NFT: Aaron Judge's 460'+ HR last night...and the Mick

Is based purely on the determination of a reporter who found the ball in a yard outside the stadium. Could have bounced off concrete, rolled, we don’t know. And no scientific method was used to determine even the final resting place of the ball. If it actually was where reported.

Disclaimer, I have no idea. However, I know they used different types of bats back then and I am sure the balls were different too as MLB is constantly fuckin with them. With that said, I wonder if they changed how they record the distance. Today it is where it lands. Back then, was it more of a projection? If I remmeber correctly, it hit off a certain part of the back of the stadium so it was definitely far but did they project where it would have landed and added to it?

they pitch harder and swing harder now, that combo leads to harder hit balls. The math doesn’t add up.

In comment 16516551 Jim in Fairfax said:

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Is based purely on the determination of a reporter who found the ball in a yard outside the stadium. Could have bounced off concrete, rolled, we don’t know. And no scientific method was used to determine even the final resting place of the ball. If it actually was where reported.

This makes sense.

It wasn't exactly precisely measured, but even a modern investigation showed it was over 500 feet. Also, it was aided by a strong wind. Read more in the link.
Link - ( New Window )

years back. The ball in the 50s may have been even more lively than early 2000s.

I have often wondered the same thing. Why did Mantle's ball go farther? It is not speculation, either. Some of those shots were actually physically measured.

I saw Stanton hit one 505 feet once, and that was spectacular and seemed to be under calculated. Judge's shot last night and the one several years ago in Seattle that almost left the facility looked like 600 footers.

One thing about Mickey was that he was a physical freak. Remember he was not only ungodly strong but extremely fast - one of the fastest players to ever play(even up to today). So he had ridiculous fast twitch muscle. Perhaps his bat speed was crazy, too. They say Stanton is by far the fastest bat in BB - 80+ mph and nobody else over 79. Judge's HR last night was just under 77 mph with ball at 113 mph.

It is a good question.

In comment 16516562 Greg from LI said:

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It wasn't exactly precisely measured, but even a modern investigation showed it was over 500 feet. Also, it was aided by a strong wind. Read more in the link. Link - ( New Window )

Interesting read...thanks for posting!

nobody hit a ball 565 feet. 500 maybe. anyway I'm surprised Judge didn't hurt somebody with some of those balls he hit last night.

says....

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In conclusion, I have presented a new analysis of the trajectory of the famous Mantle home run. The principal new piece of information used in the analysis is that the ball was retrieved behind the row houses facing 5th St. For the ball to get to the back yard of those houses, it had to travel far enough to at least hit the roof, which allows a precise determination of a minimum distance that the ball would have traveled unimpeded. As it happens, that minimum distance is very close to the distance one would expect for a ball hit optimally. Thus, a physically plausible scenario has been found for the trajectory that is consistent with all the available information and the laws of physics. The minimum distance is found to be 538 ft.

It was estimated at 539 feet despite hitting the light tower at Tiger Stadium.

at Yankee Stadium in 1963 was mathematically calculated to have gone 620 feet(or would have) had it not hit the facade. They have the distance it traveled, how long it took to get there and how high it was at impact.
It was 370 feet from home and 118 feet high at that point.

IDK, but the math is the same now as then....

I agree with most that those distance seem absurd knowing what we know about athletes today.

my guess is the speed (exit velocity) is the big differentiator. How many 120mph HRs were hit back then? Hard to see it was very many, but I also don’t know how corked bats, balls with other materials, etc could effect that.

was definitely slightly exaggerated but we do have 3 "official" 500+ ft homers in the statcast era.

Also if you watch old school Mantle highlights, it takes 1 minute to understand he was a true freak of nature level athlete. Insane speed/power combo and hitting absolute monster shots from both sides of the plate. He was a Bo Jackson type of once in a 25 year caliber freak by all accounts.

Kind of like how Stanton/Judge are outliers in terms of power, Mantle very likely was too. Does that mean he hit a 550+ foot bomb? Probably not. But 500+ and maybe ~520 seems possible for a freak like him.

In comment 16516610 section125 said:

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at Yankee Stadium in 1963 was mathematically calculated to have gone 620 feet(or would have) had it not hit the facade. They have the distance it traveled, how long it took to get there and how high it was at impact. It was 370 feet from home and 118 feet high at that point. IDK, but the math is the same now as then.... I agree with most that those distance seem absurd knowing what we know about athletes today.

Math is the same. But GIGO

In comment 16516633 UConn4523 said:

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my guess is the speed (exit velocity) is the big differentiator. How many 120mph HRs were hit back then? Hard to see it was very many, but I also don’t know how corked bats, balls with other materials, etc could effect that.

I have recently become skeptical of these early supposed bombs just seeing what Stanton and Judge do. I do think the ball was more lively, in fact we know this. Last night Jeff Nelson called BS on the 467 feet. He thought it was much farther(calculated of course).

When I tried to quickly find more info on the facade shot, a guy doing the calculation(he calculated 643 feet) had exit velo of 129.7 mph - easy to figure from bat impact to facade impact based on time.

IDK. I think guys like Mays, Mantle, Aaron while lighter in weight than today's bombers, were probably as strong and used heavier bats. Don Mattingly used a 34 oz/31 inch and Barry Bonds 34/31.5. Think Mickey was a 35/33. Babe was like 36/40.

It is a good question...

it wasn't just the HR - those doubles were all clobbered as well. They weren't down-the-line type doubles, they were over-the-CF's-head or deep-in-the-gap type doubles.

I can't remember the last time I saw someone get four hits of that magnitude in one game.

In comment 16516685 Jim in Fairfax said:

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In comment 16516610 section125 said: Quote: at Yankee Stadium in 1963 was mathematically calculated to have gone 620 feet(or would have) had it not hit the facade. They have the distance it traveled, how long it took to get there and how high it was at impact. It was 370 feet from home and 118 feet high at that point. IDK, but the math is the same now as then.... I agree with most that those distance seem absurd knowing what we know about athletes today. Math is the same. But GIGO

The facts are the facts Jim. Not sure what is garbage.

In comment 16516703 Del Shofner said:

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it wasn't just the HR - those doubles were all clobbered as well. They weren't down-the-line type doubles, they were over-the-CF's-head or deep-in-the-gap type doubles. I can't remember the last time I saw someone get four hits of that magnitude in one game.

Exactly - all 4 where barreled....

and the numbers may not be exactly as reported, but they are in the ballpark. The Mantle 565 ft HR sure as hell wasn't a 450 HR instead, maybe 530 or so sure. Also as reported above, the one that hit the facade can also be approximated now and shows it may be the same or farther.

total distance from contact to the ground via flight assumption. Nowadays, its bat contact to first contact of any spot where the ball hits in the stadium. Stops there. So Judge's ball last night was not only way above the LCF wall, that distance was calculated as well.

And there were home runs hit into those seats in the 1950s. So something has changed

full disclosure I was trying to find evidence to defend my take that Bernie Williams should be in the HOF but instead I just marveled at how good Mickey Mantle was. Mickey's CAREER OBP was 423! Ty Cobb was 433! Some dude named Billy Hamilton was 455. Joe D - 398. Tris Speaker - 428. Willy Mays - 387.

Kirby Puckett - 363. His slugging was 477. Puckett's lifetime OPS - 837.

Bernie Williams -381. His slugging was also 477. LIfetime 297 batting average. 287 HRs. He came awfully close to 300 and 300 HRs. BErnie had a LIFETIME 858 OPS.

BErnie is better than Puckett but we knew that already. Puckett is in the HOF.

Not to derail or miller. But Bernie was better than Puckett and his numbers stack up with some other HOFers, but I digress..

In comment 16516786 djm said:

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full disclosure I was trying to find evidence to defend my take that Bernie Williams should be in the HOF but instead I just marveled at how good Mickey Mantle was. Mickey's CAREER OBP was 423! Ty Cobb was 433! Some dude named Billy Hamilton was 455. Joe D - 398. Tris Speaker - 428. Willy Mays - 387. Kirby Puckett - 363. His slugging was 477. Puckett's lifetime OPS - 837. Bernie Williams -381. His slugging was also 477. LIfetime 297 batting average. 287 HRs. He came awfully close to 300 and 300 HRs. BErnie had a LIFETIME 858 OPS. BErnie is better than Puckett but we knew that already. Puckett is in the HOF. Not to derail or miller. But Bernie was better than Puckett and his numbers stack up with some other HOFers, but I digress..

Nice research. IMHO, Bernie, like Andy, is borderline HOF. I think Bernie was a better fielder than Kirby, too. Think both are victims of being Yankees...

Mantle stats in his prime were off the charts. I was shocked when I went through his baseball reference page.

His quote about Canseco having a 40/40 Season was classic. He said something like if someone had told me about it and I knew it was a big deal I would’ve done it.

As far as the Baseball HOF games I’ve given up trying to understand the selection process. Jim Rice but not Bernie? Puckett too

but on the Yankees he was just A star.

In comment 16516756 arniefez said:

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And there were home runs hit into those seats in the 1950s. So something has changed

Arnie I think LC was 455 or 458. CF behind the monuments was 461 or 463.(it was marked both distances not sure when it changed)
I guess it is a slight nitpick, but your point is well taken that while rare players were getting it out there.

In the 74/75 overhaul LF was brought in to 430 and I was there in the 1978 ALCS when Munson hit one well clear of the 430 spot.

In comment 16516827 section125 said:

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In the 74/75 overhaul LF was brought in to 430 and I was there in the 1978 ALCS when Munson hit one well clear of the 430 spot.

Thats awesome that you were there. I remember it well. It was a weekday day game. I was 10 got home from school and watched it. That bastard George Brett it 3 HR's that day right? Thurm got the last laugh though...

Judge and a few others are prodigious power hitters.
In my humble opinion, Mickey Mantle was the most gifted baseball player I’ve ever seen. He would have been the greatest of all time with better injury luck and a better understanding of the need to take care of his health.
Prior to Mickey, no male Mantle ever saw his 40th year. Mick assumed he’d be dead too early in life and partied his ass off way too much.

In comment 16516835 Stu11 said:

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In comment 16516827 section125 said: Quote: In the 74/75 overhaul LF was brought in to 430 and I was there in the 1978 ALCS when Munson hit one well clear of the 430 spot. Thats awesome that you were there. I remember it well. It was a weekday day game. I was 10 got home from school and watched it. That bastard George Brett it 3 HR's that day right? Thurm got the last laugh though...

Yes Brett did off Catfish Hunter, IIRC.
I was in the upper stands adjacent the foul pole - actually almost as high as the top. The ball was still going up when it past me... Micky Rivers was on 3rd and they were down 4-3. I was like, alright a sac fly!. But no, it kept going.
What was also crazy was Willie Wilson the KC CF was standing at the wall went the ball went over. Like Holy shit how'd he get there.

In comment 16516843 section125 said:

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In comment 16516835 Stu11 said: Quote: In comment 16516827 section125 said: Quote: In the 74/75 overhaul LF was brought in to 430 and I was there in the 1978 ALCS when Munson hit one well clear of the 430 spot. Thats awesome that you were there. I remember it well. It was a weekday day game. I was 10 got home from school and watched it. That bastard George Brett it 3 HR's that day right? Thurm got the last laugh though... Yes Brett did off Catfish Hunter, IIRC. I was in the upper stands adjacent the foul pole - actually almost as high as the top. The ball was still going up when it past me... Micky Rivers was on 3rd and they were down 4-3. I was like, alright a sac fly!. But no, it kept going. What was also crazy was Willie Wilson the KC CF was standing at the wall went the ball went over. Like Holy shit how'd he get there.

Yeah for all the talk and rightfully so about Guidry and his historic year that year, Catfish was some story. He had been hurt for a few years and dreadfully innefective. all of the sudden the 2nd half of the season his arm magically came to life and he went like 8-0 down the stretch until getting bombed the last day of the season by the Indians to force a 1 game playoff. evetually won the clincher vs the Dodgers in the WS. They don't win it without him finding the fountain of youth for a few months.

as long as we're digressing, the dimensions at the Polo Grounds were crazy -

Left field: 279 ft; Left-center: 450 ft; Center field: 483 ft; Right-center: 449 ft; Right field: 258 ft

258 and 279 down the lines, and 483 down the middle, and even left and right center were 450.

Anyone here ever see a HR (other than inside-the-park) to dead center at the Polo Grounds? I'm too young to have seen the baseball Giants there, but I did see the Mets there a couple of times before Shea was built.

the time I got to go the YS(1965).

In comment 16516835 Stu11 said:

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In comment 16516827 section125 said: Quote: In the 74/75 overhaul LF was brought in to 430 and I was there in the 1978 ALCS when Munson hit one well clear of the 430 spot. Thats awesome that you were there. I remember it well. It was a weekday day game. I was 10 got home from school and watched it. That bastard George Brett it 3 HR's that day right? Thurm got the last laugh though...

This youtube clip has the WPIX call of Thurman's HR with Bill White and Phil Rizzuto. Phil gives it a double "Holy Cow" (with some prompting from White).

If Munson could hit one 430 or so with that swing, not hard to imagine Mantle at full bore going a whole lot further.

youtube - ( New Window )

In comment 16516880 section125 said:

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the time I got to go the YS(1965).

BTW, my 1st was Mel Stottlemyre's inside the park GS vs the Sox and Jim Monbouquette. And that one did make it out to the monuments.

There was an analysis of Mantle and Ruth's home runs on a cable show.

They took both their bats and the balls of the period and attempted to recreate their home runs.

They used a batting machine and a pitching machine.

They were able to replicate both of their home runs.

It was a matter of ball speed, bat speed, the angle of the bat, and more importantly the size and weight of the bats.

Ruth's bat was enormous and hit the ball farther than Mantle's bat.

The bats were larger but more significantly the weight was distributed differently.

Ruth's in particular was long and very heavy.

Ruth's bat, measured 36 inches in length and weighed 44 ounces.

Mantle's bat was 35” (34 ounces).

Both bat's barrels and handle diameters were larger than present-day bats.

A standard bat today is 34"and 32 ounces. Judges bat is 35" and 33 ounces and is the heaviest of contemporary batters.

The study concluded that Mantle and Ruth could have hit home runs over 550 feet.

One side note they also tested present-day balls vs. the historic balls and they were able to exceed 600' with some of the shots.

In comment 16516882 shyster said:

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In comment 16516835 Stu11 said: Quote: In comment 16516827 section125 said: Quote: In the 74/75 overhaul LF was brought in to 430 and I was there in the 1978 ALCS when Munson hit one well clear of the 430 spot. Thats awesome that you were there. I remember it well. It was a weekday day game. I was 10 got home from school and watched it. That bastard George Brett it 3 HR's that day right? Thurm got the last laugh though... This youtube clip has the WPIX call of Thurman's HR with Bill White and Phil Rizzuto. Phil gives it a double "Holy Cow" (with some prompting from White). If Munson could hit one 430 or so with that swing, not hard to imagine Mantle at full bore going a whole lot further. youtube - ( New Window )

Wait, was that Roy White on third and not Micky Rivers?

In comment 16516896 section125 said:

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Wait, was that Roy White on third and not Micky Rivers?

Yes, Rivers actually left the game early for Paul Blair.

Blair made the first out of the 8th, Roy White singled, then Thurman.

In comment 16516888 section125 said:

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In comment 16516880 section125 said: Quote: the time I got to go the YS(1965). BTW, my 1st was Mel Stottlemyre's inside the park GS vs the Sox and Jim Monbouquette. And that one did make it out to the monuments.

I remember that too. Monbo's first name was Bill, not Jim, though.

1. 2002 Bonds (12.7 WAR)
2. 2001 Bonds (12.5 WAR)
3. 2004 Bonds (11.9 WAR)

4. 1956 Mantle (11.5 WAR)
5. 1957 Mantle (11.4 WAR)
6. 2022 Judge (11.2 WAR)

So besides the years where Bonds broke the sport with the help of PED use, there's an argument that Judge and Mantle peaked higher than any other player since integration.

Mantle putting up those numbers in back-to-back seasons, while winning the WS in '56? Just a surreal player. Can't even imagine how good he'd be if he was healthy for his career.

Judge is also a special talent. Ohtani has deservedly received a ton of credit for being a special player, but a healthy Judge is right there with him as the best player in the game. Great to see him get hot again after a rough start.

In comment 16516907 Del Shofner said:

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In comment 16516888 section125 said: Quote: In comment 16516880 section125 said: Quote: the time I got to go the YS(1965). BTW, my 1st was Mel Stottlemyre's inside the park GS vs the Sox and Jim Monbouquette. And that one did make it out to the monuments. I remember that too. Monbo's first name was Bill, not Jim, though.

You are right....

In comment 16516904 shyster said:

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In comment 16516896 section125 said: Quote: Wait, was that Roy White on third and not Micky Rivers? Yes, Rivers actually left the game early for Paul Blair. Blair made the first out of the 8th, Roy White singled, then Thurman.

Ha, I guess subsequent 46 years of beer consumption has killed off my brain cells!
Thanks to all for correcting my memories!

Park was the only one to ever have its bullpens in the field of play. Here’s a long view of the visitor’s bullpen. It’s in the right center of the photo with a slanted roof:




Here’s a closeup view:

In comment 16516973 Jim in Fairfax said:
[quote] Park was the only one to ever have its bullpens in the field of play. Here’s a long view of the visitor’s bullpen. It’s in the right center of the photo with a slanted roof:




Here’s a closeup view:

I was at a grammar school outing in 1962 for a day game and we had seats directly above the bullpen in LC. I remember Frank Thomas of the Mets hitting a homerun almost directly above the 447 marker just to the left of the bullpen into the Upper Deck above us. That was a monster clout. Would of had to have been 500 feet. But it was 62, the Mets and it pretty much went unnoticed.

hit by Babe Ruth near a college / race track that was reported to travel close to 600 feet… or something like that?

In comment 16516756 arniefez said:

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And there were home runs hit into those seats in the 1950s. So something has changed

This. The original Yankee Stadium was a BIG ball park in left center and center, not so much down the line. I Would not question the length of Mantles HRs, they were majestic

In comment 16517137 M.S. said:

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hit by Babe Ruth near a college / race track that was reported to travel close to 600 feet… or something like that?

.
yup - ( New Window )

Del Shofner!

In comment 16517143 Sec 103 said:

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In comment 16516756 arniefez said: Quote: And there were home runs hit into those seats in the 1950s. So something has changed This. The original Yankee Stadium was a BIG ball park in left center and center, not so much down the line. I Would not question the length of Mantles HRs, they were majestic

Carlton Fiske called LC in Yankee Stadium "death valley" and that was when it was only 430 ft...

In comment 16516851 Del Shofner said:

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as long as we're digressing, the dimensions at the Polo Grounds were crazy - Left field: 279 ft; Left-center: 450 ft; Center field: 483 ft; Right-center: 449 ft; Right field: 258 ft 258 and 279 down the lines, and 483 down the middle, and even left and right center were 450. Went there many times. Willie Mays made a famous catch in dead center with his back facing home plate. Anyone here ever see a HR (other than inside-the-park) to dead center at the Polo Grounds? I'm too young to have seen the baseball Giants there, but I did see the Mets there a couple of times before Shea was built.

In comment 16516686 section125 said:

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In comment 16516633 UConn4523 said: Quote: my guess is the speed (exit velocity) is the big differentiator. How many 120mph HRs were hit back then? Hard to see it was very many, but I also don’t know how corked bats, balls with other materials, etc could effect that. I have recently become skeptical of these early supposed bombs just seeing what Stanton and Judge do. I do think the ball was more lively, in fact we know this. Last night Jeff Nelson called BS on the 467 feet. He thought it was much farther(calculated of course). When I tried to quickly find more info on the facade shot, a guy doing the calculation(he calculated 643 feet) had exit velo of 129.7 mph - easy to figure from bat impact to facade impact based on time. IDK. I think guys like Mays, Mantle, Aaron while lighter in weight than today's bombers, were probably as strong and used heavier bats. Don Mattingly used a 34 oz/31 inch and Barry Bonds 34/31.5. Think Mickey was a 35/33. Babe was like 36/40. It is a good question...

You have the oz. and inches inverted on those bats. The first # is inches.

In comment 16520027 Matt M. said:

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In comment 16516686 section125 said: Quote: In comment 16516633 UConn4523 said: Quote: my guess is the speed (exit velocity) is the big differentiator. How many 120mph HRs were hit back then? Hard to see it was very many, but I also don’t know how corked bats, balls with other materials, etc could effect that. I have recently become skeptical of these early supposed bombs just seeing what Stanton and Judge do. I do think the ball was more lively, in fact we know this. Last night Jeff Nelson called BS on the 467 feet. He thought it was much farther(calculated of course). When I tried to quickly find more info on the facade shot, a guy doing the calculation(he calculated 643 feet) had exit velo of 129.7 mph - easy to figure from bat impact to facade impact based on time. IDK. I think guys like Mays, Mantle, Aaron while lighter in weight than today's bombers, were probably as strong and used heavier bats. Don Mattingly used a 34 oz/31 inch and Barry Bonds 34/31.5. Think Mickey was a 35/33. Babe was like 36/40. It is a good question... You have the oz. and inches inverted on those bats. The first # is inches.

Ha ha - you are correct. 34 in 31 oz. Jeez

In comment 16520032 section125 said:

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In comment 16520027 Matt M. said: Quote: In comment 16516686 section125 said: Quote: In comment 16516633 UConn4523 said: Quote: my guess is the speed (exit velocity) is the big differentiator. How many 120mph HRs were hit back then? Hard to see it was very many, but I also don’t know how corked bats, balls with other materials, etc could effect that. I have recently become skeptical of these early supposed bombs just seeing what Stanton and Judge do. I do think the ball was more lively, in fact we know this. Last night Jeff Nelson called BS on the 467 feet. He thought it was much farther(calculated of course). When I tried to quickly find more info on the facade shot, a guy doing the calculation(he calculated 643 feet) had exit velo of 129.7 mph - easy to figure from bat impact to facade impact based on time. IDK. I think guys like Mays, Mantle, Aaron while lighter in weight than today's bombers, were probably as strong and used heavier bats. Don Mattingly used a 34 oz/31 inch and Barry Bonds 34/31.5. Think Mickey was a 35/33. Babe was like 36/40. It is a good question... You have the oz. and inches inverted on those bats. The first # is inches. Ha ha - you are correct. 34 in 31 oz. Jeez

I was picturing Mattingly with a 31 in. bat.