Neil Stratton @InsideTheLeague
A few draft-day truths:
- No one really knows how any of this wknd’s picks will perform.
- Statistically speaking, 5-6 GMs making these picks will be gone in a yr. About a third will be gone in 2.
- Injuries/coaching changes will impact draftees more than their own abilities.
Sure,
--talent
--character
--game awareness
all important, all things teams try to measure
--health/injuries
--chemistry with coaches
--chemistry with teammates
--systems
--dealing with new wealth
--dealing with new lifestyle/freedoms
--friend group
--personal tragedy
it all mixes together in unpredictable ways - you take your best shot and provide all the support you can. As long as the team is doing that, all you can do is make your best guess
In the wrong situation, a talented first rounder can bust. Sometimes they get a second chance, sometimes not.
And injuries can easily derail a career. That’s luck, too. We had some of that with Barkley.