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Lions / Dan Campbell entering year 3

Eric on Li : 4/21/2024 11:53 am
lost in the sauce of them becoming everyone's favorite darling, we should all keep in mind that it took Campbell to his 3rd season to build the team that got to the playoffs and competed. And that there was a 3 year roster building process from the draft that was chiefly responsible for getting them there.

year 1 they were a frisky 3-13-1. offense was 20th in points, defense was dead last at 32. Sewell had an up/down rookie year with a tough transition to RT.

year 2 they started 1-6 before finishing 9-8. offense was 5th in points, defense was only slightly better at 28th. Amon-ra and Sewell began their breakouts, Hutchinson was good but not great.

year 3 they blasted off but it wasn't by accident, it was the culmination of 3 very strong drafts and player development pushing them to the launch point:



in year 3 Sewell & Amon-Ra went from very good players to elite. Alim McNeil is also a very solid player.

in year 2 Hutchinson went from good to DPOY level. Paschal, Rodriguez, Joseph also solid contributors.

their rookie class, deepened by trade down from #6 to #12, added 2 pro bowlers (Gibbs/Laporta) and 2 key defensive starters (Campbell/Branch).

i've made this point re NYG drafts in many threads and is probably going to be something i explore in a more detailed post after the draft, but this is the reality, most head coaches dont get 3 drafts and a roster starting more than 50% their own draft picks. if coaches get to that point, that is what will first and foremost determine their path especially if they've made multiple top 10 picks like NYG/DET have.
a short version of how this relates to NYG  
Eric on Li : 4/21/2024 11:58 am : link
this group plus the guys added to the roster over the next 7 days are largely going to determine the fate of this season (and probably at least dabolls job).



btw i count 8 or 9 projected starters in this group, so if they can add 2 more pro bowlers in this draft and get some of their starters like Thibs/Banks to develop into true impact players, they have a chance. more than 50% of the teams starters are likely to be draft picks of this regime (esp if you count singletary and mccloud, who were draft picks of this regime but in BUF).
It all come down to getting proof  
Bill in UT : 4/21/2024 12:00 pm : link
that Schoen has drafted well. So far, I think that's a huge question mark. If player evaluation and accumulation waren't good, timelines won't matter.
RE: It all come down to getting proof  
Eric on Li : 4/21/2024 12:03 pm : link
In comment 16477950 Bill in UT said:
Quote:
that Schoen has drafted well. So far, I think that's a huge question mark. If player evaluation and accumulation waren't good, timelines won't matter.


agreed Bill - the goose is at least half cooked. either they drafted/develop well or...
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 4/21/2024 12:06 pm : link
Joe's drafts have been meh. He needs to start hitting some home runs.
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 4/21/2024 12:15 pm : link
In comment 16477959 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Joe's drafts have been meh. He needs to start hitting some home runs.


2 (thibodeaux and banks) were good picks.

5 (jms, mcfadden, bellinger, wandale, hyatt) look like starter level players but they all need to take a step forward. wandale and mcfadden each took some steps forward last year.

1 (neal) obviously a bust so far.

3+ belton, flott, davidson (or riley) have paths to starting this year they may or may not be ready for.

every year is big in the NFL but this is a very big year 3 for the development process. not a lot of first time head coaches get 3 drafts.
Lets Not Forget...  
Jim in Tampa : 4/21/2024 12:21 pm : link
that the Matthew Stafford trade represented a haul for the Lions who received:

2 1st Round Picks
2 2nd Round Picks
2 3rd Round Picks
and QB-Goff.

It's a lot easier to be better in year 3 when you have a valuable chip to trade and you make good on many of those picks.

The Giants don't have a valuable QB to trade or the draft capital.
RE: Lets Not Forget...  
Bill in UT : 4/21/2024 12:43 pm : link
In comment 16477983 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
that the Matthew Stafford trade represented a haul for the Lions who received:

2 1st Round Picks
2 2nd Round Picks
2 3rd Round Picks
and QB-Goff.

It's a lot easier to be better in year 3 when you have a valuable chip to trade and you make good on many of those picks.

The Giants don't have a valuable QB to trade or the draft capital.


If we trade up for a QB, we may not have a pick until Day 3, and then only 3 picks, I believe
One big difference  
Lines of Scrimmage : 4/21/2024 12:45 pm : link
is DC wants to run the ball a lot with the RB's and Goff's value is playing from the pocket. JG plays higher percentage under center as well and then excels in PA.

I would love to see the Giants run like Detroit did last year.
29c/136y/4.7ypc. Very similar to the Giants 2005-2010.

Now, they need to get the D to step up.
RE: a short version of how this relates to NYG  
Mayo2JZ : 4/21/2024 12:49 pm : link
In comment 16477944 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
this group plus the guys added to the roster over the next 7 days are largely going to determine the fate of this season (and probably at least dabolls job).



btw i count 8 or 9 projected starters in this group, so if they can add 2 more pro bowlers in this draft and get some of their starters like Thibs/Banks to develop into true impact players, they have a chance. more than 50% of the teams starters are likely to be draft picks of this regime (esp if you count singletary and mccloud, who were draft picks of this regime but in BUF).


Great post. I have said this numerous times about the Lions ascent mainly due to their strong drafts. The fan base is extremely strong and loyal unlike our as evidenced by opposing team fans in our stadium. The Lions are hungry
RE: Lets Not Forget...  
Mayo2JZ : 4/21/2024 12:53 pm : link
In comment 16477983 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
that the Matthew Stafford trade represented a haul for the Lions who received:

2 1st Round Picks
2 2nd Round Picks
2 3rd Round Picks
and QB-Goff.

It's a lot easier to be better in year 3 when you have a valuable chip to trade and you make good on many of those picks.

The Giants don't have a valuable QB to trade or the draft capital.


Perhaps but you said it yourself, the Lions have not only hit in the draft but they have a strong roster top to bottom. JS has got to do better!
Lions have done what we should have been doing  
56goat : 4/21/2024 1:00 pm : link
for the last decade plus. Time to start acting like a professional organization, which means all the Mara family need to stay the hell out of it and let actual football people make the decisions.
They are a good example of  
Chocco : 4/21/2024 1:01 pm : link
Drafting the best available player. People were hammering them for drafting Gibbs already having Montgomery and Swift. Same thing with Williams the year before.
This is all exactly right. (ROI)  
mittenedman : 4/21/2024 1:04 pm : link
Football isn't about QB/no QB. It's about building an effective roster and hitting on your draft picks and UFA signings. Not exactly an earth-shattering revelation but feels like it needs to be said on this website.

The Giants are getting an embarrassing ROI for the amount of resources Schoen's laid out the last 2 years. Either that changes, or they're going to continue to suck. (The seeds they planted need to sprout.)

The good news is, if they do, the Giants can go from bad to good very quickly. That's on Daboll and what looks like a pedestrian staff. We'll see.
RE: They are a good example of  
mittenedman : 4/21/2024 1:05 pm : link
In comment 16478033 Chocco said:
Quote:
Drafting the best available player. People were hammering them for drafting Gibbs already having Montgomery and Swift. Same thing with Williams the year before.


Yup. The dirty little secret is, good players affect the game from any position. Get good players and create a scheme around the good players you have.
RE: Lions have done what we should have been doing  
Chocco : 4/21/2024 1:06 pm : link
In comment 16478030 56goat said:
Quote:
for the last decade plus. Time to start acting like a professional organization, which means all the Mara family need to stay the hell out of it and let actual football people make the decisions.

I wouldn't go that far. The Lions have had a nice run the past 3 years, but they have been an awfully run organization for decades
RE: Lets Not Forget...  
Eric on Li : 4/21/2024 1:17 pm : link
In comment 16477983 Jim in Tampa said:
Quote:
that the Matthew Stafford trade represented a haul for the Lions who received:

2 1st Round Picks
2 2nd Round Picks
2 3rd Round Picks
and QB-Goff.

It's a lot easier to be better in year 3 when you have a valuable chip to trade and you make good on many of those picks.

The Giants don't have a valuable QB to trade or the draft capital.


um did this regime not walk into 2 top 10 picks their first year?
RE: This is all exactly right. (ROI)  
Eric on Li : 4/21/2024 1:22 pm : link
In comment 16478034 mittenedman said:
Quote:
Football isn't about QB/no QB. It's about building an effective roster and hitting on your draft picks and UFA signings. Not exactly an earth-shattering revelation but feels like it needs to be said on this website.

The Giants are getting an embarrassing ROI for the amount of resources Schoen's laid out the last 2 years. Either that changes, or they're going to continue to suck. (The seeds they planted need to sprout.)

The good news is, if they do, the Giants can go from bad to good very quickly. That's on Daboll and what looks like a pedestrian staff. We'll see.


i wouldnt say they are getting embarassing ROI, they are getting average-ish ROI and maybe slightly below, which is obviously not enough to elevate a team.

but things can turn quickly. going into 2007 this draft class had less than 10 starts combined - now it's probably one of the best ROI draft classes ever considering the pick deficit:


RE: RE: Lets Not Forget...  
Rudy5757 : 4/21/2024 1:37 pm : link
In comment 16478045 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16477983 Jim in Tampa said:


Quote:


that the Matthew Stafford trade represented a haul for the Lions who received:

2 1st Round Picks
2 2nd Round Picks
2 3rd Round Picks
and QB-Goff.

It's a lot easier to be better in year 3 when you have a valuable chip to trade and you make good on many of those picks.

The Giants don't have a valuable QB to trade or the draft capital.



um did this regime not walk into 2 top 10 picks their first year?


Has one of them not been a major bust? Your formula only works if you make good picks. Thibs in his 2nd year was not elite.

Yes the Lions have been successful making good draft decisions. If the 2022 picks make a huge leap it could start to happen for the Giants. Can Neal be an NFL right tackle? I say he would be a better guard. Can Thibs get better with Burns taking more attention? I’m not convinced. Can WanDale stay on the field? This has to be his year.

The 2023 draft class has to step up too. A lot has to do with the OL and new OL coach. Can we finally get to the point where these guys play up to their draft status. We have a lot invested on the OL 2 #1s, a 2nd and a 3rd plus a lot of FA money.
RE: RE: Lions have done what we should have been doing  
56goat : 4/21/2024 1:40 pm : link
In comment 16478039 Chocco said:
Quote:
In comment 16478030 56goat said:


Quote:


for the last decade plus. Time to start acting like a professional organization, which means all the Mara family need to stay the hell out of it and let actual football people make the decisions.


I wouldn't go that far. The Lions have had a nice run the past 3 years, but they have been an awfully run organization for decades


What I meant was the Giants should have been doing all along what the Lions have been doing in the last 3 years. You're right, previous to that the Lions front office was a disaster.
RE: RE: RE: Lets Not Forget...  
Eric on Li : 4/21/2024 1:46 pm : link
In comment 16478062 Rudy5757 said:
Quote:
In comment 16478045 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16477983 Jim in Tampa said:


Quote:


that the Matthew Stafford trade represented a haul for the Lions who received:

2 1st Round Picks
2 2nd Round Picks
2 3rd Round Picks
and QB-Goff.

It's a lot easier to be better in year 3 when you have a valuable chip to trade and you make good on many of those picks.

The Giants don't have a valuable QB to trade or the draft capital.



um did this regime not walk into 2 top 10 picks their first year?



Has one of them not been a major bust? Your formula only works if you make good picks. Thibs in his 2nd year was not elite.

Yes the Lions have been successful making good draft decisions. If the 2022 picks make a huge leap it could start to happen for the Giants. Can Neal be an NFL right tackle? I say he would be a better guard. Can Thibs get better with Burns taking more attention? I’m not convinced. Can WanDale stay on the field? This has to be his year.

The 2023 draft class has to step up too. A lot has to do with the OL and new OL coach. Can we finally get to the point where these guys play up to their draft status. We have a lot invested on the OL 2 #1s, a 2nd and a 3rd plus a lot of FA money.


no shit? the bold is the entire point rudy, that and the fact that in the lions case year 3 was a big development year for their 2nd/3rd year players which is not so uncommon.

needing to draft/develop well isn't my formula - it's literally the most fundamental concept of every pro sport.
RE: RE: RE: Lions have done what we should have been doing  
Eric on Li : 4/21/2024 1:51 pm : link
In comment 16478068 56goat said:
Quote:
In comment 16478039 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 16478030 56goat said:


Quote:


for the last decade plus. Time to start acting like a professional organization, which means all the Mara family need to stay the hell out of it and let actual football people make the decisions.


I wouldn't go that far. The Lions have had a nice run the past 3 years, but they have been an awfully run organization for decades



What I meant was the Giants should have been doing all along what the Lions have been doing in the last 3 years. You're right, previous to that the Lions front office was a disaster.


what did the lions do so different from nyg exactly?

both teams used their first 2 top 10 picks on OL/DL the lions just picked 2 better players so far. amon-ra was better than any of either teams other selections but not by as much as became evident from his 3rd season. in year 2 he was good but not great.

also it should probably be pointed out the NYG 2 year record is better than the DET 2 year record by 3 wins and 1 playoff appearance. the chronology of improvement just wasnt as linear.
Okudah  
Longtimelurker : 4/21/2024 2:23 pm : link
Hopefully we get more out of Neal than they got out of Okudah.
That 2021 draft was a killer  
Rudy5757 : 4/21/2024 7:42 pm : link
All we have out of it is Ojulari. He was injured coming in and pretty much stayed injured.
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