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Vegas Odds the #6 Pick

Eric from BBI : Admin : 4/19/2024 1:33 pm
Throwing down on Penix would be interesting  
UConn4523 : 4/19/2024 1:34 pm : link
.
the three  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 4/19/2024 1:34 pm : link
obvious candidates remain at the top.
Good illustration of what I mean by value  
JonC : 4/19/2024 1:37 pm : link
using Penix at #6 as an example.
Worthy as the same price as Verse is odd  
ajr2456 : 4/19/2024 1:42 pm : link
.
No brainer here: Nabers or Odunze  
The Mike : 4/19/2024 1:45 pm : link
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McCarthy’s Odds  
Reeses Pieces : 4/19/2024 2:03 pm : link
May be skewed by the chance he goes 3rd, 4th or 5th. Can one assume based on this, that if he’s on the board at 6, his odds would be higher than Nabers and Odunze?
RE: Good illustration of what I mean by value  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 2:04 pm : link
In comment 16475360 JonC said:
Quote:
using Penix at #6 as an example.


From a "winning the draft" perspective I agree. But from a team building perspective, I don't think Odunze or Nabers help this team all that much. A coat of paint on a car with no engine.
I'd much rather the Giants draft Alt or one of the DL than the WR  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 2:05 pm : link
.
RE: I'd much rather the Giants draft Alt or one of the DL than the WR  
section125 : 4/19/2024 2:08 pm : link
In comment 16475389 Go Terps said:
Quote:
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You'd prefer to take a lesser player because you have a hill to die on.
Umm  
g56blue10 : 4/19/2024 2:08 pm : link
Odunze or Nabers could help this team a ton. I have landed on hoping we get JJ at size but either one of those guys would be a huge boost in talent
RE: RE: Good illustration of what I mean by value  
JonC : 4/19/2024 2:08 pm : link
In comment 16475388 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16475360 JonC said:


Quote:


using Penix at #6 as an example.



From a "winning the draft" perspective I agree. But from a team building perspective, I don't think Odunze or Nabers help this team all that much. A coat of paint on a car with no engine.


You may need to accept QB doesn't arrive early next Thursday night.

Or, I might need to accept a QB reach.

Either way, I'd prefer they not push hard behind a win-now perspective in 2024, because it often backfires eg 2023, each season under DG, etc. If that means no QB now and they win 6 games, so be it. They'll find their QB at the right time.
RE: I'd much rather the Giants draft Alt or one of the DL than the WR  
GFAN52 : 4/19/2024 2:09 pm : link
In comment 16475389 Go Terps said:
Quote:
.


Ugh. no way Jose.
RE: RE: RE: Good illustration of what I mean by value  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 2:10 pm : link
In comment 16475394 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 16475388 Go Terps said:


Quote:


In comment 16475360 JonC said:


Quote:


using Penix at #6 as an example.



From a "winning the draft" perspective I agree. But from a team building perspective, I don't think Odunze or Nabers help this team all that much. A coat of paint on a car with no engine.



You may need to accept QB doesn't arrive early next Thursday night.

Or, I might need to accept a QB reach.

Either way, I'd prefer they not push hard behind a win-now perspective in 2024, because it often backfires eg 2023, each season under DG, etc. If that means no QB now and they win 6 games, so be it. They'll find their QB at the right time.


See I think the WR is the win now move.
RE: RE: RE: Good illustration of what I mean by value  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 2:13 pm : link
In comment 16475394 JonC said:
Quote:
They'll find their QB at the right time.


I think this sentiment likely mirrors how the Giants front office sees it.

"If a QB is meant to be, he will come to us. Until then, we always have Daniel. Let us get him weapons."
RE: RE: I'd much rather the Giants draft Alt or one of the DL than the WR  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 2:13 pm : link
In comment 16475392 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16475389 Go Terps said:


Quote:


.



You'd prefer to take a lesser player because you have a hill to die on.


The hill I'm dying on is wanting the Giants to actually build a decent team.

Drafting a WR, for this team, doesn't make sense to me.
JonC - I think this needs to be operationally defined  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 2:16 pm : link
"They'll find their QB at the right time."

When is that? What does that look like?
WR could be viewed as win now  
JonC : 4/19/2024 2:16 pm : link
if there's a shred left clinging to Jones, aka more weapons for Daniel.

Ultimately, I think one of the blue chip WRs will be a better NFL player than the 2nd tier of QBs. NYG could wind up at the same conclusion.

I'd be concerned reaching for 2nd tier QB at #6 just like they did for Jones, forcing a QB and trying to move up the win timeline. Time will tell.
I see taking a WR as more of a win now  
LW_Giants : 4/19/2024 2:19 pm : link
move than continuing to build out the O-Line. Wide receivers don't have lasting power like offensive lineman do, and they tend to be divas that get frustrated when they aren't getting the ball enough. Insert Daniel Jones and you're going to have an unhappy receiver.

If they are not going to trade up for a QB, I'd prefer they stick to d or o line.
RE: JonC - I think this needs to be operationally defined  
JonC : 4/19/2024 2:20 pm : link
In comment 16475412 Go Terps said:
Quote:
"They'll find their QB at the right time."

When is that? What does that look like?


They'll find him when they find him. Maybe it's Penix next weekend, maybe it's Ewers or other a year from now. Dunno, I'd say good luck defining it when you're one of thirty-two teams in the pursuit of extremely limited resources. Right now, they have the 2024 draft in front of them and that's it.

I won't be shocked if they skip the QBs and then tell us we don't want to pass over blue chip impact talent for a QB we don't believe will bring championships in return.
Can't keep spending top 6-7 draft picks on the OL  
JonC : 4/19/2024 2:21 pm : link
They've got their LT, need to figure out another way to develop Neal and/or procure competition.
RE: RE: JonC - I think this needs to be operationally defined  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 2:24 pm : link
In comment 16475423 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 16475412 Go Terps said:


Quote:


"They'll find their QB at the right time."

When is that? What does that look like?



They'll find him when they find him. Maybe it's Penix next weekend, maybe it's Ewers or other a year from now. Dunno, I'd say good luck defining it when you're one of thirty-two teams in the pursuit of extremely limited resources. Right now, they have the 2024 draft in front of them and that's it.

I won't be shocked if they skip the QBs and then tell us we don't want to pass over blue chip impact talent for a QB we don't believe will bring championships in return.


I think you're probably going to end up being right.
I'm not sure any move is a "win now" move  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 2:25 pm : link
Schoen said this team is not a player or two away. I don't think any player they draft on Thursday can possibly indicate any type of "win now" mindset.
This is what I can't get by  
Sean : 4/19/2024 2:25 pm : link
The current QB room:
-Jones (coming off an ACL and not worth his salary)
-Lock (one year deal)
-DeVito (benched in a lost season)

This draft is projected to have four top 10 QBs and up to six first round QBs.

I can't accept not coming away with one of the six QBs given the NYG QB situation. If that means Schoen needs to trade down and then trade back up for Penix/Nix I'm fine with that. Imo you have to come away with someone.

It's not about Jones anymore though. They're done with him I believe. Think about this - are the Cardinals and Chargers flying all over the country studying the QBs? Nope.
JonC, with your logic though  
LW_Giants : 4/19/2024 2:25 pm : link
there'd be a reason not to take a QB every single offseason. The giants are unlikely to be bad enough to pick top 3 anytime soon, so is the solution to just keep waiting until we do? At some point you have to make your move, can't sit there every year hoping a top QB falls to you and then say "oh well, maybe next year" when they don't. You have to take chances.
We're not in the game without a top QB  
Darwinian : 4/19/2024 2:27 pm : link
and so an alpha WR is wasted on this team. If they can't get one of the top 3 find a way to get back into the first and take Penix. And if we have to dip in again next draft, so be it.

The Giants have neglected the most important position in sports.
one thing we ALL agree on  
Dave on the UWS : 4/19/2024 2:32 pm : link
is they need a new QB. No one (well almost no one) is debating that.
How they go about it, it the big question.
Impact players are how you win. Not just filling holes. That's the way to mediocrity.

These 3 WRs have the ability to change how defenses play us.
We complain, all the time, who are the players that the other team has to worry about.
If you have a chance get one. Now, the best scenario, is that difference maker IS a QB.
IF they've determined that there is only one QB in this draft that fits that description (likely Maye), and you can't get him (likely), then take the WR.

The only other viable option is, to trade down (slightly), take another QB you like (Penix) and maneuver to get a WR who has a chance to be a differnce maker. The combo then lifts your franchise.
RE: JonC, with your logic though  
JonC : 4/19/2024 2:58 pm : link
In comment 16475430 LW_Giants said:
Quote:
there'd be a reason not to take a QB every single offseason. The giants are unlikely to be bad enough to pick top 3 anytime soon, so is the solution to just keep waiting until we do? At some point you have to make your move, can't sit there every year hoping a top QB falls to you and then say "oh well, maybe next year" when they don't. You have to take chances.


I'm not saying don't take chances, but you gotta believe in a QB. I don't believe in JJ, Penix, Nix. But, the Giants might. You might. Terps does.
If I look at this from Schoen's perspective,  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 3:11 pm : link
I've got this season and next to find the Jones replacement. Eric said this too yesterday on the Scouts Honor podcast.

So let's say they don't come out of this draft with a QB. Forget for a moment the morbidity of a Jones/Lock/DeVito QB room in 2024...

Schoen will be impelled to find a starting QB between March and April 2025. For someone who is on record saying he doesn't want to shop hungry, that's not a good situation.

If you assume they have to find a starting QB between now and May 2025, why would they bypass an opportunity to do it? Aren't two last chances better than one?

And if you don't assume they have to find a starting QB between now and May 2025 is the plan to just stick with Jones, conceivably, through the entirety of his contact and possibly beyond? Is he going to get a full 9-10 year career here, maybe?

I'm really struggling with this.
RE: If I look at this from Schoen's perspective,  
Sean : 4/19/2024 3:17 pm : link
In comment 16475488 Go Terps said:
Quote:
I've got this season and next to find the Jones replacement. Eric said this too yesterday on the Scouts Honor podcast.

So let's say they don't come out of this draft with a QB. Forget for a moment the morbidity of a Jones/Lock/DeVito QB room in 2024...

Schoen will be impelled to find a starting QB between March and April 2025. For someone who is on record saying he doesn't want to shop hungry, that's not a good situation.

If you assume they have to find a starting QB between now and May 2025, why would they bypass an opportunity to do it? Aren't two last chances better than one?

And if you don't assume they have to find a starting QB between now and May 2025 is the plan to just stick with Jones, conceivably, through the entirety of his contact and possibly beyond? Is he going to get a full 9-10 year career here, maybe?

I'm really struggling with this.

You make good point. I think they'll draft either Maye or McCarthy (I'd be pleasantly surprised if they took a bold chance on Penix). Their actions tell me they are doing that.

But, if they don't. I don't think they'll look to the draft. I think we'd enter a scenario where there is a decent chance they pay for a veteran QB like Prescott or Goff. I'd much prefer taking a chance on one of the cheap prospects this year.

I see the Giants at around 6-11/7-10 next year. Probably picking around 7-12. It's the same exact scenario as this year. They may just look to solve QB in March of 2025 if that's the case.
I can't think of a less appealing option  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 3:24 pm : link
that trying to solve our QB issue through free agency.

Which average player do you want to pay an above average salary while they try to figure out how much longer they want to keep doing this?

Schoen was brought in to a team that had a big question mark at QB. He brought with him a QB guru as coach. If he is 5 years into his tenure trying still trying to figure out the QB position, we probably didn't hire the right guy.
RE: I can't think of a less appealing option  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 3:32 pm : link
In comment 16475516 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
that trying to solve our QB issue through free agency.

Which average player do you want to pay an above average salary while they try to figure out how much longer they want to keep doing this?

Schoen was brought in to a team that had a big question mark at QB. He brought with him a QB guru as coach. If he is 5 years into his tenure trying still trying to figure out the QB position, we probably didn't hire the right guy.


A 2025 Ben Johnson/Jared Goff reunion in East Rutherford?
RE: I can't think of a less appealing option  
Sean : 4/19/2024 3:37 pm : link
In comment 16475516 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
that trying to solve our QB issue through free agency.

Which average player do you want to pay an above average salary while they try to figure out how much longer they want to keep doing this?

Schoen was brought in to a team that had a big question mark at QB. He brought with him a QB guru as coach. If he is 5 years into his tenure trying still trying to figure out the QB position, we probably didn't hire the right guy.

I agree. But, if you keep kicking the can down the road the desperation will just increase. This is the year to draft a QB.
RE: RE: RE: I'd much rather the Giants draft Alt or one of the DL than the WR  
section125 : 4/19/2024 3:44 pm : link
In comment 16475410 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16475392 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16475389 Go Terps said:


Quote:


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You'd prefer to take a lesser player because you have a hill to die on.



The hill I'm dying on is wanting the Giants to actually build a decent team.

Drafting a WR, for this team, doesn't make sense to me.


No, it doesn't make sense to YOU(and some others). WR is an important piece - it is a premium position. It is absolutely a need. It may not be your cup of tea and that is your personal preference. 90% would prefer a QB if available, some ALT and some WR.
Personally, I'd trade back if possible then take Penix(and the extra picks) if top 4 are gone.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd much rather the Giants draft Alt or one of the DL than the WR  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 3:46 pm : link
In comment 16475556 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16475410 Go Terps said:


Quote:


In comment 16475392 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16475389 Go Terps said:


Quote:


.



You'd prefer to take a lesser player because you have a hill to die on.



The hill I'm dying on is wanting the Giants to actually build a decent team.

Drafting a WR, for this team, doesn't make sense to me.



No, it doesn't make sense to YOU(and some others). WR is an important piece - it is a premium position. It is absolutely a need. It may not be your cup of tea and that is your personal preference. 90% would prefer a QB if available, some ALT and some WR.
Personally, I'd trade back if possible then take Penix(and the extra picks) if top 4 are gone.


You don't read too well.
Setting aside what's good for the Giants,  
Mike from SI : 4/19/2024 3:59 pm : link
from a betting perspective, I might put a very small amount on Penix. It's not completely inconceivable they go that route, right?
RE: Setting aside what's good for the Giants,  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 4:02 pm : link
In comment 16475585 Mike from SI said:
Quote:
from a betting perspective, I might put a very small amount on Penix. It's not completely inconceivable they go that route, right?


I'd be blown away if they drafted Penix at any point.
A WR doesn’t change how defenses play us  
ajr2456 : 4/19/2024 4:04 pm : link
Until we have a competent QB to throw the ball.
RE: RE: Setting aside what's good for the Giants,  
Mike from SI : 4/19/2024 4:07 pm : link
In comment 16475591 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16475585 Mike from SI said:


Quote:


from a betting perspective, I might put a very small amount on Penix. It's not completely inconceivable they go that route, right?



I'd be blown away if they drafted Penix at any point.


Thanks, you probably just saved me like $1 or maybe even $2.
RE: RE: RE: Good illustration of what I mean by value  
giantstock : 4/19/2024 4:21 pm : link
In comment 16475394 JonC said:
Quote:
In comment 16475388 Go Terps said:


Quote:


In comment 16475360 JonC said:


Quote:


using Penix at #6 as an example.



From a "winning the draft" perspective I agree. But from a team building perspective, I don't think Odunze or Nabers help this team all that much. A coat of paint on a car with no engine.



You may need to accept QB doesn't arrive early next Thursday night.

Or, I might need to accept a QB reach.
They'll find their QB at the right time.


There is the illusion.
Grain of salt because it’s draft week  
ajr2456 : 4/19/2024 4:35 pm : link
But some people do think Washington’s board is Daniels, JJM, Maye.

I don’t buy it.
if they move  
BigBlueCane : 4/19/2024 4:46 pm : link
from Daboll, it'll be for Belicheck or Vrabel. Not Johnson.

Mara ain't passing up that opportunity.
RE: if they move  
section125 : 4/19/2024 4:50 pm : link
In comment 16475675 BigBlueCane said:
Quote:
from Daboll, it'll be for Belicheck or Vrabel. Not Johnson.

Mara ain't passing up that opportunity.


And hopefully Vrabel. But I don't thinks Daboll has any trouble returning.
Eric, are you getting a cut from some sports book?  
ThreePoints : 4/19/2024 4:56 pm : link
What is the point of this thread?
The Giants are not one player away  
Beer Man : 4/19/2024 4:56 pm : link
and it really doesn't matter if they get their QB this year or next. IMO, no QB in this draft is worth giving up the farm to get. I would like to see them play the draft as it comes to them, and only move for the right deal.
RE: RE: I can't think of a less appealing option  
giantstock : 4/19/2024 5:09 pm : link
In comment 16475541 Sean said:
Quote:
In comment 16475516 Mike from Ohio said:


Quote:


that trying to solve our QB issue through free agency.

Which average player do you want to pay an above average salary while they try to figure out how much longer they want to keep doing this?

Schoen was brought in to a team that had a big question mark at QB. He brought with him a QB guru as coach. If he is 5 years into his tenure trying still trying to figure out the QB position, we probably didn't hire the right guy.


I agree. But, if you keep kicking the can down the road the desperation will just increase. This is the year to draft a QB.


+1.

Those that turn the argument into "which player is overall better" in re to WR vs QB more than likely aren't taking Positional Value into account as much as they should.

The reason why the NFL pays more for QB's than WR's is because they are more important. So what a WR is "better" - just as a "DB" could be better or a "DT." But they can NOT impact the game like a QB.

So, if you could get a QB that can mesh the Offensive pieces to one good unit vs a team that has perennial All-PRo WR but an inconsistent QB in which big games the All-Pro is not able to perform to his normal capabilities, you take the QB.

Praying for a QB is not an answer. It's a cop out. However, if you really don't like the QB's (which I believe is the point of some for wanting to get the WR), then getting stud WR is a an okay fallback.





How many teams regret passing on Mahomes or Allen  
widmerseyebrow : 4/19/2024 5:39 pm : link
because the value wasn't right for a developmental QB?

It's actually quite hard to have a good QB prospect available and of the "right value." Unless you're picking #1 or #2, it mostly takes conviction in your scouting and balls. Maybe that's Penix or maybe it's not, but it matters very little what the public thinks in April 2024.
RE: How many teams regret passing on Mahomes or Allen  
Darwinian : 4/19/2024 5:45 pm : link
In comment 16475753 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
because the value wasn't right for a developmental QB?

It's actually quite hard to have a good QB prospect available and of the "right value." Unless you're picking #1 or #2, it mostly takes conviction in your scouting and balls. Maybe that's Penix or maybe it's not, but it matters very little what the public thinks in April 2024.


yes! If you believe you have a superstar QB no price is too high. It's only 2 or 3 firsts because it is unknown how great these guys are going to be. If Mahomes was on the market the bidding would *start* at 5 first round picks.
RE: RE: RE: JonC - I think this needs to be operationally defined  
BleedBlue46 : 4/19/2024 6:20 pm : link
In comment 16475426 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16475423 JonC said:


Quote:


In comment 16475412 Go Terps said:


Quote:


"They'll find their QB at the right time."

When is that? What does that look like?



They'll find him when they find him. Maybe it's Penix next weekend, maybe it's Ewers or other a year from now. Dunno, I'd say good luck defining it when you're one of thirty-two teams in the pursuit of extremely limited resources. Right now, they have the 2024 draft in front of them and that's it.

I won't be shocked if they skip the QBs and then tell us we don't want to pass over blue chip impact talent for a QB we don't believe will bring championships in return.



I think you're probably going to end up being right.


You both could be right and we get Odunze plus Penix. Penix's draft position is super inflated here. I'd say he's more likely to slide into the late 1st/early 2nd than going at in the teens.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd much rather the Giants draft Alt or one of the DL than the WR  
WillVAB : 4/19/2024 7:08 pm : link
In comment 16475556 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16475410 Go Terps said:


Quote:


In comment 16475392 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16475389 Go Terps said:


Quote:


.



You'd prefer to take a lesser player because you have a hill to die on.



The hill I'm dying on is wanting the Giants to actually build a decent team.

Drafting a WR, for this team, doesn't make sense to me.



No, it doesn't make sense to YOU(and some others). WR is an important piece - it is a premium position. It is absolutely a need. It may not be your cup of tea and that is your personal preference. 90% would prefer a QB if available, some ALT and some WR.
Personally, I'd trade back if possible then take Penix(and the extra picks) if top 4 are gone.


How is WR a “premium” position? Because PFF told you so?


Funny how the best teams in the league have mediocre talent at this so called “premium” position.
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