Yup. A bunch of opinions that are no more valuable than anyone on BBI. Nothing we haven't heard repeatedly from the naysayers on BBI (and yet those of us who agree with Schoen and Daboll are called fanatical!).
Click-baiters got to pay their bills and there's no shortage of Giants fans with an insatiable appetite for anything negative. It's easy money.
How is one 10-minute discussion of Daniel Jones buried in a 90 minute-NFL discussion click bait?
What did they say that is so outlandish? Be specific.
I don't see that conclusion at all. Schoen very easily could have thought any or all of those QB's were better than Jones, but still weren't good enough to get us to the next level.
It's about opportunity cost; Jones is a sunk cost, investing in another QB is not. Give Jones a better OL and the most explosive player in the draft. If it works, great; if not, they can address the QB spot next year.
You wrote that Schoen could have thought Jones was better than many of these QB prospects. And revamping the OL and bringing in more firepower was a plan they trusted moving forward with Jones. Isn't that what I basically said, too?
BTW, a QB on a rookie contract isn't a cap albatross. So, we could have easily absorbed that investment.
That's not what I wrote, what I wrote is that I wouldn't make any conclusions on how Schoen felt about Jones vs any of the QB's available. He very well could have thought that any one or all 3 were better than Jones, but that none were good enough to take the Giants to the next level.
My comment about opportunity cost really wasn't about the cost of the rookie contract, but more about the value of the #6 pick. They (hopefully) got a very dynamic player at a position of dire need. The value there greatly exceeded the value of a middle of the road QB.
Im at the point we should change the name of the site
went to Mara and said he wanted to cut Jones prior to the 2024 draft he would still have a job? My opinion is that was not an option. Nor should it have been for many reasons.
Paton has the Payton card to play because Payton was not the coach when Paton traded for Russell Wilson. that is a tongue twister.
Schoen, presumptively with the approval/blessing of Daboll extended Jones. They likely don't have the luxury of moving on how Denver did.
I do think the Giants could have drafted a QB, if the right one was attainable, but I don't see a scenario where releasing Jones was on the table, and again, nor should it have been.
every damn day.. another 48 Daniel Jones threads..
Look around the board. There are threads on trading Slayton, Elijah Chatman, the 100 year best plays bracket, the 100 year commemorative patch, and more non-Jones related threads.
Few people are posting on them. You know why? Because no one cares. Giants fans, even the optimists, know that the story this year is the QB position, Schoen, Daboll, and Mara.
That's where the wind is blowing. And wait until the Giants get off to their customary 1-3 start...
RE: RE: Im at the point we should change the name of the site
every damn day.. another 48 Daniel Jones threads..
Look around the board. There are threads on trading Slayton, Elijah Chatman, the 100 year best plays bracket, the 100 year commemorative patch, and more non-Jones related threads.
Few people are posting on them. You know why? Because no one cares. Giants fans, even the optimists, know that the story this year is the QB position, Schoen, Daboll, and Mara.
That's where the wind is blowing. And wait until the Giants get off to their customary 1-3 start...
Bingo.
I hate these discussions, but we're here because everything hinges on the QB now. The rest of the roster looks competitive (not ideal, but competitive). But 90 percent of the fan base understands the QB situation is the main issue.
And whether or not you agree with it, the regime is tying their future to Jones or the possibility that Drew Lock can come to the rescue.
That's not happening. I'd applaud it, but that's not how John Mara runs the Giants. Payton runs the Broncos and he's able to do what he wants. The Giants aren't that cutthroat.
I get it, but then don't write that the Giants wanted to move on from Jones. They may have been willing to test the waters, but they weren't committed to it.
Schoen passed on Wilson, passed on a cheap deal for Fields, signed Lock and made sure he said the company line that he was hired as the back-up, couldn't make a deal to buy the Pats's spot, he passed on the other three big prospects, never drafted another QB prospect on day two or three, and is now bringing in UDFAs from Wabash college.
Seems pretty clear riding with the 10th highest paid player in the NFL for a sixth season was a high priority.
the best analogy is when the Giants shifted from Kent Graham to Kerry Collins.
Same team. But instantly, the entire offense changed when that switch was made. Giants had gone years without a QB passing for 300 yards in a game, and Collins did it right away.
I posted last week, this can go one of four ways for Jones:
- he gets hurt again
- he continues to struggle
- he plays like he did in 2022 as a mid-tier QB
- he surpasses his 2022 level
Those are basically the options here for him. But he's got guys like Nabers, Hyatt, Robinson, and Slayton who can instantly put six points on the board IF he will throw the damn ball to them DOWN THE FIELD.
RE: Im at the point we should change the name of the site
Nobody knows that and 90% on this site don’t share that view. Scary thing is that a few actually believe they no more about this team than the GM and HC. I guess if you post this stuff daily you expect people will believe you.
Nobody knows that and 90% on this site don’t share that view. Scary thing is that a few actually believe they no more about this team than the GM and HC. I guess if you post this stuff daily you expect people will believe you.
(1) The people who post on BBI are the vocal minority who take time to sign up and actually post their thoughts on an internet message board.
(2) Those still arguing on a BBI Daniel Jones thread are the vocal minorities of the minority. Those people posting on threads like this for the 1,000th time tend to have really strong views on Jones, one way or the other.
(3) If you put me in a room with 100 average Giants fans and I ask the question, "Are you concerned about the QB situation?" I'm pretty darn sure 90 percent of those fans will raise their hands (doesn't mean they have completely given up on Jones, but they are concerned).
(4) The goodwill Schoen and Daboll have had with fans is evaporating. You don't have to believe me or anyone else on BBI, just talk to any Giants fan. They may still like them, but they don't feel the same way they did 12 months ago. And some already want them gone.
Click-baiters got to pay their bills and there's no shortage of Giants fans with an insatiable appetite for anything negative. It's easy money.
How is one 10-minute discussion of Daniel Jones buried in a 90 minute-NFL discussion click bait?
What did they say that is so outlandish? Be specific.
In fairness to the panel, I didn't listen to it (I'm at school and was denied access) and simply went by the synopsis that was given, which didn't add anything new to the debate. And given that it was part of a 90-minute discussion, I wouldn't characterize it as clickbait. So my bad.
And I get that the central theme going into the 2024 season is what to expect from Daniel Jones so he is bound to dominate discussion and debate. What makes it so infuriating is that everything that can be said has already been said multiple times, but continues to be repeated. It generally starts with someone bashing Jones and it's followed by someone coming to his defense, with the same tired points being laid out ad infinitum by both sides. I've been guilty of it, too, as much as a try to control myself.
NYG needs to upgrade QB before they will can win a SB or be a yearly contender. That is true.
I'll argue that a) the majority of the league are in similar spot (whether they realize it or not) b) this does not mean that nothing else matters --like the team can't make progress or move the needle without QB change and c) that this hardly means that 2024 is pointless or the team can't compete.
My first statement does not translate to a,b, and c. Yet that's the contention by many here. It's a false narrative but supported by many, which is why no conversation is allowed to take place without turning it into a discussion about the QB.
That's not happening. I'd applaud it, but that's not how John Mara runs the Giants. Payton runs the Broncos and he's able to do what he wants. The Giants aren't that cutthroat.
I get it, but then don't write that the Giants wanted to move on from Jones. They may have been willing to test the waters, but they weren't committed to it.
Schoen passed on Wilson, passed on a cheap deal for Fields, signed Lock and made sure he said the company line that he was hired as the back-up, couldn't make a deal to buy the Pats's spot, he passed on the other three big prospects, never drafted another QB prospect on day two or three, and is now bringing in UDFAs from Wabash college.
Seems pretty clear riding with the 10th highest paid player in the NFL for a sixth season was a high priority.
Solid. Ignore what was reported and focus on what they do. Which means they believe he can play...
In comment 16514222 Giantsfan79 said:
[quote] they all assume the Giants want to get out of Jones contract and therefore think the Giants would be unhappy if he plays well because that would make it harder for them to move on. The Giants goal is to win, they considered drafting a QB because doubts were raised if Jones was the guy, BUT if Jones reproves that he can win why would the Giants still want to move on?
[/quote
They keep making stories up. They have no idea what the Giants feel about DJ. I'm sure the Gmen don't want him to go out there and bomb, that would be a ridiculous strategy on their part. This is the junk these so-called "experts" keep feeding us.
NYG needs to upgrade QB before they will can win a SB or be a yearly contender. That is true.
I'll argue that a) the majority of the league are in similar spot (whether they realize it or not) b) this does not mean that nothing else matters --like the team can't make progress or move the needle without QB change and c) that this hardly means that 2024 is pointless or the team can't compete.
My first statement does not translate to a,b, and c. Yet that's the contention by many here. It's a false narrative but supported by many, which is why no conversation is allowed to take place without turning it into a discussion about the QB.
Agreed. I've said for the past week or so the piling on regarding Jones is getting out of hand. However, I don't think this discussion was "piling on." I think it was an honest assessment of the situation. Heck, even one of the panelists said the Giants have done Jones no favors and have basically screwed him up (no different than what Mara has said).
I'm surprised by some of the reaction to this, but I'm starting to suspect based on Milton's comment that many of the people posting in this thread didn't actually watch the video.
RE: If Jones can't read defenses like is constantly said why wouldn't
Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
The problem is we can't get around a few things that actually did happen:
(1) The Giants did "dumb down" the offense for Jones in 2022 during the period where he started to play better. We all saw it. When they went back to a more conventional offense in 2023, he struggled.
(2) Jones' reluctance to throw the ball down the field is statically proven. So are the results when Taylor and DeVito played with the same group.
(3) Jones hasn't thrown for three touchdowns in one game since 2019. That was five years ago. DeVito plays and he does it immediately.
Not everything is black or white. The Giants can like Jones to be their QB to start 2024 and it means nothing with regards to 2025.
If they like him to start in 2024 why wouldn't they like him to start in 2025?
Jones, even by his own low standards, was terrible in 2023 AND he tore his ACL. If he stays healthy and puts up a typical Jones year (20 total TDs, 6.7 YPA, offense averages around 20 PPG), why wouldn't he be back in 2025?
You predicted all offseason what you thought the Giants would likely do - sign a cheap vet and run it back with Jones & DeVito. You were right. The Giants were locked into Jones contract in 2024.
The big change is the Giants aren't locked into Jones deal in 2025.
RE: RE: If Jones can't read defenses like is constantly said why wouldn't
Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
it is true. Daboll and Kafka designed an offense around this limitation. Please show me where Jones ever consistently read the whole field. He's never done it on a consistent basis his entire career.
I expect the conversation to shift away from Jones and towards management by the end of this calendar year. Here's a realistic scenario:
- Giants are 4-8 around Thanksgiving
- Jones is injured, Lock and DeVito have both played but failed to distinguish themselves
- Dak and Tua have new contracts
- College QB class isn't exceeding expectations
People are going to want to know what the plan is at QB, and why the situation was allowed to atrophy to this point.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
RE: RE: Jones doesn't have to play that well to stick around
So, your statement about Jones not needing to play well to stick around is a complete alternate reality.
But it's not, it's based on 2022 where he didn't play great and yet was awarded a contract as if he had played great.
Sure, the Giants supposedly tried to trade for Maye but that doesn't mean they would absolutely try to replace Jones if he puts up another season similar in production to 2022. They might again propose a trade for one particular prospect that they adore, but will they pursue other avenues if that one get blocked, unlike what they did this offseason? There's no reason right now to believe they would.
RE: RE: RE: If Jones can't read defenses like is constantly said why wouldn't
Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
it is true. Daboll and Kafka designed an offense around this limitation. Please show me where Jones ever consistently read the whole field. He's never done it on a consistent basis his entire career.
You wouldn't know what reading the whole field means if the origin of species depended on it!
I expect the conversation to shift away from Jones and towards management by the end of this calendar year. Here's a realistic scenario:
- Giants are 4-8 around Thanksgiving
- Jones is injured, Lock and DeVito have both played but failed to distinguish themselves
- Dak and Tua have new contracts
- College QB class isn't exceeding expectations
People are going to want to know what the plan is at QB, and why the situation was allowed to atrophy to this point.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
That was the point of my November article about the risk of tripling down on Jones. The article really wasn't about Jones per se but the inherent risk to Schoen and Daboll. For better or worse, they are taking a huge risk here. Mara can tell them privately "they're safe" but I'm sure he he told Joe Judge the same thing.
Where you and I differ it I do believe there is a legitimate reason to take Nabers over Penix. However, by doing so, the options are running out.
I expect the conversation to shift away from Jones and towards management by the end of this calendar year. Here's a realistic scenario:
- Giants are 4-8 around Thanksgiving
- Jones is injured, Lock and DeVito have both played but failed to distinguish themselves
- Dak and Tua have new contracts
- College QB class isn't exceeding expectations
People are going to want to know what the plan is at QB, and why the situation was allowed to atrophy to this point.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
That will pave the way to Belichick if it's that bleak. I think that would be the Mara pivot. As Lombardi says, there comes a time where owners need to buy credibility.
RE: RE: RE: If Jones can't read defenses like is constantly said why wouldn't
Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
The problem is we can't get around a few things that actually did happen:
(1) The Giants did "dumb down" the offense for Jones in 2022 during the period where he started to play better. We all saw it. When they went back to a more conventional offense in 2023, he struggled.
(2) Jones' reluctance to throw the ball down the field is statically proven. So are the results when Taylor and DeVito played with the same group.
(3) Jones hasn't thrown for three touchdowns in one game since 2019. That was five years ago. DeVito plays and he does it immediately.
To me it seems like the root cause really does come down to Sy's remark in his draft profile that Jones doesn't seem to have a quick mind. It may not be staggeringly bad and it can be mitigated -- we're probably talking about seeing things just a fraction of a second too late.
the other thing that a lot of Giants fans don't want to consider true is this: Daniel Jones may be so broken that he's the third best QB on this team now.
I'm not saying that is the case. But I would not discount it at this point. You can break a QB mentally and physically.
Your statement about the SB winning QBs throughout the league is spot on. And this is why I give the Giants credit for passing on a QB after failing to get Maye. You look at the QBs who are going to conference championship games and you either need a great team or a one of a small handful of high level QBs. These people act like reaching for a QB means you are building to win a SB and everyone is doing but NYG. NYG is trying to get a SB worthy QB --not move on from one guy who isn't there to another. No one criticizes Dallas for Dak, as an example, but they're waking up to the fact that he's never going to win them a SB.
Well, we know that sticking with the incumbent and handing him 40 mill a year certainly isn't going to get us anywhere. But, let's run it back so Jones can have another mediocre year, at best, and his ardent supporters (including the owner) can indulge their fantasies again.
Frankly, that list of qb's just proves the abject stupidity of handing Jones that contract and commitment.
I expect the conversation to shift away from Jones and towards management by the end of this calendar year. Here's a realistic scenario:
- Giants are 4-8 around Thanksgiving
- Jones is injured, Lock and DeVito have both played but failed to distinguish themselves
- Dak and Tua have new contracts
- College QB class isn't exceeding expectations
People are going to want to know what the plan is at QB, and why the situation was allowed to atrophy to this point.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
That will pave the way to Belichick if it's that bleak. I think that would be the Mara pivot. As Lombardi says, there comes a time where owners need to buy credibility.
I'd be surprised if they went after Belichick. If they did it would be infuriating...why didn't they just do it after 2023???
It seems very easy to conclude that Schoen made the calculation that Jones was > than Penix, McCarthy and Nix. And it was just a safer bet to give Jones a WR. Otherwise, he would have drafted one of them because he was at least kicking the tires to add a QB by trying to buy the Patriots pick.
I don't see that conclusion at all. Schoen very easily could have thought any or all of those QB's were better than Jones, but still weren't good enough to get us to the next level.
It's about opportunity cost; Jones is a sunk cost, investing in another QB is not. Give Jones a better OL and the most explosive player in the draft. If it works, great; if not, they can address the QB spot next year.
Huh? I think you have it twisted. Daniel Jones is the poster child of opportunity cost. Passing on opportunities to keep Jones installed as starter, simply because he cost a high first, has sapped the Giants of a lot of possible upside. Passing on Penix, JJM, and Nix, to retain Jones, is a disaster of opportunity cost. Those three prospects have much higher ceilings than Jones. That's opportunity cost.
I was referring to the cost of his contract; it is guaranteed for next season, hence no additional opportunity cost. As opposed to spending a high 1st on a QB they may not have been sold on.
Having higher ceilings than Jones is a flawed way to evaluate the opportunity cost. You don't draft them because they are or will be better than Jones; you draft them because you think they can lead you to a SB. Anything else is misspent.
To your first point: Opportunity cost is not how much you pay for something (in money or material). Opportunity cost is about missed opportunity (lost opportunity) because you have pursued a failed or failing strategy. The Giants, as an example, have passed on other opportunities to upgrade the position, because of the extended scholarship given to Daniel Jones.
To your second point, I think you are still unclear about the concept. You say, Having higher ceilings than Jones is a flawed way to evaluate the opportunity cost. Higher ceiling is what it's all about. The aim in the NFL is to win a Super Bowl, or more than one. That's it. Daniel Jones has been in the league 5 years and we now have a hardened idea of what his ceiling is. Look at players as probability vectors. The likelihood that Daniel Jones will ever be a championship QB is an extremely low probability, because we have NFL data that tells us he isn't very good. Plus his floor is pretty bad too as 2023 has shown us. At this moment in time, Penix, JJM and Nix have higher probabilities to become championship QBs. And that's the goal. And their floors are likely not worse than Jones' floor. So passing on QBs with higher Super Bowl probabilities for a QB with a known low Super Bowl probability, is a clear-cut example of an opportunity cost.
the other thing that a lot of Giants fans don't want to consider true is this: Daniel Jones may be so broken that he's the third best QB on this team now.
I'm not saying that is the case. But I would not discount it at this point. You can break a QB mentally and physically.
If everyone wants to sugar coat it that poor Dannel is "broken" by all means if it means we can finally be rid of this albatross. However, if you look at his draft profile, all of these issues were with him when he came out of college after 4 years tutelage by a guy who was a qb coach and many of the same excuses were proffered.
the other thing that a lot of Giants fans don't want to consider true is this: Daniel Jones may be so broken that he's the third best QB on this team now.
I'm not saying that is the case. But I would not discount it at this point. You can break a QB mentally and physically.
He may be broken, I don't know. Even if he is, the truth is that the Giants drafted a day 3/UDFA level talent #6 overall in 2019, and then paid him after four seasons of poor football. They did so because the owner likes him.
"The Maras want to win, but they don't try to win."
I know people disagree with me on this, but Daniel Jones looked like a different QB to me in 2019 than he did by the time Joe Judge left.
Regardless, the same basic issue has existed since the completion of his rookie season: he doesn't throw TD passes.
He cut down on the mistakes, but the TDs he was throwing his rookie season went away too. Many have argued the two are intimately tied together. Probably. But it is what it is.
That's not happening. I'd applaud it, but that's not how John Mara runs the Giants. Payton runs the Broncos and he's able to do what he wants. The Giants aren't that cutthroat.
I get it, but then don't write that the Giants wanted to move on from Jones. They may have been willing to test the waters, but they weren't committed to it.
Schoen passed on Wilson, passed on a cheap deal for Fields, signed Lock and made sure he said the company line that he was hired as the back-up, couldn't make a deal to buy the Pats's spot, he passed on the other three big prospects, never drafted another QB prospect on day two or three, and is now bringing in UDFAs from Wabash college.
Seems pretty clear riding with the 10th highest paid player in the NFL for a sixth season was a high priority.
100%, IMO, all this talk, JS stinks and screwed up by not getting a QB in the draft, is wrong. We on this board have to come to the realization that the Giant brain thrust likes, I repeat, likes DJ. They, the pros, are aware DJ could not operate under awful conditions they put him in, now are trying to correct it. With a better surrounding cast, they expect much improved play. To me every move they made points in the direction. Now, if play doesn't improve maybe they're in hot water. Right now, this is the plan, maybe they know more about DJ than we do.
the other thing that a lot of Giants fans don't want to consider true is this: Daniel Jones may be so broken that he's the third best QB on this team now.
I'm not saying that is the case. But I would not discount it at this point. You can break a QB mentally and physically.
Pat Kirwan mentioned during his radio show last week that he was told by Rams staff that they were blitzing Goff at every practice and were trying to destroy his confidence. It was just an aside, didn’t discuss a motive, but it made me wonder if Wink engaged in similar shenanigans given his pride in the defense kicking the offense’s @ss during practice.
Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
it is true. Daboll and Kafka designed an offense around this limitation. Please show me where Jones ever consistently read the whole field. He's never done it on a consistent basis his entire career.
Maybe they designed that offense around the horrendous OL, and mediocre WRs.
That's not happening. I'd applaud it, but that's not how John Mara runs the Giants. Payton runs the Broncos and he's able to do what he wants. The Giants aren't that cutthroat.
I get it, but then don't write that the Giants wanted to move on from Jones. They may have been willing to test the waters, but they weren't committed to it.
Schoen passed on Wilson, passed on a cheap deal for Fields, signed Lock and made sure he said the company line that he was hired as the back-up, couldn't make a deal to buy the Pats's spot, he passed on the other three big prospects, never drafted another QB prospect on day two or three, and is now bringing in UDFAs from Wabash college.
Seems pretty clear riding with the 10th highest paid player in the NFL for a sixth season was a high priority.
100%, IMO, all this talk, JS stinks and screwed up by not getting a QB in the draft, is wrong. We on this board have to come to the realization that the Giant brain thrust likes, I repeat, likes DJ. They, the pros, are aware DJ could not operate under awful conditions they put him in, now are trying to correct it. With a better surrounding cast, they expect much improved play. To me every move they made points in the direction. Now, if play doesn't improve maybe they're in hot water. Right now, this is the plan, maybe they know more about DJ than we do.
It is not clear that JS and BD like Daniel Jones. There are plenty of possible alternate explanations for deciding to pass on Penix, JJM, and Nix. Here's one. They may have been warned by Mara that they will get one shot at a highly-drafted QB and unless they have love for the prospect, they shouldn't bother. And that's how you pass on a QB who you might think is better than Daniel Jones, but not good enough. Great being the enemy of good.
It seems very easy to conclude that Schoen made the calculation that Jones was > than Penix, McCarthy and Nix. And it was just a safer bet to give Jones a WR. Otherwise, he would have drafted one of them because he was at least kicking the tires to add a QB by trying to buy the Patriots pick.
I don't see that conclusion at all. Schoen very easily could have thought any or all of those QB's were better than Jones, but still weren't good enough to get us to the next level.
It's about opportunity cost; Jones is a sunk cost, investing in another QB is not. Give Jones a better OL and the most explosive player in the draft. If it works, great; if not, they can address the QB spot next year.
Huh? I think you have it twisted. Daniel Jones is the poster child of opportunity cost. Passing on opportunities to keep Jones installed as starter, simply because he cost a high first, has sapped the Giants of a lot of possible upside. Passing on Penix, JJM, and Nix, to retain Jones, is a disaster of opportunity cost. Those three prospects have much higher ceilings than Jones. That's opportunity cost.
I was referring to the cost of his contract; it is guaranteed for next season, hence no additional opportunity cost. As opposed to spending a high 1st on a QB they may not have been sold on.
Having higher ceilings than Jones is a flawed way to evaluate the opportunity cost. You don't draft them because they are or will be better than Jones; you draft them because you think they can lead you to a SB. Anything else is misspent.
To your first point: Opportunity cost is not how much you pay for something (in money or material). Opportunity cost is about missed opportunity (lost opportunity) because you have pursued a failed or failing strategy. The Giants, as an example, have passed on other opportunities to upgrade the position, because of the extended scholarship given to Daniel Jones.
To your second point, I think you are still unclear about the concept. You say, Having higher ceilings than Jones is a flawed way to evaluate the opportunity cost. Higher ceiling is what it's all about. The aim in the NFL is to win a Super Bowl, or more than one. That's it. Daniel Jones has been in the league 5 years and we now have a hardened idea of what his ceiling is. Look at players as probability vectors. The likelihood that Daniel Jones will ever be a championship QB is an extremely low probability, because we have NFL data that tells us he isn't very good. Plus his floor is pretty bad too as 2023 has shown us. At this moment in time, Penix, JJM and Nix have higher probabilities to become championship QBs. And that's the goal. And their floors are likely not worse than Jones' floor. So passing on QBs with higher Super Bowl probabilities for a QB with a known low Super Bowl probability, is a clear-cut example of an opportunity cost.
I see your point, but look at it from Schoen’s POV - if he passes on Nabers and takes a QB he thinks is a slight upgrade over Jones, he’s just cost himself 3 years to see if that QB can be any good. In that case, the greater likelihood is that the next GM is picking the next QB.
Schoen is kicking the can down the road a bit. Unless the right QB drops in his lap, build the rest of the team, THEN take more risks at the QB position.
McCarthy, Penix, and Nix weren't even considered 1st round talents a couple of months before the draft. QB desperate teams may have forced those picks.
In reality, the entire NFL can't scout QBs worth shit. The odds are one or two of Williams, Daniels, and Maye will bust. And the odds are one of of Penix, McCarthy, and Nix will end up being pretty good.
But taking Nabers (more of a sure thing as a true "blue chip" talent) is defensible.
Let me caution you on this. This Jones saga is never short on excuses. Hell, even before the draft, Schoen basically granted Jones immunity by saying that the OL was really to blame for the 2023 struggle the team had on offense. Which could easily be construed as Schoen's version of "we've done everything to screw this kid up..."
We enter 2024 with the following: Jones coming off an injury, revamped OL, no Barkley, no Waller (likely), a high drafted, rookie WR, an unproven WR group overall, new lead RB, etc.
So, if Jones struggles early and often, there are going to be a lot of places to divert blame away from Jones.
RE: RE: RE: Im at the point we should change the name of the site
And whether or not you agree with it, the regime is tying their future to Jones or the possibility that Drew Lock can come to the rescue.
In other words, it's a big deal.
This. There should be no more question about letting Schoen and Daboll "pick their QB." They already did. If signing Jones to that contract is seen as a mistake, it is an unforced error on Schoen and Daboll (unless you believe it was mandated by Mara which I don't).
Schoen is kicking the can down the road a bit. Unless the right QB drops in his lap, build the rest of the team, THEN take more risks at the QB position.
So when the rest of the roster is ready to win, are you suggesting a) the team go through their championship window with a rookie? or b) when all the other pieces are in place, you select the QB in that draft (forcing the pick)?
"Build the rest of the team and then get the QB" is another way of saying "When you need the QB, take the best one available when you are on the clock in the year you need him."
Quote:
Empty chatter is what this is.
Yup. A bunch of opinions that are no more valuable than anyone on BBI. Nothing we haven't heard repeatedly from the naysayers on BBI (and yet those of us who agree with Schoen and Daboll are called fanatical!).
Click-baiters got to pay their bills and there's no shortage of Giants fans with an insatiable appetite for anything negative. It's easy money.
How is one 10-minute discussion of Daniel Jones buried in a 90 minute-NFL discussion click bait?
What did they say that is so outlandish? Be specific.
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I don't see that conclusion at all. Schoen very easily could have thought any or all of those QB's were better than Jones, but still weren't good enough to get us to the next level.
It's about opportunity cost; Jones is a sunk cost, investing in another QB is not. Give Jones a better OL and the most explosive player in the draft. If it works, great; if not, they can address the QB spot next year.
You wrote that Schoen could have thought Jones was better than many of these QB prospects. And revamping the OL and bringing in more firepower was a plan they trusted moving forward with Jones. Isn't that what I basically said, too?
BTW, a QB on a rookie contract isn't a cap albatross. So, we could have easily absorbed that investment.
That's not what I wrote, what I wrote is that I wouldn't make any conclusions on how Schoen felt about Jones vs any of the QB's available. He very well could have thought that any one or all 3 were better than Jones, but that none were good enough to take the Giants to the next level.
My comment about opportunity cost really wasn't about the cost of the rookie contract, but more about the value of the #6 pick. They (hopefully) got a very dynamic player at a position of dire need. The value there greatly exceeded the value of a middle of the road QB.
every damn day.. another 48 Daniel Jones threads..
Paton has the Payton card to play because Payton was not the coach when Paton traded for Russell Wilson. that is a tongue twister.
Schoen, presumptively with the approval/blessing of Daboll extended Jones. They likely don't have the luxury of moving on how Denver did.
I do think the Giants could have drafted a QB, if the right one was attainable, but I don't see a scenario where releasing Jones was on the table, and again, nor should it have been.
Peter Schrager I will listen to.
every damn day.. another 48 Daniel Jones threads..
The instant they passed on the QB, this became inevitable for another 12 months.
Peter Schrager I will listen to.
What did she get wrong here?
every damn day.. another 48 Daniel Jones threads..
Look around the board. There are threads on trading Slayton, Elijah Chatman, the 100 year best plays bracket, the 100 year commemorative patch, and more non-Jones related threads.
Few people are posting on them. You know why? Because no one cares. Giants fans, even the optimists, know that the story this year is the QB position, Schoen, Daboll, and Mara.
That's where the wind is blowing. And wait until the Giants get off to their customary 1-3 start...
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to Daniel Jones Interactive.com
every damn day.. another 48 Daniel Jones threads..
Look around the board. There are threads on trading Slayton, Elijah Chatman, the 100 year best plays bracket, the 100 year commemorative patch, and more non-Jones related threads.
Few people are posting on them. You know why? Because no one cares. Giants fans, even the optimists, know that the story this year is the QB position, Schoen, Daboll, and Mara.
That's where the wind is blowing. And wait until the Giants get off to their customary 1-3 start...
Bingo.
I hate these discussions, but we're here because everything hinges on the QB now. The rest of the roster looks competitive (not ideal, but competitive). But 90 percent of the fan base understands the QB situation is the main issue.
And whether or not you agree with it, the regime is tying their future to Jones or the possibility that Drew Lock can come to the rescue.
In other words, it's a big deal.
I get it, but then don't write that the Giants wanted to move on from Jones. They may have been willing to test the waters, but they weren't committed to it.
Schoen passed on Wilson, passed on a cheap deal for Fields, signed Lock and made sure he said the company line that he was hired as the back-up, couldn't make a deal to buy the Pats's spot, he passed on the other three big prospects, never drafted another QB prospect on day two or three, and is now bringing in UDFAs from Wabash college.
Seems pretty clear riding with the 10th highest paid player in the NFL for a sixth season was a high priority.
Same team. But instantly, the entire offense changed when that switch was made. Giants had gone years without a QB passing for 300 yards in a game, and Collins did it right away.
I posted last week, this can go one of four ways for Jones:
- he gets hurt again
- he continues to struggle
- he plays like he did in 2022 as a mid-tier QB
- he surpasses his 2022 level
Those are basically the options here for him. But he's got guys like Nabers, Hyatt, Robinson, and Slayton who can instantly put six points on the board IF he will throw the damn ball to them DOWN THE FIELD.
every damn day.. another 48 Daniel Jones threads..
Jones is the 10th highest paid player in the NFL and eats up 19% of our 2024 cap as the QB.
He can't stay healthy. And when he has been healthy, the results have mostly been below average.
And now we are in chapter six of the Jones Experience.
What the hell is more interesting than that?
A guy named Pat Mahomes. No all pro OL. No all pro WR or RB. They win because he is good at all the things Jones is bad at.
(1) The people who post on BBI are the vocal minority who take time to sign up and actually post their thoughts on an internet message board.
(2) Those still arguing on a BBI Daniel Jones thread are the vocal minorities of the minority. Those people posting on threads like this for the 1,000th time tend to have really strong views on Jones, one way or the other.
(3) If you put me in a room with 100 average Giants fans and I ask the question, "Are you concerned about the QB situation?" I'm pretty darn sure 90 percent of those fans will raise their hands (doesn't mean they have completely given up on Jones, but they are concerned).
(4) The goodwill Schoen and Daboll have had with fans is evaporating. You don't have to believe me or anyone else on BBI, just talk to any Giants fan. They may still like them, but they don't feel the same way they did 12 months ago. And some already want them gone.
Click-baiters got to pay their bills and there's no shortage of Giants fans with an insatiable appetite for anything negative. It's easy money.
How is one 10-minute discussion of Daniel Jones buried in a 90 minute-NFL discussion click bait?
What did they say that is so outlandish? Be specific.
And I get that the central theme going into the 2024 season is what to expect from Daniel Jones so he is bound to dominate discussion and debate. What makes it so infuriating is that everything that can be said has already been said multiple times, but continues to be repeated. It generally starts with someone bashing Jones and it's followed by someone coming to his defense, with the same tired points being laid out ad infinitum by both sides. I've been guilty of it, too, as much as a try to control myself.
I'll argue that a) the majority of the league are in similar spot (whether they realize it or not) b) this does not mean that nothing else matters --like the team can't make progress or move the needle without QB change and c) that this hardly means that 2024 is pointless or the team can't compete.
My first statement does not translate to a,b, and c. Yet that's the contention by many here. It's a false narrative but supported by many, which is why no conversation is allowed to take place without turning it into a discussion about the QB.
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That's not happening. I'd applaud it, but that's not how John Mara runs the Giants. Payton runs the Broncos and he's able to do what he wants. The Giants aren't that cutthroat.
I get it, but then don't write that the Giants wanted to move on from Jones. They may have been willing to test the waters, but they weren't committed to it.
Schoen passed on Wilson, passed on a cheap deal for Fields, signed Lock and made sure he said the company line that he was hired as the back-up, couldn't make a deal to buy the Pats's spot, he passed on the other three big prospects, never drafted another QB prospect on day two or three, and is now bringing in UDFAs from Wabash college.
Seems pretty clear riding with the 10th highest paid player in the NFL for a sixth season was a high priority.
[quote] they all assume the Giants want to get out of Jones contract and therefore think the Giants would be unhappy if he plays well because that would make it harder for them to move on. The Giants goal is to win, they considered drafting a QB because doubts were raised if Jones was the guy, BUT if Jones reproves that he can win why would the Giants still want to move on?
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They keep making stories up. They have no idea what the Giants feel about DJ. I'm sure the Gmen don't want him to go out there and bomb, that would be a ridiculous strategy on their part. This is the junk these so-called "experts" keep feeding us.
I'll argue that a) the majority of the league are in similar spot (whether they realize it or not) b) this does not mean that nothing else matters --like the team can't make progress or move the needle without QB change and c) that this hardly means that 2024 is pointless or the team can't compete.
My first statement does not translate to a,b, and c. Yet that's the contention by many here. It's a false narrative but supported by many, which is why no conversation is allowed to take place without turning it into a discussion about the QB.
Agreed. I've said for the past week or so the piling on regarding Jones is getting out of hand. However, I don't think this discussion was "piling on." I think it was an honest assessment of the situation. Heck, even one of the panelists said the Giants have done Jones no favors and have basically screwed him up (no different than what Mara has said).
I'm surprised by some of the reaction to this, but I'm starting to suspect based on Milton's comment that many of the people posting in this thread didn't actually watch the video.
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
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Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
The problem is we can't get around a few things that actually did happen:
(1) The Giants did "dumb down" the offense for Jones in 2022 during the period where he started to play better. We all saw it. When they went back to a more conventional offense in 2023, he struggled.
(2) Jones' reluctance to throw the ball down the field is statically proven. So are the results when Taylor and DeVito played with the same group.
(3) Jones hasn't thrown for three touchdowns in one game since 2019. That was five years ago. DeVito plays and he does it immediately.
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Not everything is black or white. The Giants can like Jones to be their QB to start 2024 and it means nothing with regards to 2025.
If they like him to start in 2024 why wouldn't they like him to start in 2025?
Jones, even by his own low standards, was terrible in 2023 AND he tore his ACL. If he stays healthy and puts up a typical Jones year (20 total TDs, 6.7 YPA, offense averages around 20 PPG), why wouldn't he be back in 2025?
You predicted all offseason what you thought the Giants would likely do - sign a cheap vet and run it back with Jones & DeVito. You were right. The Giants were locked into Jones contract in 2024.
The big change is the Giants aren't locked into Jones deal in 2025.
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Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
it is true. Daboll and Kafka designed an offense around this limitation. Please show me where Jones ever consistently read the whole field. He's never done it on a consistent basis his entire career.
- Giants are 4-8 around Thanksgiving
- Jones is injured, Lock and DeVito have both played but failed to distinguish themselves
- Dak and Tua have new contracts
- College QB class isn't exceeding expectations
People are going to want to know what the plan is at QB, and why the situation was allowed to atrophy to this point.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
So, your statement about Jones not needing to play well to stick around is a complete alternate reality.
But it's not, it's based on 2022 where he didn't play great and yet was awarded a contract as if he had played great.
Sure, the Giants supposedly tried to trade for Maye but that doesn't mean they would absolutely try to replace Jones if he puts up another season similar in production to 2022. They might again propose a trade for one particular prospect that they adore, but will they pursue other avenues if that one get blocked, unlike what they did this offseason? There's no reason right now to believe they would.
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In comment 16514496 Blue21 said:
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Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
it is true. Daboll and Kafka designed an offense around this limitation. Please show me where Jones ever consistently read the whole field. He's never done it on a consistent basis his entire career.
You wouldn't know what reading the whole field means if the origin of species depended on it!
- Giants are 4-8 around Thanksgiving
- Jones is injured, Lock and DeVito have both played but failed to distinguish themselves
- Dak and Tua have new contracts
- College QB class isn't exceeding expectations
People are going to want to know what the plan is at QB, and why the situation was allowed to atrophy to this point.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
That was the point of my November article about the risk of tripling down on Jones. The article really wasn't about Jones per se but the inherent risk to Schoen and Daboll. For better or worse, they are taking a huge risk here. Mara can tell them privately "they're safe" but I'm sure he he told Joe Judge the same thing.
Where you and I differ it I do believe there is a legitimate reason to take Nabers over Penix. However, by doing so, the options are running out.
- Giants are 4-8 around Thanksgiving
- Jones is injured, Lock and DeVito have both played but failed to distinguish themselves
- Dak and Tua have new contracts
- College QB class isn't exceeding expectations
People are going to want to know what the plan is at QB, and why the situation was allowed to atrophy to this point.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
That will pave the way to Belichick if it's that bleak. I think that would be the Mara pivot. As Lombardi says, there comes a time where owners need to buy credibility.
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In comment 16514496 Blue21 said:
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Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
The problem is we can't get around a few things that actually did happen:
(1) The Giants did "dumb down" the offense for Jones in 2022 during the period where he started to play better. We all saw it. When they went back to a more conventional offense in 2023, he struggled.
(2) Jones' reluctance to throw the ball down the field is statically proven. So are the results when Taylor and DeVito played with the same group.
(3) Jones hasn't thrown for three touchdowns in one game since 2019. That was five years ago. DeVito plays and he does it immediately.
To me it seems like the root cause really does come down to Sy's remark in his draft profile that Jones doesn't seem to have a quick mind. It may not be staggeringly bad and it can be mitigated -- we're probably talking about seeing things just a fraction of a second too late.
I'm not saying that is the case. But I would not discount it at this point. You can break a QB mentally and physically.
Frankly, that list of qb's just proves the abject stupidity of handing Jones that contract and commitment.
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I expect the conversation to shift away from Jones and towards management by the end of this calendar year. Here's a realistic scenario:
- Giants are 4-8 around Thanksgiving
- Jones is injured, Lock and DeVito have both played but failed to distinguish themselves
- Dak and Tua have new contracts
- College QB class isn't exceeding expectations
People are going to want to know what the plan is at QB, and why the situation was allowed to atrophy to this point.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
That will pave the way to Belichick if it's that bleak. I think that would be the Mara pivot. As Lombardi says, there comes a time where owners need to buy credibility.
I'd be surprised if they went after Belichick. If they did it would be infuriating...why didn't they just do it after 2023???
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In comment 16514442 Section331 said:
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In comment 16514410 bw in dc said:
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It seems very easy to conclude that Schoen made the calculation that Jones was > than Penix, McCarthy and Nix. And it was just a safer bet to give Jones a WR. Otherwise, he would have drafted one of them because he was at least kicking the tires to add a QB by trying to buy the Patriots pick.
I don't see that conclusion at all. Schoen very easily could have thought any or all of those QB's were better than Jones, but still weren't good enough to get us to the next level.
It's about opportunity cost; Jones is a sunk cost, investing in another QB is not. Give Jones a better OL and the most explosive player in the draft. If it works, great; if not, they can address the QB spot next year.
Huh? I think you have it twisted. Daniel Jones is the poster child of opportunity cost. Passing on opportunities to keep Jones installed as starter, simply because he cost a high first, has sapped the Giants of a lot of possible upside. Passing on Penix, JJM, and Nix, to retain Jones, is a disaster of opportunity cost. Those three prospects have much higher ceilings than Jones. That's opportunity cost.
I was referring to the cost of his contract; it is guaranteed for next season, hence no additional opportunity cost. As opposed to spending a high 1st on a QB they may not have been sold on.
Having higher ceilings than Jones is a flawed way to evaluate the opportunity cost. You don't draft them because they are or will be better than Jones; you draft them because you think they can lead you to a SB. Anything else is misspent.
To your first point: Opportunity cost is not how much you pay for something (in money or material). Opportunity cost is about missed opportunity (lost opportunity) because you have pursued a failed or failing strategy. The Giants, as an example, have passed on other opportunities to upgrade the position, because of the extended scholarship given to Daniel Jones.
To your second point, I think you are still unclear about the concept. You say, Having higher ceilings than Jones is a flawed way to evaluate the opportunity cost. Higher ceiling is what it's all about. The aim in the NFL is to win a Super Bowl, or more than one. That's it. Daniel Jones has been in the league 5 years and we now have a hardened idea of what his ceiling is. Look at players as probability vectors. The likelihood that Daniel Jones will ever be a championship QB is an extremely low probability, because we have NFL data that tells us he isn't very good. Plus his floor is pretty bad too as 2023 has shown us. At this moment in time, Penix, JJM and Nix have higher probabilities to become championship QBs. And that's the goal. And their floors are likely not worse than Jones' floor. So passing on QBs with higher Super Bowl probabilities for a QB with a known low Super Bowl probability, is a clear-cut example of an opportunity cost.
When has current ownership demonstrated any strategic thinking? Everything seems to be reactive.
I'm not saying that is the case. But I would not discount it at this point. You can break a QB mentally and physically.
I'm not saying that is the case. But I would not discount it at this point. You can break a QB mentally and physically.
He may be broken, I don't know. Even if he is, the truth is that the Giants drafted a day 3/UDFA level talent #6 overall in 2019, and then paid him after four seasons of poor football. They did so because the owner likes him.
"The Maras want to win, but they don't try to win."
Regardless, the same basic issue has existed since the completion of his rookie season: he doesn't throw TD passes.
He cut down on the mistakes, but the TDs he was throwing his rookie season went away too. Many have argued the two are intimately tied together. Probably. But it is what it is.
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That's not happening. I'd applaud it, but that's not how John Mara runs the Giants. Payton runs the Broncos and he's able to do what he wants. The Giants aren't that cutthroat.
I get it, but then don't write that the Giants wanted to move on from Jones. They may have been willing to test the waters, but they weren't committed to it.
Schoen passed on Wilson, passed on a cheap deal for Fields, signed Lock and made sure he said the company line that he was hired as the back-up, couldn't make a deal to buy the Pats's spot, he passed on the other three big prospects, never drafted another QB prospect on day two or three, and is now bringing in UDFAs from Wabash college.
Seems pretty clear riding with the 10th highest paid player in the NFL for a sixth season was a high priority.
100%, IMO, all this talk, JS stinks and screwed up by not getting a QB in the draft, is wrong. We on this board have to come to the realization that the Giant brain thrust likes, I repeat, likes DJ. They, the pros, are aware DJ could not operate under awful conditions they put him in, now are trying to correct it. With a better surrounding cast, they expect much improved play. To me every move they made points in the direction. Now, if play doesn't improve maybe they're in hot water. Right now, this is the plan, maybe they know more about DJ than we do.
I'm not saying that is the case. But I would not discount it at this point. You can break a QB mentally and physically.
Pat Kirwan mentioned during his radio show last week that he was told by Rams staff that they were blitzing Goff at every practice and were trying to destroy his confidence. It was just an aside, didn’t discuss a motive, but it made me wonder if Wink engaged in similar shenanigans given his pride in the defense kicking the offense’s @ss during practice.
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In comment 16514496 Blue21 said:
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Daboll, Kafka and for that matter Shoen not know this?
Because, like many statements on this board, it's not true.
it is true. Daboll and Kafka designed an offense around this limitation. Please show me where Jones ever consistently read the whole field. He's never done it on a consistent basis his entire career.
Maybe they designed that offense around the horrendous OL, and mediocre WRs.
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In comment 16514516 Sean said:
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That's not happening. I'd applaud it, but that's not how John Mara runs the Giants. Payton runs the Broncos and he's able to do what he wants. The Giants aren't that cutthroat.
I get it, but then don't write that the Giants wanted to move on from Jones. They may have been willing to test the waters, but they weren't committed to it.
Schoen passed on Wilson, passed on a cheap deal for Fields, signed Lock and made sure he said the company line that he was hired as the back-up, couldn't make a deal to buy the Pats's spot, he passed on the other three big prospects, never drafted another QB prospect on day two or three, and is now bringing in UDFAs from Wabash college.
Seems pretty clear riding with the 10th highest paid player in the NFL for a sixth season was a high priority.
100%, IMO, all this talk, JS stinks and screwed up by not getting a QB in the draft, is wrong. We on this board have to come to the realization that the Giant brain thrust likes, I repeat, likes DJ. They, the pros, are aware DJ could not operate under awful conditions they put him in, now are trying to correct it. With a better surrounding cast, they expect much improved play. To me every move they made points in the direction. Now, if play doesn't improve maybe they're in hot water. Right now, this is the plan, maybe they know more about DJ than we do.
It is not clear that JS and BD like Daniel Jones. There are plenty of possible alternate explanations for deciding to pass on Penix, JJM, and Nix. Here's one. They may have been warned by Mara that they will get one shot at a highly-drafted QB and unless they have love for the prospect, they shouldn't bother. And that's how you pass on a QB who you might think is better than Daniel Jones, but not good enough. Great being the enemy of good.
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In comment 16514445 Darwinian said:
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In comment 16514442 Section331 said:
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In comment 16514410 bw in dc said:
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It seems very easy to conclude that Schoen made the calculation that Jones was > than Penix, McCarthy and Nix. And it was just a safer bet to give Jones a WR. Otherwise, he would have drafted one of them because he was at least kicking the tires to add a QB by trying to buy the Patriots pick.
I don't see that conclusion at all. Schoen very easily could have thought any or all of those QB's were better than Jones, but still weren't good enough to get us to the next level.
It's about opportunity cost; Jones is a sunk cost, investing in another QB is not. Give Jones a better OL and the most explosive player in the draft. If it works, great; if not, they can address the QB spot next year.
Huh? I think you have it twisted. Daniel Jones is the poster child of opportunity cost. Passing on opportunities to keep Jones installed as starter, simply because he cost a high first, has sapped the Giants of a lot of possible upside. Passing on Penix, JJM, and Nix, to retain Jones, is a disaster of opportunity cost. Those three prospects have much higher ceilings than Jones. That's opportunity cost.
I was referring to the cost of his contract; it is guaranteed for next season, hence no additional opportunity cost. As opposed to spending a high 1st on a QB they may not have been sold on.
Having higher ceilings than Jones is a flawed way to evaluate the opportunity cost. You don't draft them because they are or will be better than Jones; you draft them because you think they can lead you to a SB. Anything else is misspent.
To your first point: Opportunity cost is not how much you pay for something (in money or material). Opportunity cost is about missed opportunity (lost opportunity) because you have pursued a failed or failing strategy. The Giants, as an example, have passed on other opportunities to upgrade the position, because of the extended scholarship given to Daniel Jones.
To your second point, I think you are still unclear about the concept. You say, Having higher ceilings than Jones is a flawed way to evaluate the opportunity cost. Higher ceiling is what it's all about. The aim in the NFL is to win a Super Bowl, or more than one. That's it. Daniel Jones has been in the league 5 years and we now have a hardened idea of what his ceiling is. Look at players as probability vectors. The likelihood that Daniel Jones will ever be a championship QB is an extremely low probability, because we have NFL data that tells us he isn't very good. Plus his floor is pretty bad too as 2023 has shown us. At this moment in time, Penix, JJM and Nix have higher probabilities to become championship QBs. And that's the goal. And their floors are likely not worse than Jones' floor. So passing on QBs with higher Super Bowl probabilities for a QB with a known low Super Bowl probability, is a clear-cut example of an opportunity cost.
I see your point, but look at it from Schoen’s POV - if he passes on Nabers and takes a QB he thinks is a slight upgrade over Jones, he’s just cost himself 3 years to see if that QB can be any good. In that case, the greater likelihood is that the next GM is picking the next QB.
Schoen is kicking the can down the road a bit. Unless the right QB drops in his lap, build the rest of the team, THEN take more risks at the QB position.
McCarthy, Penix, and Nix weren't even considered 1st round talents a couple of months before the draft. QB desperate teams may have forced those picks.
In reality, the entire NFL can't scout QBs worth shit. The odds are one or two of Williams, Daniels, and Maye will bust. And the odds are one of of Penix, McCarthy, and Nix will end up being pretty good.
But taking Nabers (more of a sure thing as a true "blue chip" talent) is defensible.
This isn't about Jones anymore.
Let me caution you on this. This Jones saga is never short on excuses. Hell, even before the draft, Schoen basically granted Jones immunity by saying that the OL was really to blame for the 2023 struggle the team had on offense. Which could easily be construed as Schoen's version of "we've done everything to screw this kid up..."
We enter 2024 with the following: Jones coming off an injury, revamped OL, no Barkley, no Waller (likely), a high drafted, rookie WR, an unproven WR group overall, new lead RB, etc.
So, if Jones struggles early and often, there are going to be a lot of places to divert blame away from Jones.
And whether or not you agree with it, the regime is tying their future to Jones or the possibility that Drew Lock can come to the rescue.
In other words, it's a big deal.
This. There should be no more question about letting Schoen and Daboll "pick their QB." They already did. If signing Jones to that contract is seen as a mistake, it is an unforced error on Schoen and Daboll (unless you believe it was mandated by Mara which I don't).
Schoen is kicking the can down the road a bit. Unless the right QB drops in his lap, build the rest of the team, THEN take more risks at the QB position.
So when the rest of the roster is ready to win, are you suggesting a) the team go through their championship window with a rookie? or b) when all the other pieces are in place, you select the QB in that draft (forcing the pick)?
"Build the rest of the team and then get the QB" is another way of saying "When you need the QB, take the best one available when you are on the clock in the year you need him."