.@SyracuseMets Joey Lucchesi
@RumblePoniesBB (game 1) Luis Moreno
@RumblePoniesBB (game 2) Troy Miller
@BKCyclones Felipe De La Cruz
@stluciemets Austin Troesser (quietest strong start in the organization. 13.2 innings 19 k's 2.63 era)
AAA
Acuna 1-6, 2B
Ritter 3-4, BB
Iglesias 2-5, 2 HR
Bannon 1-4, HR, 2 BB
Hamel 4.1 7 hits 4 runs 2 walks 3 k’s
Jay 2.2 innings 2 hits 0 runs 1 walk 0 k’s
BK
Lara 2-4, BB, SB, K
Clifford 2-4, BB, 2 k’s
Lorusso 2-3, 2B, 3B, BB, SB (.943 OPS)
McLean 0-3 BB, 3 k’s
Orellana 4.1 innings 3 hits 0 runs 1 walk 3 k’s (1.02 era!)
Ventura 3.2 innings 3 hits 0 runs 0 walks 5 k’s (I suspect he’s in Bing soonish)
St. Lucie
Mosquera 2-5, K
Houck 1-5, BB, 2 k’s
Suero 2-4, HR, BB, SB (remains my *super sleeper*. OPS up to .974, 8 game hit streak)
Baro (at 3B, season debut) 1-3, BB, error
Morabito 2-3, BB, K (hitting .397! Promote Nick!)
Baez 1-5
Hudepohl 5 innings hits 0 runs 2 walks 8 k’s
Loper 2 innings 0 hits 0 runs 1 walk 2 k’s
Alfonseca 1 perfect
Ovalles 1 perfect 1 k
Marco Vargas is injured, unclear if it's the same issue that has limited him to 3 games and a previous IL stint
-Infielder/centerfielder Jett Williams, the Mets’ top prospect, went on the seven-day injured list with Double-A Binghamton because of a right wrist issue.
After he jammed it, sat out for a week and didn’t feel well enough to play, the Mets opted to officially sideline him. He might get a cortisone injection, and the Mets are inclined to take his return very slowly, given his importance to the organization.
Before getting hurt, Williams was off to a slow start at the plate, batting .180 with a .668 OPS. He also played several games at second base, his first professional exposure to that position, his potential eventual defensive home.
Saul Garcia (received a nice report from @BaseballAmerica before the season) has been activated from the 7 day IL. Garcia has stuck out 7 over 3.2 innings of work for @stluciemets. He figures to join @BKCyclones shortly
Thinking about Dan's WRC+ point --
The formula for WRC looks like a scary calculus equation.
But, if it treats 'Reached Base on Error' differently than the Batting Average calc, it would help Acuna's case. He gets on base quite a bit via rushed throws from infielders, which looks like an O'fer in BA. Once he's on fist base, it's a given that he's stealing. That's Runs Created.
the thing i look at first with any hitter is XBH. if a guy gets a lot of XBH his bat will play regardless of anything else. XBH = rbis bc if any non vogelbach runner is on, they are usually scoring on any XBH.
the 2nd thing i look at is k rate/walk rate/batting average bc that combo tells you how good they are at contact.
guys who steal bases like acuna the latter obviously plays up bc they can turn singles/walks into xbh for themselves at least (though the rbi factor diminishes).
ops is my preferred all in one proxy over RC. at least in season.
so putting acuna's season so far through all that:
1. 12 XBH in just under 200 abs is ok. that's pacing towards about 40 on a full year, which is respectable for a MI but not great. lindor had 66 last year for reference. andres gimenez is perhaps a better comp for the type of player im hoping acuna becomes and he had 47 last year in 600 abs. since XBH are so small sample, you can see how 1 game can make a big difference. if he hits for a cycle today his pace gets closer to 50+ over a season and that is a very good number for a MI/top order hitter.
2. his k-rate at 18% is solid. gimenez as a pro is 19.5% on his career, lindor 16%. either way strong k rate for a league debut.
3. walk rate is 5% which is same as gimenez, not ideal but typical of younger players. lindors has gone from 8% to 11% over his career, though this year it's just 6.8%. for young players i sort of expect a non-ideal walk rate and if they have a good walk rate that is gravy. it's not the worst negative but it is a good positive bc walk rates are durable league to league on promotions.
4. batting average at .243 is lower than ideal, but his babip is just .289 so i expect there is some bad luck in there since he's so fast. when he was crushing AA in texas and hiting .315 his BABIP was .381, which is unsustainably high, but i would guess over his career he settles in around 310-320 which is on the higher end of league avg and would bring his BA up to like .270.
knowing what his contact/exit velo numbers are in AAA would help determine how unlucky acuna has been, and if they are good he is probably due for a month where everything falls in and his batting average jumps up by 20-40 points.
gimenez career babip is .310 and his career ba is .265. he skipped AAA altogether because of the covid year canceling the minors and debuted at 21 years old off a AA season where he ops'd .695. his ba that year was .250 and he he'd hit 36 xbh in just under 500 plate appearances. very acuna-esque.
it would not take very much in acuna's play over the next few weeks to consider "shot gun" promoting him, possibly before he's fully ready as gimenez was, because the roster need is there. mcneil hasnt been great and they have no backup SS. though if i saw data that made me think he's struggling under the hood and was better served in AAA that may change my mind.
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In such a great hitting environment I think using wRC+ is far more valuable than OPS. .650 OPS would still be 114/130 qualified hitters in the IL. Getting his wRC+ closer to 100 would be telling more of a story with him.
Thinking about Dan's WRC+ point --
The formula for WRC looks like a scary calculus equation.
But, if it treats 'Reached Base on Error' differently than the Batting Average calc, it would help Acuna's case. He gets on base quite a bit via rushed throws from infielders, which looks like an O'fer in BA. Once he's on fist base, it's a given that he's stealing. That's Runs Created.
His OBP is bottom 10 in the league (out of 130 players), there is no realistic way to suggest he's beating out so many errors that his OBP isn't terrible. Jose Reyes (famously didn't walk and an even faster runner than Acuna) posted a .330 OBP in AAA (as a 20 year old), Acuna's is currently .287. Juan Pierre (a 70-80 runner) had a .379 minor league OBP, he basically skipped AAA but his AA OBP was.376. There aren't too many good offensive players who are fast so they are good, but they don't get on base.
OPS on it's own is close to useless when not comparing it to the rest of the league. It's like citing a Colorado player (pre humidor) and ignoring where he plays completely
even using traditional stats
Acuna ranks 88/130 in average
125/130 in OBP
107/130 in slugging
118/130 in OPS
There really isn't a single area Acuna is putting up good offensive numbers outside of steals, which we know are dependent on getting on base. Won't steal many bases for the Mets if his OBP is sub .290
I know that his April was 'The Pits' but he started to heat up in May. I remember distinctly he had an 8 game hit streak on May 11th.
If you wanted to run his Month of May thru any of your preferred metrics....you'd have a pretty good snapshot.
this is small sample since he only just came up to AAA but stuff is stuff (and those samples stabilize pretty quickly).
Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
·
2m
MiLB (AAA and FSL) tjStuff+ Leaders
min. 60 Pitches/GP, 25<= Age
1) George Klassen - PHI - 107
2) Eliazar Dishmey - MIA - 107
3) Chen-Wei Lin - STL - 106
4) David Festa - MIN - 105
5) Blade Tidwell - NYM - 104
I know that his April was 'The Pits' but he started to heat up in May. I remember distinctly he had an 8 game hit streak on May 11th.
If you wanted to run his Month of May thru any of your preferred metrics....you'd have a pretty good snapshot.
Acuna April- .235/.293/.365- .658 OPS, 3 triples, 2 2B, 1 HR, 6 walks, 20 k’s-21 games played
Acuna May .264/.299/.319- .618 OPS, 5 doubles, 4 walks, 14 k’s 20 games played
His April and May look extremely similar even by traditional numbers
"There was a point after he began 2023 shot out of a cannon at Double-A Frisco following an electric 2022 Fall League stint when Luisangel looked like a potential everyday shortstop. After slashing .315/.377/.453 as a Rough Rider, Acuña was part of the Max Scherzer deal, but his surface performance has tanked since he’s joined the Mets and he’s struggling at Triple-A Syracuse so far in 2024. Even when Acuña has hit well in the past, he has had issues with chase and plate coverage. Instead, it was his remarkable bat speed, which generates surprising power for a hitter his size, that made Acuña a potential impact shortstop who lived toward the back of the Top 100 list. The way his body rotates about his hips as he swings is beautiful, and he has a certain verve and power potential that few 5-foot-8 hitters possess, but Acuña has only performed for fits and starts of the last couple of seasons.
Acuña’s hands on defense can be clumsy. He’s mostly played the middle infield, but prior to the trade, the Rangers also gave him some reps in center field and the Mets have continued to develop him there some of the time. He looks like a natural center field defender, with plus closing speed and ball skills. His ceiling as a defender there might be really high because he already looks so good despite having not played the position for very long. If he can be a plus center field defender and also play a mix of second and third base, we’re talking about a very versatile utility guy whose streaky offense would be more acceptable than if he were in an everyday role."
Which is what has been said for a while now, a good utility player
Link - ( New Window )
His April and May look extremely similar even by traditional numbers
Not that you or everyone else doesn't already know this but this is his first 200 PA in AAA. I'm hoping that the next 200 sees a lot better results. We've all seen slow starts to a new level before a breakout so hoping this is one.
He also just turned 22 in March. There's no reason to think this other than age, but I'm still holding out hope the power can develop some. I know he's never going to be a 30- guy, but 15 would be nice. But I'll take any improvement over McNeil right now.
Expectations have been tempered for me since that trade, though.
Quote:
May he has a total of 4 more hits, 1 less extra base hits, 2 less walks, 6 less k’s.
His April and May look extremely similar even by traditional numbers
Not that you or everyone else doesn't already know this but this is his first 200 PA in AAA. I'm hoping that the next 200 sees a lot better results. We've all seen slow starts to a new level before a breakout so hoping this is one.
He also just turned 22 in March. There's no reason to think this other than age, but I'm still holding out hope the power can develop some. I know he's never going to be a 30- guy, but 15 would be nice. But I'll take any improvement over McNeil right now.
Expectations have been tempered for me since that trade, though.
In fairness, he also played 37 games with the AA team last season, he was 24% worse than the league average hitter (76 wRC+) fangraphs has moved his hitting tool down to a below average future grade
Hit
30/40 (30 is current, 40 is future, 50 is average)
Quote:
May he has a total of 4 more hits, 1 less extra base hits, 2 less walks, 6 less k’s.
His April and May look extremely similar even by traditional numbers
Not that you or everyone else doesn't already know this but this is his first 200 PA in AAA. I'm hoping that the next 200 sees a lot better results. We've all seen slow starts to a new level before a breakout so hoping this is one.
He also just turned 22 in March. There's no reason to think this other than age, but I'm still holding out hope the power can develop some. I know he's never going to be a 30- guy, but 15 would be nice. But I'll take any improvement over McNeil right now.
Expectations have been tempered for me since that trade, though.
And to be clear, and I think I've been clear about this... I've stated he *hasn't* been very good so far, I haven't said he can't/won't heat up. His May hasn't been particularly great by any number anybody wants to use, traditional or advanced. Maybe the next 4 weeks look different.
Fangraphs-
Rookie-Level Hitters
Branny De Oleo, SS
Justin Ramirez, OF
Vladi Gomez, UTIL
Yensi Rivas, UTIL
De Oleo, currently in the FCL, is a projectable shortstop with bat-to-ball feel. His free-swinging approach might prevent his bat-to-ball skills from really playing, which is why he’s not yet on the main section of the list. Ramirez struck out a lot in the 2023 DSL and is back there again, but he’s a well-built outfielder with plus bat speed and probably the most explosive swing from the DSL group. Gomez (entering his second pro season) and Rivas (his first) are ultra-twitchy medium-framed hitters whose swings have natural loft.
Saw that. Has to be an error.
Don't know why they do 42. What a weird number
Quote:
Parada has been dropped out of the Mets top 42 prospects. Goodness.
Saw that. Has to be an error.
Don't know why they do 42. What a weird number
Not an error, he's mentioned later in the article. Didn't make the list.
Quote:
Parada has been dropped out of the Mets top 42 prospects. Goodness.
Saw that. Has to be an error.
Don't know why they do 42. What a weird number
Perozo, Parada (Let’s Call The Whole Thing Off)
Kevin Parada, C
Vincent Perozo, C
Parada was once a top draft prospect who has regressed as a hitter and stagnated as a defender in pro ball. When he was drafted, it was thought that he’d hit enough to be a decent big leaguer even if he had to move out from behind the plate, but that isn’t happening. Perozo is a low-ball power-hitting catcher who hasn’t been able to hit his way out of Low-A in three seasons there.
this is small sample since he only just came up to AAA but stuff is stuff (and those samples stabilize pretty quickly).
Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
·
2m
MiLB (AAA and FSL) tjStuff+ Leaders
min. 60 Pitches/GP, 25<= Age
1) George Klassen - PHI - 107
2) Eliazar Dishmey - MIA - 107
3) Chen-Wei Lin - STL - 106
4) David Festa - MIN - 105
5) Blade Tidwell - NYM - 104
Klassen is interesting because there is nothing in his college performance that indicated anything remotely like he has begun his professional career.
Quote:
In comment 16523893 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Parada has been dropped out of the Mets top 42 prospects. Goodness.
Saw that. Has to be an error.
Don't know why they do 42. What a weird number
Not an error, he's mentioned later in the article. Didn't make the list.
That's asinine. He was a top 60 prospect in the 3 big baseball rankings pre-23. He's fallen off, no question. And the Mets have a deep farm. But that's a bit overboard. He's not even 23. de Oca, who is a reliever with a 10.8 MLB career ERA is on there. He will be 29 when next season starts.
Yeah, it's hard not to be down on him. He's a bat first guy who hasn't been hitting. But he's still not 23. Has the pedigree. Could still put it together. Would I bet on it? Certainly not. But to have him out of the top 42 is bizarre.
Quote:
I'm surprised by that and I've been pretty clear I'm not a believer in Parada. I'd have him around 25 in the system
Yeah, it's hard not to be down on him. He's a bat first guy who hasn't been hitting. But he's still not 23. Has the pedigree. Could still put it together. Would I bet on it? Certainly not. But to have him out of the top 42 is bizarre.
there is no world where 28 year old bryces de montes out with TJS should be ranked ahead of parada. that is insanity.
I never really liked the FG minors rankings. Prefer BA, BP, ESPN, Athletic, Pipeline all more. They take a different perspective at times which is nice but they seem to be off more often than not.
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and ramirez #31? ive always been a big FG fan, but their rankings have gotten odd this offseason.
I never really liked the FG minors rankings. Prefer BA, BP, ESPN, Athletic, Pipeline all more. They take a different perspective at times which is nice but they seem to be off more often than not.
ive always liked how FG corresponded to grades more than some of the others, the pipeline tool grades are always a little weird. generally i take the median of all them but i always thought FG was in the top tier. now i think i veer more towards Kiley/Law. BP is good too, but i seem to only subscribe to their stuff in july if/when big trades happen.
(this is from fangraphs top 42)
Correct
"The good news is it's just inflammation," Carlos Mendoza said.
"The good news is it's just inflammation," Carlos Mendoza said.
this is getting awfully close to when jdg exited like 5 games in a row in the 1st/2nd innings and they kept saying he was fine. there is definitely something there with Senga that is murky medically (hence the TJS/IL provision in his contract).
btw i had never read that option in full - "2028 Option kicks in if the player has Tommy John surgery or a right elbow injury that keeps him on the IL for 130+ days"
i assume none of the IL time so far this year counts towards that 130 days but that's interesting phrasing i hadnt noticed. this year has been shoulder and now triceps right?
LINK - ( New Window )
Arizona used to have a "well regarded" IFA signing... Jose Jose
3B/1b Nick Lorusso OPS is now up to .938. He has nothing more to prove in the SAL. His OPS for both April and May is over .930. Lorusso will be 24 in September. PROMOTE!
@SNY_Mets
Brandon Sproat tonight for Double-A Binghamton:
7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
glad they drafted sproat the second time. him and tidwell both interesting coming up behind scott. actual velocity for the first time this decade.
i was a little skeptical of the SP hype heading into the season but glad to appear to have been wrong.
@SyracuseMets
Let's hear it for José!👏
Butto has been named International League Pitcher of the week for the week of May 20-26! Butto made two starts for Syracuse against SWB this past week, only allowing four hits, two walks, and NO runs through 11IP, as well as striking out 11 batters.
A few adjustments have paid off for Mets prospect Luisangel Acuña.
On May 1, Acuña’s batting average was .216.
Now, it’s .254.
A few weeks ago, Triple-A coaches J.P. Arencibia and Collin Hetzler worked with Acuña on tightening his swing and lowering his leg kick. They also wanted him to stay back more instead of trying to go out and get pitches. It worked. Acuña, a right-handed batter, is racking up more hits — and hitting more balls in the air to left field.
“He got off to a rough start,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “It says a lot for a young player playing on the Triple-A level that is going through struggles and they continue to fight and now we’re seeing results.
“There’s been some adjustments with him, but basically sticking to his routine. It is important for him to go through those struggles and get through it and fight through it. You hate to see players get to the big-league level and never have to face adversity. So, for him to start getting results as of late is good to see.”
Acuña, the brother of Atlanta star Ronald Acuña Jr. (out for the season because of an ACL injury), is on the Mets’ 40-man roster. He has split time this season at shortstop, second base and center field, playing all three positions well, according to evaluators.
he would be a very useful player on the big league roster with his defensive versatility should they move on from any of their OF'ers via trade. McNeil could kick to RF part time with marte and Acuna could play some 2b while backing up Lindor and playing some CF. i assume in the next few weeks iglesias will get a call up whenever they decide how to adjust roster around baty/vientos, but would think if acuna can continue making good adjustments a late june/early july call up could be there for him.
an interesting note at the end on ozre too:
The Mets have used a bunch of relievers and don’t need to add anyone to their 40-man roster yet. But when the time arises again, it’s worth keeping in mind right-hander Eric Orze. He’s an under-the-radar arm impressing some evaluators, who love his whiff rate. Baseball Savant has tracked 414 of Orze’s pitches. Batters have swung and missed at 66 of them. That’s good for 15.9 percent, which is top among the dozen Mets minor-leaguers who have thrown at least 400 tracked pitches via Baseball Savant.
Orze’s splitter is his best pitch, but he increased velocity on his four-seam fastball to 95 mph and improved command of his slider. In 24 1/3 innings, the 26-year-old has a 3.70 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 15 walks (over his last 17 innings, he has walked just five).
Five Mets takeaways: Luisangel Acuña heats up, Kodai Senga’s cryptic comments and more - ( New Window )
“If you get to the point where you feel that you’re not going to make the playoffs, and we’re way, way ahead of ourselves on that. But if they get to that deadline and they feel they need to be sellers than buyers, I feel you have to trade him.”