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Chargers Odds to draft a QB from 100:1 to 6:1

upnyg : 4/24/2024 12:13 pm
ESPN reported that odds have moved from 100:1 to 6:1 this week on Chargers drafting a QB.

However, in the link Schefter says "no chance"
Link - ( New Window )
Maybe they mean the fifth pick  
jeff57 : 4/24/2024 12:14 pm : link
.
I dont know why people think Odds mean anything  
blueblood : 4/24/2024 12:15 pm : link
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
RE: Maybe they mean the fifth pick  
upnyg : 4/24/2024 12:17 pm : link
In comment 16483415 jeff57 said:
Quote:
.
They asked that question and stated the odds were on the Chargers making the pick, its on the link.
RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything  
Anakim : 4/24/2024 12:18 pm : link
In comment 16483416 blueblood said:
Quote:
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..


Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
They would incur  
JoeyBigBlue : 4/24/2024 12:18 pm : link
A massive dead money cap situation if they trade Herbert. It’s not going to happen. Herbert has his flaws but he’s better than any of these prospects outside of Caleb, IMO.
.  
Danny Kanell : 4/24/2024 12:18 pm : link
This shouldn't be dismissed IMO.

Odds changing like this is meaningful.
That's a big shift, and that usually means something.  
81_Great_Dane : 4/24/2024 12:20 pm : link
The sports books don't do that unless they either are seeing a lot of money moving one direction or they know something.

Maybe the Chargers are going to trade Herbert? Seems nuts to me but maybe Harbaugh wants McCarthy and is willing to kind of blow it up.
Rumor is  
Tom from LI : 4/24/2024 12:20 pm : link
Chargers trading Herbert to the Vikings.

I thought it was a joke but I am seeing more and more about it.
.  
Danny Kanell : 4/24/2024 12:23 pm : link
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
RE: Rumor is  
BleedBlue46 : 4/24/2024 12:23 pm : link
In comment 16483434 Tom from LI said:
Quote:
Chargers trading Herbert to the Vikings.

I thought it was a joke but I am seeing more and more about it.


They would have to cover a lot of that deadcap to make it work I think. Pick 11, 23 2025 1st for Herbert plus they cover the dead cap costs? I'd seriously consider that if I were Harbaugh. Chargers are in rebuild mode, hard to do that while paying top dollar to your QB.
RE: .  
BleedBlue46 : 4/24/2024 12:23 pm : link
In comment 16483439 Danny Kanell said:
Quote:
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.


I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.
RE: RE: .  
Danny Kanell : 4/24/2024 12:25 pm : link
In comment 16483441 BleedBlue46 said:
Quote:
In comment 16483439 Danny Kanell said:


Quote:


I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.



I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.


Yeah that makes sense. And man, if I'm the Chargers who are starting over...I'm taking that deal.
RE: RE: .  
upnyg : 4/24/2024 12:26 pm : link
In comment 16483441 BleedBlue46 said:
Quote:
In comment 16483439 Danny Kanell said:


Quote:


I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.



I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.
While this is just guessing, then the Chargers would need assurances of getting JJ.
RE: .  
Tom from LI : 4/24/2024 12:26 pm : link
In comment 16483439 Danny Kanell said:
Quote:
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.


I so agree with you... he is so overrated.
RE: RE: .  
jeff57 : 4/24/2024 12:28 pm : link
In comment 16483450 Tom from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 16483439 Danny Kanell said:


Quote:


I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.



I so agree with you... he is so overrated.


Don't agree at all. Giants should trade the number 1 pick for him and Chargers can take McCarthy and Nabers.
trading Herbert to Vikes  
bc4life : 4/24/2024 12:28 pm : link
BS. if they were going to trade him, they'd be shopping him for other offers. and why wait this late?

Trade a proven franchise QB to gamble on a rookie? - nfw
RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything  
Capt. Don : 4/24/2024 12:28 pm : link
In comment 16483416 blueblood said:
Quote:
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..


But they are moving it for a reason. A change like that means an influx of people are betting a certain way. That does not happen randomly.
Wow, that would be a blockbuster move by the Vikings!  
ZogZerg : 4/24/2024 12:29 pm : link
Charger would then have 3 first round picks to get JJ and build around him.

Almost makes too much sense, except for the whole cap thing.
Herbert overrated???  
bc4life : 4/24/2024 12:31 pm : link
Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022
If that Herbert to MINN rumor is true  
cosmicj : 4/24/2024 12:34 pm : link
The 3rd and 4th picks just got a lot less valuable.

It’s going to be an exciting couple of days.
RE: Herbert overrated???  
Danny Kanell : 4/24/2024 12:38 pm : link
In comment 16483470 bc4life said:
Quote:
Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022


That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.
RE: Herbert overrated???  
Tom from LI : 4/24/2024 12:40 pm : link
In comment 16483470 bc4life said:
Quote:
Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022


0-1 in the playoffs with a big choke.

Remind me again, are do we want a Fantasy QB or a QB that can win a championship?


RE: RE: Herbert overrated???  
jeff57 : 4/24/2024 12:42 pm : link
In comment 16483495 Danny Kanell said:
Quote:
In comment 16483470 bc4life said:


Quote:


Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022



That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.


It's not that good a team. And had terrible coaching.
RE: RE: Herbert overrated???  
jeff57 : 4/24/2024 12:43 pm : link
In comment 16483504 Tom from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 16483470 bc4life said:


Quote:


Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022



0-1 in the playoffs with a big choke.

Remind me again, are do we want a Fantasy QB or a QB that can win a championship?



Yes, we want Hostetler not Herbert.
Virtually no way trade happens due to cap hit  
Shecky : 4/24/2024 12:43 pm : link
But, if they are entertaining the idea…

Giants trade 6th for Herbert. Chargers get JJM paired with a dynamic WR and 2025 + are in amazing cap situation…
Well, it would definitely be Harbaugh ...  
FStubbs : 4/24/2024 12:43 pm : link
... putting his money where his mouth is about McCarthy being an amazing QB. If he really believed in McCarthy, then yes, he would look into drafting him outright and trading Herbert for the highest bidder.

I don't think this will happen, though.
But odds are this leaks from JJM camp  
Shecky : 4/24/2024 12:44 pm : link
Why? The only unresolved question about him is, if Harbaugh loves him as much as he claims, why doesn’t he draft him?
RE: RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything  
ThreePoints : 4/24/2024 12:44 pm : link
In comment 16483424 Anakim said:
Quote:
In comment 16483416 blueblood said:


Quote:


like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..



Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.


Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.

You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!

I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
Odds changing  
The Dude : 4/24/2024 12:45 pm : link
are interesting, however, all odds tend to shrink the closer you get to the day of the draft.

As drastic as 100 to 6? Maybe not.. but piecing together info with 24 hours left, oddsmakers eliminate 80% of positions from a team drafting as high as 5.
RE: RE: RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything  
Anakim : 4/24/2024 12:47 pm : link
In comment 16483522 ThreePoints said:
Quote:
In comment 16483424 Anakim said:


Quote:


In comment 16483416 blueblood said:


Quote:


like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..



Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.



Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.

You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!

I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.



Duh. But the point is they know something that the average Joe doesn't. As a result, they will inflate (deflate) the odds based on that information. They don't just randomly and haphazardly change the odds. That would make for terrible bookmakers and would end up, yes, costing them money.
This still  
Jaenyg : 4/24/2024 12:51 pm : link
Screws us. Means Pats have to take one at 3.
RE: RE: RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything  
The Dude : 4/24/2024 12:53 pm : link
In comment 16483522 ThreePoints said:
Quote:
In comment 16483424 Anakim said:


Quote:


In comment 16483416 blueblood said:


Quote:


like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..



Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.



Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.

You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!

I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.


Well yeah....I understand how that city in the desert was built. It's not an open and close case like you make it out to be though lol.

I've been betting (read as losing!) for 15 years. As i noted above, a drastic move like this is at-worst worth noting. Thats not to say though that in general, all odds will shrink down with 24 hours to go. I see this as "interesting", but far from "breaking news"
Herbert is not overrated  
bc4life : 4/24/2024 12:53 pm : link
there are 53 reasons why teams lose games, it's not just on the QB.

Herbert overrated wtaf???
Might this just be Chargers make the pick then trade it  
Lurts : 4/24/2024 12:55 pm : link
with a deal already in place?

Like Eli/Rivers.
If the Chargers take McCarthy  
Metnut : 4/24/2024 12:57 pm : link
would you want NYG to offer #6, #47 and 2025 1st for Herbert?

That's a big price to pay, plus you have to pay Herbert right away afterward, but I think he's a franchise QB and you make the deal.
RE: If the Chargers take McCarthy  
jeff57 : 4/24/2024 1:02 pm : link
In comment 16483572 Metnut said:
Quote:
would you want NYG to offer #6, #47 and 2025 1st for Herbert?

That's a big price to pay, plus you have to pay Herbert right away afterward, but I think he's a franchise QB and you make the deal.


That is a big price. But for him I'd do it.
RE: Herbert is not overrated  
Jim in Tampa : 4/24/2024 1:04 pm : link
In comment 16483557 bc4life said:
Quote:
there are 53 reasons why teams lose games, it's not just on the QB.

Herbert overrated wtaf???

You're forgetting one of the basic tenets of BBI...

When the Giants lose it's not the QB's fault. It's because the rest of the team and all the coaches suck.

When the other team loses it's the QB's fault, no matter how bad the rest of the team is.
RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything  
mfjmfj : 4/24/2024 1:05 pm : link
In comment 16483416 blueblood said:
Quote:
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..


This is exactly what it is not. Bookies don't set odds. Bettors do. Bookies - especially the big players - never have money in the game. They are just taking the vig. So the odds reflect the betting of all people who are betting. It is more predictive than almost any other single piece of information, other than actually being in the head of the decision maker.

If the actual bet is Chargers taking a QB (which seems absurd) then someone has put a lot of money down on them doing that. Big money movement like that can sometimes be a sign of inside information being played.

And Herbert's signed through 2029  
jeff57 : 4/24/2024 1:05 pm : link
But the dead cap hit for the Chargers is ridiculous. They couldn't afford to trade him.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Might this just be Chargers make the pick then trade it  
Amtoft : 4/24/2024 1:25 pm : link
In comment 16483566 Lurts said:
Quote:
with a deal already in place?

Like Eli/Rivers.


You can't do that anymore.
RE: And Herbert's signed through 2029  
stoneman : 4/24/2024 1:27 pm : link
In comment 16483595 jeff57 said:
Quote:
But the dead cap hit for the Chargers is ridiculous. They couldn't afford to trade him. Link - ( New Window )


then the line movement must be for the 6th pick, not the Chargers taking QB. They can't possible trade him tomorrow.
RE: RE: If the Chargers take McCarthy  
Darwinian : 4/24/2024 1:28 pm : link
In comment 16483584 jeff57 said:
Quote:
In comment 16483572 Metnut said:


Quote:


would you want NYG to offer #6, #47 and 2025 1st for Herbert?

That's a big price to pay, plus you have to pay Herbert right away afterward, but I think he's a franchise QB and you make the deal.



That is a big price. But for him I'd do it.


You think that's a big price for Justin Herbert? Well, then imagine what real price would be, north of 3 first round picks.
RE: And Herbert's signed through 2029  
Amtoft : 4/24/2024 1:28 pm : link
In comment 16483595 jeff57 said:
Quote:
But the dead cap hit for the Chargers is ridiculous. They couldn't afford to trade him. Link - ( New Window )


Trading and cutting are two different things. The dead cap would be if they cut him all his future guarantee years would have to be paid. However if you trade him his future guarantee money and deadcap money goes to the new team. Only his signing bonus and any roster bonuses already paid this year would accelerate to the cap this year. I mean I could be wrong, but I believe this is how it works.
err - the 5th pick  
stoneman : 4/24/2024 1:28 pm : link
.
I don't want to hear about individual QB stats  
djm : 4/24/2024 1:49 pm : link
as much as I want to see pts scored. Sure stats are nice and can be a indicator but end of the day, you're QB should be helping the offense score pts. Who cares how he does it as lng as the offense is scoring pts. What good is 30 passing Tds if the offense isn't scoring?

Chargers Pts scored:
2023-346
2022-391
2021-474 (impressive)
2020-383

Meh. Had a terrific skill set and by no means am I implying that Herbert isn't worthy of a starting job or serious investments, but to me, the pts scored aint all that and the guy has had a solid or better offensive supporting cast.

PS, the pts scored is getting worse.

I am sure some of you will find something to defend, but the guy aint all that. He needs to be better if you want to call him ELITE. Those stats and his W/L record say NOPE.

Eli led the Giants to 430 pts in 2015 and half this place said it was all Beckham and chucking and ducking. No OL. NO RBS. ONE WR. NO Defense. LEt me see Herbert score that many pts with such little help. HE won't, don't worry.
I think HErbert is a good QB  
djm : 4/24/2024 1:51 pm : link
with even more upside. But he's not great, not yet. Coaching matters. Systems matter. Chargers got themselves a nearly fool proof QB and they haven't won a fucking thing. And their offense isn't even elite.

Learn from that. Or at least try.
RE: If that Herbert to MINN rumor is true  
BleedBlue46 : 4/24/2024 1:54 pm : link
In comment 16483473 cosmicj said:
Quote:
The 3rd and 4th picks just got a lot less valuable.

It’s going to be an exciting couple of days.


They wouldn't do it until LAC got qb (presumably JJM).
RE: RE: And Herbert's signed through 2029  
jeff57 : 4/24/2024 1:54 pm : link
In comment 16483662 Amtoft said:
Quote:
In comment 16483595 jeff57 said:


Quote:


But the dead cap hit for the Chargers is ridiculous. They couldn't afford to trade him. Link - ( New Window )



Trading and cutting are two different things. The dead cap would be if they cut him all his future guarantee years would have to be paid. However if you trade him his future guarantee money and deadcap money goes to the new team. Only his signing bonus and any roster bonuses already paid this year would accelerate to the cap this year. I mean I could be wrong, but I believe this is how it works.


I checked and it looks like remaining signing bonus and guaranteed money. But not positive.
RE: Virtually no way trade happens due to cap hit  
BleedBlue46 : 4/24/2024 1:55 pm : link
In comment 16483517 Shecky said:
Quote:
But, if they are entertaining the idea…

Giants trade 6th for Herbert. Chargers get JJM paired with a dynamic WR and 2025 + are in amazing cap situation…


Minnesota would obviously have to pay most of the caphit
RE: .  
bw in dc : 4/24/2024 1:56 pm : link
In comment 16483439 Danny Kanell said:
Quote:
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.


Overrated? Hmmm.

I'd love to see Harbaugh put his money where his big mouth is and actually do that. Let's see how much he thinks of McCarthy after all.

At which point, I would place an MVP wager once Herbert lands in Minnesota.
RE: RE: Might this just be Chargers make the pick then trade it  
BleedBlue46 : 4/24/2024 1:57 pm : link
In comment 16483651 Amtoft said:
Quote:
In comment 16483566 Lurts said:


Quote:


with a deal already in place?

Like Eli/Rivers.



You can't do that anymore.


They wouldn't be trading the qb they drafted...
RE: RE: Herbert overrated???  
santacruzom : 4/24/2024 2:46 pm : link
In comment 16483495 Danny Kanell said:
Quote:
In comment 16483470 bc4life said:


Quote:


Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022



That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.


I think Herbert's playoff performance was pretty damned good all things considered. He put up enough points to win, and then they surrendered enough points to lose.

I think we'll see Herbert re-emerge this year.
RE: trading Herbert to Vikes  
Jay on the Island : 4/24/2024 2:50 pm : link
In comment 16483455 bc4life said:
Quote:
BS. if they were going to trade him, they'd be shopping him for other offers. and why wait this late?

Trade a proven franchise QB to gamble on a rookie? - nfw

While I think it's BS maybe it is contingent upon McCarthy being there at 5. The Chargers would be foolish to trade Herbert before the draft and watch as the QB they were targeting goes before 5.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything  
nochance : 4/24/2024 3:39 pm : link
In comment 16483537 Anakim said:
Quote:
In comment 16483522 ThreePoints said:


Quote:


In comment 16483424 Anakim said:


Quote:


In comment 16483416 blueblood said:


Quote:


like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..



Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.



Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.

You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!

I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.




Duh. But the point is they know something that the average Joe doesn't. As a result, they will inflate (deflate) the odds based on that information. They don't just randomly and haphazardly change the odds. That would make for terrible bookmakers and would end up, yes, costing them money.



They set the odds to balance the books as best they can and keep all the vigs as the profit in a perfect world
RE: I don't want to hear about individual QB stats  
speedywheels : 4/24/2024 3:47 pm : link
In comment 16483694 djm said:
Quote:
as much as I want to see pts scored. Sure stats are nice and can be a indicator but end of the day, you're QB should be helping the offense score pts. Who cares how he does it as lng as the offense is scoring pts. What good is 30 passing Tds if the offense isn't scoring?

Chargers Pts scored:
2023-346
2022-391
2021-474 (impressive)
2020-383

Meh. Had a terrific skill set and by no means am I implying that Herbert isn't worthy of a starting job or serious investments, but to me, the pts scored aint all that and the guy has had a solid or better offensive supporting cast.

PS, the pts scored is getting worse.

I am sure some of you will find something to defend, but the guy aint all that. He needs to be better if you want to call him ELITE. Those stats and his W/L record say NOPE.

Eli led the Giants to 430 pts in 2015 and half this place said it was all Beckham and chucking and ducking. No OL. NO RBS. ONE WR. NO Defense. LEt me see Herbert score that many pts with such little help. HE won't, don't worry.


+1. Well said.

Keep in mind he put up those not-so-great scoring numbers with not one but TWO of the top WR's in the league, as well as one of the best all around RB's...
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