stumbled upon this article from before the draft re diff trends around the league. all of them are interesting but 2 of them jump out given giants selections.
the first notable trend shows a clear league wide increases in zone D and split safeties, and nyg having been at the bottom of both categories under Wink. it's already pretty well established that Bowen runs a lot more split safety than Wink did. seeing how much split safety KC ran the last 2 years is interesting since their D has been so good and spags has generally played a good amount of man coverage with aggressive blitzes.
the Nubin pick in particular seems to align with both trends - more split safety play and more zone coverage. per @douganalytics Nubin averaged 77 Zone Coverage Snaps per Reception Allowed (1st in class).
the other trend i found notable is one i've mentioned before - the proliferation of the kyle shanahan offense and how much the teams run by his former assistants (mcvay, mcdaniel, lafleur) all seem to be the teams most recently overachieving (hou too).
shifting, condensed formations, quick passing games are all hallmarks of that offense - which is also considered to be an easier scheme for pass pro.
nabers and tracy (not to mention wandale, mckenzie) would seem to have the capacity to move around formations and give defenses something to think about with pre-snap motions. one of nabers most successful plays was the slot fade so im expecting to see him aligned close to the formation a lot.
last year it seemed like campbell was the guy they tried to make an effort to utilize in that way early but like a lot of last year's outcomes was a total bust. i really really liked MHJ and Odunze but am more and more appreciating why many have speculated that nabers skill set was the best fit for this offense. i dont think he's going to mix into the slot occasionally, i think he is going to be their featured weapon from the slot like kupp.
2024 NFL Draft: How three trends in pro football connect to this year's prospect class - (
New Window )
Think for many years Giants behind the curve and missed out on some players based on height-weight scouting preferences
2) QB taking longer to throw but throwing shorter passes
Makes sense based on trend of 2 high safeties and zone coverage. Puts premium on speedy WR who are good at YAC. We are moving in tne right direction there. Doesn’t play to DJ since he’s poor at getting it out on time and in the right place.
3) Shanahan effect is real
Giants don’t use a lot of shift and motion…maybe that’s something that will change a bit this year with a more veteran OL. It would probably help with scheming up some easier reads and completions for the QB. That’s predicated on having a decent running attack which I think we will have this year
Think for many years Giants behind the curve and missed out on some players based on height-weight scouting preferences
2) QB taking longer to throw but throwing shorter passes
Makes sense based on trend of 2 high safeties and zone coverage. Puts premium on speedy WR who are good at YAC. We are moving in tne right direction there. Doesn’t play to DJ since he’s poor at getting it out on time and in the right place.
3) Shanahan effect is real
Giants don’t use a lot of shift and motion…maybe that’s something that will change a bit this year with a more veteran OL. It would probably help with scheming up some easier reads and completions for the QB. That’s predicated on having a decent running attack which I think we will have this year
I think the new regime was somewhat on the lighter trend - they have been picking guys like flott, robinson, hyatt each year prioritizing movement over size.
Agree that #2/3 are where Daboll probably needs to tap into Kafka to some extent because Andy Reid's offenses historically did that kind of stuff better than anyone. Shanahan's offenses use it the most but Reid has always been good at creatively scheming motion with fast players.
Re holding ball longer and more split safeties, that's also probably something Josh Allen has struggled with. His turnovers have gone up the last few years and id imagine part of that is forcing things into more conservative defenses. So this is in a way a macro thing the daboll offense needs to adjust to.
Nubin: have wanted to add this thought since he was drafted vis à vis McKinney comps, for obvious reasons, and it's a bit of a conundrum. In the week after X was drafted, there was a podcast linked here about his strengths and weaknesses, praising his physical abilities but also citing weaknesses (slow) in reads and angles he took on receivers after the catch--angles were often off and he'd wind up overrunning the potential tackle. The 'cast was by SEC scouts iirc.
Coming to Nubin, whatever his RAS is or is not telling us, the scouting reports, the commentary (e.g., Saban), and the film I saw show an intuitive, fast reacting, instinctive player, good tackler, good hands, cutting off and anticipating routes, getting pics and break-ups. In this regard he is the anti-McKinney. The conundrum here--and to the thrust of the article in your OP--is the trend toward more zone, which could be argued might dampen Nubin's strengths--instinctive and productive play on receivers before/after the catch--arguably good for man-to-man schemes. Yet, per the data, he was the #1 rated S in zone coverage. Anyway, I found all this interesting.
Nubin: have wanted to add this thought since he was drafted vis à vis McKinney comps, for obvious reasons, and it's a bit of a conundrum. In the week after X was drafted, there was a podcast linked here about his strengths and weaknesses, praising his physical abilities but also citing weaknesses (slow) in reads and angles he took on receivers after the catch--angles were often off and he'd wind up overrunning the potential tackle. The 'cast was by SEC scouts iirc.
Coming to Nubin, whatever his RAS is or is not telling us, the scouting reports, the commentary (e.g., Saban), and the film I saw show an intuitive, fast reacting, instinctive player, good tackler, good hands, cutting off and anticipating routes, getting pics and break-ups. In this regard he is the anti-McKinney. The conundrum here--and to the thrust of the article in your OP--is the trend toward more zone, which could be argued might dampen Nubin's strengths--instinctive and productive play on receivers before/after the catch--arguably good for man-to-man schemes. Yet, per the data, he was the #1 rated S in zone coverage. Anyway, I found all this interesting.
Nubin is the pick i've been most split on myself so i've been trying to find stuff to like about it. here are some coverage numbers on him from PFF:
in man coverage - 14.7% snaps, 61 pass coverage snaps:
2 targets
0 receptions allowed
2 int
zone coverage - 57% of time, 246 pass snaps:
13 targets,
3 receptions allowed,
71 yards
3 forced incompletions
3 passes defensed
1 int
i think all safeties are generally going to play more zone than man or else they'd be corners, i think nubin's instincts and awareness are likely most impactful in zone where he is facing the play vs turn and run.
they werent in a high passing conference (when they played drake maye he passed for 414 yards and put up 31 points, 0 targets at nubin) but nubins coverage numbers are great, so if the athleticism holds up i think it's possible he'll be better in that split role than mckinney was who was more of a joker moving all over formation. apparently he hit 21.5mph on gps last year and if that's true he is probably faster than mckinney and closer to a 4.5 guy than 4.6. guys who run sub 4.5 generally hit 22mph on flying 20, so without pads its not impossible he could have come close to that if healthy.
https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/4/27/24142656/film-breakdown-tyler-nubin-and-his-incredible-instincts-new-york-giants-nfl-draft - ( New Window )
2) QB taking longer to throw but throwing shorter passes
Makes sense based on trend of 2 high safeties and zone coverage. Puts premium on speedy WR who are good at YAC. We are moving in the right direction there. Doesn’t play to DJ since he’s poor at getting it out on time and in the right place.
Not to make this into another DJ thread, but reading the OP and these comments makes we wonder whether we can really have an open QB competition this summer, with the QB best at this kind of offense winning the job.
the ghost of darian thompson? im generally wary of players who test so poorly across the board. it's not very common these days that a prospects test poorly in every category so the few that have been picked high stick with me. deandre baker was another, and off the field stuff aside he was not good on field.
But it bears pointing out that the reason that Shanahan system works is because those HCs are tremendous at identifying and developing talent to fit their systems.
I'm all for understanding and - maybe - copying the trends, but the jury is out whether we have the rest of the formula for success.
But it bears pointing out that the reason that Shanahan system works is because those HCs are tremendous at identifying and developing talent to fit their systems.
I'm all for understanding and - maybe - copying the trends, but the jury is out whether we have the rest of the formula for success.
i think wandale and nabers would be studs in SF/MIA/HOU. Hyatt too.
a little less confident in anyone else and especially the running game. forgetting CMC the hallmark of those offenses has always been getting more out of replacement rbs like miami has with mostert and lar has with guys like kyren, henderson, etc.
daboll has a lot of pieces now, with nabers a lot more explosive talent than 2022 even without barkley/waller, i think a lot of next year is on him figuring out how to put them together. they scored 22ppg in 2022, i think 23-25ppg is an appropriate target.
Quote:
2) QB taking longer to throw but throwing shorter passes
Makes sense based on trend of 2 high safeties and zone coverage. Puts premium on speedy WR who are good at YAC. We are moving in the right direction there. Doesn’t play to DJ since he’s poor at getting it out on time and in the right place.
Not to make this into another DJ thread, but reading the OP and these comments makes we wonder whether we can really have an open QB competition this summer, with the QB best at this kind of offense winning the job.
DJ will start when healthy. He's being paid 47 million and Mara loves him, he isn't being benched.
i lean more towards agreeing with you but i trust numbers more than my eyes often too. like i said im split on nubin, but it wouldnt take too much to swing me positive expecting him to end up an outlier more like brian branch or mckinney than thompson. if the GPS time is correct my concerns would drop significantly. nick saban's comments also push me more in the positive direction if i had to pick 1 side or the other.
from the outside i think fans (and reporters) probably use all of them interchangeably and whatever the actual differences are we dont know them correctly.
i think all of them are 2 safeties deep so the qb has to expect coverage over the top on both halves vs 1 "centerfielder" who the QB can read on the snap and throw away from easier.
I mostly agree with Eric; however, when you hear Tampa 2 that is split safeties with the wrinkle of dropping the Mike super deep to try to cover some of the areas vacated by the safeties.
@notJDaigle
300-yard passing performances over the last 10 years:
2014: 123
2015: 137
2016: 118
2017: 97
2018: 132
2019: 132
2020: 132
2021: 112
2022: 93
2023: 106
we know the new CBA and all the rule changes from 2011 on pushing things in favor of passing. the illegal contact penalties, the unnecessary roughness penalties, etc.
the result was explosive passing (300 yard games) at a 3 year high from 2018-2020.
how did defenses react? In the 3 years since more zone, more split safeties.
if i was betting this is why harbough moved on from wink when he did. he saw where the puck was going in 2021 when wink's unit lost their stars and he couldnt patch it together effectively.