some Sunday reading a week after the draft, the article I wrote below dives deep on the state of the roster and how the new regime has invested it's draft picks.
After 3 years I think there are 2 key takeaways:
1. They have spent the majority of the "draft capital" on premium positions.
Going by cumulative draft capital value from the classic Jimmy Johnson trade chart the NYG themselves utilize in their war room, the 4 positions they’ve most invested in are:
WR (cumulative draft capital = 2300 points, 1600 in 2024)
OL (cumulative draft capital = 2100 points, 0 in 2024)
EDGE (cumulative draft capital = 2100 points, 550 in 2024)
CB (cumulative draft capital = 1200 points, 240 in 2024) |
2. While conventional wisdom is that this is still a bad roster at the beginning of a rebuild, it's actually more down the road than many realize. The majority of it is homegrown players entering their 2nd or 3rd seasons. The most important of them playing the premium positions mentioned in point #1. This chart compares the roster experience levels of the offensive/defensive starters projected by Dan Duggan a few days ago to the last 2 SB rosters:
So net/net while we all talk a lot about the most premium position a lot (for good reason), i think we should expect to see a team this year that is at least in alignment performance wise with where they have spent most of their draft picks which should mean:
WRs who make more big plays than average
Not-embarrassing OL
Explosive pass rush
Competent secondary
Eventually they will obviously need to draft a QB but what they haven’t yet done can’t stop us from evaluating their record with guys they’ve actually picked. Not selecting a franchise QB through 3 drafts shouldn’t be a “get out of jail free” card.
if the guys they've chosen dont produce tangible improvement in the areas they’ve strategically invested in, why should the current decision making and development processes continue going forward?
Assessing Giants Roster After 3 Drafts - (
New Window )
The ability to admit a mistake a move on is critical in this industry. The Giants really seem to struggle in this department.
There is a very short list of people who develop late that it really isn't with hanging on to after a few years.
The defense is very much going to be a work in progress in 2024.
This team has a ton of work....gelling a new OL, learning a new defensive system....
i think that's right. coughlin's roster entering year 4 had more rookie scale players entering > year 3, which is sort of obvious. if this regime gets to a year 4 they will too.
coughlin's first 3 years were:
6-10
11-5
8-8
25-23 (0-2 in playoffs).
sitting at 15-18-1 the last 2 years it doesn't seem like such a tall ask for at least a .500 or better season that shows some roster quality progress.
The defense is very much going to be a work in progress in 2024.
it may or may not be. steve spagnuolo was new in 2007 too. dan quinn did good right when he arrived in dallas and i think that was a bigger schematic change from nolan.
coordinator changes are so much more common these days it's just part of the decision making soup. if dabs/schoen got the choice right, bowen will be a positive impact this year. if they didnt at it to the list of disappointment.
you could but i didnt see it as that meaningful of a data point. toomer was a shell of what he is was in 2000 by 2007.
i basically bucketed everyone like that in the "2nd contract draft picks" category but that group gets hard to parse because as an example this regime both inherited and decided to keep thomas, lawrence, jones, slayton. i dont remember if strahan and/or toomer were extended after coughlin had arrived.
i dont think that's knowable or true and even if it were those guys have never been DCs before so id have even more questions with them than bowen.
i think if anything their top choice was the carolina DC who they retained because he seems very highly regarded around the league.
The defense is very much going to be a work in progress in 2024.
that's exactly the point bill.
they used high draft picks on these guys, to improve specific positions, did they get the picks right?
we will know if those positions are good or bad.
Solid, positive improvement then limited changes (who TBD). If it's really bad then significant changes should be made beyond just the players. Who and how many injuries a factor in the evaluation.
I think we are, just missing the most important ingredient in the QB
The QB is subpar. If we are to be fair amd assess the draft this is a big negative. You have to "overcome it" and that doesn't happen overnight -- but for sure it can be done.
The RB is subpar.
The OL is mediocre at best.
The TE's are subpar.
On Offense there is only one strenght and it's not the QB.
The Defense is "pretty good."
This remains a rebuilding team. Maybe the following year.
Solid, positive improvement then limited changes (who TBD). If it's really bad then significant changes should be made beyond just the players. Who and how many injuries a factor in the evaluation.
agreed all around.
bricillo and bowen were 2 key hires for the reasons you mentioned and arguably 2 of the 3 biggest decisions daboll/schoen made this offseason.
imagine the difference next year if bricillo is the next scarnecchia or bowen does what jim schwartz has done a half dozen times?
if they end up the next bobby johnson/columbo/bettcher/wink then i dont see a 4th year for daboll.
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If you removed the names from the roster and just had the positions, ages, and contracts you'd say this is a team that's built to compete now. They're in their window.
I think we are, just missing the most important ingredient in the QB
Being in the window to compete, but the O/U it's set at 6.5...that's a blinking neon sign that something is wrong.
But it just comes back to QB. I have no faith in Jones at all talent wise and I think there’s a legit chance he done mentally.
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In comment 16506866 Go Terps said:
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If you removed the names from the roster and just had the positions, ages, and contracts you'd say this is a team that's built to compete now. They're in their window.
I think we are, just missing the most important ingredient in the QB
Being in the window to compete, but the O/U it's set at 6.5...that's a blinking neon sign that something is wrong.
o/u in 2007 was 8. regular season eli had the worst year of his career and they still won 10.
they made their choices at qb this year with each of jones, lock, devito. qb should not be a get out of jail free card. just last year cleveland won 11 with the corpse of flacco, mayfield won 9, geno won 9, pickett/rudolph combined for 10, indy won 9 with minshew, raiders won 8 with oconnell/jimmyg.
For several of the players it will probably be a return to something more familiar anyway.
For several of the players it will probably be a return to something more familiar anyway.
There will be growing pains and it is a very young secondary
I'm not a big fan of complex systems. It's hard to develop players. Also if that coach leaves, it complicates finding a new coach with a compatible system.
Even though Gilbride brought some success, he had said his offense took 2-3 years for a player to learn. I prefer systems like the Rams where there's innovation but not over complication.
Appreciate that Sean, I'm right there with you, and i will say a week later i do think you were right that last week Schoen + Dabs definitely stamped their image of the team.
I still think they owned the roster fully after year 1 but the way they spent their picks were very much a double down of their big picture. WR at 6, Edge (via Burns), 2xDB.
i think we can say they believe in passing the ball, rushing the passer, and defending the pass.
I'm not a big fan of complex systems. It's hard to develop players. Also if that coach leaves, it complicates finding a new coach with a compatible system.
Even though Gilbride brought some success, he had said his offense took 2-3 years for a player to learn. I prefer systems like the Rams where there's innovation but not over complication.
i think this is correct. i heard something this year id never heard before that the shanahan (mcvay) system is a lot easier for pass protection. i think the way the CBA changed things the easier everyone's jobs are the better.
i think that's probably also why there is so much 2 safety and zone played on defense now.
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... Learning a new system.
For several of the players it will probably be a return to something more familiar anyway.
There will be growing pains and it is a very young secondary
But I don't expect it will be due to a new system.
i think we should be positive in the sense that there is potential. a lot of youth that has been in the program and presumably chosen because they were seen as a good fit.
will the players they have already drafted develop and succeed? i dont really have a prediction for that.
im confident burns and nabers are studs individually but will the units succeed? honestly could see a very wide range of outcomes either way.
The defense is very much going to be a work in progress in 2024.
Agreed. Like it or not the defensive players being brought in catered to Winks blitz heavy scheme. We saw tremendous development from a few of our picks, Thibodeaux, McFadden and Banks made major progress in Winks scheme. We shall see how the defense looks when guys are asked to read and react or dare I say drop back into a zone. I hope Bowen knows what he’s doing because one thing about Wink was he knew exactly what he wanted.
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the fly in the ointment is the new DC and new defensive approach, which also includes a secondary that is seeking to build a new identity.
The defense is very much going to be a work in progress in 2024.
Agreed. Like it or not the defensive players being brought in catered to Winks blitz heavy scheme. We saw tremendous development from a few of our picks, Thibodeaux, McFadden and Banks made major progress in Winks scheme. We shall see how the defense looks when guys are asked to read and react or dare I say drop back into a zone. I hope Bowen knows what he’s doing because one thing about Wink was he knew exactly what he wanted.
Wink’s defense sucked. I’d argue he stunted Thibs development with the way he deployed him. I’d wager we see a breakout year from Thibs; I expect the tandem of Thibs and Burns to be very impactful. I’m excited about this defense, think we have a chance to be top 10, playoff caliber on that side of the ball.
+1
I said this right before the draft...you can argue draft strategy all you want, but if you can't pick quality players, strategy doesn't matter. If you can choose well, then position strategy can be optimized.
Right now, the huge swing and a miss seems to be Neal, and virtually everyone said he was going to be decent/good/better.
Up until this draft the only impact players are really Thomas on offense and Dex on defense. And both of them were inherited by this regime. You can say Burns too but that was somewhat of a swap with trading away Leonard Williams.
More please.
Up until this draft the only impact players are really Thomas on offense and Dex on defense. And both of them were inherited by this regime. You can say Burns too but that was somewhat of a swap with trading away Leonard Williams.
More please.
Impact players. Let’s say those are players in the 80th percentile - top 20% at their position. On defense - I think Dex and Burns are tnere. Okereke and Thibs are close, with Thibs having room to grow. Banks has potential. Nubin we’ll hve to see; but the cupboard is not bare.
On offense - AT stands alone. Nabers has the potential to be an impact player. Still need one or two more on that side of the ball. Hyatt has enough traits where he could be a piece; big year two coming up for him.
Thibs is not close. Let’s see how they deploy him with Wink gone and if he and Burns help each other. Take away his Washington games and he isn’t bringing it.
i agree they need a few of their draft picks to be impact players. that's basically what the season rides on.
they have hit a lot of singles on draft picks but need a couple to turn into homers.