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Are You Comfortable Hoping for Bad Outcomes?

christian : 5/18/2024 12:43 pm
It's a fascinating topic to me as a fan in general.

During games I'm always rooting for the team to win, no matter the cost or benefit. Before and after the game, I'm more reasoned on what outcome is objectively best.

For instance, I 100% reject the hocus pocus notion that trying hard and winning meaningless games magically carries over to the next year. Or that treating meaningless games as exhibitions solicits a magical curse from the gods.

This year, I can't shake the idea that I would rather Daniel Jones unequivocally show he's not the answer, than tread water. I have no problem acknowledging I would rather the team go 3-14 than 7-10.

I'm perfectly comfortable with hoping players or coaches I don't think will ever be good, just prove it once and for all and move on.

Once the games start, I'll be rooting for Jones every second of every game. But between the games, I admit I have no confidence in him and hope he gets benched.

Anyone else feel that way?
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and to be clear hiring the head coach is the most important  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 4:21 pm : link
decision a gm weighs in on heavily so that's not as much of a backhanded compliment as it may seem. daboll is probably the most impressive thing on schoen's resume so far, especially given what happened with flores a few days later.
 
christian : 5/22/2024 4:21 pm : link
It's a big if, but *if* some part of the calculation in letting players like Barkley, Feliciano, Love, Jackson, McKinney go was a product of resource management -- that's where the over allocation to Jones is grounds for debate.

If the operating expectations at QB are for a non-durable, limited passer, with good wheels, and a placeholder for what's next -- I give you Tyrod Taylor ladies and gentlemen.
...  
christian : 5/22/2024 4:23 pm : link
In comment 16522405 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
All fair--I'm super high on Daboll, down on Schoen. But not fatal, as you said.

Gettleman was a wreck, thrashing around with absolutely no cohesive strategy. I don't view Schoen the same way.

not to open a pandora's box but im pretty sure the only big difference between gettleman and schoen is daboll and light years better pr savvy.


And I'd go as far as giving Gettleman the lead in the drafting department.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 4:27 pm : link
In comment 16522408 christian said:
Quote:
It's a big if, but *if* some part of the calculation in letting players like Barkley, Feliciano, Love, Jackson, McKinney go was a product of resource management -- that's where the over allocation to Jones is grounds for debate.

If the operating expectations at QB are for a non-durable, limited passer, with good wheels, and a placeholder for what's next -- I give you Tyrod Taylor ladies and gentlemen.


jackson is still a free agent so it's not money that's stopping them. feliciano got almost the minimum last year and was on the market for a long time. they signed ashawn for twice as much after he'd signed. they paid campbell and slayton (non captain) as much as love and waller would have covered barkley. letting those guys was choices more than out of budget.

mckinney got paid but he's the one i think they were most correct to pass on paying. he is now the 12th highest paid DB including corners and i dont think his impact is anywhere near that.
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 4:29 pm : link
In comment 16522411 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16522405 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


All fair--I'm super high on Daboll, down on Schoen. But not fatal, as you said.

Gettleman was a wreck, thrashing around with absolutely no cohesive strategy. I don't view Schoen the same way.

not to open a pandora's box but im pretty sure the only big difference between gettleman and schoen is daboll and light years better pr savvy.



And I'd go as far as giving Gettleman the lead in the drafting department.


it's close, gettleman had the 2 big hits with dex/thomas, schoen has had fewer misses.

not huge sample sizes but i think overall both would be considered average. schoen needs some year 3+ guys to breakout like dex/thomas, if they do then his track record will look better quickly.
RE: RE: ....  
BrettNYG10 : 5/22/2024 4:31 pm : link
In comment 16522405 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16522395 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


All fair--I'm super high on Daboll, down on Schoen. But not fatal, as you said.

Gettleman was a wreck, thrashing around with absolutely no cohesive strategy. I don't view Schoen the same way.



not to open a pandora's box but im pretty sure the only big difference between gettleman and schoen is daboll and light years better pr savvy.


I wouldn't go that far. Gettleman did so much dumb shit: drafting Barkley at 2, Solder, Golladay, Toney, etc.

Just a consistent comedy of errors. I don't think Schoen has had consistent stupidity the way Gettleman did.
 
christian : 5/22/2024 4:40 pm : link
I think as in any business you make the this position over that position hard choices as a product of your resources.

In a "if resources weren't as constrained" world, I suspect they keep Slayton and Love, they sign Robinson and Keep Felciano, they acquire Burns and keep McKinney, they sign Singletary and keep Barkley.

I don't have access to all my piggies and fingers at the moment, but I imagine the sum of the guarantees of the players they lost + the guarantees on Taylor in 23 + 24 is south of 82.
RE: RE: RE: ....  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 4:42 pm : link
In comment 16522417 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
In comment 16522405 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16522395 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


All fair--I'm super high on Daboll, down on Schoen. But not fatal, as you said.

Gettleman was a wreck, thrashing around with absolutely no cohesive strategy. I don't view Schoen the same way.



not to open a pandora's box but im pretty sure the only big difference between gettleman and schoen is daboll and light years better pr savvy.



I wouldn't go that far. Gettleman did so much dumb shit: drafting Barkley at 2, Solder, Golladay, Toney, etc.

Just a consistent comedy of errors. I don't think Schoen has had consistent stupidity the way Gettleman did.


again not to start a whole thing bc my intent isnt to endorse gettleman's failed era but golladay and waller by the end wont look so different.

solder was more expensive but at least gave them a decent season or two, unlike glowinski. will hernandez looks like chris snee compared to josh ezeudu.

toney was a disaster -- but the trade down got them the 7th pick that could have been garrett wilson or chris olave or kyle hamilton. instead it was neal, who at this point may end up a bigger miss than ereck flowers forget barkley.

so again not looking to whitewash any of DGs failures, more just looking to level set schoen. he's been better but mostly because of daboll getting better play out of players he inherited like lawrence, jones, love, slayton, thomas. not great personnel decisions he made.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 4:44 pm : link
In comment 16522424 christian said:
Quote:
I think as in any business you make the this position over that position hard choices as a product of your resources.

In a "if resources weren't as constrained" world, I suspect they keep Slayton and Love, they sign Robinson and Keep Felciano, they acquire Burns and keep McKinney, they sign Singletary and keep Barkley.

I don't have access to all my piggies and fingers at the moment, but I imagine the sum of the guarantees of the players they lost + the guarantees on Taylor in 23 + 24 is south of 82.


last year keeping love would have cost less or = against the cap than campbell, ashawn, slayton. they chose those 3 players over him.

feliciano played for $2m. any team can afford a 2m player at pretty much any time if they are motivated to keep that player.
treating meaningless games as exhibitions solicits a magical curse  
djm : 5/22/2024 4:47 pm : link
that's not what fans should be concerned with. What should concern you is when the team flat out quits and or doesn't display a shred of staying power or talent while losing a shit load of games. Losing a shit load of games is never a good thing. YEs it can lead to a high pick and at times the bad losing season isn't going to indicate concerning play, specially early on in the process, but losing 8 games in a row and losing those games badly indicates one thing and one thing only: the team is fucking horrible. Seeing that pattern in year 2 is rarely if ever a path that leads to better success.
RE: RE: …  
christian : 5/22/2024 5:00 pm : link
In comment 16522428 Eric on Li said:
Quote:

last year keeping love would have cost less or = against the cap than campbell, ashawn, slayton. they chose those 3 players over him.

feliciano played for $2m. any team can afford a 2m player at pretty much any time if they are motivated to keep that player.

They prioritized 4 players in 5-6 AAV range more than Love. In a less resources contained environment maybe Love is a 5th. They spent the vet minimum on a backup center maybe they spend +1M.

You spend your money on something. This is definitely a benefit of the doubt exercise.

If it wasn't a resource calculus, the alternative portends much worse.
RE: treating meaningless games as exhibitions solicits a magical curse  
christian : 5/22/2024 5:02 pm : link
In comment 16522430 djm said:
Quote:
that's not what fans should be concerned with.


What would have been better for the Giants, DeVito starts week 18 and reestablishes his confidence and standing with the staff in a loss, or current New York Jet Tyrod Taylor leads the Giants to a win?
RE: RE: RE: …  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 5:09 pm : link
In comment 16522440 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16522428 Eric on Li said:


Quote:



last year keeping love would have cost less or = against the cap than campbell, ashawn, slayton. they chose those 3 players over him.

feliciano played for $2m. any team can afford a 2m player at pretty much any time if they are motivated to keep that player.


They prioritized 4 players in 5-6 AAV range more than Love. In a less resources contained environment maybe Love is a 5th. They spent the vet minimum on a backup center maybe they spend +1M.

You spend your money on something. This is definitely a benefit of the doubt exercise.

If it wasn't a resource calculus, the alternative portends much worse.


my problem with schoen (as articulated above) is that he has made some bad choices. i am not absolving him of poor choices just because there was a very modest budget constraint (or giving him the benefit of doubt that the 5th try would have been the charm).

they werent event negotiating with love after FA opened and as far as i know never made him an offer, this wasnt a situation of his price going beyond their budget. he got less than they'd offered him in november, they changed their mind on him for whatever reason.

my argument isn't entirely love either, they have let a lot of guys THEY named captains walk relatively uncontested. at minimum doesn't that mean their choices of captains weren't so hot?
......  
BrettNYG10 : 5/22/2024 6:02 pm : link
I'm all for some spicey takes, Eric. I directionally disagree--I think Waller was less of a mistake than you do, for example--but agree with the larger point on Daboll vs. Schoen, for sure.
Before I read your take I thought the answer was obvious for me  
BestFeature : 5/22/2024 6:19 pm : link
Originally I was going to say yes. But I will ammend it to yes as long as I know the team is out of it. So if we start the season 0-5, I'm comfortable rooting for 1-16. I stop watching because I can't watch 12 games rooting against my team I just punt the season and hope they're better next year. But I'm at least somewhat optimistic game 1 and will tune in. Frankly, we're supposed to suck this year but is the talent really worse than it was two seasons ago if Daniel Jones is fully healthy? I don't think so. People think we'll suck with DJ and I really would love the DJ era to end after this season but we made the playoffs and won a game with DJ and worse pass rushers and worse WRs. So I know I'll be there game 1 hoping for a surprise season. If they lose a lot to start I will hope that they go 1-16.
 
christian : 5/22/2024 6:28 pm : link
The players choose the captains, I think? My guess is that's based on tenure and past performance. Not a reflection of how management feels.

What's concerning is how few of his own hits Schoen has. Okereke, Thibs, Banks, Pinnock? With good signals from Robinson, Hyatt, and McFadden?
RE: RE: ....  
ThomasG : 5/22/2024 10:40 pm : link
In comment 16522405 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16522395 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


All fair--I'm super high on Daboll, down on Schoen. But not fatal, as you said.

Gettleman was a wreck, thrashing around with absolutely no cohesive strategy. I don't view Schoen the same way.



not to open a pandora's box but im pretty sure the only big difference between gettleman and schoen is daboll and light years better pr savvy.


A clueless take.

Gettleman was an utter moron, whether he fell ass-backwards into Thomas and Dex or not. He had a ridiculously bad free agency record, nonexistent roster building strategies and poor transaction timing, and his lack of keeping up with NFL trends was as bad as any GM in any sport in the past century.

Schoen may fail and not be able to build a winner, but Gettleman had no chance. None. And it was obvious his first couple of months in the saddle with Solder coming on board and wasting that immensely valued draft slot on a RB. Nonsensical contract negotiation processes with Leonard Williams, several overvalued veteran WRs and sticking us with Daniel Jones only dragged out his idiocy.

If Schoen dies on the vine, it isn’t because his general thought-processes about football every year were flawed. It is predominately because he made an F-graded devision on a C-graded QB that you thought was an A-graded contract.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 10:48 pm : link
In comment 16522505 christian said:
Quote:
The players choose the captains, I think? My guess is that's based on tenure and past performance. Not a reflection of how management feels.

What's concerning is how few of his own hits Schoen has. Okereke, Thibs, Banks, Pinnock? With good signals from Robinson, Hyatt, and McFadden?


i think the first year it was a vote last year when they named 10 the coaches chose.

id add belinger as a hit. they havent cut any of their draft picks yet so they all have a chance. 14/18 have started at least a game. riley, owens, beavers, gray the 4 that havent.
actually looks like they voted last year  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 10:55 pm : link
dont think it changes the point much, the guys who got voted were the guys they paid the most but then very quickly decided they didnt want to pay them. 3/10 from 2022 are still here, 5/10 from 2023 (assuming waller retires).
Giants vote team captains for 2023 season - ( New Window )
...  
christian : 5/22/2024 11:02 pm : link
He's definitely out of the Gettleman shadow. He got spotted two All Pro lineman, 2 top 7 picks, and several no-question NFL players he's let walk. Year three Gettleman rightfully was get killed. Schoen is in his window today.
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 5/22/2024 11:06 pm : link
In comment 16522749 christian said:
Quote:
He's definitely out of the Gettleman shadow. He got spotted two All Pro lineman, 2 top 7 picks, and several no-question NFL players he's let walk. Year three Gettleman rightfully was get killed. Schoen is in his window today.


he and daboll are both centerstage, thats why im hoping for as many good outcomes for both of them as possible. if any change is necessary after this year it's going to come with a lot more breakage than any single bad contract or bad draft pick.
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