It is flawed thinking. The miss rate on Olinemen is pretty high but when you miss they can be serviceable backups but miss on that QB and you hamper multiple positions..
However, the SB piece is also flawed.. First, during that stretch Tom Brady went to multiple SB's, so hard for other QB's in AFC to get there- getting past the GOAT. Now add in Mahomes who has been there multiple times with multiple wins and Burrow who went and almost went again. LJax has won multiple regular season MVP's and was on tbe doorstep to the SB and Josh Allen who has had the Bills as a contender multiple times.
NFC- Stafford, pre dates 2010 but he went and won a SB, Goff went and almost went again, Wentz led a team to the playoffs (close to) but was injured and replaced in a year they won. Jordan Love sat a few years but had Packers in the playoffs, Mayfield bounced a bit but had a second team in the playoffs.. So getting the right guy gets you in 9 to 11 or wins yearly and a chance to make a run..
Half of those Super Bowls have been won by the QBs considered the best in the game during that timeframe (Brady/Mahomes).
4 of the others were won by guys that were also first round picks but just before 2010.
In those 14 seasons, I’d only say 2 of the Super Bowls were won by guys that won’t wind up on the Hall of Fame.
So odds are, you need a top flight QB to win a Super Bowl and in my opinion, you should do everything you can to find one and keep trying until you do.
6 QBs that were drafted in the first round (including 3 1st overall) have won a Super Bowl.
8 of 15 Super Bowls were won by first round QBs. Seems like a pretty good bet to draft one in the first than trying to find the next Tom Brady in the 7th.
no team with a non-winning record that traded up for a quarterback had success with that quarterback (18 instances). Of teams that had a winning record and traded up 5 of 9 had success with the quarterback and 2 are too soon to tell.
Team Prior Season Record QB drafted Draft year
Panthers 7-10 Bryce Young 2023
Titans 7-10 Will Levis 2023
Lions 9-8 Hendon Hooker 2023
Titans 12-5 Malik Willis 2022
Panthers 5-12 Matt Corral 2022
49ers 6-10 Trey Lance 2021
Bears 8-8 Justin Fields 2021
Vikings 7-9 Kellen Mond 2021
Packers 13-3 Jordan Love 2020
Broncos 6-10 Drew Lock 2019
Jets 5-11 Sam Darnold 2018
Bills 9-7 Josh Allen 2018
Cardinals 8-8 Josh Rosen 2018
Ravens 9-7 Lamar Jackson 2018
Steelers 13-3 Mason Rudolph 2018
Bears 3-13 Mitchell Trubisky 2017
Chiefs 12-4 Patrick Mahomes 2017
Texans 9-7 Deshaun Watson 2017
Browns 1-15 DeShone Kizer 2017
49ers 2-14 C.J. Beathard 2017
Rams 7-9 Jared Goff 2016
Eagles 7-9 Carson Wentz 2016
Broncos 12-4 Paxton Lynch 2016
Browns 3-13 Cody Kessler 2016
Rams 6-10 Sean Mannion 2015
Browns 4-12 Johnny Manziel 2014
Vikings 5-10 Teddy Bridgewater 2014
But you better be damn sure of the qb and the system you’re placing the qb in. Draft the right qb for the right system. Give the qb every chance to succeed. If the qb fails that falls on everyone, not just the qb. It’s not a position you should be throwing darts at. Have a plan.
Since 2010 15 of the 28 quarterbacks who started in the Super Bowl were first round picks. Eight were won by first round picks. Brady started 6 and won 4.
Foles started one (But Wentz was that team's no. 1 QB.
The only other non-first rounders were Wilson (2), Kaepernick, Garapollo, Purdy and Hurts.
So 15 of the 28 starters were first rounders. Brady gets you to 21. Of the other 7, three were second rounders and three more (Wilson twice) were third rounders.
high and we have too many needs to risk the #6 pick on a player like McCarthy who's gotten overhyped during this process vs a Nabers and Odunze. You can't force the pick, that's what really sets teams back. Go BPA and focus on building the talent on the roster.
now than it used to be, say pre 2010....if we're talking winning Super Bowls.
No sense worrying about how to win a Super Bowl. You have to win the lottery drafting a marquee flashy QB, then you've got a good chance.
Trying to win it with dominant DVOA, great coaching, and a top 10 QB is really, really, really hard....if that punk #15 in red is on the other side.
Better to root for getting a good solid QB and making good roster building decisions than worrying if the next Mahomes/Burrow type could be lucked into.
moves up in the draft to take their next QB. Because they are often good teams, they put their young QB in a better position to succeed. On the other hand a team with a losing record moves up to pick a QB. Because they are usually a bad team, they put their young QB in a situation that makes it much more difficult to succeed.
The QB may be the most important position on the O, but it still takes a strong supporting cast to succeed.
Didn't Eli win in 2011?
Mahomes has 2
Eagles won with a first round QB winning most of the games
Rams won with a First round QB
You have Wilson and who else?
Exactly. There have been QBs selected in the first round per the time period who are still great despite no SB ring yet.
However, the SB piece is also flawed.. First, during that stretch Tom Brady went to multiple SB's, so hard for other QB's in AFC to get there- getting past the GOAT. Now add in Mahomes who has been there multiple times with multiple wins and Burrow who went and almost went again. LJax has won multiple regular season MVP's and was on tbe doorstep to the SB and Josh Allen who has had the Bills as a contender multiple times.
NFC- Stafford, pre dates 2010 but he went and won a SB, Goff went and almost went again, Wentz led a team to the playoffs (close to) but was injured and replaced in a year they won. Jordan Love sat a few years but had Packers in the playoffs, Mayfield bounced a bit but had a second team in the playoffs.. So getting the right guy gets you in 9 to 11 or wins yearly and a chance to make a run..
Absolutely. Who is Pat Kirwan compared to the geniuses on a message board.
4 of the others were won by guys that were also first round picks but just before 2010.
In those 14 seasons, I’d only say 2 of the Super Bowls were won by guys that won’t wind up on the Hall of Fame.
So odds are, you need a top flight QB to win a Super Bowl and in my opinion, you should do everything you can to find one and keep trying until you do.
8 of 15 Super Bowls were won by first round QBs. Seems like a pretty good bet to draft one in the first than trying to find the next Tom Brady in the 7th.
Team Prior Season Record QB drafted Draft year
Panthers 7-10 Bryce Young 2023
Titans 7-10 Will Levis 2023
Lions 9-8 Hendon Hooker 2023
Titans 12-5 Malik Willis 2022
Panthers 5-12 Matt Corral 2022
49ers 6-10 Trey Lance 2021
Bears 8-8 Justin Fields 2021
Vikings 7-9 Kellen Mond 2021
Packers 13-3 Jordan Love 2020
Broncos 6-10 Drew Lock 2019
Jets 5-11 Sam Darnold 2018
Bills 9-7 Josh Allen 2018
Cardinals 8-8 Josh Rosen 2018
Ravens 9-7 Lamar Jackson 2018
Steelers 13-3 Mason Rudolph 2018
Bears 3-13 Mitchell Trubisky 2017
Chiefs 12-4 Patrick Mahomes 2017
Texans 9-7 Deshaun Watson 2017
Browns 1-15 DeShone Kizer 2017
49ers 2-14 C.J. Beathard 2017
Rams 7-9 Jared Goff 2016
Eagles 7-9 Carson Wentz 2016
Broncos 12-4 Paxton Lynch 2016
Browns 3-13 Cody Kessler 2016
Rams 6-10 Sean Mannion 2015
Browns 4-12 Johnny Manziel 2014
Vikings 5-10 Teddy Bridgewater 2014
Quote:
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Absolutely. Who is Pat Kirwan compared to the geniuses on a message board.
My guess is that he was talking about your take, not Pat's.
Burrow and Hurts have been to Super Bowls.
Foles started one (But Wentz was that team's no. 1 QB.
The only other non-first rounders were Wilson (2), Kaepernick, Garapollo, Purdy and Hurts.
So 15 of the 28 starters were first rounders. Brady gets you to 21. Of the other 7, three were second rounders and three more (Wilson twice) were third rounders.
No sense worrying about how to win a Super Bowl. You have to win the lottery drafting a marquee flashy QB, then you've got a good chance.
Trying to win it with dominant DVOA, great coaching, and a top 10 QB is really, really, really hard....if that punk #15 in red is on the other side.
Better to root for getting a good solid QB and making good roster building decisions than worrying if the next Mahomes/Burrow type could be lucked into.
The QB may be the most important position on the O, but it still takes a strong supporting cast to succeed.