I'm not a Jones guy, but I'll be pleasantly surprised and humbled if he hits the following (very modest) marks this season:
-Starts more than 8 games
-Has a .500 record or greater
AND
-is ranked above average in any one of the following advanced metrics: EPA/per play, QBR, or DVOA.
I try to stay away from conventional stats, otherwise you end up in a Sam Howell scenario where the numbers look good but the performance was bad.
I think all of these are very reasonable expectations. However, the one season he ranked above average in advanced metrics (2022), most all of that was due to running. I can't really see that coming off a torn ACL.
If he can't hit these marks, I fail to see the point of continuing, but I'm sure the FO will find a reason to.
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Fantasy football. If they win and all he needs to be is a game manager, I will be happier than a pig in shit.
Stats matter. If you are winning with low level QB play it means you are capping your teams ceiling. Alex Smith was great with the Chiefs but Reid knew he could do better. we shouldn't settle just because we get a few more wins.
You are not wrong about the Alex Smith part.
My thoughts are that a player can pad stats. You can have a QB they pads stats against a prevent D in a blow out or you can have a guy who throws 3 tds a game in 10 games then gets shut out 7. I'm just looking for a guy who can make the plays needed for the game that day and be consistent with it. We could also have a guy who gets them deep into the red zone and a running back ends up scoring in there.
I think the overall offensive rating and winning games is what's needed
Bank on that.
Wins will be what matters, not stats.
I wouldn't even set the bar that high for him to get an extension.
Anything less than 12 games is a dealbreaker. You make a good point about traditional stats, but I would still need to see an acceptable number of TD passes (more than 25 shouldn't be that difficult in today's NFL). Other than that, Avg depth of target should be over 7, and be in the top half of EPA and other modeled stats.
Judging from this board, I don't think Jones gets a pass. Most wanted him replaced.
2020: 17.5
2021: 15.2
2022: 21.5
2023: 15.6
Jones is getting paid top 10 money, we should have a top 10 offense. So whatever metrics it takes to get there is what it would take to eat crow. We are talking roughly 24 ppg which means our offense needs to generate 40-50 TDs on offense.
Hahahahaha!! One of the funnier post son here in quite some time. Good shit lol
Shit I wanted them To take a flyer on Baker. No crow but if he plays 17 games it's a miracle. Hes a runner playing Qb. These guys are GM and coach killers. He throws 30 TDS maybe we think he can stay. But IMO hes never goin to the reliable player due to him needing to run just to play QB.
3800 yards minimum, but should be more like 4250
35 TDs
12 INTs
8 YPA
On the ground:
400 yards
4 TDs
3 lost fumbles
I think 25 might be possible, especially if Nabers is great at taking short passes to the house ala OBJ. Anything over 25 is basically impossible unless he connects on deep balls to Hyatt and Slayton, and we haven’t seen him do that consistently since the beginning of 2021.
Ahh, makes sense then and I could see that happening if he plays well.
Going to have to make a future separate thread on this.
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passing for more than 300 yds/game in at least 12 games and over 4,000 yds for the season
scoring more than 34 passing TDs over the season
getting into the playoffs, and winning two or more playoff games
Damn, not even Eli hit all those marks in a single season.
You asked me what my bench marks were. I want to see explosive games come out of him, and they need to start happening in the first quarter, pow, pow, pow; otherwise it's really more of the same that we already are disappointed with watching and want to move on from.
We've been promised more fast starts and a more explosive game from both Daboll and Kafka - and we just have not seen that with Daniel on the field
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In comment 16491920 gidiefor said:
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passing for more than 300 yds/game in at least 12 games and over 4,000 yds for the season
scoring more than 34 passing TDs over the season
getting into the playoffs, and winning two or more playoff games
Damn, not even Eli hit all those marks in a single season.
You asked me what my bench marks were. I want to see explosive games come out of him, and they need to start happening in the first quarter, pow, pow, pow; otherwise it's really more of the same that we already are disappointed with watching and want to move on from.
We've been promised more fast starts and a more explosive game from both Daboll and Kafka - and we just have not seen that with Daniel on the field
Definitely no disagreement from me on these points. The utter boringness of the Jones era stands out and I actually think it’s created a Stockholm syndrome scenario for his defenders, where I’ve seen arguments that imply the Eli and Simms era had the same level of “lunchpail” boringness.
I agree. He'd really need a substantial jump in production to justify having him $47M against the cap in 2025. His 2022 wouldn't be enough for me.
Rehab Jones/Lock/DeVito is a fatal flaw. It's so easy to see the train wreck that will be.
Rehab Jones/Lock/DeVito is a fatal flaw. It's so easy to see the train wreck that will be.
This regime not even drafting one is wild to me. It's Daboll's strength.
1. We've made continual investments along the offensive line to protect him more. If you want to argue that those also haven't lived up to the billing, so be it, but it hasn't been for lack of trying.
2. He's had weapons to throw to but has failed to utilize them to their strengths. Did the next "incredible show on turf surround him"? No. But he has had enough talent around him to at least be serviceable - which he hasn't.
3. He is injury-prone, so counting on that to all of a sudden change is a fool's errand. One could say he has been unlucky (ACL) or just reckless with how he takes care of his body to absorb contact (head hits around the goal line). Either way - "availability is the best ability" - he hasn't been. Jones hasn't been on the field enough to justify being an unquestioned starter or (to open up a whole other can of worms) the absurd contract he was given. Throughout his career, he's started 13,14,11,16, and then six games.
4. He fails to look downfield when he throws. Could this be partially blamed for wasting time to throw the ball? Yes. So, I'll give him a minor pass on this one. His YPA was a CAREER LOW 5.7 in 2023. That is essentially a check-down pass every time he was asked to throw. He will never be a stat compiler when he fails to allow plays to develop.
5. During his "breakout" season of 2022, he threw for 3,205 passing yards with just 15 touchdowns. His career-high QBR is 62.9.
So no, I'm not going to "eat crow" if he at least plays to the league average suddenly. Quite frankly, the improvements made along the OL, coupled with the presence of Nabers, reinforces the mistake of giving him a second contract if he doesn't take a step forward this year.
Rehab Jones/Lock/DeVito is a fatal flaw. It's so easy to see the train wreck that will be.
This regime not even drafting one is wild to me. It's Daboll's strength.
It gives me no pleasure, but unfortunately I was right all along. The Giants really like Daniel Jones.
They might have liked Maye more. But they like Jones more than O'Connell and Payton like McCarthy and Nix. That's a lot of like.
They might have liked Maye more. But they like Jones more than O'Connell and Payton like McCarthy and Nix. That's a lot of like.
not for nothing - but as a pure logic exercise
they like jones more than McCarthy and Nix works
but saying that they like Jones more than O'Connell and Payton like McCarthy and Nix seems circular, not logical
how is it relatively gauged that they like x (J) - more than O & P like M & N?
O & P can like M & N more than something else -- but how is that relative to x (J) - as they were not given a chance to choose x (J) instead of M & N
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They might have liked Maye more. But they like Jones more than O'Connell and Payton like McCarthy and Nix. That's a lot of like.
not for nothing - but as a pure logic exercise
they like jones more than McCarthy and Nix works
but saying that they like Jones more than O'Connell and Payton like McCarthy and Nix seems circular, not logical
how is it relatively gauged that they like x (J) - more than O & P like M & N?
O & P can like M & N more than something else -- but how is that relative to x (J) - as they were not given a chance to choose x (J) instead of M & N
Agreed although I look at it not as much as Jones by himself, but rather where Jones ranks as QB in the league on his best day. To me, on his best day Jones is in that range of QBs after the Top 10 that is good enough to go to the playoffs and win a game or two in the right situation, but can't ever do more than that. Passing on McCarthy, Nix and Penix to me reflects that Schoen and Daboll don't think any of them will ever be better than in the same 10-20 range that Jones is in.
Year six. And I'm still reading posters say they will basically settle for x,y or z at this point with Jones.
Year six.
This may be the most bizarre situation I've seen in professional team sports.
Last night, someone started a thread anticipating all of the excuses we could hear for Jones in 2024. I thought it was hilarious and spot on. Of course, the sanctimonious BBI vultures swept in and disparaged it.
Well, that's exactly where I am heading into 2024. I want a year of NO EXCUSES for our $160M man...
Year six. And I'm still reading posters say they will basically settle for x,y or z at this point with Jones.
Year six.
This may be the most bizarre situation I've seen in professional team sports.
Last night, someone started a thread anticipating all of the excuses we could hear for Jones in 2024. I thought it was hilarious and spot on. Of course, the sanctimonious BBI vultures swept in and disparaged it.
Well, that's exactly where I am heading into 2024. I want a year of NO EXCUSES for our $160M man...
Bw , I’m beyond this. If Jones delivers a good year in 2024, I won’t believe it projects and has any implications after that season. And I think you’re in the same place.
Year six. And I'm still reading posters say they will basically settle for x,y or z at this point with Jones.
Year six.
This may be the most bizarre situation I've seen in professional team sports.
Last night, someone started a thread anticipating all of the excuses we could hear for Jones in 2024. I thought it was hilarious and spot on. Of course, the sanctimonious BBI vultures swept in and disparaged it.
Well, that's exactly where I am heading into 2024. I want a year of NO EXCUSES for our $160M man...
It's hard to recall an instance where the QB situation was this poorly managed over such an extended period of time. And I can't recall a QB this poor getting this much opportunity. There aren't any comparable situations that I can recall.
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for a lottery QB on his lucrative second contract.
Year six. And I'm still reading posters say they will basically settle for x,y or z at this point with Jones.
Year six.
This may be the most bizarre situation I've seen in professional team sports.
Last night, someone started a thread anticipating all of the excuses we could hear for Jones in 2024. I thought it was hilarious and spot on. Of course, the sanctimonious BBI vultures swept in and disparaged it.
Well, that's exactly where I am heading into 2024. I want a year of NO EXCUSES for our $160M man...
It's hard to recall an instance where the QB situation was this poorly managed over such an extended period of time. And I can't recall a QB this poor getting this much opportunity. There aren't any comparable situations that I can recall.
Jake Plummer in Arizona, and Alex Smith in SF until his breakout Harbaugh season in 2011 are the only two that come to mind.
But SF also benched Smith several times throughout the start of his career.
17 tds
5 ints (best int% in nfl)
3400 passing yards (7.3 ay/a, 200 ypg)
200 rushing yards, 2 rushing tds
some hints, it's an age 27 QB's 6th season and his team went from 6 wins to 13 wins and a 5 ppg improvement from 19 ppg to 24 ppg. first year, first time nfl head coach too.
I also don't know what Chicago would do if they didn't have the first pick.
People don't take into account how impactful the lack of QBs in the 2022 lottery led to this. It's easy to praise Peters in WSH, he had a much easier entry than Schoen.
Eric on LI made a great post about going over the opportunities Schoen had to go QB. This was his biggest opportunity this year and he passed.
17 tds
5 ints (best int% in nfl)
3400 passing yards (7.3 ay/a, 200 ypg)
200 rushing yards, 2 rushing tds
some hints, it's an age 27 QB's 6th season and his team went from 6 wins to 13 wins and a 5 ppg improvement from 19 ppg to 24 ppg. first year, first time nfl head coach too.
Is that Alex Smith under Harbaugh? I would take that performance. I’m not hung up on conventional stats as much, I just like being efficient and getting enough touchdown drives, whether they are finished through the air or on the ground doesn’t matter much to me.
Troy Aikman exemplifies this for me. His stats were underwhelming even in the context of the 90s, but he always moved those Cowboys teams down the field.
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61%
17 tds
5 ints (best int% in nfl)
3400 passing yards (7.3 ay/a, 200 ypg)
200 rushing yards, 2 rushing tds
some hints, it's an age 27 QB's 6th season and his team went from 6 wins to 13 wins and a 5 ppg improvement from 19 ppg to 24 ppg. first year, first time nfl head coach too.
Is that Alex Smith under Harbaugh? I would take that performance. I’m not hung up on conventional stats as much, I just like being efficient and getting enough touchdown drives, whether they are finished through the air or on the ground doesn’t matter much to me.
Troy Aikman exemplifies this for me. His stats were underwhelming even in the context of the 90s, but he always moved those Cowboys teams down the field.
correct. alex smith's first winning year, only his second with a full 16 starts, his first with 3k+ yards.
basically what jones did in 2022 first year w/ daboll. except a better defense.
I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.
I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.
I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.
I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.
I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.
I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.
The main question now becomes what does Jones need to do to play on the 2025 cap hit of $47M?
I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.
I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.
I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.
Both Alex Smith and Jake Plummer are in some respects good examples of both sides benefitting from a separation. 49ers went to a SB with Kap, but also the Chiefs set up their baby steps toward dominance with Reid through those early Smith years.
Mike Shanahan had a couple of good years with Plummer in Denver, and the Cardinals eventually settled on Kurt Warner and went to a SB. Food for thought for the Giants FO that is somehow both afraid of moving on and of ‘failing’ Jones
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And after that year the 49ers drafted a QB with pick 36, and Alex Smith played 9 more games for 49ers despite getting extended.
I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.
I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.
I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.
The main question now becomes what does Jones need to do to play on the 2025 cap hit of $47M?
the answer to that is simple - he needs to be their preferred QB option among whatever else is available to them. same as this draft they apparently thought maye was a better option but jjm/et al werent. same as prior offseasons when willis/trubisky/carr/etc werent.
next offseason the same assessment will take place with jones vs whoever is on FA market (fields, russ, dak, etc), plus draft/trade markets. next year's trade market could get interesting with guys like watson, kyler, bryce young, who knows maybe even lawrence.
for now i think the plan is repeat 2022 or better with jones because that creates the most value. another 2022 for jones would make him a trade asset.
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And after that year the 49ers drafted a QB with pick 36, and Alex Smith played 9 more games for 49ers despite getting extended.
I think the way you described Jones earlier in the week as middle of the road is probably a too kind, but I can wrap my head around the sentiment. I think the best way to describe his 2022 season was efficient.
I don't discount there is an outcome where an efficient Jones surrounded by a lot talent on the both sides of the ball can make noise. But the only way we've seen that so far is if he's healthy, he can run well, and he's got a top running back.
I also don't discount Jones can have a late career renaissance like Smith. I just wouldn't bet on it, and I think it's worth risking letting another team find out.
Both Alex Smith and Jake Plummer are in some respects good examples of both sides benefitting from a separation. 49ers went to a SB with Kap, but also the Chiefs set up their baby steps toward dominance with Reid through those early Smith years.
Mike Shanahan had a couple of good years with Plummer in Denver, and the Cardinals eventually settled on Kurt Warner and went to a SB. Food for thought for the Giants FO that is somehow both afraid of moving on and of ‘failing’ Jones
i dont think thats it. i think there have been some bad QB drafts until this one, and in this one they couldnt get their guy. the 49ers traded smith after drafting/developing kap. i could see something similar here. if jones has another really bad year like last year i think they would move on independently but right now clearly they like him enough to not want to do that. they still believe in what they believed in last year.
@DDuggan21
Still wouldn't like it. Giants are very likely going to be in the market for a QB1 in next year's draft. So why use a pick this year on a developmental QB? The Day 3 QB flier makes more sense for a team with an established starter looking for a cheap backup. The Giants' fourth-round pick could play a lot of snaps in 2024 at another position
Last year was a shock to the system with a much tougjer schedule and the opponents taking away the 1-read and run scheme Daboll got away with in 2022. If Daboll can’t adjust with a much better cast surrounding his QB of choice in 2024, then he deserves to go with Jones.
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Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Still wouldn't like it. Giants are very likely going to be in the market for a QB1 in next year's draft. So why use a pick this year on a developmental QB? The Day 3 QB flier makes more sense for a team with an established starter looking for a cheap backup. The Giants' fourth-round pick could play a lot of snaps in 2024 at another position
I don't agree with this thinking at all. Guys like Dak and Cousins and Hurts wouldn't have been picked with that logic. While the guy is most likely a bust, it's a cheap call option.
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Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Still wouldn't like it. Giants are very likely going to be in the market for a QB1 in next year's draft. So why use a pick this year on a developmental QB? The Day 3 QB flier makes more sense for a team with an established starter looking for a cheap backup. The Giants' fourth-round pick could play a lot of snaps in 2024 at another position
Baffled by Duggan’s logic here. We have a need at QB. It’s that simple.
As preposterous as his salary is, the years are worse. We all get a finite number of Giants seasons. Daniel continues to ruin them by virtue of being a professional looking white guy who shows up to work on time. Truly a sad state of affairs.
Giants fans have had some great moments in our lives. But we deserve a lot better than this. We deserve a team that wants to win as much as we do. At least tries to win. Instead we have an organization dedicated to the personal fulfillment and financial enrichment of Daniel because he looks the way a QB should look and he is effective at brown nosing ownership and management.
As preposterous as his salary is, the years are worse. We all get a finite number of Giants seasons. Daniel continues to ruin them by virtue of being a professional looking white guy who shows up to work on time. Truly a sad state of affairs.
Giants fans have had some great moments in our lives. But we deserve a lot better than this. We deserve a team that wants to win as much as we do. At least tries to win. Instead we have an organization dedicated to the personal fulfillment and financial enrichment of Daniel because he looks the way a QB should look and he is effective at brown nosing ownership and management.
How many years of evidence do we need that Jones can't produce at a high level? Guys who can't throw touchdowns don't win Super Bowls. Keeping him around for year six just isn't serious. It's like keeping Dave Gettleman for four years. It's indicative of a franchise that just wants to compete for a playoff spot once in a while.
I've seen this in business a number of times. You take a big swing and miss, then get very risk averse.
I posted this yesterday, but it's worth repeating. Skipping on McCarthy and Nix because they weren't Maye could be letting great be the enemy of good.
And I think not picking anyone in the mid rounds and getting cheaper/worse at the backup position might be symptoms as well.