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What are your "Eat Crow" 2024 Benchmarks for Jones?

Lambuth_Special : 4/26/2024 1:34 pm
I'm not a Jones guy, but I'll be pleasantly surprised and humbled if he hits the following (very modest) marks this season:

-Starts more than 8 games
-Has a .500 record or greater

AND

-is ranked above average in any one of the following advanced metrics: EPA/per play, QBR, or DVOA.

I try to stay away from conventional stats, otherwise you end up in a Sam Howell scenario where the numbers look good but the performance was bad.

I think all of these are very reasonable expectations. However, the one season he ranked above average in advanced metrics (2022), most all of that was due to running. I can't really see that coming off a torn ACL.

If he can't hit these marks, I fail to see the point of continuing, but I'm sure the FO will find a reason to.
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It's year six...  
bw in dc : 4/27/2024 10:18 am : link
for a lottery QB on his lucrative second contract.

Year six. And I'm still reading posters say they will basically settle for x,y or z at this point with Jones.

Year six.

This may be the most bizarre situation I've seen in professional team sports.

Last night, someone started a thread anticipating all of the excuses we could hear for Jones in 2024. I thought it was hilarious and spot on. Of course, the sanctimonious BBI vultures swept in and disparaged it.

Well, that's exactly where I am heading into 2024. I want a year of NO EXCUSES for our $160M man...
Top 10 Statistical QB in the NFL  
KennyHill48 : 4/27/2024 10:25 am : link
Jones is in the top 10 QBs in the NFL in terms of contract AAV. He needs to have statistics in 2024 equal to a Top 10 QB in the NFL. That is the bar.
RE: It's year six...  
cosmicj : 4/27/2024 10:29 am : link
In comment 16494575 bw in dc said:
Quote:
for a lottery QB on his lucrative second contract.

Year six. And I'm still reading posters say they will basically settle for x,y or z at this point with Jones.

Year six.

This may be the most bizarre situation I've seen in professional team sports.

Last night, someone started a thread anticipating all of the excuses we could hear for Jones in 2024. I thought it was hilarious and spot on. Of course, the sanctimonious BBI vultures swept in and disparaged it.

Well, that's exactly where I am heading into 2024. I want a year of NO EXCUSES for our $160M man...


Bw , I’m beyond this. If Jones delivers a good year in 2024, I won’t believe it projects and has any implications after that season. And I think you’re in the same place.
RE: It's year six...  
Go Terps : 4/27/2024 10:55 am : link
In comment 16494575 bw in dc said:
Quote:
for a lottery QB on his lucrative second contract.

Year six. And I'm still reading posters say they will basically settle for x,y or z at this point with Jones.

Year six.

This may be the most bizarre situation I've seen in professional team sports.

Last night, someone started a thread anticipating all of the excuses we could hear for Jones in 2024. I thought it was hilarious and spot on. Of course, the sanctimonious BBI vultures swept in and disparaged it.

Well, that's exactly where I am heading into 2024. I want a year of NO EXCUSES for our $160M man...


It's hard to recall an instance where the QB situation was this poorly managed over such an extended period of time. And I can't recall a QB this poor getting this much opportunity. There aren't any comparable situations that I can recall.
RE: RE: It's year six...  
Lambuth_Special : 4/27/2024 11:01 am : link
In comment 16494648 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16494575 bw in dc said:


Quote:


for a lottery QB on his lucrative second contract.

Year six. And I'm still reading posters say they will basically settle for x,y or z at this point with Jones.

Year six.

This may be the most bizarre situation I've seen in professional team sports.

Last night, someone started a thread anticipating all of the excuses we could hear for Jones in 2024. I thought it was hilarious and spot on. Of course, the sanctimonious BBI vultures swept in and disparaged it.

Well, that's exactly where I am heading into 2024. I want a year of NO EXCUSES for our $160M man...



It's hard to recall an instance where the QB situation was this poorly managed over such an extended period of time. And I can't recall a QB this poor getting this much opportunity. There aren't any comparable situations that I can recall.


Jake Plummer in Arizona, and Alex Smith in SF until his breakout Harbaugh season in 2011 are the only two that come to mind.

But SF also benched Smith several times throughout the start of his career.
here's a blind resume test - does anyone take this season?  
Eric on Li : 4/27/2024 11:04 am : link
61%
17 tds
5 ints (best int% in nfl)
3400 passing yards (7.3 ay/a, 200 ypg)
200 rushing yards, 2 rushing tds

some hints, it's an age 27 QB's 6th season and his team went from 6 wins to 13 wins and a 5 ppg improvement from 19 ppg to 24 ppg. first year, first time nfl head coach too.
I think the Steelers are in a tricky situation  
Sean : 4/27/2024 11:12 am : link
Declined the 5th year option and now what if Fields wins the starting job and produces? That would be comparable to Jones if they then paid him $40M per year. It would be more his second team though.

I also don't know what Chicago would do if they didn't have the first pick.

People don't take into account how impactful the lack of QBs in the 2022 lottery led to this. It's easy to praise Peters in WSH, he had a much easier entry than Schoen.

Eric on LI made a great post about going over the opportunities Schoen had to go QB. This was his biggest opportunity this year and he passed.
RE: here's a blind resume test - does anyone take this season?  
Lambuth_Special : 4/27/2024 11:16 am : link
In comment 16494663 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
61%
17 tds
5 ints (best int% in nfl)
3400 passing yards (7.3 ay/a, 200 ypg)
200 rushing yards, 2 rushing tds

some hints, it's an age 27 QB's 6th season and his team went from 6 wins to 13 wins and a 5 ppg improvement from 19 ppg to 24 ppg. first year, first time nfl head coach too.


Is that Alex Smith under Harbaugh? I would take that performance. I’m not hung up on conventional stats as much, I just like being efficient and getting enough touchdown drives, whether they are finished through the air or on the ground doesn’t matter much to me.

Troy Aikman exemplifies this for me. His stats were underwhelming even in the context of the 90s, but he always moved those Cowboys teams down the field.
RE: RE: here's a blind resume test - does anyone take this season?  
Eric on Li : 4/27/2024 11:22 am : link
In comment 16494683 Lambuth_Special said:
Quote:
In comment 16494663 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


61%
17 tds
5 ints (best int% in nfl)
3400 passing yards (7.3 ay/a, 200 ypg)
200 rushing yards, 2 rushing tds

some hints, it's an age 27 QB's 6th season and his team went from 6 wins to 13 wins and a 5 ppg improvement from 19 ppg to 24 ppg. first year, first time nfl head coach too.



Is that Alex Smith under Harbaugh? I would take that performance. I’m not hung up on conventional stats as much, I just like being efficient and getting enough touchdown drives, whether they are finished through the air or on the ground doesn’t matter much to me.

Troy Aikman exemplifies this for me. His stats were underwhelming even in the context of the 90s, but he always moved those Cowboys teams down the field.


correct. alex smith's first winning year, only his second with a full 16 starts, his first with 3k+ yards.

basically what jones did in 2022 first year w/ daboll. except a better defense.
 
christian : 4/27/2024 11:36 am : link
And after that year the 49ers drafted a QB with pick 36, and Alex Smith played 9 more games for 49ers despite getting extended.

I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.

I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.

I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.
RE: …  
Sean : 4/27/2024 11:40 am : link
In comment 16494723 christian said:
Quote:
And after that year the 49ers drafted a QB with pick 36, and Alex Smith played 9 more games for 49ers despite getting extended.

I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.

I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.

I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.

The main question now becomes what does Jones need to do to play on the 2025 cap hit of $47M?
RE: …  
Lambuth_Special : 4/27/2024 11:43 am : link
In comment 16494723 christian said:
Quote:
And after that year the 49ers drafted a QB with pick 36, and Alex Smith played 9 more games for 49ers despite getting extended.

I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.

I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.

I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.


Both Alex Smith and Jake Plummer are in some respects good examples of both sides benefitting from a separation. 49ers went to a SB with Kap, but also the Chiefs set up their baby steps toward dominance with Reid through those early Smith years.

Mike Shanahan had a couple of good years with Plummer in Denver, and the Cardinals eventually settled on Kurt Warner and went to a SB. Food for thought for the Giants FO that is somehow both afraid of moving on and of ‘failing’ Jones
RE: RE: …  
Eric on Li : 4/27/2024 11:50 am : link
In comment 16494732 Sean said:
Quote:
In comment 16494723 christian said:


Quote:


And after that year the 49ers drafted a QB with pick 36, and Alex Smith played 9 more games for 49ers despite getting extended.

I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.

I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.

I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.


The main question now becomes what does Jones need to do to play on the 2025 cap hit of $47M?


the answer to that is simple - he needs to be their preferred QB option among whatever else is available to them. same as this draft they apparently thought maye was a better option but jjm/et al werent. same as prior offseasons when willis/trubisky/carr/etc werent.

next offseason the same assessment will take place with jones vs whoever is on FA market (fields, russ, dak, etc), plus draft/trade markets. next year's trade market could get interesting with guys like watson, kyler, bryce young, who knows maybe even lawrence.

for now i think the plan is repeat 2022 or better with jones because that creates the most value. another 2022 for jones would make him a trade asset.
35 TD passes  
RasputinPrime : 4/27/2024 11:51 am : link
and he starts every game in the regular season and post-season.
RE: RE: …  
Eric on Li : 4/27/2024 11:52 am : link
In comment 16494738 Lambuth_Special said:
Quote:
In comment 16494723 christian said:


Quote:


And after that year the 49ers drafted a QB with pick 36, and Alex Smith played 9 more games for 49ers despite getting extended.

I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.

I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.

I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.



Both Alex Smith and Jake Plummer are in some respects good examples of both sides benefitting from a separation. 49ers went to a SB with Kap, but also the Chiefs set up their baby steps toward dominance with Reid through those early Smith years.

Mike Shanahan had a couple of good years with Plummer in Denver, and the Cardinals eventually settled on Kurt Warner and went to a SB. Food for thought for the Giants FO that is somehow both afraid of moving on and of ‘failing’ Jones


i dont think thats it. i think there have been some bad QB drafts until this one, and in this one they couldnt get their guy. the 49ers traded smith after drafting/developing kap. i could see something similar here. if jones has another really bad year like last year i think they would move on independently but right now clearly they like him enough to not want to do that. they still believe in what they believed in last year.
Duggan expects NYG to be in QB1 market next year  
Sean : 4/27/2024 11:58 am : link
Quote:
Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Still wouldn't like it. Giants are very likely going to be in the market for a QB1 in next year's draft. So why use a pick this year on a developmental QB? The Day 3 QB flier makes more sense for a team with an established starter looking for a cheap backup. The Giants' fourth-round pick could play a lot of snaps in 2024 at another position
.....  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2024 12:00 pm : link
Lead a top ten offense. Be top ten in production (TD/yards) for a QB.
We don’t know if any of JJM, Penix or Nix will be any good, but it’s  
Jim in Hoboken : 4/27/2024 12:00 pm : link
depressing to think we could be passing on Herbert, and any of the 3 because of a 15-TD throwing QB.

Last year was a shock to the system with a much tougjer schedule and the opponents taking away the 1-read and run scheme Daboll got away with in 2022. If Daboll can’t adjust with a much better cast surrounding his QB of choice in 2024, then he deserves to go with Jones.
RE: Duggan expects NYG to be in QB1 market next year  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2024 12:01 pm : link
In comment 16494797 Sean said:
Quote:


Quote:


Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Still wouldn't like it. Giants are very likely going to be in the market for a QB1 in next year's draft. So why use a pick this year on a developmental QB? The Day 3 QB flier makes more sense for a team with an established starter looking for a cheap backup. The Giants' fourth-round pick could play a lot of snaps in 2024 at another position



I don't agree with this thinking at all. Guys like Dak and Cousins and Hurts wouldn't have been picked with that logic. While the guy is most likely a bust, it's a cheap call option.
RE: Duggan expects NYG to be in QB1 market next year  
cosmicj : 4/27/2024 12:33 pm : link
In comment 16494797 Sean said:
Quote:


Quote:


Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Still wouldn't like it. Giants are very likely going to be in the market for a QB1 in next year's draft. So why use a pick this year on a developmental QB? The Day 3 QB flier makes more sense for a team with an established starter looking for a cheap backup. The Giants' fourth-round pick could play a lot of snaps in 2024 at another position



Baffled by Duggan’s logic here. We have a need at QB. It’s that simple.
There are no words for this  
Jerry in_DC : 4/27/2024 1:08 pm : link
Hundreds of QBs have come through the league in the past 30 years. Literally nine of them have been as bad as Daniel and been handed 6 years of starts. Never happened. But it does for Daniel.

As preposterous as his salary is, the years are worse. We all get a finite number of Giants seasons. Daniel continues to ruin them by virtue of being a professional looking white guy who shows up to work on time. Truly a sad state of affairs.

Giants fans have had some great moments in our lives. But we deserve a lot better than this. We deserve a team that wants to win as much as we do. At least tries to win. Instead we have an organization dedicated to the personal fulfillment and financial enrichment of Daniel because he looks the way a QB should look and he is effective at brown nosing ownership and management.
RE: There are no words for this  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2024 1:15 pm : link
In comment 16495145 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
Hundreds of QBs have come through the league in the past 30 years. Literally nine of them have been as bad as Daniel and been handed 6 years of starts. Never happened. But it does for Daniel.

As preposterous as his salary is, the years are worse. We all get a finite number of Giants seasons. Daniel continues to ruin them by virtue of being a professional looking white guy who shows up to work on time. Truly a sad state of affairs.

Giants fans have had some great moments in our lives. But we deserve a lot better than this. We deserve a team that wants to win as much as we do. At least tries to win. Instead we have an organization dedicated to the personal fulfillment and financial enrichment of Daniel because he looks the way a QB should look and he is effective at brown nosing ownership and management.


How many years of evidence do we need that Jones can't produce at a high level? Guys who can't throw touchdowns don't win Super Bowls. Keeping him around for year six just isn't serious. It's like keeping Dave Gettleman for four years. It's indicative of a franchise that just wants to compete for a playoff spot once in a while.
 
christian : 4/27/2024 1:26 pm : link
I'm afraid the Jones contract mistake put Schoen on the hunt for the perfect quarterback.

I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.

I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.

And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.
Theoretical question - if jones plays well enough they can trade him  
Eric on Li : 4/27/2024 1:31 pm : link
Does that constitute crow eating? Let’s say that happens with a carbon copy of the 2022 season, they get a WC, and similar to Leonard Williams they can get a day 2 pick. Is that a positive outcome? Are 2 wild cards and a draft pick worth 82m?
 
christian : 4/27/2024 1:40 pm : link
The first wildcard didn't come on the 82M tab.

So one wild card and a day two pick? I'm not sure I'd say worth it, but mitigating, sure.
RE: …  
gidiefor : Mod : 4/27/2024 1:43 pm : link
In comment 16495216 christian said:
Quote:
I'm afraid the Jones contract mistake put Schoen on the hunt for the perfect quarterback.

I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.

I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.

And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.


you logic continues to be flawed

What you are basically saying here is that the failure to pick any QB -- even if possible reasons are they didn't think the available picks represented an improvement, and/or were best pick, and/or even if they had no conviction on available QBs = being risk averse?

really -- I think we need a refresher course in basic logic
RE: …  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2024 1:48 pm : link
In comment 16495216 christian said:
Quote:
I'm afraid the Jones contract mistake put Schoen on the hunt for the perfect quarterback.

I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.

I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.

And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.


My guess is the Giants are relatively binary in their QB evaluation process. Binary yes/nos rather than view it probabilistically.

I don't know which is better, tbh.
RE: There are no words for this  
Route 9 : 4/27/2024 1:51 pm : link
In comment 16495145 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
Daniel continues to ruin them by virtue of being a professional looking white guy who shows up to work on time. Truly a sad state of affairs.


Now you got me rooting for Jones to have a good season and shut the haters up. Great job.
RE: Theoretical question - if jones plays well enough they can trade him  
Lambuth_Special : 4/27/2024 2:00 pm : link
In comment 16495234 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Does that constitute crow eating? Let’s say that happens with a carbon copy of the 2022 season, they get a WC, and similar to Leonard Williams they can get a day 2 pick. Is that a positive outcome? Are 2 wild cards and a draft pick worth 82m?


More are less this is where I’m at. My OP had modest standards for eating crow, because I flat out believe he’s shot as a Giant. I’ll take any signs of life at this point.
RE: RE: Duggan expects NYG to be in QB1 market next year  
BH28 : 4/27/2024 2:02 pm : link
In comment 16494808 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
In comment 16494797 Sean said:


Quote:




Quote:


Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Still wouldn't like it. Giants are very likely going to be in the market for a QB1 in next year's draft. So why use a pick this year on a developmental QB? The Day 3 QB flier makes more sense for a team with an established starter looking for a cheap backup. The Giants' fourth-round pick could play a lot of snaps in 2024 at another position





I don't agree with this thinking at all. Guys like Dak and Cousins and Hurts wouldn't have been picked with that logic. While the guy is most likely a bust, it's a cheap call option.


I agree with it. Once you get into day 3 with QBs the hit rate is extremely poor. And since the goal is to win SBs, how many day 3 QBs have won a super bowl? Drafting a guy like Cousins makes us better, but the next step is, how do we ditch a guy like Cousins to find someone who can take us to the next level?

Those next level guys are typically first and second round QBs.

So yeah, if we need next level talent, no point in taking a guy today.
RE: RE: …  
Lambuth_Special : 4/27/2024 2:06 pm : link
In comment 16495303 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
In comment 16495216 christian said:


Quote:


I'm afraid the Jones contract mistake put Schoen on the hunt for the perfect quarterback.

I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.

I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.

And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.



My guess is the Giants are relatively binary in their QB evaluation process. Binary yes/nos rather than view it probabilistically.

I don't know which is better, tbh.


what concerns me regarding this is that the Giants seem to not engage in even basic levels of analysis with Jones. It’s all “he has a good attitude and is tough.”

His stats in home games are dismal. It’s where he plays half his games every season! But I would be willing to bet no one in the Giants organization is even aware of it, much less that they’ve tried to analyze why his home splits are bad. He’s just a guy they like and believe in and that’s that.
RE: RE: RE: …  
BH28 : 4/27/2024 2:21 pm : link
In comment 16495361 Lambuth_Special said:
Quote:
In comment 16495303 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


In comment 16495216 christian said:


Quote:


I'm afraid the Jones contract mistake put Schoen on the hunt for the perfect quarterback.

I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.

I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.

And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.



My guess is the Giants are relatively binary in their QB evaluation process. Binary yes/nos rather than view it probabilistically.

I don't know which is better, tbh.



what concerns me regarding this is that the Giants seem to not engage in even basic levels of analysis with Jones. It’s all “he has a good attitude and is tough.”

His stats in home games are dismal. It’s where he plays half his games every season! But I would be willing to bet no one in the Giants organization is even aware of it, much less that they’ve tried to analyze why his home splits are bad. He’s just a guy they like and believe in and that’s that.


I'm not sure if it's the evaluation process, I look at it more of a contingency planning process. The Giants are terrible at it.

As an engineer, we have a saying, "Hope for the best, plan for the worst." It seems the Giants too often leave out the, "plan for the worst" portion of it.

Nate Solder sucks? Oh, he'll rebound next year.
Daniel Jones can't possibly have a worse year than 2023, so he'll rebound.

Hoping for the best is a terrible strategy to have and it seems that is too often the Giants strategy.

This is why I don't understand the Falcons getting shit for the Penix pick. It's a great contingency strategy. If Cousins outplays his contract, awesome. If not, you can pivot to young guy. The odds are more likely than not that Cousins is going to stumble due to age and injury.

I wish the Giants were more forward thinking in contingency planning for the QB room. The Lock signing almost feels like a guy they picked up to NOT directly compete with Jones.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 4/27/2024 2:36 pm : link
In comment 16495278 christian said:
Quote:
The first wildcard didn't come on the 82M tab.

So one wild card and a day two pick? I'm not sure I'd say worth it, but mitigating, sure.


was going on the totality of his performance as this regime's chosen starter, if you'd prefer 3 year $ i think it's more like 93m but that first year was gtd rookie deal $ so there was no decision for them to make on the $.

i dont think they extended him last year with this outcome as plan A, i think they were buying into upside, but there has always been a middle road/alex smith-y baseline within arms reach with good coaching, exactly as happened in 2022.
...  
christian : 4/27/2024 2:41 pm : link
In comment 16495291 gidiefor said:
Quote:
I'm afraid the Jones contract mistake put Schoen on the hunt for the perfect quarterback.

I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.

I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.

And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.

you logic continues to be flawed

What you are basically saying here is that the failure to pick any QB -- even if possible reasons are they didn't think the available picks represented an improvement, and/or were best pick, and/or even if they had no conviction on available QBs = being risk averse?

really -- I think we need a refresher course in basic logic

I think you need a refresher on capitalization, punctuation, and basic grammar. Reading comprehension would be a bonus, but we've all gone enough rounds with you to know that's not high odds.

Let me spoon feed the highlights to you: afraid, could, might.
RE: ...  
gidiefor : Mod : 4/27/2024 3:30 pm : link
In comment 16495494 christian said:
Quote:


Let me spoon feed the highlights to you: afraid, could, might.


really, don't be afraid to state it's your opinion and leave it at that, because you are clearly unable to cite anything that illustrates this
...  
christian : 4/27/2024 3:46 pm : link
In comment 16495669 gidiefor said:
Quote:
Let me spoon feed the highlights to you: afraid, could, might.

really, don't be afraid to state it's your opinion and leave it at that, because you are clearly unable to cite anything that illustrates this

What are you even mumbling about at this point? Of course it's my opinion. Thus I'm afraid, I've seen this, I think.

The Giants signed a cheaper backup with less starting experience, they passed over 3 quarterbacks picked in the top 13 including 2 who were picked by excellent offensive coaches, and 5 rounds in have not added even a developmental quarterback.

It's beyond risk aversion. He's either content with his quarterback group or paralyzed.
christian  
Sean : 4/27/2024 3:51 pm : link
Yep. I hate to say it, but I agree. Even you expected a 2nd round QB. At some point, you need to believe the actions.

This regime has now gone 19 rounds without drafting a single QB. That is just insane to me. They signed DeVito as a UDFA who was a local kid.

What else am I supposed to believe?

They've taken two 4th round TEs AND traded a 3rd round pick for Waller. Yet, nothing on QB.
RE: RE: RE: …  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2024 3:52 pm : link
In comment 16495361 Lambuth_Special said:
Quote:
In comment 16495303 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


In comment 16495216 christian said:


Quote:


I'm afraid the Jones contract mistake put Schoen on the hunt for the perfect quarterback.

I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.

I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.

And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.



My guess is the Giants are relatively binary in their QB evaluation process. Binary yes/nos rather than view it probabilistically.

I don't know which is better, tbh.



what concerns me regarding this is that the Giants seem to not engage in even basic levels of analysis with Jones. It’s all “he has a good attitude and is tough.”

His stats in home games are dismal. It’s where he plays half his games every season! But I would be willing to bet no one in the Giants organization is even aware of it, much less that they’ve tried to analyze why his home splits are bad. He’s just a guy they like and believe in and that’s that.


Look at the people they try and lump him into with that contract. Dak, Cousins, etc. Guys who throw touchdowns and lead top ten offenses. (Also guys who can't win Super Bowls).

I've posted this a million times:

Daniel Jones is the *only QB in the modern passing era* to play 10+ games for 3 consecutive years and throw fewer TDs than games played every year. He is the only one to sign for $20M+/yr after playing 15+ games and throw less than 20 TDs. There hasn't been another QB to sign for even $10M+/yr after playing 12+ games & throwing only 15 TDs.

It was an incredible outlier contract, and people need to grasp at small data points (QBR, EPA) to defend it rather than grasp the whole picture that suggests he isn't that good. It was a contract given by a team completely unserious about winning a championship.
RE: RE: RE: RE: …  
BrettNYG10 : 4/27/2024 3:52 pm : link
In comment 16495421 BH28 said:
Quote:
In comment 16495361 Lambuth_Special said:


Quote:


In comment 16495303 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


In comment 16495216 christian said:


Quote:


I'm afraid the Jones contract mistake put Schoen on the hunt for the perfect quarterback.

I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.

I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.

And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.



My guess is the Giants are relatively binary in their QB evaluation process. Binary yes/nos rather than view it probabilistically.

I don't know which is better, tbh.



what concerns me regarding this is that the Giants seem to not engage in even basic levels of analysis with Jones. It’s all “he has a good attitude and is tough.”

His stats in home games are dismal. It’s where he plays half his games every season! But I would be willing to bet no one in the Giants organization is even aware of it, much less that they’ve tried to analyze why his home splits are bad. He’s just a guy they like and believe in and that’s that.



I'm not sure if it's the evaluation process, I look at it more of a contingency planning process. The Giants are terrible at it.

As an engineer, we have a saying, "Hope for the best, plan for the worst." It seems the Giants too often leave out the, "plan for the worst" portion of it.

Nate Solder sucks? Oh, he'll rebound next year.
Daniel Jones can't possibly have a worse year than 2023, so he'll rebound.

Hoping for the best is a terrible strategy to have and it seems that is too often the Giants strategy.

This is why I don't understand the Falcons getting shit for the Penix pick. It's a great contingency strategy. If Cousins outplays his contract, awesome. If not, you can pivot to young guy. The odds are more likely than not that Cousins is going to stumble due to age and injury.

I wish the Giants were more forward thinking in contingency planning for the QB room. The Lock signing almost feels like a guy they picked up to NOT directly compete with Jones.


Giants operate on hope, not probability distributions, base rates, and expected value.
Sean  
cosmicj : 4/27/2024 3:55 pm : link
I think Schoen believes really good QBs are selected at the top of the first round.
RE: Sean  
Sean : 4/27/2024 4:02 pm : link
In comment 16495774 cosmicj said:
Quote:
I think Schoen believes really good QBs are selected at the top of the first round.

I keep going back to what Rico has said. "Joe Schoen targets players, not position groups." That is very true based on his actions, but it makes acquiring a QB much more difficult.

I believe he would have traded for Maye had Kraft not vetoed it. Go listen to Talkin Giants, it was reported that Wolf wanted to accept the offer of 6, 47, 107 & a 2025 first for Maye. But, Kraft insisted on bringing in an independent consultant who advised not to make the trade.

But, the point is - if you are only targeting one QB, it's much harder to acquire.
RE: christian  
bw in dc : 4/27/2024 4:22 pm : link
In comment 16495760 Sean said:
Quote:

This regime has now gone 19 rounds without drafting a single QB. That is just insane to me. They signed DeVito as a UDFA who was a local kid.



May need to update this...
I can't believe they didn't draft a QB  
Sean : 4/27/2024 4:28 pm : link
Maybe I'm fucking crazy. Did we all forget the last season? I don't get it.

The thing that might be even more troublesome than Jones - these guys might really love DeVito.
RE: RE: christian  
rsjem1979 : 4/27/2024 4:33 pm : link
In comment 16495867 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16495760 Sean said:


Quote:



This regime has now gone 19 rounds without drafting a single QB. That is just insane to me. They signed DeVito as a UDFA who was a local kid.





May need to update this...


The Giants have not drafted a QB since 2019.

Between Tom Brady’s first Super Bowl and the 2011 season (draft years 2002-2011) the Patriots drafted five.
RE: I can't believe they didn't draft a QB  
bw in dc : 4/27/2024 4:34 pm : link
In comment 16495897 Sean said:
Quote:
Maybe I'm fucking crazy. Did we all forget the last season? I don't get it.

The thing that might be even more troublesome than Jones - these guys might really love DeVito.


They must have thought Maye was the next John Elway to be interested as they reportedly were.

And even if they still think the world of Jones, draft a developmental guy like Pratt who has the same type of skills as Jones, but actually succeeded.
RE: I can't believe they didn't draft a QB  
BH28 : 4/27/2024 4:57 pm : link
In comment 16495897 Sean said:
Quote:
Maybe I'm fucking crazy. Did we all forget the last season? I don't get it.

The thing that might be even more troublesome than Jones - these guys might really love DeVito.


They should have taken one round 1. But since they didn't, I'm ok with not wasting a later round pick on one. They already have DeVito to develop. For every late round QB that has a modicum of success, the list of guys who didn't is much, much larger. Your best odds of success are first round, maybe second. So I'm ok with passing on one of it isn't day one or two.
I think there is a major element of  
Jerry in_DC : 4/27/2024 4:58 pm : link
Making Daniel comfortable and not embarrassing Daniel. IE, if we drafted Travis, there would be "we want Travis" chants going up by October. That is embarrassing to Daniel.

Daniel has a lot of stature in the building. A lot. Right up there with any QB in the league. We saw it with the draft texts. We saw it with the outrageous way Lock had to walk back the comments about competing for a starting job (comments he didn't even make!). We see it with the way the state media is on eggshells discussing him.

You are not going to get a lot of opportunities to embarrassing Daniel. So when you replace him, it has to work. This is kind of a "if you fire at the King, you'd better hit" situation.

You have to hand it to Daniel as a political operative. Despite being terrible, he has made allies in high places. He is the asshole in your office who sucks at his job, but is bulletproof because he plays golf with the C-Suite

For me,  
Rave7 : 4/28/2024 3:55 am : link
Ideally 10+ wins and playoff berth.
30+ TD (min. 25, that's 10th in 2023)
3600+ Yrds and 7.5 + EPA.

Just looking at last years QB stats and every QB had a down year.
So I just want him to have a relatively top 10 QB yr as a stat wise, he needs to show it based on his contract level.

There's no excuse this year. I don't feel comfortable with Jones and I really wanted Maye this year, but it is what it is.
Life goes on and I will support the Giants no matter what and hope to have a good year. To do that, Jones needs to show that he belongs in the top 10 QB's. If not, adios.
the overwhelming vocal sentiment  
fkap : 4/28/2024 8:51 am : link
on BBI about DJ is that he sucks. sucks. and sucks. For this vocal majority, anything approaching competent QB play should come as a shock.
OP prefaces post by saying  
joe48 : 4/28/2024 9:23 am : link
“I’m not a Jones guy.” So your post meets with approval here. Pretty sad that you have to state that.
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