I see a lot of talk about the rebuild being delayed by the unexpected 2022 etc. and how we're years away, but if you look at the roster, every single key contributor was either drafted, or signed by Schoen:
QB - Jones, Lock
RB - Gray, Tracy
WR - Nabers
WR - Robinson
WR - Hyatt/Slayton
TE - Bellinger, Johnson
LT - Thomas
LG - Runyan, Ezeudu
C - Schmitz
RG - Eluemunor
RT - Neal
---------
DT - Nunes-Roches
NT - Dexter
OLB - Burns
ILB - Okereke
ILB - McFadden
OLB - Thibs
CB - Banks
CB - Phillips
CB - Flott
S - Nubin
S - Pinnock
We're 3 years into this thing. They've hand-picked the entire roster. 3 Top 10 picks. 3 max contracts. And more big $$$ deals including the QB. I see expectations are generally low coming off such a miserable year, but you can't argue the "everything that could've gone wrong did" angle. Lots of bad luck.
The point? I think it's fair to expect solid results this year. Given the significant resources invested in this roster, why shouldn't we expect a playoff team, bare minimum?
they went 5-6 without jones last year and neither of those things happened. 1 win vs playoff teams with each qb (tyrod philly, devito gb) and 1 almost win vs playoff teams from each of them as well (tyrod buf, devito LAR).
tyrod was mediocre, devito had a few good games but played bad enough to lose his job to tyrod when he was healthy.
only blow out was dallas and i dont blame the qbs for defense giving up 49.
they chose their QBs to live or die with in the standings.
If the Giants are both a bad football team, and the decision they made to stick with Jones blows up in embarrassing fashion, the crowd, media, and fan reaction will rival the Judge quarterback sneak game.
No one should feel safe if that's the atmosphere.
Oh boy. BBI would go nuclear.
I doubt it. The majority will go along with whatever they do. There will be initial anger, and then whomever they draft will be the greatest thing ever the following May.
Oh boy. BBI would go nuclear.
No they wouldn't. About 5 people would. It was always there in plain sight. If $23 mill means he goes away, then it may mean a celebration...
they went 5-6 without jones last year and neither of those things happened.
Last year is a markedly different story. They went into the season with institutional and presumed fan support in Jones.
Jones v. 2024 has diminished institutional cache and if this site is a +/-25% accurate barometer of fan sentiment, is hanging by a thread.
If they made an embarrassing decision with Jones and they lose double digit games, a heart beat from Lock and DeVito isn't saving jobs.
Oh boy. BBI would go nuclear.
No they wouldn't. About 5 people would. It was always there in plain sight. If $23 mill means he goes away, then it may mean a celebration...
You're kidding, right?
If Jones survives the season and is cut his 2025 dead money hit is 22M.
If Jones re-tears his ACL his 2025 dead money hit is 45M.
The fans and the media will be irate.
I just don't think it matters as much as we think it does. If Jones suffers a career ending neck injury, they'll support him and empathize with him as opposed to getting pissy about an additional $23M which they'll need to pay.
The Giants are a committee run team. It's why I always add some context around what has happened at QB since Schoen took over. If you don't think ownership had a strong preference about how QB was handled, just go read the quotes. It's all out there including the day Schoen was hired.
There are two clear moments which happened that set the franchise back:
1. Eli crying in the locker room in 2017.
2. The Minnesota playoff win.
Both those moments led to a course of action which hurt the franchise.
Quote:
then obviously the injury becomes almost irrelevant in terms of daboll/schoen.
they went 5-6 without jones last year and neither of those things happened.
Last year is a markedly different story. They went into the season with institutional and presumed fan support in Jones.
Jones v. 2024 has diminished institutional cache and if this site is a +/-25% accurate barometer of fan sentiment, is hanging by a thread.
If they made an embarrassing decision with Jones and they lose double digit games, a heart beat from Lock and DeVito isn't saving jobs.
if they lose double digit games nothing is saving them so it doesn't matter. jones could put up josh allen stats, if they lose double digits daboll is still probably gone.
My point is Schoen/Daboll's credibility will be in the cross hairs of the fans and media.
And if you add no confidence in the management/coaching + a losing product on the field, things will get ugly.
Quote:
If Jones gets injured & the Giants have to eat the $23 million on his ‘25 salary…
Oh boy. BBI would go nuclear.
No they wouldn't. About 5 people would. It was always there in plain sight. If $23 mill means he goes away, then it may mean a celebration...
You're kidding, right?
If Jones survives the season and is cut his 2025 dead money hit is 22M.
If Jones re-tears his ACL his 2025 dead money hit is 45M.
The fans and the media will be irate.
I'm not sure they would be. They're not irate now and this franchise has been the picture of incompetence.
The Giants' calendar year is a roller coaster with the low point usually being around Halloween and the high point almost always being in May.
they went 5-6 without jones last year and neither of those things happened.
Last year is a markedly different story. They went into the season with institutional and presumed fan support in Jones.
Jones v. 2024 has diminished institutional cache and if this site is a +/-25% accurate barometer of fan sentiment, is hanging by a thread.
If they made an embarrassing decision with Jones and they lose double digit games, a heart beat from Lock and DeVito isn't saving jobs.
if they lose double digit games nothing is saving them so it doesn't matter. jones could put up josh allen stats, if they lose double digits daboll is still probably gone.
I disagree. If Jones has a CPOY type year and the team is in contention after Thanksgiving, I think Daboll gets another year. 7-10 with the arrow pointing in the right direction is enough.
The Packers were 6-8 on December 17th last year. A 6-8 Giants team will likely be in contention mid-December and if they miss out on the tournament but play go toe-to-toe with in the NFCE, the stadium won't get ugly.
Quote:
If Jones gets injured & the Giants have to eat the $23 million on his ‘25 salary…
Oh boy. BBI would go nuclear.
No they wouldn't. About 5 people would. It was always there in plain sight. If $23 mill means he goes away, then it may mean a celebration...
You're kidding, right?
If Jones survives the season and is cut his 2025 dead money hit is 22M.
If Jones re-tears his ACL his 2025 dead money hit is 45M.
The fans and the media will be irate.
Oops, forgot the bonus money outstanding...good observation
The media will be irate? Eff the media - the media should never enter this kind of conversation.
In any point, Jones is playing this year. Whether he gets hurt or not it is already built into the equation. They are stuck with him. The only way out is a post June 1st cut after he clears medically but he still gets $47 mill this year.
Green Bay was missing four starters. WFT traded two players from the DL and the outstanding 2022 D stunk in 2023. Pats were a mess. Eagles "replaced" the DC and were also a mess and then got blown out by TB in the playoffs. Traveling west to east coast (Rams) is not easy. Giants has a very 2nd half schedule.
Oops, forgot the bonus money outstanding...good observation
The media will be irate? Eff the media - the media should never enter this kind of conversation.
In any point, Jones is playing this year. Whether he gets hurt or not it is already built into the equation. They are stuck with him. The only way out is a post June 1st cut after he clears medically but he still gets $47 mill this year.
You dance with the girl you brought to prom, and in this case the media is part of it. The media is an input and output of the fans, and Mara reacts.
Imagine a headline: Giants Fall to 4-10, Jones Re-Tears ACL
Sub-Head: Injury likely nets Jones $23 Million
If I'm Schoen, I don't show up Monday.
Quote:
If Jones gets injured & the Giants have to eat the $23 million on his ‘25 salary…
Oh boy. BBI would go nuclear.
I doubt it. The majority will go along with whatever they do. There will be initial anger, and then whomever they draft will be the greatest thing ever the following May.
If I can't fix it, I'm not going to invest in anger. (Aside from initial shock)
Quote:
In comment 16513330 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
If Jones gets injured & the Giants have to eat the $23 million on his ‘25 salary…
Oh boy. BBI would go nuclear.
I doubt it. The majority will go along with whatever they do. There will be initial anger, and then whomever they draft will be the greatest thing ever the following May.
I know that it can feel that way, but for most is less about "going along" and more about moving on.
If I can't fix it, I'm not going to invest in anger. (Aside from initial shock)
I think you can move on and still accept the people making the decisions are making bad decisions. I try to look at the situation as though I were looking at a team I didn't care about.
If you took the Giants' exact situation and put it on the Seahawks or Jaguars, I'd have no problem saying that team is a complete mess from ownership on down. Why should the Giants be any different?
Quote:
if there are seats empty in december because they are out of it, there will be jobs empty. no need to over complicate.
The Packers were 6-8 on December 17th last year. A 6-8 Giants team will likely be in contention mid-December and if they miss out on the tournament but play go toe-to-toe with in the NFCE, the stadium won't get ugly.
this was last year's playoff picture on 11/29 with the giants at 4-8 entering their bye week on 2 game winning streak, the packers entered december 5-6 at the time of this chart (and then were 6-6 after 12/3).
needless to say even though there was only 1 win seperating them, there is a very big difference between being .500 at the start of december and 4 games under. 6-6 for nyg would be a 50% win improvement and almost the same type of boost in their playoff odds:
if daboll is again 4 under .500 or worse after Thanksgiving with playoff odds at near 0 it is over barring a miraculous winning streak that gets them to 8 or 9 wins.
Quote:
Oops, forgot the bonus money outstanding...good observation
The media will be irate? Eff the media - the media should never enter this kind of conversation.
In any point, Jones is playing this year. Whether he gets hurt or not it is already built into the equation. They are stuck with him. The only way out is a post June 1st cut after he clears medically but he still gets $47 mill this year.
You dance with the girl you brought to prom, and in this case the media is part of it. The media is an input and output of the fans, and Mara reacts.
Imagine a headline: Giants Fall to 4-10, Jones Re-Tears ACL
Sub-Head: Injury likely nets Jones $23 Million
If I'm Schoen, I don't show up Monday.
If he doesn't show up Monday, then can him!
I am resigned to Jones for another year. I cannot believe that the entire FO has not thought of this and hasn't discussed a plan and that JM is not part of that conversation.
I think they'll be better than last year, but only if Bricillo fixes the line. IMHO, this season depends heavily on Bricillo. I am not going to say he is more important than Daboll and Bowen, but probably more important than Kafka.
I think they're both safe unless there's a combination of 10+ loss season and one of:
- A major Jones injury
- One of the QBs they passed on lights them/or the league up
I would guess many fans wouldn't be surprised at all of Porcelain Jones goes down again. In fact, I would guess most expect it. And then the conversation should shift to whether Lock was the right insurance policy if he plays poorly.
I couldn't agree more how bad this will look if our season goes sideways and McCarthy or Nix (assuming Penix won't play) hit.
I would also toss in the OL. The OL situation is Schoen's biggest mistake outside of the Jones contract. He's essentially in revamp #3.
Quote:
The pitchforks haven't come out for Schoen or Daboll yet, so we don't know how they'll react if that time comes.
I think they're both safe unless there's a combination of 10+ loss season and one of:
- A major Jones injury
- One of the QBs they passed on lights them/or the league up
I would guess many fans wouldn't be surprised at all of Porcelain Jones goes down again. In fact, I would guess most expect it. And then the conversation should shift to whether Lock was the right insurance policy if he plays poorly.
I couldn't agree more how bad this will look if our season goes sideways and McCarthy or Nix (assuming Penix won't play) hit.
I would also toss in the OL. The OL situation is Schoen's biggest mistake outside of the Jones contract. He's essentially in revamp #3.
So it’s Schoen’s fault that literally every O line pick he has made has gotten hurt
Spin away
Quote:
In comment 16513317 christian said:
Quote:
The pitchforks haven't come out for Schoen or Daboll yet, so we don't know how they'll react if that time comes.
I think they're both safe unless there's a combination of 10+ loss season and one of:
- A major Jones injury
- One of the QBs they passed on lights them/or the league up
I would guess many fans wouldn't be surprised at all of Porcelain Jones goes down again. In fact, I would guess most expect it. And then the conversation should shift to whether Lock was the right insurance policy if he plays poorly.
I couldn't agree more how bad this will look if our season goes sideways and McCarthy or Nix (assuming Penix won't play) hit.
I would also toss in the OL. The OL situation is Schoen's biggest mistake outside of the Jones contract. He's essentially in revamp #3.
So it’s Schoen’s fault that literally every O line pick he has made has gotten hurt
Spin away
that would be a more compelling point if the injury replacements off waivers for neal, ezeudu, mckethan, etc weren't generally better than the guys he drafted.
this was last year's playoff picture on 11/29 with the giants at 4-8 entering their bye week on 2 game winning streak, the packers entered december 5-6 at the time of this chart (and then were 6-6 after 12/3).
needless to say even though there was only 1 win seperating them, there is a very big difference between being .500 at the start of december and 4 games under. 6-6 for nyg would be a 50% win improvement and almost the same type of boost in their playoff odds:
if daboll is again 4 under .500 or worse after Thanksgiving with playoff odds at near 0 it is over barring a miraculous winning streak that gets them to 8 or 9 wins.
I agree with the bolded. The sentiment I disagree with is:
A team can lose 10 games ultimately, but have been in the hunt, and fill the stadium. And if Jones has an MVP vote season, Daboll will definitely get good grace from that.
I'll go with my stance -- the Giants need to lose 10 games + some additional embarrassing factor (Jones goes down, they get outclassed by a QB they had a chance at, they lose 12+ games, etc.)
Quote:
In comment 16513436 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16513317 christian said:
Quote:
The pitchforks haven't come out for Schoen or Daboll yet, so we don't know how they'll react if that time comes.
I think they're both safe unless there's a combination of 10+ loss season and one of:
- A major Jones injury
- One of the QBs they passed on lights them/or the league up
I would guess many fans wouldn't be surprised at all of Porcelain Jones goes down again. In fact, I would guess most expect it. And then the conversation should shift to whether Lock was the right insurance policy if he plays poorly.
I couldn't agree more how bad this will look if our season goes sideways and McCarthy or Nix (assuming Penix won't play) hit.
I would also toss in the OL. The OL situation is Schoen's biggest mistake outside of the Jones contract. He's essentially in revamp #3.
So it’s Schoen’s fault that literally every O line pick he has made has gotten hurt
Spin away
that would be a more compelling point if the injury replacements off waivers for neal, ezeudu, mckethan, etc weren't generally better than the guys he drafted.
McKethan- missed entire 1st year
2nd year- missed almost all of camp….then due to injuries was thrown in and not ready
Ezudu- missed most of year 1- injury
Year 2- played out of position…then got hurt
JMS- had ups and downs- was hurt most of 2nd half of year
Neal- struggled, but was hurt most of the time
Outside of Phillips…who were these replacements who played noticeably better
I think they're both safe unless there's a combination of 10+ loss season and one of:
- A major Jones injury
- One of the QBs they passed on lights them/or the league up
I would guess many fans wouldn't be surprised at all of Porcelain Jones goes down again. In fact, I would guess most expect it. And then the conversation should shift to whether Lock was the right insurance policy if he plays poorly.
I couldn't agree more how bad this will look if our season goes sideways and McCarthy or Nix (assuming Penix won't play) hit.
I would also toss in the OL. The OL situation is Schoen's biggest mistake outside of the Jones contract. He's essentially in revamp #3.
Don't forget Wilson. If he has a CPOY season and lights the Giants up, in the midst of a bad season, it will get ugly too.
Quote:
The Packers were 6-8 on December 17th last year. A 6-8 Giants team will likely be in contention mid-December and if they miss out on the tournament but play go toe-to-toe with in the NFCE, the stadium won't get ugly.
this was last year's playoff picture on 11/29 with the giants at 4-8 entering their bye week on 2 game winning streak, the packers entered december 5-6 at the time of this chart (and then were 6-6 after 12/3).
needless to say even though there was only 1 win seperating them, there is a very big difference between being .500 at the start of december and 4 games under. 6-6 for nyg would be a 50% win improvement and almost the same type of boost in their playoff odds:
if daboll is again 4 under .500 or worse after Thanksgiving with playoff odds at near 0 it is over barring a miraculous winning streak that gets them to 8 or 9 wins.
I agree with the bolded. The sentiment I disagree with is:
Quote:
if they lose double digit games nothing is saving them so it doesn't matter. jones could put up josh allen stats, if they lose double digits daboll is still probably gone.
A team can lose 10 games ultimately, but have been in the hunt, and fill the stadium. And if Jones has an MVP vote season, Daboll will definitely get good grace from that.
threading a very fine needle there. if they are 7-6 with jones and in it but he gets hurt and they lose 4 in a row without him, that's pretty much the only scenario where daboll gets some good grace because of jones.
if jones loses 10 or more games his stats wont matter w/r/t daboll's career prospects. the only way for jones to put up good numbers and lose that many games is that daboll blew another DC hiring or coached a sloppy team that lost a lot of games they shouldnt have with turnovers or ST mistakes.
either way there is almost no scenario worth imagining that changes the basic math - 10+ losses again and dabs survival rate is well below 10%.
Quote:
Despite cap restraints they went to the playoffs and won in the playoffs their first year here. The faltered in their second year under the burden of similar cap restraints, crushing injuries and a much tougher schedule. Despite all that there were positive signs. In the latter half of the season their play improved. They signed an UDFA QB who played better than half of the first round QB's drafted in recent years.
This is the first year they've had the ability to be aggressive in free agency. JS / BD are the best GM/Coach combo the Giants have had since long before Coughlin left. I for one am not looking for an excuse to show them the door.
Could not agree more. We need to lose this sort of punitive mentality where we fire people strictly on the basis of "holding people accountable" or almost as a form of punishment. Fire someone if you are convinced you have a replacement in mind that can do a better job. Don't just fire someone based on some platitude.
A place of consistent competitiveness can take time to reach. Things aren't always going to progress in perfectly linear fashion.
Big year 3 coming but I am looking forward to seeing a young team with talent find their way.
Quote:
The 2023 team really could have gone 3-14 with a few bounces. A 6-11 season in 2024 would be an embarrassment and *should* result in cleaning house. But with this organization who knows; they could be 5-11 and draw major positive conclusions from a meaningless week 17 win. We've seen that before.
I'll say the Giants need to get back to a point where 7-9 was considered a bad season, not 3-14. Fassel's tenure is a good example. He had a lot of 7-9/8-8 seasons and was ultimately fired after 4-12.
At some point this franchise started to take positives from 5-11 type seasons. I'll never forget Gettleman & Shurmur at the podium referencing how the Giants improved from 3 wins to 5 and selling it as progress.
This is the primary problem with the Giants as an organization lately. It is the same one that plagues my NY Islanders - lowering expectations every year, to the point where the end of year press conference is to point out why a disappointing season should actually be considered successful.
I don't like the constant turnover at GM and HC, but I also don't like the view that we will hire guys and then keep them for a really long time, regardless of how they perform. There needs to be some expectation for what is expected out of a year, and if it is not met you have a period of time to correct it or we'll find someone else who can.
I agree Near MVP Jones and 10 losses are virtually mutual exclusive, so that's not worth debating.
I completely disagree with the odds otherwise.
7-10 with a CPOY caliber season from Jones, and in the playoff hunt in December? I'd give Daboll a 99% chance of returning.
Quote:
In comment 16513279 Go Terps said:
Quote:
The 2023 team really could have gone 3-14 with a few bounces. A 6-11 season in 2024 would be an embarrassment and *should* result in cleaning house. But with this organization who knows; they could be 5-11 and draw major positive conclusions from a meaningless week 17 win. We've seen that before.
I'll say the Giants need to get back to a point where 7-9 was considered a bad season, not 3-14. Fassel's tenure is a good example. He had a lot of 7-9/8-8 seasons and was ultimately fired after 4-12.
At some point this franchise started to take positives from 5-11 type seasons. I'll never forget Gettleman & Shurmur at the podium referencing how the Giants improved from 3 wins to 5 and selling it as progress.
This is the primary problem with the Giants as an organization lately. It is the same one that plagues my NY Islanders - lowering expectations every year, to the point where the end of year press conference is to point out why a disappointing season should actually be considered successful.
I don't like the constant turnover at GM and HC, but I also don't like the view that we will hire guys and then keep them for a really long time, regardless of how they perform. There needs to be some expectation for what is expected out of a year, and if it is not met you have a period of time to correct it or we'll find someone else who can.
I don't think the Giants have had a coherent vision on building towards contention at any point since 2017 (2017, of course, blew up in our faces). It's been a rudderless franchise.
So it’s Schoen’s fault that literally every O line pick he has made has gotten hurt
No, but it's Schoen's fault that nearly every OL outside of Thomas has rarely played well when healthy.
Quote:
So it’s Schoen’s fault that literally every O line pick he has made has gotten hurt
No, but it's Schoen's fault that nearly every OL outside of Thomas has rarely played well when healthy.
Combine injuries, lack of experience and terrible coaching….not a recipe for success
This year will tell a lot
Quote:
So it’s Schoen’s fault that literally every O line pick he has made has gotten hurt
No, but it's Schoen's fault that nearly every OL outside of Thomas has rarely played well when healthy.
Some of that I also lay at the feet of the coaching staff. They spent too much time in the offseason trying to tweak to find the perfect combination rather than using the limited reps to develop chemistry.
7-10 with a CPOY caliber season from Jones, and in the playoff hunt in December? I'd give Daboll a 99% chance of returning.
squaring 7-10 with being "in a playoff hunt" is where you lose me but it doesnt matter.
i think getting to 8 or 9 wins with jones sucking is a better outcome for daboll than 7 or fewer wins but a good season for jones. do you disagree with that?
Quote:
In comment 16513447 Mbavaro said:
Quote:
So it’s Schoen’s fault that literally every O line pick he has made has gotten hurt
No, but it's Schoen's fault that nearly every OL outside of Thomas has rarely played well when healthy.
Some of that I also lay at the feet of the coaching staff. They spent too much time in the offseason trying to tweak to find the perfect combination rather than using the limited reps to develop chemistry.
4 of the 5 positions were set going into the year
At the same time….need to develop position flexibility
Have no problem with that
At the same time…when you still can’t pick up a stunt in week 17…that is a coaching issue and hopefully that will be fixed
Combine injuries, lack of experience and terrible coaching….not a recipe for success
This year will tell a lot
This really comes across as a lot of excuse making for Schoen. I just don't think it's wise to dispel the idea that Schoen just might not be good at evaluating and building an OL. Which is why I raised the point in the first place that OL should be considered a major issue attached to Schoen heading into 2024.
Didn't Bobby Johnson come with questions when Daboll brought him over?
No doubt worst hire of the staff.
i think getting to 8 or 9 wins with jones sucking is a better outcome for daboll than 7 or fewer wins but a good season for jones. do you disagree with that?
I think the Giants were technically eliminated from the playoffs week 16 last year. So a 7-win team could conceivably be in real contention week 17 or 18. Which avoids the empty seats in December scenario you referenced above.
So my rough guesses:
Playoffs = Definitely Back
7ish+ Wins = Likely Back
4-7ish Wins + some additional embarrassment = Likely Gone
0-4ish Wins = Definitely Gone
Schoen started with AT at left tackle and he had the benefit of him having his first season being healthy. If Neal played to his draft slot the Giants would be in a pretty good spot.
No doubt worst hire of the staff.
The Bills had mixed results under Johnson. Underwhelming in 2019, well regarded in 2020, middle-of-the-road in 2021.
Name me a head coach where 💯 of their initial hires worked out?
I’ll be waiting
Quote:
Combine injuries, lack of experience and terrible coaching….not a recipe for success
This year will tell a lot
This really comes across as a lot of excuse making for Schoen. I just don't think it's wise to dispel the idea that Schoen just might not be good at evaluating and building an OL. Which is why I raised the point in the first place that OL should be considered a major issue attached to Schoen heading into 2024.
Facts….which they are…aren’t excuses….
If they didn’t have health issues and terrible coaching….then my opinion would be different
Give them a year of good health and good coaching…then we will see
Quote:
In comment 16513337 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16513330 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
If Jones gets injured & the Giants have to eat the $23 million on his ‘25 salary…
Oh boy. BBI would go nuclear.
I doubt it. The majority will go along with whatever they do. There will be initial anger, and then whomever they draft will be the greatest thing ever the following May.
I know that it can feel that way, but for most is less about "going along" and more about moving on.
If I can't fix it, I'm not going to invest in anger. (Aside from initial shock)
I think you can move on and still accept the people making the decisions are making bad decisions. I try to look at the situation as though I were looking at a team I didn't care about.
If you took the Giants' exact situation and put it on the Seahawks or Jaguars, I'd have no problem saying that team is a complete mess from ownership on down. Why should the Giants be any different?
I guess that I just enjoy the process of watching it all happen, have a few opinions and prepare for the season.
Once the team is set, Im done with the FO decisions and spend more energy on the season and the task at hand.
Quote:
squaring 7-10 with being "in a playoff hunt" is where you lose me but it doesnt matter.
i think getting to 8 or 9 wins with jones sucking is a better outcome for daboll than 7 or fewer wins but a good season for jones. do you disagree with that?
I think the Giants were technically eliminated from the playoffs week 16 last year. So a 7-win team could conceivably be in real contention week 17 or 18. Which avoids the empty seats in December scenario you referenced above.
So my rough guesses:
Playoffs = Definitely Back
7ish+ Wins = Likely Back
4-7ish Wins + some additional embarrassment = Likely Gone
0-4ish Wins = Definitely Gone
i think you are getting a little too caught up in numbers.
improvement = definitely back
stagnation = probably not back
regression = definitely not back
even 8 wins feels like stagnation to me since they showed they can do better than that with a worse roster in 2022.
8 wins could be a replay of last year except with a healthy gano to make the 40 yarder vs jets and enough leg to beat rams.