I was wrong. I thought this was a QB draft. I haven't been invested in a draft like this since 2004. It made sense to me that Schoen & Daboll would take the opportunity to draft a lottery QB this year. But, Schoen always has talked about sticking to his process. That's exactly what he did.
There are some posters I need to credit who I've challenged in the lead up.
christian - you were spot on. Schoen didn't change course so quickly after the Jones contract last year.
bw - Yes, I now completely agree with you that Jones is Schoen's guy. I'm tired of the Mara narrative. I don't believe Mara was vetoing any QB pick.
Ryan - great call with McCarthy. You felt it was smoke since day 1.
So, where does this leave the team? Schoen said last night he's happy to have a cost controlled WR for 5 years with Nabers talent. It's as simple as that.
I think Schoen did try to get Maye. I believe he offered a 2025 first as well. But, ultimately he told us the following:
-He likes Jones/Lock more than Penix.
-He likes Jones/Lock more than McCarthy.
-He likes Jones/Lock more than Nix.
Of the 15 first round grades, I assume the only 3 which had first round grades at QB were Williams, Daniels & Maye.
The Jones contract was always consequential. It was a significant contract. This wasn't a cheap deal and the 2 year out still has a $22M dead cap charge. When Schoen said he trusted his process, there was no reason to not believe him. This is where I was wrong. The contract was significant enough and the prior medical issues not concerning enough to change course so soon.
I do think Lock has a chance to start. Schneider had no reason to lie - the Seahawks wanted him back. So, I expect a QB competition, but Lock will have to clearly outperform Jones with Jones clearly struggling. I wouldn't bank on it, but I think Lock will have his chance.
I no longer think Schoen is in any trouble to lose his job. I think he's got ownership buy in and taking a slower and more methodical approach. I respect guys like Sy, JonC and The_Mike a great deal, all of which see the value in a WR1 here. I don't think Schoen is getting fired any time soon.
Where to go at QB from here? I've got no idea. It will be fascinating to see if Jones gets restructured. If he doesn't, I do think that is telling. Unlike some on BBI, I don't think the QB position "takes care of itself" - it's going to be a big challenge. Increasingly, I think the next QB will be a veteran starter. After the Penix pick, I could see Kirk Cousins in 2025. Dak Prescott. Someone like that.
Lastly, the positive I can come up with - the Knicks build. Leon Rose often got criticized for being too patient and not doing enough. Well, now I think this is going to be a longer build and Schoen will be patient. It's clear he wanted Maye but he's not going to force anything else and stick to the board. Will that patience ultimately pay off? We'll see. But, Schoen has a process it seems.
Nabers versus QB's available and the impact on 2024 season.
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Schoens job is on the line then. I don’t think he automatically gets a second “HC” or “QB” cycle.
You are preaching to the choir. Totally agree.
Last night was the second big opportunity for Schoen to pivot away from Jones. Instead, he put even more eggs in the basket.
I don't disagree that Schoen's job should be on the line, I just don't think it will be.
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if Barkley isn't playing, I have some bad news for you...
Yep. The only QB in the history of the NFL to have excuses made for him because he didn’t have his freakin RB in some games now no longer has that RB he so desperately relied on to make him look good. Now what?
They just drafted their new Barkley last night.
Let's see if they turn him into their new Kadarius Toney...
The depth isn’t really relevant to there being no more excuses for Jones though. Players get hurt. Thomas may get hurt again, maybe Slayton misses time. The Giants added Nabers and 3 Olineman so far this offseason. There’s no more “he needs x” to succeed.
Put up the numbers worthy of your cap hit.
he put up numbers worthy of the contract he got in 2022, he didnt in 2023. if we make 0 excuses for either can we accept that as fact?
in terms of $ jones is going to be somewhere between qb 13-15 by the time the season starts. would you sign for this right now in 2024?
4k passing + rushing yards,
22 passing + rushing tds,
6 ints (lowest int% in nfl)
6th best QBR
7th best EPA
that was his 2022 season in 16 games, just numbers, 0 excuses either way.
I trace a lot of my view on Schoen back to that 5th year option situation. That told me he was absolutely in charge of the Jones relationship moving forward. If Mara was leaning as hard as many suggest, I have no doubt Mara forces Schoen to exercise the option.
Instead, Schoen threw down the gauntlet on Team Jones and made 2022 a prove it year. And Jones did enough in 2022 to convince Schoen to offer the $160M deal.
I think last night was purely about Jones's health and the opportunity to buy insurance to cover that.
I posit that Schoen looked at Maye as a younger, healthier version of Jones and was willing to explore adding him. But I don't think it was really about a talent upgrade. When Schoen revealed two weeks ago that he went back to look at Jones's 2022 film to make sure he didn't miss anything, that told me he was very comfortable in bringing back Jones if healthy.
Because I don't care how talented Nabers might be, JMac and Penix are clearly more talented than Jones at the most critical position in sports. But Schoen didn't blink. His message is Jones is more talented than Penix, JMac, and Nix even with ALL of the injuries.
That is a loud an resonating message - to me.
Schoen’s message is that Jones and Nabers is more valuable moving forward and than JJ, Penix and Nix without Nabers. Can’t just leave Nabers out of the equation altogether.
I don't disagree that Schoen's job should be on the line, I just don't think it will be.
I can buy that, too.
I think we are in unchartered waters here. A lottery QB getting a sixth season with his original team despite never having anywhere near a great season. It's incredible...
Tua and maybe Lawrence get extended?
There’s no reason for him not to be around 3800-4000 passing yards. Even Howell did that last year.
A repeat of 2022 probably has the Giants picking 6th again. They won’t have the smoke and mirrors of the first 6 weeks of 2022 to keep them afloat.
They just drafted their new Barkley last night.
That is a very interesting way of looking at it.
Are you concluding that WRs are now just as commoditized as RBs?
Got it.
Intelligent people ignore what people say and focus on what they do. All teams use the beats this time of year to plant shit. I think the Giants executed exactly what they were attempting to do.
I think Nabers was the number 1 player on their board and they did everything they could to disguise it.
Very happy about that.
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The depth isn’t really relevant to there being no more excuses for Jones though. Players get hurt. Thomas may get hurt again, maybe Slayton misses time. The Giants added Nabers and 3 Olineman so far this offseason. There’s no more “he needs x” to succeed.
Put up the numbers worthy of your cap hit.
he put up numbers worthy of the contract he got in 2022, he didnt in 2023. if we make 0 excuses for either can we accept that as fact?
in terms of $ jones is going to be somewhere between qb 13-15 by the time the season starts. would you sign for this right now in 2024?
4k passing + rushing yards,
22 passing + rushing tds,
6 ints (lowest int% in nfl)
6th best QBR
7th best EPA
that was his 2022 season in 16 games, just numbers, 0 excuses either way.
No that doesn't warrant the 18-20% cap hit. I'm moving on without question even with the 20 million dead cap hit the following year.
You need more from your QB to consistently win and ultimately contend. You can easily find that production elsewhere for a fraction of the cost.
Not a comparison of Allen/Jones but when Diggs was added, JA went from 3100 yards to 4500 yards. Diggs: 127c/1535y/12.1
I am hoping for just over 4k yards and a big improvement with the RB production in the run game with more use of TE's.
If the plan is to limit the QBs responsibility and build a great team around him, fine. It's not the best plan, but it does have logic. Don't pay $40 M for that. It's a $10M job. And draft guys in the middle rounds so you can train them. They can do the job for $2 M
- Don't exercise the 5th year option
- Reverse course - sign him to long term contract
- Invest heavily in the Pre Draft capital to research QBs
This plan is all over the place
That unsustainable low TO rate is driving the good all in one metrics that Jones cultists love to point to.
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They just drafted their new Barkley last night.
That is a very interesting way of looking at it.
Are you concluding that WRs are now just as commoditized as RBs?
Not quite, but it's getting there.
And regarding Nabers specifically my prediction is that his impact won't nearly be what the fans make it out to be.
But hey I could be wrong. Maybe they score 27 PPG this year and I look like a dumbass.
I think it is more accurate based on what you are saying to put it this way...
"The Giants are interested in moving on from Daniel Jones when the opportunity presents itself."
"When the absolutely perfect and 100% guaranteed opportunity presents itself" may be more accurate
- Don't exercise the 5th year option
- Reverse course - sign him to long term contract
- Invest heavily in the Pre Draft capital to research QBs
This plan is all over the place
bw nails it imo. Once Schoen signed Jones, the plan was clear. Schoen dared Jones to perform in 2022, and he met Schoen's expectations.
It's time we all believe what Schoen tells us.
Tua and maybe Lawrence get extended?
and goff. rodgers is below him but i think that's artificial bc of the trade, he extended at $50m+ and the contract is still active. russ' dead money is higher. i think dak may be tied with him or below him but his hit is $60m this year.
there's no perfect apples/apples way to do it but i think by the end of this offseason he will be close to the midpoint.
There’s no reason for him not to be around 3800-4000 passing yards. Even Howell did that last year.
A repeat of 2022 probably has the Giants picking 6th again. They won’t have the smoke and mirrors of the first 6 weeks of 2022 to keep them afloat.
why are we comparing him to a non-running qb?
lamar threw for fewer yards/ypg than howell last year too. for his career lamar averages 185 passing yards per game + 61 ypg rushing = 245 total. jones career average is 209 pypg + 32 rypg.
twisting stats doesn't make jones lamar jackson any more than he's sam howell (who threw for slightly more yardage but with 3x as many turnovers 21 ints).
Lamar still threw for 3700 yards last year, which isn’t far off from the 3800-4000 threshold I laid out, and if he played week 17 he would have been in the 3800-4000 range. If you want to compare running QB to “running QB”. The difference is, defenses don’t respect Jones’ running game like they have to do Lamar’s.
From the second half of 2022 on the league has done pretty well to shut down Jones ability to run.
It’s not asking too much for Jones to be in the 3800-4000 range as a passer alone.
and like i said rodgers/wilson sort of factor in somehow since they both signed at $50m+, were active contracts when Jones signed, and remain "alive" contracts now, they just got modified. Denver is eating $85m of dead money for RW the next 2 years which could end up more than jones gets from the nyg.
Why would a repeat of Jones’ 2022 year be acceptable?
Lamar still threw for 3700 yards last year, which isn’t far off from the 3800-4000 threshold I laid out, and if he played week 17 he would have been in the 3800-4000 range. If you want to compare running QB to “running QB”. The difference is, defenses don’t respect Jones’ running game like they have to do Lamar’s.
From the second half of 2022 on the league has done pretty well to shut down Jones ability to run.
It’s not asking too much for Jones to be in the 3800-4000 range as a passer alone.
it's not asking too much and nowhere did i say he cant/shouldnt be expected to do it.
you are choosing an arbitrary single stat and trying to make a hyperbolic comparison to howell as an excuse to say that what he did in 2022 wasn't good enough when in reality the difference isn't that big and if you look at the numbers, as he improved over the season he showed he could pass for the exact yardage you are looking for.
in the second half of 2022 when barkley slumped and they found 3 decent receivers they attempted more passes and jones threw for more yardage than he did early in the season (including per attempt, and including more tds, so not just empty volume).
he averaged 225 ypg in the last 8 games at 7 ay/a which is exactly what you say you are looking for. maybe lets just bring this full circle and agree that's a perfectly fair expectation for him year since he's shown he can do it? no excuses?
I think the issue might be with the word "reasonably". It appears that regarding QB it's full bloom love or bust. I'd place the odds on Jones being the starter on opening day 2025 over 50%, and only that low because of his neck.
You’re completing missing the point, it’s not comparing him to Sam Howell. The only QBs who started 16 or 17 games who didn’t hit 3800 passing yards were Lamar who missed by barely over 100 yards, and Bryce Young.
So again, Jones 2022 numbers wouldn’t be acceptable. If he’s getting starting QB money he should be able to hit the bottom of the starting QB passing yard list, regardless of what he does as a runner.
You’re completing missing the point, it’s not comparing him to Sam Howell. The only QBs who started 16 or 17 games who didn’t hit 3800 passing yards were Lamar who missed by barely over 100 yards, and Bryce Young.
So again, Jones 2022 numbers wouldn’t be acceptable. If he’s getting starting QB money he should be able to hit the bottom of the starting QB passing yard list, regardless of what he does as a runner.
im not missing the point you are, but ill give it one last try.
would you take his 2022 numbers but throwing for 225 ypg instead of 210? 225 ypg = 3825 yards.
i told you in my previous post that's a perfectly reason expectation. +15 ypg passing by itself is statistically almost meaningless, so meaningless it's literally the 3 extra attempts = 2 extra completions they shifted to in the 2nd half of 2022 even when they didnt have nabers/hyatt/robinson that didnt change any observer's opinions of jones by much, but if that's the arbitrary metric hill you want to die on fine with me.
so no excuses, 2022 numbers but with 3800+ passing yards, is that a fair expectation?
Looks like he's tied for 10th. At signing he was tied for 7th in the major categories.
In the interim, some guys have moved out, some in.
If Jones has a solid year in 2024, I'd be shocked if he didn't get a new deal or hold out, and be squarely back in the top 10.
Also, your comment that he sees Jones/Lock>jjm,penix,Nix is missing a crucial piece. He sees Jones/Lock and Nabers as better than Jones/Lock/JJMorPenixorNix.
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he's tied for 12th in aav with stafford and dak. tua, goff, and maybe lawrence extensions still to come this offseason.
Looks like he's tied for 10th. At signing he was tied for 7th in the major categories.
In the interim, some guys have moved out, some in.
If Jones has a solid year in 2024, I'd be shocked if he didn't get a new deal or hold out, and be squarely back in the top 10.
im not a statistician but if there are 3 guys tied for 10th and 12 players total isnt the common ranking of the 3 tied for 10 to be t-12th?
and again 3 more possible extensions to come that will all be higher, and 2 players with artifact contracts still hitting caps that were in total not just a little more but $50m AAV that were at the time of signing jones last year the top 2 QB AAVs.
are cap games more important to the conversation or some common sense? aaron rodgers and russell wilsons contracts that are currently paying them were clearly bigger than jones' correct?
But Daboll is the first coach since Coughlin to get a third year, a poor year might mean getting fired, Jones is getting the balance of the 82M in guarantees, and is the presumptive starter.
Seems like the guy to me.
If Jones hit 3800 passing yards with still only 22 total touchdowns, that likely still wouldn’t be enough to make the Giants successful.
3800 yards
32 total TDs
Turnover rate that’s slightly higher than 2022 given it’ll take more shots downfield, but lower than 2019.
That should be the bare minimum expectation for Jones.
Schoen’s message is that Jones and Nabers is more valuable moving forward and than JJ, Penix and Nix without Nabers. Can’t just leave Nabers out of the equation altogether.
When you have an agenda like bw, you most certainly leave that fact out...
Since he's being paid tenth most, maybe a good baseline would be 10th in yards, TDs, etc. I'm including rushing since that is a major component of Jones' game. That would be, based on 2023 numbers:
10th: 4734 yards, 30 TDs (again, combined passing+rushing)
15th: 3918 yards, 25 TDs
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/rushing-and-receiving-yards
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/total-touchdowns
Why would a repeat of Jones’ 2022 year be acceptable?
It absolutely would not be acceptable.
Since he's being paid tenth most, maybe a good baseline would be 10th in yards, TDs, etc. I'm including rushing since that is a major component of Jones' game. That would be, based on 2023 numbers:
10th: 4734 yards, 30 TDs (again, combined passing+rushing)
15th: 3918 yards, 25 TDs
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/rushing-and-receiving-yards
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/total-touchdowns
Pretty inline with what I’ve been saying. A repeat of 2022 would not be a good outcome for the Giants. He’s supposed to be improving while on the new contract.
Since he's being paid tenth most, maybe a good baseline would be 10th in yards, TDs, etc. I'm including rushing since that is a major component of Jones' game. That would be, based on 2023 numbers:
10th: 4734 yards, 30 TDs (again, combined passing+rushing)
15th: 3918 yards, 25 TDs
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/rushing-and-receiving-yards
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/total-touchdowns
this is basic but perfectly reasonable.
his 2022 combined ypg was 245 (*17 games) = 4165
his 2022 combined td per game were 1.375 (*17 games) = 23.375
increase the passing yards +15 per game = 4400
by week 1 there will be 12-15 QBs being paid by teams who signed or traded for them on contracts that were higher AAV.
these are all very basic parameters for assessing his performance if we want to keep it simple and not argue "excuses" either way. for any bad stat that may increase (turnovers) any good stat will have to increase (ypg, tds, whatever).
if every stat goes in the toilet like 2023 that will be not good - and to get us back OT with the thread, apparently schoen/dabs are comfortable enough betting their jobs on that not happening.
and again 3 more possible extensions to come that will all be higher, and 2 players with artifact contracts still hitting caps that were in total not just a little more but $50m AAV that were at the time of signing jones last year the top 2 QB AAVs.
are cap games more important to the conversation or some common sense? aaron rodgers and russell wilsons contracts that are currently paying them were clearly bigger than jones' correct?
In school I was taught the trick 'if you and I tie for the fastest, we tie for first not second.'
If comp order is a proxy for confidence, Jones is comfortably in the confidence zone.
From opening day 2023, he's straddled the top 3rd highest paid starting QBs. He might dip by a slot or two this year. But if he has a good year he'll certainly be back in next year.
What his compensation is not, is a vote of no confidence.
YAY US
5k Yards and lose
NFW
My hope is that I go into each week thinking we can win and the games are competitive.
This describes 2022.
I want to win SBs yes but you usually don't go from shit to SB.
At the end of 2022 Jones was described as an ascending player by many.
They signed him to the contract.
The same people that flipped out about the contract are the same people flipping out today.
It didn't go the way they thought it should.
Apparently they want to try again with some protection.
I am hoping they are right.
I would have taken McCarthy.
They have more information than I.
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My 2 cents on what expectations for Jones should be.
Since he's being paid tenth most, maybe a good baseline would be 10th in yards, TDs, etc. I'm including rushing since that is a major component of Jones' game. That would be, based on 2023 numbers:
10th: 4734 yards, 30 TDs (again, combined passing+rushing)
15th: 3918 yards, 25 TDs
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/rushing-and-receiving-yards
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/total-touchdowns
this is basic but perfectly reasonable.
his 2022 combined ypg was 245 (*17 games) = 4165
his 2022 combined td per game were 1.375 (*17 games) = 23.375
increase the passing yards +15 per game = 4400
by week 1 there will be 12-15 QBs being paid by teams who signed or traded for them on contracts that were higher AAV.
these are all very basic parameters for assessing his performance if we want to keep it simple and not argue "excuses" either way. for any bad stat that may increase (turnovers) any good stat will have to increase (ypg, tds, whatever).
if every stat goes in the toilet like 2023 that will be not good - and to get us back OT with the thread, apparently schoen/dabs are comfortable enough betting their jobs on that not happening.
One other note, QBs playing outdoors in the northeast historically haven't put up the passing numbers to match those playing in domes or warm/nice weather cities. Expectations of passing yards probably need to be adjusted down for a QB playing in the winds of the meadowlands.
If Jones craps out in 24, I would bet the Giants use that soon to be available money from Jones and sign a vet QB. Highly likely some decent or better vet QBs will be available either via FA or trade.
Let's say they go 7-10 this season. Jones has ups and downs but not enough ups to warrant anymore faith, that's a team ripe for a bold move at QB.
The options are slim in the vet market.
With all due respect, there is nothing reasonable about this take other than they tried to move up, were rejected BY THE Pats, and pivoted.
We need to stop aligning so much credibility or credence to a poster's inside take. Especially some new guy who literally joined up this month. Not that this matters. Entertaining any so called scoop is one thing. Building an entire narrative and belief system on it is kind of silly or worse.
If Mara is blocking the GM from making a bold move at QB why the fuck even bother. And I have news for you, Schoen wouldn't bother either. HE likely never even comes here in the first place if he knew the owner would QB cock block him at every turn.
This shit needs to be put to bed.
The options are slim in the vet market.
Yeah, it's really Dak or bust for 2025, because I've heard Goff is about to sign an extension. This leads me to believe that Jones won't have to get far to play himself into being the 2025 starter.
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I don’t think Lawrence will be available for trade. Maybe Goff if the Lions like Hooker?
The options are slim in the vet market.
Yeah, it's really Dak or bust for 2025, because I've heard Goff is about to sign an extension. This leads me to believe that Jones won't have to get far to play himself into being the 2025 starter.
A poor season could also mean he’s the starter in 2025 which is terrifying.
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Schoens job is on the line then. I don’t think he automatically gets a second “HC” or “QB” cycle.
You are preaching to the choir. Totally agree.
Last night was the second big opportunity for Schoen to pivot away from Jones. Instead, he put even more eggs in the basket.
Didn't you imply or flat out say that Mara forces Schoen's hand in regards to Jones and the QB?
I'll answer for you. You did. Numerous times. Which kind of makes this post a bit......inconsistent.
Didn't you imply or flat out say that Mara forces Schoen's hand in regards to Jones and the QB?
I'll answer for you. You did. Numerous times. Which kind of makes this post a bit......inconsistent.
Not for Jones - no. I have consistently said Schoen owns the Jones contract/decision.
Russell Wilson will probably hit the FA market again.
some players deeper into contracts could become available as buy lows (kyler and watson come to mind).
cousins and/or penix could shake free if the other wins the job.
baker, carr, geno could all get cut.
carolina new regime could decide to give up on bryce young.
lawrence could become available if they dont want to extend him. or if pederson gets fired and they bring in a new HC.
the best place to get a QB will always be the draft but more and more we are seeing meaningful starter veteran movement when there used to be none.
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I don’t think Lawrence will be available for trade. Maybe Goff if the Lions like Hooker?
The options are slim in the vet market.
Yeah, it's really Dak or bust for 2025, because I've heard Goff is about to sign an extension. This leads me to believe that Jones won't have to get far to play himself into being the 2025 starter.
I'm not so sure. As I think on this more, I do think there needs to be more nuance in the discussion. There are a few things we know:
1. Lock was told he would be competing just a job when he signed here. Seattle had zero reason to lie, they wanted him back.
2. NYG tried to trade up for Maye.
3. Jones in 2024 would have to stay healthy AND play himself onto a $47M cap hit on 2025.
4. NYG was stuck with Jones in 2024 no matter what financially.
JonC and Rickey both have said Nabers has nothing to do with Jones. We'll see.
I think Schoen and Daboll like Jones for 2024, but him playing on that 2025 cap hit will be a difficult task for Jones imo.