As much as the shorts and underwear olympics get criticized, teams do tend to select the most athletic players. This year Washington and Philly had the top 2 classes in terms of athleticism.
Kent Lee Platte
@MathBomb
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1. Washington #Commanders - Avg #RAS 9.427
Washington had two players who didn't test, and if they had they likely would have had an even higher average RAS. 2nd rounder Mike Sainristil had their worst RAS at 8.45, which says a lot about their approach this year. #DraftAthletes
Kent Lee Platte
@MathBomb
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2. Philadelphia #Eagles - Avg #RAS 9.312
A team that is always at or near the top for RAS, it should surprise no one that they ended up this highly ranked in 2024, one of the most athletic classes ever. Eagles took 7 players with 9.00 or higher, and only one below that.
nyg ranked 19th but they were largely pulled down by Nubin, who claims he wasn't healthy bc of the knee scope. their top 4 picks without Nubin/Muasau would have hit a cumulative 9.4. phillips RAS is lower than it should be also because of an error in the RAS database with his 10 yard split. he's actually closer to 90th percentile too.
Kent Lee Platte
@MathBomb
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19. New York #Giants - Avg #RAS 7.826
The Giants didn't draft many players, and while they took 4 elite tier athletes, they took a risk with Tyler Nubin (a top rated safety who tested very poorly), you can forgive taking Muasau late since late picks are worth far less.
full thread with all teams linked below.
https://x.com/MathBomb/status/1784390657617936870 - (
New Window )
If he busts, we're never gonna hear the end of it. If he stars, we're gonna be wondering how he tested so badly.
If he busts, we're never gonna hear the end of it. If he stars, we're gonna be wondering how he tested so badly.
Mckinney was the same. This guy looks like a future Mckinney with better ball instincts and a better attitude. The run on CBs hurt, but Bowen highly values safeties in his scheme and I think he got a perfect fit for what he likes to do. He runs a lot of 3 safety sets.
But he’s knee issue didn’t help matters either. So as bad as they look, there may be a good reason for it.
If he busts, we're never gonna hear the end of it. If he stars, we're gonna be wondering how he tested so badly.
He was recovering from a knee scope.
That may have impacted the score.
If he busts, we're never gonna hear the end of it. If he stars, we're gonna be wondering how he tested so badly.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in this. There are players that score off the charts that suck. Not saying Bellinger sucks by any means, but his RAS score mirrored Kelce. Does he look like Kelce? No. Some players are just good at the game, they know what position to be in, are sure tacklers, etc. Let’s hope Nubin is one of those guys.
But he’s knee issue didn’t help matters either. So as bad as they look, there may be a good reason for it.
i tend to lean this way too. i remember a contenious debate on bbi in 2016 between darian thompson and his 19 collegiate interceptions and justin simmons who was an elite tester and sy favorite, and i remember that because every game of simmons all pro career since then has been a reminder. yes some guys can overcome athletic limitations with instincts but if we had the choice we'd obviously rather pick guys who don't have that question.
re nubin, mcginn's series did have scouts quoted as saying he is an excellent special teamer so they felt he is more athletic than his testing indicated.
Quote:
I’m sure he wouldn’t have tested amazing to begin with.
But he’s knee issue didn’t help matters either. So as bad as they look, there may be a good reason for it.
i tend to lean this way too. i remember a contenious debate on bbi in 2016 between darian thompson and his 19 collegiate interceptions and justin simmons who was an elite tester and sy favorite, and i remember that because every game of simmons all pro career since then has been a reminder. yes some guys can overcome athletic limitations with instincts but if we had the choice we'd obviously rather pick guys who don't have that question.
re nubin, mcginn's series did have scouts quoted as saying he is an excellent special teamer so they felt he is more athletic than his testing indicated.
The funny thing is ESPN’s projected comparison for Nubin was Justin Simmons.
Quote:
In comment 16497296 Shecky said:
Quote:
I’m sure he wouldn’t have tested amazing to begin with.
But he’s knee issue didn’t help matters either. So as bad as they look, there may be a good reason for it.
i tend to lean this way too. i remember a contenious debate on bbi in 2016 between darian thompson and his 19 collegiate interceptions and justin simmons who was an elite tester and sy favorite, and i remember that because every game of simmons all pro career since then has been a reminder. yes some guys can overcome athletic limitations with instincts but if we had the choice we'd obviously rather pick guys who don't have that question.
re nubin, mcginn's series did have scouts quoted as saying he is an excellent special teamer so they felt he is more athletic than his testing indicated.
The funny thing is ESPN’s projected comparison for Nubin was Justin Simmons.
simmons ran a slower 40 than i remembered but his movement skills were elite elite and the 40 inch vert indicated plenty of explosiveness. i think he had also played some corner at BC. i may be misremembering but i think the question with him was ball skills because he didnt have a lot of ints, which is why i remember the debate of him and thompson being very ying/yang.
Quote:
In comment 16497325 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16497296 Shecky said:
Quote:
I’m sure he wouldn’t have tested amazing to begin with.
But he’s knee issue didn’t help matters either. So as bad as they look, there may be a good reason for it.
i tend to lean this way too. i remember a contenious debate on bbi in 2016 between darian thompson and his 19 collegiate interceptions and justin simmons who was an elite tester and sy favorite, and i remember that because every game of simmons all pro career since then has been a reminder. yes some guys can overcome athletic limitations with instincts but if we had the choice we'd obviously rather pick guys who don't have that question.
re nubin, mcginn's series did have scouts quoted as saying he is an excellent special teamer so they felt he is more athletic than his testing indicated.
The funny thing is ESPN’s projected comparison for Nubin was Justin Simmons.
simmons ran a slower 40 than i remembered but his movement skills were elite elite and the 40 inch vert indicated plenty of explosiveness. i think he had also played some corner at BC. i may be misremembering but i think the question with him was ball skills because he didnt have a lot of ints, which is why i remember the debate of him and thompson being very ying/yang.
I know their RAS scores are wildly different, I was just surprised that ESPN said his pro comp was Simmons since they seem to have much different athletic profiles.
it is, the biggest difference between the 2 is mckinney played in the SEC and a lot of slot where you would have expected his speed to get more exposed if it was a problem. his vert was better too so there was some hope he just ran a bad 40. he didnt do agility drills so its possible those would have been better than nubins.
mckinney is definitely a more hopeful outcome than darian thompson, and probably more relevant too. brian branch too possibly. saban being a fan of nubin is encouraging that his skill set fits what he was so succesful developing.
noun
Nu·bi·an ˈnü-bē-ən
1: a native or inhabitant of Nubia
a member of one of the group of dark-skinned peoples that
formed a powerful empire between Egypt and Ethiopia from
the 6th to the 14th centuries
2: any of several languages spoken in central and northern
Sudan
noun
Nu·bi·an ˈnü-bē-ən
1: a native or inhabitant of Nubia
a member of one of the group of dark-skinned peoples that
formed a powerful empire between Egypt and Ethiopia from
the 6th to the 14th centuries
2: any of several languages spoken in central and northern
Sudan
Nubin - NFL all-pro safety drafted by the Giants with the 47th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
“I got surgery after the regular season, meniscectomy in my lateral meniscus in my right knee,” Nubin said. “I accelerated the recovery process because I wanted to do everything at the combine. It kind of bit me in the butt a little bit.”
You have to love the dedication.
And he can play
According to PFF, Nubin allowed a reception on just 34.5 percent of his targets throughout his career, the best number of any safety drafted in the last decade.
I mean some of it seems obvious, but part of it seems like the underwear Olympics and has the potential to over emphasize measurables like teams often do with combine and pro day results to over draft a player.
yes. ive seen more extensive analysis than this with the relationship between 90 percentiles + pro bowlers but i cant find that. the below is probably more of what you are asking though since very few of those drafted are pro bowlers.
Kent Lee Platte
@MathBomb
There are 1,920 players on NFL rosters currently who posted a #RAS.
Of those, 81.35% are rated 5.00 or above, with only 18.65% rated below average.
A whopping 45.21% are above 8.00, in that elite range for athletic ability when compared to their peers.
@MathBomb
There are 1,920 players on NFL rosters currently who posted a #RAS.
Of those, 81.35% are rated 5.00 or above, with only 18.65% rated below average.
A whopping 45.21% are above 8.00, in that elite range for athletic ability when compared to their peers.
Weird that CBs rank behind OCs and OGs.
Quote:
Kent Lee Platte
@MathBomb
There are 1,920 players on NFL rosters currently who posted a #RAS.
Of those, 81.35% are rated 5.00 or above, with only 18.65% rated below average.
A whopping 45.21% are above 8.00, in that elite range for athletic ability when compared to their peers.
Weird that CBs rank behind OCs and OGs.
an elite short shuttle time on the OL has something like a 90% rate of predictive success. this chart is just interior OL and it's lower, but i saw another one with all OL and out of the 30 top short shuttle guys in the last 2 decades like 27 of them ended up great players.
Kevin Cole
@KevinCole___
Findings confirm what
@JoshNorris
and others have pointed to as one of the biggest Combine signals: the short shuttle at interior OL.
Linemen w/ weight-adjusted agility like Jason Kelce and Chase Roullier found success in the NFL, despite lower draft positions
https://x.com/KevinCole___/status/1630575985715232769 - ( New Window )