Long story short, I was wondering how these QBs stack up to previous years. Is it worth trading up? Is getting the 4th best QB in a class a reach, orworth it?
What better way than to compare Sy's previous grades to the current crop.
Spolier alert, I was shocked at what I found out...
* 4 of the top 12 Sy graded QB's since 2013 are in this draft.
* How did the great 2018 class compare? 3 of top 21
* 5 are rated as good or better than Daniel Jones was coming out, including Nix. Both an 80..
- there may be errors, pease point them out and I can correct them
Full list of grades - (
New Window )
How badly does Sy
Jimmy Meatballs : 12:19 pm : link : reply
want that Josh Rosen grade back? QB’s are a crap shoot
The argument is really undeniable
HardTruth : 12:21 pm : link : reply
To draft QB in this draft
And that McCarthy is worth the 6 pick
Rosen only fell for character concerns as well as a few others on that list
eye-opening
Eric from BBI : Admin : 12:22 pm : link : reply
chart.... not in terms of where he has the class this year but just how much of a crapshoot this is.
Ezoic
RE: How badly does Sy
BleedBlue46 : 12:22 pm : link : reply
In comment 16479392 Jimmy Meatballs said:
Quote:
want that Josh Rosen grade back? QB’s are a crap shoot
Cosell and many others loved Rosen too. And I agree, if these ratings show anything it shows how hard it is to analyze QB prospects.
RE: The argument is really undeniable
BleedBlue46 : 12:24 pm : link : reply
In comment 16479394 HardTruth said:
Quote:
To draft QB in this draft
And that McCarthy is worth the 6 pick
Rosen only fell for character concerns as well as a few others on that list
I'm getting the sense that JJM is likely to go to NE at 3. Kraft sounds like he's in full bloom love.
RE: The argument is really undeniable
Eric from BBI : Admin : 12:25 pm : link : reply
In comment 16479394 HardTruth said:
Quote:
To draft QB in this draft
And that McCarthy is worth the 6 pick
Rosen only fell for character concerns as well as a few others on that list
But would Sy take McCarthy over Nabers/Odunze?
Has he weighed in on this?
Ezoic
RE: How badly does Sy
Dr. D : 12:27 pm : link : reply
In comment 16479392 Jimmy Meatballs said:
Quote:
want that Josh Rosen grade back? QB’s are a crap shoot
It seems intangibles like desire, motivation, heart, etc. are hard to measure.
The consensus rankings of quarterbacks is not very good.
Reese's Pieces : 12:35 pm : link : reply
I would examine the quarterback picks of the pros and hope that I found one or two who consistently were better than the rest and give him or them more weight.
It’s possible that of all the pros, a few of them might know what is really important to a rookie quarterback succeeding in this league.
Dos anybody have a read on next years crop of quarterbacks?
Maijay : 12:37 pm : link : reply
If we don't go QB in the first with a reasonable trade up( no to giving up next years one ) and we are picking top ten is there any qb that warrants a top ten pick?
I know this is just a lot of speculation. Just wondering about no top tier qb this year and how screwed we will be the next couple of seasons.
One factor that is not considered enought is physical dominance.
Ivan15 : 12:57 pm : link : reply
Although there are candidates like Tua, I can only think of 1 QB in the last 20 years who was a “franchise” Qb who wasn’t physically dominant. Drew Brees, although you could include Ryan if you believe he was a franchise Qb.
crapshoot is being kind
djm : 1:08 pm : link : reply
not to mention how many times can we recall seeing 3 of the top QBs in any particular draft end up being good PRO QBs and everything ended happily ever after for the team drafting that QB? I can literally think of maybe 1-2 times. The Eli draft and maybe the Marino /Elway draft.
You see 2 QBs end up being good or great. Rarely do you see 3 let alone 4.
I'd still do it, but be prepared for frustration.
RE: RE: The argument is really undeniable
MojoEd : 1:11 pm : link : reply
In comment 16479403 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
In comment 16479394 HardTruth said:
Quote:
To draft QB in this draft
And that McCarthy is worth the 6 pick
Rosen only fell for character concerns as well as a few others on that list
But would Sy take McCarthy over Nabers/Odunze?
Has he weighed in on this?
Didn’t he once say that he wouldn’t pass on a WR with an All-Pro grade for a second level QB? He gave all 3 WRs All-Pro grades, so presumably he would pass but I am interested in confirmation.
RE: Dos anybody have a read on next years crop of quarterbacks?
BleedBlue46 : 1:11 pm : link : reply
In comment 16479428 Maijay said:
Quote:
If we don't go QB in the first with a reasonable trade up( no to giving up next years one ) and we are picking top ten is there any qb that warrants a top ten pick?
I know this is just a lot of speculation. Just wondering about no top tier qb this year and how screwed we will be the next couple of seasons.
We need to see how they play in 2024 obviously, but Jaxon Dart, Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, Riley Leonard and Quinn Ewers are atop the list right now. I like Ward and Dart.
And WOW!!!!!!
Top 3 WR grades ever by Sy.
Fulll list - ( New Window )
Summary: Junior entry with 2-plus years of starting experience. Led the nation in passing yards and yards per game in 2016, earning him 2nd Team All Big 12 honors. The arm talent of Mahomes is enough to excite anyone, as he possesses the ability to throw the ball 70+ yards in the air. While he may be able to count on one hand how may times he will need to do that in a game over his career, it’s a confirmation that he can throw the rock with anyone. Mahomes comes from the infamous Texas Tech spread attack that will force him in to a full blown student mode for a year or two in the NFL. His mechanics need a lot of work as well, thus he is multiple years away in all likelihood.
Ezoic
*Mahomes is a kid that loves the game, first one in and last one out type. If you had to measure talent with all of these kids, he is probably at the top. But in the same breath I think he is the furthest from being game ready. You will have to commit to him sitting for 2 years and then the thought remains, is that worth a 1st round pick? Tough call.
Upside Pro Comparison: Matthew Stafford – DET
Get comfortable with the idea of paying Jared Goff or Dak Prescott if NYG passes on QB this year.
Based on that i would go wr. Get a qb next year.
Herbert and Stroud.
So the odds are against any of the qb that the giants could get being top ten is terrible.
i think the go terps theory of 'just pick one' falls apart when you look at a chart like this. the straight odds on a non-1st overall pick are about 1 in 10. i count 30 such players on the chart above with the 4 hits mentioned in subject. tennessee took 2 of the above and didnt even need first round picks and still ended up firing their coach + gm. even the first overalls are like 1 in 6.
were it me im not throwing top 10 picks away betting my job on a 1 in 10. im taking my shots my big swing when there's a guy i really like (along with more frequent day 3 darts).
Herbert and Stroud.
So the odds are against any of the qb that the giants could get being top ten is terrible.
Yet only one of the 86+ are top ten...
Summary: Fifth year senior that began his career at Tennessee. Ran in to some tough luck between injuries and the emergence of Josh Dobb, forcing him to transfer. In his two seasons as the starter for Pittsburgh, Peterman showed poise, toughness, and glimpses of domination. He seemed further along than the players he was throwing to and it had a negative impact on his overall numbers. Peterman is smart and aggressive. He understands the little things about reading a defense and moving coverages with his eyes. With more seasoning, he could be a starter in the NFL. He may not possess top tier physical ability, but he has enough.
*There was a time early in the pre draft process where Peterman was in legit contention for the #1 spot on this list. There is a lot of “pro”in him and even though I think his upside is limited, I think he will be a reliable backup in the league. There aren’t enough of these guys and I would be totally fine with NYG using a 3rd rounder on him even though he may never be a big time starter.
Upside Pro Comparison: Matt Moore – MIA
5 - Mahomes (see writeup above)
6 – Davis Webb – California – 6’5/229: 74
Summary: Fourth year senior that graduated from Texas Tech early and was able to transfer to California for a graduate season. He earned Honorable Mention All Pac 12 honors in 2017, replacing last year’s top overall pick Jared Goff. Webb took advantage of his opportunity and displayed an NFL ability. His size and easy throwing motion can get you excited, but he has a ways to go in terms of progression and learning. Webb is a couple years away and will have to spend a lot of time correcting elements such as a footwork, lower body mechanics, and reading a defense, among other things. Possible starter down the road, but more likely a backup.
*Webb is a hot name with some of the people I get to talk with…and others think he won’t ever be a starter. Nobody denies the talent, but he has a ways to go. I’ve watched every game of his from 2016 and he does the same things week in and week out that bother me. He has to completely change his game and while I think it is possible, it’s simply unlikely.
Upside Pro Comparison: Brock Osweiler – CLE
Dave knows far more than the rest of us, so make of that what you will. Last time I looked, Peterman had the worst career passer rating of any QB in the Super Bowl era. (Imagine Tommy Maddox's game against the Eagles extended over seven years.) Davis Webb is, well, Davis Webb.
to me it makes it clear that regardless of what specific grade anyone has on maye or jjm, if the nyg like them as much as they liked allen they should take them whether they are qb3 or qb4 off the board.
bet on the horse you like. the odds are against you either way so take the one you believe in most.
if there's not one you believe in then i agree pass. take a WR or trade down for more picks.
What's crystal clear to you seems wildly inconsistent to me.
You cite the grades on Harrison, Nabers and Odunze as persuasive evidence that one of them is "the smart pick at six" (which they may very well be). Then you suggest that a team already short on picks should trade up into the first round to draft Penix, whom Sy grades in the latter half of round two. Do you trust the grades or not?
IF the Giants end up picking QB4, I hope they at least trade down a little and get another Day 2 pick in 2024 or at least a 2nd rounder in 2025.
i think the go terps theory of 'just pick one' falls apart when you look at a chart like this. the straight odds on a non-1st overall pick are about 1 in 10. i count 30 such players on the chart above with the 4 hits mentioned in subject. tennessee took 2 of the above and didnt even need first round picks and still ended up firing their coach + gm. even the first overalls are like 1 in 6.
were it me im not throwing top 10 picks away betting my job on a 1 in 10. im taking my shots my big swing when there's a guy i really like (along with more frequent day 3 darts).
"Just pick one" sounds like I'd be ok picking Tanner Mordecai at 6. I wouldn't. I also wouldn't want to pick Penix if we had Herbert.
You give me shit for advocating for Malik Willis, but you can see his name right there with or above people picked at the very top of the draft. With him I applied the same logic that it's apparently ok to apply with Drake Maye: get Daboll a rough diamond with tools to see if he can shape it.
This draft has six QBs that are first round possibilities. If we had any kind of decent QB I'd probably be saying to sit tight and maybe draft Pratt or Milton later.
But we don't have any QB. We haven't for a long time.
Quote:
Is the smart pick at six. Even if Maye is there, whom I want, it is probably too big a risk given the opportunity cost of passing on one of these three guys. And seeing JJM bunched with Justin Fields and Bryce Young could not be a more ominous omen. Take WR and trade back up for Penix.
to me it makes it clear that regardless of what specific grade anyone has on maye or jjm, if the nyg like them as much as they liked allen they should take them whether they are qb3 or qb4 off the board.
bet on the horse you like. the odds are against you either way so take the one you believe in most.
if there's not one you believe in then i agree pass. take a WR or trade down for more picks.
Agree with you per usual Eric. It also clarifies (though it shouldn't need clarifying) where these guys land... especially coach/scheme wise is a BIG deal.
It's not a tier differentiation in Sy's grading system (the tier is 81-84), but there seems to be a significant difference between 82 and up vs. 81 and below when you look at this chart. It's not as simple as saying that the national consensus just ranked those guys higher (other sites providing grades like ESPN had Darnold, Wilson relatively higher; Carr, Herbert relatively lower).
I wonder if Sy has ever thought about changing his grading tier so that 82 and 81 are in different groups. Also, I was just finally accepting that we might "only" get a stud wide receiver on Thursday, but the fact that Sy graded these QBs so highly makes me a little more excited about the prospect of a new QB.