Someone sent this to me last night, because they know how I feel about "Prospect name" bias. Basically, their reputation causes people to see things, rather than a pure clean slate scouting report...
So this chat broke down the top six QBs for this draft, PURELY from a statistical standpoint.
Who would you draft?
Who would you avoid?
I asked where he got this from, he then sent me the full thing. So if you need to cheat, click below
YOU'RE A CHEATER - (
New Window )
SCOUT THE CHART. What can you tell as strengths/weaknesses of each QB? Again, if youc an figure out who they are by name (some are easy), remove that and scout the stats.
Go through each QB, red vs green, what are they good at and what are they bad at?
Then go takealook at the "scouting reports" and see how they compare to the numbers. ANd how you scouted the stats.
Maye has the tools and size to develop quite nicely and bring about a change to this team mentally and "spiritually- energy wise".. One huge problem with trying to develop a winner is putting a guy/thing whatever out there that has been a loser (wins and lossses) far more often than not and has been part of some serious blunders during that time.
At some point the Daniel Jones as your QB becomes the wrestler you keep trying to generate some crowd interest with but completely falls on its face each time. After awhile even the other wrestlers can't buy into it.. That to me is where the Giants are with Jones, players might like him but nobody is BELIEVING in him as the guy to lead the way...
- Throws lots of screens/short passes
- Shortest time to throw - is that system, due to screens, both, quick decision maker??
- Avoids pressure, but when pressured is great completing passes. Probably dump offs, because few deep shots unde pressure too.
- For a short passer, he is great at third and long
- Is this a game manager, or a west coast guru? Not a Giants fit, but for the right systme could be a great fit.
#2:
- Not a winner or terrible supporting cast??
- Throws deep, but low completion percentage. Bad completion percent at all levels actually.
- Does he throw deep because he isnt good at the short game, or the system forces it??
- Lowest QBR of the group!!
- TERRIBLE under pressure
- A good fit for Giants due to deep ball, or bad fit due to the horrible pressure stats? This looks like a 3rd to 5th round pick to me. I'd avoid whoever it is.
#3:
- Drool, that winning percentage. Dead giveaway who this is due purely to that unfortunately. Is he a winner, or carried by a dominant team?
- Suprisingly a high 1st down thrower
- Amazing completion percentages. Yet VERY few screens. Since we know who this is, suprised me since critique is coach didnt trust him. Yet few screens and threw on 1st.
- But he has low yards and TDs, because not a pass happy team.
- AMAZING under pressure, but turnovers.
- Great Deep numbers
- Deep ball, efficient and great under pressure, those two alone jump out to me thinking the G men would like this one honestly. But, since this was a giveaway, could be prospect bias
#4:
- Not a winner, but great TD numbers
- TON of time to throw. Slow decisionmaker or is this a playmaer who extends plays??
- Lots of screens, so why the long time to throw, confused now...
- Good short and long, but not good in between. Bigger red flag to me than most.
- Horrible under pressure
- This one is the biggest unknown to me. If I had to guess, I'd say late first, early second round flyer on them?
#5:
- High compelteion %, depth, lots of 1st down passing.
Low yards & TDs, but great Td/int's.
- QBR jumps off the page, massive difference from him to lowest.
- Great under ressuer, but takes sacks.
- Vey good medium to long game, Great 3rd downs
- Without knowing who this is, they jump off the chart to me as the clear #1 overall pick.
#6:
- Quick throws, but also deep balls. Odd
- Bad TD/Int, is that because theya re a risk taker with the deep game?
- Very low pressure, but when pressured not great. Chucks it deep
- Terrible at 3rd and long, low completion % and thows INT's when going deep. but good short to middle game.
- Don't know who this is, but seems to chuck it deep and gets bailed out. I doubt this is the system, my guess is they have a poor supporting cast but a great WR he trusts. I would not draft this QB if that's the case.
1: JJM is my second, who I would use the 6th pick for, might even move up if they see stuff on tape they love.
Late 1: Nix, but may not be the system fit? But the QB will be here longer than the coaching staff so...
2: I was floored when I realized this was Caleb, consensus #1 oveall all offseason. Clearly the stats dont do his tape jsutice. but I would use our second rounder on him lol, shows you how little I know
4: Penix... Unfortunately my guess about the WR may have been more spot on than I expected. Odunze shoots up my draft board even higher after that write up by me.
5: Maye. OUCH!!!! We all hear abouthis physical tools, something that won't show in the stats. And projection. So this is where the pros really shine, but on paper - wuldn't touch himwith a ten foot poll. but obviously scouts are better than nmy number crunching.
Extremely interesting exercise. Almost no QB wound up where I would have expected them. Daniels was my clear winner. JJM impressed me. Nix suprised me. Maye SHOCKED me. And I completely whiffed on Caleb 🤣
If you want to see the names, you can click on the link. Scroll just a bit down.
The comment that lists each number with a white bar next to it.
Click on the white bar and it will reveal the name. Do it for each you want to know.
Quote:
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If you want to see the names, you can click on the link. Scroll just a bit down.
The comment that lists each number with a white bar next to it.
Click on the white bar and it will reveal the name. Do it for each you want to know.
- Throws lots of screens/short passes
- Shortest time to throw - is that system, due to screens, both, quick decision maker??
- Avoids pressure, but when pressured is great completing passes. Probably dump offs, because few deep shots unde pressure too.
- For a short passer, he is great at third and long
- Is this a game manager, or a west coast guru? Not a Giants fit, but for the right systme could be a great fit.
#2:
- Not a winner or terrible supporting cast??
- Throws deep, but low completion percentage. Bad completion percent at all levels actually.
- Does he throw deep because he isnt good at the short game, or the system forces it??
- Lowest QBR of the group!!
- TERRIBLE under pressure
- A good fit for Giants due to deep ball, or bad fit due to the horrible pressure stats? This looks like a 3rd to 5th round pick to me. I'd avoid whoever it is.
#3:
- Drool, that winning percentage. Dead giveaway who this is due purely to that unfortunately. Is he a winner, or carried by a dominant team?
- Suprisingly a high 1st down thrower
- Amazing completion percentages. Yet VERY few screens. Since we know who this is, suprised me since critique is coach didnt trust him. Yet few screens and threw on 1st.
- But he has low yards and TDs, because not a pass happy team.
- AMAZING under pressure, but turnovers.
- Great Deep numbers
- Deep ball, efficient and great under pressure, those two alone jump out to me thinking the G men would like this one honestly. But, since this was a giveaway, could be prospect bias
#4:
- Not a winner, but great TD numbers
- TON of time to throw. Slow decisionmaker or is this a playmaer who extends plays??
- Lots of screens, so why the long time to throw, confused now...
- Good short and long, but not good in between. Bigger red flag to me than most.
- Horrible under pressure
- This one is the biggest unknown to me. If I had to guess, I'd say late first, early second round flyer on them?
#5:
- High compelteion %, depth, lots of 1st down passing.
Low yards & TDs, but great Td/int's.
- QBR jumps off the page, massive difference from him to lowest.
- Great under ressuer, but takes sacks.
- Vey good medium to long game, Great 3rd downs
- Without knowing who this is, they jump off the chart to me as the clear #1 overall pick.
#6:
- Quick throws, but also deep balls. Odd
- Bad TD/Int, is that because theya re a risk taker with the deep game?
- Very low pressure, but when pressured not great. Chucks it deep
- Terrible at 3rd and long, low completion % and thows INT's when going deep. but good short to middle game.
- Don't know who this is, but seems to chuck it deep and gets bailed out. I doubt this is the system, my guess is they have a poor supporting cast but a great WR he trusts. I would not draft this QB if that's the case.
I had a similar reaction to you when reading the numbers
Show me the man who picks himself up and I will show you a winner.
Show me the man who picks himself up and I will show you a winner.
Im a massive believer in you need that in your leader, QB or anywhere elsse. So I wont disagree it's a piece to thepuzzle.
But I have also swung and missed by falling in love with a prospect purely because of that dog mentality. I never feel in love with a prospect more than Leftwich as he teammates carried him to the line of scrimmage.
But at the end of the day, more strong leaders/low talent guys bust than anything else. It's all pieces to the puzzle IMO.
different schemes, different protection, different weapons
picking a QB is should be based on projection in your system.
different schemes, different protection, different weapons
picking a QB is should be based on projection in your system.
That's the exact point of this original post. Nothing can be done in a vacuum. But this exercise takes a lot of the noise out of thepicture and a complete unique view.
Stats alone can tell you when a college hitter hits 25 HR, he's got power. But another player they keep saying has power but only hit 8 HR's, it makes you wonder. Especially since most scouting reports just regurgitat whatever the first report says.
Most importantly, comments from post actually do talk about system fits.
Not a Giants fit, but for the right systme could be a great fit.
- A good fit for Giants due to deep ball, or bad fit due to the horrible pressure stats?
Deep ball, efficient and great under pressure, those two alone jump out to me thinking the G men would like this one honestly.
Nix, but may not be the system fit? But the QB will be here longer than the coaching staff so...
We all hear abouthis physical tools, something that won't show in the stats. And projection. So this is where the pros really shine, but on paper - wuldn't touch himwith a ten foot poll. but obviously scouts are better than nmy number crunching.
Which are the three I loved throughout the season too. I am consistent.
My dream scenario remains one of Harrison/Nabers in 1 and then getting Nix/Penix with our next pick. Trade up if necessary.
My second choice would be #1 by a hair over #6 (not sure who they are).
- The comment that lists each number with a white bar next to it.
- Click on the white bar and it will reveal the name. Do it for each you want to know.
Which are the three I loved throughout the season too. I am consistent.
My dream scenario remains one of Harrison/Nabers in 1 and then getting Nix/Penix with our next pick. Trade up if necessary.
That's pretty awesome that the guys you liked, you still like without their names attached to it.
I'll be honest, I was very suprised by how different my thoughts were before the exercise vs after.
Quote:
I picked Nix, Daniels and Penix...
Which are the three I loved throughout the season too. I am consistent.
My dream scenario remains one of Harrison/Nabers in 1 and then getting Nix/Penix with our next pick. Trade up if necessary.
That's pretty awesome that the guys you liked, you still like without their names attached to it.
I'll be honest, I was very suprised by how different my thoughts were before the exercise vs after.
Drake Maye is scary in this context. And so is Caleb Williams.