up for 2025 is just a different gamble.

A "no QB in 2024" scenario very possibly leads to a FA route where Jones's cost is transferred to one of Goff, Prescott, or Russell Wilson.

I want to draft a quarterback every year, because I feel "wait for the right guy" is just another way of saying "full bloom love".

In the Rickey thread he's apparently saying the Giants are in love with Maye. I don't think that's a good thing.

This past year made 30 seasons since the introduction of free agency in 1994.

The Giants' record in those 30 seasons? 222-242.
Number of seasons over .500? 12
Number of double digit win seasons? 8
Number of 13+ win seasons? 0

These last three decades get smoothed over by the two titles, neither of which was won by a great team. But I think it's clear there's a problem in the organizational methodology, and some aspect of that problem is self-scouting and myopia (full-bloom love).

In comment 16473753 Go Terps said:

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This past year made 30 seasons since the introduction of free agency in 1994. The Giants' record in those 30 seasons? 222-242. Number of seasons over .500? 12 Number of double digit win seasons? 8 Number of 13+ win seasons? 0 These last three decades get smoothed over by the two titles, neither of which was won by a great team. But I think it's clear there's a problem in the organizational methodology, and some aspect of that problem is self-scouting and myopia (full-bloom love).

I think this is where you start to lose some posters (I've recently been in agreement with your approach to the Giants and their future).

However, what do the above stats look like for the other 31 teams, including championships? Just curious.

I haven't looked at the other teams in that depth, so I can't say for certain. My sense is generally that this is an organization that is slow or resistant to adapting to changes in how the league operates.

I would try to put a value on Maye and the cost of trading up, and try to secure him.

If that fails, my preference would be #2 on your list, draft the best talent available and continue to work on the foundation. A blue chip WR at #6 and another potential starter at a premium position could be had at #47, and even at #70. Lock is the vet hedge for 2024.

It figures to make 2024 a challenge to sit through unless some of their draft picks start to raise their level of play. But, I'd rather hold 'em and not pick a QB with too many warts at #6.

I am not sure you should draft a QB every year, but you should until you know you have your guy.

No other position on the field is "find a guy who wins a Superbowl or don't take him." You draft WRs who improve your WR group. Same with CB, T, etc. Sometimes you just need one who can be solid.

If the next John Elway isn't in this draft, that's ok. That doesn't mean you can't take the next Kirk Cousins in the 2nd round. But what that requires is the ability to move on from that guy when a better one is available, even if the guy on the roster just had a good year and lead you to the playoffs.

You are building a team that can win, not a support system for the Chosen One at QB.

but don't want to start by burning #6 unless it delivers Maye (or whomever their target is).

JJ, and the two nix < blue chip WRs for me.

I think the time to determine if someone is "the guy" is years 1 & 2 after they were drafted. Two examples from the last two years:

Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh intelligently moved on after two years
CJ Stroud - Houston should already be thinking about what his second contract will look like

If the Giants draft a QB this year I don't want the position bequeathed to him for the next four years. Start him from day 1 and see if he sinks or swims.

Is this the best way to develop a quarterback? Probably not. But the structure of the league is what it is.

But I'm not drafting the next Kirk Cousins at 6 overall. Sorry. That would be a dumb move. You could have signed him if that's the bar.

But people keep pushing for one in round 1, no matter what.

In comment 16473863 JonC said:

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but don't want to start by burning #6 unless it delivers Maye (or whomever their target is). JJ, and the two nix < blue chip WRs for me.

Agree. The potential upside still has to align with where you draft them. A guy you spend a first round pick on should be a guy you think can develop into a top tier QB. But if you don't have a QB and can't get that top tier prospect, you need to have a plan.

Using this year as an example, if no QB they love is available in the first round, grab Nix if he somehow slides to #47 (or within reasonable trade-up range). Take a Rattler, Pratt or Milton in Rd 3 or 4. Try to get better in some way.

What you can't do is wait 5-6 years to decide what you have like the Giants did with Jones. The QB spot should have competition every year until everyone knows you have your guy.

.

I don't disagree but they MUST come away with a QB. I'd prefer a first round QB, but Schoen needs to maneuver the draft to make an investment in the position.

In comment 16473871 Go Terps said:

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I think the time to determine if someone is "the guy" is years 1 & 2 after they were drafted. Two examples from the last two years: Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh intelligently moved on after two years

I agree with the time table, except your Pitt example illustrates the key point here --the big question is finding a guy to move on to. Pitt isn't in any great spot at the position. They're still floating. They kind of QBs they're rolling with are easy to find.

In comment 16473880 UberAlias said:

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But I'm not drafting the next Kirk Cousins at 6 overall. Sorry. That would be a dumb move. You could have signed him if that's the bar.

Given the bust rate for round 1 QBs, I wouldn’t say that landing a QB at #6 with Cousins career would be a mistake. If he finishes his current contract, that’s a 15 year career with 13.5 years as starter.

In comment 16473880 UberAlias said:

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But I'm not drafting the next Kirk Cousins at 6 overall. Sorry. That would be a dumb move. You could have signed him if that's the bar.

What traits are you looking for that guarantee a QB can win a title? If you would have picked Eli in round 1 but not Cousins (or Rivers), what about Eli at Ole Miss told you that he'd twice be part of a team that got hot at the right time?

What about Josh Allen? Lamar? Herbert? Burrow? Can they win Super Bowls? All of them? Some of them? Which ones? Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts came as close or closer than all of them. Why weren't they first round picks?

What is the trait or traits that says Caleb Williams can win a Super Bowl but Bo Nix can't? I personally don't know, but I am pretty confident Daniel Jones can't win a Super Bowl. That much I would say.

No one does. That's why you've got to take lots of swings.

The Giants haven't been taking any swings.

In comment 16473910 MojoEd said:

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In comment 16473880 UberAlias said: Quote: But I'm not drafting the next Kirk Cousins at 6 overall. Sorry. That would be a dumb move. You could have signed him if that's the bar. Given the bust rate for round 1 QBs, I wouldn’t say that landing a QB at #6 with Cousins career would be a mistake. If he finishes his current contract, that’s a 15 year career with 13.5 years as starter.

There's an opportunity cost here. The #6 overall pick is a valuable commodity and there will be blue chip players on the board at positions of need. Passing on one of them for a QB who you could have signed one of the same caliber to in FA would not be a good outcome. If you have a conviction for a guy's potential that he can be the guy --you have to take it. Not arguing otherwise. But let's not overestimate the value of the average QBs. They aren't the answer teams should be looking for.

You cannot win in this league anymore with below average QB play. You might win if a below average QB goes on an ungodly run, but that's not something you plan for. Only idiots plan for that happen.

So this tells you what kind of organizational malpractice has taken place on the Giants. Setting it and forgetting it with Daniel Jones is just about the worst decision any team has made in the NFL over the last half decade, including the Watson and Russ contracts. We have wasted a half decade of Giants football waiting for a bad player to become great.

Don't put words into my mouth. Misrepresenting my position is a waste of anyone's time.

In comment 16473919 UberAlias said:

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Don't put words into my mouth. Misrepresenting my position is a waste of anyone's time.

Then I'm not clear what you're saying when you say that picking the next Kirk Cousins at 6 is a dumb move. I think landing sometime as successful as Cousins has been would be a huge win at 6.

--Neal so far is a bust.
--Thibodeaux is a nice player. But, by the threshold needed for QB for so many, nowhere near an impact player.
--Toney was picked later on, but a bust.
--Barkley given the hype and draft position of was a bust.
--Eli Apple was a bust.
--Ereck Flowers was a bust.

There are so many busts. But with QB, it always comes with so much fear. Given how hard it is to hit on QB, you should be doing it more often not less.

In comment 16473918 Darwinian said:

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You cannot win in this league anymore with below average QB play. You might win if a below average QB goes on an ungodly run, but that's not something you plan for. Only idiots plan for that happen. So this tells you what kind of organizational malpractice has taken place on the Giants. Setting it and forgetting it with Daniel Jones is just about the worst decision any team has made in the NFL over the last half decade, including the Watson and Russ contracts. We have wasted a half decade of Giants football waiting for a bad player to become great.

I agree with the first half. History tells us 2 to 4 of the top 6 QB's will be busts, another 1 to 2 will have good careers but not necessarily studs, and the rest will be studs. This is where it is important to get it right. If we take the next Todd Blackledge and are forced to dump him after 2 years for pennies on the dollar, some will cheer that we recognized our mistake and moved on, but it would be a complete waste of an opportunity to get a stud player or leverage the pick to get a number of valuable assets.

In comment 16473913 Go Terps said:

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No one does. That's why you've got to take lots of swings. The Giants haven't been taking any swings.

I'm all for taking swings. I don't disagree with you on that.
What I am advocating for is --1) don't overestimate the value of Meh QBs. 2) related to 1, have a high standard for what you are looking for in the guy you chose as the QB of the future for your team 3) if you find a guy who meets 1 and 2, got get him, and 4) Don't pass up on blue chip talent for a guy if he doesn't satisfy 1/2. 5) taking "swings" with 2nd round pick or picks later in the first on seasons when we have them is ok. But don't reach on a high first if you don't really have a conviction on a guy. Those commodities are too valuable.

Because if your goal is get a Kirk Cousins like QB, you don't need to spend a #6 over all pick on a guy like that. Plenty of teams who pick that caliber of QBs don't see them worth signing to a 2nd contract, so you can get them in FA.

So in this particular draft where is the line that distinguishes the good from the "meh"? Opinions seem all over the place with the only commonality being Caleb Williams at 1.

In comment 16473937 Go Terps said:

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So in this particular draft where is the line that distinguishes the good from the "meh"? Opinions seem all over the place with the only commonality being Caleb Williams at 1.

I can't speak for Uber, but some of that also has to take into account where they were drafted. I personally do not think that Michael Penix or Bo Nix will be successful enough in the NFL to merit a 1st Round pick especially if the latter is in a system that wants to push the ball down the field. That being said, someone like Penix might have a different reaction if he is drafted on Day 2 versus if Washington selected him 2nd overall.

In comment 16473937 Go Terps said:

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So in this particular draft where is the line that distinguishes the good from the "meh"? Opinions seem all over the place with the only commonality being Caleb Williams at 1.

I have my opinions, but they aren't as informed as the teams. If the team has conviction on a guy, I'll defer to their judgment and be supportive, even if he wasn't my preference. At the same time, where I'm in disagreement with others is if they don't draft a QB, I'll be okay with it. To me, that will be a sign that they didn't see any of the options as franchise guys. They've done enough work on the QBs including having conversations with teams to explore trading up to convince me that they don't see Jones as the answer. I know you see it different, but the facts lead me to a different conclusion.

In comment 16473948 UberAlias said:

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In comment 16473937 Go Terps said: Quote: So in this particular draft where is the line that distinguishes the good from the "meh"? Opinions seem all over the place with the only commonality being Caleb Williams at 1. I have my opinions, but they aren't as informed as the teams. If the team has conviction on a guy, I'll defer to their judgment and be supportive, even if he wasn't my preference. At the same time, where I'm in disagreement with others is if they don't draft a QB, I'll be okay with it. To me, that will be a sign that they didn't see any of the options as franchise guys. They've done enough work on the QBs including having conversations with teams to explore trading up to convince me that they don't see Jones as the answer. I know you see it different, but the facts lead me to a different conclusion.

But what's a "franchise guy"?

A guy who for years from now we aren't debating "should we or shouldn't we". IMO, if you are asking that question, odds are the answer is no. By that definition, Jones was not a franchise guy and I would not have resigned him.

Obviously no one knows where you will be with a guy in 4 years. But it's all about your projection. What are you projecting for the guy? If a guy projects to that definition, you go get him.

In comment 16473926 Mike in NY said:

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In comment 16473918 Darwinian said: Quote: You cannot win in this league anymore with below average QB play. You might win if a below average QB goes on an ungodly run, but that's not something you plan for. Only idiots plan for that happen. So this tells you what kind of organizational malpractice has taken place on the Giants. Setting it and forgetting it with Daniel Jones is just about the worst decision any team has made in the NFL over the last half decade, including the Watson and Russ contracts. We have wasted a half decade of Giants football waiting for a bad player to become great. I agree with the first half. History tells us 2 to 4 of the top 6 QB's will be busts, another 1 to 2 will have good careers but not necessarily studs, and the rest will be studs. This is where it is important to get it right. If we take the next Todd Blackledge and are forced to dump him after 2 years for pennies on the dollar, some will cheer that we recognized our mistake and moved on, but it would be a complete waste of an opportunity to get a stud player or leverage the pick to get a number of valuable assets.

Predicting who will be a stud and who won't is not a science. GMs and HCs don't have complete information. They won't have better information until the player enters the league and faces the speed of the game, the hits, unique NFL defensive looks, NFL coaching. Nobody can bat 1.000. If somebody has a high batting average picking QBs, it's luck due to a small sample size.

The greater sin is hesitating to make a change. You can't do anything about the sunk cost. It's done. And hanging onto a player due to sunk cost is a fundamental error of management. The player isn't worth what you spent anyway. The value you sunk into him is already gone, you just can't admit it yet. But hanging onto such a player is the bigger killer because of OPPORTUNITY COST. You pass on other potential franchise altering QBs because you are trying to turn around a failed player. Getting it wrong with Trey lance didn't paralyze the 49ers. But Daniel Jones paralyzed us. This has been a catastrophe of poor management. You could write a business school thesis on this subject. It's a textbook example of poor management, poor data and probability analysis.

In comment 16473958 Darwinian said:

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In comment 16473926 Mike in NY said: Quote: In comment 16473918 Darwinian said: Quote: You cannot win in this league anymore with below average QB play. You might win if a below average QB goes on an ungodly run, but that's not something you plan for. Only idiots plan for that happen. So this tells you what kind of organizational malpractice has taken place on the Giants. Setting it and forgetting it with Daniel Jones is just about the worst decision any team has made in the NFL over the last half decade, including the Watson and Russ contracts. We have wasted a half decade of Giants football waiting for a bad player to become great. I agree with the first half. History tells us 2 to 4 of the top 6 QB's will be busts, another 1 to 2 will have good careers but not necessarily studs, and the rest will be studs. This is where it is important to get it right. If we take the next Todd Blackledge and are forced to dump him after 2 years for pennies on the dollar, some will cheer that we recognized our mistake and moved on, but it would be a complete waste of an opportunity to get a stud player or leverage the pick to get a number of valuable assets. Predicting who will be a stud and who won't is not a science. GMs and HCs don't have complete information. They won't have better information until the player enters the league and faces the speed of the game, the hits, unique NFL defensive looks, NFL coaching. Nobody can bat 1.000. If somebody has a high batting average picking QBs, it's luck due to a small sample size. The greater sin is hesitating to make a change. You can't do anything about the sunk cost. It's done. And hanging onto a player due to sunk cost is a fundamental error of management. The player isn't worth what you spent anyway. The value you sunk into him is already gone, you just can't admit it yet. But hanging onto such a player is the bigger killer because of OPPORTUNITY COST. You pass on other potential franchise altering QBs because you are trying to turn around a failed player. Getting it wrong with Trey lance didn't paralyze the 49ers. But Daniel Jones paralyzed us. This has been a catastrophe of poor management. You could write a business school thesis on this subject. It's a textbook example of poor management, poor data and probability analysis.

Trey Lance didn't paralyze the 49ers because they had a strong roster when healthy outside of the QB spot. The only reason they were in a spot to trade up for Lance was because of injuries. The Giants, on the other hand, are much further away in terms of their roster construction. Getting it wrong on a QB when we could have hit at other positions that impact the team will set the franchise back.

In comment 16473880 UberAlias said:

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But I'm not drafting the next Kirk Cousins at 6 overall. Sorry. That would be a dumb move. You could have signed him if that's the bar.

In my post I said in round 2.

In comment 16473967 Mike in NY said:

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In comment 16473958 Darwinian said: Trey Lance didn't paralyze the 49ers because they had a strong roster when healthy outside of the QB spot. The only reason they were in a spot to trade up for Lance was because of injuries. The Giants, on the other hand, are much further away in terms of their roster construction. Getting it wrong on a QB when we could have hit at other positions that impact the team will set the franchise back.

That doesn't matter. hey, the 49ers didn't just waste a top pick, they also squandered tons of draft capital getting to the pick. Allegedly, that is supposed to destroy an organization. But it didn't in the case of the 49ers.

There are GMs and teams who are just wired to move on when the writing is on the wall. Like Branch Rickey said, better a year too early than a year too late. The 49ers didn't have to move on from Jimmy G, the Chiefs didn't have to move on from Alex Smith, the Eagles didn't have to move on from Wentz, but those organizations and leaders are shooting for championships, playoff and SB appearances weren't enough. Compare that to the Giants who couldn't possibly think of moving on after a fluke season and one wild card win. Management and our fan base just aren't wired to move on from a semi-popular face of the franchise until they hit rock bottom. It's a miracle the Bears moved on from Fields, the fan base wanted him to stay.

And it does not set a franchise back 5 years. SF and Pitt are examples of teams who missed on first round guys and then quickly moved on.

The mistake was not drafting Daniel Jones. The mistake was constantly pretending it was everyone's fault but his. At some point you just have to say "Yeah you got a raw deal son, but this isn't working here. We're moving on."

The NFL is not little league. It is not about fairness and everyone getting a chance. You produce or you go.

You have to take best player available Lawrence Taylor if you are George Young in 1981! Value is still value. And the opportunity cost of your selection matters! Had George Young drafted Campbell instead of Taylor because of how bad the quarterback position was for the team in 1980, and it was putrid, there would be no Giants championship history as we now know it today.

Yes, quarterback is vital. But reaching for quarterback is the worst mistake a GM can make. Why? Because it is by far the most important position in all of sports and, unlike other premium positions, the selected individual instantly becomes the "anointed one" or the "face of the franchise". And this is because the GM has just bet his career on the pick. And he will do anything to make the selection work, for years if necessary. Haven't we just learned this with DJ? And the Jets with Zach Wilson? And the Panthers now with Bryce Young?

Hopefully Schoen is aware of the age old adage that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it...

In comment 16474014 The Mike said:

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You have to take best player available Lawrence Taylor if you are George Young in 1981! Value is still value. And the opportunity cost of your selection matters! Had George Young drafted Campbell instead of Taylor because of how bad the quarterback position was for the team in 1980, and it was putrid, there would be no Giants championship history as we now know it today. Yes, quarterback is vital. But reaching for quarterback is the worst mistake a GM can make. Why? Because it is by far the most important position in all of sports and, unlike other premium positions, the selected individual instantly becomes the "anointed one" or the "face of the franchise". And this is because the GM has just bet his career on the pick. And he will do anything to make the selection work, for years if necessary. Haven't we just learned this with DJ? And the Jets with Zach Wilson? And the Panthers now with Bryce Young? Hopefully Schoen is aware of the age old adage that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it...

Or he could look to 2017 and go grab a talented WR like Corey Davis, Mike Williams or John Ross. Sy had Mahomes as a 76, which would slot him in as QB7 in this class right after Penix and before Joe Milton.

If Joe Schoen is looking to the 1981 draft to guide his decision in 2024, as Giants fans we are all screwed.

In comment 16474009 Mike from Ohio said:

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And it does not set a franchise back 5 years. SF and Pitt are examples of teams who missed on first round guys and then quickly moved on. The mistake was not drafting Daniel Jones. The mistake was constantly pretending it was everyone's fault but his. At some point you just have to say "Yeah you got a raw deal son, but this isn't working here. We're moving on." The NFL is not little league. It is not about fairness and everyone getting a chance. You produce or you go.

I wonder and fear that it is more that they don’t want to be proven wrong, thus the continuing double downing on him.

In comment 16474009 Mike from Ohio said:

Quote:

And it does not set a franchise back 5 years. SF and Pitt are examples of teams who missed on first round guys and then quickly moved on. The mistake was not drafting Daniel Jones. The mistake was constantly pretending it was everyone's fault but his. At some point you just have to say "Yeah you got a raw deal son, but this isn't working here. We're moving on." The NFL is not little league. It is not about fairness and everyone getting a chance. You produce or you go.

This is it in a nutshell.

The "franchise QB" concept needs to be rethought. It's a title that has to be earned, not bequeathed on draft day.

The next QB should be on notice immediately - Maye, Penix, whomever - be good early or be gone.

In comment 16474033 Mike from Ohio said:

Quote:

In comment 16474014 The Mike said: Quote: You have to take best player available Lawrence Taylor if you are George Young in 1981! Value is still value. And the opportunity cost of your selection matters! Had George Young drafted Campbell instead of Taylor because of how bad the quarterback position was for the team in 1980, and it was putrid, there would be no Giants championship history as we now know it today. Yes, quarterback is vital. But reaching for quarterback is the worst mistake a GM can make. Why? Because it is by far the most important position in all of sports and, unlike other premium positions, the selected individual instantly becomes the "anointed one" or the "face of the franchise". And this is because the GM has just bet his career on the pick. And he will do anything to make the selection work, for years if necessary. Haven't we just learned this with DJ? And the Jets with Zach Wilson? And the Panthers now with Bryce Young? Hopefully Schoen is aware of the age old adage that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it... Or he could look to 2017 and go grab a talented WR like Corey Davis, Mike Williams or John Ross. Sy had Mahomes as a 76, which would slot him in as QB7 in this class right after Penix and before Joe Milton. If Joe Schoen is looking to the 1981 draft to guide his decision in 2024, as Giants fans we are all screwed.

Value is value. The time frame is not relevant. The three wide receivers this year are the Lawrence Taylors of the 2024 draft. Yes, maybe one of these second tier quarterbacks is the next Mahomes. Or maybe they are all the next Zach Wilson? The questions is, who will it be? The Bears thought it was Mitchell Trubisky and actually traded up to get him. What a resolute disaster for that franchise!

I love Penix, but he would be overdrafted at six. I would love to see us trade up for him with our second pick if we can't get Daniels or Maye and instead take one of the WRs at six. And I am in agreement with you on taking a guy like Joe Milton on day three and the premise of investing in a quarterback from the draft every year.

In comment 16474077 Go Terps said:

Quote:

In comment 16474009 Mike from Ohio said: Quote: And it does not set a franchise back 5 years. SF and Pitt are examples of teams who missed on first round guys and then quickly moved on. The mistake was not drafting Daniel Jones. The mistake was constantly pretending it was everyone's fault but his. At some point you just have to say "Yeah you got a raw deal son, but this isn't working here. We're moving on." The NFL is not little league. It is not about fairness and everyone getting a chance. You produce or you go. This is it in a nutshell. The "franchise QB" concept needs to be rethought. It's a title that has to be earned, not bequeathed on draft day. The next QB should be on notice immediately - Maye, Penix, whomever - be good early or be gone.

Agreed. Somewhere the idea of 'drafting a potential franchise quarterback' got changed into 'drafting a franchise quarterback'. These rookies after they get drafted are still the same unknowns they were before the draft. As said above, until they prove at what level they belong in the NFL they are all on a wait and see status.

I think draft commentators start a lot of this with their constant exaggerations of what they think these player's careers will be like. I can't count how many times I have heard a 'draft expert' say things like, "this guy is a franchise quarterback'. Now for fans that know better, that phrase can be easily ignored, but for the ones that don't know any better they often eat that stuff up and regurgitate it back to anyone that will listen. Telling a fan that firmly believes an unproven rookie is a franchise quarterback is akin to telling a wrestling fan that wrestling is fake.

the disconnect is I don't think the first QB is a good value at #6.

In comment 16474102 JonC said:

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the disconnect is I don't think the first QB is a good value at #6.

Unless it's Maye, or a trade up for Maye.

a highly drafted QB doesn't always set your franchise back, or set it back any specified number of years, but can and usually does.

Daniel Jones and the Giants is hardly a unique story.

for most teams it does not get to a second contract, but some examples:

Jets missing on Darnold didn't set them back?
3 years later they missed again on Wilson. You don't think that set them back?
they compounded it with a large portion of their cap on Aaron Rodgers. You don't think missing on Darnold and then Wilson pushed them into the Rodgers decision?

What about the Browns missing on Mayfield?
That didn't set them back as a franchise?
Do you think they consider that ridiculous DeShaun Watson contract if Mayfield panned out?

The Bears and Fields? 3 years later they have the top pick in the draft (via trade, but their pick wasn't much better) and are taking a QB.

The Patriots with Mac Jones? 3 years later they have the 3rd pick in the draft.

All these teams that miss on QB's are right back at the top of the draft probably picking QB's again. That isn't the definition of setting your franchise back?

The 49ers are an outlier. Made an outlier by having a 7th round pick be able to at least manage a game, at best play the position well, but that's not a strategy. that is luck. Almost like Tom Brady, 6th round comp pick luck and people then saying "you don't need to draft a QB early, the Patriots got Brady in the 6th round".

And the Steelers? The Giants have won a playoff game more recently than the Steelers. What have they done that shows you they are a franchise to emulate? Build solid D's and have good coaching, showing you basically how far that can get you without a difference maker at QB?

There are lot more examples where drafting a QB high in the draft and having that QB fail, DOES in fact set a franchise back in multiple ways. On the field, on the cap (which impacts on the field), in the front office, etc.

In comment 16474102 JonC said:

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the disconnect is I don't think the first QB is a good value at #6.

What's funny is I have Maye 6th out of these 6. But I think they're all close enough together (and the need is great enough) that I'd be thrilled to draft Maye at 6. The way I see it the Giants lucked out - they're picking #6 in a class where I think the top 6 QBs have admit an equal chance of being good NFL QBs.

In comment 16474077 Go Terps said:

Quote:

In comment 16474009 Mike from Ohio said: Quote: And it does not set a franchise back 5 years. SF and Pitt are examples of teams who missed on first round guys and then quickly moved on. The mistake was not drafting Daniel Jones. The mistake was constantly pretending it was everyone's fault but his. At some point you just have to say "Yeah you got a raw deal son, but this isn't working here. We're moving on." The NFL is not little league. It is not about fairness and everyone getting a chance. You produce or you go. This is it in a nutshell. The "franchise QB" concept needs to be rethought. It's a title that has to be earned, not bequeathed on draft day. The next QB should be on notice immediately - Maye, Penix, whomever - be good early or be gone.

I agree with you completely, but you know Mara doesn't. He will put the guy on the "Olive Garden Face of the Franchise" scholarship right away and take years to make a determination. Which is why getting it right with a quarterback pick is perhaps that much more important for the Giants than any other NFL franchise.

In comment 16474113 Go Terps said:

Quote:

In comment 16474102 JonC said: Quote: the disconnect is I don't think the first QB is a good value at #6. What's funny is I have Maye 6th out of these 6. But I think they're all close enough together (and the need is great enough) that I'd be thrilled to draft Maye at 6. The way I see it the Giants lucked out - they're picking #6 in a class where I think the top 6 QBs have admit an equal chance of being good NFL QBs.

I hear you. If the other thread regarding the Broncos being willing to part with Surtain Jr, then you'd have my attention on QB at #12. Seeking to maximize the value of #6.

And the Bills took EJ Manual in the first round in 2013. They realized the mistake and signed Tyrod Taylor who was a pro bowl alternate in 2016 and took them to the playoffs in 2017. The next year they drafted Josh Allen.

Some clubs compound the mistake, and some solve it. Missing on a QB does not doom you to years of making bad picks. Being the Jets and the Browns condemns you to years of making bad picks.

In comment 16474163 JonC said:

Quote:

In comment 16474113 Go Terps said: Quote: In comment 16474102 JonC said: Quote: the disconnect is I don't think the first QB is a good value at #6. What's funny is I have Maye 6th out of these 6. But I think they're all close enough together (and the need is great enough) that I'd be thrilled to draft Maye at 6. The way I see it the Giants lucked out - they're picking #6 in a class where I think the top 6 QBs have admit an equal chance of being good NFL QBs. I hear you. If the other thread regarding the Broncos being willing to part with Surtain Jr, then you'd have my attention on QB at #12. Seeking to maximize the value of #6.

Surtain Jr. and #12 for #6? Yes please.

Grab Penix at #12 and let's go!

The Giants are stuck with the Jones contract for next season unless they cut him post-June 1st. Giants have lots of needs. Unless the Giants love a QB that is within reach, I would address some of those other glaring needs in this draft.

In comment 16474167 Mike from Ohio said:

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And the Bills took EJ Manual in the first round in 2013. They realized the mistake and signed Tyrod Taylor who was a pro bowl alternate in 2016 and took them to the playoffs in 2017. The next year they drafted Josh Allen. Some clubs compound the mistake, and some solve it. Missing on a QB does not doom you to years of making bad picks. Being the Jets and the Browns condemns you to years of making bad picks.

Jones has led the Giants to the playoffs too. How does that justify anything?

but I don't see how when you look at EJ Manuel in 2013 until they settled the position in 2018 with Allen as not setting their franchise back.

even moving on from Manuel to journeyman/jag Tyrod Taylor, despite mild success, is not a good outcome for the franchise.

And its worth noting the GM who selected Manuel (Doug Whaley) lost his job.

In comment 16474113 Go Terps said:

Quote:

In comment 16474102 JonC said: Quote: the disconnect is I don't think the first QB is a good value at #6. What's funny is I have Maye 6th out of these 6. But I think they're all close enough together (and the need is great enough) that I'd be thrilled to draft Maye at 6. The way I see it the Giants lucked out - they're picking #6 in a class where I think the top 6 QBs have admit an equal chance of being good NFL QBs.

That's good that you have them all close enough together, but what if the Giants brass does not? What if none of the QB's they have as first round talents are available at 6 and what is left they have Day 2 grades on?

Jones is injured (trend) and expensive. Draft a QB if they have a strong conviction. Missing on QB's is bad and horrific if you gave multiple high picks.

JS/BD have been through this with a great outcome and then correctly passed on Willis. If they can't get the QB I prefer trading back if they can get lot of good DP's.

In comment 16473970 Mike from Ohio said:

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In comment 16473880 UberAlias said: Quote: But I'm not drafting the next Kirk Cousins at 6 overall. Sorry. That would be a dumb move. You could have signed him if that's the bar. In my post I said in round 2.

I know. I'm fine with that in round 2 as well. All I'm opposing here is the QB at all costs crowds who have gone on record about being happy taking a Cousins-type in round 1. IMO, if that's the upside, that's a huge reach at 6. To your posts, I agree with pretty much all of your points.

In comment 16474200 Mike in NY said:

Quote:

In comment 16474113 Go Terps said: Quote: In comment 16474102 JonC said: Quote: the disconnect is I don't think the first QB is a good value at #6. What's funny is I have Maye 6th out of these 6. But I think they're all close enough together (and the need is great enough) that I'd be thrilled to draft Maye at 6. The way I see it the Giants lucked out - they're picking #6 in a class where I think the top 6 QBs have admit an equal chance of being good NFL QBs. That's good that you have them all close enough together, but what if the Giants brass does not? What if none of the QB's they have as first round talents are available at 6 and what is left they have Day 2 grades on?

There are two aspects to that in my brain:

1. If it were very clear and definitive I'd agree - don't reach for the day 2 guy and wait to see if he drops to day 2.

2. This may turn out to be wrong (and this is where Schoen's ability to gather intelligence is crucial), but it seems like all 6 of these guys are going in round 1. I have my opinions on who should go in what order, but there is a ton of disagreement - enough that I don't think the gap is very large. If the Giants have a huge gap between Maye, for example, and everyone else (other than Caleb) that would concern me. That evaluation would feel a lot like full bloom love.

I catch a lot of shit because I wanted the Giants to draft Malik Willis - that was because I knew we had no QB and I wanted to see what Daboll could do with a toolsy rough diamond. That feels a bit like what's happening with Maye here, and it scares me a bit.

That's a rambling way of saying that if they have a big gap I'd be concerned about their scouting.

In comment 16474320 Go Terps said:

Quote:

In comment 16474200 Mike in NY said: Quote: In comment 16474113 Go Terps said: Quote: In comment 16474102 JonC said: Quote: the disconnect is I don't think the first QB is a good value at #6. What's funny is I have Maye 6th out of these 6. But I think they're all close enough together (and the need is great enough) that I'd be thrilled to draft Maye at 6. The way I see it the Giants lucked out - they're picking #6 in a class where I think the top 6 QBs have admit an equal chance of being good NFL QBs. That's good that you have them all close enough together, but what if the Giants brass does not? What if none of the QB's they have as first round talents are available at 6 and what is left they have Day 2 grades on? There are two aspects to that in my brain: 1. If it were very clear and definitive I'd agree - don't reach for the day 2 guy and wait to see if he drops to day 2. 2. This may turn out to be wrong (and this is where Schoen's ability to gather intelligence is crucial), but it seems like all 6 of these guys are going in round 1. I have my opinions on who should go in what order, but there is a ton of disagreement - enough that I don't think the gap is very large. If the Giants have a huge gap between Maye, for example, and everyone else (other than Caleb) that would concern me. That evaluation would feel a lot like full bloom love. I catch a lot of shit because I wanted the Giants to draft Malik Willis - that was because I knew we had no QB and I wanted to see what Daboll could do with a toolsy rough diamond. That feels a bit like what's happening with Maye here, and it scares me a bit. That's a rambling way of saying that if they have a big gap I'd be concerned about their scouting.

(1) Just because there is a lot of disagreement does not mean that the gap is not large on some teams' boards.

(2) Will Levis was in every 1st Round Mock up until Draft Day (many in the Top 5) and look what happened to him last year.

(3) How do we know what to believe? Could teams be hyping up someone like a Penix or Nix to make them seem like first rounders to get others to slide?

That's a rambling way of saying that the proof is in the pudding and we will see if the Giants are proven right about their QB evaluations or not. They were correct in 2022 when they ignored all of the QB's.

.

Paying Jones was a terrible example of self-scouting on the Pro side

but drafts a WR like Nabers or Odunze, while getting a QB like Nix in the 2nd round, remember how well Drew Lock looked when he had a WR like Metcalf to work with against the Philadelphia Eagles? I see Lock as the bridge QB rather than the deer caught in the headlights Jones.

If the team is bad like ours then we aren’t winning anyway. Stop making the DJ scenario out to be more than it is just because you are frustrated fan.